MLB GPP Plays: Friday, July 17th
GPPs are very different from your cash games and you use a different strategy with them. In our GPPs we are not interested in safe plays, since GPPs are all about UPSIDE. We want players who can explode, as all-or-nothing type players can become GPP gold, and your value players are just as important as your star players. You need your players to have huge nights in order to take down these big tournaments.
My goal is to provide players who will be under-owned and/or have that big game upside you are looking for. I will also try to find as much value as I possibly can. Now, let’s get to the MLB GPP plays!
STARTING PITCHERS
Jose Fernandez, Miami Marlins – No need to get cute tonight, Jose Fernandez is the best pitcher on the board and you are going to want to have at least some exposure to him in your tournament play. Fernandez is downright filthy and I doubt the Philadelphia Phillies even score off of him this evening. Look for another dominant performance from the 22 year old Cuban in this one.
I had a hard time narrowing down which pitcher would be my second option in tournaments and the truth is I plan to have exposure to a bunch of them, so I figured I would talk about them all. Lance Lynn will face a very weak New York Mets offense, and at home where he has been incredible (1.90 ERA, .226 OPP BA, with 51 Ks in 52 IP) this season. The St. Louis Cardinals continue to win games, but their offense is far from scary these days. Noah Syndergaard has been brilliant recently and he has massive strikeout potential in this game. Anibal Sanchez is in a prime spot for a win, and he should rack up plenty of punch-outs along the way at home to the Baltimore Orioles tonight. Both Julio Teheran and Drew Hutchison have big game upside and they have both been dominant at home in 2015.
Other Pitchers to Target – Sonny Gray, Masahiro Tanaka, James Shields, Trevor Bauer
CATCHER
Stephen Vogt, Oakland A’s – Ervin Santana is a fly ball pitcher who has issues with left-handed batters. Stephen Vogt has been light’s out versus righties (.365 wOBA) this season and he has huge upside in this matchup.
Derek Norris, San Diego Padres – Throughout his career (ignoring the reverse trend in 2015), Colorado Rockies starter Jorge De La Rosa has really struggled on the road and versus right-handed batters. Derek Norris hammers lefties and he has a great price across the industry.
Other Catchers to Target – Buster Posey, Evan Gattis, Salvador Perez, Jacob Realmuto
FIRST BASE
Prince Fielder, Texas Rangers – Prince Fielder is having a great bounce-back season for the Texas Rangers and it is hard to ignore his numbers versus righties (.381 BA, .441 OBP) in 2015. Collin McHugh has been very hittable this season and he has really struggled at home with a 5.74 ERA. Look for Fielder to remain hot in this one.
Chris Carter, Houston Astros – Martin Perez will be making his first Major League start since his return from Tommy John surgery tonight against the Houston Astros. Perez was roughed up in the Minors during his rehab starts and right-handed batters hit him hard (.412 BAA at Double-A, .350 BAA at Triple-A). Chris Carter is an all-or-nothing GPP option, but he has huge power and he has hit Perez very well in 13 career at-bats (.462 BA with a double, two homers and four RBIs).
Other First Basemen to Target – Mark Teixeira, Kendrys Morales, Adam LaRoche, Mike Morse
SECOND BASE
Jose Altuve, Houston Astros – Martin Perez is my “Gas Can of the Night”, so I am very big on the Astros’ right-handed bats in this game. I should also point out that the Texas Rangers have the worst bullpen in the American League, so Houston should continue to score after they knock Perez out of the game. Altuve rakes against lefties (.404 wOBA) and he is my top play at second base tonight.
Neil Walker, Pittsburgh Pirates – Neil Walker is on a heater. He has now produced hits in 15 of his last 16 contests and he is hitting .370 in the month of July. Walker will face a homer-prone pitcher in Mike Fiers whom he has had plenty of success against (8-16, .500 BA with four extra base hits).
Other Second Basemen to Target – Jason Kipnis, Ben Zobrist, Scooter Gennett, Jedd Gyorko
THIRD BASE
Nolan Arenado, Colorado Rockies – Despite fantastic numbers on the season (24 HR, fourth in NL and 70 RBIs tied for first in NL), I expect Arenado to be highly under-owned in tournaments tonight for several reasons – he is very expensive and he will be facing an ace in the world’s worst hitting environment. But if you dig a little deeper, you will see that Arenado has hit three home runs (12 AB) in Petco Park already this season and he has owned James Shields (7-for-11, .636 BA with a double and 3 homers) in a small sample size.
David Freese, Los Angeles Angels – Wade Miley is not a gas can, but he has not been very good this season. He has struggled mightily on the road this year, and righties have done most of the damage to his ratios. Vegas likes the Angels offense tonight and I agree. Freese is a cheap way to get some exposure to that offense, and he has home run upside in this matchup.
Other Third Basemen to Target – Alex Rodriguez, Adrian Beltre, Matt Duffy, Casey McGehee
SHORTSTOP
Carlos Correa, Houston Astros – Correa is a no-brainer at shortstop tonight. Correa has blasted lefties in his young career and I love his potential tonight against Martin Perez. Correa will be very popular in tournaments, but fading him is a huge risk. I think you need to have at least some exposure to him in your GPPs.
If you are like me, you love to punt shortstop and load up elsewhere. Here are a few value options I will be using tonight. Alcides Escobar (riding a 10-game hitting streak) against whipping boy John Danks. Adeiny Hechavarria (.361 wOBA VS LHP) is in play versus the very hittable Adam Morgan. Jung-Ho Kang has long-ball upside against Mike Fiers in a great hitter’s park.
Other Shortstops to Target – Troy Tulowitzki, Jose Reyes, Xander Bogaerts
OUTFIELDERS
Andrew McCutchen, Pittsburgh Pirates – With base knocks in 13 of his last 14 contests, it is safe to say that Andrew McCutchen is seeing the ball well at the plate. Not to mention he homered in the All-Star game. With his current hot streak, McCutchen has become quite expensive on most sites, which should keep his ownership low in GPPs. Mike Fiers is a homer-prone pitcher and McCutchen has hit him hard (6-for-16, .375 BA with 4 HR and 9 RBIs) in his career.
Justin Upton, San Diego Padres – Upton is a frustrating player to own and he is not a guy you can trust in your cash games. However, with his combination of power and speed, he is a great upside play in tournaments. With Jorge De La Rosa’s struggles versus righties, Upton has double-dong potential this evening.
Josh Reddick, Oakland A’s – Speaking of multi-homer upside, Josh Reddick has big potential in his matchup against Ervin Santana. Reddick is at his best when facing a right-handed pitcher (.325 BA, 12 doubles, 10 HR and 42 RBIs) at home (.308 BA), and I love his upside tonight.
Other Outfielders to Target – Bryce Harper, Carlos Gomez, Lorenzo Cain, Hunter Pence, Chris Young, Melky Cabrera, Billy Burns, Kevin Kiermaier