MLB GPP Plays: Tuesday, August 30th
Every Tuesday and Friday I am going to give you my top tournament plays for all Daily Fantasy Baseball GPPs (guaranteed prize pool). GPPs are a general term used across the industry for your big money tournaments.
GPPs are very different from your cash games and you use a different strategy with them. In our GPPs we are not interested in safe plays, since GPPs are all about UPSIDE. We want players who can explode, as all-or-nothing type players can become GPP gold, and your value players are just as important as your star players. You need your players to have huge nights in order to take down these big tournaments.
My goal is to provide players who will be under-owned and have that big game upside you are looking for. I will also try to find as much value as I possibly can. Now, let’s get to the MLB GPP plays!
STARTING PITCHERS
Max Scherzer, Washington Nationals – Max Scherzer is once again the top dog in all formats tonight. The Washington Nationals’ ace is coming off an outstanding performance against the Baltimore Orioles in which he went eight shutout innings, while striking out 10, and we could see a similar performance this evening. The Philadelphia Phillies remain one of the weakest lineups in baseball against right handed pitching, sitting 28th in wOBA and 29th in wRC +, while striking out at an elevated rate. Scherzer won’t come cheap, but he should be worth every penny tonight. Not to mention, he won’t be highly owned in tournaments, thanks to that high price tag.
J.A. Happ, Toronto Blue Jays – The Baltimore Orioles have a dangerous and deep offense. With that being said, they have actually struggled against southpaws, ranking 27th overall in both wOBA and wRC+. Happ was not at his best the last couple of starts, but he has been terrific this season and he handled the Orioles with ease the last time he faced them (7 IP, 1 ER, 11 Ks). We may not see a double-digit strikeout performance from him tonight, but the upside is certainly there.
Adam Wainwright, St. Louis Cardinals – The Milwaukee Brewers are a fun team to attack. The Brewers are a good offense, and they do play in a very hitter-friendly environment, but they also lead the league in strikeouts versus right-handed pitching, which puts Adam Wainwright on our GPP map. The St. Louis Cardinals’ cagey veteran no longer has elite stuff, but he can still dominate a game in the right matchup. The K-happy Brewers happen to be a great boom-or-bust matchup and I think we see a gem from Wainwright in this one.
Julio Teheran, Atlanta Braves – Teheran has very quietly had a nice season in 2016, holding opponents to a .215 BAA, while keeping lefties in check, which had been a major problem for him last season. The San Diego Padres are the worst team in baseball against right-handed pitching. The Padres are not only dead last in both wOBA and wRC+, but they are also striking out 24.8% of the time, which is the second-most in Major League Baseball. The Atlanta Braves’ young ace has posted some big games this year and I think we see another one from him this evening.
Other Pitchers to Target – Drew Pomeranz, Cole Hamels, Johnny Cueto
CATCHER
Gary Sanchez, New York Yankees – It is truly amazing to see what Gary Sanchez has done during his brief time in the Show. The Yankees’ rookie catcher has shown the ability to hit for average (.398 BA, .465 OBP), and big time power (.539 wOBA, with 8 doubles and 11 home runs). Sure, it is a small sample size, but I don’t think anyone doubts the fact that this kid is absolutely legit. With Sanchez hitting in a pitcher’s haven tonight, and seeing his salary catch up to his production, we should finally see him with a low ownership.
Russell Martin, Toronto Blue Jays – Martin has been one of the hottest hitting catchers in baseball over the last 30 days and he continues to hit clean-up for one of the best offenses in Major League Baseball. Tonight he faces Ubaldo Jimenez, who constantly falls behind hitters thanks to his lack of control. Martin should find himself not only hitting with runners on base most of the night, but also with the count in his favor.
Other Catchers to Target – Yasmani Grandal, Stephen Vogt, Yadier Molina, Jett Bandy
FIRST BASE
Freddie Freeman, Atlanta Braves – Edwin Jackson is a pitcher I love to target batters again, and I will continue to do so tonight, even with a weak Atlanta Braves lineup. Jackson was rocked in his last two outings (9 IP, 13 ER, 4 homers allowed) and he has been a “Gas Can” throughout his Major League career. First base is loaded tonight and I don’t see Freeman being all that popular in GPPs, despite his big game upside in this prime matchup.
Joey Votto, Cincinnati Reds – With all kinds of offenses in play tonight we could see the Cincinnati Reds pretty much ignored, despite a very good matchup. Jered Weaver has been awful this year and he is backed up by a bad Los Angeles Angels bullpen. Votto has multi-hit/run/RBI upside in this one.
Other First Basemen to Target – Adrian Gonzalez, Miguel Cabrera, Brandon Moss, Carlos Santana, Mike Napoli, Albert Pujols, C.J. Cron
SECOND BASE
Ian Kinsler, Detroit Tigers – Anthony Ranaudo was pounded once again in his last start and he now owns a 9.61 ERA on the season. The 26-year-old right-hander has been hammered by righties (.373 wOBA, 33.9% hard-hit rate) throughout his career and I expect that trend to continue tonight in Detroit. Kinsler has the upside for a jack-and-a-bag combo meal in this game.
Matt Carpenter, St. Louis Cardinals – Wily Peralta has been awful in 2016 and yet the Milwaukee Brewers continue to roll him out every fifth day, which is great news for us daily fantasy players. The 27-year-old Dominican has posted an ugly 5.87 ERA, to go along with a pathetic .332 BAA. Left-handed hitters have crushed Peralta all season long (.393 wOBA, 34.9% hard-hit rate) and we will see more of the same tonight. Look for a multi-hit game from Carpenter this evening with one of those hits leaving the yard.
Other Second Basemen to Target – Dee Gordon, Jose Altuve, Chase Utley, Daniel Murphy, Howie Kendrick, Devon Travis
THIRD BASE
Nolan Arenado, Colorado Rockies – Arenado continues to rake for the Colorado Rockies, compiling eight hits in his last three games. The Rockies’ third baseman has been an absolute beast at home versus southpaws in 2016 (.466 wOBA) and I think we see another big game from him tonight. With Rich Hill pitching well and Arenado’s high price tag, perhaps he is a little under-owned in tournament play this evening.
Justin Turner, Los Angeles Dodgers – We have to go back to Coors Field for a least one Los Angeles Dodgers bat tonight. However, I don’t think this is a night where you “have to have” exposure to Coors Field to take down a big tournament. With two solid southpaws on the mound, I could see this game being relatively low scoring. Aside from Nolan Arenado, Justin Turner is my top bat in Colorado tonight.
Other Third Basemen to Target – Josh Donaldson, Adrian Beltre, Jedd Gyorko, Jose Ramirez
SHORTSTOP
Francisco Lindor, Cleveland Indians – The Minnesota Twins have sent both Jose Berrios and Tyler Duffey to Triple-A, opening the door for Andrew Albers to take a turn in the rotation. The Twins’ lefty does not have prospect status and he has struggled this year in the Minors. Lindor contributes across the board offensively and has hit lefties very well in 2016. The Cleveland Indians are another team worth stacking tonight and Lindor is a “must” as part of that stack.
Jhonny Peralta, St. Louis Cardinals – Shortstop is quite weak tonight and high upside bats are hard to come by at this weak position. Jhonny Peralta offers some nice upside at a very reasonable price. Ideally you want to load up on lefties against Wily Peralta, but he has been abused by right-handed batters as well in 2016 (.402 wOBA).
Other Shortstops to Target – Carlos Correa, Xander Bogaerts, Troy Tulowitzki
OUTFIELDERS
Nelson Cruz, Seattle Mariners – Sure he is facing Cole Hamels, and Hamels has been lights-out recently, but he is still a lefty, and we know what Nelly does to lefties. Cruz has double-dong potential tonight and he will be criminally under-owned in large field tournaments.
Detroit Tigers Outfield – The Detroit Tigers have the highest projected run total of the night and they should be at the top of your stacking list, as they square off against the very hittable Anthony Ranaudo. All three of J.D. Martinez, Cameron Maybin and Justin Upton have big game upside in this plus matchup.
Mike Trout and Kole Calhoun, Los Angeles Angels – It is a small sample size, but Tim Adelman has not looked good at the Major League level. The 6’5”, 225lb righty, has allowed a .424 wOBA to left-handed batters and a 35.4% hard-hit rate to righties. The Los Angeles Angels make a sneaky stack tonight, and we can expect Trout and Calhoun to lead their offensive attack.
Other Outfielders to Target – Mookie Betts, Jose Bautista, Bryce Harper, George Springer, Rajai Davis, Billy Hamilton, Adam Duvall