Advanced Stats - Pitching: Friday, April 21st
The top two dogs did their job, but boldness was not required to advocate for Syndergaard and Strasburg last night. Our top pick (“our” because we share in failure, but success is all mine), Aaron Nola laid a bit of an egg. Perhaps it’s something I should have more attuned to the possibility of. Fly ball hitters often excel against ground ball pitchers and there are few offenses who generate more fly balls from the left-hand side than the Mets. In fact, Nola, Syndergaard and Martinez allowed more runs than any other night slate pitcher (the late game is still going on as I write this).
You’re going to pick arms that will fail quite frequently over the course of a long season, but who saw something like Wade Miley coming yesterday. We can take solace in the fact that other disregarded arms with low ERAs yesterday were more BABIP fortunate than anything else. We’ve got 15 more of these bad boys today, so settle in for the long ride tonight.
We’re now up to date on all stats except for team defense, which I’m confident we’ll see next week.
As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, ownership projections and Kevin’s weather report as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. And all of which are now available right here on the site.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB% L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Conley | MIA | 2.8 | 4.43 | 5.34 | 38.8% | 0.91 | 5.02 | 4.66 | SDG | 90 | 66 | 70 |
| Adam Wainwright | STL | -5.3 | 4.26 | 5.84 | 44.0% | 1.02 | 4.32 | 4.48 | MIL | 96 | 99 | 133 |
| Alex Cobb | TAM | -1.4 | 4.37 | 5. | 48.9% | 0.96 | 3.37 | 4.19 | HOU | 130 | 127 | 124 |
| Alex Meyer | ANA | 6.5 | 4.89 | 4.02 | 35.4% | 0.91 | 4.26 | TOR | 66 | 56 | 88 | |
| Alex Wood | LOS | 2.3 | 3.93 | 5.78 | 51.0% | 1.13 | 3.76 | 4.47 | ARI | 131 | 57 | 60 |
| Bartolo Colon | ATL | -0.9 | 4.24 | 5.94 | 42.1% | 0.96 | 4.82 | 4.29 | PHI | 117 | 96 | 79 |
| CC Sabathia | NYY | 0.8 | 4.32 | 5.87 | 47.1% | 0.97 | 4.61 | 4.56 | PIT | 94 | 51 | 92 |
| Cole Hamels | TEX | 1.9 | 3.74 | 6.45 | 48.4% | 1.11 | 4.12 | 5.09 | KAN | 68 | 51 | 72 |
| Corey Kluber | CLE | 5.4 | 3.29 | 6.77 | 42.6% | 0.98 | 3.43 | 3.71 | CHW | 102 | 69 | 57 |
| Drew Pomeranz | BOS | 4.1 | 3.74 | 5.44 | 44.7% | 1.02 | 3.82 | 2.18 | BAL | 81 | 81 | 107 |
| Dylan Bundy | BAL | -3.2 | 4.09 | 5.35 | 36.1% | 1.02 | 4.18 | 3.92 | BOS | 89 | 111 | 111 |
| Hector Santiago | MIN | -5.8 | 4.76 | 5.53 | 33.0% | 1.04 | 5.18 | 4.28 | DET | 100 | 116 | 97 |
| Hisashi Iwakuma | SEA | -4.3 | 4.09 | 6.15 | 44.1% | 0.93 | 4.62 | 5.82 | OAK | 125 | 121 | 131 |
| Jacob deGrom | NYM | 1.3 | 3.23 | 6.26 | 45.8% | 0.91 | 3.23 | 2.4 | WAS | 123 | 112 | 106 |
| Jeremy Hellickson | PHI | 1.9 | 4.16 | 5.66 | 40.6% | 0.96 | 3.7 | 5.66 | ATL | 93 | 95 | 98 |
| Johnny Cueto | SFO | 4.8 | 3.77 | 6.71 | 46.3% | 1.39 | 3.4 | 3.75 | COL | 56 | 57 | 58 |
| Jon Lester | CHC | 9.1 | 3.39 | 6.41 | 48.2% | 1.02 | 3.56 | 3.56 | CIN | 79 | 103 | 80 |
| Jose Quintana | CHW | 3.3 | 3.84 | 6.5 | 44.2% | 0.98 | 3.65 | 4.22 | CLE | 110 | 87 | 150 |
| Justin Verlander | DET | -5.1 | 3.61 | 6.63 | 33.9% | 1.04 | 3.83 | 4.57 | MIN | 99 | 97 | 86 |
| Mat Latos | TOR | 2.2 | 4.42 | 5.54 | 44.6% | 0.91 | 5.96 | ANA | 149 | 97 | 47 | |
| Mike Fiers | HOU | 4.2 | 4.09 | 5.65 | 40.4% | 0.96 | 4.6 | 4.37 | TAM | 137 | 113 | 138 |
| Nathan Karns | KAN | 4.9 | 4.04 | 5.48 | 41.7% | 1.11 | 4.28 | 4.32 | TEX | 85 | 92 | 30 |
| Sean Manaea | OAK | -8.3 | 3.97 | 5.78 | 45.8% | 0.93 | 4.17 | 3.37 | SEA | 61 | 58 | 132 |
| Taijuan Walker | ARI | -6.1 | 3.83 | 5.68 | 41.1% | 1.13 | 4.15 | 4.58 | LOS | 80 | 128 | 108 |
| Tanner Roark | WAS | 1.1 | 4.2 | 6.06 | 0.486 | 0.91 | 4.16 | 3.8 | NYM | 75 | 75 | 69 |
| Tim Adleman | CIN | 0.4 | 4.7 | 5.32 | 0.358 | 1.02 | 5.2 | 1.83 | CHC | 103 | 90 | 109 |
| Trevor Cahill | SDG | -5.9 | 3.59 | 5.22 | 0.594 | 0.91 | 4.21 | 2.91 | MIA | 99 | 107 | 107 |
| Tyler Chatwood | COL | -3.1 | 4.46 | 5.94 | 0.578 | 1.39 | 4.22 | 3.2 | SFO | 90 | 83 | 48 |
| Tyler Glasnow | PIT | -2.8 | 4.66 | 3.83 | 0.471 | 0.97 | 6.13 | 5.26 | NYY | 114 | 135 | 143 |
| Wily Peralta | MIL | -7.2 | 4.59 | 5.48 | 0.512 | 1.02 | 4.08 | 5.39 | STL | 87 | 83 | 81 |
Alex Wood has been used interestingly this season. Three appearances for nine innings with just one start, which was not successful against the Cubs (five walks). It’s too small a sample of in short spurts to over-analyze, but I’m now wondering if he’s going to be another one of these one-time through the order guys, although one who both starts AND occasionally comes out of the bullpen. If that’s the case, he’s off the table, but I don’t necessarily know that and am assuming that’s not the case due to Rich Hill going back on the DL. Arizona has been bad against LHP, including last night, but they shouldn’t be. Like their opponent last night, he keeps the ball on the ground, which should make him a bit less susceptible to the horrors of Chase Field.
CC Sabathia is difficult to decipher. He has sustained an ability to generate weak contact, which started last year, even though his line drive rate (29.6%) is higher than his hard hit rate (27.3%). His 85.6 mph aEV is one of the lowest on the board with very few barrels being met. His walk rate has been a bit too high and his strikeout rate is down, but we can be encouraged by his double digit SwStr% and 81 Z-Contact%. He also transitions to a great park for a LHP, where he won’t face a DH. It’s true that Pittsburgh is a patience team, who bats predominantly from the RH side, but they’ve started slow against LHP (25 K%) and just lost a key RH bat from the top of their lineup.
Drew Pomeranz looked good in his first start, got hit hard in his second one, but did whiff half of the 10 batters he faced with half the remaining ones scoring (two HRs). While he started with better velocity in his first start, that may have been adrenaline because he failed to hold it. He was back to previous levels in his last start and did hold around 92 mph. He faces a Baltimore offense that has struggled with LHP for unknown reasons over the last few seasons and have a 22.9 K-BB% against them so far this year.
Jacob deGrom made a mistake to Christian Yelich last time out. Marcell Ozuna then pummeled what wasn’t really that bad pitch. He proceeded to finish the night tying a career high with 13 strikeouts. After struggling to hold his velocity in his first start, he not only did so in his last one, but even increased it from 95 to 96 later in the game. His 14.9 SwStr% is sixth in baseball and second on the board with more than 20 of those swings and misses coming last time out. While the Nationals have come out of the gate well and certainly represent a step up in competition, this is an elite pitcher when healthy and Washington faced a knuckleball last night. There’s a theory that has been looking into and shown some merit, that an offense suffers a bit of a penalty the day after seeing a knuckler.
Johnny Cueto finds the most difficult park transition possible tonight, from San Francisco to Colorado. While he’s been decent rather than great so far, allowing too much hard contact, most of that was in his first start (62.5 Hard%) and he’s had a double digit SwStr% in all three starts. The last part of this is that Colorado has stunk.
Jon Lester has stranded 90% of his runners without allowing a HR yet through three starts. He’s also experienced nearly a two point drop in SwStr% from the previous three seasons despite not suffering any loss in his strikeout rate. Everything else seems about consistent with what he normally is. The Reds were just shut down by Ubaldo Jimenez and Wade Miley.
Justin Verlander has essentially pitched to the quality of opponent. After dominating the White Sox, he had decent results with a lower strikeout rate against the Red Sox, before being pummeled by Cleveland. Three HRs. It’s going to happen. He allowed 30 last year. A slate high 11.5% of batted balls are meeting barrels. That’s not good, but he just faced two of the toughest offenses in the American League. Minnesota hasn’t been terrible, but that’s mostly come through walks. They’re striking out at an average rate and not showing much power.
Sean Manaea was tossing a no-hitter through five innings last time out. He walked three to load the bases and then was lifted after an error, five walks in all. He has the third best SwStr% in the majors thus far and really didn’t have a walk problem in his first two starts. He has somehow managed to strand just 45.9% of runners on a .189 BABIP. Aside from the elite strikeout stuff, he’s kept batted balls on the ground 63.2% of the time, which has allowed him to have a low barrel rate with a high aEV. Seattle has some odd numbers in limited opportunities against LHP. They have power, but could be vulnerable to LHP in negative run scoring environments.
Tanner Roark is, at best, a weak contact generator, who doesn’t miss many bats, though he has nearly a league average SwStr% through three starts this year. He’s increased his GB rate above 50%, while walking just two batters thus far, both things that can only help his particular skill set. The Mets offense is suddenly very banged up, minus Cespedes and Duda, and hadn’t been performing up to standard yet anyway.
Trevor Cahill is not a different pitcher at all from looking at his ERA. He’s allowing lots of runs and walks, while keeping the ball on the ground and allowing too much hard contact. This all sounds like Trevor Cahill, but something else is also going on. Through two starts, he’s missing bats like Max Scherzer. He’s not throwing any harder, but he is throwing fewer sinkers and more four-seamers and knuckle-curves. He picked the pitch up two years ago with the Cubs and started throwing it more out of the bullpen last year. Brooks calls it just a curve, but he went from 7.69% whiffs on the pitch to 29.79% so far this year. It grades out strongly on Fangraphs so far, so maybe it’s a good pitch that could transform his career. Say what you will about San Diego, but look what guys like Pomeranz and Richard have done there in recent seasons. Stranger things have happened.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.298 BABIP – 72.3 LOB% – 13.3 HR/FB)
Dylan Bundy (.308 – 79% – 0) is someone I like very much going forward, though not as much as his current ERA. I’ve guessed poorly on him in two of his three starts so far, why stop now? The poor one was against the Red Sox though and this is more a matter of their total disdain for striking out (16.7% vs RHP), while continuing to make a lot of hard contact (40.9%). There are worse SP2 considerations for less than $7K on DraftKings though.
Cole Hamels (.235 – 76.9% – 16.7) is still walking batters (9.3%) and giving up bombs (three), but is no longer missing bats (6.3%). He still nearly makes the cut because the Kansas City offense rates so poorly vs LHP. DRA loved him last year and continues to do so. I don’t understand it, but they don’t seem to penalize walks as much as other estimators.
Jeremy Hellickson (_.182 – 88.2% – _3.8) is not missing bats and allowing too much hard contact.
Wily Peralta (.227 – 80.7% – 6.7) garnered some interest in the way he closed last season, throwing harder and missing more bats. While he’s retained the velocity, he has not retained the SwStr rate and is even walking more batters. Gains in ERA appear to be very artificial unfortunately.
Adam Conley (.156 – 76.1% – 12.5) has succeeded more so through BABIP than anything else through his first 12 innings despite some hard contact. The swing and miss stuff is just average and comes with control issues. It’s a nice spot in San Diego, but the Padres may have some sneaky RH power (Myers, Renfroe). With mediocre upside and a moderate amount of risk, this is not an arm I’m comfortable paying too much for right now. I’m wavering a bit about his potential for an SP2 at $7K on DraftKings, but don’t really see the necessity considering other arms in his price range.
Hector Santiago (.222 – 90.6% – 4.2) is still generating all the hard contact. All of it.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Tyler Chatwood seems to have improved his skill set to a point where he might be considered even at Coors at his current price for future outings. It’s not even completely out of the question today, although San Francisco’s low strikeout rate makes it a bit more difficult.
Corey Kluber did strike out a season high eight batters (15.0 SwSt%) last time out (Tigers), the first time in which he pitched into the seventh inning with a bump back up in velocity. Last year, he was a virtual lock for seven innings and a quality start each time out, but has continued to get hit hard (at least 40% each time out) with some of the highest Statcast contact numbers across the board. The White Sox are a poor offense with a 19.0 K-BB% vs RHP, but the confidence just isn’t there to pay up for him on a full slate right now. It would at least be nice to see another start with sustained velocity matching last season and more missed bats.
Taijuan Walker is off to a respectable start in a new uniform, but faces an offense that punishes RH pitching in a dangerous park. Strangely, it’s the offense he’s had his best start against so far, but that doesn’t mean it should be our expectation again with a significant environmental downgrade.
Nathan Karns may eventually be a pitcher or interest in Kansas City, though his skill set is less suited to this Texas park.
Bartolo Colon located immaculately against the Padres, as he is known to do. The Phillies may not be any better, but you still need more bat missing confidence in your pitching selections.
Mike Fiers is missing bats at a more than acceptable rate, but not putting batters away. He’s also allowed three HRs in two starts. The Rays have a 26.5 K% against RHP, so there’s some merit here, but they’ve otherwise been scolding baseballs and a very potent offense this month.
Adam Wainwright may garner some support due to a low price tag against a highly strikeout prone offense, but he appears headed down a dark path which I just can’t follow and we all saw that approach not work out too well for Carlos Martinez backers.
Alex Cobb has lost his changeup and without that he doesn’t have much, as the massive amounts of hard contact this year have shown. He didn’t strike out a single Boston batter in his last outing and now faces a hot Houston offense, who apparently don’t strike out anymore either.
Jose Quintana should have been traded before the season perhaps. These problems really started last year, but were well hidden.
Tyler Glasnow had a second start that was remarkably better than his first, but the results seemed to get in the way. He generated swings and misses, along with weak contact, while only walking two. He has significant talent in that arm, but has had enormous walk rates throughout his professional career, a trait that could get him in significant trouble against a Yankee lineup currently punishing baseballs. While the downgrade for RH power is significant, is there actually a park that can hold Aaron Judge? Walks will get you in trouble in any park and drive up a pitch count.
Alex Meyer vs Mat Latos may be the least intriguing pitching matchup of the young season thus far. They are the only two pitchers making season debuts today. Perhaps that’s intriguing, but I doubt it.
K/BB Chart
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Conley | Marlins | L2 Years | 21.0% | 9.6% | Road | 21.9% | 10.9% | L14 Days | 18.8% | 10.4% |
| Adam Wainwright | Cardinals | L2 Years | 19.1% | 7.0% | Road | 17.8% | 7.4% | L14 Days | 14.6% | 8.3% |
| Alex Cobb | Rays | L2 Years | 15.0% | 5.6% | Home | 23.2% | 5.4% | L14 Days | 13.0% | 3.7% |
| Alex Meyer | Angels | L2 Years | 24.2% | 15.2% | Home | 24.6% | 10.8% | L14 Days | ||
| Alex Wood | Dodgers | L2 Years | 19.9% | 7.6% | Road | 25.4% | 10.4% | L14 Days | 22.6% | 16.1% |
| Bartolo Colon | Braves | L2 Years | 16.3% | 3.7% | Road | 12.3% | 4.2% | L14 Days | 19.1% | 7.1% |
| CC Sabathia | Yankees | L2 Years | 18.8% | 8.0% | Road | 18.4% | 10.2% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 9.3% |
| Cole Hamels | Rangers | L2 Years | 23.6% | 7.9% | Home | 22.9% | 8.9% | L14 Days | 13.7% | 11.8% |
| Corey Kluber | Indians | L2 Years | 26.7% | 6.0% | Road | 25.9% | 6.3% | L14 Days | 22.2% | 5.6% |
| Drew Pomeranz | Red Sox | L2 Years | 25.8% | 9.3% | Road | 26.3% | 9.7% | L14 Days | 37.2% | 7.0% |
| Dylan Bundy | Orioles | L2 Years | 22.2% | 8.2% | Home | 22.5% | 6.3% | L14 Days | 19.2% | 6.4% |
| Hector Santiago | Twins | L2 Years | 19.5% | 9.5% | Home | 19.5% | 9.1% | L14 Days | 13.5% | 1.9% |
| Hisashi Iwakuma | Mariners | L2 Years | 18.8% | 5.1% | Road | 15.4% | 7.8% | L14 Days | 10.3% | 7.7% |
| Jacob deGrom | Mets | L2 Years | 26.2% | 5.6% | Home | 29.0% | 7.3% | L14 Days | 31.4% | 5.9% |
| Jeremy Hellickson | Phillies | L2 Years | 19.4% | 6.1% | Home | 22.3% | 5.0% | L14 Days | 9.3% | 4.7% |
| Johnny Cueto | Giants | L2 Years | 21.1% | 5.4% | Road | 24.1% | 6.6% | L14 Days | 22.8% | 7.0% |
| Jon Lester | Cubs | L2 Years | 25.1% | 6.2% | Road | 24.4% | 6.9% | L14 Days | 21.7% | 6.5% |
| Jose Quintana | White Sox | L2 Years | 21.2% | 5.8% | Home | 23.1% | 4.3% | L14 Days | 21.8% | 10.9% |
| Justin Verlander | Tigers | L2 Years | 25.4% | 6.2% | Road | 26.1% | 6.9% | L14 Days | 16.0% | 6.0% |
| Mat Latos | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 17.5% | 7.4% | Road | 11.4% | 9.2% | L14 Days | ||
| Mike Fiers | Astros | L2 Years | 20.9% | 7.3% | Road | 16.9% | 6.3% | L14 Days | 17.4% | 8.7% |
| Nathan Karns | Royals | L2 Years | 23.3% | 9.5% | Road | 25.2% | 12.4% | L14 Days | 13.0% | 8.7% |
| Sean Manaea | Athletics | L2 Years | 21.7% | 6.9% | Home | 21.3% | 8.2% | L14 Days | 34.8% | 15.2% |
| Taijuan Walker | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 21.9% | 5.9% | Home | 21.6% | 6.9% | L14 Days | 19.6% | 10.9% |
| Tanner Roark | Nationals | L2 Years | 18.5% | 7.3% | Road | 18.2% | 7.9% | L14 Days | 12.2% | 0.0% |
| Tim Adleman | Reds | L2 Years | 17.3% | 6.6% | Home | 18.9% | 8.2% | L14 Days | 35.7% | 0.0% |
| Trevor Cahill | Padres | L2 Years | 22.8% | 10.7% | Home | 24.0% | 14.7% | L14 Days | 34.8% | 13.0% |
| Tyler Chatwood | Rockies | L2 Years | 17.8% | 10.1% | Home | 16.8% | 9.9% | L14 Days | 20.4% | 7.4% |
| Tyler Glasnow | Pirates | L2 Years | 22.1% | 13.8% | Home | 17.5% | 15.9% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 17.5% |
| Wily Peralta | Brewers | L2 Years | 15.6% | 8.3% | Home | 19.0% | 8.0% | L14 Days | 16.3% | 14.3% |
K/BB Chart – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Padres | Home | 20.0% | 8.3% | LH | 23.5% | 8.7% | L7Days | 24.7% | 6.8% |
| Brewers | Home | 31.7% | 9.0% | RH | 25.8% | 8.9% | L7Days | 25.0% | 10.7% |
| Astros | Road | 17.1% | 11.4% | RH | 18.7% | 8.2% | L7Days | 18.8% | 8.7% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 21.4% | 9.4% | RH | 23.6% | 6.9% | L7Days | 28.4% | 4.5% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 23.1% | 7.8% | LH | 24.5% | 4.6% | L7Days | 27.4% | 8.5% |
| Phillies | Home | 20.9% | 9.6% | RH | 24.8% | 8.0% | L7Days | 24.7% | 6.0% |
| Pirates | Home | 17.5% | 9.6% | LH | 25.0% | 9.0% | L7Days | 15.5% | 6.4% |
| Royals | Road | 24.4% | 8.1% | LH | 25.0% | 9.0% | L7Days | 23.3% | 8.1% |
| White Sox | Home | 20.9% | 9.6% | RH | 24.7% | 5.7% | L7Days | 21.7% | 4.3% |
| Orioles | Home | 21.5% | 6.2% | LH | 27.7% | 4.8% | L7Days | 24.7% | 6.2% |
| Red Sox | Road | 18.7% | 8.6% | RH | 16.7% | 7.6% | L7Days | 17.5% | 7.5% |
| Tigers | Road | 24.2% | 10.8% | LH | 19.8% | 7.2% | L7Days | 26.1% | 9.0% |
| Athletics | Home | 24.9% | 8.7% | RH | 23.3% | 9.1% | L7Days | 25.9% | 8.3% |
| Nationals | Road | 21.2% | 10.6% | RH | 19.2% | 9.0% | L7Days | 14.6% | 8.6% |
| Braves | Road | 21.3% | 6.4% | RH | 21.7% | 7.9% | L7Days | 20.4% | 8.4% |
| Rockies | Home | 25.0% | 6.9% | RH | 22.6% | 8.9% | L7Days | 26.7% | 4.4% |
| Reds | Home | 20.3% | 7.0% | LH | 21.7% | 5.8% | L7Days | 21.0% | 9.1% |
| Indians | Road | 16.7% | 9.1% | LH | 16.3% | 12.6% | L7Days | 17.1% | 9.5% |
| Twins | Home | 21.5% | 13.2% | RH | 21.4% | 11.4% | L7Days | 21.7% | 10.0% |
| Angels | Home | 19.7% | 8.3% | RH | 22.6% | 7.8% | L7Days | 26.6% | 7.8% |
| Rays | Home | 23.3% | 11.0% | RH | 26.5% | 8.2% | L7Days | 26.2% | 9.2% |
| Rangers | Home | 25.1% | 8.4% | RH | 20.7% | 8.0% | L7Days | 19.9% | 8.2% |
| Mariners | Road | 23.2% | 8.4% | LH | 12.7% | 11.8% | L7Days | 18.7% | 11.7% |
| Dodgers | Road | 24.3% | 10.6% | RH | 21.4% | 11.8% | L7Days | 21.5% | 9.6% |
| Mets | Home | 20.5% | 9.4% | RH | 22.6% | 10.2% | L7Days | 19.5% | 11.8% |
| Cubs | Road | 22.0% | 9.6% | RH | 24.7% | 8.9% | L7Days | 23.1% | 8.1% |
| Marlins | Road | 21.3% | 6.0% | RH | 22.6% | 6.1% | L7Days | 22.2% | 4.2% |
| Giants | Road | 22.2% | 7.8% | RH | 18.4% | 7.1% | L7Days | 20.3% | 4.0% |
| Yankees | Road | 18.9% | 11.3% | RH | 20.4% | 10.5% | L7Days | 24.5% | 12.0% |
| Cardinals | Road | 24.1% | 6.4% | RH | 22.7% | 9.0% | L7Days | 23.2% | 6.6% |
Batted Ball Chart
Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Conley | Marlins | L2 Years | 28.5% | 8.8% | 7.9% | 2017 | 35.3% | 12.5% | 20.6% | Road | 29.8% | 10.9% | 13.0% | L14 Days | 35.3% | 12.5% | 20.6% |
| Adam Wainwright | Cardinals | L2 Years | 31.6% | 11.7% | 12.8% | 2017 | 38.0% | 13.3% | 24.0% | Road | 32.4% | 18.9% | 16.1% | L14 Days | 43.2% | 22.2% | 37.8% |
| Alex Cobb | Rays | L2 Years | 37.8% | 20.5% | 23.1% | 2017 | 48.4% | 19.0% | 37.1% | Home | 45.0% | 15.4% | 30.0% | L14 Days | 48.9% | 23.1% | 37.8% |
| Alex Meyer | Angels | L2 Years | 38.8% | 13.2% | 22.5% | 2017 | Home | 42.9% | 12.5% | 26.2% | L14 Days | ||||||
| Alex Wood | Dodgers | L2 Years | 27.7% | 9.9% | 11.5% | 2017 | 20.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | Road | 30.6% | 9.7% | 10.2% | L14 Days | 21.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Bartolo Colon | Braves | L2 Years | 32.4% | 10.9% | 15.1% | 2017 | 40.0% | 11.5% | 13.3% | Road | 37.8% | 10.9% | 24.1% | L14 Days | 41.9% | 13.3% | 16.1% |
| CC Sabathia | Yankees | L2 Years | 27.3% | 14.3% | 7.1% | 2017 | 27.3% | 7.1% | 3.7% | Road | 24.8% | 9.2% | 0.6% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 10.0% | 20.5% |
| Cole Hamels | Rangers | L2 Years | 29.5% | 11.9% | 9.4% | 2017 | 27.8% | 16.7% | 13.0% | Home | 33.1% | 16.1% | 13.7% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 18.2% | 8.3% |
| Corey Kluber | Indians | L2 Years | 28.0% | 11.5% | 9.1% | 2017 | 50.0% | 20.8% | 37.5% | Road | 30.3% | 11.4% | 13.2% | L14 Days | 48.7% | 11.1% | 33.3% |
| Drew Pomeranz | Red Sox | L2 Years | 29.1% | 12.7% | 8.4% | 2017 | 29.2% | 20.0% | 8.4% | Road | 29.8% | 10.0% | 10.4% | L14 Days | 29.2% | 20.0% | 8.4% |
| Dylan Bundy | Orioles | L2 Years | 27.3% | 11.8% | 3.0% | 2017 | 23.1% | 0.0% | -5.8% | Home | 26.9% | 11.3% | 1.0% | L14 Days | 22.9% | 0.0% | -5.7% |
| Hector Santiago | Twins | L2 Years | 35.7% | 10.9% | 19.6% | 2017 | 41.8% | 4.2% | 32.7% | Home | 39.9% | 13.8% | 23.3% | L14 Days | 47.6% | 5.6% | 38.1% |
| Hisashi Iwakuma | Mariners | L2 Years | 30.7% | 12.9% | 13.7% | 2017 | 31.3% | 19.0% | 4.2% | Road | 29.1% | 12.9% | 12.3% | L14 Days | 35.5% | 12.5% | 12.9% |
| Jacob deGrom | Mets | L2 Years | 28.3% | 11.0% | 8.4% | 2017 | 19.6% | 15.4% | -10.8% | Home | 26.6% | 10.8% | 4.6% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 20.0% | -6.3% |
| Jeremy Hellickson | Phillies | L2 Years | 29.7% | 12.6% | 11.2% | 2017 | 35.7% | 3.8% | 23.2% | Home | 23.2% | 12.1% | 0.6% | L14 Days | 40.5% | 5.0% | 27.0% |
| Johnny Cueto | Giants | L2 Years | 28.6% | 9.4% | 8.7% | 2017 | 38.2% | 13.6% | 21.8% | Road | 31.3% | 15.3% | 11.4% | L14 Days | 28.2% | 5.9% | 5.1% |
| Jon Lester | Cubs | L2 Years | 28.3% | 10.6% | 8.2% | 2017 | 29.8% | 0.0% | 17.0% | Road | 26.5% | 12.9% | 7.7% | L14 Days | 21.9% | 0.0% | 9.4% |
| Jose Quintana | White Sox | L2 Years | 30.8% | 9.3% | 13.2% | 2017 | 35.7% | 16.0% | 23.2% | Home | 35.9% | 15.2% | 19.9% | L14 Days | 35.1% | 6.7% | 21.6% |
| Justin Verlander | Tigers | L2 Years | 27.3% | 9.7% | 8.5% | 2017 | 39.6% | 13.0% | 32.0% | Road | 27.4% | 10.7% | 8.8% | L14 Days | 43.6% | 16.7% | 38.5% |
| Mat Latos | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 31.1% | 12.3% | 10.0% | 2017 | Road | 29.7% | 8.5% | 6.3% | L14 Days | ||||||
| Mike Fiers | Astros | L2 Years | 33.7% | 13.7% | 15.2% | 2017 | 27.3% | 27.3% | 9.1% | Road | 33.8% | 17.6% | 17.8% | L14 Days | 27.3% | 27.3% | 9.1% |
| Nathan Karns | Royals | L2 Years | 32.3% | 11.8% | 13.4% | 2017 | 24.3% | 10.0% | 2.7% | Road | 36.9% | 13.2% | 19.4% | L14 Days | 22.9% | 11.1% | 0.0% |
| Sean Manaea | Athletics | L2 Years | 33.8% | 13.5% | 15.4% | 2017 | 36.8% | 11.1% | 18.4% | Home | 33.1% | 9.8% | 15.6% | L14 Days | 40.0% | 16.7% | 20.0% |
| Taijuan Walker | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 29.5% | 14.6% | 10.9% | 2017 | 34.7% | 5.0% | 18.4% | Home | 29.2% | 16.2% | 8.6% | L14 Days | 25.8% | 0.0% | 6.4% |
| Tanner Roark | Nationals | L2 Years | 25.2% | 11.0% | 2.7% | 2017 | 28.1% | 0.0% | 8.8% | Road | 23.1% | 12.0% | -1.4% | L14 Days | 27.9% | 0.0% | 9.3% |
| Tim Adleman | Reds | L2 Years | 35.3% | 13.9% | 21.9% | 2017 | 33.3% | 16.7% | 33.3% | Home | 34.5% | 16.7% | 20.3% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 16.7% | 33.3% |
| Trevor Cahill | Padres | L2 Years | 31.3% | 18.2% | 10.0% | 2017 | 44.4% | 14.3% | 25.9% | Home | 16.9% | 15.8% | -3.9% | L14 Days | 50.0% | 0.0% | 25.0% |
| Tyler Chatwood | Rockies | L2 Years | 29.4% | 14.3% | 9.6% | 2017 | 28.6% | 33.3% | 1.8% | Home | 34.3% | 22.4% | 19.9% | L14 Days | 25.6% | 25.0% | 2.5% |
| Tyler Glasnow | Pirates | L2 Years | 24.7% | 12.0% | 2.2% | 2017 | 16.7% | 20.0% | -8.3% | Home | 12.5% | 0.0% | -10.0% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 20.0% | -8.3% |
| Wily Peralta | Brewers | L2 Years | 32.7% | 15.4% | 14.7% | 2017 | 31.1% | 6.7% | 11.1% | Home | 37.0% | 18.6% | 20.6% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 7.7% | 15.1% |
Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Padres | Home | 23.5% | 14.0% | 0.0% | LH | 26.8% | 10.4% | 3.2% | L7Days | 26.0% | 16.3% | 2.6% |
| Brewers | Home | 40.2% | 24.1% | 18.9% | RH | 32.6% | 22.9% | 12.5% | L7Days | 33.0% | 28.3% | 11.6% |
| Astros | Road | 28.6% | 6.8% | 8.2% | RH | 31.2% | 15.3% | 10.0% | L7Days | 34.6% | 13.7% | 18.3% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 32.3% | 6.9% | 13.0% | RH | 31.4% | 6.0% | 10.3% | L7Days | 32.0% | 13.5% | 11.6% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 38.6% | 13.1% | 26.6% | LH | 33.3% | 6.4% | 18.1% | L7Days | 25.3% | 9.3% | 6.6% |
| Phillies | Home | 25.0% | 13.5% | 3.1% | RH | 27.9% | 14.0% | 5.4% | L7Days | 30.4% | 10.4% | 4.4% |
| Pirates | Home | 27.2% | 8.2% | 3.7% | LH | 27.7% | 8.6% | 6.9% | L7Days | 24.6% | 11.3% | 3.0% |
| Royals | Road | 27.2% | 18.2% | 1.6% | LH | 21.5% | 8.7% | -4.3% | L7Days | 27.0% | 9.1% | 5.3% |
| White Sox | Home | 32.5% | 9.8% | 12.7% | RH | 24.7% | 11.6% | 7.6% | L7Days | 21.2% | 9.6% | 4.0% |
| Orioles | Home | 25.4% | 10.6% | 7.9% | LH | 35.4% | 12.5% | 19.6% | L7Days | 36.5% | 17.5% | 14.1% |
| Red Sox | Road | 41.9% | 2.9% | 25.7% | RH | 40.9% | 4.7% | 23.2% | L7Days | 37.5% | 5.3% | 21.0% |
| Tigers | Road | 37.2% | 14.5% | 20.4% | LH | 44.3% | 18.4% | 34.2% | L7Days | 39.2% | 13.6% | 20.3% |
| Athletics | Home | 30.0% | 16.9% | 12.3% | RH | 36.3% | 16.7% | 18.1% | L7Days | 29.6% | 17.6% | 14.1% |
| Nationals | Road | 29.2% | 13.1% | 13.7% | RH | 28.9% | 12.2% | 11.3% | L7Days | 27.5% | 10.3% | 8.4% |
| Braves | Road | 28.5% | 12.3% | 11.3% | RH | 30.6% | 11.7% | 14.1% | L7Days | 30.9% | 15.9% | 13.5% |
| Rockies | Home | 28.1% | 16.9% | 8.7% | RH | 27.6% | 10.3% | 4.1% | L7Days | 34.2% | 12.5% | 11.4% |
| Reds | Home | 29.5% | 12.1% | 9.8% | LH | 32.2% | 26.5% | 10.4% | L7Days | 29.3% | 13.7% | 5.3% |
| Indians | Road | 40.1% | 9.2% | 24.1% | LH | 39.4% | 7.0% | 24.2% | L7Days | 36.1% | 12.1% | 15.5% |
| Twins | Home | 31.3% | 4.6% | 11.5% | RH | 34.9% | 7.9% | 17.8% | L7Days | 30.8% | 3.8% | 9.6% |
| Angels | Home | 28.7% | 19.6% | 9.8% | RH | 28.2% | 14.0% | 7.5% | L7Days | 30.1% | 6.7% | 6.4% |
| Rays | Home | 33.5% | 13.8% | 12.6% | RH | 33.5% | 16.3% | 14.8% | L7Days | 39.3% | 15.2% | 20.2% |
| Rangers | Home | 34.5% | 17.7% | 16.4% | RH | 31.7% | 13.6% | 12.9% | L7Days | 23.1% | 4.1% | 0.0% |
| Mariners | Road | 21.8% | 8.5% | 0.9% | LH | 22.5% | 6.9% | -1.3% | L7Days | 31.4% | 12.5% | 12.0% |
| Dodgers | Road | 28.3% | 6.3% | 6.9% | RH | 34.9% | 13.5% | 17.7% | L7Days | 31.4% | 9.8% | 17.7% |
| Mets | Home | 27.3% | 9.2% | 8.2% | RH | 28.8% | 10.3% | 10.9% | L7Days | 29.0% | 7.1% | 7.9% |
| Cubs | Road | 28.9% | 7.5% | 6.6% | RH | 27.6% | 7.8% | 10.2% | L7Days | 27.9% | 11.8% | 10.2% |
| Marlins | Road | 29.8% | 12.3% | 10.4% | RH | 33.9% | 16.0% | 15.4% | L7Days | 32.5% | 20.4% | 11.5% |
| Giants | Road | 32.5% | 12.2% | 15.6% | RH | 27.0% | 4.7% | 8.6% | L7Days | 23.9% | 5.4% | 0.8% |
| Yankees | Road | 30.9% | 9.7% | 9.7% | RH | 32.5% | 15.4% | 11.2% | L7Days | 33.6% | 17.5% | 12.4% |
| Cardinals | Road | 32.6% | 15.4% | 18.8% | RH | 26.6% | 13.9% | 8.7% | L7Days | 33.5% | 17.3% | 19.1% |
K/SwStr Chart (2016 LG AVG – 20.2 K% – 9.5 SwStr% – 2.13 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Conley | MIA | 18.8% | 9.7% | 1.94 | 18.8% | 9.7% | 1.94 |
| Adam Wainwright | STL | 18.8% | 8.3% | 2.27 | 18.8% | 8.3% | 2.27 |
| Alex Cobb | TAM | 14.5% | 9.1% | 1.59 | 14.5% | 9.1% | 1.59 |
| Alex Meyer | ANA | ||||||
| Alex Wood | LOS | 21.1% | 11.3% | 1.87 | 21.1% | 11.3% | 1.87 |
| Bartolo Colon | ATL | 22.2% | 6.3% | 3.52 | 22.2% | 6.3% | 3.52 |
| CC Sabathia | NYY | 14.9% | 10.0% | 1.49 | 14.9% | 10.0% | 1.49 |
| Cole Hamels | TEX | 14.7% | 6.6% | 2.23 | 14.7% | 6.6% | 2.23 |
| Corey Kluber | CLE | 22.5% | 10.1% | 2.23 | 22.5% | 10.1% | 2.23 |
| Drew Pomeranz | BOS | 37.2% | 9.3% | 4.00 | 37.2% | 9.3% | 4.00 |
| Dylan Bundy | BAL | 23.6% | 13.2% | 1.79 | 23.6% | 13.2% | 1.79 |
| Hector Santiago | MIN | 15.3% | 10.5% | 1.46 | 15.3% | 10.5% | 1.46 |
| Hisashi Iwakuma | SEA | 9.8% | 7.6% | 1.29 | 9.8% | 7.6% | 1.29 |
| Jacob deGrom | NYM | 30.6% | 14.9% | 2.05 | 30.6% | 14.9% | 2.05 |
| Jeremy Hellickson | PHI | 7.7% | 6.4% | 1.20 | 7.7% | 6.4% | 1.20 |
| Johnny Cueto | SFO | 22.5% | 13.5% | 1.67 | 22.5% | 13.5% | 1.67 |
| Jon Lester | CHC | 24.3% | 8.5% | 2.86 | 24.3% | 8.5% | 2.86 |
| Jose Quintana | CHW | 17.5% | 7.2% | 2.43 | 17.5% | 7.2% | 2.43 |
| Justin Verlander | DET | 23.7% | 9.7% | 2.44 | 23.7% | 9.7% | 2.44 |
| Mat Latos | TOR | ||||||
| Mike Fiers | HOU | 17.4% | 11.8% | 1.47 | 17.4% | 11.8% | 1.47 |
| Nathan Karns | KAN | 15.4% | 8.6% | 1.79 | 15.4% | 8.6% | 1.79 |
| Sean Manaea | OAK | 28.2% | 15.6% | 1.81 | 28.2% | 15.6% | 1.81 |
| Taijuan Walker | ARI | 22.2% | 11.8% | 1.88 | 22.2% | 11.8% | 1.88 |
| Tanner Roark | WAS | 16.4% | 9.3% | 1.76 | 16.4% | 9.3% | 1.76 |
| Tim Adleman | CIN | 35.7% | 14.0% | 2.55 | 35.7% | 14.0% | 2.55 |
| Trevor Cahill | SDG | 30.6% | 16.9% | 1.81 | 30.6% | 16.9% | 1.81 |
| Tyler Chatwood | COL | 20.8% | 9.7% | 2.14 | 20.8% | 9.7% | 2.14 |
| Tyler Glasnow | PIT | 20.0% | 9.2% | 2.17 | 20.0% | 9.2% | 2.17 |
| Wily Peralta | MIL | 19.4% | 5.3% | 3.66 | 19.4% | 5.3% | 3.66 |
While guys like Drew Pomeranz, Jon Lester, and Wily Peralta may be headed for a downswing in their strikeout rates, more eye-opening is the guys with the highest swinging strike rates on today’s board.
ERA Estimators Chart (2016 LG AVG – 4.34 ERA – 4.30 SIERA – 4.24 xFIP – 4.30 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | Season DRA | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Conley | MIA | 3.75 | 4.66 | 0.91 | 4.78 | 1.03 | 4.84 | 1.09 | 5.82 | 2.07 | 3.75 | 4.66 | 0.91 | 4.78 | 1.03 | 4.84 | 1.09 |
| Adam Wainwright | STL | 7.24 | 4.21 | -3.03 | 4.07 | -3.17 | 4.24 | -3 | 7.75 | 0.51 | 7.24 | 4.22 | -3.02 | 4.07 | -3.17 | 4.24 | -3 |
| Alex Cobb | TAM | 4.5 | 4.2 | -0.3 | 4.05 | -0.45 | 5.09 | 0.59 | 6.65 | 2.15 | 4.5 | 4.2 | -0.3 | 4.05 | -0.45 | 5.09 | 0.59 |
| Alex Meyer | ANA | ||||||||||||||||
| Alex Wood | LOS | 1 | 4.6 | 3.6 | 4.55 | 3.55 | 3.14 | 2.14 | 4.55 | 3.55 | 1 | 4.62 | 3.62 | 4.55 | 3.55 | 3.14 | 2.14 |
| Bartolo Colon | ATL | 4.24 | 4.12 | -0.12 | 4.4 | 0.16 | 4.27 | 0.03 | 3.14 | -1.10 | 4.24 | 4.12 | -0.12 | 4.4 | 0.16 | 4.27 | 0.03 |
| CC Sabathia | NYY | 1.47 | 4.68 | 3.21 | 4.24 | 2.77 | 3.74 | 2.27 | 4.68 | 3.21 | 1.47 | 4.68 | 3.21 | 4.24 | 2.77 | 3.74 | 2.27 |
| Cole Hamels | TEX | 3.5 | 4.78 | 1.28 | 4.95 | 1.45 | 5.53 | 2.03 | 3.27 | -0.23 | 3.5 | 4.78 | 1.28 | 4.95 | 1.45 | 5.53 | 2.03 |
| Corey Kluber | CLE | 6.38 | 3.83 | -2.55 | 4.01 | -2.37 | 5.48 | -0.9 | 8.04 | 1.66 | 6.38 | 3.84 | -2.54 | 4.01 | -2.37 | 5.48 | -0.9 |
| Drew Pomeranz | BOS | 5.23 | 2.17 | -3.06 | 2.23 | -3 | 3.21 | -2.02 | 5.62 | 0.39 | 5.23 | 2.18 | -3.05 | 2.23 | -3 | 3.21 | -2.02 |
| Dylan Bundy | BAL | 1.86 | 3.21 | 1.35 | 3.02 | 1.16 | 1.63 | -0.23 | 3.64 | 1.78 | 1.86 | 3.22 | 1.36 | 3.02 | 1.16 | 1.63 | -0.23 |
| Hector Santiago | MIN | 1.47 | 4.27 | 2.8 | 4.78 | 3.31 | 3.41 | 1.94 | 5.49 | 4.02 | 1.47 | 4.28 | 2.81 | 4.78 | 3.31 | 3.41 | 1.94 |
| Hisashi Iwakuma | SEA | 5.4 | 5.7 | 0.3 | 5.74 | 0.34 | 6.99 | 1.59 | 6.14 | 0.74 | 5.4 | 5.7 | 0.3 | 5.74 | 0.34 | 6.99 | 1.59 |
| Jacob deGrom | NYM | 1.89 | 2.33 | 0.44 | 2.32 | 0.43 | 2.6 | 0.71 | 0.93 | -0.96 | 1.89 | 2.33 | 0.44 | 2.32 | 0.43 | 2.6 | 0.71 |
| Jeremy Hellickson | PHI | 1.59 | 5.62 | 4.03 | 5.46 | 3.87 | 3.8 | 2.21 | 3.76 | 2.17 | 1.59 | 5.62 | 4.03 | 5.46 | 3.87 | 3.8 | 2.21 |
| Johnny Cueto | SFO | 3.79 | 3.72 | -0.07 | 3.96 | 0.17 | 4.18 | 0.39 | 1.90 | -1.89 | 3.79 | 3.72 | -0.07 | 3.96 | 0.17 | 4.18 | 0.39 |
| Jon Lester | CHC | 1 | 3.41 | 2.41 | 3.53 | 2.53 | 2.03 | 1.03 | 2.73 | 1.73 | 1 | 3.41 | 2.41 | 3.53 | 2.53 | 2.03 | 1.03 |
| Jose Quintana | CHW | 6.75 | 4.87 | -1.88 | 5.32 | -1.43 | 6.03 | -0.72 | 11.09 | 4.34 | 6.75 | 4.87 | -1.88 | 5.32 | -1.43 | 6.03 | -0.72 |
| Justin Verlander | DET | 5.71 | 3.58 | -2.13 | 3.81 | -1.9 | 3.96 | -1.75 | 2.93 | -2.78 | 5.71 | 3.58 | -2.13 | 3.81 | -1.9 | 3.96 | -1.75 |
| Mat Latos | TOR | ||||||||||||||||
| Mike Fiers | HOU | 5.4 | 4.37 | -1.03 | 4.26 | -1.14 | 6.42 | 1.02 | 4.52 | -0.88 | 5.4 | 4.37 | -1.03 | 4.26 | -1.14 | 6.42 | 1.02 |
| Nathan Karns | KAN | 4.38 | 4.54 | 0.16 | 4.61 | 0.23 | 4.38 | 0 | 7.09 | 2.71 | 4.38 | 4.56 | 0.18 | 4.61 | 0.23 | 4.38 | 0 |
| Sean Manaea | OAK | 5.51 | 3.47 | -2.04 | 3.73 | -1.78 | 3.65 | -1.86 | 1.18 | -4.33 | 5.51 | 3.47 | -2.04 | 3.73 | -1.78 | 3.65 | -1.86 |
| Taijuan Walker | ARI | 3.94 | 3.89 | -0.05 | 4.21 | 0.27 | 3.04 | -0.9 | 3.48 | -0.46 | 3.94 | 3.89 | -0.05 | 4.21 | 0.27 | 3.04 | -0.9 |
| Tanner Roark | WAS | 3.5 | 3.58 | 0.08 | 3.66 | 0.16 | 2.25 | -1.25 | 3.58 | 0.08 | 3.5 | 3.58 | 0.08 | 3.66 | 0.16 | 2.25 | -1.25 |
| Tim Adleman | CIN | 2.25 | 1.83 | -0.42 | 2.8 | 0.55 | 3.67 | 1.42 | 5.28 | 3.03 | 2.25 | 1.83 | -0.42 | 2.8 | 0.55 | 3.67 | 1.42 |
| Trevor Cahill | SDG | 4.76 | 3.3 | -1.46 | 3.1 | -1.66 | 3.27 | -1.49 | 3.66 | -1.10 | 4.76 | 3.31 | -1.45 | 3.1 | -1.66 | 3.27 | -1.49 |
| Tyler Chatwood | COL | 3.54 | 3.1 | -0.44 | 3.02 | -0.52 | 4.64 | 1.1 | 1.79 | -1.75 | 3.54 | 3.1 | -0.44 | 3.02 | -0.52 | 4.64 | 1.1 |
| Tyler Glasnow | PIT | 12.15 | 5.24 | -6.91 | 5.31 | -6.84 | 6.07 | -6.08 | 8.62 | -3.53 | 12.15 | 5.26 | -6.89 | 5.31 | -6.84 | 6.07 | -6.08 |
| Wily Peralta | MIL | 2.65 | 4.54 | 1.89 | 4.38 | 1.73 | 3.74 | 1.09 | 3.86 | 1.21 | 2.65 | 4.54 | 1.89 | 4.38 | 1.73 | 3.74 | 1.09 |
Approximately half of today’s starters are still separated by a run and a half or more from their estimators, still far too many to begin picking them apart individually at this point, though most of those traits have been mentioned above today.
BABIP & Statcast Chart (2016 LG AVG – .298 BABIP – 44.3 GB% – 20.9 LD% – 9.5 IFFB% – 87.2 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | GB% | Pitcher LD% | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact | Exit Velocity | Barrels BBE | Barrels PA | BBE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Conley | MIA | 0.249 | 0.156 | -0.093 | 34.4% | 0.156 | 12.5% | 89.6% | 90.4 | 9.70% | 6.30% | 31 |
| Adam Wainwright | STL | 0.309 | 0.458 | 0.149 | 41.7% | 0.271 | 6.7% | 90.7% | 90 | 8.50% | 5.80% | 47 |
| Alex Cobb | TAM | 0.275 | 0.293 | 0.018 | 44.3% | 0.213 | 0.0% | 94.3% | 91 | 8.20% | 6.60% | 61 |
| Alex Meyer | ANA | 0.271 | ||||||||||
| Alex Wood | LOS | 0.267 | 0.125 | -0.142 | 58.3% | 0.083 | 25.0% | 83.7% | 85.8 | 4.80% | 2.60% | 21 |
| Bartolo Colon | ATL | 0.273 | 0.167 | -0.106 | 25.0% | 0.159 | 15.4% | 89.2% | 88.9 | 4.90% | 3.20% | 41 |
| CC Sabathia | NYY | 0.272 | 0.204 | -0.068 | 44.4% | 0.296 | 7.1% | 81.0% | 85.6 | 3.80% | 2.70% | 53 |
| Cole Hamels | TEX | 0.280 | 0.235 | -0.045 | 47.2% | 0.189 | 11.1% | 90.3% | 87.3 | 3.80% | 2.70% | 53 |
| Corey Kluber | CLE | 0.328 | 0.294 | -0.034 | 30.4% | 0.268 | 4.2% | 85.4% | 91.2 | 11.10% | 7.50% | 54 |
| Drew Pomeranz | BOS | 0.295 | 0.318 | 0.023 | 29.2% | 0.292 | 10.0% | 88.1% | 87.6 | 8.30% | 4.70% | 24 |
| Dylan Bundy | BAL | 0.311 | 0.308 | -0.003 | 37.3% | 0.294 | 17.6% | 84.6% | 85.8 | 2.00% | 1.40% | 50 |
| Hector Santiago | MIN | 0.243 | 0.222 | -0.021 | 42.6% | 0.13 | 4.2% | 86.1% | 91.2 | 9.30% | 6.90% | 54 |
| Hisashi Iwakuma | SEA | 0.310 | 0.205 | -0.105 | 39.6% | 0.167 | 9.5% | 89.2% | 88.1 | 6.80% | 4.90% | 44 |
| Jacob deGrom | NYM | 0.307 | 0.227 | -0.08 | 60.9% | 0.109 | 7.7% | 73.8% | 84.2 | 2.20% | 1.40% | 46 |
| Jeremy Hellickson | PHI | 0.284 | 0.182 | -0.102 | 33.3% | 0.185 | 7.7% | 87.7% | 89.2 | 4.30% | 3.10% | 46 |
| Johnny Cueto | SFO | 0.303 | 0.269 | -0.034 | 41.8% | 0.182 | 13.6% | 81.3% | 89.3 | 9.80% | 6.30% | 51 |
| Jon Lester | CHC | 0.256 | 0.298 | 0.042 | 47.8% | 0.152 | 0.0% | 89.5% | 88.2 | 4.50% | 2.90% | 44 |
| Jose Quintana | CHW | 0.255 | 0.288 | 0.033 | 37.5% | 0.179 | 12.0% | 90.7% | 89.5 | 5.40% | 3.80% | 56 |
| Justin Verlander | DET | 0.313 | 0.340 | 0.027 | 32.1% | 0.245 | 0.0% | 85.2% | 88.1 | 11.50% | 7.90% | 52 |
| Mat Latos | TOR | 0.302 | ||||||||||
| Mike Fiers | HOU | 0.266 | 0.258 | -0.008 | 46.9% | 0.188 | 18.2% | 83.9% | 86.9 | 6.30% | 4.30% | 32 |
| Nathan Karns | KAN | 0.265 | 0.306 | 0.041 | 62.2% | 0.108 | 0.0% | 88.7% | 88.2 | 6.10% | 3.80% | 33 |
| Sean Manaea | OAK | 0.250 | 0.189 | -0.061 | 63.2% | 0.132 | 0.0% | 87.1% | 91.3 | 5.30% | 2.80% | 38 |
| Taijuan Walker | ARI | 0.292 | 0.313 | 0.021 | 36.7% | 0.224 | 15.0% | 85.3% | 89.1 | 6.10% | 4.20% | 49 |
| Tanner Roark | WAS | 0.293 | 0.246 | -0.047 | 53.7% | 0.167 | 0.0% | 90.9% | 87.8 | 2.00% | 1.40% | 50 |
| Tim Adleman | CIN | 0.262 | 0.125 | -0.137 | 22.2% | 0.111 | 0.0% | 82.4% | ||||
| Trevor Cahill | SDG | 0.262 | 0.308 | 0.046 | 51.9% | 0.222 | 0.0% | 84.6% | 91.4 | 7.70% | 4.10% | 26 |
| Tyler Chatwood | COL | 0.284 | 0.231 | -0.053 | 62.5% | 0.161 | 0.0% | 91.2% | 84.9 | 1.90% | 1.30% | 54 |
| Tyler Glasnow | PIT | 0.292 | 0.391 | 0.099 | 45.8% | 0.333 | 20.0% | 87.5% | 84.4 | 4.20% | 2.50% | 24 |
| Wily Peralta | MIL | 0.306 | 0.227 | -0.079 | 51.2% | 0.14 | 6.7% | 91.9% | 87.1 | 7.30% | 4.50% | 41 |
The same applies here as was just stated below the ERA estimators chart.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
Value Tier One
Sean Manaea (2) ran into a sudden control problem during a no-hitter last time out, but has not otherwise had those issues. What he does have is an ability to generate elite ground ball and strikeout rates in a great park. That’s some pretty strong potential for less than $8K.
Value Tier Two
Jacob deGrom (1) does have a tough matchup tonight, but looks fantastic once again. Not only is he missing bats at an elite rate, but he’s dominating contact too (-10.8 Hard-Soft%). He’s among the most expensive pitchers on the board tonight, but may have the most upside.
Value Tier Three
Drew Pomeranz (4t) is in a “better than it looks” spot. He’s had mixed results in two starts, but can miss bats and is likely priced much too low. The Orioles retain some power against LHP, but strangely have a lineup full of RHBs that have trouble hitting them consistently.
Trevor Cahill is not a name anyone expected to see here and he still certainly has flawed, but the bat missing skills he’s shown through just a couple of stats are eye-opening. Something is different and it seems to be one interesting pitch. This may be an error, but we could also be ahead of the curve at a low cost here. He’s also favorably in a great environment against a somewhat neutral opponent.
Johnny Cueto is in a park we normally don’t venture to for pitching, but the cost is reduced some $2K and the Rockies have been absolutely terrible. Ownership numbers will be interesting in this matchup. Too low one way or the other could make for some interesting contrarian plays.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Jon Lester (3) may not merit the highest cost on the board by his peripherals, but there’s no reason to think he’s not still a very good pitcher and the Reds have struggled against much lesser arms this week.
Justin Verlander (4t) didn’t strike out many Red Sox and allowed three bombs to the Tribe in his last start. He’s expensive and is giving up a bit too much hard contact, but is more affordable on FanDuel ($9.4K).
CC Sabathia is in a nice spot at a reasonable price. He won’t retain the low BABIP, but there are things in his peripherals that the estimators don’t consider (high SwStr%, weak contact).
Alex Wood is likely not in a great spot, but he has some upside and might be too cheap.
Tanner Roark is facing a lineup thinned out a bit by key losses over the last couple of days in a favorable park. The issue here is the lack of upside. If he gives up a few early, those points may be tough to get back.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
NOTE: Button for pitcher salary chart above opens in popup window