NFL Grind Down: Week 6 - Page Two

by Justin Van Zuiden (stlcardinals84) Last Updated 2016-10-16 12:35:51

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Baltimore Ravens at New York Giants

Baltimore Ravens						New York Giants
Vegas Odds		Spread	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Spread	Total	Proj.Pts
		3	43.5	20.25				-3	43.5	23.25
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	18.8	22	19	17		Offense	17.8	27	11	27
Opp. Defense	21.6	15	17	12		Opp. Defense	17.6	7	3	4
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
New York Giants	9	6	27	12		Baltimore Ravens	8	2	20	7
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Wallace	39	21	3	273		Beckham	51	27	1	359
Smith	40	27	1	310		Shepard	33	22	2	277
Aiken	11	6	0	28		Cruz	26	16	1	245
Pitta	37	28	0	259		Donnell	11	8	1	50

Notable injuries and suspensions: Steve Smith Sr. (BAL WR) – Doubtful (Ankle) / Mike Wallace (BAL WR) – Questionable but expected to play (Chest)

BAL Matchup Rating: 5.0
NYG Matchup Rating: 5.5

Baltimore Ravens

Quarterback: This is a middling matchup for a middling quarterback. Flacco was bothered by the high winds in last week’s game, which made passing difficult for both the Redskins and the Ravens. Still, Flacco has been nothing better than a low-end fantasy quarterback for much of his career. In addition, he might be missing some of his favorite weapons in the receiving corps this weekend. In this road matchup, there’s no reason to consider Flacco. If you are going to go cheap at quarterback, there are plenty of other options that are both safer and have greater upside.

Running Backs: The game plan for Baltimore was totally wrong last week. Terrance West averaged almost nine yards per carry, but Baltimore inexplicably failed to run the football despite leading for the entire first half and never trailing by more than six points. Joe Flacco attempted 46 passes, while West got just 11 carries. That’s just silly. Many folks (myself included) expect Kenneth Dixon to eventually carve out a role, but he had just three carries for a loss of one yard in last week’s game. West should be the go-to guy, and he is a reasonable option at $5,000 on DraftKings and $6,500 on FanDuel. There is an option in the later games that I prefer much better, so I likely won’t be going here.

Pass Catchers: It sounds like Steve Smith is not going to play this week, and that does open up some opportunity with the Baltimore pass catchers. The Ravens do tend to throw the ball entirely too much, so someone has to put up some numbers based on volume alone. Mike Wallace is the big name, but he is also nursing a minor injury. I would prefer to take more of a value route. Kamar Aiken saw his snap count rise to 56% last week after htting a low of 26% the week before, and he stands to benefit the most if Smith doesn’t play. He would be your safe cash game play, while Breshad Perriman is an interesting GPP target. He almost caught a game winning touchdown against the Redskins, but it got reversed on replay review. Dennis Pitta caught seven passes against the Redskins and can be considered as a value tight end play.

The Takeaway: Terrance West needs to be utilized more often if he continues to run the ball well, as it doesn’t look like Kenneth Dixon is operating at 100% just yet. The best plays from Baltimore might be the value wide receivers, as there will be more to go around to them in the absence of Steve Smith. Dennis Pitta is also a decent value play at tight end.

New York Giants

Quarterback: I managed to avoid the Eli Manning tilt when he faced the Saints earlier in the year, but I did not avoid the Eli Manning tilt when he faced the Packers last week. He just looked bad. There’s no other way to put it. He failed to sustain any drives against a Green Bay defense that has been a sieve against the pass all year. It seems like he always does this when we expect him to perform well, and then he has good games in the most random spots. Baltimore sports the fifth-best pass defense in the league, so logically we should avoid Manning. If we throw logic out the window, this is probably one of the games where he will do well. I’m not going to get burned two weeks in a row.

Running Backs: This is about as clean as a house on the TV show “Hoarders.” Rashad Jennings practiced all last week but didn’t play because he still can’t catch the ball. Orleans Darkwa “started” and had 11 yards on seven carries against the Packers. Bobby Rainey was thrust into duty with the Giants playing from behind, and he managed to catch six passes. Paul Perkins was used sparingly. If this sounds exciting to you, take a shot. It shouldn’t sound exciting, though, and you should probably just keep on trucking past this section.

Pass Catchers: The amazing touchdown catch that Odell Beckham came down with on Sunday night is the reason why we will all keep talking about him. For all his mental weaknesses, the guy is just a freak athlete. Nobody else catches that ball. The Giants promised to get him for involved in the game, and he saw a total of 12 targets. Sterling Shepard had seven as the next closest option, though he caught just two passes for 14 yards. Manning threw for just 199 yards in the game, a testament to how bad he was with the Giants playing from behind for the whole game. I expect things to get a little better this week. The New York receivers have an advantage over Baltimore’s secondary, but you just never know what you are going to get with Eli.

The Takeaway: I won’t get burned by Manning again. I have no interest in the running game. I don’t mind targeting a receiver or two, especially Odell Beckham with his upside. This matchup is good but not great, and there’s no reason to load up on either side of this game.

Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints

Carolina Panthers						New Orleans Saints
Vegas Odds		Spread	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Spread	Total	Proj.Pts
		**	**	**				**	**	**
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	24.6	11	9	6		Offense	28.5	4	2	29
Opp. Defense	32.5	32	30	26		Opp. Defense	27.0	22	15	11
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
New Orleans Saints	22	32	30	9		Carolina Panthers	24	13	8	27
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Benjamin	38	21	4	308		Cooks	32	18	2	255
Ginn	18	9	0	137		Snead	18	15	2	249
Funchess	13	5	1	84		Thomas	31	21	2	229
Olsen	53	33	2	516		Fleener	28	13	1	163

Notable injuries and suspensions: Cam Newton (CAR QB) – Questionable but expected to play (Concussion) / Kelvin Benjamin (CAR WR) – Questionable but expected to play (Knee) / Jonathan Stewart – Quesitonable but expected to play (Hamstring)

CAR Matchup Rating: 8.5
NO Matchup Rating: 8.0

Carolina Panthers

Quarterback: Finally, we get a game that should feature some fireworks. The Panthers desperately need Cam Newton back on the field, as the defending NFC Champions are now 1-4 and are in danger of falling out of the playoff race very early in the year. Derek Anderson was awful against the Bucs, which only accentuates the need for Newton to get back out there. Newton says he expects to be cleared from the concussion protocol, and he couldn’t ask for a better matchup. The Saints have been awful defensively all year long, and they are allowing over 300 passing yards per game. If Newton is cleared and back to 100%, he is definitely in the conversation as the top overall quarterback of the week because of how good this matchup looks.

Running Backs: Jonathan Stewart practiced in full on Wednesday, and he is fully expected to regain the starting running back role this week. He actually draws additional appeal if Cam Newton doesn’t play, because of Newton’s propensity to steal goal line carries. With Newton out of action last week, Cameron Artis-Payne managed to get two rushing touchdowns. That rarely happens for a Carolina running back. Again, this is a favorable matchup against a bad defense, so feel free to use Stewart on sites where his price has been discounted as a result of his injury. Just be aware that his touchdown potential is very limited if Newton is active.

Pass Catchers: Greg Olsen was an absolute monster in the game on Monday, and he was the only person who was worth a hoot in the Carolina passing game. He nearly set the club record for receiving yards in a game. Kelvin Benjamin should be able to dominate against an under-manned New Orleans secondary. Those two players combined to catch 14 of Derek Anderson 18 completions, and they should be the focal point going forward with underwhelming options like Corey Brown, Ted Ginn, and Devin Funchess being the other pass catchers. Olsen and Benjamin are great targets in this one.

FRIDAY UPDATE – Kelvin Benjamin popped up on the injury report on Friday with a knee injury and will be listed as questionable. Be sure to monitor this closely. If he sits out, there is going to be some massive value for Carolina against that bad Saints defense, and Greg Olsen would be the clear-cut #1 tight end.

The Takeaway: The possible return of Cam Newton and Jonathan Stewart should provide a much needed boost to the Carolina offense. Even though Stewart has a favorable matchup of his own, I prefer to get my Carolina exposure via the passing game with Newton, Benjamin, or Olsen. Carolina needs a big game, and they should have one of their better offensive performances of the year.

New Orleans Saints

Quarterback: Carolina’s secondary is in shambles, and they are really going to struggle to contain opposing receivers. Mike Evans had a solid 6/89/1 performance last week after Julio Jones put up 300 yards the week before, and the task does not get any easier with Carolina traveling to New Orleans to face Drew Brees and the Saints. We all know how good Brees has been at home during his career, and the Saints won’t be afraid to air it out. They are also coming off a bye week, which gives them extra time to prepare for this one. Throw in the deficiencies of the New Orleans defense, and Brees will be forced to keep throwing for the Saints to keep pace. Fire him up as a top tier option in any format.

Running Backs: Mark Ingram is barely playing over 50% of the snaps for New Orleans, and if that wasn’t bad enough, he is getting vultured by everyone’s favorite running back John Kuhn near the goal line. He is used sparingly in the passing game, as the Saints can turn to Travaris Cadet or Tim Hightower for those situations. Carolina also has a better defense against the run than the pass. Needless to say, there’s more risk than reward with Ingram.

Pass Catchers: Given Carolina’s struggles with top end wide receivers, this sets up as a good matchup for Brandin Cooks. He has been wildly inconsistent all year long, but this could be a “boom” game. He is one of my favorite high-end GPP targets this week. Willie Snead returned from a toe injury two weeks ago and is likely close to 100% after the bye week, so don’t hesitate to use him, either. Don’t worry about the down game against San Diego, as that was his first game back, and the snap count was actually pretty good. The Saints just spread the ball around so much that inconsistencies are going to happen. Coby Fleener is a mid-tier target at tight end, but I prefer a more consistent option at that position.

FRIDAY UPDATE – The Saints will likely still work in a hefty portion of Michael Thomas this week. I am convinced that Snead is close to 100% now, so there is some risk to Thomas, but he is viable if you want a cheap, probably low-owned, wide receiver play.

The Takeaway: Feel free to attack the inexperienced Carolina secondary in this game. The Saints’ offense always plays well at home, and Drew Brees and company should have a fine day through the air. The Brees/Cooks or Brees/Snead connection is a fine way to go in a tournament format. The vast majority of casual players continue to over-value the Carolina defense. It’s not the elite unit that it once was. We can take advantage of that.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Chicago Bears

Jacksonville Jaguars						Chicago Bears
Vegas Odds		Spread	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Spread	Total	Proj.Pts
		3	47	22				-3	47	25
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	21.0	19	17	30		Offense	17.0	30	7	22
Opp. Defense	25.2	21	12	24		Opp. Defense	27.8	25	7	17
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Chicago Bears	17	16	18	16		Jacksonville Jaguars	26	14	24	6
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Robinson	41	21	3	238		Jeffery	31	22	0	394
Hurns	27	15	1	226		Royal	31	25	2	284
Lee	24	16	0	169		Meredith	20	15	1	182
Thomas	17	11	1	148		Miller	29	25	3	229

Notable injuries and suspensions: Jay Cutler (CHI QB) – Doubtful (Thumb) / Jeremy Langford (CHI RB) – Doubtful (Ankle) / Eddie Royal (CHI WR) – Questionable (Calf) / Alshon Jeffery (CHI WR) – Questionable (Hamstring) / Ka’Deem Carey (CHI RB) – Questionable (Hamstring) / Zach Miller (CHI TE) – Questionable but expected to play (Ribs)

JAX Matchup Rating: 6.5
CHI Matchup Rating: 6.5

Jacksonville Jaguars

Quarterback: Unlike the Colts, the Jaguars chose to take their bye week after the game in London, so they should be fully rested for this contest with the Bears. It’s difficult to make heads or tails out of Jacksonville’s start to the year, as they were a colossal disappointment in the month of September. Though they did beat the Colts, it was a very uneven performance. The offensive line has been hit or miss, Blake Bortles has been inaccurate and has made poor decisions, and the team has had no running game to speak of. That’s not a great recipe for success, but this Bears defense just got ripped apart by Andrew Luck and is missing key pieces in the secondary. Bortles is far too inconsistent to trust for cash games right now, but he is an interesting GPP target in a favorable matchup.

Running Backs: Jacksonville ranks 30th in the league in rushing yards per game, and both T.J. Yeldon and Chris Ivory have been ineffective so far. Neither guy is really standing out as the lead back in this committee, and it makes no sense to target them until a clear leader emerges or an injury occurs. Even in the best of matchups, there’s not much upside here.

Pass Catchers: This game could be one of the sneakier shootout-type contests of the week. For that to happen, the Jaguars are going to need good performances out of their receivers. Allen Robinson has come on strong with three touchdowns in the last two contests, and Bortles is smartly force-feeding him the ball. He deserves that treatment as a budding star at wide receiver in this league. It would help if someone else would emerge, but Allen Hurns has been a disappointment this year. Julius Thomas is expected to return this week, which should definitely help the offense. Don’t sleep on him as a mid-range tight end option that will likely get overlooked by most.

The Takeaway: Don’t worry about figuring out the running game here. Jacksonville will be forced to the air, and Blake Bortles is in play for GPPs despite his inconsistency so far in 2016. Allen Robinson is a top five receiving option this week, while Julius Thomas is an interesting play at tight end in his return from injury.

Chicago Bears

Quarterback: The Bears will certainly have an interesting choice to make when Jay Cutler is healthy. Brian Hoyer has now thrown for 300+ yards in all three of his starts, and he almost hit the 400 mark last week against the Colts. He isn’t forcing the ball to Alshon Jeffery, which has the talking heads in Chicago freaking out. Still, from a fantasy perspective, we can’t deny Hoyer’s numbers. He has been piling up the stats and has logged at least 20 fantasy points in every game he has started. He remains criminally under-priced at $5,800 on DraftKings and $7,000 on FanDuel. That is simply too cheap for the numbers he has been putting up. The Jaguars have a fairly stout pass defense, but I’ll keep riding the Hoyer train until it falls off the tracks. He is once again in play for any format.

Running Backs: Speaking of unheralded fantasy stars like Hoyer, let’s not forget about Jordan Howard. He has looked very good in place of the injured Jeremy Langford, and he could have had an even bigger day in Week 5 if the Bears would not have abandoned the run game. He still finished the game with a remarkable 118 yards on 16 carries, and he also caught a 21 yard touchdown in the second half. Ka’Deem Carey had just one carry. This is Howard’s backfield, and Howard is a very safe option here against a middle of the pack Jacksonville rush defense. His price has risen to reflect his recent performance, so he is no longer a massive bargain, but he is still a fine play in any format — especially if you are fading Hoyer.

Pass Catchers: Alshon Jeffery has a very low target percentage as far as top wide receivers go, and he has been playing through some minor injuries for much of the year. Eddie Royal is also banged up. Kevin White is out. That leaves opportunity for others, and Cameron Meredith took the bull by the horns against the Colts, piling up a sturdy 9/130/1 line in the contest. He remains value-priced at $4,100 on DraftKings and $5,400 on FanDuel. He played on virtually every offensive snap last week. Jeffery’s upside has not yet shown this year, and I would rather go cheap with Meredith or perhaps Zach Miller at tight end.

The Takeaway: There is still plenty of value to go around for DFS, even on a relatively poor Bears team. Brian Hoyer continues to put up big numbers, as does Jordan Howard. Cameron Meredith and Zach Miller are fine values in the passing game. The only person I will actively avoid is Alshon Jeffery, as he is still struggling to get going this year and has been battling some injuries. Hoyer also doesn’t force him the ball, so defenses can easily take Jeffery away and force the other guys to try and beat them.

Los Angeles Rams at Detroit Lions

Editor’s Note: Theo Riddick, Eric Ebron, and Dwayne Washington have been ruled OUT for Week 6.

Los Angeles Rams						Detroit Lions
Vegas Odds		Spread	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Spread	Total	Proj.Pts
		3	43	20				-3	43	23
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	16.4	31	28	28		Offense	23.8	13	13	22
Opp. Defense	25.0	20	21	21		Opp. Defense	21.2	14	14	28
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Detroit Lions	30	12	23	31		Los Angeles Rams	10	19	15	18
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Britt	32	23	0	356		Tate	31	17	0	134
Austin	45	23	1	218		Jones	41	27	3	519
Quick	18	11	3	204		Boldin	28	21	2	184
Kendricks	23	13	0	152		Ebron	25	18	1	210

Notable injuries and suspensions: Theo Riddick (DET RB) – Out (Ankle) / Eric Ebron (DET TE) – Out (Ankle) / Anquan Boldin (DET WR) – Questionable (Ankle)

LA Matchup Rating: 5.5
DET Matchup Rating: 6.0

Los Angeles Rams

Quarterback: Hey, Case Keenum actually threw for 271 yards last week. That’s very good for him! Unfortunately, it came with zero touchdowns and two interceptions. As is always the case, you do not need to consider Case Keenum, especially in a road game against a Detroit defense that did a good job of frustrating Carson Wentz a week ago.

Running Backs: Todd Gurley has seen his snap count rise over the last three weeks, and he has been on the field for at least 80% of the offensive snaps in each of those games. That is an encouraging sign, and the Rams are trusting him more often in the passing game. He wasn’t remarkably efficient against the Bills, but he did manage 108 total yards and a touchdown while touching the ball 26 combined times. Gurley is the only good offensive player the Rams have, and they have a better chance to win the more often Gurley gets the ball. Detroit has allowed 114 rushing yards per game this season and is dealing with some injuries in the front seven. Feel free to target Gurley, who often goes under-owned.

Pass Catchers: There simply isn’t enough upside with Kenny Britt or Tavon Austin to make them worth the massive downside risk, which is often a zero fantasy point game.

The Takeaway: As usual, it’s Gurley or bust with this Los Angeles offense. Gurley is a fine option against a mediocre Detroit rush defense.

Detroit Lions

Editor’s Note: Theo Riddick has been ruled OUT for Week 6. Dwayne Washington saw limited reps in practice on Friday and is questionable.

Quarterback: The Lions are that fickle team that always shows up when you don’t expect them to. That, in a weird way, makes them somewhat predictable, and it’s exactly what made me peg their win over the Eagles on Sunday. How they build on that surprise victory is anyone’s guess. Matthew Stafford only threw for 180 yards in the game, but he only threw six incompletions, he didn’t turn the ball over, and he threw three touchdown passes. He managed a game in a way that he usually doesn’t manage a game, which is a good sign for the team. The Rams have a decent pass defense, and Stafford is far too expensive at $8,000 on FanDuel. He’s a decent play at $6,200 on DraftKings, though I like a few options better. This game has a 44 point projected total, which checks in as one of the lower totals of the week. We don’t have to force Stafford into our lineups.

Running Backs: Detroit is dealing with a thin group of running backs, as Dwayne Washington was forced to sit out last week’s contest. That left Theo Riddick and Zach Zenner as the only healthy options. They have signed Justin Forsett for some added depth, but he is not going to garner much work. Riddick is definitely the better option, as he ran for 49 yards on 11 carries against the Eagles while chipping in a pair of touchdown receptions on his six catches. He is a dynamic PPR asset and also remains fairly affordable on DraftKings. The Rams are much weaker against the run than the pass, and I really like Riddick this week.

FRIDAY UPDATE – Riddick has missed practice Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday and might be staring at a doubtful tag. Dwayne Washington practiced today and actually could be in line to draw a start here. If Washington, Jenner, and Forsett are all active, this might be a situation we want to avoid completely. In any case, cross Riddick off the list.

Pass Catchers: The Lions tried to get Golden Tate involved in Week 5, and it just didn’t work. He caught just three passes for 39 yards, and he has been a massive bust this year. With Eric Ebron also banged up, the majority of the passing game will funnel through Riddick and Marvin Jones, who is having a fine season. It’s Jones or bust in this group right now until a second playmaker emerges or Ebron returns to 100% health.

The Takeaway: The Lions present much better options on DraftKings than FanDuel, as Matthew Stafford is much cheaper on DK and Theo Riddick owners benefit from the full PPR nature of that site. Marvin Jones is in play across the industry as the only reliable pass catching option on the team. The Rams are best attacked via the run game, so expect Riddick and Zach Zenner to see plenty of touches.

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