10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful MLB Notes for August 14th
This MLB season, I’ll work to uncover some interesting bits of information that might shed some light on players from that day’s slate of MLB games. This is not a picks column, nor is it a “fun facts” article – it’s something in between.
I hope you enjoy it, and I hope it helps you think about today’s MLB plays in a new way as you build your DFS lineups. Here are 10 MLB notes for Monday, August 14th.
1. Since July 2nd, only six pitchers have a strikeout rate above 30.0% and a xFIP of 3.02 or better: Corey Kluber, Chris Sale, James Paxton, Rich Hill, Max Scherzer, and … Kevin Gausman. Despite getting BABIP’d to death by the Angels in his last start (.467 BABIP on a not terrible 31.3% hard hit rate), Gausman still managed to come away with six punchouts and a manageable four earned runs. On Monday, he’s an intriguing arm on a weak slate for pitching, as he gets a big positive park shift to pitcher-friendly SafeCo Field as a slight road favorite against the Mariners. Seattle represents a middle-of-the-road matchup for Gausman, ranking 18th in wOBA (.320), 21st in ISO (.163), and seventh in wRC+ (103). They fan at a 21.0% clip, which means the strikeouts should be there for Gausman.
2. Speaking of strikeouts, take a look at Gausman’s strikeout rate by month this year:
April – 13.6%
May – 16.2%
June – 20.8%
July – 31.0%
August – 28.6%
So what’s been the cause of his rapid rise in swings and misses? Beginning in late June, Gausman started relying much more heavily on a split-fingered fastball. Here’s a graph, courtesy of FanGraphs, that illustrates the correlation between Gausman’s split-fingered fastball usage and his strikeout rate:
If there’s still lingering doubts that Gausman is the pitcher getting lit up earlier in the year (and it was bad – he had a 5.85 first-half ERA!), the fact that Gausman has made a real change to his pitch repertoire indicates that the pitcher of the last couple months is who we can expect going forward.
3. Over the last 30 days, the Cincinnati Reds have a .198 batting average (ranks 30th in MLB), a .286 wOBA (28th), a 71 wRC+ (29th), and a 24.2% strikeout rate (sixth-highest in MLB) against left-handed pitching. While the club has been stronger over the course of the full season, they’ve really been scuffling against lefties as of late, including pedestrian guys like Adam Conley (7.2 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 7 SO on July 29th), Chris O’Grady (7 IP, 5 H, 0 ER, 5 SO on July 27th), and Patrick Corbin (7.1 IP, 7 H, 1 ER, 7 SO on July 20). Jose Quintana is a huge -200 favorite, the largest on the slate, in a home matchup against the Reds. Quintana brings a solid 3.98 SIERA and 25.4% strikeout rate into the matchup, and while he might be considered a fringe cash game option on a slate with better pitching options, he’s one of the best cash game plays on the board on Monday.
4. Jerad Eickhoff’s best pitch is his curveball, a pitch that has resulted in 209 strikeouts for Eickhoff since he debuted in 2015; only Corey Kluber (291 strikeouts) has gotten more from his curve during that span. Eickhoff’s curve is as effective as ever this year, yielding just a .218 wOBA from opposing batters. This is significant given his opponent on Monday, the San Diego Padres, have a team wOBA of .226 against right-handed curveballs, which ranks 29th in MLB. It also won’t hurt that Eickhoff, who has been excellent against righties throughout his career – he’s one of only 10 pitchers in MLB with a 24.7%+ K rate and a .268 wOBA or below to righties since 2015 – will likely face a righty-heavy lineup. On Sunday, the only lefties to crack the Padres’ lineup against right-hander Kenta Maeda were Cory Spangenburg and Yangervis Solarte. We can expect the same on Monday, and if Eickhoff is up against a predominantly right-handed lineup, he makes for an excellent cash game play.
5. Only two of the 12 starters the Astros have faced in the month of August (Chris Archer with 4 ER, Cesar Valdez with 6 ER) have allowed more than three earned runs, and this group includes guys like Andrew Cashner, Tyson Ross, Miguel Gonzalez, Derek Holland, and Austin Pruitt. These 12 starters have compiled a 3.51 ERA against the Astros this month. Now, is a 3.51 ERA elite? No. But it does go to show that rostering a starter against Houston shouldn’t be out of the question, particularly when that starter is someone like Zack Greinke, who has posted an elite 3.31 SIERA this year, fifth-best in MLB, and who is currently tying his career-high mark in strikeouts at 28.1%. While the Astros of 2017 suppress strikeouts better than any club in MLB – their 17.2% strikeout rate is actually 1.5 percentage points better than the second-place Red Sox – Sunday’s slate is extremely weak for pitching, which makes Greinke a super interesting tournament play. (And the fact that Andrew Cashner just looked competent against the Astros on Sunday isn’t hurting his case any).
6. Giancarlo Stanton has nine home runs since August 4th; that’s more than the Rays, Phillies, Indians, Braves, Giants, White Sox, and Rockies. Yesterday, he hit his 42nd of the season, tying Gary Sheffield’s Marlins franchise record, set in 1996. Stanton is making everything look easy right now, and it won’t get any harder on Monday against San Francisco lefty Ty Blach, who ranks 91st of 94 qualified starters with a minuscule 12.2% strikeout rate against right-handed batters. Stanton, for his part, has a low 17.1% strikeout rate against lefties this year (after posting rates of 28.2% and 31.3% in the previous two years). In other words, odds are Giancarlo Stanton is going to touch the ball with his bat on a few occasions on Monday, which automatically vaults him into top bat of the day territory, even on a slate with Coors Field.
7. Take a look at Aaron Judge’s barrels by month (and for those unfamiliar, a “barrel” is a Statcast term for a batted ball that is essentially the ideal combination of exit velocity and launch angle):
April – 14
May – 13
June – 16
July – 13
August – 2
Joe Mauer, Ozzie Albies, Nick Hundley … all players with more barrels than Judge in August. It’s still mid-August, and he could get hot at any time. Still, with three more strikeouts on Sunday night, extending his streak of games with at least one strikeout to 30, Judge isn’t doing much to show he’s busting out of this slump anytime soon. Even in what should be a winnable matchup against the Mets’ Rafael Montero, Judge looks like a stay-away until he starts resembling first-half Judge.
8. Which left-handed hitter has a better average than Bryce Harper (.310 to Harper’s .304), a better slugging percentage than Joey Votto (.594 to Votto’s .578), and a higher wOBA than Charlie Blackmon (.415 to .391) against right-handed pitching since 2015? Freddie Freeman. And what makes this even more impressive is that in 2015, and 2016, Freeman played half his games in Turner Field, which was a known pitcher’s park. In an amazing story, Rockies right-hander Chad Bettis is making his first start since being diagnosed with cancer in November of last year, and while Bettis has historically shown reverse splits (.371 career wOBA vs. RHB, .322 vs. LHB), with the platoon advantage at Coors Field, Freeman still has to be considered one of the top options of the day.
9. In his rookie season, Reds right-hander Asher Wojciechowski has relied heavily on his four-seam fastball, throwing it an astounding 68.5% of the time to left-handed batters. Since 2016, Cubs catcher Alex Avila has a .480 xwOBA against four-seam fastballs – that’s the best mark in MLB (min. 100 ABs) over that span. To illustrate how good that is – David Ortiz ranks second, with a .475 mark. Avila’s .319 ISO against that pitch isn’t bad either, tied for 23rd in MLB…with Mike Trout. While Avila’s $3,800 price tag at DraftKings makes him overpriced, he’s a steal at FanDuel at just $2,500.
10. The Matt Chapman Barrel Watch continues! If you’ve read this column before, you’ve seen Matt Chapman here before. But he barreled up another ball on Sunday (a home run with an exit velocity of 103.2 mph and a launch angle of 21 degrees), which gives him 12 barrels since the All-Star break; only Stanton, Nelson Cruz, Khris Davis, and Paul Goldshmidt have more. Chapman’s .367 ISO in the second half ranks second among third basemen behind only Joey Gallo (.449). And for whatever reason, this player is still priced at the minimum at DraftKings, $900 cheaper than he costs at FanDuel. Chapman continues to be the cheat code at third base that frees up salary for other positions, and while he does have some competition for the best bargain at third base on Monday (Ryan McMahon at just $2,300 is a fantastic play, as well), he’s still an excellent play against Kansas City’s Jake Junis (.363 wOBA, 5 HR in a small sample of 22 1/3 IP against RHB).
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Thanks for reading! Stats from this article were pulled from RotoGrinders’ Daily Research Console, FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, and Baseball Reference.
Check back for more “10 Notes” MLB articles throughout the year, and feel free to drop a comment below if you want to leave any feedback or keep the discussion going!
Follow Josh Cole on Twitter, where I post interesting stats whenever I dig them up!