NFL Grind Down: Week 4 - Page Two
| Cincinnati Bengals | Cleveland Browns | |||||||||
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| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -3 | 40 | 21.5 | 3 | 40 | 18.5 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 11.0 | 32 | 26 | 21 | Offense | 18.7 | 18 | 13 | 24 | |
| Opp. Defense | 25.3 | 25 | 18 | 13 | Opp. Defense | 20.0 | 9 | 4 | 23 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Cleveland Browns | 24 | 12 | 11 | 26 | Cincinnati Bengals | 15 | 9 | 8 | 13 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Green | 31 | 20 | 1 | 252 | Britt | 15 | 5 | 1 | 69 | |
| LaFell | 14 | 8 | 0 | 59 | Higgins | 17 | 9 | 0 | 105 | |
| Boyd | 5 | 2 | 0 | 22 | Louis | 11 | 5 | 0 | 69 | |
| Eifert | 5 | 4 | 0 | 46 | DeValve | 14 | 8 | 0 | 132 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: John Ross (CIN WR) – Out (Knee) / Tyler Eifert (CIN TE) – Out (Back)
CIN Matchup Rating: 5.5
CLE Matchup Rating: 3.5
Cincinnati Bengals
Quarterback: After not scoring a touchdown in two games, the Bengals offense finally woke up under a new offensive coordinator last week. That does not suddenly make Andy Dalton a great DFS option, but Dalton was a guy that a lot of smart people were considering as a cheap option in season long leagues at the back end of drafts. There is talent on this offense, though it takes a bit of a hit sans Tyler Eifert. It’s hard to make a glowing case for Dalton, but the matchup is a good one, as Cleveland ranks just 26th in DVOA against the pass and allowed a massive game to Jacoby Brissett last week. If you need to punt the quarterback position, you could certainly do worse.
Running Backs: One of the reasons why the Bengals had some offensive success last week is because they made an effort to get the football into the hands of their best players. It worked. Imagine that! Joe Mixon is slowly taking over this backfield, with quicksand-running Jeremy Hill and passing down specialist Giovani Bernard his only threats. It only makes sense to give Mixon more snaps, and he played 34 last week after seeing the field for just 38 snaps in the first two games combined. Mixon rewarded his owners with a 101 total yard day, and touchdowns are coming. This is a game where the Bengals could be playing with a lead, in which case Mixon is an even better option. He is a great value play, especially at his price tag on FanDuel, this week.
Pass Catchers: The squeaky wheel narrative worked just fine last week, as A.J. Green had a massive game against the Packers. He ended the day with ten catches for 111 yards and a touchdown (on 13 targets), and the Bengals should force feed him the ball every week. The Browns lack talent in the secondary and have nothing in the way of a shut down cornerback, so Green is very clearly a top three receiving option this week. His matchup is a lot better other top receivers like Antonio Brown will see in Week 4. Cleveland has been torched by tight ends twice so far this season, so you could do worse than using Tyler Kroft as a cheap tight end play. He saw four targets in Eifert’s place a week ago. It’s difficult to endorse Brandon LaFell, a low upside option who has just eight catches in three games this year.
The Takeaway: There aren’t going to be many opportunities for the Bengals to play with a lead this year, but this could be an opportunity for said event to occur. Joe Mixon has all the momentum in the backfield and is one of my favorite values this week, while the Dalton-to-Green connection could certainly do some things in the passing game. Tyler Kroft is in the value tight end conversation in a favorable matchup, too.
Cleveland Browns
Quarterback: The final fantasy line didn’t look that bad for DeShone Kizer a week ago, but he really wasn’t that good against a hapless Colts team. Yes, the three total touchdowns were nice, but he also threw three interceptions and completed less than 50% of his throws. Things won’t be that easy against the Bengals, and the Colts got a little too “prevent-y” with their defense in the second half, which nearly cost them the game. Things won’t be as easy against the Bengals. However, Kizer does deliver some upside for a cheap price, as his three touchdowns and his rushing production from last week would attest. It’s a risk/reward GPP play, as Kizer is by no means safe enough for cash games.
Running Backs: If last week wasn’t the week for Isaiah Crowell to break out, I’m not banking on it again anytime soon. The snaps were split almost evenly last week, as Crowell played on 41 snaps to 40 for Duke Johnson, and it was the Duke that snagged a first half touchdown run. It is worth noting that the Browns ran 69 total plays, so they were on the field together at times with Johnson split out wide. The Browns used Johnson exclusively as a wide receiver in Week 1, but apparently they have changed their tune since then, as he has gradually been more involved on the ground over the last two weeks. In a neutral (at best) matchup, this spot is best left avoided.
Pass Catchers: Rashard Higgins was last week’s value darling, and he flopped like Marcus Smart in a poor game where he logged just two grabs for ten yards. Kenny Britt saw ten targets and appears to be the top choice for Kizer without Corey Coleman, though he was horrific in the efficiency department with just three catches on those targets. Duke Johnson, of course, remained very much involved in the passing game. Ricardo Louis led the group by playing on 57 of 69 snaps, while Higgins and Britt each played on 52. All three should continue to see plenty of run, but last week’s snaps were largely due to game flow. None of the receivers are safe, but there is still some potential value here.
The Takeaway: There isn’t a safe play in the bunch in a fairly difficult matchup. DeShone KIzer is not the most accurate passer, so the wide receiver value is going to be hit or miss. With Isaiah Crowell scuffling a bit and losing some RB snaps to Duke Johnson, that spot is a nightmare to peg. Kizer as a standalone play might be the way to go, especially since he brings some upside with his legs, but this isn’t the most ideal matchup on paper.
| Los Angeles Rams | Dallas Cowboys | |||||||||
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| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 46.5 | 19.75 | -7 | 46.5 | 26.75 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 35.7 | 1 | 7 | 20 | Offense | 21.3 | 16 | 19 | 22 | |
| Opp. Defense | 20.7 | 11 | 20 | 12 | Opp. Defense | 25.0 | 24 | 14 | 27 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Dallas Cowboys | 19 | 22 | 23 | 12 | Los Angeles Rams | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Watkins | 14 | 13 | 2 | 194 | Bryant | 27 | 11 | 2 | 114 | |
| Woods | 16 | 10 | 0 | 169 | Williams | 16 | 13 | 0 | 132 | |
| Kupp | 14 | 9 | 1 | 126 | Beasley | 14 | 8 | 0 | 69 | |
| Higbee | 7 | 3 | 0 | 21 | Witten | 26 | 18 | 2 | 159 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: None
LAR Matchup Rating: 5.0
DAL Matchup Rating: 7.0
Los Angeles Rams
Quarterback: Is there a single Rams fan on the planet that doesn’t support the Jeff Fisher firing at this point? Just look at what Sean McVay is doing with this offense. He is being super creative, and the team looks poised to thrive. Jared Goff looked very good against the 49ers and remains value-priced at $7,200 on FD, $5,600 on DK, and $11,200 on FantasyDraft. Goff has completed over 70% of his passes and has five touchdowns in three games. He now draws a matchup against a Dallas team that is an average pass defense at best. If you are a believer in McVay and this offense, I have no qualms about using Goff at his current price point.
Running Backs: There can’t be a bigger McVay fan out there than Todd Gurley, who has finally been freed in a new system. While his results weren’t exactly great in the first two weeks, the opportunity was there, and he finally broke out against the 49ers last Thursday with 149 total yards on a whopping 33 touches. He has this backfield virtually all to himself, and all the arrows are pointing up. Here’s where I will throw just a little bit of caution out there. Gurley now comes at a much more expensive price point, perhaps the highest of his entire career, and the Rams could very well be playing from behind in this game. We know that Dallas likes to try to control clock, as well, and this might be enough red flags to get me to avoid an expensive and likely chalkyTodd Gurley.
Pass Catchers: Dallas seems to have no answers for talented wide receivers, and they have really struggled against Larry Fitzgerald and Emmanuel Sanders over the last two weeks. Enter Sammy Watkins, who is coming off a massive game where he finished with a 6/102/2 line. There’s massive upside here, and Watkins is a strong tournament option against the Cowboys, as long as he gets cleared from his concussion in time to play. I’m not going to chase one week worth of production from Robert Woods, unless Watkins is sidelined. This also profiles as a week where Cooper Kupp might be able to thrive from the slot, but his snap count left a little to be desired last week. Health pending, I’ll stick with Watkins.
The Takeaway: This Rams team is going to be fun to watch for years to come, but this isn’t necessarily a great matchup on the road. Dallas by no means has an elite defensive unit, and I don’t mind using Goff as a cheap QB option or Watkins as a GPP WR option. I will likely fade Todd Gurley at his elevated price point, but the opportunity, role, and upside are certainly there.
SATURDAY UPDATE – Dallas’ defense is banged up a bit, and they have a lot of guys listed as questionable for this game. You can marginally upgrade the Rams offense if some guys are out.
Dallas Cowboys
Quarterback: Dak Prescott hit his fantasy ceiling last week by virtue of scoring three touchdowns, but the game also underscored how everything has to go right for him to have any shot at hitting that upside. Dallas attempted just 18 passes in the game against the Cardinals, and Prescott didn’t even hit 200 yards passing. He has yet to top 270 yards through the air in any game. Dallas is more than happy to grind out games on the ground, and in those cases they simply allow Prescott to manage the game, which he does very well. Prescott is a smart quarterback and will be a winner in this league for a long time, but he doesn’t have a ton of fantasy upside. I’ll gladly leave him on the board again this week.
Running Backs: There is some concern buzzing about regarding Ezekiel Elliott, and it appears that his “top speed” isn’t as high as it was a year ago. Perhaps he’s not in the same shape, or perhaps this is just the start of a rapid early career decline that we see for a lot of running backs. Perhaps the sample size is just too small. Perhaps the potential suspension is weighing on his mind. While it’s hard to peg the reason, his results have clearly suffered. If there is a get right spot for him, this is certainly it. The Rams have allowed 417 rushing yards, 4.3 yards per carry, and a league worst six rushing touchdowns so far this season. I’ll happily give Elliott a look in all formats, though it would be nice if his early season struggles gave us more of a discounted price tag.
Pass Catchers: Although I am not thrilled about Dallas’ limited passing volume, this could be a nice spot to pounce on Dez Bryant at a relatively cheap price point. He has had three extremely difficult matchups over the first three weeks, being matched up with the likes of Janoris Jenkins (Week 1), Patrick Peterson (Week 3), and the Denver cornerbacks (Week 2). That’s quite the schedule. He should welcome the ability to run routes against a weaker secondary, and the ability for a big game is always there. He is the first read on a lot of Dallas’ pass routes, and the rest of the receiving corps simply offers limited upside. Brice Butler is their second most talented receiver, but he only ran three pass routes on Monday night. He did catch two passes for 90 yards and a touchdown, but the role just isn’t there right now. Don’t bother with Cole Beasley, Terrance Williams, or Jason Witten.
The Takeaway: Much of the offense should flow through Ezekiel Elliott and Dez Bryant, and the matchup is certainly there for the taking. Bryant is available at a reasonable price and finally has an exploitable opponent, while Elliott should get plenty of work once again. I am slightly concerned about his early season struggles, so he is by no means a must play, but the Rams are vulnerable on the ground. I will pass on the other skill players. It will be interesting to see how this game plays out.
| Tennessee Titans | Houston Texans | |||||||||
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| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -2 | 44 | 23 | 2 | 44 | 21 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 28.7 | 6 | 18 | 2 | Offense | 17.7 | 20 | 29 | 7 | |
| Opp. Defense | 24.7 | 23 | 17 | 15 | Opp. Defense | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Houston Texans | 22 | 8 | 18 | 17 | Tennessee Titans | 28 | 16 | 28 | 19 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Matthews | 24 | 14 | 1 | 201 | Hopkins | 37 | 21 | 1 | 204 | |
| Decker | 18 | 10 | 0 | 91 | Fuller | |||||
| Davis | 13 | 7 | 0 | 73 | Ellington | 9 | 4 | 1 | 59 | |
| Walker | 19 | 15 | 0 | 168 | Griffin | 7 | 5 | 1 | 61 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: Corey Davis (TEN WR) – Out (Hamstring)
TEN Matchup Rating: 6.0
HOU Matchup Rating: 4.5
Tennessee Titans
Quarterback: Tennessee nearly let a huge lead slip away against Seattle a week ago, but they held on for a very solid home victory. Vegas is respecting them a good bit, too, as they check in as road favorites against Houston this week. Marcus Mariota has quietly been a bit of a disappointment from a fantasy perspective so far this year, but the Titans have garnered big leads in each of their last two contests. I am not concerned in the long-term, but this doesn’t seem like an ideal breakout spot. He could very well be fine, but I would set expectations along the lines of a 250 yard, two touchdown day. Houston is not the same pass defense without A.J. Bouye, but they aren’t a pushover, either. I’m neutral on Mariota and would likely only consider him on 1 PM only slates.
Running Backs: Well, that was an unpleasant week for trying to peg the Tennessee backfield. Virtually all week leading up to the Week 3 game, it looked as if DeMarco Murray might not play at all. Even if he did play, it seemed like he would be at least somewhat limited. By the time kickoff came around, Murray was ready to rock and roll with his normal workload. Murray and Derrick Henry split work almost evenly, but Murray played more snaps and broke off a 75 yard touchdown to make value with one play. Murray is practicing in full this week and seems to be ready to keep his usual 70-75% of the snaps. I won’t fault anyone for taking a chance on Murray, but I prefer other options in the mid-to-upper tier of RBs this week.
Pass Catchers: Corey Davis is going to be sidelined again this week, which will mean a few extra snaps for Eric Decker and Rishard Matthews. Both are reasonably safe options, but there isn’t a ton of upside in this group. I will be looking elsewhere for GPP potential, but Decker and Matthews are perfectly fine cash game options. Delanie Walker is a little banged up right now but still appears likely to play in this game. He is not a DFS option this week, though his absence wouldn’t hurt the other wide receivers. Talented pass catching rookie Jonnu Smith would also get a few more looks.
The Takeaway: There isn’t a ton to love with the Titans in this road spot, but they are unlikely to completely tank your rosters if you target a player or two. DeMarco Murray has the most upside, while Eric Decker and Rishard Matthews are better cash game options. You can also get away with fading this team entirely, as their 23 point implied team total is on the low side this week.
Houston Texans
Quarterback: Deshaun Watson was mighty impressive in last week’s game against the Patriots, and I will admit that I sold him a bit short. It wasn’t fair to expect greatness in his first start against the Bengals, which came on a short week. With adequate time to prepare for the Patriots, Watson showed confidence and poise beyond his years on his way to 300 passing yards, 40 rushing yards, and a pair of touchdowns. A pair of mistakes ended up costing the Texans, but the performance was nonetheless impressive. His price remains dirt cheap, and you can probably make a case for him ahead of DeShone Kizer, though I don’t have a strong preference for either guy. Just know the risk and that they are both better utilized as GPP plays.
Running Backs: Lamar Miller is $4,500 on DraftKings this week. That is mighty cheap. Tennessee by no means has a shut down defense, and the Texans still appear confident using Miller as their lead back. He logged 50 snaps last week compared to just 17 for D’Onta Foreman, though they do tend to utilize Foreman when he is in there. Miller is obviously not a transcendent talent and this isn’t the greatest offensive line in the league, but the price is certainly right. I can see him as a viable value piece, especially in cash games.
Pass Catchers: This passing game runs in, around, and through DeAndre Hopkins. He leads the league with 37 targets through three weeks, just ahead of Antonio Brown and Larry Fitzgerald. That’s some pretty good company. Watson clearly trusts his #1 receiver, and Hopkins is going to have a remarkably safe floor on a weekly basis. Bruce Ellington appeared to be trending in the right direction, but news broke this week that Will Fuller is likely going to make his debut in this game. That’s a blow to Ellington, and it’s hard to trust either guy until we see how Fuller is utilized. Hopkins is the guy to target here, and he is a fine option again this week. With C.J. Fiedorowicz out, Ryan Griffin might have some low end tight end value if you are feeling frisky.
The Takeaway: There are some reasonable cash game options here, with Lamar Miller viable because of his price (especially on DK) and DeAndre Hopkins viable because of his secure target share. Deshaun Watson could be worth a look in tournaments, but he has plenty of risk. At the end of the day, this game has a relatively low total, and you don’t have to squeeze in a lot of players from this contest.
| Detroit Lions | Minnesota Vikings | |||||||||
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| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ** | ** | ** | ** | ** | ** | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 28.3 | 7 | 20 | 17 | Offense | 24.0 | 12 | 4 | 11 | |
| Opp. Defense | 20.7 | 11 | 26 | 3 | Opp. Defense | 21.0 | 13 | 22 | 11 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Minnesota Vikings | 16 | 1 | 29 | 20 | Detroit Lions | 8 | 24 | 17 | 10 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Tate | 27 | 21 | 1 | 190 | Diggs | 25 | 17 | 4 | 293 | |
| Jones | 13 | 6 | 2 | 88 | Thielen | 24 | 19 | 0 | 299 | |
| Golladay | 15 | 7 | 2 | 102 | Treadwell | 8 | 5 | 0 | 42 | |
| Ebron | 15 | 9 | 1 | 60 | Rudolph | 11 | 8 | 1 | 75 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: Kenny Golladay (DET WR) – Questionable (Hamstring) / Sam Bradford (MIN QB) – Out (Knee)
DET Matchup Rating: 5.5
MIN Matchup Rating: 6.5
Detroit Lions
Quarterback: Pour one out for the Detroit Lions. Did Calvin Johnson catch that ball against the Bears a decade ago? Did Golden Tate score a touchdown to win last week’s game? For the record, I don’t think there was enough evidence to overturn that call, especially since it was called a touchdown on the field. In any case, we’ll see what kind of fire the Lions come out with this week. I could see them coming out flat, and I could see them coming out motivated. The first quarter of this game will be extremely important. Stafford’s yardage total is down because of one game where he didn’t have to throw much, but he has a solid seven touchdown passes in three games. This matchup seems tough on paper, but Minnesota ranks a surprisingly low 27th in DVOA against the pass so far this year. Stafford is a decent option here, though he will likely go overlooked by the masses.
Running Backs: Theo Riddick actually played on more snaps than Ameer Abdullah last week, and this sets up as a bit of a mess going forward. Riddick has PPR appeal in games where the Lions project to be trailing, but this is largely a crapshoot on weeks where games are projected to be close. I don’t expect Abdullah to have a ton of success between the tackles in this game, and he’s not a strong asset in the red zone. He can be left on the sidelines this week, making Riddick the only viable option, and even he is nowhere near a strong play.
Pass Catchers: The key to beating this Minnesota pass defense is generally just to avoid Xavier Rhodes, though Mike Evans threw some serious shade on Rhodes on Twitter this week. Marvin Jones is likely to see the most of Rhodes this week, and I will take the path of least resistance and avoid him. Golden Tate has a decent matchup and appears to be the best option here. I keep waiting for consistency to develop with Eric Ebron, but I am likely going to be waiting until he retires for that. I’ll pass outside of Tate.
The Takeaway: There aren’t a lot of great plays here, and Minnesota is a tough place to play for a visiting squad. I don’t have any qualms with Matthew Stafford and/or Golden Tate, especially in tournament formats. Tate should avoid the coverage of Xavier Rhodes for the most part. As for the rest of the team, meh. The backfield remains a mess. There are better options out there.
Minnesota Vikings
Quarterback: The Vikings are still paying lip service to Sam Bradford being the start this week. That surprises me a bit, as Case Keenum was (somehow) dynamite against the Bucs last week, and he also had a 321 yard, three touchdown game against the Lions as a member of the Rams last year. With all the uncertainty here, it’s tough to give this more than a cursory mention at this point. I will update the injury situation on Friday or Saturday if we get clarity.
Running Backs: Dalvin Cook is good. The Minnesota offensive line might prevent him from being Kareem Hunt breakout good, but Cook is still downright good. He out-carried Latavius Murray 27 to 2 last week, and this is clearly Cook’s job. He is averaging 96 rushing yards per game and 4.7 yards per carry, and he logged his first NFL touchdown last week. Detroit’s rush defense is merely middle of the road, so this could be another game for Cook to continue his early season momentum. He is a perfectly fine play in the mid-tier of running backs.
Pass Catchers: Speaking of good, how about Stefon Diggs? He smashed against the Saints in Week 1 with Bradford tossing him the pigskin (7/93/2), and he smashed against the Bucs last week with Keenum tossing him the pigskin (8/173/2). He’s emerging as a top ten receiver in this league, and he has all the potential in the world if he can correct the occasional dropsies. I will probably fade him this week, as he is sure to see a lot of elite corner Darius Slay in coverage, and his ownership is likely going to be through the roof. Hope for a down game this week to reduce his ownership going forward. Assuming Diggs sees a lot of Slay, the upgrades go to Adam Thielen and Kyle Rudolph. Thielen should see a healthy dose of targets, and he almost topped 100 yards last week as well. Rudolph will have more value if Bradford is back under center.
The Takeaway: Despite the uncertainty at quarterback, the Vikings have two elite talents in Dalvin Cook and Stefon Diggs. I like Cook again this week, while Diggs has a tough matchup with Darius Slay. Adam Thielen is a reasonably safe WR play, while Kyle Rudolph is only in play at tight end if Sam Bradford is back.
