NFL Grind Down: Week 15 - Page Two
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Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans
| Jacksonville Jaguars | Houston Texans | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 39 | 16.5 | -6 | 39 | 22.5 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 18.5 | 27 | 23 | 21 | Offense | 17.6 | 28 | 30 | 5 | |
| Opp. Defense | 21.1 | 13 | 5 | 18 | Opp. Defense | 26.0 | 27 | 2 | 23 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Houston Texans | 6 | 18 | 5 | 5 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 7 | 16 | 6 | 9 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Robinson | 118 | 57 | 6 | 639 | Hopkins | 117 | 60 | 4 | 701 | |
| Hurns | 76 | 35 | 3 | 477 | Fuller | 71 | 37 | 2 | 530 | |
| Lee | 86 | 54 | 2 | 728 | Miller | 28 | 15 | 1 | 99 | |
| Koyack | 16 | 13 | 0 | 122 | Fiedorowicz | 75 | 48 | 3 | 505 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: Allen Hurns (JAX WR) – Out (Hamstring) / Denard Robinson (JAX RB) – Out (Ankle) / C.J. Fiedorowicz (HOU TE) – Out (Concussion)
JAX Matchup Rating: 5.5
HOU Matchup Rating: 6.0
Jacksonville Jaguars
Quarterback: The Jaguars carry one of the lowest team totals of the week, as they are projected to score just under 17 points against the Texans in this game. Houston has picked up their play defensively of late, and they frustrated Andrew Luck in his home stadium a week ago. It hasn’t been the year that most people expected for Blake Bortles, as he has an unimpressive 21/15 TD/INT ratio through 13 games. There are better options out there, and you definitely don’t have to take a shot on Bortles in a tough road matchup.
Running Backs: It certainly wasn’t pretty last week, but T.J. Yeldon was reasonably good if you played him as a value running back on a PPR site like DraftKings. He managed 59 rushing yards on 17 carries, and he added 31 receiving yards on a team-high seven catches. That’s 16 points in a PPR format, and that will do at his bargain basement salary tag. This is another tough matchup, but you can consider Yeldon if both Chris Ivory and Denard Robinson are forced to sit out for another week. Keep an eye on the news for a potential update here.
SATURDAY UPDATE – Ivory is back this week to split work with Yeldon. Avoid this spot.
Pass Catchers: It has been a frustrating year for Allen Robinson, and I’m sure he can relate a lot to DeAndre Hopkins on the other side of this game. Perhaps they can have a beer together after the game. Robinson played well in the first meeting between these two teams, and Houston has been dealing with some injuries in their secondary. Robinson’s matchup takes a hit if Johnathan Joseph returns for this game, but you can definitely consider him on DraftKings where he is priced at just $4,400. I would certainly opt for him over Hopkins or Fuller on the other side of this game. He is barely more expensive than Marqise Lee on both major sites, and I would certainly opt for Robinson over chasing the random big game from Lee.
The Takeaway: Don’t get too excited about rostering Jacksonville players this week, as their team total is one of the lowest of the week. T.J. Yeldon is a reasonable punt at running back only if Ivory and Denard Robinson are ruled out again. Allen Robinson is a reasonable play (and might even be cash game viable) on DK, where he is priced like a scrub. That’s about it, other than the obvious consideration of the Texans defense the turnover-prone Bortles.
Houston Texans
Quarterback: Somehow, the Texans are tied for first place in the AFC South. They got an impressive road win over the Colts last week. Naturally, it wasn’t because of quarterback play. Brock Osweiler completed just 14 of 24 passes for 147 yards and an interception in the game. He should be near the bottom of your list of quarterbacks every week. He could possibly be dead last.
Running Backs: It appears as though the Texans are managing Lamar Miller a little bit as we head down the stretch. He has been banged up for the entire season, and he has played on less than 50% of the offensive snaps in two straight weeks. However, there should be enough carries to go around if the Texans continue to employ a run-heavy game plan. Miller saw 21 carries last week, and he was effective in the process, turning them into 107 yards and a score. Alfred Blue logged an additional 16 carries, as Houston ran the ball a whopping 41 times. This isn’t as good of a matchup, so I will likely avoid this newfound time share in Week 15. There are plenty of other good running back options to where you don’t have to take a chance on a banged up Lamar Miller.
Pass Catchers: Not a single Houston pass catcher caught more than two passes last week. I feel really bad for DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller. They are super talented, but you just can’t play them, especially against a reasonably good secondary. I won’t even consider C.J. Fiedorowicz at this point, and he has been ruled out for this game with a concussion.
The Takeaway: Even though the Texans are at home, are tied for first place, and are healthy home favorites here, I’m just not that interested. The passing game is a mess, and the running game features a lead back that hasn’t been healthy all year. Stick to the defense if you want to play anyone from Houston.
Cleveland Browns at Buffalo Bills
| Cleveland Browns | Buffalo Bills | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 42.5 | 16 | -10.5 | 42.5 | 26.5 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 15.9 | 31 | 26 | 25 | Offense | 25.0 | 10 | 31 | 1 | |
| Opp. Defense | 23.2 | 17 | 8 | 28 | Opp. Defense | 28.8 | 31 | 15 | 31 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Buffalo Bills | 9 | 24 | 10 | 13 | Cleveland Browns | 31 | 31 | 20 | 31 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Pryor | 117 | 63 | 4 | 858 | Watkins | 29 | 16 | 1 | 235 | |
| Coleman | 55 | 23 | 3 | 334 | Woods | 63 | 43 | 1 | 522 | |
| Hawkins | 45 | 26 | 3 | 261 | Goodwin | 54 | 24 | 3 | 364 | |
| Barnidge | 67 | 43 | 1 | 495 | Clay | 63 | 39 | 1 | 375 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: Sammy Watkins (BUF WR) – Questionable but expected to play (Foot)
CLE Matchup Rating: 3.0
BUF Matchup Rating: 7.0
Cleveland Browns
Quarterback: Apparently we have to get all of the bad teams out of the way early this week. We move to the Browns now, and we all know that they are an awful football team. They remain winless on the year. Robert Griffin returned last week to post a wonderful line of 12-for-28 with 104 yards and an interception, though he did add a rushing touchdown. Still, there’s no reason to target him in a tough road matchup against the Bills. The Browns have the lowest team total outside of the Rams this week, and they are ten point road underdogs in a game with an overall total of 41 points.
Running Backs: The only reason to think about rostering a Cleveland running back is because of what Le’Veon Bell just did to this Buffalo defense, gashing them for almost 300 total yards. The problem is that the Browns don’t have Le’Veon Bell. They have a running back tandem of Isaiah Crowell and Duke Johnson, though Crowell has been the more effective runner of late. He ran for 113 yards on just ten carries last week against the Bengals, while again playing on just over 50% of the snaps. The time share with Johnson is a drag and the game flow is a massive concern, but I understand the logic behind considering Crowell at $4,100 on DK and $5,500 on FD. I probably won’t do it myself, but that doesn’t mean I am making the right move. Personally, I can’t bring myself to trust a Cleveland player.
Pass Catchers: Griffin’s return puts a real damper on the prospects for this unit. Nobody had more than 27 receiving yards last week, and it doesn’t make sense to go here. I suppose you could consider Terrelle Pryor in a GPP, but that’s a massive risk/reward scenario.
The Takeaway: Ho-hum, we have another team that we can basically ignore. If you target anyone from the Browns, Isaiah Crowell makes the most sense given Buffalo’s struggles against the run. Outside of him, there’s mountains of risk with pretty much everyone from this scuffling team.
Buffalo Bills
Quarterback: It’s hard to explain, but the Bills simply don’t let Tyrod Taylor loose. Even though they were in full catch-up mode last week against the Steelers, Taylor attempted just 25 passes on the day. Upon further notice, though, Taylor got sacked five times and the Bills didn’t run a ton of offensive plays in the game. That being said, if there was a matchup for Taylor to hit his upside (whatever that may be), this would be the one. Cleveland is abysmal at every level on defense, and they rank 31st in DVOA against the pass and dead last against in DVOA against the run. Taylor is not on my radar at a ridiculous $7,600 on FanDuel, but he can definitely be considered at $5,700 on DraftKings. The major worry in this game is the game script, as the Bills are hefty ten point favorites at home and may take a ground-and-pound approach in this game against the winless Browns.
Running Backs: Lots of fantasy players were scared off LeSean McCoy last week because Mike Gillislee had been anointed as the “goal line” back after doing well in that role the week before. However, actions speak louder than words, and it was McCoy who got a three yard goal line touchdown against the Steelers. He also has a David Johnson-like 13 catches for 142 yards over the last two games combined. People naturally look for reasons to avoid McCoy, because his price point is often at a very awkward level just below Bell and Johnson. In that event, it often makes sense to fantasy players to “find the extra cash” for one of the top two guys. That narrative might change this week, with McCoy owning a fantastic game script against the woeful Browns. His price tag is a little high for my liking, so I likely won’t have massive exposure this week. If you are inclined, he is certainly playable in any format.
Pass Catchers: This is the week to play Sammy Watkins. The snowy weather was somewhat of a hindrance last week, but Watkins played on a very encouraging 94% of Buffalo’s offensive snaps. He also caught four passes for 54 yards and a score.Watkins seems like a lock to break a big play against this leaky Browns defense, and he is a great play on FanDuel at $6,100. He carries slightly less appeal on full PPR sites, as he makes his mark with big plays as opposed to volume in an offense that doesn’t throw a ton. With Watkins as close to 100% as he has been since very early in the season, you can safely ignore the other fringe options in the Buffalo passing game.
The Takeaway: There aren’t many weeks where I am heavy on exposure to players on the Bills, but that might change this week. Tyrod Taylor is an interesting GPP quarterback option on DraftKings, Sammy Watkins is a great play on FanDuel, and LeSean McCoy is a top four running back option on every site. As with any team going against the Browns, we don’t have to shy away from opposing players. I likely won’t play all three guys on the same lineup, but mixing and matching them in multiple lineups makes a lot of sense.
Philadelphia Eagles at Baltimore Ravens
| Philadelphia Eagles | Baltimore Ravens | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 41 | 17.5 | -6 | 41 | 23.5 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 22.3 | 19 | 21 | 15 | Offense | 21.5 | 21 | 6 | 28 | |
| Opp. Defense | 18.2 | 4 | 12 | 1 | Opp. Defense | 20.9 | 12 | 14 | 15 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Baltimore Ravens | 11 | 3 | 26 | 7 | Philadelphia Eagles | 12 | 11 | 29 | 2 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Matthews | 99 | 65 | 3 | 765 | Wallace | 101 | 62 | 4 | 903 | |
| Agholor | 60 | 33 | 1 | 309 | Smith | 83 | 58 | 3 | 646 | |
| Green-Beckham | 64 | 33 | 2 | 359 | Aiken | 43 | 25 | 0 | 287 | |
| Ertz | 80 | 57 | 2 | 564 | Pitta | 92 | 65 | 2 | 547 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: Darren Sproles (PHI RB) – Out (Concussion) / Dorial Green-Beckham (PHI WR) – Questionable but expected to play (Abdomen) / Jordan Matthews (PHI WR) – Questionable but expected to play (Ankle)
PHI Matchup Rating: 4.5
BAL Matchup Rating: 6.0
Philadelphia Eagles
Quarterback: There have been rumblings that the Eagles should bench Carson Wentz, but I’m not sure what purpose that serves at this point. The team is 5-8, and they have nothing to lose by letting Wentz continue to get experience as the season winds down. He performed reasonably well last week with 314 passing yards and a touchdown against the Redskins, but he was also asked to sling the ball 46 times in that game. Perhaps the Eagles will continue this game plan moving forward, as they are dealing with a lot of injuries in the backfield. In any event, you can’t take a chance on Wentz in a tough road game against Baltimore’s pass defense, which ranks 7th in the league in DVOA.
Running Backs: This isn’t a great matchup for the Eagles, but we may have some opportunity here. Wendell Smallwood is on injured reserve, and Darren Sproles is in the concussion protocol and has yet to practice this week. That leaves Ryan Mathews, Kenjon Barner, and perhaps Byron Marshall as the only healthy backs. We should finally be able to count on a heavy load of snaps for Mathews. Unfortunately, this is the worst possible matchup. Baltimore has the best rush defense in the NFL, and the Eagles will likely be playing from behind in this game. If the Eagles were playing almost anyone else, I would be interested in Mathews at his super cheap price tag. As it stands, I am very cautious about his outlook for this game.
Pass Catchers: Zach Ertz has 19 catches on a whopping 28 targets over the last two games, and the Eagles are clearly making him a focal point of their offensive game plans. His price tag is still relatively affordable despite his recent production, as he comes at a nice discount from Tyler Eifert. I don’t love the matchup, but you can certainly ride the hot hand here. I’m not really interested in Jordan Matthews this week. He would theoretically get a boost if Jimmy Smith can’t play for the Ravens because of his ankle injury, but Matthews plays a lot out of the slot and would therefore avoid Smith for the most part anyway. It’s Ertz or nothing for me here.
The Takeaway: In what seems to be a recurring theme, we have another team with a very low team total here; the Eagles are pegged for just over 17 points in this game. Ryan Mathews has a terrible matchup, but he is cheap, and the workload should be there thanks to injuries to Smallwood and Sproles (assuming Sproles doesn’t play). Zach Ertz has been shining of late and is in play at tight end if you are looking for a mid-to-high end play with upside.
Baltimore Ravens
Quarterback: Hey, maybe that Flacco guy really IS elite! He has been dynamic over Baltimore’s last two games, but last week’s performance was largely due to game flow. The Ravens fell into a 23-3 hole early in the second half, and they were forced to throw with reckless abandon in the second half. That is not likely to happen this week, with the Ravens installed as six point home favorites. I am not going to chase the two big games, especially since the Eagles rank 3rd in DVOA against the pass. Even though Philadelphia’s defense hasn’t been as good lately, I’m not about to let a two week sample size override what we have seen from Flacco for the last several seasons.
Running Backs: We officially have a changing of the guard in Baltimore. Kenneth Dixon out-snapped Terrance West 42 to 14 against the Patriots, and Dixon looked good, especially in the passing game. He caught eight passes for 42 yards and a touchdown, and his price has not adjusted for that performance because the game was on Monday. I expect the snap ratio to be a little closer to an even time share this week, especially if Ravens build a lead, but Dixon is still the preferred play. It also helps that Dixon is cheaper than West on both major sites. If you need a punt running back play, give Dixon a look in Week 15.
Pass Catchers: Last week was a very representative sample of what we tend to see with the Baltimore pass catchers. Even though Joe Flacco attempted 52 passes and threw for over 320 yards, no receiver had more than 57 yards. The Ravens do a good job of spreading the ball around and using all their receivers. Think of them as similar to the Saints in that regard, only with less talent on the offensive side. There are enough other wide receiver and tight end options this week that you really don’t need to try and get any of these guys in your lineups. If I had to pick one, I would opt for Steve Smith, but that’s not a ringing endorsement.
The Takeaway: As usual, it’s hard to get excited about the Ravens for fantasy purposes. They utilize all their personnel, and nobody is reliable on a weekly basis. The player I am most interested in is Kenneth Dixon, who is taking a larger share of the running back snaps and remains very cheap on every DFS site. Give him a look if you need a punt play at the RB position this week.
Tennessee Titans at Kansas City Chiefs
| Tennessee Titans | Kansas City Chiefs | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5 | 42.5 | 18.5 | -5.5 | 42.5 | 24 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 24.7 | 11 | 25 | 3 | Offense | 23.2 | 14 | 19 | 25 | |
| Opp. Defense | 19.6 | 8 | 18 | 27 | Opp. Defense | 23.5 | 20 | 32 | 3 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 21 | 14 | 31 | 3 | Tennessee Titans | 30 | 6 | 32 | 16 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Matthews | 76 | 49 | 7 | 695 | Maclin | 59 | 31 | 2 | 392 | |
| Sharpe | 69 | 36 | 2 | 464 | Conley | 58 | 36 | 0 | 450 | |
| Wright | 37 | 25 | 3 | 376 | Hill | 68 | 56 | 6 | 547 | |
| Walker | 79 | 51 | 6 | 687 | Kelce | 98 | 70 | 3 | 916 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: None
TEN Matchup Rating: 5.5
KC Matchup Rating: 7.0
Tennessee Titans
Quarterback: The Chiefs have developed a very imposing pass defense. They made big plays to beat the Falcons two weeks ago, and they completely dominated Derek Carr last Thursday (17 for 41, 117 yards, no touchdowns). They rank 8th in DVOA against the pass, and it seems like they have played even better than that over the last month. Fitting with the theme of the week, the Titans have an implied team total of just 18 points in this game. This isn’t the week to get cute in the mid range with Marcus Mariota, as the Chiefs are very tough in Arrowhead Stadium. Look for better options at your quarterback spot.
Running Backs: DeMarco Murray doesn’t carry the explosive upside of guys like Le’Veon Bell or David Johnson, but he is still a perfectly fine top-tier option at running back. He also comes at a significant discount from the big two, and even from LeSean McCoy, at this point. Kansas City is more vulnerable on the ground than through the air, and this matchup sets up similarly to last week’s game against Denver. Murray finished that game with 21 carries for 92 yards and a touchdown. He is generally involved in the passing game, but Marcus Mariota completed just six passes in that contest. Murray is far from a must play, but he can be used if your roster build leaves you in his salary range at running back.
Pass Catchers: Tennessee has one of the most inconsistent receiving corps in all of football, and Rishard Matthews has predictably cooled off after his hot month. The only reliable target is Delanie Walker, and he doesn’t do much for me in this difficult matchup. There’s no reason to look here on a full Week 15 slate.
The Takeaway: I will likely be avoiding the Titans entirely this week. Kansas City has a stout defense and has been playing well of late. They are also very good at home, and they dominated the Raiders last week. The Chiefs also enter this game on a long week after playing a Thursday game. This is a bad spot for the Titans.
Kansas City Chiefs
Quarterback: The game manager Alex Smith actually put up a respectable 264 yards last week against Oakland, though a lot of that was attributable to a few big plays and some blown coverage by the Raiders. He still finished the day with just 17 completions and one touchdown, which is more indicative of his game manager role. In fact, he hasn’t thrown for multiple touchdowns in a game in any of his last seven starts. Even in a good matchup against Tennessee’s relatively weak pass defense, you can’t trust Smith for DFS purposes.
Running Backs: Everyone has that player that they always seem to be slightly irrationally high on. For Justin Van Zuiden, that player is, without question, Spencer Ware. It seems like I make excuses for him every single week. I can certainly do it again. Watch me. He had 20 carries last week compared to just two for Charcandrick West. Of course, Andy Reid gave West the goal line touchdown in the first half. The game flow for the Chiefs is likely to be favorable in this game. On and on we go. The facts remain that he has logged 2.8 and 2.1 yards per carry over the last two games, and those games came against the Raiders and Falcons. Both teams are in the bottom third of the league in DVOA against the run. I think I am finally off the Ware bandwagon this week, so watch him go out and smash. If you play him, you’re welcome.
Pass Catchers: Jeremy Maclin returned against the Raiders and played on almost 75% of the offensive snaps, and that dilutes the value of the other Kansas City wide receivers. The only other guy worth a look is Tyreek Hill, who continued to dominate with a 6/66/1 line against the Raiders to go along with a punt return touchdown. Unfortunately, he played on just 45.5% of the offensive snaps, his lowest total in six weeks. Some of that might have been attributable to the Chiefs playing with a lead for much of this game, but there are reasons to be concerned about Hill’s role as the season winds down. At his currently elevated price points, it might be wise to avoid Hill this week. He’s a dynamic playmaker, but there is a “floor game” coming at some point, and it could very well happen here. Travis Kelce remains the safest option in this receiving corps, and he is thriving with four straight games of 7+ catches and 100+ receiving yards.
The Takeaway: Even though the Chiefs are solid favorites in this game, they don’t have the most appealing fantasy targets. Alex Smith has no upside. Spencer Ware has struggled even in great matchups over the last few weeks. The return of Jeremy Maclin puts a damper on the prospects for Tyreek Hill. I am not really interested in anyone from this team outside of the white-hot Travis Kelce.
