NFL Chalk Talk: Week 14
The next wave of DFS analysis is ownership projection for GPPs. We could argue that knowing exactly what our opponents are going to do is just as important as our actual box-score projections from a game theory perspective.
Of course, projecting ownership is no easy task. I am not smart enough to do it with a model or algorithm. I do it with logic, feel and by closely monitoring who “everyone” is talking about.
So each week, I’ll give the three players at each position I think will be the highest owned in the DraftKings $20 buy-in Millionaire Maker. Please understand these are NOT my top-ranked players at each position – it’s simply who I think will have the highest ownership percentage.
Editor’s Note: This refers to the main Sunday/Monday slate only.
QUARTERBACK
1. Jameis Winston $5,500 vs. NO: 19 percent
The flow-chart roster selection is in full effect these days: Step 1 is find out who is playing against the Saints and Step 2 is roster that team’s players. So even though Jameis Winston has zero 300-yard games and one or zero touchdowns in 8-of-12 games, he’s going to have traffic. He’ll also be popular because he’s $500 over the minimum in a week where we need to carve out every dollar we can. I think Winston will meet value, but similarly-priced Tyrod Taylor and Blake Bortles provide higher ceilings.
2. Cam Newton $7,500 vs. ATL: 17 percent
Last week, there was so much quality value (David Johnson, Scott Chandler, DeVante Parker, C.J. Anderson, Redskins D/ST) that is was easy for everyone to pay for Cam Newton against the Saints “defense.” He still only ended up 24.7 percent owned site-wide. So with almost no quality value this week, it’s going to be far harder to find the money for Cam. So I suspect he’ll be lower owned than most people project – especially in higher-dollar GPPs. We can easily create unique lineups that include Newton.
3. Ben Roethlisberger $6,800 at CIN: 14 percent
I think Russell Wilson ($6300 at BAL) will also be in the 12-15 percent range. But Roethlisberger is coming off the massive game on national television and everyone will want to stack with uber-chalk Antonio Brown. We also have significant injuries in the Bengals secondary. It’s really difficult for me to see Big Ben failing in this spot. As a whole, I think ownership at the quarterback position will be very flat this week, meaning we shouldn’t worry about it all too much when constructing lineups.
PROJECTED UNDEROWNED QBs: Tom Brady 6 percent, Andy Dalton 6 percent, Blake Bortles 5 percent
RUNNING BACK
1. LeSean McCoy $6,100 at PHL: 35 percent
So. Much. Revenge. Everyone knows McCoy was extremely angry and hurt about getting traded out of Philadelphia, going as far to imply Chip Kelly is a racist on his way out. Then he threw another log on the fire this week by saying he won’t shake Chip’s hand. I don’t believe in narratives, but I do think Rex Ryan is the kind of coach that will try to get McCoy a TD if the opportunity presents itself. We also have Karlos Williams (shoulder) still injured and McCoy’s 20-touch weekly floor. Both the narrative people and the stats people will be on Shady, leaving room for a fade in large-field GPPs at an elevated price of $6100.
2. Doug Martin $6,200 vs. NO: 18 percent
Martin would be far higher if he wasn’t priced right next to McCoy. We also have DeAngelo Williams at $6000 who will likely be in the 8-12 percent range. And then we have the people that won’t roster Martin because they’re already using Jameis Winston. My point is that I expect Martin to be lower-owned this week against the Saints than he was last week when he was 20.2 percent in a tougher matchup against the Falcons.
3. Shaun Draughn $4,800 at CLE: 12 percent
Again, people are going to be scraping for value. Draughn is not sexy as he’s been under 4.0 YPC in four straight games and has one touchdown during that span. But he does have 22 catches across the last four, giving him a very solid floor. Of course, Draughn’s price has gone up $800 since last week to $4800 – he’s now priced appropriately. Without much of a ceiling as part of the league’s lowest-scoring offense, Draughn is a fine fade. There are more volatile RBs like Gio Bernard, Darren Sproles, C.J. Spiller and Buck Allen that will come at lower ownerships.
PROJECTED UNDEROWNED RBs: Todd Gurley 3 percent, Lamar Miller 5 percent, Charcandrick West 6 percent, Giovani Bernard 2 percent
WIDE RECEIVER
1. Antonio Brown $8,900 at CIN: 40 percent
Brown has the best floor/ceiling combo in the league and it isn’t even close. He was 38.1 percent owned last week and went off for 40.8 DK points. Although there isn’t much value this week, most people will still find a way to cram Brown into their roster. It’s very difficult to blame them, especially with the Bengals’ secondary so banged up.
2. Odell Beckham $9,000 at MIA: 25 percent
How many times out of 100 will Odell outscore Antonio Brown this week? Given the state of the Giants’ run game and the state of the Dolphins’ pass defense, I believe it’s more than most realize. The problem with a straight Beckham for Brown pivot is that Brown won’t fail, meaning we won’t gain a ton in the instances OBJ wins the matchup. This is an instance where I wouldn’t force a pivot at a similar price point.
3. Danny Amendola $5,200 at HOU: 20 percent
I expect a lot of sharp people to get back on the Alshon Jeffery this week and Vincent Jackson will be popular as well thanks to his appealing price/matchup combo. They’ll likely be in the 12-16 percent range. But Amendola figures to be more popular because of the safe floor he brings. Although his price has been bumped up, he’s a virtual lock for 10-13 targets given his role in this offense. It’s just too much opportunity for a player at this price point, even though the matchup isn’t pristine.
PROJECTED UNDEROWNED WRs: DeAndre Hopkins 5 percent, Allen Hurns 6 percent, Brandin Cooks 4 percent
TIGHT END
1. Scott Chandler $3,800 at HOU: 34 percent (assuming Rob Gronkowski is out)
The 30.6 percent of people that rostered Scott Chandler last week profited when he scored 16.1 DK points. It was certainly a concern that he only saw seven targets in a game Tom Brady was forced to chuck it 56 times. However, there aren’t a lot of tight ends worth paying up for this week – especially when we need savings. I’ll likely end up with Chandler in cash, but his limited skill set and shaky role in the offense make him a good fade in large-field tournaments.
2. Greg Olsen $6,900 vs. ATL: 17 percent
Olsen is about the only “sure thing” at tight end this week. Of course, we have to pay a substantial fee to acquire that floor – something that is difficult to do this week. So I expect Olsen to be slightly down off last week’s 19.0 percent even though he went off for 23.9 DraftKings points. There’s no doubt he has the highest floor/ceiling combo at the position this week, so getting him in the 15-20 percent range is enticing.
3. Tyler Eifert $5,600 vs. PIT: 14 percent
A well-rested Eifert returns from his neck stinger and will be involved in the game everyone wants to stack. He’s also $1300 cheaper than Olsen. Eifert’s role between the 20s is a concern – he hasn’t been over 53 yards since Week 5. But his massive red-zone role is bankable, as that’s where the Bengals make him the primary read. It’s not a fluke Eifert leads the NFL with 12 touchdown receptions.
PROJECTED UNDEROWNED TEs: Austin Seferian-Jenkins 7 percent, Gary Barnidge 4 percent, Jacob Tamme 3 percent, Jordan Cameron 2 percent