NFL Advanced Matchup Plays: Week 8
I came into last week behind on research and with my confidence level low. Seemingly, the only good call I made was only putting five percent of my bankroll in play. As a means of making amends for last week, as well as gratitude to RotoGrinders for the freedom they’ve allowed me in this column, I decided to go all-out for Week 8.
I hit a season-high in word count this week (3,800+), and am happy to announce I feel much more confident about my calls this week.
I’d also like to give a shout-out to everyone who comments on these articles. Last week’s comments were especially supportive, and it meant a lot, especially as I’m apt to beat myself up on down-weeks. I also appreciate hearing which plays you find most-compelling/well-reasoned, as this sometimes has I direct impact on my own levels of ownership. I’ll continue reading and replying to each comment every week.
Note 1: All references to expected fantasy points can be explained here
Note 2: All references to team fantasy points allowed over expectation are based on this chart.
Note 3: All numbers in parentheses refer to a player’s salary rank on each site.
Quarterbacks
I’m having a hard time avoiding the chalk at the quarterback position. Carson Wentz is the No. 1 quarterback in my rankings, but is the sixth-highest-priced quarterback on FanDuel. Kirk Cousins ranks third in fantasy points per game since Week 3, and had 813 yards and four touchdowns in two games against Dallas last season. Andy Dalton faces an Indianapolis defense historically terrible on the road and ranks fourth-worst against expectation this season. Russell Wilson has been on a tear since Week 3, and draws a Houston Texans defense likely (Kevin Johnson is questionable) without four starting former first-round draft picks.
Cam Newton (DK: QB6, FD: QB8) – If there’s a quarterback I’m highest on relative to projected ownership, it’s Newton. It’s worth monitoring the weather conditions in Tampa Bay this week, considering early forecasts are predicting 20 mph winds, which have been shown to have a negative impact on a team’s passing efficiency. This would have me increase ownership to Christian McCaffrey, while slightly reducing ownership in Newton and his other pass-catchers. Newton’s general health and recent play is a concern as well, but I can’t pass up the opportunity to play Newton in a dream matchup against a Tampa Bay defense ranking last in fantasy points against expectation to opposing quarterbacks (and, by a landslide, wide receivers). They also just lost edge rusher Noah Spence (who ranks third on the team in pressures) for the remainder of the year.
To make matters even worse, Tampa Bay’s starting cornerbacks Brent Grimes and Robert McClain are both out for Sunday. Case Keenum, Eli Manning, Carson Palmer, and Tyrod Taylor averaged 24.3 fantasy points per game against Tampa Bay, but averaged only 13.0 in all other games. Mike Glennon and Tom Brady had less impressive games, but each threw for at least 300 yards and one touchdown. Newton struggled in his last two outings, but hit at least 300 yards and three touchdowns in his prior two games. He also retains an attractive floor as a runner, totaling 35 carries, 165 rushing yards, and two rushing touchdowns over his last four games. Either of Kelvin Benjamin and Devin Funchess are strong stacking options, and I like McCaffrey a lot as well (who I will get to in a little bit).
Philip Rivers (DK: QB11, FD: QB16) – The Patriots are allowing the most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks (27.8), and rank third-worst in opposing passer rating (103.8). Every quarterback they’ve faced has scored at least 17.0 fantasy points against them, including season-highs to Cam Newton, Alex Smith, and Drew Brees, while Josh McCown and Matt Ryan each had their second-best games of the year. Rivers, meanwhile, has thrown for multiple touchdowns or 300-yards in 19 of his past 22 games. Unless Bill Belichick breaks out the fog machines again, I have a hard time imagining Rivers doesn’t exceed value this week.
Running Backs
Melvin Gordon (DK: RB4, FD: RB6) – Melvin Gordon was on the injury report in Week 5 with a knee injury, was on the injury report in Week 7 with a shoulder injury, and is now on the injury report with a foot injury. Austin Ekeler saw seven carries and four targets last week, while Gordon totaled just 5.4 fantasy points against a Denver defense allowing the fewest fantasy points per game to game to opposing defenses. These are his warts, which undoubtedly raise his risk of busting, but if I knew he was of full health, I’d have near-100-percent ownership to him this week. The Patriots (now without starting linebacker Dont’a Hightower) rank fourth-worst in yards per carry allowed (4.76), while also allowing the second-most receiving fantasy points per game (15.8) to opposing running backs. The latter stat bodes especially well for Gordon, who has seen 56.9 percent of his fantasy production come as a receiver. That’s the highest rate for any running back with at least 50 carries. Gordon ranks sixth among running backs in fantasy points per game, but ranks second among all players in expected fantasy points per game over the past four weeks (23.1). You’ll likely get Gordon at low ownership after last week’s dud, and despite the warts, the upside is high enough that I’ll still have higher ownership than the rest of the field.
Christian McCaffrey (DK: RB10, FD: RB17) – McCaffrey currently ranks fourth among all players in receptions per game. Over the past three weeks, McCaffrey ranks eighth, fourth, and 11th among running backs in expected fantasy points. Over this stretch, McCaffrey ranks fourth among all players in expected fantasy points and 13th in actual fantasy points. Efficiency has undoubtedly been poor, but I’m still betting on McCaffrey to turn things around. Volume should again be good against a Tampa Bay defense surrendering the seventh-most targets per game to opposing running backs and the second-most targets per game to opposing slot wide receivers (where McCaffrey runs 19.1 percent of his routes). Carolina may also place a greater emphasis on short passes as an extension of their running game, with starting center Ryan Kalil out. Jonathan Stewart also popped up on the injury report for the first time this year (toe) and has only practiced in a limited fashion this week. Apologies in advance, but I’ll continue writing McCaffrey up until he explodes.
Mark Ingram (DK: RB6, FD: RB7) – Over the past four weeks, Ingram ranks fifth-best among all players in expected fantasy points per game. Over the course of the full season, and despite Adrian Peterson eating into his workload for the majority of this stretch, Ingram still ranks eighth among running backs in expected fantasy points per game. This week, he’s at home, drawing a Bears team unlikely to keep up with New Orleans’ high-powered offense. To me, as nine-point favorites this seems like a much better matchup for Ingram than Alvin Kamara, especially considering the Bears are allowing the 12th-most rushing fantasy points per game, but the sixth-fewest receiving fantasy points per game to opposing running backs, despite facing proficient pass-catchers in Jerick McKinnon, Le’Veon Bell, Christian McCaffrey, Javorius Allen, and Ty Montgomery.
Jordan Howard (DK: RB8, FD: RB8) – Since Mitch Trubisky has taken over as starting quarterback, the Bears have run the ball 111 times while attempting only 50 passes. This 68.9 team run percentage would rank highest (over a full season) since the 1976 Steelers. Jordan Howard, meanwhile, is averaging 25.3 carries and 102.7 yards per game over the past three weeks. Despite the offense’s general inability to get in the end zone, the volume should be enough for Howard to remain as a tournament-viable option against a New Orleans defense ranking fifth-worst in yards per carry allowed (4.65). While I’m certainly not in love with this play, considering I do think Chicago gets smashed, but maybe his floor is better than I had imagined. As JMtoWin outlined here, “the Bears rank 29th in pace of play when trailing by seven or more points.”
Carlos Hyde (DK: RB11, FD: RB10) – Much like Howard, Hyde is another tournament-viable running back I’m not incredibly high on, but feel compelled to write about because fewer others are. The matchup for Hyde looks tough against a Philadelphia defenses ranking second-best in both yards per carry allowed (3.06) and rushing fantasy points per game allowed (6.8) to opposing running backs. Still, Hyde ranks sixth-best among running backs in expected fantasy points per game (18.1), and should be held afloat by a high receiving-floor. The Eagles are allowing the seventh-most receiving fantasy points per game to opposing running backs (13.5), and Hyde has seen 14 targets over the past two weeks and six targets or more in five of seven games. Hyde also retains high touchdown-potential should San Francisco find themselves near the end zone, as his 10 carries inside the 5-yard line leads the league. After some concern that Matt Breida might turn this into a committee-situation, Hyde is back to his typical bell cow workload, seeing 77.7 percent of the team’s running back snaps over the past two weeks (fifth-most). Ultimately, this just comes down to his volume being much greater than his RB11 price-tag on DraftKings.
LeGarrette Blount (DK: RB19, FD: RB19) – Although Blount ranks just 26th in carries per game and rarely sees involvement in the passing game, he has seen nine of Philadelphia’s 11 running back opportunities inside the five-yard line. Over the past two seasons, opposing RB1s are averaging 22.6 fantasy points per game against San Francisco. For perspective, that’s more than names like Ezekiel Elliott, Melvin Gordon, and Leonard Fournette have averaged over this stretch. Blount is the 19th-highest-priced running back on FanDuel, which is about where I have him ranked, but he offers additional value as a leverage play off of the far-more heavily-owned Wentz.
Le’Veon Bell [DK: RB1, FD: RB1) – Over the past four weeks Bell ranks first among all players (by +3.4) in expected fantasy points per game with 26.5, which isn’t too far off of his 3x valuation of 27.9. Over this stretch, he averages an ungodly 29.3 carries, 6.0 targets, and 3.0 opportunities inside the 10-yard-line per game. Over the past three seasons, Bell has averaged +8.2 fantasy points per game and +2.8 targets per game more when Martavis Bryant has been inactive, which is looking likely this week. Bell draws a soft matchup this week, up against a Detroit Lions defense surrendering the fourth-most fantasy points per game to opposing running backs.
Wide Receivers
Demaryius Thomas (DK: WR23, FD: WR19) – Thomas is coming off of a brutal matchup in shadow coverage against Casey Hayward, who has been one of the best shadow cornerbacks in the league over the past few seasons. He held Thomas to just two receptions and nine yards last week (though an 81-yard catch and run was called back due to offensive pass interference), which could cause him to go lower-owned than he otherwise should be in a much softer matchup. This season, Kansas City is allowing the most fantasy points per game to wide receivers who line up to their quarterbacks left (18.6), after allowing the second-most last season (14.3).
Thomas has run 105 routes (49.5 percent) from his quarterback’s left, which ranks 12th-most among all wide receivers. This number could even climb as Denver keeps Thomas away from Marcus Peters, who only ever sticks to his side of the field. This means Thomas draws Terrance Mitchell for the majority of this game. To-date, Mitchell has been targeted 65 times, yielding 597 yards and five touchdowns. Among all wide receivers not-named Antonio Brown, that would rank first, first, and fourth, respectively. With Emmanuel Sanders likely out again, this should also mean more volume for Thomas. He’s the 23rd-highest-priced wide receiver on DraftKings, but ranks ninth in expected fantasy points the last two weeks with Sanders missing time. He’s easily one of my top plays on this slate.
Pierre Garcon (DK: WR22, FD: WR20) – Garcon ranks 11th among wide receivers in expected fantasy points per game, which is too far below his salary ranking on both sites. Teams are passing on Philadelphia 71 percent of the time, while the next-closest team (Buffalo) sits at just 62 percent. Our WR vs. CB matchup chart currently projects Garcon to run 50 percent of his routes from Jalen Mills’ side of the field. Mills was our single worst-graded cornerback last season, ranks ninth-worst this year, and is surrendering the third-most fantasy points at the position. Ronald Darby’s status (he’s questionable) might muddy this projection, but it’s a strong matchup regardless, as Philadelphia is allowing the most fantasy points per game to opposing outside wide receivers this season.
Alshon Jeffery (DK: WR13, FD: WR22) – Jeffery has been one of the league’s most-cornerback sensitive wide receivers over the past three seasons (2014-2016), averaging 1.34 fantasy points per target against top-25-graded cornerbacks, as opposed to 2.51 against bottom-25-graded cornerbacks. All of San Francisco’s starting cornerbacks grade among our bottom-25 this year. This season, Jeffery run 49 percent of his routes against cornerbacks who graded out top-25 from a season ago, which ranks second-most among all receivers:.
Despite the tough matchups, Jeffery still leads the team in targets, though this has undoubtedly benefited tight end Zach Ertz who has just one fewer target this season. The reverse should be true this week, against a San Francisco defense ranking third-best over expectation against tight ends, but 11th-worst against wide receivers. Specifically, San Francisco is allowing the eighth-most fantasy points per game (11.0) to opposing wide receivers who line up to their quarterback’s left, which is where Jeffery runs 48 percent of his routes. Again, volume has been excellent for Jeffery this season, ranking 18th in expected fantasy points per game (13.0), though he’s just the 22nd-highest-priced wide receiver on FanDuel this week.
Keenan Allen (DK: WR9, FD: WR8) – Allen quietly ranks 10th among wide receivers in expected fantasy points per game and eighth in target market share (25.9 percent). Allen comes off of a brutal matchup against Chris Harris Jr. and the Denver Broncos to face a Patriots defense allowing the second-most fantasy points per game to opposing slot wide receivers. New England has surrendered 646 yards to wide receivers out of the slot this year, with the next-closest-defense (Tampa Bay) surrendering 125 fewer yards. In fact, Atlanta seemed aware of this weakness, as Mohamed Sanu drew a career-high nine targets from the slot in Week 7. Allen is shaping up to be fairly highly-owned and there’s a risk New England schemes to take Allen away, but purely based on matchup, this is a glaring hole in New England’s defense, especially with Eric Rowe still out.
Chris Hogan (DK: WR16, FD: WR12) – I liked this call slightly more when it was looking like Danny Amendola was unlikely to play, but Hogan is still one of my top wide receiver plays of the week regardless. He ranks fifth among all wide receivers in targets from the slot, while the Los Angeles Chargers are allowing the fourth-most fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers out of the slot. Both of their perimeter cornerbacks (Casey Hayward and Trevor Williams) rank among our 10-highest-graded this season. When Hogan is operating out of the slot, he’ll instead draw fifth-round rookie Desmond King, who is allowing an 82 percent completion percentage into his coverage.
Slot cornerback is typically considered a more difficult position to learn than on the perimeter, considering you lose the benefit of having the sideline to protect you. This is noteworthy considering King’s true position is on the perimeter, covering the slot on only 14 percent of his routes in coverage last season. This should funnel targets to both Hogan and Amendola, rather than Brandin Cooks or Rob Gronkowski (the Chargers rank best against expectation versus tight ends). Hogan ranks 13th in expected fantasy points per game, but is only the 16th-highest-priced wide receiver on DraftKings this week.
Tight Ends
Jordan Reed (DK: TE6, FD: TE6) – Reed has not been on the injury report since the team’s Week 5 bye. In Week 6 he had a brutal matchup against a San Francisco defense ranking third-best against expectation versus tight ends. In Week 7, he scored 26.4 fantasy points against the Eagles, though granted, Jordan Hicks played on only two snaps before exiting with an injury. Prior to the bye, Reed was playing on only 59 percent of the team’s snaps (109/184), as opposed to 75 percent (104/138) the past two weeks. He currently leads all tight ends in targets per route run. Reed is only $4,700 on DraftKings, implying a 4x valuation of 18.8. Since 2015, in all (26) games Reed played on at least 35 of the team’s snaps, he’s averaging 18.1 DraftKings fantasy points per game. His 5x valuation implies 23.5 DraftKings fantasy points, which is a number he’s hit in 35 percent of the games in this sample. It might feel like chasing points, but he’s one of my favorite tight ends of the week, and is flex-viable on DraftKings.
Jack Doyle (DK: TE17, FD: TE19) – Since Jacoby Brissett’s first start, Doyle is averaging 11.7 expected fantasy points per game, which would lead the Colts and rank fifth-most among tight ends. Over the past two seasons (preseason included), Brissett has targeted tight ends 29 percent of the time, with only Carson Wentz and Brock Osweiler ranking higher. The matchup isn’t great, but I still have Doyle as a low-end TE1 this week, which is well above his price-tag on both sites.
Jason Witten (DK: TE11, FD: TE15) – Dez Bryant has a brutal matchup against a Washington Redskins defense allowing the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers, and have been even better against WR1s. However, Washington has been far more susceptible to tight ends, allowing the third-most fantasy points per game, after allowing the fifth-most last season. Witten, meanwhile, quietly ranks fifth-best at the position in fantasy points per game, which is well above his ranking as the 15th-highest-priced tight end on FanDuel.
Hunter Henry (DK: TE5, FD: TE12) – Henry is our third-highest-graded tight end, and is finally seeing the usage he deserves, out-targeting Antonio Gates five to one last week, and running 20 routes to Gates’ eight. Gates was also limited in practice on Thursday, dealing with a knee injury. The Patriots are surrendering the sixth-most fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends this season. Since Henry’s third career game, he has hit at least 70 yards or caught a touchdown pass in 70 percent of his games. This is even more remarkable when considering he didn’t even see a target in 15 percent of these games.
Jimmy Graham (TE: TE7, FD: TE4) – Graham is a prime positive regression candidate, ranking second in expected fantasy points per game (12.6) but only 14th in actual fantasy points per game (9.8). Houston has seen 28 percent of their targets allowed funneled to tight ends, which ranks second-most in the league. Mostly based on volume, I have him as a top-six fantasy tight end this week.
Punt Plays I Love
Deonte Thompson (DK: WR66, FD: WR65) – At price and projected ownership, I prefer Thompson to much more talked about names like Josh Doctson, Juju Smith-Schuster, and Aldrick Robinson (if Marquise Goodwin sits). Over the past three seasons, 28 percent of Tyrod Taylor’s passing yards have come on deep targets, the highest rate in the league. Thompson was used in this capacity last week (his first game with Buffalo), gaining 107 yards and seeing three of his four targets come on deep passes.
Thompson reportedly ran a 4.31 40-yard dash at his Pro Day in 2012, and Taylor has some familiarity with Thompson dating back to high school. This matchup is particularly appealing considering Oakland is allowing the fourth-most fantasy points per game on deep passes (13.9) and rank worst in fantasy points per target allowed (4.1) on deep passes. To make matters worse for Oakland (even better for Thompson), neither of starting cornerbacks David Amerson or Gareon Conley will play on Sunday, and starting safety Karl Joseph (the 11th-highest-graded player at his position this season) is doubtful.
Mohamed Sanu (DK: WR33, FD: WR40) – I’m not in love with this call, but considering I haven’t seen it mentioned elsewhere, I’d be remiss if I did not bring it up. As I mentioned earlier, Sanu saw a career-high nine targets from the slot, where the opposing defense was most-vulnerable. This season, he has run 61 percent of his routes from the slot and has seen 69.7 percent of his targets there. In the four games he started and finished, he’s seen a 23.8 percent target market share, which would rank 16th-most among all players. As outlined here, the Jets have literally no one with experience to cover the slot with Buster Skrine and Xavier Coleman both out for Week 8.
Final Thoughts
Brandon LaFell has 15 targets, five red zone targets, and three end zone targets the past two weeks. He is the 85th-highest-priced wide receiver on FanDuel. I had originally written him up as maybe, possibly, kind of being in play this week as a leverage option off of A.J. Green. That is no longer the case, however, with John Ross coming back from a knee injury. Still, Green is undoubtedly going to be the highest-owned high-priced wide receiver of the week, up against a porous Colts secondary without their only positively graded cornerback (Rashaan Melvin) and only positively graded safety (Malik Hooker).
I’m undecided about what I want to do with him this week, considering there are still plenty of high-priced wide receivers in good spots at lower ownership. Antonio Brown’s matchup (not on DraftKings’ main slate) against Darius Slay doesn’t scare me with Martavis Bryant possibly inactive. Morris Claiborne has played well this year, but is grossly mismatched by Julio Jones.
Michael Thomas (at home) draws a Chicago Bears defense no longer stout against opposing WR1s, surrendering a combined 18.6 fantasy points per game to Antonio Brown, Jordy Nelson, Mike Evans, Julio Jones, and Kelvin Benjamin. Mike Evans is a lock for at least eight targets, and totaled 38.4 fantasy points in two games against Carolina last season.
This has me instead on Joe Mixon as the leverage play (if there is one). He is inappropriately priced (DK: RB27, FD: RB24), and has a strong matchup in his own right, considering the Colts are allowing the most rushing fantasy points per game to opposing running backs. In their last four games, against some not-so-imposing running backs in Jacksonville (without Leonard Fournette), Tennessee, San Francisco, and Seattle, the Colts are allowing 33.6 fantasy points per game to opposing running backs. He’s also worth pairing with Cincinnati’s defense, considering the Bengals rank first in pressures per dropback (44.7), while the Colts offense is allowing the fourth-most (41.9).
I didn’t write up LeSean McCoy, though he’s a strong play as well. Despite yielding 57 percent of the team’s carries inside the five-yard-line to Mike Tolbert, he’s held afloat by a high receiving workload. He ranks 10th among all players in target market share (25 percent) and ranks fourth among all players in expected fantasy points per game.
Either of Amari Cooper or Michael Crabtree could (maybe should) go off this week with starting cornerback E.J. Gaines out for Buffalo and starting running back Marshawn Lynch out for Oakland, but I don’t have a good read on which one that might be.
Doug Baldwin is in play against Kareem Jackson, who ranks 10th-worst among slot cornerbacks in fantasy points per target and 15th-worst in fantasy points per route run, but he’s typically someone I avoid due to unpredictable usage.