NFL Grind Down: Week 11 - Page Three

by LeoTPP Last Updated 2015-11-20 17:57:51

Dallas Cowboys at Miami Dolphins

Dallas Cowboys						Miami Dolphins
Sunday – 1 p.m.						Sun Life Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		0	47.5	23.75				0	47.5	23.75
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	18.4	29	25	7		Offense	21.2	24	10	18
Opp. Defense	25.0	21	22	31		Opp. Defense	23.8	19	13	15
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Miami Dolphins	24	31	17	21		Dallas Cowboys	8	30	7	11
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Bryant	33	17	1	209		Landry	89	60	4	688
Williams	50	25	2	373		Matthews	57	42	4	651
Beasley	42	32	2	334		Stills	34	16	1	279
Witten	62	49	2	445		Cameron	47	21	1	268

The Quick Grind

Notable injuries and suspensions: Darren McFadden (DAL, Questionable)

DAL Matchup Rating: 6.0
MIA Matchup Rating: 5.5

Dallas Cowboys

Quarterback: Tony Romo (FD $8,000, DK $6,000) is back! And judging by Thursday-lock contests, a majority of daily fantasy players might not be aware that the struggling Cowboys will be getting their most important player back under center for a matchup against the mediocre Miami Dolphins this week. Romo is one of the more talented and efficient quarterbacks in the league, but is hamstrung by his team’s gameplan, which focuses on keeping the ball on the ground and running down the clock as often as possible. Dallas has the slowest pace in the league, checking in a solid three seconds per play behind the Seahawks, who rank 25th. For reference, the gap between Seattle in 25th and Baltimore in fifth is only 2.4 seconds per play. (These pace stats according to Football Outsiders). Still, Romo will get every opportunity to flourish against a defense ranked 26th against the pass according to FO, and 26th in yards per attempt allowed this year. While both of these pass defenses have struggled in terms of per-play efficiency this season, the Miami defense has compounded that issue by giving up touchdowns in bunches, allowing eight more scores than Dallas has so far this year. Romo is a sneaky GPP play in a solid matchup this weekend.

Running Game: The running game for Dallas will depend on the status of Darren McFadden (FD $6,800, DK $5,000). If he’s good to go, he’ll be a top option, as Miami is one of the league’s worst run defenses, having allowed more points per game to running backs than any team but the Chargers. The Dolphins have allowed over 1400 yards from scrimmage and 12 total touchdowns to running backs this year, which means we can almost pencil in McFadden for 100+ yards and a score if he’s healthy and gets the start. If he’s not good to go, dig around on your favorite fantasy site to see if Rod Smith is available, as he’d be the player most likely to get carries in McFadden’s absence.

Pass Catchers: Dez Bryant (FD $8,400, DK $7,700) is going to play with a chip on his shoulder this weekend, as he’s been stuck with crappy quarterback play since returning from injury. He gets his preferred signal caller back this week, and the duo should return to their prolific production of old right away. Miami ranks last in the NFL at defending opposing WR1, according to Football Outsiders, dispelling any notion that Brent Grimes is a corner to fear as his career draws to a close. Bryant’s presence takes all of the potential out of the remaining Dallas passing game options, as the limited volume for this pass attack should go through Bryant first, and his big-play potential sets him apart from the pack.

The Takeaway: Romo and Bryant are strong tournament options, while McFadden, if healthy, is a high-volume back at a mid-tier price in a great matchup, and should be used in all formats.

Miami Dolphins

Quarterback: The best defensive unit in this game is the Dallas pass defense, which ranks 17th in DVOA and numberFire’s rankings, and is bottom ten in points allowed to quarterbacks, wide receivers and tight ends. Dallas slows the game down so well, and have a good enough defense to keep things under control and limit the big play. Ryan Tannehill (FD $7,000, DK $5,100) isn’t a player to target in less-than-ideal matchups, especially when he’s been kept out of the end zone in two of his last three starts. Prior to that three-game span, he had quite a few multi-touchdown games, so he’s not completely out of consideration. He’s just one of the least appealing tournament plays this weekend.

Running Game: The Miami run defense is bad, and the Dallas run defense doing their best to keep up with their Week 11 opponents. The teams are separated by hundredths of a point in terms of FanDuel points allowed per game to running backs, while Dallas is actually ranked worse in Football Outsiders’ and numberFire’s metrics against the run. Lamar Miller (FD $7,400, DK $6,200) is unlikely to see more than 20 touches in this game, but that’s enough for him to do plenty of damage against a defense that has allowed 50 or more rushing yards and a touchdown on three different occasions to backs with 13, 11 and 18 carries so far this season. Eight different backs have caught at least 40 yards worth of passes against the Cowboys this season, as well, which is another way Miller can rack up the fantasy points in his limited opportunities. If part-time backs Doug Martin, Ryan Mathews and LeGarrette Blount can succeed against Dallas, so can Miller.

Pass Catchers: According to the Dallas Morning News, via Rotoworld, Bryon Jones is likely to start outside at corner for Dallas this week, which flips everything we’ve come to expect about a pass defense that covered slot receivers fairly well this year, but struggled against outside receivers. Jarvis Landry (FD $7,200, DK $6,700) is more appealing if Jones moves outside, as the slot corner will find plenty of open space without the freakish athlete tracking him all over the field. Versatile slot receivers Julian Edelman and Jordan Matthews had solid days against the Cowboys, anyway, so I’m not sure Jones is a reason to fear a slot receiver against Dallas, but removing him from the equation makes things very appealing for Landry. Rishard Matthews (FD $6,400, DK $4,700) will instead see some coverage from Jones, which reduces his appeal just a bit, but not entirely. He still has big play potential, and should line up against Brandon Carr often enough to get a chance at a deep ball or two. Dallas has been pretty good against tight ends this year, but again, that may be partially due to the coverage of Jones, who is shifting outside. But Jordan Cameron (FD $4,900, DK $2,500) is too risky, even for his bargain salary. He has fallen out of the offense after starting the season as one of the team’s top targets.

The Takeaway: Lamar Miller is a top play at running back, while Jarvis Landry is a solid play at receiver, especially in PPR formats. Rishard Matthews and Ryan Tannehill are GPP fliers.

Washington Redskins at Carolina Panthers

Washington Redskins						Carolina Panthers
Sunday – 1 p.m.						Bank of America Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		7	45	19				-7	45	26
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	22.8	17	16	17		Offense	28.3	3	26	3
Opp. Defense	19.4	5	12	13		Opp. Defense	23.2	16	11	30
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Carolina Panthers	9	20	6	16		Washington Redskins	12	17	23	6
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Garcon	67	43	3	430		Brown	28	17	3	262
Jackson	12	5	0	59		Ginn	59	25	3	451
Crowder	55	42	1	404		Funchess	27	12	1	202
Reed	58	41	6	397		Olsen	77	45	5	664

The Quick Grind

Notable injuries and suspensions: Corey Brown (CAR, Questionable)

WAS Matchup Rating: 2.5
CAR Matchup Rating: 6.5

Washington Redskins

Quarterback: In two of his last three starts, Kirk Cousins (FD $6,900, DK $5,300) has shredded poor NFC South defenses (the Bucs and Saints) for seven touchdowns, no interceptions, over 300 yards in each contest, and a completion percentage over 80. These are obvious outliers in a season that has seen Cousins throw only one touchdown in every other start, with nine interceptions in those seven other appearances. Only one-third of the quarterbacks to face the Panthers this season have thrown for multiple touchdowns, and the only one with more than two touchdown throws was Aaron Rodgers. The other two to throw for two scores, Andrew Luck and Jameis Winston, combined for seven interceptions. This is a very good defense that is either going to limit Cousins, force him into turnovers, or both. They rank second in both Football Outsiders’ DVOA against the pass, and numberFire’s team rankings against opposing passing games. Cousins is not in play this week, as his ownership in tournaments will be higher than it should be for this matchup.

Running Game: Both Alfred Morris (FD $5,400, DK $3,900) and Matt Jones (FD $6,100, DK $4,000) went over 100 total yards last weekend against the Saints, the first time since Week 2 that a Washington back had 100+ yards from scrimmage. Jones is the only running back to score a rushing touchdown for Jay Gruden’s team this year, while Morris has more attempts and yards overall. And then there’s Chris Thompson (FD $5,100, DK $3,200), who catches a handful of passes per game, in a role similar to that of Darren Sproles with the Eagles. The way this running game is divided up makes it tough to trust, especially against a decent run defense unit that ranks 13th in DVOA against rushing attacks. Since Week 4, a Washington running back has received more than 11 carries in a game only once, so there is no volume we can trust in this phase of the game.

Pass Catchers: Cousins only had to throw 25 passes against the terrible Saints defense last weekend, and he spread those targets across all of his pass catchers. Nine different players caught passes, and none received more than five targets. Jordan Reed (FD $5,800, DK $4,900) had the big day most expected, but didn’t see the volume many anticipated, instead converting on two touchdown receptions on only three catches. But he remains one of Cousins’ favorite targets, and is always in play at a very thin, unreliable position. Out wide, DeSean Jackson (FD $6,100, DK $5,100) and Pierre Garcon (FD $6,000, DK $4,300) both stand the chance of going up against star corner Josh Norman at some point, and we can’t be sure if Norman will lock in on either player, or just play a side. According to Mike Clay of Pro Football Focus, the Panthers have shadowed an opposing receiver four times, with a notable instance of Norman following Vincent Jackson of the Bucs, while Charles Tillman covered Mike Evans. This makes it very tough to predict if there will be shadowing, who will shadow who, and which matchups are the best to target. I am confident that Jamison Crowder (FD $5,800, DK $3,800) will see the weaker slot coverage of Bene Benwikere, but with so many healthy targets in the passing game, I’m not sure he’s worth the risk. The same could be said of the rest of this passing attack. This is too tough of a matchup with too much uncertainty for anyone to invest with confidence.

The Takeaway: The Carolina defense is tough, and Washington is due for a bit of a reality check after facing two of the worst defenses in the league over the last three weeks. Jamison Crowder is the top play here on PPR sites, but there are better plays elsewhere on this weekend slate.

Carolina Panthers

Quarterback: The Panthers are one of the NFL’s best teams, and Cam Newton (FD $8,600, DK $6,900) is one of the NFL’s best quarterbacks. But the Panthers don’t always need their star quarterback to do heavy lifting to win games, and are happy to put a game away by running the ball and chewing up the clock on offense. As heavy favorites against Washington, this is in play again this weekend, but that doesn’t mean Newton can’t get to 20+ fantasy points before the game gets out of hand. He has 20 or more rushing yards in every game this season, and six rushing touchdowns. If he hits those two milestones this week, that’s eight points, and he’d only need 250 yards and a couple of passing scores to get to 20 fantasy points. Opposing quarterbacks are on a four-game multi-touchdown streak against Washington, and Nick Foles is the only passer to fail to reach 200 yards against this defense, which ranks 19th in Football Outsiders’ DVOA against the pass. Newton isn’t cheap, but his rushing ability and the matchup leave him in the tournament play discussion.

Running Game: Since Week 5, Washington has allowed 153 yards and a touchdown to Devonta Freeman, 146 yards and a touchdown to Chris Ivory, 136 yards to Doug Martin, 129 yards to LeGarrette Blount, and 123 yards on only 16 carries to Mark Ingram and Tim Hightower. It’s safe to say that the run defense is vulnerable. Jonathan Stewart (FD $7,000, DK $4,400) has received 20 or more carries in each of his last five starts, and has four touchdowns over that span. His TD upside is limited by Newton’s rushing ability near the goal-line, but he should be good for 20+ carries, which as we’ve seen recently, should be enough for 100+ yards against this porous defense. He’ll need to score to be worth selection on FanDuel, but with a 100-yard bonus on DraftKings, he could be a wise investment even if he doesn’t find the end zone. He’s a secondary cash-game play on DK, and a tournament option on FD.

Pass Catchers: Greg Olsen (FD $6,400, DK $6,200) is likely going to be the top tight end this weekend in terms of ownership, and for good reason. He has 60 yards or a touchdown in all but two games this season, and is a target machine for a team with a pretty good quarterback. On FanDuel, where all of the tight ends are priced in one big cluster between $5,500 and $6,500, he’s in play in any format, but on DraftKings, where cheaper options are available, you can find significantly better values. Ted Ginn (FD $5,200, DK $3,500) continues to be the top target at wide receiver, but he’s far too volatile for anything but a cheap GPP lineup.

The Takeaway: Newton and Stewart are both strong choices, and Olsen is viable on sites where tight ends are priced similarly and there are no obvious bargain plays. The Carolina defense is in play, as well, as Vegas anticipates Washington to be held under 20 points, and Kirk Cousins is due for a couple of turnovers in this tough matchup.

Cincinnati Bengals at Arizona Cardinals

Cincinnati Bengals						Arizona Cardinals
Sunday – 4:05 p.m.						Univ. of Phoenix Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		5	48.5	21.75				-5	48.5	26.75
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	26.1	6	12	11		Offense	39.0	1	32	32
Opp. Defense	32.0	32	6	22		Opp. Defense	16.9	1	14	12
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Arizona Cardinals	4	10	10	4		Cincinnati Bengals	3	14	9	14
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Green	80	55	4	769		Fitzgerald	85	65	7	836
Sanu	32	22	1	339		Floyd	46	27	5	432
Jones	58	35	3	458		Brown	54	37	3	575
Eifert	61	40	9	460		Fells	16	12	2	167

The Quick Grind

Notable injuries and suspensions: Michael Floyd, John Brown (ARI, Questionable)

CIN Matchup Rating: 4.5
ARI Matchup Rating: 6.5

Cincinnati Bengals

Quarterback: If you looked at the Bengals schedule during this middle portion of the season, you would have never picked the Texans as the team they’d stumble against. Instead, you’d probably point to the Cardinals, who have one of the league’s best defenses, as the most likely source of a loss, and a poor game from Andy Dalton (FD $7,900, DK $6,600). So how will the Bengals respond to their letdown last week? Dalton is starting to show signs of regression, as two of his last three starts have been pretty disappointing in otherwise favorable matchups. The Cardinals rank fourth in DVOA against the pass, and have talented corners and safeties ready to track down errant throws from the TCU product. This isn’t the week for Dalton to get back on track with a big performance, and with several solid options at the position this weekend, he should be avoided.

Running Game: The Cardinals are just as good against the run as they are against the pass, and they haven’t allowed a rusher to gain more than 42 yards on the ground since Week 6. Todd Gurley is the only back to go got a huge game against this defense, and Jeremy Hill (FD $6,500, DK $5,000) and Giovani Bernard (FD $6,300, DK $4,500) are not on that level of talent. Backs have been able to snag a few passes out of the backfield against the Cardinals, including a ten-catch day for Theo Riddick earlier this year, so Bernard holds some appeal as a check-down option in the offense, and he’ll also see a boost in value as the Bengals will likely trail for most of this contest. Bernard is the top option on this offense, but he’s still not very appealing compared to other backs in other matchups this week.

Pass Catchers: The Cardinals shut down tight ends at an elite level, ranking first in DVOA against the position. This rules out Tyler Eifert (FD $6,200, DK $5,900). A.J. Green (FD $8,200, DK $7,700) is never out of consideration, but Patrick Peterson is playing well this year, and should be able to keep up with Green on most passing downs. Marvin Jones (FD $5,400, DK $4,300) will get a more favorable matchup with Jerraud Powers, and is therefore a much better dollar per point option if you think the Bengals get things done through the air in this tough matchup.

The Takeaway: The Bengals are in a tough spot, coming off of their first loss on a short week and facing one of the league’s best defenses. Gio Bernard and Marvin Jones are the top plays, but neither should be used in cash games.

Arizona Cardinals

Quarterback: The Bengals slipped up on offense in recent weeks, but they’re still a formidable foe on defense, ranking eighth in Football Outsiders weighted defensive metric, which favors recent results more heavily. They rank ninth against the pass, and 26th in fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks, which is reason for many to worry about the upside of Carson Palmer (FD $8,200, DK $6,700). But with a three-touchdown performance against the Seahawks under his belt, should we really be worried about Palmer in tough matchups? He has great weapons in the passing game and has been playing at an elite level all season, throwing touchdowns at an elite rate and showing excellent efficiency. He leads the league in touchdown percentage, yards per attempt, yards per completion, and QBR. He’s an option for any format on any weekend, Week 11 against the Bengals included.

Running Game: It’s not always going to be pretty, but the Cardinals are going to continue to feed Chris Johnson (FD $6,800, DK $4,700) the ball and establish the run to keep defenses honest. Johnson has 55 carries in his last two games, and while he’s averaged close to three yards per carry on those attempts, it proves that Bruce Arians and company are going to give him every opportunity to break free on the ground. The Bengals rank tenth in DVOA against the run, and going back a couple of weeks past some cupcake matchups, allowed over 150 total yards to the Pittsburgh backs in Week 8, 90 yards and a touchdown in Week 6, and a huge game for Thomas Rawls in Week 5, and Jamaal Charles in Week 4. There are no guarantees against a talented defense like the one in Cincy, but Johnson has hope for a big game based on this handful of games in recent weeks. He’s a secondary tournament option.

Pass Catchers: The top two wideout performances against the Bengals this year have come from Steve Smith and Jeremy Maclin, which opens the door for a big game from one or both of the outside receivers for the Cardinals. Michael Floyd (FD $6,400, DK $3,800) (if healthy) and John Brown (FD $5,700, DK $5,200) will both likely see a healthy amount of snaps against Dre Kirkpatrick, the below-replacement-level corner opposite Adam Jones, who has been among the best in the league this year according to PFF. If Floyd is out, Brown becomes a much more appealing option, as he’ll see a higher concentration of Palmer’s throws and should play plenty of snaps in favorable matchups. Larry Fitzgerald (FD $7,400, DK $7,200) will spend most of his time locked up against Leon Hall in the slot, and while Hall has played well this year, Fitzgerald will move around and get his chances, and is worthwhile in tournaments thanks to his touchdown upside.

The Takeaway: Palmer, Johnson and Brown are the three top options for the Cardinals, who look likely to perform well, even with less-than-ideal matchups against a decent Bengal defense. Larry Fitzgerald is in play, as well.

San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks

San Francisco 49ers						Seattle Seahawks
Sunday – 4:25 p.m.						CenturyLink Field
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		13	40	13.5				-13	40	26.5
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	14.9	32	30	24		Offense	22.1	20	24	4
Opp. Defense	19.9	7	2	10		Opp. Defense	22.0	14	29	14
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Seattle Seahawks	5	2	4	27		San Francisco 49ers	25	28	27	15
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Boldin	54	31	2	372		Baldwin	50	38	3	479
Smith	35	18	2	386		Kearse	33	22	1	348
Patton	28	17	1	234		Lockett	29	21	0	261
McDonald	16	9	0	64		Graham	63	41	2	491

The Quick Grind

Notable injuries and suspensions: Carlos Hyde (SF, Doubtful), Anquan Boldin (SF, Questionable), Doug Baldwin, Marshawn Lynch (SEA, Questionable)

SF Matchup Rating: 1.0
SEA Matchup Rating: 6.5

San Francisco 49ers

Quarterback: I am sure that there are statistics somewhere that could justify starting Blaine Gabbert (FD $6,000, DK $5,000) against the Seahawks, but I am not going to go through the trouble of finding them. One of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL facing a defense that ranks 30th in fantasy points per game to passers, and fifth in numberFire’s pass defense rankings? No, thank you.

Running Game: The Seahawks are even better against the run, allowing the fewest points per game using FanDuel scoring, and ranking fourth in nF’s metrics. With Carlos Hyde likely out, I’m not going to sort through the mix of free agent-level running backs to find one to start against Seattle.

Pass Catchers: Anquan Boldin (FD $5,700, DK $4,000) is a really good football player, but he’s dealing with a nagging injury, and will be held back by a tough matchup and a bad quarterback. He’s the only 49er remotely worthy of consideration, and even then, he’s unlikely to wind up on any of my rosters.

The Takeaway: The 49ers have an implied team total of just 14 points. This is one of the lowest totals you’ll see in this modern era of NFL football, and shows just how tough of a time the Niners will have scoring points.

Seattle Seahawks

Quarterback: The Seahawks have been struggling a bit this season, but a home game against their rivals should be the spark they need to get a stretch run going as the playoffs draw closer. Russell Wilson (FD $7,600, DK $5,900) has thrown just one touchdown in eight of his nine starts this year, and has yet to run for a score, which leaves his ceiling disappointingly low. And considering the ease with which his Seahawks will likely beat the Niners, he doesn’t seem on the verge of a big game, as he won’t be needed all that often. There are better ways to spend your salary at QB this weekend, even with an easy matchup with the Niners. But you can fire him up in a tournament lineup or two, because the upside is there, even if we haven’t seen it this year.

Running Game: Marshawn Lynch (FD $8,100, DK $6,700) is one of the top overall plays on the weekend, despite his recent struggles. Beast Mode faces a defense that ranks 25th in DVOA against the run, and has allowed the sixth-most points per game to backs this year. Just a few weeks ago, Lynch had 122 rushing yards and a touchdown against the Niners, and he should be able to repeat that performance at home as a huge favorite.

Pass Catchers: Russell Wilson only had to throw 24 passes in these two teams’ meeting in October, and those targets were spread across a handful of pass catchers. That’s a common theme for this offense, Doug Baldwin (FD $5,400, DK $3,500) and Jimmy Graham (FD $5,800, DK $4,900) are the players most likely to emerge from the crowd and have a big game. Either are fine tournament plays in tandem with Wilson, as they could score a touchdown or two early on before the Seahawks hit the brakes and coast to victory.

The Takeaway: It’s tough to rely on the passing game in what should be a blowout, but Marshawn Lynch should see plenty of action, boss. The defense and special teams are obviously among the best options at the position this weekend, as the Niners are turnover prone and unlikely to score more than 14 points.

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