NHL Grind Down: Monday, March 28th

by Joe (Joda) Last Updated 2016-03-29 02:53:36

The RotoGrinders NHL Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the NHL schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy hockey there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, salaries, and more.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Hockey is an extremely high variance sport. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Remember, these writeups are done prior to lineups being released, so make sure to check our Starting Lineups page to ensure the recommended options are playing.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Columbus Blue Jackets at Washington Capitals – 07:00 PM EDT

Columbus Blue Jackets					Washington Capitals
			Sergei Bobrovsky					Braden Holtby
			Record					Record
			30-37-8					53-16-5
Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
Team Stats	2.51	3.05	17.10%	81.00%	Team Stats	3.08	2.34	22.80%	84.60%

After pounding the Flyers and Hurricanes with a combined 97 shots during two home games, the Columbus Blue Jackets went to Nashville and managed only 19 shots on goal as they dropped their fifth consecutive road game. In these five losses, the Blue Jackets have been shutout once while scoring just a goal in each of the others. A matchup with Braden Holtby and the Washington Capitals is unlikely to change much for Columbus; in fact, they are the biggest underdog they have been since Curtis McElhinney started in Chicago back in October. John Tortorella keeps tinkering with lines, further weakening a team which has little chemistry. Veteran Fedor Tyutin, who leads his team in most hits by a defenseman, is expected to miss again tonight.

Washington was blanked 4:0 on Saturday night by the St. Louis Blues, who recorded their fourth consecutive shutout. The score does not reflect how close the game was. Although no other team is on the Capitals’ heels for the Presidents’ Trophy, they can clinch it tonight with either a win or an overtime loss. Washington has responded well all year off a loss in regulation, as they are 14-0-1. Look for Braden Holtby, who is 24-3-1 with a 2.07 GAA and .926 Sv% at home, to get the call. He is the elite option in net as he pursues Martin Brodeur’s single-season wins record at 48. On offense, everything starts with Alex Ovechkin, and while he has not recorded a multi-point game in over a month, the matchup here is spectacular. Ovechkin’s shot volume alone makes him a cash game must-have. Pairing him with Nicklas Backstrom, who had two goals against the Blue Jackets in their previous meeting, makes for a good 1-2 punch tonight. Not lost in the shuffle is young Evgeny Kuznetsov who is fourth in the league in assists at 53. T.J. Oshie is expected to return for Washington, so keep your eye on the lines.

Elite Plays

CBJ: None
WSH: Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom, Evgeny Kuznetsov, John Carlson, Braden Holtby

Secondary Plays

CBJ: None
WSH: T.J. Oshie, Justin Williams, Andre Burakovsky, Matt Niskanen

Winnipeg Jets at Philadelphia Flyers – 07:00 PM EDT

Winnipeg Jets					Philadelphia Flyers
			Michael Hutchinson					Steve Mason
			Record					Record
			31-38-6					36-25-13
Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
Team Stats	2.53	2.89	14.30%	78.50%	Team Stats	2.58	2.55	18.10%	80.80%

While the Jets surprised some last Thursday in their 4:1 home win against the Kings, the odds are stacked against them tonight as they travel to Philadelphia. The Jets have dropped four of their last five road games, and with Philadelphia fighting for every point, they will likely drop another tonight. In the past week, the Jets have lost a lot of their depth in Mathieu Perreault, Tobias Enstrom, and Tyler Myers. They did get Nikolaj Ehlers back to skate alongside Blake Wheeler and Mark Scheifele, but outside of the top line, this is an AHL roster. The Jets have converted only 1 of their 31 power play opportunities (3%) in their last 10 games and will find it difficult again tonight against Steve Mason, who has looked great lately. Furthermore, Mason is 4-0-1 with a 1.11 GAA and .963 Sv% in his career against Winnipeg.

The Flyers are currently tied with the Red Wings for the last wild-card in the Eastern Conference with a game in hand. A matchup tonight against the road-weary Jets (14-20-3) is a good one to keep pace in the playoff race. The Flyers are coming off a tough loss to red-hot Mike Smith and the Coyotes on Saturday night, but they have not lost two in a row since a back-to-back on Valentine’s Day. The line to target here is the top line of Brayden Schenn, Claude Giroux, and Wayne Simmonds. The Jets are the fifth-most penalized team in the league, and they also have one of the poorest penalty kills as opponents are converting 21.5% of their opportunities with the man-advantage. Claude Giroux is the safest Flyer, but it is interesting to note that he has only seven goals at home compared to 14 on the road. If you like, the cheapest exposure to the Flyers’ top line is through Brayden Schenn whose 26 points (12 goals, 14 assists) in 27 games after the All-Star break matches his point total in 45 games before the All-Star break.

Elite Plays

WPG: None
PHI: Claude Giroux, Brayden Schenn, Shayne Gostisbehere

Secondary Plays

WPG: Blake Wheeler, Dustin Byfuglien
PHI: Wayne Simmonds, Sean Couturier, Jakub Voracek, Steve Mason

Buffalo Sabres at Detroit Red Wings – 07:30 PM EDT

Buffalo Sabres					Detroit Red Wings
			Chad Johnson					Petr Mrazek
			Record					Record
			31-34-10					37-27-11
Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
Team Stats	2.36	2.61	18.50%	82.00%	Team Stats	2.53	2.68	18.00%	80.80%

It has been a fantastic season for Buffalo as the Sabres (31-34-10) currently have 72 points. Last year was an abomination as they managed only 54 points. The Sabres have recorded back-to-back wins against non-playoff teams, and if we look ahead to April, Detroit looks like the last team out unless they show more then they have. This is a game which sets up well for Evander Kane. Despite 41 shots on goal in his last eight games, Kane only has one goal to show for it. The Red Wings have been playing very sloppily and have given up a staggering 19 goals in their last four games as neither goalie is displaying much confidence.

Detroit was embarrassed on Saturday as the Penguins went to the Joe and put up a touchdown. Nick Bonino and Phil Kessel both had a goal and four helpers, and Detroit showed little to inspire confidence in them, even versus a mediocre Buffalo team. Henrik Zetterberg has been in a year-long slump, clearly showing his age, while sharpshooting Gustav Nyquist has only three goals in 26 games after the All-Star break. Pavel Datsyuk has been the Wings’ best player, but he is skating alongside Darren Helm and Anthony Mantha now which lowers his value slightly, especially since he is the highest-priced Red Wing. Predicting which Wings line scores is close to impossible, so even though prices have come down, the Wings are best kept for tournament play.

Elite Plays

BUF: None
DET: None

Secondary Plays

BUF: Evander Kane, Ryan O’Reilly, Jack Eichel
DET: Henrik Zetterberg, Pavel Datsyuk, Dylan Larkin, Mike Green

Toronto Maple Leafs at Tampa Bay Lightning – 07:30 PM EDT

Toronto Maple Leafs					Tampa Bay Lightning
			Garret Sparks					Ben Bishop
			Record					Record
			27-36-11					43-27-5
Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
Team Stats	2.36	2.85	15.00%	80.20%	Team Stats	2.77	2.39	16.70%	83.80%

There is no denying that the Leafs have been playing better, yet it is important to note that all of this play came on home ice. On the road, the Leafs are 13-21 and have scored the fewest goals at just 2.03 per game. They also own the league’s worst goal differential on the road at -0.92. Surprisingly, the Leafs are the sixth-best team in shots taken per game on the road at 30.4 which sets up nicely for Lightning goalie Ben Bishop, provided you like the Lightning tonight. The Bolts recently lost defensive stalwart Anton Stralman which thins an already questionable blue line. Everyone on Toronto is cheap, but it is difficult to predict how this group of young players will adapt on the road, especially against a fast, strong team like the Lightning.

Steven Stamkos comes into tonight in dazzling form as he has powered the Lightning with seven goals in his last six games. These goals came while playing alongside Nikita Kucherov however, and Kucherov was not present at the morning skate today. If Kucherov misses, which it appears so, Valtteri Filppula is expected to play on the first line alongside Killorn and Stamkos. He makes for a nice source of salary relief tonight as he is also centering the top power play unit and has had good success with Stammer over the years. Two thirds of the triplets are in play tonight as well. Ondrej Palat has two goals and five assists in his last four games, while Tyler Johnson has goals in back-to-back games. On defense, Victor Hedman costs a pretty penny and should only be reserved as a secondary play given that his partner Stralman is out as Matthew Carle is not the same smooth-moving defenseman that Stralman is.

Elite Plays

TOR: None
TB: Steven Stamkos, Ondrej Palat, Tyler Johnson, Ben Bishop

Secondary Plays

TOR: None
TB: Alex Killorn, Valtteri Filppula, Victor Hedman

Colorado Avalanche at Nashville Predators – 08:00 PM EDT

Colorado Avalanche					Nashville Predators
			Semyon Varlamov					Pekka Rinne
			Record					Record
			38-33-4					39-23-13
Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
Team Stats	2.61	2.83	18.90%	82.20%	Team Stats	2.75	2.52	19.80%	80.80%

Back-to-back losses has evaporated the Avalanche’s hopes of making the playoffs. In their most recent game, Minnesota bullied them all over the ice and it is unexpected that much will change tonight when they take on a hot Predators team. Colorado is the worst possession team in the league while Nashville is one of the best. With Matt Duchene and Nathan MacKinnon also out of the lineup for Colorado, they will be in a lot of trouble this evening. Outside of a slow start against Vancouver, Nashville has been scoring for fun at home lately having potted the following totals: 5, 4, 4, 5, and 5. Colorado is unlikely to hold the puck much tonight which should give the Predators numerous, high-quality scoring chances. With the playoffs out of the picture for Colorado, there is not much to be excited about on their end.

Nashville plays their best hockey at home, where they are 21-10-6 and have won six of their last seven. While Colorado has been competitive on the road this year (21-16), they have been very fortunate. It is a great time to target against them, especially with how explosive the Predators have looked lately. Flip Forsberg has points in four straight and has been a monster at home, recording 34 points (20 goals, 14 assists, +12) in 37 games. He had a goal and an assist in Nashville’s 5:2 win in Colorado back on March 5th. Sniper James Neal has seven goals and three assists in his last six games and has been a monster on home ice too. Neal has 31 points (17 goals, 14 assists, +17) in 37 home games and should be targeted in all formats while he is hot. On defense, Shea Weber and Roman Josi figure to be involved in the scoresheet tonight. Both had monster games against the Blue Jackets on Saturday night, yet their price did not move at all on FanDuel. Pekka Rinne may not see many shots, but he is one of the best options in net tonight and has a great chance to send the Avalanche to back-to-back shutouts.

Elite Plays

COL: None
NSH: Filip Forsberg, James Neal, Ryan Johansen, Shea Weber, Roman Josi, Pekka Rinne

Secondary Plays

COL: None
NSH: Craig Smith, Ryan Ellis

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