Advanced Stats - Pitching: Saturday, April 29th
Eight games on the Saturday night slate with notes. All afternoon starters are listed as well. Nobody wants to spend their Saturday reading long introductions, so let’s get started right away. Just a reminder that Monday’s pitching article is unlikely at this point.
It seems like the Baseball Savant Statcast issue has both Barrels columns showing Barrels/BBE stats. Daren is aware of the issue.
As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, ownership projections and Kevin’s weather report as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. And all of which are now available right here on the site.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB% L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Triggs | OAK | -10.6 | 3.59 | 4.8 | 51.9% | 0.94 | 3.49 | 3.4 | HOU | 115 | 127 | 130 |
| Brandon McCarthy | LOS | -11.6 | 4.38 | 4.92 | 39.6% | 0.89 | 4.06 | 2.98 | PHI | 73 | 94 | 101 |
| Bronson Arroyo | CIN | 22.6 | 4.27 | 5.25 | 36.4% | 0.98 | 6.94 | 3.16 | STL | 94 | 100 | 138 |
| Dan Straily | MIA | 4.8 | 4.56 | 5.76 | 33.4% | 0.94 | 5.18 | 2.34 | PIT | 86 | 86 | 124 |
| Danny Salazar | CLE | -13.7 | 3.58 | 5.82 | 45.2% | 1.09 | 3.52 | 3.25 | SEA | 94 | 114 | 149 |
| Derek Holland | CHW | 1.1 | 4.81 | 5.61 | 39.3% | 0.98 | 5.55 | 4.05 | DET | 110 | 96 | 133 |
| Francisco Liriano | TOR | -1.6 | 3.91 | 5.68 | 51.5% | 1.03 | 3.83 | 4.45 | TAM | 98 | 115 | 117 |
| Ivan Nova | PIT | 6 | 4.04 | 5.72 | 51.5% | 0.94 | 3.6 | 3.28 | MIA | 93 | 91 | 82 |
| Jaime Garcia | ATL | 0.9 | 3.81 | 5.89 | 57.3% | 1.02 | 4.24 | 4.15 | MIL | 102 | 146 | 124 |
| Jason Hammel | KAN | 14.6 | 3.99 | 5.41 | 39.7% | 1.06 | 4.08 | 4.41 | MIN | 101 | 103 | 108 |
| Jesse Chavez | ANA | -2.9 | 3.88 | 5.76 | 43.8% | 1.11 | 4.22 | 3.61 | TEX | 94 | 98 | 106 |
| Jhoulys Chacin | SDG | 5.1 | 4.36 | 5.42 | 48.7% | 0.93 | 4.57 | 4.28 | SFO | 70 | 79 | 59 |
| Jimmy Nelson | MIL | -7.7 | 4.53 | 5.77 | 49.4% | 1.02 | 4.7 | 5.44 | ATL | 87 | 92 | 90 |
| Joe Musgrove | HOU | -5.6 | 4.15 | 5.64 | 44.1% | 0.94 | 4.11 | 3.96 | OAK | 78 | 98 | 66 |
| John Lackey | CHC | 12.7 | 3.81 | 6.52 | 43.7% | 1.13 | 3.57 | 4.1 | BOS | 101 | 99 | 89 |
| Matt Andriese | TAM | 5.9 | 3.91 | 5.31 | 44.1% | 1.03 | 3.94 | 3.58 | TOR | 73 | 77 | 106 |
| Matt Cain | SFO | 1.3 | 4.74 | 5.1 | 37.2% | 0.93 | 4.74 | 5.06 | SDG | 75 | 79 | 78 |
| Michael Fulmer | DET | 1.6 | 3.95 | 6.13 | 48.5% | 0.98 | 4.01 | 3.33 | CHW | 75 | 73 | 133 |
| Michael Pineda | NYY | 4.2 | 3.24 | 5.66 | 46.5% | 1.01 | 3.26 | 3.43 | BAL | 118 | 107 | 111 |
| Mike Leake | STL | -18.8 | 3.99 | 6.14 | 53.8% | 0.98 | 3.47 | 3.57 | CIN | 114 | 95 | 110 |
| Phil Hughes | MIN | 16.2 | 4.68 | 5.67 | 35.8% | 1.06 | 5.35 | 4.58 | KAN | 76 | 69 | 49 |
| Stephen Strasburg | WAS | -8.2 | 2.92 | 5.94 | 41.9% | 1.01 | 3.26 | 2.41 | NYM | 114 | 77 | 67 |
| Steven Wright | BOS | 1.6 | 4.55 | 6.11 | 43.4% | 1.13 | 5 | 4.7 | CHC | 107 | 95 | 116 |
| Tyler Anderson | COL | 1.3 | 3.91 | 5.8 | 48.7% | 1.13 | 3.64 | 4.05 | ARI | 126 | 76 | 127 |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | -11.1 | 4.41 | 5.52 | 0.479 | 1.01 | 4.92 | 6.65 | NYY | 148 | 125 | 130 |
| Yovani Gallardo | SEA | 3.5 | 4.98 | 5.42 | 0.467 | 1.09 | 4.91 | 3.4 | CLE | 115 | 123 | 109 |
| Yu Darvish | TEX | -2.4 | 3.26 | 6.05 | 0.411 | 1.11 | 3.55 | 3.28 | ANA | 64 | 91 | 89 |
| Zach Eflin | PHI | 12.2 | 5.33 | 5.78 | 0.359 | 0.89 | 5.77 | 4.92 | LOS | 120 | 109 | 77 |
| Zack Greinke | ARI | -11.2 | 3.61 | 6.53 | 0.466 | 1.13 | 4.15 | 2.97 | COL | 77 | 77 | 124 |
| Zack Wheeler | NYM | 0.4 | 3.55 | 5.3 | 0.459 | 1.01 | 2.94 | 3.5 | WAS | 122 | 117 | 142 |
Andrew Triggs has a tough assignment in Houston and hasn’t been striking out batters at the same rate as last season or throughout the minors, but he has had a SwStr rate above 12% in two of his four starts. He’s kept the ball on the ground 54.3% of the time with a 23.9 Hard% and the third lowest rate of Barrels/BBE (2.8%) on the board.
Brandon McCarthy has gone at least six innings in three of his four starts and has yet to allow more than two runs. He’s struck out 14 of 47 batters over his last two (both against Arizona) and has the lowest aEV (84.3 mph) on the board with a -3.3 Hard-Soft%. While the 86.2 LOB% is quite high, he’s been great. While improved, the Phillies are still a below average offense (24.1 K% vs RHP) and Dodger Stadium is one of the most pitcher-friendly run environments in baseball.
Dan Straily struck out 14 Padres in his last start and now has a SwStr above 15% in two of his four starts. That’s tough to continue to ignore on this slate, even with a double-digit walk rate and .217 BABIP. The Pirates have the lowest strikeout rate on the board against the handedness of the pitcher they are facing (16.6% vs RHP), but also the lowest Hard-Soft rate (4.9%).
Ivan Nova struck out a season high seven Yankees in his last start. Perhaps a little extra motivation against his former employer, but that marks two straight starts with a SwStr of at least 8% after being below 5% in each of his first two starts. He doesn’t generate exceptionally weak contact and his GB% isn’t too far above average, but he has walked just one batter all season. He won’t hurt himself and that might be enough in a favorable park against a below-average Miami offense.
Jesse Chavez has been good in three of his four starts, though four of his nine walks this year came in his last one. He’s missing bats at an above average rate with league average GB and hard contact rates. Texas is merely an average offense, but it’s a tough park to pitch in.
Tyler Anderson has shown some signs of being the guy he was last year with a double digit SwStr% in four of five starts and a hard hit rate below 20% in each of his last two, but he now has a GB rate below 40% in three of five starts. The Diamondbacks have been surprisingly poor vs southpaws this season (15.9 K-BB%, 8.2 HR/FB), extending even beyond facing Bumgarner and Kershaw a few times already. They generally have a reputation for punishing LHP at home though, making the fewer ground balls we’re suddenly seeing out of this arm a bit more concerning.
Yu Darvish has dropped nearly two points off his SwStr% while losing a touchdown from his K% this year, but both are still above league average. A poor pitching environment is a consideration today, but the Angels are a one-man wrecking crew, while below average in most other spots and have been striking out at a league average rate against RHP this season.
Zack Greinke has been pitching effectively at reduced velocity. We can no longer deny that. Striking out 17 of 53 Padres over his last two starts might not get us too excited, but his only poor start came against the Dodgers. He had a 9.8 SwStr% in his first start of the season and has increased it in every start since, reaching 17.5% in his last start. Arizona is a very unfriendly face to pitch, but the Rockies have a 77 wRC+ both on the road and against RHP.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.298 BABIP – 72.3 LOB% – 13.3 HR/FB)
Matt Cain (.212 – 91.7% – 10.0) shut out the Dodgers for six innings in his last start, but struck out just three, his exact output in three of his four starts now. Those looking for good news could note that his hard contact rate has been 25% or less in three of his four starts, but even in this great spot at home against the Padres, there’s just so little upside left in his arm and he’s on the top half of the board cost-wise.
Zach Eflin (.147 – 81.4% – 5.3)
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Jhoulys Chacin has pitched into the seventh inning without allowing a run in two of his five starts, one of them against the Giants. He’s allowed 19 ERs in 14.1 IP with just 11 Ks and 8 BBs in his other three starts. The Giants have just an 18.3 K% vs RHP, but may otherwise be the top matchup on the board (-1.0 Hard-Soft% at home), which might be the most compelling and probably only reason to consider him tonight.
Jason Hammel has just a 4.5 K-BB%.
Phil Hughes has struck out three or fewer in three of his four starts, while being tied for the highest aEV on the board (all day) at 91.2% with one in eight batted balls allowed being barreled and one of every two considered hard hit. He’s only even this high on the board by virtue of facing the Royals. I would like to play an entire lineup of Moose Tacos tonight.
Joe Musgrove has walked just one batter in each of his last three, but hasn’t generated an above average SwStr% in any start. If he can get back to missing bats at a league average rate with excellent control, we’ll return to the fan club.
Jaime Garcia has already allowed four HRs. The Brewers have a 27.3 K% vs LHP. Their HR/FB and Hard% against southpaws is higher.
Jimmy Nelson seems to find his way into the hearts of the daily fantasy community at the beginning of every year. It never lasts. He walked six Cardinals his last time out and has a SwStr below 8% in each of his last three starts.
K/BB Chart
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Triggs | Athletics | L2 Years | 20.7% | 5.8% | Road | 21.4% | 5.2% | L14 Days | 20.5% | 4.6% |
| Brandon McCarthy | Dodgers | L2 Years | 25.2% | 13.0% | Home | 27.8% | 13.9% | L14 Days | 29.8% | 8.5% |
| Bronson Arroyo | Reds | L2 Years | 18.0% | 5.6% | Road | 14.3% | 14.3% | L14 Days | 25.6% | 4.7% |
| Dan Straily | Marlins | L2 Years | 21.0% | 9.5% | Home | 20.5% | 10.8% | L14 Days | 41.3% | 10.9% |
| Danny Salazar | Indians | L2 Years | 26.8% | 8.8% | Home | 28.5% | 8.9% | L14 Days | 30.8% | 9.6% |
| Derek Holland | White Sox | L2 Years | 15.9% | 7.6% | Road | 14.2% | 9.2% | L14 Days | 21.3% | 8.5% |
| Francisco Liriano | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 24.3% | 10.4% | Home | 24.9% | 10.8% | L14 Days | 17.4% | 10.9% |
| Ivan Nova | Pirates | L2 Years | 17.1% | 5.2% | Road | 18.5% | 3.0% | L14 Days | 18.9% | 1.9% |
| Jaime Garcia | Braves | L2 Years | 19.3% | 7.0% | Road | 18.8% | 7.8% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 8.0% |
| Jason Hammel | Royals | L2 Years | 22.1% | 7.4% | Home | 21.6% | 8.6% | L14 Days | 19.1% | 9.5% |
| Jesse Chavez | Angels | L2 Years | 20.8% | 7.1% | Road | 20.7% | 8.6% | L14 Days | 23.7% | 10.2% |
| Jhoulys Chacin | Padres | L2 Years | 18.6% | 8.7% | Road | 17.2% | 10.2% | L14 Days | 17.7% | 8.9% |
| Jimmy Nelson | Brewers | L2 Years | 18.5% | 9.6% | Home | 18.8% | 10.4% | L14 Days | 15.7% | 13.7% |
| Joe Musgrove | Astros | L2 Years | 19.4% | 6.3% | Home | 23.4% | 6.9% | L14 Days | 18.4% | 4.1% |
| John Lackey | Cubs | L2 Years | 22.4% | 6.6% | Road | 25.4% | 7.2% | L14 Days | 17.0% | 5.7% |
| Matt Andriese | Rays | L2 Years | 20.1% | 5.5% | Road | 20.1% | 4.8% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 6.7% |
| Matt Cain | Giants | L2 Years | 16.8% | 8.0% | Home | 18.0% | 9.2% | L14 Days | 13.0% | 6.5% |
| Michael Fulmer | Tigers | L2 Years | 20.8% | 6.4% | Home | 20.9% | 5.5% | L14 Days | 23.1% | 5.8% |
| Michael Pineda | Yankees | L2 Years | 25.8% | 5.3% | Home | 28.3% | 6.4% | L14 Days | 24.5% | 6.1% |
| Mike Leake | Cardinals | L2 Years | 15.8% | 4.9% | Home | 16.5% | 2.8% | L14 Days | 13.7% | 5.9% |
| Phil Hughes | Twins | L2 Years | 13.4% | 3.5% | Road | 11.4% | 6.0% | L14 Days | 11.6% | 2.3% |
| Stephen Strasburg | Nationals | L2 Years | 30.7% | 6.2% | Home | 29.2% | 6.4% | L14 Days | 32.1% | 7.1% |
| Steven Wright | Red Sox | L2 Years | 18.1% | 8.2% | Home | 17.2% | 8.0% | L14 Days | 8.5% | 2.1% |
| Tyler Anderson | Rockies | L2 Years | 20.5% | 6.1% | Road | 20.4% | 5.9% | L14 Days | 17.2% | 4.7% |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | Orioles | L2 Years | 19.8% | 9.9% | Road | 17.5% | 11.1% | L14 Days | 12.8% | 19.2% |
| Yovani Gallardo | Mariners | L2 Years | 15.0% | 9.8% | Road | 16.4% | 10.2% | L14 Days | 19.6% | 2.0% |
| Yu Darvish | Rangers | L2 Years | 30.0% | 8.1% | Home | 27.6% | 8.4% | L14 Days | 24.5% | 6.1% |
| Zach Eflin | Phillies | L2 Years | 12.0% | 6.3% | Road | 10.5% | 7.3% | L14 Days | 15.2% | 6.5% |
| Zack Greinke | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 22.4% | 5.4% | Home | 18.7% | 6.7% | L14 Days | 26.3% | 5.0% |
| Zack Wheeler | Mets | L2 Years | 23.6% | 6.7% | Road | 19.1% | 4.8% | L14 Days | 26.5% | 8.2% |
K/BB Chart – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Astros | Home | 18.4% | 7.3% | RH | 19.3% | 7.8% | L7Days | 20.3% | 8.5% |
| Phillies | Road | 27.2% | 7.1% | RH | 24.1% | 7.8% | L7Days | 23.3% | 7.4% |
| Cardinals | Home | 20.5% | 10.5% | RH | 20.4% | 9.2% | L7Days | 17.7% | 11.0% |
| Pirates | Road | 17.3% | 7.8% | RH | 16.6% | 8.2% | L7Days | 17.6% | 12.4% |
| Mariners | Road | 20.6% | 8.7% | RH | 20.5% | 8.5% | L7Days | 16.9% | 8.7% |
| Tigers | Home | 21.2% | 9.5% | LH | 22.5% | 7.7% | L7Days | 18.7% | 10.7% |
| Rays | Road | 28.2% | 9.3% | LH | 27.7% | 12.7% | L7Days | 22.4% | 10.6% |
| Marlins | Home | 23.7% | 8.0% | RH | 21.0% | 5.8% | L7Days | 16.8% | 4.6% |
| Brewers | Home | 28.4% | 9.4% | LH | 27.3% | 9.6% | L7Days | 21.7% | 11.1% |
| Twins | Road | 18.8% | 10.6% | RH | 21.1% | 11.7% | L7Days | 16.5% | 10.9% |
| Rangers | Home | 23.3% | 8.8% | RH | 20.8% | 8.5% | L7Days | 20.6% | 8.9% |
| Giants | Home | 18.5% | 7.6% | RH | 18.3% | 6.9% | L7Days | 18.1% | 6.4% |
| Braves | Road | 20.7% | 7.4% | RH | 20.9% | 8.4% | L7Days | 19.8% | 10.1% |
| Athletics | Road | 24.3% | 7.5% | RH | 24.7% | 8.8% | L7Days | 28.6% | 6.0% |
| Red Sox | Home | 17.2% | 8.1% | RH | 17.2% | 7.3% | L7Days | 18.1% | 7.9% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 25.1% | 6.6% | RH | 23.4% | 7.5% | L7Days | 21.6% | 7.9% |
| Padres | Road | 26.4% | 6.5% | RH | 25.6% | 6.7% | L7Days | 31.4% | 5.0% |
| White Sox | Road | 23.1% | 4.9% | RH | 25.3% | 6.0% | L7Days | 21.4% | 7.0% |
| Orioles | Road | 24.8% | 5.9% | RH | 20.3% | 7.7% | L7Days | 19.3% | 10.1% |
| Reds | Road | 17.6% | 8.6% | RH | 19.7% | 8.1% | L7Days | 23.3% | 8.1% |
| Royals | Home | 20.3% | 7.8% | RH | 21.8% | 6.9% | L7Days | 21.8% | 5.2% |
| Mets | Road | 21.5% | 10.8% | RH | 21.3% | 9.9% | L7Days | 20.0% | 8.9% |
| Cubs | Road | 22.7% | 10.2% | RH | 23.9% | 8.9% | L7Days | 23.3% | 11.2% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 21.6% | 8.5% | LH | 22.2% | 6.3% | L7Days | 19.6% | 7.5% |
| Yankees | Home | 20.1% | 11.8% | RH | 20.9% | 10.3% | L7Days | 21.7% | 9.9% |
| Indians | Home | 24.2% | 11.1% | RH | 21.7% | 9.3% | L7Days | 23.9% | 10.6% |
| Angels | Road | 23.6% | 7.6% | RH | 20.9% | 7.1% | L7Days | 16.4% | 6.0% |
| Dodgers | Home | 19.4% | 11.0% | RH | 20.1% | 11.2% | L7Days | 18.4% | 10.5% |
| Rockies | Road | 24.3% | 7.7% | RH | 20.0% | 8.6% | L7Days | 18.3% | 7.0% |
| Nationals | Home | 19.2% | 8.0% | RH | 19.2% | 9.7% | L7Days | 21.3% | 10.1% |
Batted Ball Chart
Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Triggs | Athletics | L2 Years | 26.1% | 9.1% | 8.0% | 2017 | 23.9% | 4.2% | 8.4% | Road | 25.2% | 13.3% | 1.8% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 10.0% | 9.4% |
| Brandon McCarthy | Dodgers | L2 Years | 30.6% | 7.3% | 8.7% | 2017 | 21.3% | 10.5% | -3.3% | Home | 34.9% | 10.0% | 14.0% | L14 Days | 17.2% | 12.5% | -13.8% |
| Bronson Arroyo | Reds | L2 Years | 32.4% | 20.0% | 20.6% | 2017 | 32.4% | 20.0% | 20.6% | Road | 20.0% | 25.0% | 6.7% | L14 Days | 40.0% | 20.0% | 23.3% |
| Dan Straily | Marlins | L2 Years | 32.1% | 12.0% | 16.2% | 2017 | 34.7% | 14.3% | 10.2% | Home | 33.4% | 9.5% | 19.3% | L14 Days | 31.8% | 10.0% | -4.6% |
| Danny Salazar | Indians | L2 Years | 30.3% | 11.9% | 14.0% | 2017 | 25.0% | 5.3% | 11.5% | Home | 34.7% | 12.7% | 23.1% | L14 Days | 23.3% | 0.0% | 6.6% |
| Derek Holland | White Sox | L2 Years | 34.2% | 12.2% | 18.5% | 2017 | 43.1% | 11.1% | 27.7% | Road | 34.4% | 13.0% | 15.3% | L14 Days | 50.0% | 25.0% | 31.2% |
| Francisco Liriano | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 29.7% | 15.2% | 7.7% | 2017 | 26.5% | 7.1% | 18.3% | Home | 35.4% | 12.2% | 18.1% | L14 Days | 15.6% | 0.0% | 6.2% |
| Ivan Nova | Pirates | L2 Years | 33.6% | 14.5% | 15.1% | 2017 | 33.3% | 8.0% | 14.9% | Road | 36.9% | 17.1% | 21.6% | L14 Days | 31.0% | 18.2% | 14.3% |
| Jaime Garcia | Braves | L2 Years | 29.8% | 15.0% | 9.3% | 2017 | 33.3% | 14.8% | 2.5% | Road | 30.3% | 14.8% | 6.5% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 7.1% | -8.4% |
| Jason Hammel | Royals | L2 Years | 33.0% | 12.6% | 14.1% | 2017 | 33.3% | 0.0% | 9.5% | Home | 29.0% | 7.6% | 6.8% | L14 Days | 35.7% | 0.0% | 10.7% |
| Jesse Chavez | Angels | L2 Years | 31.1% | 13.4% | 13.9% | 2017 | 29.4% | 18.2% | 16.2% | Road | 33.0% | 9.7% | 21.7% | L14 Days | 30.8% | 22.2% | 12.8% |
| Jhoulys Chacin | Padres | L2 Years | 32.4% | 12.2% | 14.3% | 2017 | 30.4% | 14.8% | 13.0% | Road | 35.4% | 17.9% | 18.5% | L14 Days | 34.5% | 12.5% | 17.3% |
| Jimmy Nelson | Brewers | L2 Years | 31.4% | 13.3% | 11.8% | 2017 | 32.4% | 10.7% | 19.7% | Home | 33.3% | 14.6% | 11.9% | L14 Days | 38.9% | 15.4% | 25.0% |
| Joe Musgrove | Astros | L2 Years | 32.9% | 14.3% | 14.9% | 2017 | 28.8% | 15.4% | 11.0% | Home | 31.3% | 9.6% | 10.2% | L14 Days | 29.7% | 21.4% | 18.9% |
| John Lackey | Cubs | L2 Years | 31.7% | 12.0% | 14.7% | 2017 | 31.4% | 20.8% | 14.3% | Road | 36.4% | 14.8% | 23.8% | L14 Days | 39.0% | 30.8% | 21.9% |
| Matt Andriese | Rays | L2 Years | 34.8% | 12.6% | 16.8% | 2017 | 47.0% | 25.0% | 28.8% | Road | 35.9% | 14.1% | 19.3% | L14 Days | 48.5% | 33.3% | 33.3% |
| Matt Cain | Giants | L2 Years | 32.9% | 14.2% | 13.7% | 2017 | 29.0% | 10.0% | 14.5% | Home | 29.4% | 12.5% | 8.6% | L14 Days | 24.3% | 5.6% | 5.4% |
| Michael Fulmer | Tigers | L2 Years | 30.6% | 11.7% | 11.8% | 2017 | 32.4% | 15.0% | 16.2% | Home | 32.4% | 10.1% | 13.6% | L14 Days | 27.0% | 22.2% | 8.1% |
| Michael Pineda | Yankees | L2 Years | 31.6% | 16.9% | 14.4% | 2017 | 28.3% | 23.8% | 15.0% | Home | 34.1% | 22.2% | 18.7% | L14 Days | 32.4% | 25.0% | 17.7% |
| Mike Leake | Cardinals | L2 Years | 28.9% | 12.4% | 11.4% | 2017 | 18.8% | 0.0% | -2.5% | Home | 22.8% | 15.3% | 2.9% | L14 Days | 22.0% | 0.0% | -2.4% |
| Phil Hughes | Twins | L2 Years | 34.9% | 12.6% | 19.5% | 2017 | 50.0% | 9.7% | 37.5% | Road | 39.7% | 7.8% | 23.1% | L14 Days | 50.0% | 8.3% | 36.1% |
| Stephen Strasburg | Nationals | L2 Years | 27.5% | 11.7% | 5.4% | 2017 | 26.7% | 5.3% | 2.7% | Home | 29.9% | 12.9% | 11.1% | L14 Days | 23.5% | 14.3% | -3.0% |
| Steven Wright | Red Sox | L2 Years | 31.2% | 10.6% | 8.7% | 2017 | 41.7% | 29.2% | 26.4% | Home | 28.2% | 12.0% | 6.4% | L14 Days | 31.0% | 15.4% | 9.6% |
| Tyler Anderson | Rockies | L2 Years | 28.9% | 14.3% | 4.9% | 2017 | 31.7% | 20.7% | 8.5% | Road | 27.8% | 17.4% | 5.6% | L14 Days | 22.0% | 23.5% | 0.0% |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | Orioles | L2 Years | 29.4% | 12.1% | 10.3% | 2017 | 33.3% | 16.7% | 12.1% | Road | 30.0% | 8.0% | 10.7% | L14 Days | 31.3% | 9.1% | 9.4% |
| Yovani Gallardo | Mariners | L2 Years | 26.1% | 9.9% | 9.3% | 2017 | 24.7% | 10.0% | 5.2% | Road | 28.8% | 11.8% | 10.0% | L14 Days | 27.5% | 9.1% | 15.0% |
| Yu Darvish | Rangers | L2 Years | 31.2% | 12.7% | 11.1% | 2017 | 34.9% | 15.4% | 22.8% | Home | 36.9% | 14.1% | 20.9% | L14 Days | 29.4% | 27.3% | 17.6% |
| Zach Eflin | Phillies | L2 Years | 33.3% | 12.0% | 15.5% | 2017 | 34.3% | 5.3% | 14.3% | Road | 37.8% | 12.3% | 20.5% | L14 Days | 34.3% | 5.3% | 14.3% |
| Zack Greinke | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 29.3% | 10.4% | 8.9% | 2017 | 37.5% | 7.1% | 21.6% | Home | 36.0% | 10.7% | 18.2% | L14 Days | 34.6% | 7.1% | 20.0% |
| Zack Wheeler | Mets | L2 Years | 32.8% | 13.6% | 9.8% | 2017 | 32.8% | 13.6% | 9.8% | Road | 18.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | L14 Days | 41.9% | 14.3% | 22.5% |
Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Astros | Home | 30.3% | 16.3% | 10.3% | RH | 33.9% | 14.5% | 14.2% | L7Days | 34.8% | 14.3% | 15.3% |
| Phillies | Road | 30.9% | 12.0% | 7.4% | RH | 29.5% | 13.3% | 6.5% | L7Days | 35.3% | 16.2% | 9.9% |
| Cardinals | Home | 28.1% | 10.4% | 8.4% | RH | 30.2% | 12.4% | 11.0% | L7Days | 35.6% | 11.1% | 12.8% |
| Pirates | Road | 28.2% | 8.1% | 7.1% | RH | 27.2% | 7.4% | 4.9% | L7Days | 25.5% | 10.2% | 5.6% |
| Mariners | Road | 29.3% | 10.4% | 11.3% | RH | 30.5% | 11.2% | 12.2% | L7Days | 38.4% | 13.3% | 25.4% |
| Tigers | Home | 48.9% | 12.0% | 33.9% | LH | 36.1% | 15.9% | 16.7% | L7Days | 39.2% | 11.8% | 18.7% |
| Rays | Road | 32.7% | 16.8% | 9.0% | LH | 34.9% | 9.5% | 9.2% | L7Days | 31.5% | 14.3% | 7.0% |
| Marlins | Home | 33.9% | 16.7% | 12.9% | RH | 31.5% | 15.1% | 11.9% | L7Days | 26.1% | 11.4% | 4.5% |
| Brewers | Home | 39.8% | 22.6% | 20.8% | LH | 42.0% | 30.6% | 24.4% | L7Days | 38.0% | 22.2% | 20.9% |
| Twins | Road | 37.1% | 11.6% | 25.0% | RH | 34.6% | 11.0% | 19.2% | L7Days | 35.9% | 14.0% | 23.9% |
| Rangers | Home | 34.6% | 17.1% | 15.1% | RH | 33.3% | 15.2% | 14.1% | L7Days | 34.3% | 11.5% | 12.4% |
| Giants | Home | 21.2% | 5.4% | -1.0% | RH | 26.8% | 6.8% | 8.0% | L7Days | 20.4% | 7.1% | -2.2% |
| Braves | Road | 29.2% | 11.7% | 10.0% | RH | 30.3% | 11.7% | 12.7% | L7Days | 31.9% | 10.8% | 11.8% |
| Athletics | Road | 40.1% | 10.2% | 21.4% | RH | 35.8% | 14.6% | 19.4% | L7Days | 35.7% | 12.5% | 25.0% |
| Red Sox | Home | 38.9% | 6.0% | 19.6% | RH | 37.6% | 6.1% | 18.3% | L7Days | 31.5% | 13.9% | 5.3% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 28.2% | 9.4% | 7.2% | RH | 30.0% | 10.6% | 7.4% | L7Days | 31.1% | 14.5% | 11.4% |
| Padres | Road | 31.9% | 15.0% | 11.2% | RH | 29.7% | 16.4% | 8.5% | L7Days | 34.4% | 16.7% | 16.6% |
| White Sox | Road | 23.9% | 12.4% | 8.8% | RH | 26.1% | 11.4% | 6.7% | L7Days | 29.0% | 12.2% | 6.2% |
| Orioles | Road | 37.7% | 18.8% | 18.8% | RH | 30.9% | 15.0% | 10.8% | L7Days | 29.3% | 12.3% | 11.6% |
| Reds | Road | 30.0% | 14.8% | 5.9% | RH | 29.4% | 12.2% | 7.3% | L7Days | 35.8% | 17.6% | 13.0% |
| Royals | Home | 28.8% | 9.2% | 7.4% | RH | 29.1% | 12.1% | 7.0% | L7Days | 29.6% | 10.0% | 9.9% |
| Mets | Road | 34.5% | 15.8% | 18.1% | RH | 29.3% | 10.9% | 10.3% | L7Days | 32.8% | 8.3% | 11.7% |
| Cubs | Road | 29.3% | 11.1% | 9.5% | RH | 28.2% | 8.9% | 10.8% | L7Days | 31.1% | 13.6% | 13.1% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 37.6% | 16.7% | 24.2% | LH | 33.0% | 8.2% | 18.7% | L7Days | 35.6% | 20.7% | 19.4% |
| Yankees | Home | 33.7% | 21.2% | 12.5% | RH | 31.3% | 15.1% | 10.1% | L7Days | 35.0% | 18.5% | 16.0% |
| Indians | Home | 32.0% | 16.9% | 14.8% | RH | 34.6% | 14.2% | 16.7% | L7Days | 27.0% | 18.9% | 5.0% |
| Angels | Road | 28.5% | 9.4% | 6.5% | RH | 27.0% | 12.4% | 5.3% | L7Days | 23.6% | 8.6% | 0.0% |
| Dodgers | Home | 35.8% | 12.5% | 22.3% | RH | 32.9% | 11.0% | 15.8% | L7Days | 30.5% | 6.7% | 15.2% |
| Rockies | Road | 34.3% | 11.1% | 11.8% | RH | 31.4% | 12.2% | 10.1% | L7Days | 37.3% | 17.1% | 20.9% |
| Nationals | Home | 31.5% | 14.3% | 13.6% | RH | 30.2% | 14.0% | 14.0% | L7Days | 32.8% | 18.6% | 15.9% |
K/SwStr Chart (2016 LG AVG – 20.2 K% – 9.5 SwStr% – 2.13 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Triggs | OAK | 14.3% | 8.9% | 1.61 | 14.3% | 8.9% | 1.61 |
| Brandon McCarthy | LOS | 24.2% | 9.3% | 2.60 | 24.2% | 9.3% | 2.60 |
| Bronson Arroyo | CIN | 18.0% | 8.3% | 2.17 | 18.0% | 8.3% | 2.17 |
| Dan Straily | MIA | 28.9% | 12.2% | 2.37 | 28.9% | 12.2% | 2.37 |
| Danny Salazar | CLE | 35.6% | 16.7% | 2.13 | 35.6% | 16.7% | 2.13 |
| Derek Holland | CHW | 19.8% | 8.4% | 2.36 | 19.8% | 8.4% | 2.36 |
| Francisco Liriano | TOR | 23.8% | 10.5% | 2.27 | 23.8% | 10.5% | 2.27 |
| Ivan Nova | PIT | 14.4% | 5.9% | 2.44 | 14.4% | 5.9% | 2.44 |
| Jaime Garcia | ATL | 14.0% | 10.0% | 1.40 | 14.0% | 10.0% | 1.40 |
| Jason Hammel | KAN | 15.7% | 8.3% | 1.89 | 15.7% | 8.3% | 1.89 |
| Jesse Chavez | ANA | 23.0% | 10.9% | 2.11 | 23.0% | 10.9% | 2.11 |
| Jhoulys Chacin | SDG | 16.9% | 6.8% | 2.49 | 16.9% | 6.8% | 2.49 |
| Jimmy Nelson | MIL | 20.6% | 8.1% | 2.54 | 20.6% | 8.1% | 2.54 |
| Joe Musgrove | HOU | 13.8% | 7.1% | 1.94 | 13.8% | 7.1% | 1.94 |
| John Lackey | CHC | 25.0% | 9.7% | 2.58 | 25.0% | 9.7% | 2.58 |
| Matt Andriese | TAM | 19.8% | 9.8% | 2.02 | 19.8% | 9.8% | 2.02 |
| Matt Cain | SFO | 16.1% | 6.3% | 2.56 | 16.1% | 6.3% | 2.56 |
| Michael Fulmer | DET | 23.2% | 9.7% | 2.39 | 23.2% | 9.7% | 2.39 |
| Michael Pineda | NYY | 31.5% | 13.5% | 2.33 | 31.5% | 13.5% | 2.33 |
| Mike Leake | STL | 19.2% | 7.5% | 2.56 | 19.2% | 7.5% | 2.56 |
| Phil Hughes | MIN | 14.4% | 6.0% | 2.40 | 14.4% | 6.0% | 2.40 |
| Stephen Strasburg | WAS | 26.1% | 11.1% | 2.35 | 26.1% | 11.1% | 2.35 |
| Steven Wright | BOS | 10.3% | 6.4% | 1.61 | 10.3% | 6.4% | 1.61 |
| Tyler Anderson | COL | 19.6% | 11.7% | 1.68 | 19.6% | 11.7% | 1.68 |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | 13.3% | 6.0% | 2.22 | 13.3% | 6.0% | 2.22 |
| Yovani Gallardo | SEA | 16.0% | 9.2% | 1.74 | 16.0% | 9.2% | 1.74 |
| Yu Darvish | TEX | 24.4% | 10.8% | 2.26 | 24.4% | 10.8% | 2.26 |
| Zach Eflin | PHI | 15.2% | 5.2% | 2.92 | 15.2% | 5.2% | 2.92 |
| Zack Greinke | ARI | 24.8% | 12.9% | 1.92 | 24.8% | 12.9% | 1.92 |
| Zack Wheeler | NYM | 23.6% | 11.0% | 2.15 | 23.6% | 11.0% | 2.15 |
Just one pitcher the entire day on the high end and he may be the least usable arm on the night slate.
ERA Estimators Chart (2016 LG AVG – 4.34 ERA – 4.30 SIERA – 4.24 xFIP – 4.30 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | Season DRA | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Triggs | OAK | 2.42 | 4.44 | 2.02 | 4.48 | 2.06 | 3.33 | 0.91 | 2.38 | -0.04 | 2.42 | 4.44 | 2.02 | 4.48 | 2.06 | 3.33 | 0.91 |
| Brandon McCarthy | LOS | 2.25 | 3.68 | 1.43 | 3.41 | 1.16 | 3.22 | 0.97 | 2.34 | 0.09 | 2.25 | 3.68 | 1.43 | 3.41 | 1.16 | 3.22 | 0.97 |
| Bronson Arroyo | CIN | 6.86 | 4.27 | -2.59 | 4.46 | -2.4 | 5.88 | -0.98 | 12.44 | 5.58 | 6.86 | 4.27 | -2.59 | 4.46 | -2.4 | 5.88 | -0.98 |
| Dan Straily | MIA | 3.92 | 3.53 | -0.39 | 3.74 | -0.18 | 3.99 | 0.07 | 2.17 | -1.75 | 3.92 | 3.53 | -0.39 | 3.74 | -0.18 | 3.99 | 0.07 |
| Danny Salazar | CLE | 4.37 | 2.85 | -1.52 | 2.87 | -1.5 | 2.09 | -2.28 | 1.45 | -2.92 | 4.37 | 2.86 | -1.51 | 2.87 | -1.5 | 2.09 | -2.28 |
| Derek Holland | CHW | 1.99 | 4.4 | 2.41 | 4.67 | 2.68 | 4.47 | 2.48 | 4.28 | 2.29 | 1.99 | 4.4 | 2.41 | 4.67 | 2.68 | 4.47 | 2.48 |
| Francisco Liriano | TOR | 4.58 | 4.42 | -0.16 | 4.13 | -0.45 | 3.59 | -0.99 | 2.42 | -2.16 | 4.58 | 4.43 | -0.15 | 4.13 | -0.45 | 3.59 | -0.99 |
| Ivan Nova | PIT | 2 | 3.85 | 1.85 | 3.57 | 1.57 | 3.05 | 1.05 | 4.84 | 2.84 | 2 | 3.85 | 1.85 | 3.57 | 1.57 | 3.05 | 1.05 |
| Jaime Garcia | ATL | 4.24 | 4.86 | 0.62 | 4.66 | 0.42 | 5.03 | 0.79 | 7.69 | 3.45 | 4.24 | 4.86 | 0.62 | 4.66 | 0.42 | 5.03 | 0.79 |
| Jason Hammel | KAN | 5.3 | 5.19 | -0.11 | 5.64 | 0.34 | 3.4 | -1.9 | 5.57 | 0.27 | 5.3 | 5.2 | -0.1 | 5.64 | 0.34 | 3.4 | -1.9 |
| Jesse Chavez | ANA | 4.13 | 3.83 | -0.3 | 3.66 | -0.47 | 4.35 | 0.22 | 3.95 | -0.18 | 4.13 | 3.83 | -0.3 | 3.66 | -0.47 | 4.35 | 0.22 |
| Jhoulys Chacin | SDG | 5.9 | 4.28 | -1.62 | 4.16 | -1.74 | 4.45 | -1.45 | 4.98 | -0.92 | 5.9 | 4.28 | -1.62 | 4.16 | -1.74 | 4.45 | -1.45 |
| Jimmy Nelson | MIL | 4.56 | 4.17 | -0.39 | 4.37 | -0.19 | 4.11 | -0.45 | 6.58 | 2.02 | 4.56 | 4.18 | -0.38 | 4.37 | -0.19 | 4.11 | -0.45 |
| Joe Musgrove | HOU | 5.91 | 4.66 | -1.25 | 4.7 | -1.21 | 5.17 | -0.74 | 9.48 | 3.57 | 5.91 | 4.66 | -1.25 | 4.7 | -1.21 | 5.17 | -0.74 |
| John Lackey | CHC | 4.88 | 3.49 | -1.39 | 3.42 | -1.46 | 4.51 | -0.37 | 5.48 | 0.60 | 4.88 | 3.49 | -1.39 | 3.42 | -1.46 | 4.51 | -0.37 |
| Matt Andriese | TAM | 3.86 | 4 | 0.14 | 3.79 | -0.07 | 5.35 | 1.49 | 4.10 | 0.24 | 3.86 | 4 | 0.14 | 3.79 | -0.07 | 5.35 | 1.49 |
| Matt Cain | SFO | 2.42 | 4.9 | 2.48 | 5 | 2.58 | 4.58 | 2.16 | 6.01 | 3.59 | 2.42 | 4.91 | 2.49 | 5 | 2.58 | 4.58 | 2.16 |
| Michael Fulmer | DET | 2.88 | 3.45 | 0.57 | 3.38 | 0.5 | 3.65 | 0.77 | 1.16 | -1.72 | 2.88 | 3.45 | 0.57 | 3.38 | 0.5 | 3.65 | 0.77 |
| Michael Pineda | NYY | 3.86 | 2.35 | -1.51 | 2.32 | -1.54 | 3.66 | -0.2 | 1.19 | -2.67 | 3.86 | 2.35 | -1.51 | 2.32 | -1.54 | 3.66 | -0.2 |
| Mike Leake | STL | 1.32 | 3.24 | 1.92 | 3.13 | 1.81 | 1.95 | 0.63 | 2.26 | 0.94 | 1.32 | 3.24 | 1.92 | 3.13 | 1.81 | 1.95 | 0.63 |
| Phil Hughes | MIN | 4.71 | 4.66 | -0.05 | 4.83 | 0.12 | 4.31 | -0.4 | 6.54 | 1.83 | 4.71 | 4.66 | -0.05 | 4.83 | 0.12 | 4.31 | -0.4 |
| Stephen Strasburg | WAS | 2.89 | 2.94 | 0.05 | 2.74 | -0.15 | 2.11 | -0.78 | 1.89 | -1.00 | 2.89 | 2.94 | 0.05 | 2.74 | -0.15 | 2.11 | -0.78 |
| Steven Wright | BOS | 8.66 | 4.87 | -3.79 | 5.16 | -3.5 | 8.12 | -0.54 | 16.56 | 7.90 | 8.66 | 4.88 | -3.78 | 5.16 | -3.5 | 8.12 | -0.54 |
| Tyler Anderson | COL | 7.11 | 4.11 | -3 | 4.03 | -3.08 | 5.26 | -1.85 | 4.96 | -2.15 | 7.11 | 4.11 | -3 | 4.03 | -3.08 | 5.26 | -1.85 |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | 5.95 | 5.71 | -0.24 | 5.55 | -0.4 | 6.23 | 0.28 | 10.05 | 4.10 | 5.95 | 5.72 | -0.23 | 5.55 | -0.4 | 6.23 | 0.28 |
| Yovani Gallardo | SEA | 4.84 | 4.23 | -0.61 | 3.92 | -0.92 | 3.64 | -1.2 | 5.99 | 1.15 | 4.84 | 4.24 | -0.6 | 3.92 | -0.92 | 3.64 | -1.2 |
| Yu Darvish | TEX | 3.03 | 3.86 | 0.83 | 3.55 | 0.52 | 3.86 | 0.83 | 2.03 | -1.00 | 3.03 | 3.87 | 0.84 | 3.55 | 0.52 | 3.86 | 0.83 |
| Zach Eflin | PHI | 2.25 | 4.92 | 2.67 | 5.35 | 3.1 | 3.89 | 1.64 | 2.61 | 0.36 | 2.25 | 4.92 | 2.67 | 5.35 | 3.1 | 3.89 | 1.64 |
| Zack Greinke | ARI | 2.93 | 3.14 | 0.21 | 3.01 | 0.08 | 2.38 | -0.55 | 1.54 | -1.39 | 2.93 | 3.14 | 0.21 | 3.01 | 0.08 | 2.38 | -0.55 |
| Zack Wheeler | NYM | 5.4 | 3.54 | -1.86 | 3.64 | -1.76 | 3.8 | -1.6 | 5.09 | -0.31 | 5.4 | 3.55 | -1.85 | 3.64 | -1.76 | 3.8 | -1.6 |
BABIP & Statcast Chart (2016 LG AVG – .298 BABIP – 44.3 GB% – 20.9 LD% – 9.5 IFFB% – 87.2 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | GB% | Pitcher LD% | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact | Exit Velocity | Barrels BBE | Barrels PA | BBE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Triggs | OAK | 0.270 | 0.214 | -0.056 | 54.3% | 0.114 | 8.3% | 91.1% | 88.5 | 2.80% | 2.80% | 71 |
| Brandon McCarthy | LOS | 0.284 | 0.271 | -0.013 | 47.5% | 0.203 | 10.5% | 87.7% | 84.3 | 3.30% | 3.30% | 61 |
| Bronson Arroyo | CIN | 0.282 | 0.242 | -0.04 | 36.4% | 0.182 | 3.3% | 90.0% | 88.1 | 8.80% | 8.80% | 68 |
| Dan Straily | FLA | 0.275 | 0.217 | -0.058 | 40.4% | 0.149 | 23.8% | 85.3% | 86.8 | 8.20% | 8.20% | 49 |
| Danny Salazar | CLE | 0.323 | 0.431 | 0.108 | 31.4% | 0.314 | 21.1% | 76.3% | 87.3 | 7.70% | 7.70% | 52 |
| Derek Holland | CHW | 0.252 | 0.222 | -0.03 | 38.5% | 0.2 | 7.4% | 90.9% | 91.2 | 7.70% | 7.70% | 65 |
| Francisco Liriano | TOR | 0.304 | 0.333 | 0.029 | 43.8% | 0.271 | 0.0% | 89.7% | 88 | 8.20% | 8.20% | 49 |
| Ivan Nova | PIT | 0.302 | 0.247 | -0.055 | 48.2% | 0.217 | 12.0% | 95.4% | 86.3 | 5.70% | 5.70% | 87 |
| Jaime Garcia | ATL | 0.286 | 0.257 | -0.029 | 42.9% | 0.221 | 14.8% | 91.7% | 86 | 6.40% | 6.40% | 78 |
| Jason Hammel | KAN | 0.282 | 0.365 | 0.083 | 34.9% | 0.238 | 11.5% | 89.4% | 87.8 | 1.60% | 1.60% | 63 |
| Jesse Chavez | ANA | 0.275 | 0.313 | 0.038 | 45.6% | 0.221 | 4.5% | 85.7% | 88.4 | 5.90% | 5.90% | 68 |
| Jhoulys Chacin | SDG | 0.277 | 0.295 | 0.018 | 51.1% | 0.196 | 7.4% | 89.4% | 86.1 | 6.50% | 6.50% | 92 |
| Jimmy Nelson | MIL | 0.308 | 0.294 | -0.014 | 46.4% | 0.13 | 0.0% | 88.1% | 87 | 4.20% | 4.20% | 71 |
| Joe Musgrove | HOU | 0.275 | 0.300 | 0.025 | 45.8% | 0.181 | 7.7% | 88.8% | 87.1 | 4.10% | 4.10% | 73 |
| John Lackey | CHC | 0.280 | 0.277 | -0.003 | 47.1% | 0.176 | 8.3% | 87.7% | 87.4 | 10.00% | 10.00% | 70 |
| Matt Andriese | TAM | 0.274 | 0.279 | 0.005 | 47.0% | 0.227 | 10.0% | 85.2% | 89 | 9.10% | 9.10% | 66 |
| Matt Cain | SFO | 0.288 | 0.212 | -0.076 | 41.2% | 0.147 | 13.3% | 88.4% | 88.7 | 2.90% | 2.90% | 69 |
| Michael Fulmer | DET | 0.314 | 0.231 | -0.083 | 44.1% | 0.265 | 5.0% | 86.1% | 86.9 | 8.80% | 8.80% | 68 |
| Michael Pineda | NYY | 0.271 | 0.291 | 0.02 | 47.5% | 0.169 | 0.0% | 85.9% | 87.5 | 5.00% | 5.00% | 60 |
| Mike Leake | STL | 0.307 | 0.250 | -0.057 | 58.2% | 0.165 | 0.0% | 92.0% | 85.3 | 2.50% | 2.50% | 80 |
| Phil Hughes | MIN | 0.262 | 0.304 | 0.042 | 31.9% | 0.25 | 9.7% | 93.2% | 91.2 | 12.50% | 12.50% | 72 |
| Stephen Strasburg | WAS | 0.289 | 0.284 | -0.005 | 56.0% | 0.187 | 5.3% | 87.3% | 89.7 | 10.70% | 10.70% | 75 |
| Steven Wright | BOS | 0.294 | 0.400 | 0.106 | 44.4% | 0.222 | 4.2% | 92.1% | 90.9 | 12.50% | 12.50% | 72 |
| Tyler Anderson | COL | 0.295 | 0.316 | 0.021 | 39.2% | 0.241 | 17.2% | 83.4% | 84.6 | 9.80% | 9.80% | 82 |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | 0.292 | 0.258 | -0.034 | 42.2% | 0.203 | 16.7% | 87.8% | 86.9 | 6.10% | 6.10% | 66 |
| Yovani Gallardo | SEA | 0.300 | 0.347 | 0.047 | 49.3% | 0.24 | 10.0% | 84.4% | 85.6 | 3.90% | 3.90% | 77 |
| Yu Darvish | TEX | 0.271 | 0.215 | -0.056 | 43.4% | 0.253 | 0.0% | 84.1% | 87.4 | 6.00% | 6.00% | 83 |
| Zach Eflin | PHI | 0.272 | 0.147 | -0.125 | 34.3% | 0.114 | 0.0% | 96.3% | 86.6 | 2.90% | 2.90% | 35 |
| Zack Greinke | ARI | 0.300 | 0.326 | 0.026 | 47.1% | 0.207 | 14.3% | 84.7% | 89.8 | 5.70% | 5.70% | 88 |
| Zack Wheeler | NYM | 0.308 | 0.259 | -0.049 | 45.9% | 0.18 | 4.5% | 84.8% | 88.2 | 8.20% | 8.20% | 61 |
h2. Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
Value Tier One
Brandon McCarthy (3) has been pretty great in every way imaginable this year and has one of the stronger matchups on the slate in a great park. The price is beginning to creep up ($8.9K on DK), but this is not a night where you’re going to find a lot of pitching value.
Value Tier Two
Yu Darvish (1) has not been as effective as last season and is easily the most expensive pitcher on the board, but still has above average stuff and isn’t in a terrible spot tonight despite the park.
Zack Greinke (2) is the second most expensive pitcher on the slate, but he’s been effective this season, there’s no more denying it. The park, and not reduced velocity, is currently the only real reason for concern until he shows otherwise.
Value Tier Three
Andrew Triggs is may have a below average K%, but his SwStr% has been elite in half his starts, while the contact generated has been nearly ideal. The Astros have been one of the best offenses in baseball this month, retaining their power from last year without striking out nearly as much.
Jesse Chavez has been a slightly above average pitcher so far and is facing an average team at a reasonable or even low cost ($6.4K on FD). The biggest issue in facing the Rangers is the park, which makes the matchup an overall slight negative for him.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Ivan Nova doesn’t have a lot of upside, but at least he’s missed a few more bats over his last two starts and won’t hurt himself with walks. You generally don’t want to pay this much for a contact prone pitcher, but he’s in a good spot and you may have to leave your comfort level on this slate.
Dan Straily would generally be off our board on most slates with a cost this high against an offense that is not striking out. He’s a flawed pitcher, whose breakout start came against the Padres, but he did have an elite SwStr% in one additional start.
Tyler Anderson is in a dangerous spot and has allowed at least four runs in every start, but there may still be upside in his left arm and he has one of the lowest price tags on the board.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
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