MLB GPP Plays: Friday, September 25th
GPPs are very different from your cash games and you use a different strategy with them. In our GPPs we are not interested in safe plays, since GPPs are all about UPSIDE. We want players who can explode, as all-or-nothing type players can become GPP gold, and your value players are just as important as your star players. You need your players to have huge nights in order to take down these big tournaments.
My goal is to provide players who will be under-owned and/or have that big game upside you are looking for. I will also try to find as much value as I possibly can. Now, let’s get to the MLB GPP plays!
STARTING PITCHER
Jose Fernandez, Miami Marlins – I doubt we see Fernandez go more than six innings or pass the 100 pitch plateau tonight. However, he can do a lot of damage against this Atlanta Braves team even with these restrictions. The Braves are one of the worst offensive teams in baseball and even though they don’t whiff a lot, I expect six dominant innings from the kid tonight with at least a strikeout per inning.
Carlos Martinez, St. Louis Cardinals – Martinez went through a rough patch for about a month and there was talk of arm fatigue, but he has bounced back nicely in his last two starts (14.2 IP, 3 ER, 15 Ks). The Milwaukee Brewers offense is a shell of their former self with the trade of Carlos Gomez and current injuries to both Ryan Braun and Jonathan Lucroy. Martinez has owned the Brewers this season (0.60 ERA, .167 BAA with 17 Ks in 15 IP) and I expect him to mow them down again tonight.
Other Pitchers to Target – Noah Syndergaard, Jordan Zimmermann, Rich Hill, Rubby De La Rosa
CATCHER
Tom Murphy, Colorado Rockies – The 24-year-old Murphy has exploded in his last three games with six hits, including three home runs and eight runs batted in. Murphy hit for power throughout his Minor League career so his bat is definitely legit. With his upside and his inexpensive salary across the industry, Murphy is a very strong play in GPPs this evening.
Jason Castro, Houston Astros – Castro hasn’t had a lot of at-bats recently, but I expect him to be in the lineup tonight versus Yovani Gallardo. Castro is a cheap source of power and he has hit Gallardo very well over the years (.350 BA, .435 OBP in 23 plate appearances). If punting catcher is your thing, Castro makes a fine choice.
Other Catchers to Target – Yasmani Grandal, Russell Martin, John Jaso, Tyler Flowers
FIRST BASE
Adrian Gonzalez, Los Angeles Dodgers – The Los Angeles Dodgers will be the team of choice tonight as they head into Coors Field to face the very hittable David Hale (6.32 ERA), in the best hitting environment in baseball. A-Gon has been a beast throughout his career against right-handed pitching and even though he will be very popular, I don’t think you should fade Gonzalez in tournaments.
Justin Bour, Miami Marlins – Jerad Eickhoff has struggled with hitters from the left side of the plate (.382 wOBA) and I expect that to continue tonight in Miami. Bour does his best work versus right-handed pitching (19 HR, 54 RBIs and a .341 wOBA) and he has the home run upside we require in our tournaments. Dollar for dollar, Bour is my top GPP play at first base.
Other First Basemen to Target – David Ortiz, Justin Morneau, Albert Pujols
SECOND BASE
Daniel Murphy, New York Mets – I have been writing about Murphy almost daily for well over a week now and he continues to be under-owned in large field tournaments due to his so-called lack of power. Murphy is currently riding a seven-game hitting streak, which includes four multi-hit performances, along with three doubles, two home runs and six RBIs. Murphy is once again one of my favorite plays tonight and I don’t expect him to be popular.
Brian Dozier, Minnesota Twins – Matt Boyd is a talented young pitcher and at some point it is all going to come together for him, but until that happens we need to take advantage of his struggles. Right-handed hitters have smacked Boyd around (.305 BAA. .383 wOBA) and we know Dozier is a notorious lefty killer.
Other Second Basemen to Target – Dee Gordon, Jason Kipnis, Chase Utley
THIRD BASE
Trevor Plouffe, Minnesota Twins – Thanks in large part to Miguel Sano, Plouffe tends to fly under the radar even when the Twins are in a great spot to produce. Like his teammate Brian Dozier, Plouffe punishes southpaws. Once the Twins send Boyd to the showers, they can start lighting up the Tigers’ atrocious bullpen.
Derek Dietrich, Miami Marlins – I am not really in love with any third baseman tonight and I may just punt the position in a few GPP lineups, and Dietrich is the perfect punt play. He has the splits in his favor, has home run upside and he will hit in the middle of the Marlins lineup. Punt away!
Other Third Basemen to Target – Nolan Arenado, Alex Rodriguez, Justin Turner
SHORTSTOP
Corey Seager, Los Angeles Dodgers – David Hale has posted terrible numbers at home this season (6.41 ERA with a .318 BAA) and lefties are doing a ton of damage against him (.310 BAA, .396 wOBA). Seager has been a stud against right-handed pitching so far in his young career (.385 BA, .475 wOBA), and I love his potential in this game.
Asdrubal Cabrera, Tampa Bay Rays – I am a firm believer that you can either hit the knuckleball or you can’t, and Asdrubal Cabrera certainly can. Cabrera is starting to heat up again (five hits in his last two games, including two doubles and a home run), and he is one of the few Rays who has had some success against R.A. Dickey (6-16, .375 BA, .474 OBP with a double, triple, two homers and five RBIs).
Other Shortstops to Target – Carlos Correa, Francisco Lindor, Jose Reyes
OUTFIELD
Corey Dickerson, Colorado Rockies – Corey Dickerson seems to be a forgotten man in the Rockies lineup. Before the injuries took over this season, Dickerson was absolutely murdering right-handed pitching. He has started to look healthy again of late with five hits in his last two games, including a double and a home run. Dickerson will soon explode and his price will skyrocket. The time to jump on board is now!
Los Angeles Dodgers Outfield – David Hale is the top pitcher to pick on tonight and the Los Angeles Dodgers outfield presents us with huge upside at a very moderate price. After Hale leaves the game the Dodgers will continue to pile up the runs against that awful Colorado Rockies bullpen.
Detroit Tigers Outfield – Mike Pelfrey is another pitcher I love to target hitters against. Pelfrey has a very low strikeout rate and he has allowed both lefties and righties to hit him hard throughout his career. J.D. Martinez has multi-homer upside, and both Anthony Gose and Rajai Davis have multi-hit/run/stolen base potential in this matchup.
Other Outfielders to Target – Bryce Harper, Carlos Gonzalez, Curtis Granderson, Jason Heyward, Aaron Hicks, Josh Reddick