10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful MLB Notes for June 9th
Every day while doing MLB DFS research, I inevitably end up in a statistical wormhole, where I’ll stumble across some unexpected bits of information that are possibly helpful, but at the very least, are interesting in one way or another. Here are 10 notes for Thursday, June 9, 2016.
1. Josh Tomlin owns a 2.8% walk rate in 2016, which is the second-best mark in MLB. He’s sandwiched between one perennial Cy Young contender (Clayton Kershaw, whose 1.8 BB% is the lowest in MLB) and one soon-to-be perennial Cy Young contender (Noah Syndergaard, whose 3.7 BB% ranks third). On a slate when the gas cans are flowing like wine (can Pepsi7’s Gas Can of the Night just be all the pitchers?), Tomlin just may be the safest option available, even against a Mariners team whose 86 home runs in 2016 is third-best in MLB.
2. A few more points in Tomlin’s favor: he’s a fly ball pitcher, which can spell doom in smaller parks, but in four career starts in pitcher-friendly SafeCo Field, he’s been elite. In 27.2 innings pitched, he’s struck out 27 and walked just three batters while allowing opposing hitters to slash just .160/.189/.270. Plus, if Seattle rolls out a lefty-heavy lineup (which they most likely will against the right-handed Tomlin), it should actually work in his favor: since 2015, Tomlin has dominated lefties to the tune of a .232 wOBA allowed. The only starters (minimum 50 IP) who have been better against lefties during that stretch are Clayton Kershaw (.216 wOBA allowed), Jake Arrieta (.218), Dallas Keuchel (.225), and Madison Bumgarner (.230).
3. One other option on Thursday is Jimmy Nelson. He joins Madison Bumgarner, Jerad Eickhoff, Zack Greinke, Clayton Kershaw, Jon Lester, and Martin Perez as the only pitchers in MLB to last at least six innings in seven home starts in 2016. In his career, he’s been a much better pitcher at home (3.76 ERA at home, 4.40 on the road), and that’s been amplified even more this year, with his home ERA (2.54) being less than half what it is on the road (5.13). With Mets beat writer Anthony DiComo reporting that Michael Conforto will sit out Thursday, and with Yoenis Cespedes slumping (wRC+ of 10 over the past two weeks, even after his three hits last night), the Mets lineup isn’t at full strength, meaning Nelson may be the lesser of 14 evils on Thursday’s seven-game main slate.
4. In 30.0 innings pitched at home in 2016, Nate Karns has allowed just seven extra-base hits. Only seven pitchers in MLB with 30.0 innings accrued at home have allowed fewer: Jake Arrieta (6 extra-base hits allowed at home) Clayton Kershaw (6), Tanner Roark (5), Kyle Hendricks (5), Jacob deGrom (5), Noah Syndergaard (3), and Jaime Garcia (3). Again, we’re scrounging for starting pitching on Thursday, and Karns, despite his seeming inability to pitch deep into the game (he’s pitched six innings or fewer in seven of his 11 starts this year), he’s in play.
5. If you’re playing the all-day or early slate on Thursday, you’re playing Andrew McCutchen. McCutchen and the Pirates visit Coors Field to make up the game that was postponed on April 28, and he’ll take on Chad Bettis, who, in his career, has allowed a .408 wOBA to righties at Coors. In his last game at Coors Field (April 26, 2016), McCutchen blasted three home runs for the second time in his career. His last triple-dong game was way back, when he hit three against the Nationals. Just to show how long ago that was – McCutchen was batting leadoff, and the player batting second for Pittsburgh was…Lastings Milledge.
6. The Baltimore Orioles have a .255 ISO and 26 home runs this year against ground ball pitchers, both of which rank first in MLB. On Thursday, they’ll square off against Marcus Stroman, whose MLB-high 59.8% ground ball rate might normally be an asset, but could spell trouble against the Orioles. Given Stroman’s ground ball rate and the fact that he does have some name recognition (or at least more name recognition than Tom Koehler or Miguel Gonzalez or Tyler Wilson), the Orioles could have lower-than-expected ownership. A few Orioles to target: Mark Trumbo (MLB-high .592 ISO, slash line of .327/.377/.918 in 53 PAs against ground ball pitchers in 2016), Matt Wieters (.277 ISO against ground ball pitchers since 2015, the best rate in MLB among catchers), Manny Machado (1.235 OPS at the Rogers Centre since 2015, highest rate in MLB), and (gulp) Pedro Alvarez (.260 career average vs. ground ball pitchers, compared to his .215 average against fly ball pitchers).
7. Matt Adams has 20 career home runs in ballparks not named Busch Stadium. Seven of those 20 homers have come in Great American Ballpark, including this 411-foot, three-run blast last night off of Alfredo Simon. Given the lefty/lefty matchup, Adams should go underowned in tournaments, which could be a mistake if he cracks the lineup, given that the Reds’ only bullpen lefty is their closer, Tony Cingrani. Adams has gotten on base safely in 19 straight games, by far the longest such streak of his career (previous high was 14).
8. Curtis Granderson has a .115 batting average on ground balls this year, less than half the league average mark of .232 on grounders. That number will rise, perhaps starting tonight, as Granderson will lead off against Jimmy Nelson, whose .357 wOBA against left-handed batters since 2015 is the seventh-worst mark in MLB (minimum 100 IP against LHB).
9. Franklin Gutierrez has a .394 ISO against fly ball pitchers since 2015, the best mark in MLB (minimum 100 PAs). His .343 average against fly ballers is second only to Mike Trout, who has hit .360 in that split since 2015. His 1.158 OPS is third, behind only Trout (1.174) and Bryce Harper (1.160). He’s typically someone to target against lefties, but given that Josh Tomlin has a slate-high 2.00 HR/9 to righties since 2015, Gutierrez is a sneaky tournament play on Thursday as most players will gravitate toward his teammate, Nelson Cruz.
10. Carlos Beltran has 16 home runs this season – the only players with more are Mark Trumbo (20), Todd Frazier (19), Nolan Arenado (18), and Adam Duvall (17). After homering again last night, Beltran has home runs in three consecutive games. If he’s able to homer off Jhoulys Chacin (not out of the question given Chacin’s slate-high 39.9% hard-contact rate vs. lefties since 2015), it’ll be the first time since April 2004 that Beltran has homered in four straight. For some perspective, on that day in 2004 (April 17), Craig Biggio and Jeff Bagwell both homered for the Astros, Curt Schilling outdueled Mike Mussina in a preview of Game 1 of that year’s famed ALCS, and the Philadelphia Phillies hosted the Montreal Expos.