NHL Grind Down: Monday, April 3rd
The RotoGrinders NHL Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the NHL schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy hockey there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, salaries, and more.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Hockey is an extremely high variance sport. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Remember, these writeups are done prior to lineups being released, so make sure to check our Starting Lineups page to ensure the recommended options are playing.
Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.
Ottawa Senators at Detroit Red Wings
| Ottawa Senators | Detroit Red Wings | ||||||||
 | Craig Anderson |  | Jimmy Howard | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 41-27-9 | 31-35-12 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.54 | 2.63 | 17.50% | 80.40% | Team Stats | 2.41 | 3.00 | 14.20% | 81.00% |
Senators 5v5 (adj), past 25 games: 48.4 CF% / 50.5 GF% / 48.2 xGF%
Red Wings 5v5 (adj), past 25 games: 47.9 CF% / 41.8 GF% / 47.3 xGF%
It doesn’t sound as though Erik Karlsson is ready to return tonight, so the Ottawa offense doesn’t look as good as it could. Ottawa fans are probably more concerned with Karlsson’s impact on the Senators’ sliding spot in the standings. They desperately need these two points as they have been punted from the Atlantic Division playoff seeding (for now) and are now clinging to the second Wild Card spot. For DFS purposes we care not for such plights, and only care to the matchup at hand. The Red Wings are a low event team and don’t have many crooked numbers, but they do allow a nice proportional share of high-danger shot attempts compare to their low overall CA/60. Their xGA/60 is 2.62, a rate that is a little higher than average. The team did go toe-to-toe with Toronto last game, so perhaps now that Detroit is out of the playoff picture the game will open up a bit. The line of interest with Ottawa is arguably that of Kyle Turris, Bobby Ryan, and Mark Stone. Stone and Turris have terrific potential most nights and while Ryan lags a bit, the trio did stay together on the power play last game. Mike Hoffman is always in play as one-off (he skates on the top PP unit too). While his linemates leave plenty to be desired (#FreeMikeHoffman), his center Jean-Gabriel Pageau is cheap and does shoot enough to make for a nice correlation pairing. (It’s a short slate, remember, but please don’t roster Tom Pyatt.) Derrick Brassard looks like the odd-man out for right now. Despite his high 5v5 CF% he hasn’t translated that success to points, and we don’t get DFS points for Corsi (yet). His 5v5 linemates are trade deadline acquisitions Viktor Stalberg and Alex Burrows, neither of whom offer much in the way of floor or ceiling. Brassard is also off the top power play unit, though he does now skate with his wingers on the advantage as well. Dion Phaneuf gets a nice value boost with Karlsson out as he has the top power play unit blueline to himself. He’s not a terribly exciting player at this stage but he has the opportunity and comes with a low price. Chris Wideman is a nice punt play on the blueline as his role has expanded – he nearly doubled his regular time on ice last game when he skated 25 minutes, including some time as a secondary power play blueliner.
With Karlsson on the shelf (and to a much lesser extent, Cody Ceci and Marc Methot) the Red Wing offense is a bit more attractive than they may otherwise be. We saw the Wings open the playbook, per se, last game as they put over 40 shots on net against Toronto. Despite an unimpressive CF/60 number over their past 25 games, the Ottawa defense is conducive to this more exciting level of play continuing tonight. Ottawa comes in to this one with the league’s second highest CA/60 over their past 25 games, behind only Arizona who aren’t playing tonight. Craig Anderson should be in net and he’s been beatable lately, allowing 15 goals over his past five starts. The early Vegas line on this is close to a pick-‘em with Detroit slightly favored and a game total of 5.0. Detroit could sneak by (as best they can on a three game slate) and prices are pretty low on both FanDuel and DraftKings. Henrik Zetterberg, Tomas Tatar, and Gustav Nyquist remain a great stack as the top option for Detroit. They have a solid chemistry, push play well, and stay together on the power play. Dylan Larkin and Andreas Athanasiou make for a nice pair down the lineup a little bit; Athanasiou has been playing quite well and should be able to exploit Ottawa’s depth defenders. They also skate with Justin Abdelkader at 5v5 and Abdelkader does skate on the top power play unit, if you want to go there. For whatever reason Niklas Kronwall still mans the point on the top power play unit, so we can’t completely ignore him yet if looking to maximize a Detroit play. Mike Green has been coming to life of late, with goals in three of five and nine shots in his past two. If his role were to be flipped with Kronwall’s on the power play, he becomes a bit more interesting, but for now his exposure to the top line stays limited to 5v5.
Senators Elite Plays:Kyle Turris, Mark Stone, Mike Hoffman
Senators Secondary Plays:Bobby Ryan, Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Dion Phaneuf, Chris Wideman
Red Wings Elite Plays:Henrik Zetterberg, Gustav Nyquist, Tomas Tatar, Andreas Athanasiou
Red Wings Secondary Plays:Dylan Larkin, Mike Green
Toronto Maple Leafs at Buffalo Sabres
| Toronto Maple Leafs | Buffalo Sabres | ||||||||
 | Frederik Andersen |  | Anders Nilsson | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 38-24-15 | 32-34-12 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 3.11 | 2.79 | 24.20% | 83.00% | Team Stats | 2.49 | 2.75 | 24.90% | 77.40% |
Maple Leafs 5v5 (adj), past 25 games: 50.2 CF% / 52.1 GF% / 52.4 xGF%
Sabres 5v5 (adj), past 25 games: 47.5 CF% / 39.4 GF% / 48.1 xGF%
With just three games on the slate, the Maple Leafs look to have the best on-paper matchup and will be the top team of the night in virtually all DFS formats. There are several areas where the Toronto offense has an advantage over the Sabres. First, Buffalo’s defensive group is weak overall and certainly in the depth rankings. This should allow Toronto’s three lines to push play a good deal; over their past 25 games the Sabres have averaged close 59 5v5 shot attempts allowed over 60 minutes. Second, Toronto has the second best power play in the league (behind Buffalo) while the Sabres maintain a weaker than average penalty kill rate (though Buffalo has been fairly disciplined). Finally, the Leafs are rested while Buffalo lost on home ice to the Islanders yesterday. When these two teams met up about a week ago, the line of Mitchell Marner, James van Riemsdyk, and Tyler Bozak saw Ryan O’Reilly at 5v5 with Jack Eichel out against Auston Matthews. With Buffalo taking that game, it’s probably fair to assume assignments stick. Not surprisingly the Bozak-Marner-JVR line was the quieter line of the group, with Matthews scoring as he does. A concern with the Leafs is how they appear to be slowing the game down a little bit as they get to playoff mode. It sounds kind of silly but the Leafs haven’t put 30 shots on goal in any of their last three games (they did get 34 on net in Buffalo last week). Toronto comes in to this one with an xGF/60 at 5v5 of 3.00, the highest of the slate, while Buffalo has an xGA/60 of 2.6. With the Bozak and Matthews lines expected to soak up plenty of ownership, it’s a good spot to take a look at “(player-popup)Nazem Kadri”:/players/nazem-kadri-14120’s line. He’s been playing great and is viable in all formats (as part of a stack or a one-off), and his line’s ownership should lag behind the other two. Kadri skates on the top power play unit (with Bozak, Marner, and JVR) while Kadri’s linemates Connor Brown and Leo Komarov skate together on the second unit. There is certainly upside with this group. Nikita Zaitsev correlates with the Bozak line on the power play but Matthews at 5v5, with Jake Gardiner skating the blueline on the second power play unit (Matthews-Nylander) and sees time with the Bozak line at 5v5. So, not overwhelming correlations outside of power play stacks and Toronto’s defenders are very hit-or-miss. If Kasperi Kapanen were looking for a great spot for that first NHL goal, this may be it as he’ll go against the bottom of Buffalo’s roster. Of course he’s playing 10 minutes per night and has just four shots on goal through three games from the fourth line, but… I mean stranger ultra-punts have worked, right? It looks like Robin Lehner will start again tonight. While he’s had a strong season, he did not look good yesterday and has an .894 save percentage on zero days rest this year (five games, small sample size).
We’ve got some game-stack appeal here as Buffalo’s top six should be able to keep pace with Toronto’s offense, and the young talent could create plenty of breaks in both directions. It doesn’t look like Kyle Okposo will be well enough to suit up, so Buffalo’s lines will likely mirror yesterday’s. Even on a short slate the Buffalo exposure will likely stay limited to the top six – the bottom six forwards are low floor, low ceiling. Evander Kane is up to the top line with Ryan O’Reilly and Tyler Ennis, while Jack Eichel, Sam Reinhart, and Marcus Foligno skate on the second line. Unlike with Toronto, there’s not much a “sneaky” third line option unless your best friend is variance (cue the Evan Rodrigues hat trick). Freddie Andersen will be in goal and he’s coming off a busy outing in which Detroit (more on them in a minute) peppered him with 42 shots (with four going in). That kind of production from a lower-end Red Wing offense should inspire some confidence with Buffalo’s offense. Toronto’s 5v5 xGA/60 of 2.72 should inspire a bit more. The Leafs aren’t really allowing a ton of scoring chances and high-danger shots at 5v5, but their fast pace and open offense does allow a good volume of shots to get through. At the very least there is a floor to work with among the usual Buffalo suspects. If we work on the reasonable assumption that the matchups will look similar to how they did a week ago, both Ryan O’Reilly and Jack Eichel will see limited time against Nazem Kadri, a positive development. Toronto’s penalty kill has been pretty good this year but Buffalo has the league’s best power play, lighting the lamp nearly one out of four times on the advantage. Buffalo bills their top power play units with the main targets of the 5v5 line assignments (O’Reilly, Eichel, Reinhart, and Kane) so it opens the door to so interesting stacking options, and prices outside of Eichel’s are reasonable.
Maple Leafs Elite Plays:Nazem Kadri, Auston Matthews, William Nylander, Nikita Zaitsev
Maple Leafs Secondary Plays: James van Riemsdyk, Mitchell Marner, Connor Brown, Leo Komarov, Jake Gardiner
Sabres Elite Plays:Jack Eichel, Evander Kane, Rasmus Ristolainen
Sabres Secondary Plays: Ryan O’Reilly, Sam Reinhart, Tyler Ennis
Montréal Canadiens at Florida Panthers
| Montréal Canadiens | Florida Panthers | ||||||||
 | Carey Price |  | Reto Berra | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 45-24-9 | 33-34-11 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.74 | 2.40 | 19.90% | 80.80% | Team Stats | 2.45 | 2.84 | 16.80% | 85.50% |
Canadiens 5v5 (adj), past 25 games: 52.4 CF% / 51.4 GF% / 52.9 xGF%
Panthers 5v5 (adj), past 25 games: 49.9 CF% / 45.1 GF% / 47.6 xGF%
As the Panthers limp to the golf courses, it’s hard to not like the Canadiens a bit in tonight’s road matchup. Florida has all kinds of injury woes, a fitting if disappointing continuation of the trend from this season. Aaron Ekblad was targeting tonight to return but Florida would be wise to keep him shut down. Roberto Luongo and James Reimer are hurt, so Retto Berra looks like he could draw another start. Berra has, predictably, been terrible with the Panthers, though it’s not entirely his fault. The Panthers have been allowing one of the highest rates of high-danger shot attempts per 60 minutes at 5v5 over their past 25 games. Though their CA/60 isn’t overly high, they do tend to allow shots to get to the net as opposing offenses average 32 shots on goal per 60 at 5v5. Aleksander Barkov may be out as well, taking away a relief valve from the defense. With Phillip Danault, Alexander Radulov, and Max Pacioretty coming on lately, they make for a great stack in all formats. With limited options on tonight’s slate, we can get a little cute in looking at Montreal’s secondary scorers. Specifically, Brendan Gallagher has been shooting and looks more like the dynamic player he has been in the past despite limited time on ice. His linemates at 5v5 are less than ideal (Paul Byron, Tomas Plekanec) so he’s fine as a one-off. The line of Andrew Shaw, Alex Galchenyuk, and Artturi Lehkonen have some GPP stacking appeal, however. They are cheap and though they may carry a limited floor, they drive play well enough to take advantage of a friendly matchup tonight. Galchenyuk and Lehkonen stick together on the second power play unit, too, while Shaw has been skating with the top unit. Shea Weber and Andrei Markov remain strong options on the blueline despite Florida’s stout penalty kill numbers this year. The best penalty killer is the goalie, and with Berra in net, the special team’s matchup isn’t as bad as it may seem. Jeff Petry and Nathan Beaulieu have seen their prices come way down so they are viable as cost savings plays on the blueline, if needed. Carey Price is the top goalie of the night.
If Price is the top option in net, then, the outlook for the Panthers isn’t overly impressive. If Aleksander Barkov is unable to suit up again, the Panthers already poor offense looks more bleak. Florida comes in to this one with a poor xGF/60 (2.38), poor shot generation (54.02 CF/60), a poor power play, poor scoring chances and high-danger shots generated… and they are facing Carey Price without their top center. All of the 5v5 numbers plus the power play are in the bottom third of the league. Montreal, meanwhile, has been playing a strong style of defense with one of the lowest shots allowed per 60 minutes at 5v5 (53.02) over their past 25 games, and they have the ninth lowest xGA/60. It’s not all doom and gloom (but it mostly is) as Vincent Trocheck has thrived this year filling in for Aleksander Barkov. His torrid pace from earlier this winter is gone but he’s a minutes eater that can pump shot volume. As a contrarian play, he makes for a nice pairing with Jonathan Huberdeau and Jaromir Jagr on the top line.
Canadiens Elite Plays:Max Pacioretty, Alexander Radulov, Phillip Danault, Brendan Gallagher
Canadiens Secondary Plays:Alex Galchenyuk, Artturi Lehkonen, Andrew Shaw, Shea Weber, Andrei Markov
Panthers Elite Plays: None
Panthers Secondary Plays:Jonathan Marchessault, Jonathan Huberdeau, Vincent Trocheck