NHL Grind Down: Monday, February 27th
The RotoGrinders NHL Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the NHL schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy hockey there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, salaries, and more.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Hockey is an extremely high variance sport. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Remember, these writeups are done prior to lineups being released, so make sure to check our Starting Lineups page to ensure the recommended options are playing.
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Montréal Canadiens at New Jersey Devils
| Montréal Canadiens | New Jersey Devils | ||||||||
 | Al Montoya |  | Cory Schneider | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 33-21-8 | 25-25-11 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.74 | 2.55 | 21.10% | 80.50% | Team Stats | 2.28 | 2.85 | 18.10% | 81.00% |
The Canadiens have been struggling down the stretch this season, but Claude Julien’s hockey club did pick up a very important win in Toronto over the weekend and still find themselves narrowly hanging on to the top spot in the Atlantic Division. They’ll head to New Jersey tonight looking to pick up consecutive wins for the first time since early January. Montreal has defeated this New Jersey team in both prior meetings this season and do own a substantial advantage by puck possession standards (5.47 CF% vs 46.6%). Max Pacioretty leads the charge offensively and will enter tonight just one goal shy of posting fourth straight 30+ goal season. He scored a power-play goal against Toronto on Saturday night and has already found the back of the net twice in those two prior meetings against the Devils. Alexander Radulov joins him (and Phillip Danault) on the top forward line and he owns three assists of his own against New Jersey this season. Alternatively, Alex Galchenyuk finally snapped out of his scoring funk in their last game and looks to be back to full health. He torched the Devils for a goal and two assists the only time he’s faced them this season and center’s the Canadiens very dangerous #1 power-play unit. Shea Weber is the top option on defense if you can afford him, but Andrei Markov, Jeff Petry and all see plenty of time on the power-play and are fine options if you’re in need of some salary relief.
New Jersey has averaged an Eastern Conference low 2.28 goals per game this season and are not an exciting team to target in DFS hockey. They’ll face a stiff test tonight against one of the best goaltenders on the planet and have lost each of their last three games. However, with just six teams to choose from tonight, you can’t ignore them completely. Taylor Hall is easily their most dangerous offensive weapon and figures to be the focal point of Claude Julien’s defensive efforts. He leads the team with 41 points in 51 games and has had success against Montreal this season as he’s scored a goal and dished out a pair of assists in their first two meetings. Hall is slated to be joined by Travis Zajac and Kyle Palmieri on the top forward line and #1 power-play unit, and that makes them both fine GPP options. Adam Henrique scored his 16th goal of the season on Saturday against New York and rarely commands much attention, making him worth a GPP flier as well. On defense, it’s a bit of a wasteland for fantasy production. Both Andy Greene and Damon Severson soak up nearly all of the available playing time on the point of the power-play, and they do see a small fantasy boost thanks to the Canadiens’ lackluster 80.5% penalty kill.
Montreal Canadiens
Team Metrics – 2016-17 – 52.47 CF%, 5×5 Goal Differential 17, 113.91 CP60
Elite Options
Max Pacioretty ($7,700 FD, $7,000 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 65.12 CF60, 2.81 xGF60, 100.68 PDO
Alexander Radulov ($5,700 FD, $5,300 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 60.76 CF60, 2.92 xGF60, 101.46 PDO
Shea Weber – 16-17 Metrics – 56.67 CF60, 2.38 xGF60, 101.37 PDO
Secondary Options
Alex Galchenyuk ($5,600 FD, $6,000 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 61.27 CF60, 2.81 xGF60, 101.03 PDO
Phillip Danault ($4,500 FD, $4,700 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 63.27 CF60, 2.72 xGF60, 99.59 PDO
Brendan Gallagher ($5,000 FD, $4,900 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 70.08 CF60, 3.18 xGF60, 100.66 PDO
Andrei Markov ($5,100 FD, $4,100 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 64.38 CF60, 2.73 xGF60, 101.48 PDO
Jeff Petry ($4,000 FD, $4,300 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 65.6 CF60, 2.95 xGF60, 100.23 PDO
Expected Netminder
Al Montoya – My Ratings (out of 10): 7.5 Cash, 7.5 GPP
New Jersey Devils
Team Metrics – 2016-17 – 46.6 CF%, 5×5 Goal Differential -27, 104.41 CP60
Elite Options
Taylor Hall ($6,800 FD, $6,500 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 56.46 CF60, 2.71 xGF60, 99.98 PDO
Secondary Options
Kyle Palmieri ($5,900 FD, $4,900 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 48.75 CF60, 2.17 xGF60, 103.59 PDO
Adam Henrique ($5,100 FD, $4,300 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 50.09 CF60, 2.29 xGF60, 100.39 PDO
Travis Zajac ($4,800 FD, $4,400 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 52.57 CF60, 2.41 xGF60, 100.19 PDO
Andy Greene ($3,300 FD, $3,400 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 49.36 CF60, 2.22 xGF60, 98.48 PDO
Expected Netminder
Cory Schneider – My Ratings (out of 10): 5.5 Cash, 7 GPP
Ottawa Senators at Tampa Bay Lightning
| Ottawa Senators | Tampa Bay Lightning | ||||||||
 | Mike Condon |  | Andrei Vasilevskiy | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 33-21-6 | 27-25-8 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.61 | 2.63 | 17.20% | 83.40% | Team Stats | 2.72 | 2.78 | 21.60% | 80.90% |
Ottawa picked up a huge win in Southern Florida yesterday, and now are firmly within striking distance of the Montreal Canadiens for the top spot in the Atlantic Division. They were thrilled to get both Mike Hoffman and Mark Stone back in the lineup, and Bobby Ryan aside, are finally returning to full health. They rolled to a 5-2 victory in their last visit to Tampa Bay (on Feb. 2nd) and have now posted a solid 7-5-0 record during the month of February. Targeting the Senators has to start with blue-liner Erik Karlsson. Karlsson has posted a team high 54 points in 60 games and leads the entire NHL with 161 blocked shots for good measure. He’s already racked up three assists in two games against the Lightning and is one of the safest cash game options on the board tonight. Up-front, Guy Boucher has two very dangerous scoring lines at his disposal. The trio of Zack Smith, Kyle Turris and Mike Hoffman are very fun to watch, meanwhile Derick Brassard centers Ryan Dzingel and Mark Stone on an underrated secondary scoring line. Smith, Turris and Hoffman have combined for three goals and three assists in those two prior meetings and my preferred targets tonight.
Things have not gone the way many envisioned this season for the Tampa Bay Lightning. They dropped a 3-2 decision at home to Calgary in their last game and perhaps finally waved the white-flag by sending Ben Bishop to the Los Angeles Kings on Sunday afternoon. With that said, Nikita Kucherov has established himself as one of the most gifted offensive players in the league. Kucherov has posted 54 points in 53 games this season and is clearly going to be a major piece to this franchise going forward. He’s scored goals in each of the last two games and has picked up a pair of assists in the two meetings against Ottawa this season. He’ll be joined on the top forward line by Ondrej Palat and Tyler Johnson and that solidifies both forwards as fine targets. Johnson has scored a goal and added three assists over his last four games and his blazing speed will likely be on full display as the Senators enjoy pushing the pace (114.4 CP60). Jonathan Drouin missed their last game with an illness, but should be ready to go tonight. He’s flashed a unique offensive skillset in recent games and is a very intriguing GPP target. On defense, Victor Hedman challenges his counterpart Erik Karlsson for the top option on the board. He’s scored three goals and handed out four assists in his last five games and is just one point shy from his second career 50+ point season.
Ottawa Senators
Team Metrics – 2016-17 – 48.19 CF%, 5×5 Goal Differential -11, 114.4 CP60
Elite Options
Erik Karlsson ($7,000 FD, $7,300 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 57.01 CF60, 2.44 xGF60, 99.96 PDO
Mike Hoffman ($6,400 FD, $5,900 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 57.87 CF60, 2.33 xGF60, 103.17 PDO
Mark Stone ($6,500 FD, $5,700 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 63.28 CF60, 2.73 xGF60, 100.14 PDO
Secondary Options
Kyle Turris ($5,800 FD, $5,800 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 55.49 CF60, 2.32 xGF60, 100.28 PDO
Zack Smith ($4,600 FD, $4,000 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 59.05 CF60, 2.47 xGF60, 99.54 PDO
Derick Brassard ($5,500 FD, $4,900 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 63.48 CF60, 2.65 xGF60, 99.63 PDO
Dion Phaneuf ($4,700 FD, $4,400 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 54.09 CF60, 2.24 xGF60, 98.56 PDO
Expected Netminder
Mike Condon – My Ratings (out of 10): 5.5 Cash, 6.5 GPP
Tampa Bay Lightning
Team Metrics – 2016-17 – 51.38 CF%, 5×5 Goal Differential -8, 109.45 CP60
Elite Options
Nikita Kucherov ($7,500 FD, $7,300 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 58.99 CF60, 2.98 xGF60, 102.43 PDO
Tyler Johnson ($5,700 FD, $5,300 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 53.32 CF60, 2.36 xGF60, 99.55 PDO
Victor Hedman ($6,300 FD, $6,300 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 58.93 CF60, 2.49 xGF60, 99.93 PDO
Secondary Options
Jonathan Drouin ($5,300 FD, $5,400 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 55.61 CF60, 2.31 xGF60, 99.68 PDO
Ondrej Palat ($4,900 FD, $5,000 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 56.04 CF60, 2.62 xGF60, 99.44 PDO
Brayden Point ($3,700 FD, $3,900 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 58.21 CF60, 2.36 xGF60, 100.46 PDO
Expected Netminder
Andrei Vasilevskiy – My Ratings (out of 10): 7 Cash, 7 GPP
Los Angeles Kings at Minnesota Wild
| Los Angeles Kings | Minnesota Wild | ||||||||
 | Jonathan Quick |  | Devan Dubnyk | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 30-27-4 | 39-14-6 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.44 | 2.43 | 16.70% | 84.50% | Team Stats | 3.31 | 2.31 | 22.80% | 83.10% |
The Kings picked up a potentially season-saving win against the Anaheim Ducks over the weekend and added some stability in net with the acquisition of Ben Bishop. Still this team is just 3-6-0 over their last nine games and are quickly running out of time if they plan on playing their way into the Stanley Cup playoffs. They have scored a measly 2.18 goals per game during the month of February and have the toughest matchup on the board tonight as Minnesota has allowed a Western Conference low 2.31 goals against per game this season. This would usually not be a place I’d want to target, but three-game slates make you do some weird things. Up front, Jeff Carter has led the way. He scored his 30th goal of the season on Saturday and now has a team high 55 points in 61 games. He’ll be joined by Tyler Toffoli and Tanner Pearson at even strength, leaving captain Anze Kopitar to play alongside Dustin Brown and rookie Adrian Kempe. Playing alongside Kopitar is a fantasy boost for them both, but they’re still far too inconsistent for my liking in cash games. Despite the perceived very tough matchup, it is worth noting that Carter has torched Minnesota this season; scoring a goal and adding four assists in their two previous meetings. On defense, the Kings have three fine options in Drew Doughty, Alec Martinez and Jake Muzzin.
Minnesota made a statement that they’re taking going all-in for a Stanley Cup run this season by paying a hefty price to bring in Martin Hanzal from Arizona over the weekend. This team is loaded with quality depth both on offense and defense, and it’s becoming pretty clear that they’ll be major factors this spring. With Hanzal now in the mix, Bruce Boudreau now has three extremely capable scoring lines to throw over the boards. It looks like Hanzal will skate between Jason Pominville and Zach Parise on one line, while team leading scorer Mikael Granlund will join Jason Zucker and Mikko Koivu on another. This leaves the trio of Nino Niederreiter, Eric Staal and Charlie Coyle to continue to play together as well. Simply put, they’re stacked. The only problem now is trying to find out which line to target on a given night. On defense, Ryan Suter continues to be a work horse and holds the reigns as the point-man on the top power-play unit. Meanwhile, Jared Spurgeon and Mathew Dumba can be found at reasonable asking prices across the industry and both see a healthy dose of power-play time with the second unit.
Los Angeles Kings
Team Metrics – 2016-17 – 55.06 CF%, 5×5 Goal Differential 0, 109.75 CP60
Elite Options
Jeff Carter ($7,400 FD, $7,200 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 61.09 CF60, 2.68 xGF60, 100.58 PDO
Secondary Options
Tyler Toffoli ($5,500 FD, $5,200 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 62.01 CF60, 2.63 xGF60, 98.59 PDO
Anze Kopitar ($5,800 FD, $5,200 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 63.78 CF60, 2.93 xGF60, 98.66 PDO
Tanner Pearson ($5,800 FD, $5,600 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 64.63 CF60, 2.7 xGF60, 100.55 PDO
Drew Doughty ($5,400 FD, $5,200 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 61.72 CF60, 2.65 xGF60, 100.48 PDO
Alec Martinez ($4,500 FD, $4,700 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 60.41 CF60, 2.64 xGF60, 95.43 PDO
Expected Netminder
Jonathan Quick – My Ratings (out of 10): 5.5 Cash, 6.5 GPP
Minnesota Wild
Team Metrics – 2016-17 – 47.44 CF%, 5×5 Goal Differential 39, 112.89 CP60
Elite Options
Mikael Granlund ($7,400 FD, $6,500 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 53.62 CF60, 2.68 xGF60, 106.84 PDO
Ryan Suter ($5,400 FD, $4,900 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 53.27 CF60, 2.62 xGF60, 105.06 PDO
Secondary Options
Mikko Koivu ($6,700 FD, $5,800 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 54.41 CF60, 2.67 xGF60, 107 PDO
Martin Hanzal ( FD, DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 55.55 CF60, 2.35 xGF60, 98.23 PDO
Zach Parise ($6,700 FD, $6,100 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 59.54 CF60, 3.1 xGF60, 99.04 PDO
Nino Niederreiter ($5,500 FD, $5,500 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 57.46 CF60, 2.39 xGF60, 104.24 PDO
Jason Pominville ($5,600 FD, $4,900 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 62.58 CF60, 2.74 xGF60, 99.29 PDO
Eric Staal ($5,300 FD, $6,000 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 56.95 CF60, 2.64 xGF60, 100.07 PDO
Expected Netminder
Devan Dubnyk – My Ratings (out of 10): 8.5 Cash, 8.5 GPP