NHL Grind Down: Wednesday, October 7th

by John Britt (jmbwngfn) Last Updated 2015-10-09 01:47:04

The RotoGrinders NHL Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the NHL schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy hockey, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, salaries, and more.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Remember, these writeups are done prior to lineups being released, so make sure to check our Starting Lineups page to ensure the recommended options are playing.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Please note that the win/loss numbers listed below represent each team’s 2014-15 team record and do not currently account for overtime losses.

Montreal Canadiens at Toronto Maple Leafs – 07:00 PM EDT

Montreal Canadiens					Toronto Maple Leafs
			Carey Price					Jonathan Bernier
			Record					Record
			50-22					30-44
Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
Team Stats	2.61	2.24	16.50%	83.70%	Team Stats	2.51	3.13	15.90%	80.50%

The Maple Leafs are looking to bounce back from an abysmal 2014-15 season that saw them fire their coach mid-way through the season, and eventually free-fall down the stretch to firmly throw their hat into the Connor McDavid sweepstakes. While the draft lottery didn’t go their way, optimism is still in the air entering the 2015-16 season after they made a big splash bringing in former Detroit head coach Mike Babcock, and shaking the offensive core of the team by sending Phil Kessel to Pittsburgh. Only the Buffalo Sabres allowed more shots on goal per game than Toronto last season (33.5 SOG/game), but you can pretty much bank on the new regime, at the very least, stabilizing things on the defensive end. The loss of the Kessel’s dynamic offensive ability will likely have a ripple effect on the offensive end, but this should be an improved overall hockey product in Toronto this season.

Unfortunately for the Leafs, they’ll be tested right out of the gate by a Montreal team that once again figures to be in the running to hoist Lord Stanley’s Cup come early next summer. They’re back-boned by easily one of the top goalies in the league right now, Carey Price, who absolutely dominated this Toronto team in all four meetings last season. Offensively, the team has a well-rounded group of forwards, but it’s Max Pacioretty and Tomas Plekanec that offer the most upside by fantasy hockey standards. While the Habs did lose P.A. Parenteau to this Leafs team over the offseason, they brought in veteran Alexander Semin with hopes that he’d step into the scoring void left behind. On the blue line, both P.K. Subban and Andrei Markov are top tier options and see significant playing time with the man advantage and should be worth their lofty price-tags in the opener.

While I’m firmly of the mindset that Montreal will escape Toronto with two points in this one, I’m not expecting an offensive explosion here by any means. Toronto will be hyped to open the season in front of their home fans, and I expect them to be very focused on playing a defensively sound 60 minutes for their new coach. With that in mind, there’s not a ton to love from the Maple Leafs from a fantasy perspective; Tyler Bozak and James van Riemsdyk are the top offensive options, but much better suited for GPP play. Dion Phaneuf will make life less enjoyable for the Montreal forwards, but that top forward line is too talented to ignore. With Toronto posting an ugly 80.5 PK% last season, both Markov and Subban look like very nice options as the point-men of Montreal’s #1 power-play, and it’ll be dangerous to overlook Pacioretty and Plekanec in this one, as well.

Elite Plays

MON: Max Pacioretty, Carey Price, P.K. Subban
TOR: None

Secondary Plays

MON: Andrei Markov, Tomas Plekanec, Alex Galchenyuk, Brendan Gallagher
TOR: Tyler Bozak, James van Riemsdyk, Nazem Kadri, Joffrey Lupul, Morgan Rielly

New York Rangers at Chicago Blackhawks – 08:00 PM EDT

New York Rangers					Chicago Blackhawks
			Henrik Lundqvist					Corey Crawford
			Record					Record
			53-22					48-28
Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
Team Stats	3.02	2.28	16.80%	84.30%	Team Stats	2.68	2.27	17.60%	83.40%

In a battle pitting the two biggest favorites to take home the Stanley Cup by Vegas’ standards, the New York Rangers open their 2015-16 season against the defending champion Chicago Blackhawks at the United Center. The Rangers should be hungry this season after falling in the Stanley Cup Finals in 2014 and dropping a tightly-fought seven game series to the Tampa Bay Lightning in last season’s Eastern Conference Finals. Martin St. Louis is gone, but there’s simply no secret that the Rangers’ offense will still run directly through Rick Nash. Nash posted a career-high 42 goals last season, and is one of the league’s most dangerous snipers, but I’m not convinced he’s worth the investment in this matchup. With the Blackhawks utilizing the last line change in effort to slow him down, he’ll likely see a high dose of the very defensively stout Toews/Hossa line. Nash will be joined on the top line by the very talented Derek Stepan and Chris Kreider, but considering their very tough matchup, the secondary scoring options of both Mats Zuccarello and Derick Brassard should be in line for a bigger offensive role in this one. The Rangers may have the deepest defensive unit in the league, and it’s headlined by workhorse Ryan McDonagh and the offensive-minded Keith Yandle.

We’ve seen the Stanley Cup hangover several times in the recent past, and considering the off-ice distraction surrounding Patrick Kane, I’ll likely be treading carefully with my exposure to this Hawks team during the first few weeks of the season. Chicago was able to lock-up stud defenseman Brent Seabrook during the offseason, but that signing did come with some repercussions. Gone are a handful of key contributors from last season’s cup-winning squad, including Patrick Sharp, Brandon Saad, Brad Richards and Johnny Oduya. The talented Artem Anisimov was brought in to play alongside Patrick Kane, and considering the Toews/Hossa line may be on defensive duty, that line definitely has my attention.

This is “must see TV” for any hockey fan, and thanks to the short, four-game schedule on opening night, you’ll likely need to pick a side here. With the chess match centering on the top forward pairings, I’m definitely focusing more on the secondary scoring options from both squads. With two excellent goaltenders between the pipes, and both teams owning rather sub-par power-plays during the 2014-15 season, this game will likely be determined at 5 on 5, where I give a slight edge to the defending champs. There’s simply not a much tougher matchup in the NHL these days than visiting the United Center.

Elite Plays

NYR: None
CHI: Patrick Kane, Duncan Keith

Secondary Plays

NYR: Rick Nash, Derek Stepan, J.T. Miller, Mats Zuccarello, Derick Brassard, Keith Yandle
CHI: Jonathan Toews, Marian Hossa, Artem Anisimov, Brent Seabrook

Vancouver Canucks at Calgary Flames – 10:00 PM EDT

Vancouver Canucks					Calgary Flames
			Ryan Miller					Karri Ramo
			Record					Record
			48-29					45-30
Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
Team Stats	2.88	2.68	19.30%	85.70%	Team Stats	2.89	2.60	18.80%	80.60%

The nightcap is kicked off between two Canadian rivals that both pushed their way into the Western Conference playoffs last season and squared off in the opening round. With Calgary having bounced the Canucks in six games in that series, Vancouver has had over five months to think about retribution. While they’re undoubtedly on the downswing of their illustrious careers, a disproportionate amount of the Canucks’ offense still runs through the very dangerous top line of the Sedin brothers and Radim Vrbata. Don’t over think it, that’s where you’ll want to focus your attention for cash games. Sven Baertschi, who was a first round draft pick by the Flames and showed some offensive promise in his rather limited action, should see plenty of run on the Canucks’ second offensive pairing, and also their #2 power-play unit, making him an intriguing value play. Vancouver was excellent on the penalty kill last season, and also clicked at an above-average rate with the man advantage, so a tightly called game from the men in stripes would work in their favor here.

After exceeding expectations earlier than anticipated last season, there’s a lot of buzz about this Flames team among their fan base. Calgary has no shortage of young offensive talent and it’s all centered around Johnny Hockey (Johnny Gaudreau). After posting 64 points in 80 games and nearly taking home the Calder Trophy, another step forward would thrust Gaudreau’s name onto the list of the games’ elite fantasy contributors. While his top line is electric and most certainly in play tonight, the emergence of Sam Bennett as a legit scoring threat at the end of last season also gives the Flames a very capable second scoring line, and should relieve some of the offensive pressure from Gaudreau, Hudler and Monahan. On defense, Calgary looks loaded. They were strong last season with Mark Giordano, Kris Russell and Dennis Wideman, but bringing in Dougie Hamilton this offseason was a big move. All four players have an offensive upside that should not be ignored. Calgary proved to be the better team in last season’s Western Conference Quarterfinals, and with Vancouver simply another year older, there’s really no reason to expect things to be different this time around.

Elite Plays

VAN: Daniel Sedin
CGY: Johnny Gaudreau, Jiri Hudler, Sean Monahan, Mark Giordano, Dougie Hamilton

Secondary Plays

VAN: Henrik Sedin, Radim Vrbata, Sven Baertschi, Alexander Edler
CGY: Sam Bennett, Mikael Backlund, Kris Russell, Dennis Wideman

San Jose Sharks at Los Angeles Kings – 10:30 PM EDT

San Jose Sharks					Los Angeles Kings
			Martin Jones					Jonathan Quick
			Record					Record
			40-33					40-27
Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
Team Stats	2.73	2.76	21.60%	78.50%	Team Stats	2.66	2.40	19.00%	80.90%

Opening night includes an intriguing matchup between two long-time California rivals in the Western Conference. Games between these two teams were tightly contested, with Los Angeles ultimately walking away with a 3-2 season edge. Both of these teams were very disappointed in their 2014-15 seasons, and will be looking to prove that their long-time core players are still able to lead them into a deep Stanley Cup run, rather than simply descending into the swan song’s of their careers. The Sharks, with new coach Peter DeBoer behind the bench, are a bit of a mystery entering this season. They’re still anchored by long-time studs Joe Thornton, Joe Pavelski, Patrick Marleau and Logan Couture, but they desperately need some of their young talent to step up and produce alongside these veterans if they want to make if back into the playoffs this season. One intriguing story line to follow in this opener is Martin Jones likely making his debut between the pipes for the Sharks, against a team he spent his first two NHL seasons with. Jones, when given the chance to play behind Jonathan Quick, certainly looked very capable of being a #1 goalie. Also, monitor news on who emerges as the winner to join Joe Thornton and Joe Pavelski as the left-winger on the top scoring line, as that will create a nice value play (currently looking like it’ll be Joonas Donskoi).

As for the Kings, they not only failed to defend their 2014 Stanley Cup Championship last season, but they surprisingly found themselves out of the playoff picture all together. With that said, there’s really nothing substantially different about this team compared to their Cup winning season, and it’s much more likely that they’ll be back in cup contention this season rather than repeating their disappointing 2014-15 season. Despite the poor results, the Kings were the best team in the league by Corsi standards last season, and have been flat-out dominant over the last few years at the Staples Center (25-9-7 last year). They posses two very dangerous scoring lines and are anchored on the blue-line by workhorse defenseman Drew Doughty. Los Angeles brought in former Bruin Milan Lucic in to provide some muscle (and scoring potential) alongside Anze Kopitar and Marian Gaborik on the team’s top scoring line.

With the Sharks being a bit of a wildcard this season, and considering the Kings’ inspired play at the Pepsi Center, Los Angeles looks like the team to target in your cash games. Anze Kopitar represents a tough matchup for whichever of San Jose’s top two lines Coach Sutter decides to deploy him against and Jonathan Quick, while inconsistent at times last season, is still a top-tier NHL goalie. As for the Kings, there’s plenty to like here. With the Sharks posting an ugly 78.5 PK% last season (fifth-worst in the NHL), the top six forwards for the Kings have to be on your radar. Gaborik, Kopitar and Carter all tallied four points in the five meetings against San Jose last season, and are all but guaranteed a healthy dose of playing time with the man advantage. Lucic, Pearson and Toffoli are a bit more reasonably priced across the industry and locked into playing time alongside the “big three”. On defense, only Ryan Suter averaged more than Drew Doughty’s 29.00 mins/game last season, and Doughty is a tremendous scoring option on the blue-line as he quarterbacks the Kings’ #1 power-play unit. Jake Muzzin broke out with 41 points last season and looks to be thriving as Doughty’s protégé.

Elite Plays

SJ: Brent Burns
LOS: Anze Kopitar, Jeff Carter, Drew Doughty

Secondary Plays

SJ: Joe Pavelski, Patrick Marleau, Logan Couture, Joonas Donskoi, Joel Ward
LOS: Marian Gaborik, Tanner Pearson, Tyler Toffoli, Jake Muzzin, Jonathan Quick