MLB Grind Down: Sunday, September 27th
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Remember, these write-ups are done prior to lineups being released, so make sure to check our Starting Lineups page to ensure the recommended options are playing.
Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.
Subscribe to our daily newsletter and lineup alerts for the most up-to-date DFS MLB news.
Chicago White Sox at NY Yankees – 1:05 PM EST
| Chicago White Sox | NY Yankees | ||||||||
 | Erik Johnson |  | Luis Severino | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| NYY (-190) | 8.5 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.297 | 1.010 | 0.430 | 8.7% | SP vs. Left | 0.267 | 0.773 | 0.341 | 18.30% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.243 | 0.680 | 0.298 | 27.7% | SP vs. Right | 0.188 | 0.634 | 0.278 | 29.00% |
| Batter Splits | CWS vs R | Batter Splits | NYY vs R | ||||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Erik Johnson – Johnson showed some good strikeout ability in AAA with a 25.4% strikeout rate in 132 innings this season, and showed he has the ability to translate that to the majors with nine strikeouts in six innings against Detroit on Monday. While he has some long term potential, a trip to Yankee Stadium does not look like a good spot to take a chance on a young pitcher. Pitcher Rating – 3.5
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 23 – SIERA: 4.57 – ERA: 3.52 – K%: 22.1% – BB%: 10.5% – HR/9: 2.35
Salaries: $7,000 FD, $4,000 DK
Luis Severino – Severino has been a great addition to the Yankees rotation since his call-up in early August, but a glance at his 4.00 SIERA should tell you that he is probably closer to a league average pitcher than what his 3.10 ERA shows. Outside of one bad start against the Blue Jays, he has been very consistent. Eight of his nine starts have resulted in 5-6 innings, 3-7 strikeouts and 0-3 runs allowed. With a matchup against the White Sox, it is reasonable to expect a similar start that could be useful as an SP2. Pitcher Rating – 6.5
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 49 – SIERA: 4.00 – ERA: 3.10 – K%: 23.1% – BB%: 10.1% – HR/9: 1.28
Salaries: $8,500 FD, $8,100 DK
Batter Grind Down
Chicago White Sox
The White Sox have not been hitting the ball well and this is a difficult offense to get excited about. Luis Severino has been very good against right-handed batters but is allowing a .341 wOBA to lefties with some control problems. If you really want to have some White Sox hitters on your team, look to the left-handed bats, but they are pretty far down the list today.
Secondary Plays:
Adam Eaton – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .360 – OBP: .367 – ISO: .174 – wRC+: 128
Melky Cabrera – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .325 – OBP: .334 – ISO: .133 – wRC+: 104
NY Yankees
Early in his career, Erik Johnson has been very solid against right-handed batters, but terrible against lefties with a career .432 wOBA allowed, an above average fly ball rate and more walks than strikeouts. This sets up well for the Yankees left-handed batters in their home stadium.
Elite Plays
Brian McCann – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .335 – OBP: .324 – ISO: .220 – wRC+: 111
Carlos Beltran – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .358 – OBP: .346 – ISO: .202 – wRC+: 127
Jacoby Ellsbury – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .299 – OBP: .318 – ISO: .099 – wRC+: 86
Brett Gardner – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .326 – OBP: .337 – ISO: .154 – wRC+: 105
Greg Bird – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .375 – OBP: .327 – ISO: .306 – wRC+: 139
Secondary Plays:
Chase Headley – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .302 – OBP: .322 – ISO: .104 – wRC+: 88
Didi Gregorius – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .305 – OBP: .315 – ISO: .113 – wRC+: 90
Tampa Bay at Toronto – 1:07 PM EST
| Tampa Bay | Toronto | ||||||||
 | Matt Andriese |  | Mark Buehrle | ||||||
| RIGHT | LEFT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| TOR (-186) | 9.0 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.287 | 0.801 | 0.347 | 16.9% | SP vs. Left | 0.276 | 0.757 | 0.330 | 12.40% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.256 | 0.683 | 0.294 | 17.3% | SP vs. Right | 0.277 | 0.735 | 0.319 | 12.50% |
| Batter Splits | TBR BvP | TB vs L | Batter Splits | TOR vs R | |||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Matt Andriese – Andriese will get a spot start today as the Rays try to finish out the season any way they can. He hasn’t started since early July and hasn’t pitched more than one inning at a time since August. It is doubtful he will go deep into the game, and even if he does, you don’t want to pitch anyone against this Blue Jays offense. Pitcher Rating – 3
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 59 – SIERA: 4.01 – ERA: 4.37 – K%: 17.1% – BB%: 6.2% – HR/9: 1.21
Salaries: $5,200 FD, $4,200 DK
Mark Buehrle – I am out of things to say about Buehrle. It looks like should be a terrible pitcher who gets annihilated every time he takes the mound, but he’s just not. Somehow, he has learned how to pitch with underwhelming stuff and get the job done. He pitches in one of the most hitter friendly parks in the league, and has just 42 strikeouts in 84 innings in Toronto, and somehow has a 3.09 ERA. That is crazy stuff. While that is all sunshine and roses, you really can’t use him in DFS as such an incredibly low strikeout rate gives you absolutely no upside whatsoever. Pitcher Rating – 4.5
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 215 – SIERA: 4.68 – ERA: 3.69 – K%: 10.9% – BB%: 3.9% – HR/9: 0.89
Salaries: $7,800 FD, $5,700 DK
Batter Grind Down
Tampa Bay
Like I said above, it seems like Buehrle should be giving up tons of runs, but it rarely happens. This Tampa team has quite a few hitters who excel against left-handed pitching, and I would think they should have success today. But, will they? I honestly don’t know. I hope that is helpful.
Elite Plays
Evan Longoria – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .412 – OBP: .404 – ISO: .241 – wRC+: 169
Logan Forsythe – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .405 – OBP: .370 – ISO: .305 – wRC+: 165
Secondary Plays:
Mikie Mahtook – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .400 – OBP: .365 – ISO: .286 – wRC+: 161
Brandon Guyer – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .361 – OBP: .373 – ISO: .178 – wRC+: 134
Toronto
This Blue Jays team just continues to tear up every pitcher they face. They put up nine runs against Chris Arhcer yesterday and used up quite a few arms in the Rays bullpen. Matt Andriese is a decent pitcher, but I certainly expect Toronto to get to him, forcing Tampa to go back to the bullpen again, and it wouldn’t be a shock to see another 10+ run game. Blue Jays hitters can be used in all formats.
Elite Plays
Josh Donaldson – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .391 – OBP: .364 – ISO: .260 – wRC+: 149
Jose Bautista – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .392 – OBP: .375 – ISO: .295 – wRC+: 150
Edwin Encarnacion – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .388 – OBP: .368 – ISO: .279 – wRC+:147
Ben Revere – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .325 – OBP: .348 – ISO: .080 – wRC+:103
Secondary Plays:
Russell Martin – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .313 – OBP: .300 – ISO: .199 – wRC+: 95
Justin Smoak – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .316 – OBP: .295 – ISO: .222 – wRC+: 98
Minnesota at Detroit – 1:08 PM EST
| Minnesota | Detroit | ||||||||
 | Ervin Santana |  | Randy Wolf | ||||||
| RIGHT | LEFT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| MIN (-131) | 9.0 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.273 | 0.771 | 0.335 | 17.7% | SP vs. Left | 0.190 | 0.467 | 0.224 | 12.80% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.238 | 0.685 | 0.303 | 24.3% | SP vs. Right | 0.332 | 0.974 | 0.415 | 17.80% |
| Batter Splits | MIN BvP | MIN vs L | Batter Splits | DET BvP | DET vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Ervin Santana – Santana has looked sharp recently, putting up five straight quality starts with a 3.35 SIERA and a 25.8% strikeout rate. It’s hard to trust him after how awful he was for a six start stretch in late July-August, but you can’t really argue with what he’s done of late. I am personally not touching him in cash games, but he could be a tournament play if you believe in what he’s been doing. Pitcher Rating – 5.5
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 94 – SIERA: 4.33 – ERA: 4.31 – K%: 18.5% – BB%: 7.7% – HR/9: 1.15
Salaries: $6,900 FD, $7,500 DK
Randy Wolf – Wolf put up a couple decent starts in his first two games of the season, but really has been much more bad than good. He has allowed 17 runs in his last four starts and his 4.57 SIERA and questionable walk rate should be enough to keep you away, especially with the Twins strong lineup against left-handed pitching. Pitcher Rating – 3
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 32 – SIERA: 4.57 – ERA: 5.91 – K%: 16.9% – BB%: 9.2% – HR/9: 1.41
Salaries: $5,100 FD, $4,600 DK
Batter Grind Down
Minnesota
This looks like a good matchup for the Twins offense as Randy Wolf has allowed a .424 wOBA to right-handed hitters. That is a little bit inflated due to a high BABIP and HR/FB, but a 35% hard hit rate shows that he is vulnerable against righties.
Elite Plays
Miguel Sano – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .378 – OBP: .368 – ISO: .221 – wRC+: 141
Brian Dozier – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .326 – OBP: .320 – ISO: .211 – wRC+: 105
Aaron Hicks – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .377 – OBP: .371 – ISO: .200 – wRC+: 141
Trevor Plouffe – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .341 – OBP: .344 – ISO: .186 – wRC+: 116
Secondary Plays:
Torii Hunter – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .312 – OBP: .292 – ISO: .192 – wRC+: 96
Eddie Rosario – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .343 – OBP: .311 – ISO: .211 – wRC+: 117
Kurt Suzuki – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .280 – OBP: .315 – ISO: .083 – wRC+: 96
Joe Mauer – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .320 – OBP: .332 – ISO: .129 – wRC+: 101
Detroit
Like I mentioned, Ervin Santana has been pitching well recently, and he’s been good against right-handed batters all season with a .305 wOBA allowed. He is vulnerable to lefties with a .340 wOBA allowed and a 15% strikeout rate. It’s unclear how to play this as most of Detroit’s best hitters are right-handed. I’m mostly going to stay off of Detroit, but certainly the likes of Miguel Cabrera and J.D. Martinez can hit off anybody and are always tournament options.
Secondary Plays:
Miguel Cabrera – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .401 – OBP: .427 – ISO: .185 – wRC+: 157
J.D. Martinez – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .373 – OBP: .337 – ISO: .254 – wRC+: 138
Ian Kinsler – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .337 – OBP: .345 – ISO: .133 – wRC+: 112
Anthony Gose – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .318 – OBP: .334 – ISO: .118 – wRC+: 99
Victor Martinez – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .261 – OBP: .273 – ISO: .123 – wRC+: 60
NY Mets at Cincinnati – 1:10 PM EST
| NY Mets | Cincinnati | ||||||||
 | Jacob Degrom |  | Keyvius Sampson | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| CIN (0) | 0.0 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.237 | 0.660 | 0.291 | 25.4% | SP vs. Left | 0.366 | 1.001 | 0.431 | 17.70% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.201 | 0.541 | 0.238 | 26.6% | SP vs. Right | 0.248 | 0.750 | 0.325 | 13.90% |
| Batter Splits | NYM BvP | NYM vs R | Batter Splits | CIN BvP | CIN vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Jacob deGrom – After a rough start two weeks ago where he allowed six runs to the Marlins in five innings, the Mets skipped a turn in the rotation to get deGrom rested for the playoffs. I love his overall skill set and have played him a lot this season, but the Mets are unlikely to push him in this start. I would be surprised to more than five innings, maybe six out of him, which will make it difficult to pay off his salary even if he pitches well. Great pitcher, not a great day to use him. Pitcher Rating – 7
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 181 – SIERA: 3.09 – ERA: 2.64 – K%: 26.5% – BB%: 5.0% – HR/9: 0.80
Salaries: $10,600 FD, $10,400 DK
Keyvius Sampson – If you’re considering starting Keyvius Sampson at this point in the season, it’s probably too late for me to help you. But, I’ll still try; don’t play Keyvius Sampson. Pitcher Rating – 2
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 45 – SIERA: 5.15 – ERA: 6.45 – K%: 15.6% – BB%: 11.4% – HR/9: 1.01
Salaries: $4,800 FD, $4,400 DK
Batter Grind Down
NY Mets
The entire Mets lineup is in play for both cash games and tournaments against Keyvius Sampson. Sampson has allowed a .431 wOBA to left-handed batters, and a .325 wOBA to righties that is aided by a low BABIP and HR/FB. He allows a 34% hard contact rate to all hitters. It is possible that they rest a bunch of starters after clinching the division last night, so be sure to keep an eye on the lineup.
Elite Plays
Yoenis Cespedes – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .388 – OBP: .341 – ISO: .267 – wRC+: 149
Curtis Granderson – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .381 – OBP: .386 – ISO: .223 – wRC+: 148
Lucas Duda – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .347 – OBP: .354 – ISO: .226 – wRC+: 124
Michael Conforto – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .386 – OBP: .363 – ISO: .255 – wRC+: 151
Daniel Murphy – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .345 – OBP: .339 – ISO: .191 – wRC+: 123
Secondary Plays:
David Wright – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .324 – OBP: .351 – ISO: .097 – wRC+: 109
Travis d’Arnaud – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .336 – OBP: .323 – ISO: .200 – wRC+: 117
Cincinnati
You don’t want to play an batters against Jacob deGrom, although if you want to take a shot on hoping that Cincinnati get to face some bad relievers in the middle of the game, it could pay off, butit is a very low percentage play.
Secondary Plays:
Joey Votto – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .433 – OBP: .464 – ISO: .249 – wRC+: 175
Atlanta at Miami – 1:10 PM EST
| Atlanta | Miami | ||||||||
 | Shelby Miller |  | Tom Koehler | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| MIA (-120) | 7.5 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.247 | 0.721 | 0.315 | 16.8% | SP vs. Left | 0.243 | 0.689 | 0.306 | 19.20% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.223 | 0.647 | 0.287 | 19.9% | SP vs. Right | 0.247 | 0.725 | 0.320 | 17.30% |
| Batter Splits | ATL BvP | ATL vs R | Batter Splits | MIA BvP | MIA vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Shelby Miller – It’s been quite a season for Shelby Miller, you’ve gotta feel sorry for the guy. He has 20 quality starts and a 3.00 ERA and only has five wins to show for it. He was never pitching quite as well as his ERA indicated, as you can see from his 4.14 SIERA, but he is a very solid pitcher who deserved better luck than he got. If he has one more good start in him, Miami would be a good place to look for it. He’s not anywhere near the top of the pitcher rankings today, but he is a decent SP2 option where appropriately priced. Pitcher Rating – 7
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 192 – SIERA: 4.14 – ERA: 3.00 – K%: 20.1% – BB%: 8.6% – HR/9: 0.56
Salaries: $7,100 FD, $7,800 DK
Tom Koehler – If you were ever going to start a mediocre pitcher like Koehler, a home start against the Braves would be the place to do it. He has been effective at home for the past two seasons, and while I personally won’t use a pitcher of his ability, he is not the worst choice as an SP2. It seems unlikely that he will have a bad outing. Pitcher Rating – 6
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 175 – SIERA: 4.59 – ERA: 3.94 – K%: 17.5% – BB%: 9.1% – HR/9: 1.08
Salaries: $7,500 FD, $7,000 DK
Batter Grind Down
Atlanta
Tom Koehler is a just decent enough that he is tough to play against with a questionable offense like Atlanta. Their left-handed batters are decent plays where their salaries are low, but I am mostly avoiding this game.
Secondary Plays:
Freddie Freeman – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .397 – OBP: .389 – ISO: .236 – wRC+: 154
Nick Markakis – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .346 – OBP: .396 – ISO: .092 – wRC+: 119
Miami
Shelby Miller has been tough on right-handed batters and pretty good against left-handed batters with a .315 wOBA allowed. There is not much reason to look to Marlins batters, but the lefties could have a little bit of success if you’re looking for an off the wall play.
Secondary Plays:
Dee Gordon – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .326 – OBP: .352 – ISO: .074 – wRC+: 105
Christian Yelich – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .349 – OBP: .368 – ISO: .133 – wRC+: 120
Justin Bour – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .350 – OBP: .324 – ISO: .231 – wRC+: 121
Derek Dietrich – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .384 – OBP: .373 – ISO: .243 – wRC+: 144