10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful MLB Notes for June 29th
This MLB season, I’ll work to uncover some interesting bits of information that might shed some light on players from that day’s slate of MLB games. This is not a picks column, nor is it a “fun facts” article – it’s something in between.
I hope you enjoy it, and I hope it helps you think about today’s MLB plays in a new way as you build your DFS lineups. Here are 10 MLB notes for Thursday, June 29th.
1. Through five June starts, Corey Kluber has notched 52 strikeouts and allowed just five earned runs. He’s got a chance to become the third player in MLB history to start six games and record 10 times the amount of strikeouts as earned runs allowed over a single month (Ubaldo Jimenez in September of 2013 and Sam McDowell in June of 1965 are the others). Kluber’s been in vintage Cy Young form lately, and he’s the largest favorite on the board against a Rangers team that has already been stifled by Mike Clevinger and Trevor Bauer in this series. Texas has the fifth-highest strikeout rate in MLB against righties at 24.1%, and there’s a strong chance Kluber reaches double figures once again, as he’s done in four of his last five starts. He’s the clear top option on the early slate.
2. Since May 22nd, Brad Peacock has struck out eight or more batters in five of his six starts, joining CarMart, Scherzer, Kluber, Sale, and Kershaw with five games of 8+ punchouts during that stretch. As a team, Oakland strikes out at a 25.0% clip against right-handed pitching this year, but the catch (there’s always a catch) is that they also have a .196 ISO, which is fifth-best in MLB. There’s certainly risk involved, but apart from Kluber, there isn’t much to love in the way of pitching on the early slate. Peacock is a fantastic tournament play, and if you can stomach the risk, he’s in play as an SP2 alongside Kluber in cash games.
3. Trea Turner has been running wild on the Cubs, with five steals in the first three games of the series. In fact, he’s been running all wild all month, and last night, he became the first National/Expo since Marquis Grissom in 1991 to steal 20 bases in a single month. However, it may be time to abandon ship while Turner’s ownership will be at its peak. Consider this: of the 185 players with at least 50 at-bats against left-handed pitching this year, Trea Turner ranks dead last in xwOBA (which uses exit velocity and launch angle to filter out the “bad luck” from a player’s wOBA). Plus, with more base runners caught stealing (9) than steals allowed (8) this year, Jon Lester and Willson Contreras have done an excellent job controlling the running game.
4. Last season, Clayton Kershaw allowed left-handed batters to slug .159 against him (three doubles in 141 batters faced – that’s pretty good). It was the second-best slugging percentage allowed to lefties by a starter in MLB history (min. 40 IP), with only Chris Sale in 2013 posting a better number (.155). This year, Kershaw’s slugging has spiked to .542 against lefties, which, if Kershaw had the innings to qualify, would rank 94th in MLB, right behind Jordan Zimmermann and Matt Harvey and right in front of Jhoulys Chacin and Kyle Gibson. So, Kershaw has been getting hit unusually hard by lefties this year. But he’s got a few things working in his favor on Thursday. First, the Angels will almost certainly throw out a lineup of seven or eight right-handed batters. And second, the Angels, as a team, rank dead last in MLB with a .119 ISO against lefties this year. It’s a dicey main slate for pitching, and despite Kershaw’s looking weirdly human this year, he’s still the most predictable source of fantasy points on the slate.
5. Since May 15th, Chris Archer has a 4.76 ERA. Here are some of the mediocre (or worse) pitchers with better ERAs than Archer’s during that span: Adalberto Mejia, Scott Feldman, JC Ramirez, Nick Martinez, Clayton Richard, Andrew Cashner. Obviously, in DFS, we need to look beyond ERA, so consider this: Archer’s 45.0% hard hit rate during this span is the highest in MLB. But despite all of this, Archer is arguably the only pitcher with the same strikeout upside as Kershaw on the slate (depending on how you feel about Dinelson Lamet), and that’s the argument for using him in tournaments.
6. The San Diego Padres have allowed more than three earned runs to a lefty starter once this year, to Kyle Freeland April 12th…at Coors Field. Braves lefty Sean Newcomb diced them up on Tuesday night, fanning eight and holding them scoreless over six innings of work. Next up is southpaw Jaime Garcia, who had been having a strong season up until giving up six earned runs in each of his two starts. On a weak slate for pitching, Garcia has to be considered as an SP2 in cash games, if only because of the elite matchup.
7. Only one pitcher in MLB has allowed multi-homer games 10 times in his home park since the start of 2016: James Shields. One of those starts came in his last turn, in which he allowed three long balls to Oakland. This feels like a prime stacking opportunity, as the Yankees ranking in the top three in MLB in wOBA, ISO, and wRC+ against right-handed pitchers. Aaron Judge, Brett Gardner, Jacoby Ellsbury, Gary Sanchez, Didi Gregorius, and Chase Headley all have wOBAs above .340 against righties this year, and stacking multiple combinations of these hitters seems a smart strategy if you’re multi-entering, though they will be popular.
8. Time to play a bit of blind resume. Take a look at a few relevant numbers for the two player(s) below:
| Stat | Player A | Player B |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 62 | 62 |
| BA | .200 | .289 |
| OBP | .262 | .376 |
| SLG | .376 | .553 |
| HR | 8 | 18 |
| wRC+ | 61 | 127 |
Okay, clearly, Player B looks like the far superior player in every category. And he is. Player A is Travis Shaw, and Player B is…Travis Shaw. The first column represents Shaw’s final 62 games for the Red Sox, and the second column represents Shaw’s first 62 games as a member of the Brewers. It’s certainly odd to see Shaw listed as the most expensive third baseman at DraftKings and the second-most-expensive at FanDuel, but the change of scenery has done wonders for him. He’s homered in three straight, and he’s in an elite matchup against Homer Bailey at Great American Ball Park.
9. Only three players in MLB (min. 100 PA) have a 47.0% hard hit rate and a strikeout rate below 22.0% against righties: Corey Seager, Paul Goldschmidt, and … Justin Bour. Bour has really come around as a hitter this year, and on Thursday, he faces Seth Lugo, who has gotten extremely lucky against righties two years into his MLB career (.235 BABIP, 86.4 LOB%). With so many bigger names available at first base, Bour will almost certainly not be a popular option at first base, which makes him an excellent tournament play.
10. Only four players in MLB have a .280 ISO and strike out under 14.0% of the time against lefties: Nolan Arenado, Andrew McCutchen, Anthony Rizzo, and … Hunter Renfroe. As a fly ball hitter (47.5% fly ball rate vs. LHP this year, ranks 17th highest in MLB), he should be at an advantage against the ground ball tendencies of Jaime Garcia. He’s dirt cheap across the industry, and if you’re not using Garcia as an SP2, Renfroe provides some savings necessary to fit in Kershaw and a few high-end bats.
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Thanks for reading! Stats from this article were pulled from RotoGrinders’ Daily Research Console, FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, and Baseball Reference.
Check back for more “10 Notes” MLB articles throughout the year, and feel free to drop a comment below if you want to keep the discussion going!
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