Advanced Stats - Pitching: Friday, May 11th
We’re an afternoon affair at Wrigley away from a full Friday night slate tonight. It’s a balanced board where the top, middle and bottom of rotations can be found, including probably three top five pitchers in the league currently. Let’s attempt to find some alternatives too.
The updated template may not be perfect yet in terms of shading (conditional formatting), but each attempt has been an improvement. We’ll get there eventually. Or maybe it should remain the running joke throughout the season. Columns are sortable by clicking on the headers if there’s any confusion.
As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, ownership projections and the weather forecast as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. All of these things are available right here on the site.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB% L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Sanchez | Blue Jays | -4.5 | 4.51 | 5.9 | 52.5% | 1.04 | 5.03 | 5.93 | Red Sox | 104 | 121 | 110 |
| Andrew Suarez | Giants | -4.6 | 2.90 | 5.7 | 53.3% | 0.98 | 2.69 | 3.44 | Pirates | 120 | 120 | 135 |
| Brandon McCarthy | Braves | 9.6 | 4.58 | 5.1 | 42.6% | 0.88 | 4.28 | 4.20 | Marlins | 81 | 66 | 72 |
| Brandon Woodruff | Brewers | 1.2 | 4.43 | 5.1 | 48.4% | 1.33 | 3.99 | 0.12 | Rockies | 69 | 66 | 82 |
| Carson Fulmer | White Sox | -3.5 | 5.25 | 4.2 | 32.6% | 1.01 | 5.55 | 5.39 | Cubs | 112 | 105 | 131 |
| Chad Bettis | Rockies | 2.8 | 4.57 | 5.7 | 49.7% | 1.33 | 4.09 | 4.70 | Brewers | 86 | 91 | 81 |
| Chris Sale | Red Sox | 3.3 | 2.92 | 6.8 | 39.6% | 1.04 | 2.58 | 3.37 | Blue Jays | 104 | 81 | 55 |
| Cole Hamels | Rangers | 0.9 | 4.32 | 6.2 | 47.5% | 0.87 | 4.65 | 3.94 | Astros | 84 | 112 | 143 |
| Dan Straily | Marlins | -2 | 4.61 | 5.6 | 32.7% | 0.88 | 5.05 | 8.16 | Braves | 118 | 110 | 81 |
| Eric Lauer | Padres | -4.2 | 4.44 | 4.7 | 40.4% | 0.91 | 3.34 | 3.70 | Cardinals | 100 | 85 | 76 |
| Jake Arrieta | Phillies | -5.3 | 4.14 | 5.9 | 49.1% | 0.97 | 4.03 | 5.54 | Mets | 89 | 102 | 85 |
| Jake Faria | Rays | -5.5 | 4.40 | 5.5 | 37.7% | 0.99 | 4.62 | 3.45 | Orioles | 88 | 76 | 101 |
| Jameson Taillon | Pirates | -1.3 | 3.98 | 5.5 | 50.3% | 0.98 | 3.54 | 4.78 | Giants | 82 | 93 | 105 |
| Jason Hammel | Royals | -0.8 | 4.55 | 5.7 | 39.8% | 1.06 | 4.98 | 5.30 | Indians | 113 | 96 | 75 |
| Justin Verlander | Astros | 2.3 | 3.56 | 6.5 | 32.8% | 0.87 | 4.22 | 2.16 | Rangers | 93 | 82 | 81 |
| Kendall Graveman | Athletics | -2.2 | 4.65 | 5.8 | 51.8% | 1.03 | 4.81 | Yankees | 123 | 112 | 103 | |
| Kenta Maeda | Dodgers | 0.8 | 3.67 | 5.2 | 41.4% | 0.90 | 3.39 | 4.51 | Reds | 86 | 85 | 98 |
| Kevin Gausman | Orioles | 1.5 | 4.14 | 5.8 | 43.4% | 0.99 | 4.05 | 4.40 | Rays | 103 | 95 | 87 |
| Lance Lynn | Twins | -4.9 | 4.86 | 5.5 | 44.8% | 0.93 | 4.69 | 4.34 | Angels | 105 | 115 | 159 |
| Luke Weaver | Cardinals | -2.3 | 3.71 | 5.0 | 42.2% | 0.91 | 3.21 | 4.51 | Padres | 94 | 82 | 76 |
| Marco Gonzales | Mariners | -4.3 | 3.88 | 4.5 | 44.3% | 1.07 | 3.64 | 3.75 | Tigers | 98 | 108 | 112 |
| Matt Boyd | Tigers | 4.69 | 5.3 | 37.0% | 1.07 | 5.10 | 3.73 | Mariners | 117 | 114 | 119 | |
| Matt Harvey | Reds | -6.4 | 4.96 | 5.1 | 42.4% | 0.90 | 5.06 | 8.74 | Dodgers | 96 | 106 | 97 |
| Matt Koch | Diamondbacks | 8.7 | 4.67 | 5.7 | 46.4% | 1.17 | 4.71 | 4.71 | Nationals | 103 | 106 | 102 |
| Max Scherzer | Nationals | -10.8 | 2.83 | 6.6 | 34.1% | 1.17 | 3.23 | 1.87 | Diamondbacks | 89 | 88 | 70 |
| Sonny Gray | Yankees | 5 | 4.27 | 5.6 | 52.0% | 1.03 | 4.13 | 4.21 | Athletics | 104 | 101 | 54 |
| Steven Matz | Mets | -0.2 | 4.01 | 5.5 | 48.6% | 0.97 | 4.90 | 3.57 | Phillies | 114 | 104 | 133 |
| Trevor Bauer | Indians | 16.4 | 3.99 | 6.0 | 47.5% | 1.06 | 3.20 | 2.97 | Royals | 98 | 92 | 106 |
| Tyler Chatwood | Cubs | 8.1 | 4.87 | 5.6 | 57.9% | 1.01 | 4.18 | 5.58 | White Sox | 106 | 103 | 111 |
| Tyler Skaggs | Angels | 5 | 4.23 | 5.2 | 44.1% | 0.93 | 4.29 | 2.67 | Twins | 101 | 107 | 118 |
Andrew Suarez has struck out 18 of 65 batters, but that’s not something that should be counted on going forward due to the 7.7 SwStr%. That could increase too. It’s been just three starts, but he hasn’t been a high strikeout guy in the minors. Regression in his K% would likely hit his ERA and estimators too. That said, he has a 3.1 BB% and has shown good control in the minors. He has 53.3 GB% higher than he’s previously shown in the minors, but that’s a stat that quickly stabilizes. Without reading too deep into a small sample, he’s a left-handed pitcher in a park that punishes right-handed power. Now, the Pirates have an early season 120 wRC+ at home and against LHP, but they’re HR/FB is double against southpaws (16.9) what it is at home (8.2).
Brandon McCarthy has allowed two or fewer runs in four of his seven starts and even has an xFIP below four, but his batted ball profile is just about as horrible as his BABIP suggests it is and he has only completed six innings once. All that said generally pushes him off to the side, but the Marlins (top park adjusted matchup on the board?) bring him back into our awareness (63 wRC+, 17.4 K-BB% vs RHP).
Chris Sale had his worst start of the season (6 IP – 3 ER – 2 HR – 2 BB – 4 K – 25 BF) in his first visit to Toronto. It was the only time in his last four starts he failed to complete seven innings. He struck out a season high 12 last time out. His 85.4 mph aEV is lowest on the board. The Blue Jays are one of the coldest offenses on the board (19.5 K-BB% last seven days).
Eric Lauer is not a prospect of much note, despite the young age (22). His Fangraphs page has a 40 Future Value tag attached. He has a 10% walk rate with a 7.2 SwStr% through three starts. However, four of those seven walks came in his first start. His last two have not been that bad, including six shutout innings against the Dodgers last time out. Some interesting small sample things we’ll talk briefly about below, but he’s not in a terrible spot against the Cardinals at home, despite their 12.4 BB% vs LHP and his minor league strikeout rates have been above average at every stop.
Jameson Taillon has been all over the place this year in terms of results. He has three or fewer strikeouts in four of his last five with five or fewer innings in three of his last four, but remains a quality contact manager on most nights at the least with a 55.5 GB% this season and only two starts above a 25% hard hit rate. We’ve learned in his short major league career so far that he probably is not going to have the strikeout potential he had in the minors (unless he’s traded to the Astros), but he misses enough bats to be useful at the right price (9+ SwStr% in three of last four starts) and more than he has recently, especially in combination with the strong contact management. The Giants have been better recently, but lean mostly right-handed and have an 18.8 K-BB% vs RHP (20.1 K-BB% on the road).
Justin Verlander is one of the big three, who combines innings eating with an elite strikeout rate (fewer than eight strikeouts just twice, fewer than six innings by just a single out once). His .206 xwOBA over the last month (from Monday’s date) is best on the board by 40 points. He also has one of the top park adjusted and highest strikeout matchups on the board (Rangers 82 wRC+, 18.3 K-BB% vs RHP).
Kenta Maeda has seen at least three runs come across the board (not all earned) in six innings or less in four of his last seven starts. In fact, he’s yet to record an out in the seventh inning this year and has exceeded 90 pitches just twice. That said, he’s struck out two twice, seven twice and 10 twice. A 29.7 K% and 14.1 SwStr% are both second best on the board. Contact management hasn’t been as exceptional as last season, but he still has an xwOBA below .300. The Reds don’t strike out a lot (20.8% vs RHP), but should be a strong run prevention matchup in this park, potentially allowing him to get through six.
Luke Weaver has allowed at least four runs in four straight starts and has only completed five innings once in that span. While his swinging strike rate has been above 12% in three starts, it’s been below 8% in each of his other four starts. His Z-O-Swing% is surprisingly not an aberration. It was the same 44% last season. His Z-Contact% has gone from better than average to just average this season. That said, he’s sitting on better than average contact authority rates (aEV, 95+ mph EV). He’s been bad, but his O-Swing% has actually been above his season rate in each of his last four starts. There’s some positive regression in store here and he’s in the highest strikeout rate upside matchup on the board (Padres 27.1% vs RHP) and a pretty damn strong park adjusted overall matchup as well in San Diego.
Marco Gonzales has struck out seven or more in three of his last four starts and has thrown six innings in three straight. He’s not throwing harder and he’s not missing more bats. In fact, his 25.5 K% is not in line with an 8.9 SwStr%, but something is up. He’s mixing his pitches differently. He’s gone away from his traditional fastball over the last month in favor of a new cutter along with more changeups and curveballs. The result is a Z-O-Swing below 30% in three of his last four starts. He’s getting “uncomfortable swing”. The Tigers don’t appear a favorable matchup by the numbers (wRC+ or peripherals listed) this year, but they have made some bad pitchers look very competent this year.
Max Scherzer is the last easy one. He has no fewer than seven strikeouts in a start with a season high 15 and 111 pitches thrown last time out. Not a concern though because he’s thrown at least 99 every time out. It’s only his season high by one pitch. The Diamondbacks have a 24.6 K% vs RHP and just an 88 wRC+ as well.
Trevor Bauer is not near the big three today, but has been turning himself into an All Star over the last calendar year. That process has continued this year with at least six strikeouts in every start and only that few once. He’s pitched two outs into the seventh or longer in five of seven starts. The Royals beat up some bad Baltimore pitching, but the real problem they pose is the lowest split strikeout rate on the board (16% vs RHP).
Tyler Skaggs has struck out 15 of his last 44 batters and has allowed more than two runs in just one start so far. He’s also gone more than 5.1 innings just once in his last six. You might think the Angels are being cautious with an injury prone young arm, but that’s not the case. His 93 pitches last time out are a season low. It’s not the walk rate (6.9%). One other guess might be foul balls? The Twins are a bit tricky. They’ve been good vs lefties via wRC+, but are down Miguel Sano and the peripherals tell a different story (25.3 K%, 8.0 HR/FB, 5.2 Hard-Soft%). It’s also a pitcher friendly park.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is usually extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm.
League AVG (.299 BABIP – 72.1 LOB% – 14.2 HR/FB)
Jake Faria (.237 – 72.2% – 9.8) has only reached the six inning mark against Detroit and Texas, which comprise two of his three starts above five strikeouts as well. He lasted 4.1 innings in his first start in Baltimore this season. His swinging strike rate has been double digits in four starts, but below 7% in each of his other three. Baltimore can be unfriendly to extreme fly ball pitchers, as one found out yesterday. It’s a high upside spot, but not necessarily a high expectation one considering workload concerns and a price tag that reaches $8.3K on DraftKings.
Jake Arrieta (.228 – 61.4% – 7.1) may be trying to get every batter to hit the ball on the ground because he’s not getting any swings and misses. In fact, he hasn’t exceeded two strikeouts in any of his three starts following 10 against the Pirates. Weak ground balls are fine and wonderful. He has an xwOBA below .300, but they can only take you so far in DFS. You need some strikeouts.
Kevin Gausman (.244 – 87.9% – 17) throws a lot of fastballs. Not as many as in previous seasons actually (from above 60% to 58%), but still a lot. The velocity is down two miles per hour on that pitch this year, perhaps limiting his upside a bit more against a team he may not have a ton of upside against with heavy fastball usage. The ERA improvement is on fluky grounds this year, but he’s still above $8K.
Matt Boyd (.248 – 78.2% – 5.5) has a career .306 BABIP, 69.9 LOB% and 12.1 HR/FB. He has increased his slider usage at the expense of his fastball, which can be a positive move, but his strikeout rate has not increased and that fastball has lost over two miles per hour of velocity. That said, his 22.2% 95+ mph EV is best on the board, but I just don’t see anything much different in his plate discipline numbers either. Terrible matchup against the Mariners too.
Matt Koch (.214 – 87.7% – 13) is ALL smoke and mirrors.
Chad Bettis (.224 – 89.4% – 9.3)
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Sonny Gray saw his velocity shoot up in his last start. Consequently, it was his best outing of the season with seven strikeouts in six innings of two run ball against the Tribe. That said, he has just a 7.5 SwStr%, 46.2 Z-O-Swing% and 40 Hard-Soft% in that start. I don’t immediately see anything other than him throwing harder than he has in years for one start. I could be completely wrong on him against a team he likely has some motivation against. Also a team with a 24.4 K% vs RHP, but they’re 24.9 Hard-Soft% is even higher. Quite dangerous for a guy with a 90 mph aEV. Go ahead and throw him in a GPP lineup or two for less than $7K, but there’s just as much chance he posts a negative score as a huge one.
Steven Matz has a massive 3.51 K/SwStr, but has had at least a 9 SwStr% in half of his starts and, wait…what’s this…he threw is slider (8%) for the first time this year in one of his best starts. Yes, god damn it! Sorry, I get excited. This is his swing and miss pitch which helped drive the prospect hype. He abandoned it last season believing it made him more injury prone. Perhaps he feared losing his spot in the rotation more. I’m not on board yet against a dangerous Phillies offense against southpaws with a predominantly right-handed lineup that may mean fewer sliders, but that 8% was against the Rockies, another predominantly right-handed lineup. This might be interesting, if not today, then in future starts.
Cole Hamels has allowed just two of his nine HRs this year over his last four starts, but he’s also missing fewer bats than he did to start the season over this span. The matchup in Houston removes most interest, even in one of the most negative run environments in baseball. However…gulp…he costs below $7K on DraftKings, which is nearly enough to make one reconsider potential upside in GPPs. Never trust this man though.
Aaron Sanchez struck out a season high eight Red Sox the one time he’s faced them this season, but we still have to consider this one of the worst park adjusted and lowest upside matchups on the board (Red Sox (121 wRC+, 18.3 K%, 14.8 HR/FB, 22 Hard-Soft% vs RHP).
Lance Lynn is actually two points above his career SwStr% with his highest K% since 2012. He’s nearly underpriced on DraftKings against a predominantly right-handed lineup. He has a significant platoon split with a career .279 wOBA against RHBs. But one of these is the best RHB in the game and another is really good too. Meanwhile, he did not walk a Chicago (AL) batter last time out, bringing his season walk rate all the way down to 16.3%. That said, his .375 BABIP will improve and probably his 20.8 HR/FB too.
Dan Straily …OOF – this season has not started well for him.
Matt Harvey will probably throw six shutout innings.
Peripherals (Pitcher)
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Sanchez | Blue Jays | L2 Yrs | 18.3% | 9.2% | 11.4% | 11.1% | Season | 15.3% | 12.0% | 8.3% | 10.2% | Home | 17.7% | 11.4% | 25.0% | 4.2% | L14Days | 10.2% | 14.3% | 14.3% | 33.3% |
| Andrew Suarez | Giants | L2 Yrs | 27.7% | 3.1% | 17.6% | 40.0% | Season | 27.7% | 3.1% | 17.6% | 40.0% | Road | 27.3% | 4.6% | 53.3% | L14Days | 24.4% | 4.4% | 7.7% | 37.5% | |
| Brandon McCarthy | Braves | L2 Yrs | 20.1% | 9.3% | 7.8% | 7.9% | Season | 17.3% | 8.3% | 19.2% | 7.8% | Road | 16.8% | 7.6% | 12.0% | L14Days | 17.8% | 8.9% | 16.7% | 6.1% | |
| Brandon Woodruff | Brewers | L2 Yrs | 18.7% | 7.1% | 11.3% | 6.7% | Season | 24.4% | 4.9% | 12.5% | 25.0% | Road | 21.7% | 5.4% | 7.4% | L14Days | 57.1% | 33.4% | |||
| Carson Fulmer | White Sox | L2 Yrs | 18.4% | 12.2% | 14.3% | 12.4% | Season | 17.9% | 11.2% | 15.6% | 17.2% | Road | 14.4% | 10.6% | 3.2% | 7.8% | L14Days | 19.2% | 10.6% | 21.1% | 21.2% |
| Chad Bettis | Rockies | L2 Yrs | 16.4% | 7.4% | 13.1% | 13.9% | Season | 15.8% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 17.8% | Home | 16.0% | 4.7% | 15.8% | 10.6% | L14Days | 13.5% | 3.9% | 7.1% | 13.9% |
| Chris Sale | Red Sox | L2 Yrs | 31.6% | 5.1% | 12.6% | 12.7% | Season | 32.3% | 5.6% | 11.4% | -3.4% | Road | 37.4% | 5.2% | 10.2% | 8.8% | L14Days | 26.8% | 6.1% | 15.8% | -8.0% |
| Cole Hamels | Rangers | L2 Yrs | 21.2% | 8.7% | 13.8% | 21.1% | Season | 25.5% | 8.8% | 20.0% | 33.3% | Road | 19.1% | 8.4% | 13.6% | 18.3% | L14Days | 26.0% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 41.9% |
| Dan Straily | Marlins | L2 Yrs | 21.0% | 8.6% | 12.8% | 16.6% | Season | 7.7% | 20.5% | 25.0% | 39.3% | Home | 20.9% | 10.1% | 11.4% | 17.3% | L14Days | 7.7% | 20.5% | 25.0% | 39.3% |
| Eric Lauer | Padres | L2 Yrs | 21.4% | 10.0% | 6.7% | 29.2% | Season | 21.4% | 10.0% | 6.7% | 29.2% | Home | 18.5% | 3.7% | 19.0% | L14Days | 23.5% | 5.9% | 30.6% | ||
| Jake Arrieta | Phillies | L2 Yrs | 22.7% | 8.7% | 12.6% | 5.9% | Season | 16.1% | 8.8% | 7.1% | -1.9% | Home | 22.5% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 1.9% | L14Days | 9.8% | 9.8% | 10.0% | 6.1% |
| Jake Faria | Rays | L2 Yrs | 22.8% | 9.4% | 11.1% | 14.6% | Season | 20.8% | 11.1% | 9.8% | 22.7% | Road | 23.2% | 10.2% | 12.9% | 11.3% | L14Days | 22.2% | 4.4% | 10.0% | |
| Jameson Taillon | Pirates | L2 Yrs | 20.7% | 6.4% | 12.6% | 10.2% | Season | 19.4% | 7.1% | 14.3% | 3.6% | Home | 21.3% | 6.7% | 14.3% | 6.7% | L14Days | 12.8% | 8.5% | -2.7% | |
| Jason Hammel | Royals | L2 Yrs | 18.4% | 6.5% | 11.8% | 17.8% | Season | 12.8% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 32.4% | Road | 17.7% | 6.2% | 11.3% | 17.8% | L14Days | 12.7% | 7.3% | 11.8% | 50.0% |
| Justin Verlander | Astros | L2 Yrs | 28.2% | 7.0% | 10.3% | 12.3% | Season | 35.0% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.1% | Home | 26.7% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 13.5% | L14Days | 42.3% | 5.8% | 3.8% | |
| Kendall Graveman | Athletics | L2 Yrs | 14.2% | 6.5% | 12.1% | 12.3% | Season | 17.2% | 8.2% | 25.9% | 11.1% | Road | 15.9% | 9.9% | 16.7% | 11.7% | L14Days | ||||
| Kenta Maeda | Dodgers | L2 Yrs | 25.7% | 6.7% | 13.8% | 10.8% | Season | 29.7% | 8.0% | 11.5% | 25.9% | Home | 27.4% | 5.4% | 10.0% | 6.3% | L14Days | 21.7% | 10.9% | 20.0% | 25.8% |
| Kevin Gausman | Orioles | L2 Yrs | 22.3% | 7.6% | 15.8% | 14.4% | Season | 20.0% | 6.7% | 17.0% | 17.6% | Home | 24.1% | 9.1% | 19.4% | 16.2% | L14Days | 18.2% | 9.1% | 7.7% | 22.5% |
| Lance Lynn | Twins | L2 Yrs | 20.3% | 11.0% | 15.0% | 8.8% | Season | 23.4% | 16.3% | 20.8% | 14.2% | Road | 20.8% | 11.5% | 17.2% | 13.3% | L14Days | 21.6% | 9.8% | 18.2% | 14.3% |
| Luke Weaver | Cardinals | L2 Yrs | 26.0% | 7.7% | 13.8% | 9.9% | Season | 20.7% | 9.7% | 5.0% | 9.4% | Road | 27.3% | 7.1% | 10.3% | 7.7% | L14Days | 18.2% | 6.8% | -9.1% | |
| Marco Gonzales | Mariners | L2 Yrs | 21.0% | 5.1% | 17.1% | 11.9% | Season | 25.5% | 4.0% | 16.0% | 20.2% | Road | 20.5% | 6.7% | 17.6% | 16.3% | L14Days | 21.6% | 3.9% | 18.2% | 18.4% |
| Matt Boyd | Tigers | L2 Yrs | 18.9% | 7.7% | 10.7% | 12.0% | Season | 17.9% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 1.9% | Home | 17.7% | 7.4% | 8.9% | 13.9% | L14Days | 22.6% | 3.8% | ||
| Matt Harvey | Reds | L2 Yrs | 16.4% | 8.7% | 16.6% | 10.9% | Season | 16.3% | 7.3% | 20.7% | 26.9% | Road | 15.0% | 9.8% | 19.4% | 12.5% | L14Days | 5.0% | 20.0% | 22.2% | 20.0% |
| Matt Koch | Diamondbacks | L2 Yrs | 15.8% | 7.0% | 8.7% | 16.4% | Season | 17.2% | 7.1% | 13.0% | 27.4% | Home | 14.5% | 7.3% | 18.8% | 28.8% | L14Days | 14.1% | 7.0% | 13.3% | 27.7% |
| Max Scherzer | Nationals | L2 Yrs | 34.4% | 6.4% | 10.0% | 8.2% | Season | 40.0% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 8.6% | Road | 34.9% | 7.3% | 9.2% | 10.7% | L14Days | 46.0% | 8.0% | 11.1% | 18.2% |
| Sonny Gray | Yankees | L2 Yrs | 20.6% | 8.6% | 15.4% | 14.1% | Season | 18.9% | 13.2% | 9.4% | 19.7% | Home | 21.9% | 9.7% | 14.6% | 10.5% | L14Days | 22.5% | 10.2% | 12.5% | 33.3% |
| Steven Matz | Mets | L2 Yrs | 21.2% | 6.5% | 16.9% | 12.1% | Season | 26.7% | 9.5% | 24.0% | 23.6% | Road | 16.1% | 7.8% | 10.2% | 2.9% | L14Days | 23.8% | 4.8% | 16.7% | 33.3% |
| Trevor Bauer | Indians | L2 Yrs | 23.9% | 8.4% | 12.9% | 16.1% | Season | 28.0% | 9.8% | 7.1% | 18.2% | Home | 27.0% | 6.3% | 16.5% | 19.5% | L14Days | 38.0% | 12.0% | 12.5% | 36.0% |
| Tyler Chatwood | Cubs | L2 Yrs | 18.9% | 12.9% | 15.8% | 9.6% | Season | 22.1% | 18.6% | 4.2% | 14.3% | Home | 19.8% | 12.5% | 22.4% | 11.4% | L14Days | 19.2% | 17.0% | 28.6% | |
| Tyler Skaggs | Angels | L2 Yrs | 22.2% | 8.3% | 11.6% | 14.0% | Season | 24.4% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 23.0% | Home | 19.7% | 6.8% | 15.3% | 18.9% | L14Days | 34.1% | 6.8% | 12.5% |
Peripherals (Opponent)
| OpTm | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Red Sox | Road | 20.7% | 7.1% | 16.1% | 20.4% | RH | 18.3% | 8.0% | 14.8% | 22.0% | L7Days | 23.9% | 5.2% | 25.5% | 21.2% |
| Pirates | Home | 16.8% | 10.6% | 8.2% | 5.8% | LH | 20.5% | 9.2% | 16.9% | 7.0% | L7Days | 18.9% | 10.0% | 15.6% | 13.5% |
| Marlins | Home | 21.0% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 9.9% | RH | 24.3% | 6.9% | 9.9% | 9.0% | L7Days | 20.6% | 7.8% | 13.0% | 8.3% |
| Rockies | Home | 26.1% | 9.6% | 15.6% | 4.9% | RH | 24.0% | 8.9% | 14.6% | 5.6% | L7Days | 25.2% | 9.9% | 13.3% | 5.8% |
| Cubs | Home | 20.3% | 7.5% | 12.3% | 7.7% | RH | 20.9% | 7.6% | 11.1% | 9.0% | L7Days | 17.0% | 6.2% | 16.9% | 23.2% |
| Brewers | Road | 19.5% | 7.7% | 12.1% | 10.1% | RH | 24.2% | 8.4% | 14.5% | 14.3% | L7Days | 26.4% | 9.0% | 12.5% | 19.2% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 22.9% | 8.8% | 15.9% | 16.2% | LH | 20.6% | 8.8% | 11.8% | 16.5% | L7Days | 24.5% | 5.0% | 10.0% | 17.8% |
| Astros | Home | 24.1% | 8.3% | 12.9% | 10.7% | LH | 22.2% | 7.5% | 13.9% | 15.5% | L7Days | 14.5% | 8.1% | 12.7% | 25.8% |
| Braves | Road | 19.6% | 8.3% | 13.8% | 12.9% | RH | 20.3% | 9.0% | 11.7% | 13.2% | L7Days | 19.0% | 7.1% | 11.3% | 29.5% |
| Cardinals | Road | 24.9% | 9.7% | 17.6% | 14.3% | LH | 22.5% | 12.4% | 12.7% | 15.7% | L7Days | 25.2% | 11.1% | 13.3% | 27.5% |
| Mets | Road | 23.8% | 9.8% | 12.6% | 16.8% | RH | 22.8% | 9.5% | 12.3% | 15.3% | L7Days | 25.9% | 7.1% | 13.2% | 17.5% |
| Orioles | Home | 20.9% | 8.4% | 11.3% | 11.5% | RH | 25.1% | 7.2% | 11.4% | 13.3% | L7Days | 24.4% | 7.3% | 17.0% | 27.1% |
| Giants | Road | 27.1% | 7.0% | 11.3% | 19.1% | RH | 25.8% | 7.0% | 10.4% | 19.3% | L7Days | 28.9% | 7.4% | 11.8% | 18.1% |
| Indians | Home | 20.7% | 8.4% | 14.2% | 26.0% | RH | 24.5% | 7.7% | 15.7% | 21.7% | L7Days | 32.6% | 5.1% | 15.9% | 29.1% |
| Rangers | Road | 26.1% | 6.0% | 18.6% | 22.0% | RH | 26.2% | 7.9% | 15.1% | 24.0% | L7Days | 33.8% | 8.0% | 24.3% | 20.8% |
| Yankees | Home | 22.8% | 13.1% | 17.2% | 20.9% | RH | 24.0% | 11.2% | 14.4% | 17.6% | L7Days | 22.7% | 13.8% | 13.0% | 24.1% |
| Reds | Road | 19.9% | 8.6% | 6.1% | 15.0% | RH | 20.5% | 9.3% | 9.8% | 15.6% | L7Days | 18.6% | 8.5% | 12.9% | 17.6% |
| Rays | Road | 22.8% | 8.5% | 11.7% | 10.3% | RH | 22.2% | 8.5% | 9.2% | 15.8% | L7Days | 21.3% | 12.0% | 7.0% | 17.4% |
| Angels | Home | 20.9% | 8.5% | 14.9% | 20.8% | RH | 19.1% | 7.3% | 14.1% | 19.1% | L7Days | 17.4% | 9.5% | 21.1% | 12.2% |
| Padres | Home | 25.9% | 9.3% | 12.2% | 19.1% | RH | 27.1% | 8.5% | 10.6% | 15.3% | L7Days | 25.8% | 10.2% | 10.0% | 19.4% |
| Tigers | Home | 17.6% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 25.0% | LH | 18.2% | 8.8% | 10.3% | 21.9% | L7Days | 20.7% | 6.6% | 10.0% | 24.8% |
| Mariners | Road | 17.7% | 8.2% | 12.7% | 22.4% | LH | 18.4% | 8.5% | 10.3% | 13.9% | L7Days | 20.7% | 10.6% | 12.5% | 15.6% |
| Dodgers | Home | 23.9% | 9.2% | 10.2% | 10.6% | RH | 21.9% | 10.2% | 11.0% | 12.2% | L7Days | 24.3% | 11.5% | 8.9% | 16.3% |
| Nationals | Road | 20.9% | 10.6% | 14.8% | 18.0% | RH | 20.1% | 11.5% | 15.1% | 13.7% | L7Days | 21.5% | 12.1% | 16.4% | 21.4% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 25.1% | 10.6% | 9.5% | 19.4% | RH | 24.6% | 11.0% | 11.0% | 13.4% | L7Days | 25.8% | 10.3% | 10.0% | 6.8% |
| Athletics | Road | 25.2% | 7.2% | 17.4% | 26.5% | RH | 24.4% | 9.7% | 13.6% | 24.9% | L7Days | 23.1% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 20.5% |
| Phillies | Home | 25.2% | 11.1% | 15.8% | 15.9% | LH | 22.2% | 13.3% | 12.8% | 17.4% | L7Days | 25.5% | 10.1% | 22.0% | 18.2% |
| Royals | Road | 18.8% | 7.5% | 11.4% | 13.8% | RH | 16.0% | 8.4% | 9.7% | 19.4% | L7Days | 16.7% | 8.1% | 13.3% | 13.1% |
| White Sox | Road | 23.3% | 7.3% | 18.6% | 25.3% | RH | 23.4% | 7.2% | 13.6% | 13.5% | L7Days | 24.7% | 5.4% | 16.3% | 9.3% |
| Twins | Road | 22.2% | 9.1% | 12.3% | 16.2% | LH | 25.3% | 9.3% | 8.0% | 5.2% | L7Days | 20.2% | 10.1% | 12.7% | 23.8% |
K/SwStr Chart (2017 LG AVG – 20.5 K% – 9.7 SwStr% – 2.1 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Sanchez | Blue Jays | 15.3% | 9.6% | 1.59 | 14.5% | 8.9% | 1.63 |
| Andrew Suarez | Giants | 27.7% | 7.7% | 3.60 | 27.7% | 7.7% | 3.60 |
| Brandon McCarthy | Braves | 17.3% | 6.1% | 2.84 | 16.7% | 5.9% | 2.83 |
| Brandon Woodruff | Brewers | 24.4% | 12.2% | 2.00 | 57.1% | 19.4% | 2.94 |
| Carson Fulmer | White Sox | 17.9% | 6.5% | 2.75 | 16.8% | 5.8% | 2.90 |
| Chad Bettis | Rockies | 15.8% | 8.6% | 1.84 | 16.0% | 9.3% | 1.72 |
| Chris Sale | Red Sox | 32.3% | 16.1% | 2.01 | 31.0% | 15.7% | 1.97 |
| Cole Hamels | Rangers | 25.5% | 12.3% | 2.07 | 21.8% | 10.7% | 2.04 |
| Dan Straily | Marlins | 7.7% | 11.0% | 0.70 | 7.7% | 11.0% | 0.70 |
| Eric Lauer | Padres | 21.4% | 7.2% | 2.97 | 21.4% | 7.2% | 2.97 |
| Jake Arrieta | Phillies | 16.1% | 6.5% | 2.48 | 14.3% | 6.5% | 2.20 |
| Jake Faria | Rays | 20.8% | 9.6% | 2.17 | 25.9% | 12.0% | 2.16 |
| Jameson Taillon | Pirates | 19.4% | 8.4% | 2.31 | 13.3% | 7.9% | 1.68 |
| Jason Hammel | Royals | 12.8% | 9.5% | 1.35 | 11.5% | 9.4% | 1.22 |
| Justin Verlander | Astros | 35.0% | 14.4% | 2.43 | 37.3% | 15.7% | 2.38 |
| Kendall Graveman | Athletics | 17.2% | 7.1% | 2.42 | |||
| Kenta Maeda | Dodgers | 29.7% | 14.1% | 2.11 | 25.9% | 13.7% | 1.89 |
| Kevin Gausman | Orioles | 20.0% | 11.0% | 1.82 | 20.4% | 10.4% | 1.96 |
| Lance Lynn | Twins | 23.4% | 11.6% | 2.02 | 21.2% | 10.9% | 1.94 |
| Luke Weaver | Cardinals | 20.7% | 9.0% | 2.30 | 19.8% | 9.5% | 2.08 |
| Marco Gonzales | Mariners | 25.5% | 8.9% | 2.87 | 29.1% | 8.7% | 3.34 |
| Matt Boyd | Tigers | 17.9% | 9.4% | 1.90 | 20.3% | 8.8% | 2.31 |
| Matt Harvey | Reds | 16.3% | 8.2% | 1.99 | 16.3% | 7.5% | 2.17 |
| Matt Koch | Diamondbacks | 17.2% | 6.5% | 2.65 | 15.1% | 6.9% | 2.19 |
| Max Scherzer | Nationals | 40.0% | 17.4% | 2.30 | 42.7% | 17.3% | 2.47 |
| Sonny Gray | Yankees | 18.9% | 9.0% | 2.10 | 15.9% | 7.1% | 2.24 |
| Steven Matz | Mets | 26.7% | 7.6% | 3.51 | 24.4% | 8.7% | 2.80 |
| Trevor Bauer | Indians | 28.0% | 12.0% | 2.33 | 28.6% | 13.0% | 2.20 |
| Tyler Chatwood | Cubs | 22.1% | 7.9% | 2.80 | 23.7% | 7.9% | 3.00 |
| Tyler Skaggs | Angels | 24.4% | 10.5% | 2.32 | 24.8% | 9.3% | 2.67 |
There are more over-performers than we’ve probably seen on a single board all season today.
The top three SwStr rates and only three K rates above 30% belong to the big three tonight.
Aaron Sanchez should see his ERA estimators drop with an increase in K%, which one would expect.
Eric Lauer is one of those who is out-performing his current SwStr%.
Marco Gonzales can’t support his K%, but is doing some interesting things.
ERA Estimators Chart (2017 LG AVG – 4.48 ERA – 4.48 SIERA – 4.41 xFIP – 4.50 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | Season DRA | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Sanchez | Blue Jays | 4.14 | 5.18 | 1.04 | 4.14 | 1.11 | 4.78 | 0.64 | 6.90 | 2.76 | 3.64 | 5.31 | 1.67 | 5.32 | 1.68 | 4.78 | 1.14 |
| Andrew Suarez | Giants | 3.06 | 2.89 | -0.17 | 3.06 | -0.04 | 3.67 | 0.61 | 3.01 | -0.05 | 3.06 | 2.90 | -0.16 | 3.02 | -0.04 | 3.68 | 0.62 |
| Brandon McCarthy | Braves | 4.84 | 4.40 | -0.44 | 4.84 | -0.91 | 4.58 | -0.26 | 4.84 | 0.00 | 5.25 | 4.31 | -0.94 | 3.87 | -1.38 | 4.42 | -0.83 |
| Brandon Woodruff | Brewers | 3.86 | 3.04 | -0.82 | 3.86 | -0.49 | 3.38 | -0.48 | 2.41 | -1.45 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.12 | 0.43 | 0.43 | -0.26 | -0.26 |
| Carson Fulmer | White Sox | 5.02 | 5.25 | 0.23 | 5.02 | 0.79 | 6.44 | 1.42 | 10.43 | 5.41 | 5.32 | 5.68 | 0.36 | 6.38 | 1.06 | 7.43 | 2.11 |
| Chad Bettis | Rockies | 2.05 | 4.88 | 2.83 | 2.05 | 2.49 | 4.14 | 2.09 | 2.91 | 0.86 | 1.89 | 4.63 | 2.74 | 4.28 | 2.39 | 3.86 | 1.97 |
| Chris Sale | Red Sox | 2.02 | 2.80 | 0.78 | 2.02 | 1.00 | 2.90 | 0.88 | 2.42 | 0.40 | 2.37 | 2.88 | 0.51 | 3.19 | 0.82 | 3.38 | 1.01 |
| Cole Hamels | Rangers | 3.94 | 3.85 | -0.09 | 3.94 | 0.05 | 4.96 | 1.02 | 5.61 | 1.67 | 3.34 | 4.05 | 0.71 | 4.37 | 1.03 | 4.38 | 1.04 |
| Dan Straily | Marlins | 6.75 | 8.16 | 1.41 | 6.75 | 1.09 | 10.29 | 3.54 | 7.32 | 0.57 | 6.75 | 8.16 | 1.41 | 7.84 | 1.09 | 10.29 | 3.54 |
| Eric Lauer | Padres | 5.79 | 4.44 | -1.35 | 5.79 | -1.54 | 3.45 | -2.34 | 4.25 | -1.54 | 5.79 | 4.44 | -1.35 | 4.25 | -1.54 | 3.45 | -2.34 |
| Jake Arrieta | Phillies | 3.15 | 4.47 | 1.32 | 3.15 | 1.10 | 3.69 | 0.54 | 4.17 | 1.02 | 2.97 | 4.46 | 1.49 | 4.26 | 1.29 | 3.46 | 0.49 |
| Jake Faria | Rays | 4.15 | 4.75 | 0.60 | 4.15 | 0.66 | 4.40 | 0.25 | 5.45 | 1.30 | 2.17 | 3.68 | 1.51 | 3.73 | 1.56 | 3.41 | 1.24 |
| Jameson Taillon | Pirates | 4.42 | 3.96 | -0.46 | 4.42 | -0.60 | 4.01 | -0.41 | 3.00 | -1.42 | 6.45 | 4.67 | -1.78 | 4.56 | -1.89 | 5.00 | -1.45 |
| Jason Hammel | Royals | 4.78 | 5.15 | 0.37 | 4.78 | 0.23 | 3.85 | -0.93 | 6.02 | 1.24 | 5.01 | 5.20 | 0.19 | 5.01 | 0.00 | 4.12 | -0.89 |
| Justin Verlander | Astros | 1.17 | 2.76 | 1.59 | 1.17 | 2.25 | 2.30 | 1.13 | 1.85 | 0.68 | 1.03 | 2.57 | 1.54 | 3.33 | 2.30 | 1.99 | 0.96 |
| Kendall Graveman | Athletics | 8.89 | 4.44 | -4.45 | 8.89 | -4.54 | 6.02 | -2.87 | 6.13 | -2.76 | |||||||
| Kenta Maeda | Dodgers | 4.02 | 3.25 | -0.77 | 4.02 | -0.98 | 2.94 | -1.08 | 1.68 | -2.34 | 4.97 | 3.78 | -1.19 | 3.64 | -1.33 | 3.72 | -1.25 |
| Kevin Gausman | Orioles | 3.30 | 4.19 | 0.89 | 3.30 | 0.85 | 4.79 | 1.49 | 3.37 | 0.07 | 2.08 | 4.13 | 2.05 | 4.05 | 1.97 | 4.20 | 2.12 |
| Lance Lynn | Twins | 7.28 | 5.04 | -2.24 | 7.28 | -2.71 | 5.45 | -1.83 | 5.83 | -1.45 | 8.27 | 4.77 | -3.50 | 4.43 | -3.84 | 5.54 | -2.73 |
| Luke Weaver | Cardinals | 5.60 | 4.53 | -1.07 | 5.60 | -1.06 | 3.44 | -2.16 | 5.38 | -0.22 | 7.50 | 4.62 | -2.88 | 4.65 | -2.85 | 3.92 | -3.58 |
| Marco Gonzales | Mariners | 5.19 | 3.17 | -2.02 | 5.19 | -2.45 | 3.08 | -2.11 | 3.89 | -1.30 | 4.50 | 2.99 | -1.51 | 2.64 | -1.86 | 2.40 | -2.10 |
| Matt Boyd | Tigers | 3.00 | 4.74 | 1.74 | 3.00 | 2.10 | 3.72 | 0.72 | 6.75 | 3.75 | 3.30 | 4.41 | 1.11 | 4.8 | 1.50 | 3.90 | 0.60 |
| Matt Harvey | Reds | 7.00 | 4.64 | -2.36 | 7.00 | -2.47 | 5.68 | -1.32 | 5.77 | -1.23 | 9.00 | 4.79 | -4.21 | 4.58 | -4.42 | 6.70 | -2.30 |
| Matt Koch | Diamondbacks | 2.13 | 4.38 | 2.25 | 2.13 | 2.22 | 4.42 | 2.29 | 2.31 | 4.61 | 2.30 | 4.51 | 2.20 | 4.79 | 2.48 | ||
| Max Scherzer | Nationals | 1.74 | 2.22 | 0.48 | 1.74 | 0.88 | 1.75 | 0.01 | 1.64 | -0.10 | 2.27 | 2.14 | -0.13 | 2.43 | 0.16 | 1.87 | -0.40 |
| Sonny Gray | Yankees | 6.00 | 5.12 | -0.88 | 6.00 | -1.09 | 4.53 | -1.47 | 6.38 | 0.38 | 7.04 | 5.75 | -1.29 | 5.78 | -1.26 | 5.51 | -1.53 |
| Steven Matz | Mets | 4.23 | 3.75 | -0.48 | 4.23 | -0.44 | 5.15 | 0.92 | 4.39 | 0.16 | 4.82 | 3.79 | -1.03 | 4.06 | -0.76 | 5.20 | 0.38 |
| Trevor Bauer | Indians | 2.53 | 3.69 | 1.16 | 2.53 | 1.26 | 3.16 | 0.63 | 2.81 | 0.28 | 2.70 | 3.59 | 0.89 | 3.65 | 0.95 | 3.08 | 0.38 |
| Tyler Chatwood | Cubs | 3.31 | 5.60 | 2.29 | 3.31 | 1.74 | 4.26 | 0.95 | 6.83 | 3.52 | 3.71 | 5.25 | 1.54 | 4.74 | 1.03 | 4.14 | 0.43 |
| Tyler Skaggs | Angels | 3.08 | 3.59 | 0.51 | 3.08 | 0.38 | 2.74 | -0.34 | 2.76 | -0.32 | 3.67 | 3.61 | -0.06 | 3.39 | -0.28 | 2.98 | -0.69 |
Chris Sale has an 88.6 LOB%.
Eric Lauer has a .404 BABIP.
Justin Verlander has a .205 BABIP, 90.4 LOB% and 5.8 HR/FB. Of course, you expect regression, but he has a fantastic profile (BABIP) and another take away below is that the Astros have excelled at placing their fielders in the correct spots, but also probably have a smaller BABIP sample size on defense than probably any other team due to all the strikeouts.
Kenta Maeda has a .366 BABIP, for which we look below.
Luke Weaver has a 60.2 LOB%, which we like to see when a guy is struggling because it’s generally the thing that fixes itself eventually. That’s not to say there aren’t other problems we may not have time to explore more deeply on a 14 game slate (look at his Statcast data on Baseball Savant and then Brooks Baseball if you have some time on your hands), but there are some positive signs in his plate discipline and contact authority.
Marco Gonzales has a .400 BABIP. There’s no support for it to continue beyond a 33 LD%, which is bad, but also has the highest variance among batted ball rates.
Trevor Bauer has a .239 BABIP.
BABIP & Statcast Chart (2017 LG AVG – .297 BABIP – 44.3 GB% – 20.5 LD% – 9.4 IFFB% – 86.7 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | GB% | LD% | IFFB% | Z-contact% | Z-O-Swing% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Sanchez | Blue Jays | 0.312 | 0.282 | -0.030 | 55.9% | 15.7% | 11.1% | 82.5% | 37.0% |
| Andrew Suarez | Giants | 0.287 | 0.286 | -0.001 | 53.3% | 8.9% | 5.9% | 88.8% | 35.7% |
| Brandon McCarthy | Braves | 0.290 | 0.342 | 0.052 | 50.4% | 26.5% | 0.0% | 91.2% | 39.2% |
| Brandon Woodruff | Brewers | 0.269 | 0.333 | 0.064 | 53.6% | 17.9% | 12.5% | 83.6% | 36.0% |
| Carson Fulmer | White Sox | 0.301 | 0.279 | -0.022 | 31.2% | 20.4% | 8.9% | 91.0% | 40.5% |
| Chad Bettis | Rockies | 0.290 | 0.224 | -0.066 | 43.7% | 22.2% | 7.0% | 84.7% | 35.3% |
| Chris Sale | Red Sox | 0.292 | 0.270 | -0.022 | 41.7% | 20.0% | 20.5% | 79.4% | 29.9% |
| Cole Hamels | Rangers | 0.313 | 0.292 | -0.021 | 41.1% | 24.0% | 4.4% | 82.4% | 33.6% |
| Dan Straily | Marlins | 0.303 | 0.240 | -0.063 | 29.6% | 25.9% | 8.3% | 85.1% | 53.7% |
| Eric Lauer | Padres | 0.318 | 0.404 | 0.086 | 40.4% | 27.7% | 0.0% | 81.4% | 48.0% |
| Jake Arrieta | Phillies | 0.286 | 0.228 | -0.058 | 60.4% | 11.9% | 10.7% | 85.3% | 29.6% |
| Jake Faria | Rays | 0.288 | 0.237 | -0.051 | 36.1% | 21.6% | 9.8% | 85.3% | 38.8% |
| Jameson Taillon | Pirates | 0.293 | 0.296 | 0.003 | 55.5% | 19.1% | 3.6% | 89.4% | 29.0% |
| Jason Hammel | Royals | 0.305 | 0.291 | -0.014 | 42.4% | 21.2% | 3.6% | 91.0% | 33.6% |
| Justin Verlander | Astros | 0.262 | 0.205 | -0.057 | 27.2% | 12.3% | 10.1% | 76.5% | 30.8% |
| Kendall Graveman | Athletics | 0.296 | 0.370 | 0.074 | 53.1% | 19.4% | 3.7% | 88.9% | 31.8% |
| Kenta Maeda | Dodgers | 0.300 | 0.366 | 0.066 | 44.0% | 25.0% | 0.0% | 78.2% | 37.1% |
| Kevin Gausman | Orioles | 0.322 | 0.244 | -0.078 | 44.6% | 19.2% | 12.8% | 83.4% | 37.4% |
| Lance Lynn | Twins | 0.299 | 0.375 | 0.076 | 49.4% | 22.4% | 4.2% | 80.9% | 39.5% |
| Luke Weaver | Cardinals | 0.286 | 0.314 | 0.028 | 42.3% | 19.2% | 15.0% | 87.1% | 44.8% |
| Marco Gonzales | Mariners | 0.305 | 0.400 | 0.095 | 42.7% | 33.0% | 12.0% | 87.0% | 32.9% |
| Matt Boyd | Tigers | 0.288 | 0.248 | -0.040 | 31.8% | 16.8% | 7.3% | 87.6% | 36.6% |
| Matt Harvey | Reds | 0.287 | 0.310 | 0.023 | 41.1% | 26.7% | 13.8% | 85.4% | 50.3% |
| Matt Koch | Diamondbacks | 0.274 | 0.214 | -0.060 | 51.4% | 16.7% | 8.7% | 91.3% | 38.1% |
| Max Scherzer | Nationals | 0.277 | 0.277 | 0.000 | 35.0% | 14.6% | 11.5% | 71.4% | 37.0% |
| Sonny Gray | Yankees | 0.289 | 0.327 | 0.038 | 46.7% | 22.9% | 15.6% | 90.4% | 38.1% |
| Steven Matz | Mets | 0.296 | 0.227 | -0.069 | 50.7% | 11.9% | 0.0% | 86.3% | 42.4% |
| Trevor Bauer | Indians | 0.265 | 0.239 | -0.026 | 46.5% | 16.7% | 14.3% | 86.9% | 30.9% |
| Tyler Chatwood | Cubs | 0.270 | 0.265 | -0.005 | 52.5% | 17.5% | 16.7% | 87.1% | 36.9% |
| Tyler Skaggs | Angels | 0.296 | 0.299 | 0.003 | 50.9% | 18.5% | 3.0% | 80.1% | 32.9% |
Brandon McCarthy almost makes me want to side with the .342 BABIP when looking at the numbers to the right of it.
Chris Sale and Justin Verlander are the only two on the board to combine elite Z-Contact with elite Z-O-Swing%. I’m perfectly fine with Sale’s .270 BABIP.
Eric Lauer doesn’t appear to be fooling anyone and a 27.7 LD%, while less predictive that descriptive, is going to put a high BABIP on your stat page. However, looking at the table below, his 22.9% 95+ mph EV is second best on the board, which speaks to the potential flukiness here.
Jameson Taillon has allowed the lowest rate of barrels on contact (2.7%).
Kenta Maeda has not induced a single popup, while one quarter of batted balls have been line drives. This is not what we’re used to from him, but it’s difficult to argue with the results he has produced thus far. Causes for optimism include his previous work and continued elite Z-Contact%.
Trevor Bauer is unlikely to hold this BABIP because his defense is unlikely to hold theirs. Otherwise, his batted ball profile certainly suggests he can outperform his defense by a few points.
StatCast Chart
All stats from BaseballSavant.com.
| Player | Team | xwOBA | wOBA-xwOBA | xwOBA H/A | wOBA-xwOBA H/A | xwOBA L30 Days | wOBA-xwOBA L30 Days | Effective Velocity | Exit Velocity | Barrels BBE | 95+ MPH ExV | BBE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Sanchez | Blue Jays | 0.361 | -0.031 | 0.369 | 0.039 | 0.364 | -0.064 | -0.2 | 89.8 | 7.1 | 40.2 | 127 |
| Andrew Suarez | Giants | 0.306 | -0.016 | 0.286 | 0.025 | 0.306 | -0.016 | -1.9 | 89.4 | 8.9 | 31.1 | 45 |
| Brandon McCarthy | Braves | 0.346 | 0.018 | 0.327 | -0.003 | 0.349 | 0.019 | -1.1 | 88.3 | 6.0 | 33.6 | 116 |
| Brandon Woodruff | Brewers | 0.366 | -0.065 | 0.310 | -0.042 | -0.3 | 92.8 | 10.7 | 57.1 | 28 | ||
| Carson Fulmer | White Sox | 0.428 | -0.058 | 0.358 | -0.088 | 0.443 | -0.048 | -0.5 | 90.9 | 14.0 | 47.3 | 93 |
| Chad Bettis | Rockies | 0.347 | -0.078 | 0.315 | -0.004 | 0.322 | -0.073 | -0.8 | 88 | 7.0 | 40.3 | 129 |
| Chris Sale | Red Sox | 0.263 | -0.003 | 0.248 | 0.005 | 0.281 | -0.004 | -1.1 | 85.4 | 8.6 | 27.6 | 116 |
| Cole Hamels | Rangers | 0.364 | -0.028 | 0.333 | -0.037 | 0.369 | -0.044 | -0.4 | 89.1 | 10.1 | 39.5 | 129 |
| Dan Straily | Marlins | 0.491 | -0.022 | 0.314 | 0.020 | 0.491 | -0.022 | -0.3 | 89.7 | 10.7 | 46.4 | 28 |
| Eric Lauer | Padres | 0.353 | 0.008 | 0.263 | 0.003 | 0.353 | 0.008 | -0.3 | 89.5 | 6.3 | 22.9 | 48 |
| Jake Arrieta | Phillies | 0.276 | -0.019 | 0.262 | -0.010 | 0.276 | -0.019 | -1.0 | 86 | 2.9 | 29.4 | 102 |
| Jake Faria | Rays | 0.352 | -0.062 | 0.332 | -0.006 | 0.343 | -0.054 | -1.1 | 88.6 | 8.2 | 34.0 | 97 |
| Jameson Taillon | Pirates | 0.290 | 0.004 | 0.312 | 0.029 | 0.310 | -0.006 | -0.3 | 87.6 | 2.7 | 33.9 | 112 |
| Jason Hammel | Royals | 0.393 | -0.089 | 0.356 | -0.016 | 0.388 | -0.085 | 0.2 | 89.7 | 10.6 | 37.7 | 151 |
| Justin Verlander | Astros | 0.242 | -0.038 | 0.298 | -0.058 | 0.206 | -0.032 | -1.2 | 86.6 | 7.8 | 29.3 | 116 |
| Kendall Graveman | Athletics | 0.393 | 0.014 | 0.376 | -0.006 | 0.362 | 0.021 | 0.1 | 87.9 | 9.1 | 35.4 | 99 |
| Kenta Maeda | Dodgers | 0.298 | 0.027 | 0.267 | -0.004 | 0.314 | 0.025 | -0.8 | 88.8 | 5.9 | 36.5 | 85 |
| Kevin Gausman | Orioles | 0.329 | -0.031 | 0.349 | -0.009 | 0.320 | -0.057 | -0.6 | 89.7 | 8.4 | 39.7 | 131 |
| Lance Lynn | Twins | 0.359 | 0.032 | 0.324 | 0.011 | 0.349 | 0.041 | -0.3 | 88.2 | 5.9 | 42.4 | 85 |
| Luke Weaver | Cardinals | 0.326 | -0.025 | 0.290 | 0.012 | 0.312 | -0.015 | -0.9 | 86.1 | 5.6 | 30.8 | 107 |
| Marco Gonzales | Mariners | 0.347 | 0.001 | 0.362 | 0.010 | 0.327 | 0.025 | -0.6 | 89.3 | 6.7 | 42.3 | 104 |
| Matt Boyd | Tigers | 0.290 | -0.027 | 0.320 | -0.012 | 0.294 | -0.015 | -0.9 | 86 | 6.5 | 22.2 | 108 |
| Matt Harvey | Reds | 0.400 | -0.022 | 0.360 | 0.046 | 0.431 | -0.002 | -1.0 | 89.5 | 8.6 | 41.9 | 93 |
| Matt Koch | Diamondbacks | 0.370 | -0.093 | 0.351 | -0.065 | 0.370 | -0.093 | -0.3 | 90.9 | 11.0 | 43.8 | 73 |
| Max Scherzer | Nationals | 0.262 | -0.028 | 0.259 | -0.018 | 0.247 | -0.033 | -0.8 | 87.9 | 8.7 | 39.4 | 104 |
| Sonny Gray | Yankees | 0.368 | -0.025 | 0.333 | -0.040 | 0.371 | -0.035 | -0.3 | 90.9 | 5.6 | 43.9 | 107 |
| Steven Matz | Mets | 0.342 | -0.028 | 0.327 | -0.011 | 0.320 | -0.033 | 0.1 | 86.4 | 12.5 | 43.1 | 72 |
| Trevor Bauer | Indians | 0.288 | -0.040 | 0.319 | -0.012 | 0.288 | -0.057 | -0.7 | 87.9 | 5.2 | 33.6 | 116 |
| Tyler Chatwood | Cubs | 0.336 | -0.029 | 0.343 | 0.020 | 0.333 | -0.032 | -0.7 | 85.7 | 3.6 | 26.2 | 84 |
| Tyler Skaggs | Angels | 0.298 | -0.032 | 0.354 | -0.018 | 0.300 | -0.015 | -0.6 | 89.9 | 6.4 | 40.4 | 109 |
The three lowest xwOBAs on the board are the big three.
Andrew Suarez has an odd combination high aEV, low 95+ mph EV that will probably straighten out one way or another with a few more starts.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top few. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
The big three dominate all categories today, including price tag. With very minor differences, it comes down to matchup (but could change when ownership comes out). Fourth tier guys are all just some secondary DraftKings ideas to pair with one of the top guys.
Value Tier One
Justin Verlander (1t) has the lowest xwOBA on the board and the top matchup among the big three. On one hand, sure, he’s the easy play. On the other, everybody knows it.
Max Scherzer (1t) probably has a better matchup than the pre-humidor park factors make it seem, but it still may not be as high upside as Verlander’s. That said, if you give Scherzer a slight edge overall, it essentially brings them into a tie tonight at just about the same cost (Scherzer is $300 to $400 more). You probably can’t go wrong.
Value Tier Two
Chris Sale (3) did struggle in Toronto his first time out, but is coming off his best start of the season and facing a struggling offense that was essentially shut down by Mike Leake last night (although they came a few feet from an additional three runs against him on a barreled out). As stated in the open to this section, it comes down to matchup and he has the worst of the three…probably. Then again, it may make him the lowest owned.
Value Tier Three
Tyler Skaggs (4t) kind of sneaks in here at the end of the board (alphabetically by first name at least). I can’t figure out why he’s been unable to complete six innings so often, but everything else calls him a quality pitcher in a spot that may be a bit better than some numbers suggest. If he can use his 95-100 pitches to get through six or more innings, there’s some value in a price tag below $9K here. It doesn’t even need much extrapolation beyond the numbers presented here. It’s all basically in there.
Trevor Bauer (4t) is in his own little tier in terms of being the next best arm behind the guys above and if players are looking to save some money with a high quality arm who goes deep into games, this might be your guy. However, the reason he drops from second to third tier for me is because of that low strikeout rate for KC.
Kenta Maeda (4t) adds risk in that if he gets in trouble, he’s not going to go seven innings and make up for lost points. However, at the high end of his strikeout range, he can still generate $9K worth of value in six innings in a strong run prevention spot. There’s a decent shot at a quality start here too.
Marco Gonzales has a 4% walk rate, which he’s retained while doing some things differently recently, which I don’t believe the numbers have fully caught up to. The Tigers are tricky because the numbers don’t signify a favorable matchup, but they have made some bad pitchers look good this year. Hoping he comes in under the radar tonight.
Jameson Taillon is a strong contact manager with some upside at a cost below $8K in a decent spot. No, he’s not going to spin double digit strikeouts, but he should have a few more than he has accumulated recently. He may be underpriced in a decent spot here.
Luke Weaver is high risk due to recent performance, but too cheap on FanDuel ($5.9K) considering the upside in this matchup. Drop him a tier or even potentially altogether for $2K more on DraftKings.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Andrew Suarez has a phony strikeout rate, but has been far from terrible. It’s hard to see the Pirates continuing to punish southpaws at home like this. It’s a very favorable park for left-handed pitching. He costs a reasonable $7.1K.
Eric Lauer is in a reasonable spot in a favorable park at a low cost. This is essentially what we’re looking for today: usable, low cost SP2 types. The Cardinals do have some very dangerous bats against LHP, though one of them is currently DLed.
Brandon McCarthy has only really been bad in half his starts. He’s a cheap pitcher facing the Marlins.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.