NFL Grind Down: Week 1 - Page Two
Indianapolis Colts at Buffalo Bills
| Indianapolis Colts | Buffalo Bills | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Sunday – 1 p.m. | Ralph Wilson Stadium | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -2.5 | 46 | 24.25 | 2.5 | 46 | 21.75 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 28.2 | 6 | 1 | 14 | Offense | 19.1 | 25 | 24 | 30 | |
| Defense | 17.9 | 7 | 2 | 11 | Defense | 19.2 | 13 | 4 | 10 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Buffalo Bills | 2 | 4 | 11 | 1 | Indianapolis Colts | 13 | 21 | 2 | 26 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Hilton | 129 | 82 | 7 | 1365 | Watkins | 128 | 65 | 6 | 990 | |
| Johnson | 147 | 85 | 3 | 936 | Harvin | 78 | 51 | 2 | 685 | |
| Dorsett | Woods | 104 | 65 | 5 | 699 | |||||
| Fleener | 91 | 51 | 8 | 774 | Clay | 84 | 58 | 3 | 605 | |
When most daily fantasy gamers got back into football mode, they likely first thought to check where DFS darling Andrew Luck would be playing Week 1. They then likely scoffed in disgust at the sight of Rex Ryan’s Bills, who limit the upside for what was a profitable Colts offense to target last year. The Colts are favored despite visiting upstate New York for this one, but don’t expect a fireworks show from the Indianapolis offense.
The Quick Grind
IND Matchup Rating: 5.5
BUF Matchup Rating: 4.0
Notable injuries and suspensions: LeSean McCoy (BUF, Probable, Injury), Percy Harvin (BUF, Probable, Injury), Marquise Goodwin (BUF, Out, Injury)
Indianapolis Colts
Andrew Luck (FD $9,200, DK $8,300) threw the third-most passes in the NFL last year, and 40 of them went for touchdowns, which was the best total in the league. Lots of money was won thanks to Luck’s efforts in 2014, but don’t bank on a huge game against a strong Buffalo defense. Luck’s 4+ touchdown efforts last year were against the Jaguars, Titans, Giants and Washington, the former two representing bad teams that often lose by a lot of points, and the latter two representing two of the top five in fantasy points allowed to opposing signal callers last year. Andrew Luck has only played a Rex Ryan defense once in his career, and it was as a rookie, when he went for 22/44 with no touchdowns and two interceptions against the Jets. This isn’t to say that Luck won’t play well and possibly go for 300 yards and three scores. But I wouldn’t bank on that, and there are better options to spend up on at the quarterback position.
T.Y. Hilton (FD $7,800, DK $7,600) will be the unquestioned number one in Indianapolis this season, as the speedster posted his second straight 80-catch season last year while totaling over 1300 yards and scoring seven times. Andre Johnson (FD $6,900, DK $6,100) will be his “Miami product veteran receiver” partner this season, replacing Reggie Wayne, and rookie Phillip Dorsett (FD $4,600, DK $3,600) (also from “The U”) rounds out the top three receiving options for the Colts. All three have the potential to find the end zone, with Dorsett and Hilton both capable of breaking out for a huge play thanks to their speed and elusiveness. Football Outsiders ranked the Bills as among the NFL’s elite at defending #1 receivers, tight ends and running backs in the passing game last year, but did note that they struggled against secondary receiving options. It seems avoiding the coverage of Stephon Gilmore is key, and since both Hilton and Wayne spent time in the slot last season, we could see Hilton and Johnson moving inside and away from Gilmore in this contest. Yet, while Gilmore primarily played on the right for the Bills, Rex Ryan moved Darrelle Revis around during his time with the Jets, and Ryan apparently wants Gilmore to be the Revis of his Bills defense. That makes it hard to predict who will see the best matchup, and if I had to choose, I’d opt for the experience of Johnson, along with the anticipation that he’s less likely to be covered by Gilmore.
The Bills have an absolutely monstrous front seven on defense that will only be bolstered by bringing in a coach who gets the most out of his linemen and linebackers. While run-defense specialist Marcell Dareus will miss Week 1, there’s still more than enough talent to feel a bit uneasy about trusting anyone in the Indianapolis running game. Frank Gore (FD $7,500, DK $5,400) will have his touches limited, and there are no other names on the Colts’ running back depth chart that stand out to me as worthy of a roster spot.
The Takeaway: Frank Gore’s DraftKings salary is enticing, but otherwise you’ll want to look to the receivers for fantasy points in this one. T.Y. Hilton offers big play upside, while Andre Johnson provides old-man value. Andrew Luck is overpriced for this difficult of a matchup.
Buffalo Bills
The Bills are home underdogs against a capable but high-variance defense. Football Outsiders measures defensive variance (the consistency week-to-week of a team’s performance) and ranked the Colts in the bottom four in the NFL last year in terms of consistent performances. This means there’s potential for a letdown from the Indianapolis defense, so who on Buffalo’s offense can capitalize?
Tyrod Taylor (FD $5,000, DK $5,000) gets the start under center for Buffalo, and he provides a cheap, mobile quarterback option in a week when virtually every other passer is priced fairly given their expectations. As such, you can expect Taylor to be highly owned, but for good reason. Running quarterbacks are fantasy football cheat codes (hat tip to Rich Hribar), and Taylor represents the first true dual-threat quarterback the Colts have faced since 2013. During that season they lined up against three (Terrelle Pryor, Russell Wilson and Colin Kaepernick) mobile signal callers, and allowed two (Pryor and Wilson) to run for over 100 yards. The Colts’ defense may look a bit different than it did back then, but there are no notable changes to suggest they’ll be any better prepared to deal with a running quarterback, as they struggled to stop the run last year, grading out just outside of the bottom ten in Pro Football Focus’ run defense rankings. If Taylor runs for 60 yards, passes for 150, and finds the end zone in any way, shape, or form, he’ll have hit value for you at his affordable price tag. You just have to hope for limited turnovers, which isn’t a glaring strength or weakness of the Colts’ defense.
Is there anyone we can pair with Taylor in the Buffalo passing game? When our goal is 150 passing yards from a mobile quarterback in a home underdog situation, the answer is unsurprisingly “No.” Sammy Watkins (FD $7,600, DK $7,000) was extremely boom or bust last year, registering some huge games thanks to some explosive plays, but also failing to gain more than 35 total yards in nine contests. For $7,000 or more in salary, I’m passing given his quarterback situation and matchup (for at least some portion of this game) against Vontae Davis. With rumors earlier this summer that Davis would start shadowing top receivers, this is especially not worth the gamble. A still-injured Percy Harvin (FD $5,600, DK $4,400) takes away opportunities from the not-that-bad Robert Woods (FD $5,400, DK $3,500), so if both play, neither are rosterable, but if Harvin sits out, Woods may be worth a flier in a tournament, especially on DraftKings.
The Colts were one of the most vulnerable teams to tight ends last year, so if you’re banking on a Tyrod Taylor touchdown toss, Charles Clay (FD $5,000, DK $3,700) might be your best bet. The former Dolphin scored three times last season, and will line up in an offense coached by Greg Roman, who led a 49ers offense which featured a tight end either first or second in touchdown catches in 2011-2013 (Vernon Davis).
The running back situation in Buffalo is not extremely clear at the moment, which may steer us away from a matchup against a defense that wasn’t great at defending the run last year. The Colts allowed the 12th most points to opposing backs last season, and received below average marks from both PFF and Football Outsiders. LeSean McCoy (FD $8,400, DK $7,200) is supposedly on track to start Week 1, but an offseason hamstring injury doesn’t inspire confidence in the former Eagles back. Karlos Williams (FD $4,500, DK $3,000) would be in play if McCoy’s status took a turn for the worse, even though he’s dealing with an injury as well. But since Shady appears to be ready for opening day, we can start him in a favorable matchup, but with a negative game script, he’s not a core play this weekend.
Friday Injury Update: McCoy finished the week listed as probable. I feel a bit more comfortable with Shady in all formats in a favorable matchup with a head coach and coordinator who won’t be shy about running the ball.
The Takeaway: The Colts are vulnerable, but there’s not a lot to love on the Buffalo offense. Tyrod Taylor is a cheap QB option if he can limit turnovers, and LeSean McCoy is a running back option that’s tough to trust, but capable of a big day. No one else stands out apart from Robert Woods, should Percy Harvin be unable to go on Sunday.
Miami Dolphins at Washington Redskins
| Miami Dolphins | Washington Redskins | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Sunday – 1 p.m. | FedExField | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -3.5 | 43 | 23.25 | ||||||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 24.3 | 11 | 17 | 12 | Offense | 18.8 | 26 | 13 | 20 | |
| Opp. Defense | 26.3 | 29 | 28 | 15 | Opp. Defense | 23.3 | 23 | 12 | 24 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Washington Redskins | 32 | 5 | 28 | 30 | Miami Dolphins | 11 | 19 | 24 | 6 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Landry | 112 | 84 | 5 | 754 | Jackson | 95 | 56 | 6 | 1176 | |
| Stills | 83 | 63 | 3 | 929 | Garcon | 105 | 68 | 3 | 752 | |
| Jennings | 92 | 59 | 6 | 742 | Roberts | 73 | 36 | 2 | 474 | |
| Cameron | 48 | 24 | 2 | 424 | Reed | 65 | 50 | 0 | 465 | |
Another game, another road favorite as NFL’s Week 1 schedule promises a lot of competitive contests for visiting teams. The Dolphins get to face one of the worst defenses in the league, and also get to face one of the worst starting quarterbacks in the league. Vegas doesn’t expect a lot from this game, points-wise, but they do feel pretty confident in a Miami win. So do I.
The Quick Grind
MIA Matchup Rating: 7.0
WAS Matchup Rating: 4.5
Notable injuries and suspensions: Jay Ajayi (MIA, Out, Injury), Robert Griffin (WAS, Probable to be active, Not starting, Injury/Benched)
Miami Dolphins
Last season, Washington ranked first in points allowed to opposing quarterbacks, and third in points allowed to opposing receivers. They earned the worst coverage grade from Pro Football Focus, as well as the bottom spot in Football Outsiders’ DVOA against the pass. They also graded out as the worst run defense according to PFF, but didn’t allow as many fantasy points on the ground as they did through the air. That has me preferring to attack them with the Miami passing game.
Ryan Tannehill (FD $8,000, DK $7,400) is a rising star who picked up the quarterback position later on in his college career and really seems to be coming into his own. He has the athleticism of an average wideout yet plays under center, and is a capable thrower as well. He gets a fantastic matchup this weekend, and your only concern should be how much he has to throw against such a bad opponent. For a price that comes in a tier below the top options, I think Tannehill is a fine way to pivot from the likely very popular Sam Bradford, but with an understanding that the Miami passer is going to need to finish at his theoretical ceiling for that bold of a move to pay off. If you want a piece of this game, I’m more comfortable going with one of Tannehill’s receivers.
I profiled Jarvis Landry (FD $6,900, DK $5,600) in my Tale of the Tape column last season, and he rewarded my confidence in him with three touchdowns in the following two weeks, and consistent PPR performances through the rest of the season. He now doesn’t have to contend with Mike Wallace for targets, and should be the top option in the Miami aerial attack. Greg Jennings (FD $4,900, DK $4,300) will be next in line for Miami targets, and is a bargain way to get a piece of this game, but I don’t expect him to see a ton of volume. Tight end Jordan Cameron (FD $5,500, DK $3,800) faces a defense that struggled to contain the position a year ago, and offers touchdown upside at a weak position this weekend.
Washington were a bit better about defending the run last season from a results standpoint, and whether that’s because teams found it so easy to pass that they just declined to run, or because their PFF grades are a bit harsh, there’s still reason to be uneasy about loading up on runners against them. Terrance “Pot Roast” Knighton has been brought in to clog up the middle of the defense for Jay Gruden’s team, and Ryan Clark and his 24 missed tackles (per PFF) have retired, so while Lamar Miller (FD $7,300, DK $5,500) may get volume in a game his team should win easily, I don’t think he’s worth the price on FanDuel, and is in play on DraftKings only thanks to a slight discount and due to his ability as a receiver. Miller was targeted five or more times on five occasions last season, and five targets leading to three catches for 30 yards would be a nice boost to what could be a pedestrian rushing stat line for the “U” product.
The Takeaway: Washington is terrible against the pass, so invest in Jarvis Landry as a volume receiver, and Ryan Tannehill as a tournament pivot quarterback. Jordan Cameron has upside at the tight end position, and Lamar Miller is less appealing than he might seem at a glance, but is in play on DraftKings. The Miami defense is definitely an option against Kirk Cousins, who turns the ball over and is unlikely to lead his team on many scoring drives.
Washington Redskins
Kirk Cousins (FD $6,000, DK $5,000) has been named the starter for Washington, and since he’s not very good, that eliminates a lot of the appeal that this offense could have had with a competent starter in place. People cling to the idea that there’s potential for Cousins, but he struggles under pressure, and that will be his downfall against the Dolphins. Miami were one of the best teams at rushing the passer last year, with Cameron Wake wreaking havoc on opposing offensive lines, and that will leave Cousins throwing off of his back foot and making rushed decisions, leading to turnovers and inaccurate passes. Oh, and the Fins added Ndamukong Suh this summer. That won’t help Cousins feel more comfortable on Sunday.
With that in mind, the receiving options for Washington are out of play, especially considering the team total under 20. Even if you thought Cousins could piece together a decent game, there’s not enough scoring upside here to invest in a receiver like DeSean Jackson (FD $7,100, DK $6,800) or Pierre Garcon (FD $5,500, DK $5,200). Jordan Reed (FD $5,000, DK $3,300) is one of the more talented tight ends going this weekend, but Miami are very tough against his position, and the odds of him finding the end zone are pretty low. Other than Rob Gronkowski (who managed only seven catches on 19 targets against the Dolphins), tight ends only scored four times against Miami last season, and only one player at the position caught passes for more than 58 yards.
And while Miami was middle of the road against the run last year, they’ve added Suh to help bolster their defense against the ground game. Even if we assume they’ll be average again despite adding an All-Pro talent in the middle, I can’t justify spending up for Alfred Morris (FD $7,400, DK $5,500) when the similarly talented (if not more talented) player on the favored side of this matchup is the same price. There is no upside here that can’t be found with Lamar Miller, or with a player not participating in this game.
The Takeaway: There’s nothing to like here. The passing game won’t get going with Cousins under pressure, and the running game is limited by game flow, the presence of Suh, and DFS pricing. Fade away.
Carolina Panthers at Jacksonville Jaguars
| Carolina Panthers | Jacksonville Jaguars | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Sunday – 1 p.m. | EverBank Field | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -3 | 41 | 22 | 3 | 41 | 19 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 21.3 | 18 | 15 | 3 | Offense | 15.6 | 32 | 29 | 22 | |
| Defense | 25.8 | 28 | 26 | 28 | Defense | 20.8 | 15 | 3 | 9 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 14 | 30 | 16 | 15 | Carolina Panthers | 17 | 18 | 21 | 12 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Brown | 36 | 21 | 2 | 391 | Robinson | 81 | 48 | 2 | 548 | |
| Funchess | Hurns | 97 | 51 | 6 | 677 | |||||
| Ginn | 24 | 14 | 0 | 196 | Lee | 68 | 37 | 1 | 431 | |
| Olsen | 123 | 84 | 6 | 1008 | Thomas | 62 | 43 | 12 | 489 | |
Another game, another low Vegas total between two teams that don’t offer a ton of clear-cut options. I’m sure someone is going to win money this weekend by picking the right players from games like these, and they’re going to be quite lucky or incredibly insightful to accomplish such a task. The Jaguars are home underdogs (there are several of these this week) against a Panthers team that has an even worse offense than you remember from last year. Are there any DFS options in this one?
The Quick Grind
CAR Matchup Rating: 6.0
JAC Matchup Rating: 2.5
Notable injuries and suspensions: Kelvin Benjamin (CAR, Out, Injury), Julius Thomas (JAC, Out, Injury), Marqise Lee (JAC, Doubtful, Injury), Toby Gerhart (JAC, Questionable, Injury)
Carolina Panthers
The Panthers have a pretty decent matchup rating in this one as they take on the Jaguars, who were an easy target last year for DFS players. Running backs had especially prolific days against Jacksonville, who were often underdogs and who play at a fairly high pace. But there’s just not much talent in the lineup for Carolina.
Ted Ginn and Corey Brown will start at receiver for the Panthers, and that’s really all I need to say about the wideouts for this team. A lot of people think Devin Funchess is going to replace the injured Kelvin Benjamin, but he’s not even a starter, and frankly isn’t nearly as good as the injured FSU product. If you want a pass catcher for the Panthers, Greg Olsen (FD $5,900, DK $5,300) is your best option. The Jaguars were below average at defending tight ends, according to Football Outsiders’ DVOA and fantasy points allowed, and Olsen is by far the most talented and consistent player to line up with Cam Newton for Carolina.
Speaking of Cam Newton (FD $8,400, DK $7,600), he’d be in play if he was priced the same as Tyrod Taylor, but with Taylor representing such a discount for a player with similar upside (rushing yards, a very modest passing total and hopefully a touchdown or two), I’m not seeing any reason to roll with Cam here. Teams never needed to throw against the Jags last year, so despite grading out terribly in pass coverage at Pro Football Focus, they were middle of the road in terms of fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks and wideouts. Wait for Andrew Luck or some other high-volume passer to take on the Jags before paying up at QB against them.
Jonathan Stewart (FD $7,100, DK $5,800) is definitely in play, as Jacksonville got poor marks across the board as a run defense a year ago. Stewart is the unquestioned starter with DeAngelo Williams out of the picture, and we should see a continuation of his strong volume at the end of last season, when he carried for 12, 20, 22, 24 and 13 attempts in his final five games. The 12 and 13 are obviously not what we’re looking for, but the 22 and 24 came in close games against bad teams (the Bucs and Browns). He’ll need to figure out how to find the end zone more often than he did last season, but Jacksonville allowed 14 rushing scores last year, including six over the last six weeks. He’s in play everywhere as a good second tier running back option.
The Takeaway: Greg Olsen and Jonathan Stewart are in play in what should be good matchups for both, but otherwise, the Panthers just don’t have any names we can trust. As road favorites in a low-scoring game, the defense is an option, but not a great one.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Blake Bortles (FD $6,400, DK $5,900) looked great at times again this preseason, and as someone who absolutely loved him coming out of college, it’s hard for me to be objective about him. But the Panthers were an average pass defense last season and should be as good, if not better, this year, and Bortles’ preseason accomplishments aren’t investment-worthy on their own. I’m taking a wait and see approach, especially with a cheaper, higher floor quarterback option in a game with a higher total.
But because I think Bortles is capable of dishing out a touchdown or two, his receivers are in play, but with an implied capped upside. Allen Robinson (FD $6,100, DK $5,400) will likely see the coverage of veteran Charles “Peanut” Tillman, which could lead to an interception or fumble at some point, but could also lead to the young, talented wideout getting past the aging corner for a score. Last year’s early season breakout player Allen Hurns (FD $4,600, DK $4,000) spent over half of his snaps in the slot last year, but may shift outside if Marqise Lee is unable to suit up. That would open up a spot for FSU rookie Rashad Greene (FD $4,500, DK $3,000), who would draw a tough matchup with Bene Benwikere. Neither of the latter two wideouts hold much value, as Robinson is clearly the top option for the Jags. He never saw fewer than seven targets in games he played with Blake Bortles last season, and I expect that volume to continue. He’s playable in all formats.
When you think of the Carolina defense, you likely think of Luke Kuechly, and assume they’re pretty good against the run. And you’d be right in most cases, but at times they were vulnerable to opposing backs, finishing with a pretty high variance game log allowed to runners. Le’Veon Bell, Gio Bernard, LeGarrette Blount and Mark Ingram all eclipsed 100 yards against the Panthers, while every other back that saw 15 or more carries against them had 61 or fewer yards on the ground. T.J. Yeldon (FD $7,000, DK $5,500) is a rookie with the potential to be on the same level as the four backs mentioned above, and I wouldn’t rule out a good game from the Alabama product, but he’s already priced like a starter and doesn’t offer a ton of upside beyond his price tag. I’m staying away.
The Takeaway: The Jaguars have a low total and aren’t loaded with talent on offense, but Allen Robinson could find the end zone. He’s in play, and there’s nothing else to feel great about in this one.
Seattle Seahawks at St. Louis Rams
| Seattle Seahawks | St. Louis Rams | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Sunday – 1 p.m. | Edward Jones Dome | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -3.5 | 41.5 | 22.5 | 3.5 | 41.5 | 19 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 25.0 | 10 | 19 | 1 | Offense | 20.3 | 20 | 22 | 21 | |
| Opp. Defense | 22.1 | 20 | 22 | 17 | Opp. Defense | 14.9 | 1 | 1 | 3 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| St. Louis Rams | 8 | 11 | 27 | 4 | Seattle Seahawks | 1 | 9 | 1 | 17 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Baldwin | 98 | 66 | 3 | 833 | Britt | 84 | 48 | 3 | 762 | |
| Kearse | 69 | 38 | 1 | 552 | Austin | 44 | 31 | 2 | 466 | |
| Matthews | Bailey | 44 | 30 | 1 | 448 | |||||
| Graham | 125 | 85 | 10 | 889 | Cook | 97 | 52 | 3 | 634 | |
Two of the slowest offenses face two of the toughest defenses from a year ago. I think you already know where this write-up is headed. You’re not going to find a lot of high-ceiling plays here, but let’s comb through and check if there are any players we can consider as filler or cheap fliers.
The Quick Grind
SEA Matchup Rating: 4.5
STL Matchup Rating: 0.5
Notable injuries and suspensions: Paul Richardson (SEA, Out, Injury), Tre Mason (STL, Questionable/Game-time Decision, Injury), Todd Gurley (STL, Out, Injury)
Seattle Seahawks
If you’re targeting this game, you’re going to look at the Seattle side first. After all, they’re favored, and they were in the Super Bowl last year. You won’t be the only one thinking that way, as a lot of the public are going to want to roster some Seahawks based on name-value alone. There’s a case to be made to totally fade this game, even if you like some of the options.
Russell Wilson (FD $8,800, DK $7,800) is priced like a top-tier passer, but faces a team that was fairly stingy to opposing quarterbacks last year. Signal callers averaged 16 points per game against the Rams, and since we’re looking for 20+ points out of Wilson to pay off his price tag, I’m not sure it’s a wise investment. Yes, Wilson scored a ton of points in his 300-passing-yard, 100-rushing-yard performance against STL last season, but he also failed to score a touchdown and barely cracked double digits in their other meeting. There’s upside here, as Wilson can obviously pick up points in a hurry with his arm and legs, but if you’re banking on 36 passing attempts and 7 rushing attempts like we saw in that Week 7 fantasy goldmine from Wilson last year, you’re taking a pretty big risk. He’s in play if you find plenty of value you like elsewhere, but I’m not going out of my way to invest in him.
The Rams were on par with the Seahawks in terms of fantasy points allowed to opposing running backs last season, and Football Outsiders DVOA ranked both run defense units similarly as well. You wouldn’t try to figure out a way to get a running back in your lineup against Seattle, so why try to get one in your lineup against St. Louis? Because his name is Marshawn Lynch (FD $8,600, DK $7,300) and matchups matter about as much to him as the NFL’s policy on interacting with the media. The Rams held him in check (for the most part) in both meetings last year, but Lynch had huge games against division rivals and top run defenses from San Francisco and Arizona down the stretch. He’s always in play, and would be my preferred method of gaining exposure to the Seahawks, if that’s something you insist upon doing.
The Rams locked down tight ends last year, which takes Jimmy Graham (FD $6,900, DK $5,600) out of the picture for me. He has touchdown upside, but you’re paying for his volume in New Orleans (especially on FanDuel), and he won’t see as many targets as he did during his prime with the Saints. He’ll be a tournament play on occasion this season, but I’m not investing in him in cash games unless his price drops a bit closer to the rest of the pack. He’s a better player than Jordan Cameron, but I wouldn’t be surprised if both have similar lines this weekend, and Cameron has a much better price tag.
Janoris Jenkins had a poor year last year at cornerback, showing moments of brilliance but also allowing a ton of yards and touchdowns. E.J. Gaines had a great year, but he’s hurt, which means Trumaine Johnson steps in to play corner for the Rams. He’s more on par with Jenkins, according to Pro Football Focus’ grades, and, therefore, these matchups are exploitable. But who do we roster to take advantage? Doug Baldwin (FD $6,100, DK $4,600) saw the most targets down the stretch last year for Seattle, but that came with massive ups and downs. Jermaine Kearse (FD $5,300, DK $3,700) will see a few looks, and youngster Tyler Lockett (FD $4,800, DK $3,000) is drawing rave reviews, but with a star tight end on board, there’s not going to be a lot of throws to go around. And with nine passing touchdowns being spread across seven players over the final eight games last season, there’s no clear option in this passing game. All of these players are tournament plays at best.
The Takeaway: As much as you may want to target Seattle, there’s just not a lot here to like. Marshawn Lynch is almost always in play, as matchup doesn’t really dictate his ability to have a good game. Otherwise, the passing game options are best suited for a GPP flier or two, and the defense may be the best place to invest your money.
St. Louis Rams
The Rams have one of the lowest totals of the weekend, are in a game with two teams featuring incredibly low offensive paces, and face a defense that is out-of-this-world good. Their 0.5 matchup rating may be the lowest we see for a home team all season. Kam Chancellor is unlikely to play for Seattle, but if you think that moves the needle at all in this matchup, you’re grossly overestimating what the Rams can do on offense.
Nick Foles (FD $6,400, DK $5,300) has never played against the Seahawks, and while there is the possibility that he could surprise and have a decent, efficient game as the Rams try to protect him from the pass rush and dangerous cornerbacks, it’s much more likely that Foles has a bad game and struggles to stay on his feet. Greg Robinson couldn’t stop a pass rusher to save his life (seven sacks, nine hits and 11 hurries allowed on 434 pass blocking snaps per PFF), and will be starting at left tackle for the Rams this year. Second-round rookie Rob Havenstein will start at the other tackle spot, and third-round rookie Jamon Brown will start at left guard. That doesn’t bode well for Foles’ health and well-being this weekend against a pass rush that featured two of the top six pass rushing 4-3 ends according to Pro Football Focus.
Tre Mason (FD $7,300, DK $5,000) is dealing with a lingering injury, and even if he were healthy it’d be hard to sell him as a play against a defense that allowed a combined 261 yards on 91 carries with only one touchdown to opposing running backs over the final five weeks of last year’s regular season. One of those backs was Benny Cunningham (FD $5,100, DK $3,000), who did manage to catch seven passes for 57 yards out of the backfield in Week 17 against Pete Carroll’s team, and who also caught five passes for 46 yards and a touchdown in the two team’s first matchup. No matter what Mason’s status is, Cunningham should be involved in this game, and is the only Ram I’m going to have any exposure to this weekend.
Brian Quick (FD $5,400, DK $4,200)? No thanks. Same with Kenny Britt (FD $5,400, DK $4,800) and Jared Cook (FD $5,200, DK $2,900). The defensive backs for Seattle are just too good, and while there is some merit to targeting them with a tight end, I don’t think Cook is the guy you want to do that with.
The Takeaway: Benny Cunningham has PPR potential, and should be on a DraftKings lineup or two, but otherwise you don’t need to waste any time considering Rams players this week. Avoid them all, and their defense probably isn’t worth a pick due to suspect defensive backs.