RotoGrinders NFL Grind Down: Week 6

by Justin Van Zuiden (stlcardinals84) Last Updated 2016-10-16 15:28:16

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Welcome to the RotoGrinders NFL Grind Down, an all-encompassing preview of the week ahead in the NFL from a daily fantasy sports perspective. We’ll provide all the statistics, insights and analysis you need to set your lineups for this week’s contests.

Every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts. Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide a look at how each team fares against opposing offenses from a fantasy points allowed perspective and include some statistics for key players on each team as well.

Each contest is then analyzed team-by-team, with a focus on finding matchups to exploit and trends to follow. These breakdowns now feature “Matchup Rating,” which factors in projected point totals, pace, and offense versus defense data to compile an all-around rating that helps determine how favorable of a fantasy matchup each team has this week.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code.

INJURIES – I will update all notable injuries/suspensions on Saturday morning after we have final injury reports

Denver Broncos at San Diego Chargers

Denver Broncos						San Diego Chargers
Vegas Odds		Spread	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Spread	Total	Proj.Pts
		-3	45.5	24.25				3	45.5	21.25
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	25.4	9	25	16		Offense	30.4	2	5	19
Opp. Defense	28.4	28	29	8		Opp. Defense	17.4	5	4	22
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
San Diego Chargers	27	31	21	24		Denver Broncos	7	23	1	8
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Thomas	34	26	3	381		Benjamin	39	28	2	394
Sanders	51	32	3	373		Inman	24	13	1	168
Fowler	6	3	0	26		Williams	34	21	2	358
Green	8	7	0	74		Gates	14	10	2	65

Notable injuries and suspensions: None

DEN Matchup Rating: 8.0
SD Matchup Rating: 3.0

Denver Broncos

Quarterback: Paxton Lynch was exposed in last week’s loss to the Falcons, and the Broncos have to be eager to get Trevor Siemian back out there. By the way, who thought we would be saying that in week number six? I certainly didn’t. Siemian has been a pleasant surprise for the Broncos, completing 67% of his passes through four starts. He is by no means a great quarterback, and he has made some sloppy mistakes at times, but he draws a great matchup here against a poor San Diego secondary that is now without its best cover corner in Jason Verrett. Derek Carr sliced through this defense, and Siemian should have a good game. He will probably be over-owned on Thursday lock contests, though, and he is definitely not a “must have” QB option. I will likely fade him in GPPs.

Running Backs: The concern over the workload for C.J. Anderson is officially a big deal. Here are his snap count rates through five weeks, in order from weeks one through five: 82%, 66%, 72%, 67%, 51%. That is not trending in the right direction. As I cautioned last week, Devontae Booker has a role in this backfield. Of course, the Broncos were playing from behind last week, which did not help Anderson’s cause. He should be better in a fine matchup against the Chargers, but I don’t have much interest at this moment. I would only play him on the Monday/Thursday two game slate that extends into this game, where I do prefer Anderson over Melvin Gordon.

Pass Catchers: As usual, this is where we can potentially look for some Denver goodness. Despite Paxton Lynch and his struggles against the Falcons, Emmanuel Sanders and Demaryius Thomas combined to catch twelve passes in the game. The yardage totals were underwhelming, but the performance should improve with Siemian back under center. These two are still seeing more than 50% of the total targets in the Denver passing game, so there’s no reason to shy away from them now. Both Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree had nice games against the Chargers in Week 5, and the loss of Verrett is really going to hamper this secondary. You can fire up either receiver in any format. I prefer Sanders in cash games for his stability and Thomas in GPPs for his big play upside.

The Takeaway: Trevor Siemian should return for this game, which helps the overall outlook for Denver’s offense. This is a good matchup, but C.J. Anderson is trending in the wrong direction. I will likely stick to Thomas and Sanders for my Broncos exposure once again this week, while I could see taking a shot on Siemian if you are going cheap at quarterback.

San Diego Chargers

Quarterback: I have to give the Chargers credit for their innovation. They continue to find ways to lose games. From fumbles to interceptions to a botched snap on a field goal try, the frustrations continue in San Diego. The Broncos defense did not have its best week against the Falcons, but Matt Ryan still barely completed 50% of his passes. Half of Ryan’s passing yards came out of the backfield to Tevin Coleman. It was a bit of an aberration for this elite defense. Outside of a deep GPP flier on a short slate, I have no interest in Phillip Rivers in this spot.

Running Backs: Melvin Gordon was finally held out of the end zone on the ground last week, but his owners were once again bailed out as he scampered for a touchdown on his only pass reception against the Raiders. The good news is that he is still playing 90% of the snaps, Denver does struggle more against the run, and they have some issues with allowing receiving yards to running backs. Both the aforementioned Coleman and Devonta Freeman had good receiving days last week. I am far from a Gordon truther, but he is the most viable option from the San Diego side in this game.

Pass Catchers: The San Diego receiving corps is a week-to-week nightmare to predict. Two weeks ago it was Dontrelle Inman. Last week it was Travis Benjamin for the yards and the tight ends for the touchdowns. With both Antonio Gates and Hunter Henry getting snaps at tight end, this is far from a glorious situation. Throw in a matchup against that tough Denver secondary, and I have no interest in any San Diego pass catchers this week. If you want to take a shot on figuring out who will be the most viable option, go right ahead. I’ll let the field take that risk.

The Takeaway: We should see a more focused performance out of the Denver defense in this game. I don’t have much interest in any San Diego players outside of Melvin Gordon, who does draw a decent matchup and is playing on a hefty percentage of snaps. If you want to run out the Denver defense, that is definitely a viable strategy as well. There are not a ton of attractive team defense options on the main Sunday slate this week, with the Vikings on a bye, these Broncos playing on Thursday night, and the Cardinals playing on Monday night.

San Francisco 49ers at Buffalo Bills

San Francisco Niners						Buffalo Bills
Vegas Odds		Spread	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Spread	Total	Proj.Pts
		9	44	17.5				-9	44	26.5
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense						Offense	23.4	15	31	3
Opp. Defense	17.4	5	23	13		Opp. Defense
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Buffalo Bills	3	20	13	5		San Francisco Niners	14	26	12	21
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Smith	23	9	1	106		Woods	31	20	0	196
Patton	20	12	0	122		Goodwin	21	6	2	143
Kerley	45	26	2	304		Powell	11	7	0	50
McDonald	7	5	2	93		Clay	24	17	0	187

Notable injuries and suspensions: Charles Clay (BUF TE) – Questionable (Knee)

SF Matchup Rating: 4.5
BUF Matchup Rating: 6.5

San Francisco 49ers

Quarterback: The moment is finally here. Chip Kelly is giving the start to Colin Kaepernick this weekend, and it just so happens to correspond with the timing of Kaepernick’s contract getting restructured. He is a bit of an unknown at this point. He was fabulous to start his career, terrible in the middle, and he has been on the bench of late. Does he have upside? Sure. What are the odds of him hitting that upside in a road game against a team that is playing well and has a decent defense? Maybe 10%? If that’s enough to get you excited, give Kap a look in a GPP. He’s mega cheap everywhere, but I have a feeling that his ownership will be inflated because of the infatuation with his recent behavior. Don’t get caught up in that – let the slate data be your guide.

Running Backs: San Francisco continues to use Carlos Hyde in virtually an every down role, as he has played on 83% and 82% of the team’s offensive snaps over the last two weeks. That is a good sign for his usage going forward, but I wonder how effective he will be with Kaepernick under center. The positive is that Kaepernick will help spread the field more than Blaine Gabbert did. The negative is that Kaepernick might steal some of the goal line carries away. His price has started to come up across the DFS industry, and he’s generally off my radar in this matchup. Buffalo is allowing less than 100 yards rushing per game, and there are better options out there.

Pass Catchers: The outlook for the San Francisco receivers certainly can’t get worse with Kaepernick under center. He doesn’t have the most accurate arm, but he should at least be able to take a few more deep shots with Torrey Smith. However, I wouldn’t expect miracles. Remember, most of Kaepernick’s fantasy value is derived from his dual threat ability. Don’t spend much time here.

The Takeaway: There is not much appeal with San Francisco this weekend. It’s a road game against an improving team, and Vegas only projects the 49ers for 18 points in this game. You could maybe take a GPP shot with Colin Kaepernick at bottom-barrel prices, but that’s about as far as my interest goes.

Buffalo Bills

Quarterback: The Bills are starting to use Tyrod Taylor as a game manager. Even though the team scored 30 points last week, Taylor completed just 12-of-23 passes for 124 yards in the game. He ran for just 28 yards, meaning he accounted for only 152 yards in the contest. LeSean McCoy accounted for 150 on the ground alone. The Bills do get a pace upgrade here with the up-tempo 49ers on the other side, but that’s not enough to make me consider Taylor. There’s just not enough upside, especially with Sammy Watkins out for at least another couple of months.

Running Backs: There was some consternation over Mike Gillislee stealing snaps away from LeSean McCoy, but McCoy was back up to an 80% snap rate against the Rams. He looked very good, rushing for over eight yards per carry on his way to 158 total yards in the game. Though he did not find the end zone (Mike Gillislee vultured him for one despite receiving just two total carries), McCoy continues to produce. The touchdowns will come. This is a great matchup against a 49ers rush defense that ranks 31st in the league and is allowing 147 rushing yards per game. The game script should also set up well with the Bills sitting as 7 1/2 point favorites. There is a lot to like about McCoy, even at a now elevated price point.

Pass Catchers: Since the Bills are using Taylor in more of a game manager mode, it’s tough to like too many receivers. Robert Woods is the #1 option right now, but he saw just six targets against the Rams (catching just two of them). Charles Clay had a 5/73 line, but he caught 100% of his targets. The upside is clearly limited here. If I had to choose one option, I would choose Woods at a cheap price point. I don’t love that, though.

The Takeaway: It’s all about LeSean McCoy. His recent performance, matchup, and the likely game script of this one make him one of the top running back plays of the week. Tyrod Taylor is basically being asked not to lose games at this point, so the passing game doesn’t have as much appeal even in a favorable matchup.

Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Redskins

Editor’s Note: Jordan Reed has been ruled OUT for Week 6.

Philadelphia Eagles						Washington Redskins
Vegas Odds		Spread	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Spread	Total	Proj.Pts
		-3	44	23.5				3	44	20.5
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	28.8	3	22	10		Offense	23.0	16	8	25
Opp. Defense	24.4	19	22	30		Opp. Defense	12.8	2	6	3
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Washington Redskins	13	29	17	20		Philadelphia Eagles	2	7	5	1
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Matthews	30	19	2	269		Jackson	32	18	1	278
Agholor	22	13	1	147		Garcon	32	22	1	230
Green-Beckham	14	10	0	108		Crowder	31	21	2	231
Ertz	10	9	0	95		Reed	46	33	2	316

Notable injuries and suspensions: Jordan Reed (WAS TE) – Questionable (Concussion)

PHI Matchup Rating: 7.0
WAS Matchup Rating: 6.0

Philadelphia Eagles

Quarterback: Are you ready for my unbearable moment of the week? In case you need a refresher, I basically dismissed the Eagles in last week’s Grind Down. I hated the spot for them, and I even called the straight up Lions victory in the article. It’s in print. The first five or six comments in the article were outcries about how I dismissed the Eagles. What about Jordan Matthews? How can you not like Zach Ertz? The Detroit defense is terrible! The Eagles are going off! Hey, I have to claim a victory here or there. Of course, I had my share of misses as well. I’m not going to pretend that I didn’t. That’s what makes this fun! Anyway, back on track… The Eagles have another difficult road game here against the Redskins, but they are once again listed as small road favorites. Carson Wentz threw for a pedestrian 238 yards last week with two touchdowns and one interception, and this matchup is about the same as last week’s was. The Redskins are getting healthy in the secondary, and they could get Bashaud Breeland back for this one. I won’t be looking to Wentz here.

Running Backs: The Eagles do not have a single running back that is playing more than 50% of the team’s offensive snaps. Darren Sproles is at 49.8%, Ryan Mathews is at 33.1%, Wendell Smallwood is at 12.6%, and Kenjon Barner is at 9.8%. The Eagles continue to make the ridiculous claim that Mathews is ‘their guy’ or the ‘bell cow’ when that couldn’t be farther from the truth. He did manage to score via a pass reception last week, but Sproles is generally the guy that is more involved in the passing game. I have no interest in trying to figure this situation out, but Sproles continues to be a fine value option in PPR formats. His $4,900 price tag on DraftKings is reasonable given his production this year, but there is some risk of game flow taking him out of the game in an event that the Eagles do get a big lead.

Pass Catchers: Josh Norman was expected to shadow Steve Smith last week, though he missed some time during the game with a minor injury. I am not sure how the Redskins will use him this week, especially since Jordan Matthews is Philadelphia’s best receiver, and he often operates out of the slot (where Norman generally does not go). The rest of the receiving corps remains too inconsistent to use, especially with the running backs soaking up plenty of targets. I do expect Zach Ertz to get better as the season goes along, and he did play on 85% of the offensive snaps last week. You can target him against a Washington team that allowed a total of 11 catches for 87 yards and a touchdown to Baltimore tight ends a week ago.

The Takeaway: Good luck figuring this team out. The running back situation remains a mess, and the wide receivers are too inconsistent to trust. As with last week, I have my doubts about the Eagles being able to win this game. I don’t hate Darren Sproles in a PPR setting, while I like Zach Ertz in all formats. The data on him from last week was encouraging as far as his playing time goes, and the Redskins do occasionally struggle with tight ends.

Washington Redskins

Quarterback: The Redskins continue to rely on the arm of Kirk Cousins, as he threw 40+ passes for the third time this season in last week’s contest against the Ravens. The Redskins have won their last three games, and they look a lot better than they did over the first two weeks. It surprises me that they are home underdogs here. The Eagles have shown an impressive pass defense this year, as they are allowing just 194 yards per game through the air, good for the sixth best figure in the league. However, outside of their game against the Steelers, they haven’t faced stiff competition. If the Redskins do fall behind here, we know they will let Cousins sling it. I’m on board with some GPP rosters, but I won’t play Cousins in cash games.

Running Backs: Given their hefty usage of Cousins, the Redskins are a pass-first team. Matt Jones got just 14 carries for 31 yards last week against the Ravens, and the coaching staff has talked about using Rob Kelly more often this week. Chris Thompson still plays on passing downs. This situation is a clear pass on all fronts with three backs likely involved and none of them getting a heavy volume.

Pass Catchers: Cousins continues to develop a nice rapport with Jordan Reed, who caught eight of 11 targets against the Ravens, though he only parlayed those into 53 total yards. DeSean Jackson was held back by the heavy winds for last week’s game, and he has now put up back-to-back duds. Given his boom-or-bust nature, you never know when the next 140 yard game is coming. Jackson will be super low owned this week and is a great GPP pairing with his quarterback at likely sub-5% ownership. If you are looking for a cash game pick, Reed is probably the safer option. Jamison Crowder and Pierre Garcon are too inconsistent for my liking.

The Takeaway: You can safely ignore the running game and the fringe receiving options. I love the Cousins/Jackson pairing in GPPs, especially given a likely low ownership this week. Jordan Reed is a safe option if you can afford to pay up at the tight end spot. This isn’t the best game to target for fantasy purposes, but it should be a close, fun football game.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON UPDATE – Jordan Reed is currently on concussion protocol. If he is ruled out, you can upgrade the other Washington wide receivers. If that happens, Garcon and Crowder would both be in play.

SATURDAY UPDATE – Reed seems to be a true game-time decision. If he sits out, you can consider Niles Paul as a dirt cheap TE play. I really like DeSean Jackson this week.

Cleveland Browns at Tennessee Titans

Cleveland Browns						Tennessee Titans
Vegas Odds		Spread	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Spread	Total	Proj.Pts
		7.5	44.5	18.5				-7.5	44.5	26
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	17.4	29	26	5		Offense	18.4	24	30	2
Opp. Defense	20.2	10	10	14		Opp. Defense	29.6	30	25	20
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Tennessee Titans	5	3	7	13		Cleveland Browns	28	22	14	32
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Pryor	46	24	1	338		Matthews	24	16	1	212
Hawkins	20	12	1	126		Sharpe	36	18	0	189
Louis	14	8	0	81		Wright	4	3	0	23
Barnidge	28	21	0	236		Walker	27	16	2	225

Notable injuries and suspensions: Corey Coleman (CLE WR) – Out (Hand) / Gary Barnidge (CLE TE) – Questionable (Arm)

CLE Matchup Rating: 4.5
TEN Matchup Rating: 4.5

Cleveland Browns

Quarterback: The Browns ultimately fell well short against the Patriots a week ago, but they did keep it interesting in the first half. Cody Kessler is dealing with a rib injury and is “expected to play” this week, but that doesn’t mean he is a fantasy option. Tennessee has been solid against the pass this season, and there’s always the risk of Terrelle Pryor stealing some QB snaps. There have also been some rumblings about Josh McCown possibly returning for this game. Basically, this is a giant mess that you don’t need to concern yourself with.

Running Backs: Cleveland’s backfield remains a pretty even time share between Duke Johnson and Isaiah Crowell, but I was surprised to see that Crowell played on 59% of the snaps last week in a game that the Browns lost by 20 points. Johnson is generally more involved in the passing game. Perhaps that is a sign that the team is trending toward Crowell more than Johnson. Unfortunately, Crowell didn’t do much to inspire confidence, as he ran for just 22 yards on 13 carries against New England. This game screams “boring” to me, and I can’t really endorse Crowell even at a cheap price tag. He’s there if you need it, but I don’t think you really do.

Pass Catchers: Gary Barnidge finally had a decent game against the Patriots, but I don’t have much interest in him unless McCown returns. He hasn’t had the best rapport with Cody Kessler, and much of the damage last week came with the now-released Charlie Whitehurst throwing him the ball. Pryor is an intriguing target with his do-it-all chances, but he will likely never see the production that he had a couple weeks back. If forced to play one player from the Browns, I would likely side with Crowell, who comes just a little bit cheaper than Pryor.

The Takeaway: There are no ringing endorsements here. Terrelle Pryor is a little over-priced. Isaiah Crowell is still splitting snaps and struggled last week. We don’t know who the quarterback will be. Fun, right? Crowell is my pick if you make me choose one player.

Tennessee Titans

Quarterback: Watching the Titans is somewhat akin to watching a high school football game for which you have no rooting interest. The parents of the players and the die hard fans enjoy it, but it’s pretty boring to everyone else. They bore me to death, but all they care about is winning football games, and they beat the Dolphins last week in a game where the Dolphins ran just 41 total plays (compared to 70 for the Titans). Tennesee ran the ball 41 times. In an approach similar to the Bills with Tyrod Taylor, they are not asking Marcus Mariota to win football games for them. He threw for just 163 yards last week, and he likely won’t be tasked with doing a whole lot here as the Titans are hefty home favorites against the Browns. You can safely avoid him.

Running Backs: While the team does not ask Mariota to win games for them, they do ask DeMarco Murray to win games for them. He continues to comfortably out-snap Derrick Henry, he ranks 6th in the NFL in rush attempts, he ranks 5th in the NFL in receiving targets among running backs, and he is a huge part of this offense. Murray logged 22 total touches against the Dolphins and approached 140 total yards in the game. This game should follow a similar game script, and Murray is right up there with LeSean McCoy as one of the safer volume-based running back choices of the week. That is especially true on the Sunday-only slate which does not include David Johnson.

Pass Catchers: The only Tennessee receiver that is seeing extensive volume right now is Delanie Walker. Tajae Sharpe has fallen off since Walker’s return from injury, the team doesn’t like to use Rishard Matthews much (even though he has been good this year), and Murray also gets his fair share of looks in the passing game. Walker logged five grabs on eight targets for 66 yards and a touchdown against Miami, and he is in play at tight end. His price point is awkward, though, because Jordan Reed and Greg Olsen are better options for only a little more salary, while the value options are much cheaper than Walker. It’s tough to endorse him in cash games, but there’s GPP appeal there.

The Takeaway: DeMarco Murray is an elite running back option in a game that sets up well for him against Cleveland’s 20th ranked rush defense. As with the Bills, it’s tough to trust the passing game right now. Murray makes sense in all formats this week, while Delanie Walker is a fringe option at tight end that is better utilized in a GPP setting because of his likely low ownership.

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