Advanced Stats - Pitching: Friday, July 13th
Well, if you were aware of yesterday’s slate (and Wednesday’s), you were probably prepared for what was to come. When you have back to back great pitching slates, the bill eventually comes due. Unfortunately for a daily fantasy pitching writer, payment is required on a full 15 game slate. This one is going to require some work and I’m not sure we wind up in many happy places.
As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, ownership projections and the weather forecast as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. All of these things are available right here on the site.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB% L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Cobb | Orioles | -8.2 | 4.52 | 5.7 | 48.9% | 1.04 | 4.04 | 4.50 | Rangers | 83 | 90 | 63 |
| Anibal Sanchez | Braves | 4.8 | 4.04 | 5.4 | 38.3% | 0.99 | 3.79 | 3.68 | Diamondbacks | 86 | 82 | 110 |
| Antonio Senzatela | Rockies | -0.6 | 4.51 | 5.6 | 50.9% | 1.35 | 4.44 | 4.95 | Mariners | 105 | 104 | 78 |
| Brad Keller | Royals | 4.9 | 4.62 | 5.4 | 56.5% | 0.96 | 4.52 | 5.85 | White Sox | 92 | 93 | 50 |
| Carlos Martinez | Cardinals | -1.7 | 4.06 | 6.2 | 51.3% | 0.93 | 3.99 | 3.87 | Reds | 99 | 99 | 115 |
| Christian Bergman | Mariners | 0.1 | 4.99 | 5.5 | 40.0% | 1.35 | 6.14 | Rockies | 90 | 81 | 122 | |
| Clayton Richard | Padres | -3.4 | 4.17 | 6.1 | 59.4% | 0.91 | 3.45 | 6.99 | Cubs | 100 | 103 | 80 |
| Cole Hamels | Rangers | 2.6 | 4.32 | 6.1 | 46.6% | 1.04 | 4.56 | 3.16 | Orioles | 89 | 80 | 87 |
| Dallas Keuchel | Astros | 3.2 | 3.76 | 6.3 | 60.3% | 0.89 | 3.57 | 3.86 | Tigers | 80 | 108 | 76 |
| Domingo German | Yankees | 4.5 | 3.62 | 5.4 | 40.5% | 1.10 | 4.42 | 4.46 | Indians | 123 | 106 | 112 |
| Edwin Jackson | Athletics | 2.4 | 4.99 | 5.6 | 38.0% | 0.91 | 4.86 | 4.99 | Giants | 106 | 98 | 80 |
| Felix Pena | Angels | 2.8 | 3.65 | 4.8 | 41.0% | 0.90 | 5.52 | 2.39 | Dodgers | 107 | 110 | 64 |
| Jake Arrieta | Phillies | -9.5 | 4.25 | 5.8 | 49.5% | 0.90 | 4.15 | 3.58 | Marlins | 85 | 90 | 126 |
| Jake Odorizzi | Twins | -0.6 | 4.58 | 5.3 | 30.8% | 1.04 | 4.66 | 3.55 | Rays | 91 | 97 | 122 |
| James Shields | White Sox | -5.9 | 5.05 | 5.7 | 37.1% | 0.96 | 5.04 | 4.81 | Royals | 82 | 81 | 111 |
| Junior Guerra | Brewers | 7.2 | 4.71 | 5.2 | 39.0% | 0.97 | 5.15 | 4.17 | Pirates | 99 | 92 | 94 |
| Madison Bumgarner | Giants | -6.3 | 3.83 | 6.4 | 40.4% | 0.91 | 3.75 | 4.41 | Athletics | 118 | 93 | 120 |
| Matt Harvey | Reds | -1.1 | 4.96 | 5.1 | 42.7% | 0.93 | 4.89 | 3.57 | Cardinals | 93 | 97 | 92 |
| Mike Fiers | Tigers | 2.9 | 4.36 | 5.5 | 41.4% | 0.89 | 4.76 | 3.91 | Astros | 107 | 110 | 105 |
| Nathan Eovaldi | Rays | 0.1 | 3.84 | 5.7 | 47.4% | 1.04 | 3.40 | 2.47 | Twins | 97 | 95 | 123 |
| Nick Kingham | Pirates | -5.1 | 3.93 | 5.5 | 38.6% | 0.97 | 3.78 | 4.95 | Brewers | 92 | 96 | 91 |
| Noah Syndergaard | Mets | -5.2 | 3.10 | 5.6 | 50.2% | 0.91 | 2.48 | Nationals | 91 | 95 | 114 | |
| Rick Porcello | Red Sox | 5.4 | 3.98 | 6.4 | 41.0% | 1.12 | 4.20 | 3.60 | Blue Jays | 92 | 99 | 99 |
| Ryan Borucki | Blue Jays | -2.9 | 4.21 | 6.7 | 44.1% | 1.12 | 6.31 | 3.15 | Red Sox | 125 | 96 | 155 |
| Shane Bieber | Indians | 6.6 | 3.48 | 6.0 | 45.5% | 1.10 | 2.81 | 4.36 | Yankees | 110 | 112 | 130 |
| Tanner Roark | Nationals | -3.7 | 4.48 | 6.0 | 45.6% | 0.91 | 4.51 | 4.93 | Mets | 78 | 94 | 52 |
| Tyler Chatwood | Cubs | 10 | 5.03 | 5.3 | 56.9% | 0.91 | 4.63 | 5.01 | Padres | 93 | 80 | 68 |
| Walker Buehler | Dodgers | -5.1 | 3.41 | 5.7 | 55.4% | 0.90 | 2.90 | 7.27 | Angels | 104 | 107 | 97 |
| Wei-Yin Chen | Marlins | -0.3 | 4.64 | 4.9 | 39.2% | 0.90 | 4.47 | 3.84 | Phillies | 89 | 86 | 101 |
| Zack Godley | Diamondbacks | 1.6 | 3.95 | 5.8 | 53.7% | 0.99 | 3.75 | 4.23 | Braves | 95 | 95 | 108 |
Anibal Sanchez set a season high with eight strikeouts in 6.2 innings (one run) against the Brewers last time out and has been a real, legitimate starting pitcher for the Braves this season. While his estimators are a bit higher than his ERA, somewhere around four, he has a 23.2 K% and the fourth best xwOBA on the board (.289) due to great contact management (84.5 mph aEV and 25.9% 95+ mph). The Diamondbacks are a bit healthier now, but have really struggled with RHP (82 wRC+, 24.4 K%).
Carlos Martinez threw seven innings of one run ball last time out, but struck out just three Giants. The strikeouts have been hit or miss, leaving him at a league average rate overall, but the walk rate has been down significantly with just five over his last four starts (40 over his first 11). On the one hand, he’s been below a 30% hard hit rate (Fangraphs) just three times this season. On the other, Statcast credits him for the third lowest aEV on the board (84.7 mph) and the lowest rate of Barrels/BBE (2.9%). The Reds are a quality, well-disciplined offense (11.6 K-BB%), but having this matchup in St Louis does make quite a difference.
Clayton Richard has allowed eight runs over his last 11 innings with nine walks and just four strikeouts. He snapped a streak of 11 straight starts of six innings or more last time out (five innings). A total of 11 strikeouts over his last four starts has dropped his strikeout rate significantly over the last month and while the ground ball rate has been above 50% in most starts, it’s been below his season average (57.4%) with a hard hit rate above 45% in four of his last five starts. Each of his last six outings have come on the road and perhaps the home cooking helps him some tonight. The Cubs aren’t a bad offense, but are more plate discipline than power and have been struggling themselves.
Dallas Keuchel did walk three with just two strikeouts last time out (against the White Sox of all teams), but completed seven innings for the second straight outing (three total runs) and did strike out seven Rangers with just one walk in the first of those. Strikeouts and ground balls are both down this season, though the latter is still one of the better rates in the league, while his ERA and estimators are still below four. The Tigers have been better than competent against LHP this year (108 wRC+, 19.9 K%), though with a lack of power. In, perhaps, the most negative run environment in baseball, he does face a struggling offense (18.6 K-BB%, 8.9 HR/FB last seven days).
Domingo German is one of the higher upside arms on this board. His 26.9 K% is third best on the board. His 15.0 SwStr% is tied for best. While his ERA remains well above his estimators, run prevention has improved over the last month and the fact that it’s been a product of strand rate much more than hard contact or control issues gives us more confidence. The negative here is that he’s in one of the toughest spots on the board (Indians 123 wRC+, 27.5 Hard-Soft% at home, 106 wRC+, 20.6 K% vs RHP).
Edwin Jackson hasn’t been terrible for Oakland (21.6 K%, 4.12 SIERA, .285 xwOBA) and has faced Cleveland in two of his three starts. This is not something we’d expect to continue, but he’s in a nice spot (Giants 15.8 K-BB%, 10.5 HR/FB vs RHP) in a great park tonight.
Felix Pena hasn’t completed six innings in any of his four starts, but has at least five strikeouts in all four. In fact, his 30.1 K% since moving into the rotation is highest on the board over the last month. We probably shouldn’t expect this to continue and there will be some problems if it does not because he’s allowed the loudest contact on the board (91 mph aEV, 46.8% 95+ mph EV), but it’s working right now and this board is lacking strikeout upside. The Dodgers are a difficult opponent (110 wRC+, 12 K-BB%, 14.6 HR/FB vs RHP), but have a 24.2 K% and 6.3 HR/FB over the last week and are somewhat neutralized by one of the most negative run environments in baseball.
Mike Fiers is a surprise to both you and me here, but here are his last three starts: 21 IP – 80 BF – 13 H – 3 ER – 1 HR – 3 BB – 16 K against Texas, Toronto and Oakland. The strikeout rate remains below average, the estimators well above the ERA and his 9.5% Barrels/BBE is fourth highest on the board. The Astros have been good, not great with Springer in an extended slump and Correa still out. They still limit strikeouts, but also play in maybe the most negative run environment on the board.
Nate Eovaldi allowed one hit without a run in six innings or more with nine strikeouts for the second time in three starts last time out (vs Mets and Nationals). The bat missing pitch…has been his four-seam fastball??? The pitch has a 25.3 Whiff% this year, his highest among any pitch. What’s the deal? He pitches for the Rays now. Take a look at his Statcast page. For years, the Rays have preached elevated fastballs, so when a guy throws 97 mph, why the hell isn’t he elevating? That’s not to say that this is something that sticks, but it’s encouraging. In a strange way, TJ surgery may have been a blessing because it landed him in Tampa Bay where they may finally help him realize his full potential. The Yankees were on an interesting path that emphasized non-fastball pitches, the Rays are embracing what he does best. The Twins don’t strike out much (21.1% vs RHP) and are really a marginal offense in a somewhat positive run environment.
Shane Bieber has a 19.2 K-BB% through six major league starts that’s his lowest rate since being drafted in 2016. If you remove the two strikeouts he had against a prone Kansas City team two starts back, he’s struck out at least five in each of his other starts and has not walked more than one, going 5.2 innings in each of his first two starts and at least six innings in each of his last four. He does have an 82.3 LOB%, but that’s balanced out by a .389 BABIP, which should even out as they regress. The once concern in his numbers is an 89.9 mph aEV that’s third worst on the board because Cleveland is a tough park and the Yankees hit the ball hard (16+ HR/FB on the road, vs RHP and over the last seven days). This is one of five really terrible spots on this board.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is usually extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm.
League AVG (.288 BABIP – 72.9 LOB% – 13.1 HR/FB)
Brad Keller (.303 – 77.4% – 0.0 as a starter) is in a great spot against the White Sox (19.6 K-BB% at home, 19.2 K-BB% vs RHP, 30 K% and -8.4 Hard-Soft% last seven days), but has just a 3.8 K-BB% through seven starts.
Jake Arrieta (.278 – 65.1% – 12.5) struck out eight last time out. It was just the third time he’d struck out more than five batters. Incredibly, he’s struck out 18 of 52 Pirates faced this year, 51 of 346 against the rest of the league (14.7%). He doesn’t allow a lot of hard contact and does keep the ball on the ground (55.5%), but what good is that really with maybe the worst defense in baseball behind him? Tonight it’s the Marlins. Good news, right? They have just a 22.7 K% vs RHP and 15.7 K% over the last week. I don’t know that I want to pay $8K or more here. The really crazy thing here is that his ERA is well below estimators despite a very low strand rate. Why? Because 15 of his 52 runs (a staggering 28.9%) have been unearned.
Madison Bumgarner (.271 – 78.5% – 8.7) may be the top pitcher on the board, but man, is he over-priced on DraftKings for a guy without even a league average strikeout rate. The positives here are a great park and a talented offense that has struggled against LHP (93 wRC+, 15.5 K-BB%) and that might make him accurately priced on FanDuel ($9.4K) at best. The funny thing is, I can’t certainly say he’s not the top arm on the board tonight either, just that maybe nobody deserves a $10K price tag tonight.
Junior Guerra (.269 – 84.6 – 9.5) can be granted his low BABIP because the team defense is right there with him, but the strand rate is a hard “No”. The cost is fairly high against an offense that does not strike out much (19.5% vs RHP).
Ryan Borucki (.322 – 80% – 0.0) hasn’t been bad for the Blue Jays (12.3 K-BB%), but had just a 9.5 K-BB% in 13 AAA starts this season and is in one of the worst spots on the board at Fenway against a Boston offense improved vs LHP (though Pearce left the game last night) and a board topping 155 wRC+ (4.2 K-BB%) over the last week.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Noah Syndergaard last pitched in May and faced 19 low A batters in his lone rehab start. There’s a part of me that looks at his board leading 28.3 K% and 15 SwStr% with a .274 xwOBA and thinks that the Mets really don’t like giving the ball to this bullpen, but Seth Lugo hasn’t pitched since Monday and can probably cover three innings if he goes five in his return. Sigh, the cost is too high with an uncertain workload.
Walker Buehler lasted one inning, allowing five runs to nine batters in his last start against the Cubs two weeks ago before exiting with a rib injury. The problem is that that was also his first start in three weeks and he’s faced just 12 minor league batters since. Workload is always a concern with Dodger pitchers, but his 25.6 K% is fourth best on the board and while there are some swinging strike concerns, it’s been better since his first couple of starts (below 9% against just the Braves since his second start). However, he’s facing a decent offense with just a 20 K%. That, along with the even more uncertain workload might be tough to overcome, especially at $9.5K on DraftKings.
Nick Kingham struck out nine in his first start, seven in his next and no more than five since. He’s been a bit HR prone (eight in eight starts) despite not pitching in very many power friendly environments and that’s a bit of a problem against a Milwaukee team with a 16.7 HR/FB vs RHP, who homered off him twice the first time they faced him. There’s also some upside here too (25.4 K% vs RHP), as the Brewers were that second start with seven strikeouts.
Wei-Yin Chen got smashed for seven runs against the Nationals last time out. He has an ERA and DRA exceeding six now with all of his other estimators above five. That said, he does manage contact well in a big park and the Phillies have just an 86 wRC+ vs LHP despite fewer strikeouts (22.8%). He’d probably be okay if you need a $4.8K secondary pitcher on DraftKings tonight, but I’m not even going to go through the trouble of listing him because I don’t know why you would.
Tanner Roark has allowed at least four runs in four of his last five starts with estimators around five or above. He failed to complete five innings in three of those starts and has just a 6.7 SwStr% over the last month. That said, he may be a bit too cheap on FanDuel ($6.8K) in a nice spot (Mets 78 wRC+ at home, 52 wRC+ last seven days), but maybe not (.408 xwOBA last 30 days).
Matt Harvey may not be terrible anymore, though his non-FIP estimators are nearly two runs above his ERA and FIP over the last month (no HRs allowed despite a 35.2 Hard% and league average ground ball rate), but he’s exceeded six innings just once this season with a high of six strikeouts. He is in a decent spot in St Louis and may not torpedo your team, but I don’t see him adding much to it either.
James Shields has gone at least 5.2 innings in all but one start since the end of April. He has a .248 BABIP and six unearned runs over his last five starts, which puts his ERA below his estimators and while he’s in a favorable run prevention spot against the Royals, it has low strikeout upside (19.7% vs RHP).
Zack Godley has been inconsistent and unpredictable this season. The overall results are a bit below average due to an 11.6 BB% and 8.6% Barrels/BBE to go with his 22.5 K% and 51.4 GB% and while the Braves don’t have much power (10.6 HR/FB vs RHP), they don’t strike out enough (20.3% vs RHP) to invest $8K in him tonight.
Alex Cobb is really cheap or he’d be lower.
Tyler Chatwood is still averaging nearly a walk per inning (18.9%).
Cole Hamels has allowed the highest rate of Barrels/BBE on the board 9.8% and the Orioles have just a 21.3 K% vs LHP despite their 80 wRC+. DraftKings wants $9K for that.
Rick Porcello can’t support his strikeout increase over the last month (7.3%), can barely support his strikeout rate for the season (2.61 K/SwStr), is not generating above average grounders or limiting hard contact as he was earlier in the year (12 HRs last 14 starts) and is facing a decent offense in a very tough park. I believe his ERA and estimators over the last month are a bit of a mirage, which probably reach above four if his strikeout rate decreases.
Peripherals (Pitcher)
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Cobb | Orioles | L2 Yrs | 16.4% | 6.1% | 14.7% | 19.1% | Season | 15.2% | 6.3% | 16.0% | 15.6% | Home | 17.7% | 5.5% | 14.9% | 16.4% | L14Days | 19.2% | 7.7% | 12.5% | 29.7% |
| Anibal Sanchez | Braves | L2 Yrs | 22.0% | 6.1% | 16.0% | 13.9% | Season | 23.3% | 7.9% | 10.8% | 1.8% | Home | 24.0% | 5.0% | 14.0% | 16.0% | L14Days | 24.0% | 6.0% | 7.7% | 8.8% |
| Antonio Senzatela | Rockies | L2 Yrs | 17.5% | 8.1% | 14.5% | 12.5% | Season | 15.2% | 6.8% | 9.7% | 18.8% | Home | 15.3% | 7.4% | 16.7% | 14.9% | L14Days | 11.8% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 22.0% |
| Brad Keller | Royals | L2 Yrs | 14.2% | 9.3% | 2.2% | 12.2% | Season | 14.2% | 9.3% | 2.2% | 12.2% | Road | 14.2% | 7.5% | 3.6% | 2.2% | L14Days | 9.6% | 9.6% | 4.8% | |
| Carlos Martinez | Cardinals | L2 Yrs | 23.8% | 9.3% | 12.4% | 13.1% | Season | 22.0% | 11.9% | 3.9% | 15.4% | Home | 22.9% | 9.0% | 9.6% | 7.8% | L14Days | 19.2% | 3.9% | 15.0% | |
| Christian Bergman | Mariners | L2 Yrs | 14.1% | 5.9% | 17.2% | 21.8% | Season | 21.7% | Road | 5.7% | 6.5% | 23.7% | 33.6% | L14Days | |||||||
| Clayton Richard | Padres | L2 Yrs | 17.1% | 7.9% | 16.8% | 17.4% | Season | 17.7% | 8.4% | 14.7% | 22.0% | Home | 19.3% | 6.4% | 12.9% | 18.6% | L14Days | 8.2% | 18.4% | 16.7% | 44.1% |
| Cole Hamels | Rangers | L2 Yrs | 21.1% | 8.5% | 14.5% | 22.7% | Season | 23.5% | 8.7% | 21.4% | 28.7% | Road | 20.3% | 9.0% | 14.5% | 21.2% | L14Days | 25.7% | 5.7% | 25.0% | 45.9% |
| Dallas Keuchel | Astros | L2 Yrs | 20.0% | 7.1% | 16.3% | 3.2% | Season | 17.8% | 6.4% | 14.0% | 4.8% | Home | 18.7% | 7.3% | 16.9% | -3.7% | L14Days | 16.1% | 7.1% | -9.3% | |
| Domingo German | Yankees | L2 Yrs | 27.2% | 9.2% | 17.2% | 17.2% | Season | 26.9% | 8.1% | 17.7% | 19.6% | Road | 22.6% | 7.3% | 14.6% | 21.6% | L14Days | 23.4% | 10.6% | 20.0% | 9.7% |
| Edwin Jackson | Athletics | L2 Yrs | 17.6% | 9.2% | 15.3% | 12.2% | Season | 21.6% | 5.4% | 8.3% | Road | 16.9% | 6.1% | 13.4% | 6.7% | L14Days | 18.4% | 8.2% | 10.5% | -2.8% | |
| Felix Pena | Angels | L2 Yrs | 26.9% | 9.4% | 15.6% | 21.8% | Season | 28.1% | 6.3% | 15.8% | 25.8% | Road | 20.8% | 10.4% | 20.0% | 24.0% | L14Days | 31.7% | 4.9% | 19.2% | |
| Jake Arrieta | Phillies | L2 Yrs | 20.9% | 8.2% | 13.5% | 7.5% | Season | 17.3% | 7.5% | 8.4% | Road | 20.7% | 7.9% | 16.0% | 11.8% | L14Days | 20.8% | 6.3% | 12.5% | ||
| Jake Odorizzi | Twins | L2 Yrs | 21.8% | 9.2% | 13.2% | 17.9% | Season | 24.2% | 10.5% | 11.8% | 15.6% | Home | 22.5% | 8.8% | 15.8% | 23.3% | L14Days | 31.9% | 11.6% | 6.7% | 30.7% |
| James Shields | White Sox | L2 Yrs | 17.8% | 9.8% | 15.0% | 17.2% | Season | 16.7% | 9.3% | 9.7% | 18.2% | Home | 18.7% | 9.9% | 10.9% | 15.4% | L14Days | 21.1% | 10.5% | 17.6% | 30.8% |
| Junior Guerra | Brewers | L2 Yrs | 21.5% | 11.2% | 12.7% | 18.0% | Season | 23.5% | 9.4% | 9.5% | 24.9% | Road | 19.4% | 10.7% | 15.1% | 28.0% | L14Days | 24.0% | 9.3% | 8.7% | 34.0% |
| Madison Bumgarner | Giants | L2 Yrs | 23.4% | 5.4% | 11.9% | 15.7% | Season | 19.6% | 7.6% | 8.7% | 15.8% | Home | 24.0% | 5.2% | 11.4% | 22.7% | L14Days | 20.4% | 9.3% | 10.0% | 5.4% |
| Matt Harvey | Reds | L2 Yrs | 16.4% | 8.6% | 17.0% | 14.8% | Season | 17.3% | 6.0% | 13.3% | 22.0% | Road | 14.8% | 8.1% | 14.7% | 17.6% | L14Days | 21.3% | 2.1% | ||
| Mike Fiers | Tigers | L2 Yrs | 20.5% | 7.4% | 15.4% | 14.5% | Season | 17.8% | 5.1% | 12.1% | 19.4% | Road | 20.3% | 8.4% | 19.5% | 9.5% | L14Days | 21.2% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 20.5% |
| Nathan Eovaldi | Rays | L2 Yrs | 21.0% | 4.8% | 16.7% | 12.1% | Season | 24.3% | 3.3% | 18.8% | 8.4% | Road | 22.5% | 2.8% | 18.4% | 3.8% | L14Days | 29.8% | 2.1% | 11.1% | 15.6% |
| Nick Kingham | Pirates | L2 Yrs | 22.2% | 5.8% | 14.5% | 22.6% | Season | 22.2% | 5.8% | 14.5% | 22.6% | Home | 23.7% | 4.1% | 7.4% | 17.6% | L14Days | 15.6% | 8.9% | 36.4% | 27.3% |
| Noah Syndergaard | Mets | L2 Yrs | 27.9% | 5.7% | 8.0% | 4.0% | Season | 28.3% | 4.8% | 10.4% | -1.1% | Home | 30.7% | 4.4% | 7.5% | 2.5% | L14Days | ||||
| Rick Porcello | Red Sox | L2 Yrs | 21.4% | 4.8% | 11.6% | 16.3% | Season | 22.7% | 5.4% | 9.9% | 9.7% | Home | 21.6% | 5.2% | 13.2% | 15.0% | L14Days | 24.6% | 5.3% | 12.5% | 17.5% |
| Ryan Borucki | Blue Jays | L2 Yrs | 19.8% | 7.4% | 18.6% | Season | 19.8% | 7.4% | 18.6% | Road | 11.1% | 14.8% | 25.0% | L14Days | 24.1% | 3.7% | 15.4% | ||||
| Shane Bieber | Indians | L2 Yrs | 23.1% | 3.9% | 10.8% | 37.5% | Season | 23.1% | 3.9% | 10.8% | 37.5% | Home | 29.1% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 34.0% | L14Days | 17.0% | 3.8% | 12.5% | 42.9% |
| Tanner Roark | Nationals | L2 Yrs | 20.3% | 8.8% | 12.6% | 10.6% | Season | 19.7% | 8.7% | 13.2% | 11.5% | Road | 19.1% | 9.4% | 10.4% | 15.5% | L14Days | 16.7% | 9.5% | 12.5% | 18.6% |
| Tyler Chatwood | Cubs | L2 Yrs | 19.8% | 14.2% | 17.5% | 9.3% | Season | 20.0% | 18.9% | 10.3% | 11.2% | Road | 18.8% | 14.0% | 14.1% | 7.2% | L14Days | 18.2% | 12.7% | 20.0% | 18.4% |
| Walker Buehler | Dodgers | L2 Yrs | 25.9% | 7.8% | 11.1% | 11.9% | Season | 25.6% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 14.0% | Home | 25.9% | 5.2% | 12.0% | 12.9% | L14Days | 11.1% | 33.3% | 75.0% | |
| Wei-Yin Chen | Marlins | L2 Yrs | 17.8% | 7.1% | 12.1% | 13.3% | Season | 16.5% | 9.1% | 12.4% | 19.1% | Home | 21.1% | 8.7% | 7.7% | 26.4% | L14Days | 18.6% | 4.7% | 12.5% | 18.2% |
| Zack Godley | Diamondbacks | L2 Yrs | 23.5% | 9.2% | 16.2% | 14.2% | Season | 22.5% | 11.6% | 15.2% | 14.5% | Road | 23.9% | 10.9% | 14.6% | 9.8% | L14Days | 25.9% | 13.0% | 21.8% |
Peripherals (Opponent)
| OpTm | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rangers | Road | 25.4% | 8.4% | 12.0% | 17.2% | RH | 25.4% | 9.5% | 14.0% | 22.1% | L7Days | 28.6% | 7.4% | 8.7% | 8.7% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 24.6% | 9.1% | 14.5% | 18.3% | RH | 24.4% | 9.5% | 13.1% | 20.1% | L7Days | 23.8% | 10.0% | 19.1% | 33.5% |
| Mariners | Road | 19.0% | 7.7% | 12.5% | 18.8% | RH | 20.2% | 6.8% | 14.3% | 15.1% | L7Days | 19.7% | 6.1% | 10.9% | 6.5% |
| White Sox | Home | 26.4% | 6.8% | 10.6% | 5.4% | RH | 25.7% | 6.5% | 12.3% | 10.5% | L7Days | 30.0% | 5.9% | 7.9% | -8.4% |
| Reds | Road | 19.5% | 8.7% | 10.9% | 17.5% | RH | 21.2% | 9.6% | 11.7% | 21.3% | L7Days | 22.7% | 10.7% | 15.2% | 19.1% |
| Rockies | Home | 21.7% | 8.5% | 16.8% | 15.0% | RH | 23.3% | 8.1% | 14.5% | 15.0% | L7Days | 17.7% | 7.4% | 15.0% | 25.5% |
| Cubs | Road | 22.6% | 9.5% | 11.9% | 15.7% | LH | 22.2% | 9.7% | 11.2% | 10.9% | L7Days | 23.1% | 9.8% | 7.7% | 8.3% |
| Orioles | Home | 21.9% | 7.5% | 13.6% | 10.0% | LH | 21.6% | 7.6% | 11.8% | 9.3% | L7Days | 21.9% | 7.3% | 13.8% | 13.8% |
| Tigers | Road | 22.7% | 6.8% | 8.6% | 12.9% | LH | 19.9% | 7.2% | 10.3% | 18.7% | L7Days | 25.8% | 7.2% | 8.9% | 18.1% |
| Indians | Home | 18.9% | 9.1% | 15.1% | 27.5% | RH | 20.6% | 8.5% | 14.3% | 24.9% | L7Days | 13.7% | 8.6% | 12.8% | 18.6% |
| Giants | Home | 21.7% | 7.9% | 11.3% | 20.8% | RH | 23.6% | 7.8% | 10.5% | 19.7% | L7Days | 17.3% | 7.7% | 5.1% | 12.5% |
| Dodgers | Home | 22.7% | 9.1% | 14.7% | 16.2% | RH | 21.6% | 9.6% | 14.6% | 17.4% | L7Days | 24.2% | 10.2% | 6.3% | 19.9% |
| Marlins | Home | 21.2% | 8.0% | 9.1% | 18.0% | RH | 22.7% | 7.3% | 11.6% | 17.2% | L7Days | 15.7% | 9.8% | 10.7% | 15.6% |
| Rays | Road | 23.9% | 7.9% | 11.4% | 15.2% | RH | 22.9% | 8.4% | 9.9% | 15.0% | L7Days | 21.8% | 8.7% | 11.6% | 12.4% |
| Royals | Road | 21.2% | 6.6% | 10.5% | 17.4% | RH | 19.7% | 6.7% | 8.3% | 23.0% | L7Days | 29.0% | 5.0% | 13.0% | 27.4% |
| Pirates | Home | 18.9% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 6.6% | RH | 19.5% | 7.9% | 9.8% | 10.1% | L7Days | 19.6% | 9.2% | 5.8% | 6.1% |
| Athletics | Road | 21.8% | 8.0% | 15.1% | 23.1% | LH | 23.4% | 7.9% | 12.5% | 25.3% | L7Days | 24.3% | 7.2% | 12.7% | 11.2% |
| Cardinals | Home | 20.6% | 7.9% | 12.5% | 23.5% | RH | 22.6% | 8.2% | 14.1% | 21.9% | L7Days | 20.8% | 10.2% | 9.1% | 11.9% |
| Astros | Home | 20.5% | 9.8% | 12.4% | 11.1% | RH | 20.0% | 9.6% | 13.2% | 16.3% | L7Days | 17.1% | 9.3% | 11.9% | 11.8% |
| Twins | Home | 21.8% | 9.0% | 10.0% | 19.8% | RH | 21.1% | 8.8% | 11.0% | 20.6% | L7Days | 20.5% | 7.4% | 15.0% | 18.3% |
| Brewers | Road | 23.6% | 7.8% | 15.7% | 12.3% | RH | 25.4% | 8.4% | 16.7% | 18.2% | L7Days | 27.2% | 10.0% | 17.6% | 25.2% |
| Nationals | Road | 22.1% | 9.2% | 14.2% | 15.1% | RH | 21.2% | 9.5% | 14.1% | 13.5% | L7Days | 21.3% | 10.5% | 13.7% | 15.9% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 23.1% | 8.9% | 13.7% | 18.9% | RH | 23.2% | 8.9% | 14.5% | 16.3% | L7Days | 21.1% | 5.7% | 16.1% | 14.5% |
| Red Sox | Home | 17.9% | 8.1% | 14.1% | 17.9% | LH | 23.4% | 7.8% | 12.0% | 12.4% | L7Days | 14.9% | 10.7% | 10.3% | 25.9% |
| Yankees | Road | 23.5% | 8.8% | 16.0% | 16.7% | RH | 23.4% | 9.3% | 16.6% | 18.5% | L7Days | 23.7% | 10.6% | 16.7% | 17.8% |
| Mets | Home | 23.8% | 8.7% | 8.7% | 10.8% | RH | 21.6% | 9.4% | 11.9% | 17.0% | L7Days | 24.5% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 6.0% |
| Padres | Home | 25.0% | 9.2% | 12.2% | 20.1% | RH | 26.0% | 8.1% | 10.0% | 18.0% | L7Days | 28.5% | 7.3% | 17.6% | 29.7% |
| Angels | Road | 18.9% | 8.6% | 12.7% | 17.4% | RH | 20.0% | 8.4% | 13.4% | 19.9% | L7Days | 19.4% | 6.9% | 16.1% | 21.3% |
| Phillies | Road | 25.6% | 10.1% | 11.9% | 8.1% | LH | 22.8% | 10.9% | 11.0% | 7.8% | L7Days | 22.8% | 8.9% | 9.5% | 3.7% |
| Braves | Home | 19.8% | 8.7% | 10.3% | 20.7% | RH | 20.3% | 8.5% | 10.6% | 18.5% | L7Days | 23.6% | 11.3% | 5.9% | 25.4% |
K/SwStr Chart (2018 LG AVG – 21.7 K% – 10.1 SwStr% – 2.15 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Cobb | Orioles | 15.2% | 7.2% | 2.11 | 17.2% | 9.4% | 1.83 |
| Anibal Sanchez | Braves | 23.3% | 9.2% | 2.53 | 25.4% | 9.7% | 2.62 |
| Antonio Senzatela | Rockies | 15.2% | 7.3% | 2.08 | 11.8% | 6.1% | 1.93 |
| Brad Keller | Royals | 14.2% | 8.0% | 1.78 | 11.7% | 6.0% | 1.95 |
| Carlos Martinez | Cardinals | 22.0% | 10.0% | 2.20 | 20.5% | 11.3% | 1.81 |
| Christian Bergman | Mariners | 21.7% | 13.3% | 1.63 | |||
| Clayton Richard | Padres | 17.7% | 9.4% | 1.88 | 13.0% | 7.2% | 1.81 |
| Cole Hamels | Rangers | 23.5% | 12.3% | 1.91 | 24.6% | 13.0% | 1.89 |
| Dallas Keuchel | Astros | 17.8% | 8.7% | 2.05 | 17.2% | 8.6% | 2.00 |
| Domingo German | Yankees | 26.9% | 15.0% | 1.79 | 28.2% | 16.6% | 1.70 |
| Edwin Jackson | Athletics | 21.6% | 8.7% | 2.48 | 21.6% | 8.7% | 2.48 |
| Felix Pena | Angels | 28.1% | 12.9% | 2.18 | 30.1% | 13.3% | 2.26 |
| Jake Arrieta | Phillies | 17.3% | 7.4% | 2.34 | 17.7% | 8.9% | 1.99 |
| Jake Odorizzi | Twins | 24.2% | 11.1% | 2.18 | 26.2% | 10.7% | 2.45 |
| James Shields | White Sox | 16.7% | 9.6% | 1.74 | 17.4% | 8.8% | 1.98 |
| Junior Guerra | Brewers | 23.5% | 9.7% | 2.42 | 26.2% | 10.5% | 2.50 |
| Madison Bumgarner | Giants | 19.6% | 9.0% | 2.18 | 22.2% | 9.2% | 2.41 |
| Matt Harvey | Reds | 17.3% | 8.4% | 2.06 | 17.1% | 9.3% | 1.84 |
| Mike Fiers | Tigers | 17.8% | 8.6% | 2.07 | 18.8% | 8.6% | 2.19 |
| Nathan Eovaldi | Rays | 24.3% | 10.5% | 2.31 | 26.8% | 12.2% | 2.20 |
| Nick Kingham | Pirates | 22.2% | 12.0% | 1.85 | 15.6% | 12.9% | 1.21 |
| Noah Syndergaard | Mets | 28.3% | 15.0% | 1.89 | |||
| Rick Porcello | Red Sox | 22.7% | 8.7% | 2.61 | 24.6% | 7.3% | 3.37 |
| Ryan Borucki | Blue Jays | 19.8% | 9.0% | 2.20 | 19.8% | 9.0% | 2.20 |
| Shane Bieber | Indians | 23.1% | 11.5% | 2.01 | 22.7% | 12.1% | 1.88 |
| Tanner Roark | Nationals | 19.7% | 8.6% | 2.29 | 17.8% | 6.7% | 2.66 |
| Tyler Chatwood | Cubs | 20.0% | 8.3% | 2.41 | 21.0% | 9.7% | 2.16 |
| Walker Buehler | Dodgers | 25.6% | 9.2% | 2.78 | 0.0% | 8.6% | 0.00 |
| Wei-Yin Chen | Marlins | 16.5% | 8.0% | 2.06 | 15.8% | 7.7% | 2.05 |
| Zack Godley | Diamondbacks | 22.5% | 11.2% | 2.01 | 23.9% | 11.3% | 2.12 |
Maybe James Shields sees a few more strikeouts and he has over the last month, but there’s not much here tonight otherwise.
ERA Estimators Chart (2018 LG AVG – 4.18 ERA – 4.16 SIERA – 4.12 xFIP – 4.22 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | Season DRA | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Cobb | Orioles | 6.67 | 4.58 | -2.09 | 6.67 | -2.06 | 5.12 | -1.55 | 6.41 | -0.26 | 5.64 | 4.66 | -0.98 | 4.89 | -0.75 | 5.04 | -0.60 |
| Anibal Sanchez | Braves | 2.72 | 3.98 | 1.26 | 2.72 | 1.42 | 3.88 | 1.16 | 3.25 | 0.53 | 3.07 | 3.69 | 0.62 | 4.01 | 0.94 | 2.89 | -0.18 |
| Antonio Senzatela | Rockies | 5.34 | 4.32 | -1.02 | 5.34 | -0.77 | 4.19 | -1.15 | 3.56 | -1.78 | 4.15 | 4.95 | 0.80 | 4.76 | 0.61 | 4.13 | -0.02 |
| Brad Keller | Royals | 2.52 | 4.62 | 2.10 | 2.52 | 1.86 | 3.38 | 0.86 | 5.85 | 3.33 | 2.81 | 5.12 | 2.31 | 4.51 | 1.70 | 3.36 | 0.55 |
| Carlos Martinez | Cardinals | 3.05 | 4.57 | 1.52 | 3.05 | 1.54 | 3.57 | 0.52 | 5.16 | 2.11 | 4.18 | 4.45 | 0.27 | 4.61 | 0.43 | 3.38 | -0.80 |
| Christian Bergman | Mariners | 0.00 | 3.37 | 3.37 | 0.00 | 3.57 | 1.70 | 1.70 | 4.20 | 4.20 | |||||||
| Clayton Richard | Padres | 4.50 | 4.19 | -0.31 | 4.50 | -0.53 | 4.15 | -0.35 | 4.88 | 0.38 | 4.80 | 4.95 | 0.15 | 4.9 | 0.10 | 4.56 | -0.24 |
| Cole Hamels | Rangers | 4.28 | 4.01 | -0.27 | 4.28 | -0.23 | 5.15 | 0.87 | 5.78 | 1.50 | 5.70 | 3.69 | -2.01 | 3.15 | -2.55 | 4.31 | -1.39 |
| Dallas Keuchel | Astros | 3.95 | 3.95 | 0.00 | 3.95 | -0.29 | 3.79 | -0.16 | 3.67 | -0.28 | 2.59 | 3.98 | 1.39 | 3.61 | 1.02 | 2.62 | 0.03 |
| Domingo German | Yankees | 5.06 | 3.56 | -1.50 | 5.06 | -1.30 | 4.47 | -0.59 | 3.34 | -1.72 | 4.61 | 3.24 | -1.37 | 3.33 | -1.28 | 4.45 | -0.16 |
| Edwin Jackson | Athletics | 2.45 | 4.12 | 1.67 | 2.45 | 1.73 | 3.46 | 1.01 | 5.46 | 3.01 | 2.45 | 4.12 | 1.67 | 4.18 | 1.73 | 3.46 | 1.01 |
| Felix Pena | Angels | 3.63 | 3.08 | -0.55 | 3.63 | -0.59 | 3.40 | -0.23 | 3.56 | -0.07 | 2.75 | 2.98 | 0.23 | 2.74 | -0.01 | 2.32 | -0.43 |
| Jake Arrieta | Phillies | 3.47 | 4.28 | 0.81 | 3.47 | 0.62 | 4.08 | 0.61 | 4.68 | 1.21 | 4.78 | 4.24 | -0.54 | 4.17 | -0.61 | 5.52 | 0.74 |
| Jake Odorizzi | Twins | 4.28 | 4.37 | 0.09 | 4.28 | 0.41 | 4.56 | 0.28 | 5.79 | 1.51 | 4.40 | 4.37 | -0.03 | 4.4 | 0.00 | 3.20 | -1.20 |
| James Shields | White Sox | 4.53 | 5.02 | 0.49 | 4.53 | 0.56 | 4.60 | 0.07 | 4.34 | -0.19 | 3.65 | 4.86 | 1.21 | 5 | 1.35 | 4.59 | 0.94 |
| Junior Guerra | Brewers | 2.79 | 4.19 | 1.40 | 2.79 | 1.52 | 3.87 | 1.08 | 4.43 | 1.64 | 2.96 | 4.15 | 1.19 | 4.41 | 1.45 | 4.34 | 1.38 |
| Madison Bumgarner | Giants | 3.09 | 4.35 | 1.26 | 3.09 | 1.14 | 3.70 | 0.61 | 3.47 | 0.38 | 2.51 | 4.32 | 1.81 | 4.19 | 1.68 | 3.78 | 1.27 |
| Matt Harvey | Reds | 4.80 | 4.43 | -0.37 | 4.80 | -0.32 | 4.58 | -0.22 | 4.82 | 0.02 | 2.48 | 4.25 | 1.77 | 4.37 | 1.89 | 2.68 | 0.20 |
| Mike Fiers | Tigers | 3.65 | 4.43 | 0.78 | 3.65 | 1.11 | 4.66 | 1.01 | 4.54 | 0.89 | 2.87 | 4.42 | 1.55 | 4.86 | 1.99 | 4.12 | 1.25 |
| Nathan Eovaldi | Rays | 3.35 | 3.31 | -0.04 | 3.35 | 0.02 | 4.16 | 0.81 | 3.16 | -0.19 | 3.06 | 3.03 | -0.03 | 3.12 | 0.06 | 3.97 | 0.91 |
| Nick Kingham | Pirates | 4.26 | 3.93 | -0.33 | 4.26 | -0.05 | 4.53 | 0.27 | 4.14 | -0.12 | 6.00 | 4.95 | -1.05 | 5.24 | -0.76 | 9.02 | 3.02 |
| Noah Syndergaard | Mets | 3.06 | 2.97 | -0.09 | 3.06 | -0.28 | 2.57 | -0.49 | 2.03 | -1.03 | |||||||
| Rick Porcello | Red Sox | 3.58 | 3.73 | 0.15 | 3.58 | 0.25 | 3.48 | -0.10 | 4.09 | 0.51 | 3.69 | 3.58 | -0.11 | 3.76 | 0.07 | 3.86 | 0.17 |
| Ryan Borucki | Blue Jays | 2.25 | 4.21 | 1.96 | 2.25 | 1.57 | 2.43 | 0.18 | 4.14 | 1.89 | 2.25 | 4.21 | 1.96 | 3.82 | 1.57 | 2.43 | 0.18 |
| Shane Bieber | Indians | 3.47 | 3.48 | 0.01 | 3.47 | 0.00 | 3.24 | -0.23 | 3.79 | 0.32 | 2.93 | 3.55 | 0.62 | 3.62 | 0.69 | 2.71 | -0.22 |
| Tanner Roark | Nationals | 4.76 | 4.48 | -0.28 | 4.76 | -0.26 | 4.58 | -0.18 | 5.19 | 0.43 | 7.76 | 4.97 | -2.79 | 5.24 | -2.52 | 5.75 | -2.01 |
| Tyler Chatwood | Cubs | 5.01 | 5.82 | 0.81 | 5.01 | 0.26 | 5.05 | 0.04 | 7.17 | 2.16 | 8.27 | 4.79 | -3.48 | 4.46 | -3.81 | 5.16 | -3.11 |
| Walker Buehler | Dodgers | 3.44 | 3.25 | -0.19 | 3.44 | -0.29 | 2.61 | -0.83 | 3.60 | 0.16 | 45.00 | 7.27 | -37.73 | 11.03 | -33.97 | 19.13 | -25.87 |
| Wei-Yin Chen | Marlins | 6.14 | 5.03 | -1.11 | 6.14 | -1.02 | 5.08 | -1.06 | 6.08 | -0.06 | 6.15 | 4.45 | -1.70 | 4.19 | -1.96 | 3.81 | -2.34 |
| Zack Godley | Diamondbacks | 4.80 | 4.36 | -0.44 | 4.80 | -0.65 | 4.42 | -0.38 | 5.24 | 0.44 | 4.40 | 4.37 | -0.03 | 4.1 | -0.30 | 3.86 | -0.54 |
Anibal Sanchez has a .232 BABIP and 81.5 LOB%.
Carlos Martinez has a 3.9 HR/FB and five of his 14.7% of his runs have been unearned.
Domingo German has a 68.5 LOB% despite being above 95% in each of his last two starts. The 17.7 HR/FB is just an unfortunate byproduct of Yankee Stadium. The contact has not been bad.
Mike Fiers has an 80.8 LOB%.
Nathan Eovaldi has little separation from any of his non-FIP estimators because he has an 18.8 HR/FB to go along with his .198 BABIP and 80.3 LOB%.
BABIP & Statcast Chart (2018 LG AVG – .288 BABIP – 43.2 GB% – 21.1 LD% – 10.3 IFFB% – 86.3 Z-Contact% – 36.5 Z-O-Swing%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | GB% | LD% | IFFB% | Z-contact% | Z-O-Swing% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Cobb | Orioles | 0.323 | 0.340 | 0.017 | 50.0% | 17.1% | 8.0% | 91.5% | 35.8% |
| Anibal Sanchez | Braves | 0.279 | 0.232 | -0.047 | 42.5% | 16.9% | 7.7% | 82.9% | 35.2% |
| Antonio Senzatela | Rockies | 0.304 | 0.286 | -0.018 | 54.0% | 15.0% | 12.9% | 85.7% | 42.8% |
| Brad Keller | Royals | 0.309 | 0.278 | -0.031 | 56.5% | 19.4% | 11.1% | 89.8% | 35.8% |
| Carlos Martinez | Cardinals | 0.284 | 0.295 | 0.011 | 48.7% | 18.4% | 15.6% | 86.7% | 33.5% |
| Christian Bergman | Mariners | 0.292 | 0.111 | -0.181 | 50.0% | 5.6% | 0.0% | 84.6% | 32.6% |
| Clayton Richard | Padres | 0.302 | 0.284 | -0.018 | 57.4% | 21.1% | 8.0% | 88.3% | 37.1% |
| Cole Hamels | Rangers | 0.303 | 0.291 | -0.012 | 43.5% | 23.1% | 9.2% | 84.6% | 33.3% |
| Dallas Keuchel | Astros | 0.277 | 0.296 | 0.019 | 55.3% | 21.7% | 9.3% | 88.8% | 34.3% |
| Domingo German | Yankees | 0.280 | 0.279 | -0.001 | 38.2% | 23.0% | 10.1% | 79.3% | 28.6% |
| Edwin Jackson | Athletics | 0.274 | 0.212 | -0.062 | 28.8% | 25.0% | 20.8% | 88.0% | 40.2% |
| Felix Pena | Angels | 0.294 | 0.339 | 0.045 | 51.6% | 17.7% | 15.8% | 86.5% | 30.6% |
| Jake Arrieta | Phillies | 0.297 | 0.278 | -0.019 | 55.5% | 17.1% | 11.3% | 91.1% | 31.5% |
| Jake Odorizzi | Twins | 0.305 | 0.306 | 0.001 | 27.5% | 24.5% | 13.4% | 84.2% | 40.6% |
| James Shields | White Sox | 0.292 | 0.254 | -0.038 | 36.9% | 21.1% | 7.7% | 87.2% | 37.7% |
| Junior Guerra | Brewers | 0.274 | 0.269 | -0.005 | 39.1% | 19.4% | 13.3% | 86.9% | 41.9% |
| Madison Bumgarner | Giants | 0.299 | 0.271 | -0.028 | 43.5% | 21.4% | 15.2% | 90.5% | 29.9% |
| Matt Harvey | Reds | 0.297 | 0.288 | -0.009 | 42.2% | 21.5% | 13.3% | 87.2% | 44.1% |
| Mike Fiers | Tigers | 0.290 | 0.272 | -0.018 | 38.3% | 16.4% | 12.8% | 87.4% | 35.0% |
| Nathan Eovaldi | Rays | 0.266 | 0.198 | -0.068 | 48.8% | 14.0% | 18.8% | 85.5% | 38.0% |
| Nick Kingham | Pirates | 0.301 | 0.256 | -0.045 | 38.6% | 19.7% | 7.3% | 86.5% | 35.6% |
| Noah Syndergaard | Mets | 0.300 | 0.339 | 0.039 | 47.7% | 24.7% | 8.3% | 85.2% | 33.9% |
| Rick Porcello | Red Sox | 0.293 | 0.294 | 0.001 | 45.4% | 19.7% | 8.3% | 90.1% | 35.2% |
| Ryan Borucki | Blue Jays | 0.304 | 0.322 | 0.018 | 44.1% | 27.1% | 17.6% | 89.9% | 32.3% |
| Shane Bieber | Indians | 0.293 | 0.380 | 0.087 | 45.5% | 21.4% | 5.4% | 87.1% | 28.8% |
| Tanner Roark | Nationals | 0.285 | 0.298 | 0.013 | 42.3% | 22.5% | 6.1% | 88.6% | 38.2% |
| Tyler Chatwood | Cubs | 0.272 | 0.301 | 0.029 | 55.1% | 17.8% | 10.3% | 87.2% | 38.3% |
| Walker Buehler | Dodgers | 0.293 | 0.286 | -0.007 | 53.5% | 17.6% | 7.3% | 88.4% | 39.9% |
| Wei-Yin Chen | Marlins | 0.294 | 0.306 | 0.012 | 37.2% | 21.4% | 12.4% | 87.7% | 36.1% |
| Zack Godley | Diamondbacks | 0.284 | 0.327 | 0.043 | 51.4% | 21.0% | 16.5% | 89.4% | 33.2% |
Anibal Sanchez has a 16.9 LD% that may not be sustainable. He has limited hard contact very well, but hasn’t been below 19% since 2010. The Z-Contact is the really impressive thing and the second best mark of his career and perhaps a result of exchanging some sinkers for cutters. The BABIP is probably not sustainable, but with a strong defense behind him and the retention of skills behind it, he could remain around .260-.280 for the rest of the year.
Nathan Eovaldi has a fine profile and defense, but he’s below .200.
Shane Bieber has a high exit velocity, but that doesn’t correlate strongly with BABIP. There’s really nothing supporting the enormous BABIP. This and his high strand rate should both regress significantly.
StatCast Chart (2018 LG AVG – .315 wOBA)
All stats from BaseballSavant.com.
| Player | Team | xwOBA | wOBA-xwOBA | xwOBA H/A | wOBA-xwOBA H/A | xwOBA L30 Days | wOBA-xwOBA L30 Days | Effective Velocity | Exit Velocity | Barrels BBE | 95+ MPH ExV | BBE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Cobb | Orioles | 0.363 | 0.019 | 0.314 | -0.018 | 0.366 | 0.004 | -1.900 | 89.5 | 8.5 | 43.300 | 307 |
| Anibal Sanchez | Braves | 0.289 | -0.014 | 0.294 | 0.020 | 0.274 | -0.011 | 0.000 | 84.5 | 5.6 | 25.900 | 162 |
| Antonio Senzatela | Rockies | 0.343 | -0.028 | 0.316 | 0.009 | 0.365 | -0.128 | 0.300 | 89.8 | 5.0 | 43.600 | 101 |
| Brad Keller | Royals | 0.318 | -0.046 | 0.290 | -0.025 | 0.367 | -0.080 | -0.600 | 88.3 | 3.2 | 33.500 | 188 |
| Carlos Martinez | Cardinals | 0.303 | -0.007 | 0.284 | 0.002 | 0.310 | 0.029 | -1.700 | 84.7 | 2.9 | 28.800 | 240 |
| Christian Bergman | Mariners | 0.305 | -0.228 | 0.480 | -0.007 | -2.400 | ||||||
| Clayton Richard | Padres | 0.340 | -0.024 | 0.312 | 0.011 | 0.357 | -0.044 | -2.000 | 89.4 | 5.0 | 38.400 | 359 |
| Cole Hamels | Rangers | 0.359 | -0.015 | 0.337 | -0.037 | 0.360 | 0.034 | -0.200 | 89 | 9.8 | 38.200 | 296 |
| Dallas Keuchel | Astros | 0.304 | 0.002 | 0.289 | -0.020 | 0.280 | 0.027 | -0.400 | 87.7 | 4.5 | 35.300 | 377 |
| Domingo German | Yankees | 0.303 | 0.016 | 0.309 | 0.048 | 0.289 | 0.046 | -1.100 | 87.5 | 5.4 | 35.300 | 204 |
| Edwin Jackson | Athletics | 0.285 | -0.041 | 0.331 | 0.015 | 0.285 | -0.041 | -0.200 | 84 | 5.6 | 25.900 | 54 |
| Felix Pena | Angels | 0.307 | 0.001 | 0.386 | -0.016 | 0.296 | -0.019 | -1.000 | 91 | 9.7 | 46.800 | 62 |
| Jake Arrieta | Phillies | 0.311 | -0.012 | 0.327 | -0.001 | 0.350 | -0.005 | -0.700 | 87 | 4.1 | 33.100 | 296 |
| Jake Odorizzi | Twins | 0.350 | -0.010 | 0.336 | -0.004 | 0.354 | -0.024 | -1.000 | 88.7 | 9.6 | 40.400 | 270 |
| James Shields | White Sox | 0.355 | -0.049 | 0.337 | -0.032 | 0.344 | -0.038 | 0.700 | 88.2 | 7.8 | 35.900 | 373 |
| Junior Guerra | Brewers | 0.327 | -0.032 | 0.379 | -0.050 | 0.314 | -0.002 | -0.300 | 89 | 6.6 | 40.300 | 258 |
| Madison Bumgarner | Giants | 0.307 | -0.021 | 0.294 | -0.020 | 0.309 | -0.031 | 0.100 | 85.3 | 6.0 | 27.800 | 133 |
| Matt Harvey | Reds | 0.351 | -0.025 | 0.363 | 0.018 | 0.307 | -0.045 | -0.800 | 89.1 | 6.9 | 38.300 | 277 |
| Mike Fiers | Tigers | 0.338 | -0.018 | 0.323 | 0.031 | 0.317 | -0.043 | -0.800 | 88.8 | 9.5 | 38.100 | 315 |
| Nathan Eovaldi | Rays | 0.301 | -0.044 | 0.292 | -0.029 | 0.317 | -0.035 | -1.000 | 88.6 | 8.5 | 36.200 | 130 |
| Nick Kingham | Pirates | 0.333 | -0.026 | 0.280 | -0.030 | 0.380 | -0.017 | -1.300 | 90.4 | 9.0 | 45.900 | 133 |
| Noah Syndergaard | Mets | 0.274 | 0.015 | 0.256 | 0.025 | -0.100 | 86.9 | 3.4 | 32.400 | 176 | ||
| Rick Porcello | Red Sox | 0.313 | -0.021 | 0.329 | 0.013 | 0.356 | -0.050 | -0.500 | 88.2 | 6.3 | 33.500 | 349 |
| Ryan Borucki | Blue Jays | 0.314 | -0.034 | 0.312 | 0.040 | 0.314 | -0.034 | -0.300 | 88.9 | 5.1 | 30.500 | 59 |
| Shane Bieber | Indians | 0.320 | 0.025 | 0.269 | 0.045 | 0.302 | 0.027 | 0.100 | 89.9 | 6.3 | 37.500 | 112 |
| Tanner Roark | Nationals | 0.354 | -0.023 | 0.331 | -0.027 | 0.408 | 0.017 | -1.100 | 87.2 | 6.4 | 35.200 | 330 |
| Tyler Chatwood | Cubs | 0.369 | -0.025 | 0.329 | -0.027 | 0.364 | 0.003 | -0.500 | 87.2 | 6.8 | 34.200 | 222 |
| Walker Buehler | Dodgers | 0.273 | -0.015 | 0.279 | -0.021 | 0.813 | 0.005 | -0.400 | 88.5 | 4.2 | 30.100 | 143 |
| Wei-Yin Chen | Marlins | 0.320 | 0.033 | 0.271 | -0.007 | 0.312 | 0.022 | -0.500 | 86.5 | 4.5 | 32.300 | 220 |
| Zack Godley | Diamondbacks | 0.360 | -0.021 | 0.329 | -0.008 | 0.332 | -0.007 | -1.300 | 88.4 | 8.6 | 36.200 | 290 |
Anibal Sanchez has the fourth lowest xwOBA, second lowest aEV and is tied for the lowest 95+ mph EV. Over the last month, his .274 xwOBA is best on the board.
Carlos Martinez has been one of the top contact managers on the board, though his Fangraphs contact authority numbers don’t coincide. Further good news is an xwOBA far below his actual wOBA allowed over the last month.
Edwin Jackson has the lowest aEV on the board through three starts.
Felix Pena can maintain an xwOBA around .300 if he continues to miss bats at an elite rate while being hit hard.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top few. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
Let’s return to the original method today, as the discrepancies don’t appear to be as large as they’ve been the rest of the week. Here’s the thing though: I can’t really point to a single guy and say he’s your top pitcher today. There are a few who might be, but nobody stands out. We’re looking at a lot of marginal pitchers in decent spots. These guys are being graded on the curve because you have to use pitchers tonight. No getting around it.
Value Tier One
Nathan Eovaldi has done some interesting things in recent starts. I’m going to take an early leap here because I might not otherwise have a top pitcher if I don’t. It’s aggressive and I’m not sure it’ll work out the way I hope it might because it’s not a great spot, but I like what I see in the fastball location this year. For years, we’ve been wondering how a guy with his stuff couldn’t miss bats. Perhaps the Rays have found the key to unlocking the potential.
Value Tier Two
Shane Bieber is in a terrible spot, but it’s hard to say he’s still not worth more than $8K here.
Dallas Keuchel isn’t going to miss many bats here, but should keep the Tigers grounded and go deep into the game against an offense that’s not very dangerous.
Value Tier Three
Anibal Sanchez has been a quality arm for the Braves and I’m going to give him some credit beyond his estimators due to the contact management and we may even be able to credit it to the increased usage of an individual pitch (cutter .258 xwOBA, 84.4 mph aEV). This healthier version of the Diamondbacks are probably better than an 82 wRC+ team against RHP, but he still has some value below $8K.
Clayton Richard has been terrible over the last month, but is still too cheap on DraftKings for someone who goes at least six innings almost every time out. If there’s an argument towards splitting this section up between sites again today, he would be it with his board topping $2K price gap between sites. The opportunity for a quality start still may make him playable for $7.6K more, but I’d really struggle with that notion considering recent developments.
Felix Pena seems like he’s in a prime spot for it to all fall apart against a good offense, but the strikeouts have been legitimate thus far and he still costs less than $7K. It’s kind of tough to get away from the few high strikeout arms we have tonight.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Edwin Jackson is in a very favorable spot at a low price ($6.1K on DK). That’s the only site where I’d consider him tonight.
Carlos Martinez is not in a great spot and has neither shown the upside or consistency one might have expected from him this year, but it still seems to be in him at times and he does pitch in a favorable environment (unless it’s 100 degrees – see Kevin’s forecast for tonight) at a reasonable price.
Domingo German is in a terrible spot, but it’s kind of tough to completely punt a guy with strikeout upsides for less than $8K on this board.
Mike Fiers is probably not someone I want to use or even will, but I’m just saying that the Astros haven’t been great, he hasn’t been terrible and the park may be the best on the board for less than $7.5K.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.