Advanced Stats - Pitching: Tuesday, April 26th
With a full slate, we have a lot to get to and we’ll do that quickly. A reminder from yesterday that we’ve finally updated the park factors and are now using 2016 defensive statistics. A lot of top pitchers are on the mound today, which may mean more diversity, but also allows you to more easily pass on some of those tougher decisions and needless risks.
New season changes to the article were outlined on Opening Day, which you can find here so we won’t repeat those again.
Don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, and Kevin’s weather report as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch.
Most stats are pulled directly from the Fangraphs.com database. If a stat is used that you are not familiar with and want to learn more about, their glossary does a terrific job of explaining all of the advanced stats used here.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
We’re using Seamheads.com three-year park factors. Home team is in bold. Team Def = UZR/150. L2Yrs is a rolling calendar. Hm/Rd xFIP is since the start of the 2015 season. Opp team offensive stats are wRC+.
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB/FB L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Griffin | TEX | 14.1 | 5.15 | 5.67 | 0.72 | 1.07 | 3.37 | 4.43 | NYY | 82 | 107 | 78 |
| Bartolo Colon | NYM | -15.4 | 3.88 | 6.34 | 1.11 | 0.87 | 3.77 | 3.85 | CIN | 72 | 65 | 66 |
| Brandon Finnegan | CIN | -7.7 | 3.83 | 5.28 | 1.7 | 0.87 | 4.6 | 6.19 | NYM | 69 | 140 | 147 |
| Carlos Martinez | STL | -15 | 3.49 | 5.82 | 1.94 | 1.07 | 3.27 | 4.12 | ARI | 117 | 99 | 135 |
| Chris Sale | CHW | 16.1 | 2.55 | 6.76 | 1.12 | 1.02 | 2.33 | 3.11 | TOR | 130 | 104 | 137 |
| Clayton Kershaw | LOS | 3.5 | 2.2 | 7.21 | 1.74 | 0.9 | 1.94 | 1.98 | FLA | 97 | 128 | 76 |
| Cody Anderson | CLE | 18.1 | 4.83 | 5.84 | 1.3 | 1.03 | 4.25 | 3.71 | MIN | 102 | 97 | 91 |
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | -0.5 | 3.03 | 7. | 3.24 | 0.9 | 3.49 | 3.27 | SEA | 64 | 94 | 108 |
| David Price | BOS | -2.1 | 2.99 | 6.99 | 1.09 | 0.96 | 3.24 | 2.85 | ATL | 60 | 41 | 58 |
| Edinson Volquez | KAN | 10.2 | 4.27 | 6.05 | 1.46 | 0.92 | 4.27 | 5 | ANA | 85 | 67 | 82 |
| Gerrit Cole | PIT | 14.2 | 3.21 | 6.32 | 1.54 | 1.37 | 3.12 | 2.77 | COL | 90 | 88 | 63 |
| Jake Odorizzi | TAM | -4.2 | 3.71 | 5.77 | 0.74 | 0.97 | 3.76 | 3.95 | BAL | 121 | 122 | 74 |
| James Shields | SDG | 3.2 | 3.74 | 6.4 | 1.31 | 0.89 | 3.84 | 4.5 | SFO | 126 | 110 | 115 |
| Jered Weaver | ANA | 15.4 | 4.52 | 6.19 | 0.71 | 0.92 | 4.23 | 6.72 | KAN | 84 | 95 | 117 |
| Jimmy Nelson | MIL | -5.2 | 4.04 | 5.89 | 1.63 | 1.03 | 4.82 | 5.09 | CHC | 83 | 117 | 125 |
| Johnny Cueto | SFO | -2.1 | 3.51 | 6.85 | 1.23 | 0.89 | 3.82 | 3.64 | SDG | 93 | 58 | 99 |
| Jorge de la Rosa | COL | 4.2 | 4.08 | 5.72 | 1.75 | 1.37 | 4.01 | 2.57 | PIT | 113 | 127 | 115 |
| Kyle Hendricks | CHC | 13.9 | 3.54 | 5.79 | 1.79 | 1.03 | 2.88 | 3.29 | MIL | 62 | 87 | 105 |
| Luis Severino | NYY | -12 | 3.71 | 5.64 | 1.95 | 1.07 | 3.21 | 3.66 | TEX | 91 | 87 | 92 |
| Matt Wisler | ATL | -7.5 | 4.82 | 5.73 | 0.81 | 0.96 | 5.05 | 4.03 | BOS | 122 | 118 | 113 |
| Max Scherzer | WAS | 3.7 | 2.9 | 6.78 | 0.82 | 1.02 | 3.25 | 4.06 | PHI | 91 | 81 | 99 |
| Mike Pelfrey | DET | -3.9 | 4.73 | 5.39 | 1.97 | 1.01 | 4.17 | 7.17 | OAK | 106 | 90 | 115 |
| Nate Karns | SEA | -6.4 | 3.88 | 5.52 | 1.12 | 0.9 | 4.03 | 4.84 | HOU | 116 | 105 | 116 |
| R.A. Dickey | TOR | 2.7 | 4.37 | 6.38 | 1.16 | 1.02 | 4.52 | 5.17 | CHW | 74 | 80 | 122 |
| Rich Hill | OAK | -16.1 | 2.72 | 6. | 1.64 | 1.01 | 2.39 | 3.4 | DET | 90 | 121 | 62 |
| Ricky Nolasco | MIN | -4 | 3.89 | 5.61 | 1.16 | 1.03 | 4.47 | 3.87 | CLE | 112 | 128 | 119 |
| Shelby Miller | ARI | -6.2 | 4.42 | 5.92 | 1.18 | 1.07 | 3.83 | 11.36 | STL | 122 | 133 | 129 |
| Tom Koehler | FLA | 1.3 | 4.44 | 5.89 | 1.18 | 0.9 | 4.89 | 5.17 | LOS | 86 | 93 | 94 |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | -9.7 | 4.11 | 5.65 | 1.58 | 0.97 | 4.17 | 4.72 | TAM | 80 | 96 | 127 |
| Vincent Velasquez | PHI | -12.4 | 3.22 | 5.71 | 0.69 | 1.02 | 4.47 | 1.43 | WAS | 96 | 84 | 92 |
Bartolo Colon comes in throwing about an average of nearly 10 miles per hour slower than Syndergaard the next day. It’s almost the equivalent of seeing a knuckleball. Do you think hitters have a hard time adjusting? Perhaps that’s why he’s started the season so successfully. Another reason might be Philly twice and Cleveland, but Cincinnati isn’t such a step up in competition either. He’ll occasionally get hit hard, but you know he is going to throw strikes and is even missing more bats this year, though both of his double digit SwStr% games were against the Phillies, so there’s no expectation that will hold up. We know who he is. The Reds become an even more favorable opponent with Jay Bruce gone for a few days.
Chris Sale hasn’t missed as many bats through four starts, but an 11.1 SwStr% is nothing to scoff at and he’s hit 15% in two of four starts. It seems like randomness and I’d expect him to be among the elite soon enough. He has a 31.0 K% over the last two calendar years. This is one of the very few (you can probably count them on one hand that’s missing a few fingers) lefties that you’d even consider trusting against the Blue Jays. They have an 18.2 HR/FB, but 24.0 K% vs LHP so far.
Clayton Kershaw has done exactly what you’d expect him to do so far. At least seven innings with no more than one BB or two ERs in every start with a 27.0 K% and 13.4 SwStr%. Before you complain that he did even better than that last year, consider those numbers again. This has just about been his floor and it’s still awesome. The Marlins are a team and they will be facing him. It doesn’t much matter.
David Price has allowed at least five runs in two of his four starts. His velocity is significantly reduced, but he dropped two mph before (2013) and was fine. In fact, he has a habit of reduced velocity early on before jacking it up over the summer. That’s one of three reasons I’m not as concerned as I have been with some other reduced velocities. Secondly, look at his SwStr% below. Look at his K%. Look at his SwStr% again. It’s 16%!! He was pounded in two starts, but utterly dominant in two others, including against Toronto. Finally, reason number three why we’re not concerned, at least tonight: the Atlanta Braves, who were shut down by Rick Porcello last night and an obviously still off his game Matt Harvey over the weekend, along with basically every other pitcher they’ve faced this year. We’ll talk about some of the hard contact, if necessary, next time. Atlanta doesn’t know what that is.
Jake Odorizzi is probably one of the tougher remaining in his price range because you can’t drop everybody and just use the high priced guys. He’s an extreme fly ball pitcher (0.76 GB/FB career) in a good park, facing a team with a ton of power (15.6 HR/FB vs RHP). They also strike out at a 23.4% rate vs RHP. He’s off to an excellent start with his K and BB rates and has a career 5.2 HR/FB at the Trop without allowing one in two starts this year. His two road starts have been much worse though.
Johnny Cueto hasn’t exactly returned to old form with the Giants, but has pitched well overall, allowing just one HR and going at least seven innings in every start. Give me a guy I know will complete seven innings and I’ll use happily roster him many more times than not. The BABIP magic might be gone, but this is still a good pitcher, if not a great one anymore. He now also calls a great park home and faces an offense with a 24.8 K% vs RHP.
Kyle Hendricks has been in a couple of tough spots (ARI,STL) with underlying numbers better than his ERA. His 16.0 K-BB% is exactly where it was last year and he’s even got his GB rate up to 56.4% with his 8.2 SwStr% exactly where it’s been each year without waiver. He should probably be the same pitcher, right? The only difference is a 56.1 LOB%. Milwaukee has some pop (15.8 HR/FB vs RHP), but strikes out a lot (25.7 K%).
Max Scherzer has pitched four games entirely against the weaker competition of the NL East (everyone except the Mets) and has not fared particularly well. He has allowed most of Atlanta’s HRs this year, but despite the 14.3 HR/FB, he’s been generating a lot of weak contact (-5.7 Hard-Soft%, 85.6 mph aEV). The large drop in K% and SwStr% (15.3 to 10.2) is concerning, but he was probably over his head last year anyway. He gets the Phillies again and pitched his best game against them so far this season last time.
Rich Hill struck out 10 more Yankees in his last start. To review, he’s had exactly 10 Ks in five of his last eight starts now. If I’ve got a better than 50% chance of 10 Ks, I’m going to take it, right? His rough starts have come against Kansas City and as an emergency starter on Opening Day. The Tigers are tough on LHP (15.6 K%, 20.1 Hard-Soft%) and lean almost entirely RH. Hill has allowed a .357 wOBA against RHBs this year, but that’s almost entirely on walks (8 of 64). He’s struck out nearly a third of the righties he’s faced (21 of 64). He also has the lowest aEV (85.46 mph) on today’s board.
Vincent Velasquez had a bit of setback last time out, but didn’t pitch terribly and I think that helps us here by keeping his price reasonable. While I’d like to see him further develop a third pitch so he’s not fastball/curveball 90% of the time, those are two damn good pitches and the important thing is he hasn’t walked a batter since his first start. The Nationals have two LH batters that hit RH pitching very well. You know who they are. The rest of their lineup is full of RHBs who are below average vs RHPs.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.295 BABIP – 72.3 LOB% – 10.8 HR/FB)
A.J. Griffin (.220 BABIP – 76.9 LOB% – 8.0 HR/FB) has a 16.7 K% and there’s really no reason to venture here today.
Carlos Martinez (.200 BABIP – 81.4 LOB% – 8.3 HR/FB) is probably not going to often find himself here. However, his K and BB rates are almost exactly average so far with just five strikes in two of his three starts and a high of six. It’s difficult to say we’re concerned about any particular thing and it’s just three starts, there’s just a lot of talent on this board and perhaps there’s some hesitation in this park as a lot of games with quality pitchers have turned into shootouts early on, including last night. If he has a quality outing here, I’d expect he’d be back to full write ups again.
Edinson Volquez (.265 – 89.8 LOB% – 5.0 HR/FB) hasn’t allowed more than two runs in any of his four starts, although he’s had just one dominant outing and one even terrible one (four BBs, two Ks). He’s struck out more than five just once and has shown occasional glimpses of his former self (the not good one). Additionally, he hasn’t held the velocity from his first start and post-season last year. It’s dropped in each additional start as his SwStr had been below 7.5% in each of his last two starts. The Angels have scored at least four runs in three consecutive games and may be showing signs of coming out of their slumber (Pujols two HRs last night). I originally had him up above, but then realized this is another unnecessary risk and essentially talked myself out of him. I’m not sure he’s the rehabilitated pitcher I thought he might be a few weeks ago.
Matt Wisler (.207 BABIP – 76.0 LOB% – 10.7 HR/FB) has talent and improved peripherals, but a lot of his ERA drop is coming from BABIP. If Ortiz and Ramirez sit again though, a fly ball pitcher with average peripherals might be considered at a low price here. I don’t know that yet though and he’s allowed just a little too much hard contact (31.2 Hard%).
Mike Pelfrey (.367 BABIP – 71.9 LOB% – 16.7 HR/FB) additionally has a -5.6 K-BB%. With these numbers, how the hell does he have an ERA below five? Do runners get lost on the way to home plate? Is it invisible? The only thing I can even think of is he must be getting most of his outs via the double play with nobody ever taking the extra base.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Brandon Finnegan has a talented arm, but has not struck our more batters than he’s walked in a start since his first outing. In fact, 50% of his 18 strikeouts came in that first outing.
Cody Anderson has not lived up to those pre-season Matt Harvey comparisons. Or in some ways, if you’re talking about this year, maybe he has.
Dallas Keuchel was diagnosed by Dave Cameron a little over a week ago and while I concurred with all of it and added some additional issues, he went out and threw eight shutout innings that night. However, many of the same issues remained so we were off him again in his last start when he allowed six runs. His velocity has been well down in every start and he’s still not throwing as many strikes. What’s been different in each of his last two starts is a chase rate above 34% again and he got 23 swinging strikes in his last start! He’s still generating a lot of weak ground balls, but not as many and not as weak as last season. While I’m slightly less concerned about some of the issues, enough remain to pass on him when there are plenty of top arms to go around.
Gerrit Cole is in Colorado, yet I almost want to pull the trigger for $7.2K on DraftKings. The Rockies are atrocious and merely pumped up by their park. Only about half of their batters even belong in a major league lineup. The strike zone was outrageous last night, but that’s still little excuse for being shut down by Jeff Locke in Coors. I’d still caution against it and probably won’t have the guts to do it myself, but this may be one of the few occasions you could consider a pitcher at Coors. It’s a good pitcher at a low price. It’s not entirely nuts.
James Shields is now all of the HRs with none of the strikeouts? He’s still giving you six or seven innings of three run baseball, but is that really worth $8K in marginal matchups?
Jered Weaver should start throwing the knuckleball. “(player-popup)Doug Fister”:/players/doug-fister-10936’s fastball just lapped him.
Jimmy Nelson seems to get a lot of love from the DFS world, but rarely seems to reach his upside. His 9.4 BB% might be an issue against the Cubs (12.9 BB% vs RHP).
Jorge de la Rosa
Luis Severino would probably be a back of Tier Four guy below if his price tag were at $7K on both sites instead of the discrepancy. While he pitched better in his last start with a bit less hard contact, he’s allowed just 10 fly balls this year (3.3 GB/FB). It seems like too many hard hit grounders and line drives right now though. He should eventually start generating more swings and misses too, though his secondary stuff needs to improve.
Nate Karns is actually missing more bats, but has walked four in each of his last two starts and hasn’t completed six innings yet. Hard contact (33.9 Hard%, 15.7 HR/FB career) in the air (1.12 GB/FB career) has always been an issue and even more so with a 12.9 BB%. Safeco is still one of the most negative run environments, but we’ve seen a lot of parks regressing closer to standard in terms of HR rates recently and Safeco is no longer considered impossible to knock one out of, though still tougher prior to warming up. Despite their struggles and high strikeout rates, Houston can still hit HRs. At the end I’m going to mention HRs and Ks trading off pretty well for DFS purposes, but that’s only for pitchers with above average control. Solo HRs are find with a lot of strikeouts. Three run bombs are not.
R.A. Dickey has an above average SwStr% in each of his four starts. He also has his highest walk rate in over a decade.
Ricky Nolasco says No right at the beginning of his name and I’m going to listen. He’s had two very good starts and while the one against Kansas City is very impressive, the other was Milwaukee and he has a history of being Ricky No-lasco and possibly the only pitcher with a career ERA almost a run higher than his estimators.
Ubaldo Jimenez has pitched exactly five innings with four walks in each of his last two starts. I feel like I want to yell at him like a dog and send him into the corner when he does this (Bad Ubaldo!), especially because he’s named Ubaldo and sometimes goes through stretches where he does everything you tell him to do, but you know eventually he’s going to end up peeing on the floor again and you feel like it’s your fault because you should have known this was coming.
K/BB Chart
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Griffin | Rangers | L2 Years | 16.7% | 11.1% | Home | 25.0% | 8.3% | L14 Days | 23.9% | 13.0% |
| Bartolo Colon | Mets | L2 Years | 17.4% | 3.3% | Home | 19.1% | 2.9% | L14 Days | 18.4% | 4.1% |
| Brandon Finnegan | Reds | L2 Years | 22.9% | 10.7% | Road | 18.9% | 11.1% | L14 Days | 12.5% | 15.3% |
| Carlos Martinez | Cardinals | L2 Years | 23.6% | 8.7% | Road | 25.8% | 9.0% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 7.3% |
| Chris Sale | White Sox | L2 Years | 31.0% | 5.0% | Road | 34.2% | 4.2% | L14 Days | 22.6% | 0.0% |
| Clayton Kershaw | Dodgers | L2 Years | 32.7% | 4.4% | Home | 35.8% | 4.0% | L14 Days | 27.1% | 1.7% |
| Cody Anderson | Indians | L2 Years | 12.4% | 6.2% | Road | 11.0% | 4.0% | L14 Days | 18.6% | 2.3% |
| Dallas Keuchel | Astros | L2 Years | 20.8% | 6.0% | Road | 19.0% | 6.6% | L14 Days | 15.5% | 1.7% |
| David Price | Red Sox | L2 Years | 26.4% | 4.7% | Road | 25.4% | 6.6% | L14 Days | 30.6% | 5.6% |
| Edinson Volquez | Royals | L2 Years | 18.3% | 8.9% | Road | 19.4% | 9.1% | L14 Days | 13.5% | 9.6% |
| Gerrit Cole | Pirates | L2 Years | 24.6% | 5.9% | Road | 25.2% | 5.8% | L14 Days | 27.9% | 2.3% |
| Jake Odorizzi | Rays | L2 Years | 23.1% | 6.9% | Home | 25.0% | 6.7% | L14 Days | 19.6% | 4.4% |
| James Shields | Padres | L2 Years | 21.5% | 7.2% | Road | 22.4% | 8.8% | L14 Days | 20.8% | 11.3% |
| Jered Weaver | Angels | L2 Years | 16.2% | 6.1% | Home | 19.1% | 4.4% | L14 Days | 6.3% | 8.3% |
| Jimmy Nelson | Brewers | L2 Years | 19.2% | 8.0% | Road | 15.3% | 11.9% | L14 Days | 12.5% | 8.9% |
| Johnny Cueto | Giants | L2 Years | 22.4% | 5.8% | Home | 22.1% | 5.4% | L14 Days | 18.5% | 3.7% |
| Jorge de la Rosa | Rockies | L2 Years | 19.6% | 9.4% | Home | 23.5% | 12.1% | L14 Days | 30.0% | 5.0% |
| Kyle Hendricks | Cubs | L2 Years | 20.2% | 5.4% | Home | 24.7% | 5.7% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 4.0% |
| Luis Severino | Yankees | L2 Years | 20.5% | 7.0% | Road | 21.6% | 6.4% | L14 Days | 12.5% | 2.1% |
| Matt Wisler | Braves | L2 Years | 15.7% | 7.9% | Home | 15.2% | 7.8% | L14 Days | 18.5% | 5.6% |
| Max Scherzer | Nationals | L2 Years | 28.5% | 5.5% | Home | 28.2% | 4.5% | L14 Days | 20.5% | 7.7% |
| Mike Pelfrey | Tigers | L2 Years | 11.9% | 7.4% | Home | 13.8% | 6.0% | L14 Days | 9.6% | 21.2% |
| Nate Karns | Mariners | L2 Years | 23.8% | 9.3% | Home | 22.0% | 9.1% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 16.7% |
| R.A. Dickey | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 16.7% | 7.2% | Home | 17.0% | 8.4% | L14 Days | 15.2% | 13.0% |
| Rich Hill | Athletics | L2 Years | 33.5% | 9.1% | Road | 37.1% | 7.3% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 14.6% |
| Ricky Nolasco | Twins | L2 Years | 18.7% | 5.7% | Home | 13.0% | 5.7% | L14 Days | 18.2% | 5.5% |
| Shelby Miller | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 18.0% | 9.0% | Home | 22.0% | 8.2% | L14 Days | 9.1% | 36.4% |
| Tom Koehler | Marlins | L2 Years | 18.1% | 9.2% | Road | 15.8% | 9.9% | L14 Days | 14.3% | 7.1% |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | Orioles | L2 Years | 21.7% | 10.6% | Road | 20.4% | 10.2% | L14 Days | 23.9% | 17.4% |
| Vincent Velasquez | Phillies | L2 Years | 28.5% | 7.9% | Road | 26.7% | 13.3% | L14 Days | 40.0% | 0.0% |
K/BB Chart – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yankees | Road | 18.6% | 8.6% | RH | 18.9% | 8.8% | L7Days | 23.7% | 7.6% |
| Reds | Road | 21.5% | 6.3% | RH | 21.3% | 6.1% | L7Days | 24.1% | 5.5% |
| Mets | Home | 26.0% | 8.9% | LH | 22.7% | 9.3% | L7Days | 22.3% | 7.2% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 20.7% | 7.8% | RH | 19.0% | 6.7% | L7Days | 16.9% | 10.3% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 22.6% | 9.8% | LH | 24.0% | 6.0% | L7Days | 19.6% | 11.6% |
| Marlins | Road | 21.5% | 7.6% | LH | 21.9% | 11.0% | L7Days | 20.0% | 5.3% |
| Twins | Home | 16.3% | 9.4% | RH | 24.3% | 8.9% | L7Days | 24.7% | 10.7% |
| Mariners | Home | 21.2% | 9.4% | LH | 19.7% | 8.1% | L7Days | 18.3% | 10.8% |
| Braves | Home | 23.3% | 8.0% | LH | 23.7% | 5.4% | L7Days | 22.0% | 4.5% |
| Angels | Home | 14.6% | 8.5% | RH | 16.4% | 7.7% | L7Days | 13.6% | 8.9% |
| Rockies | Home | 20.2% | 10.0% | RH | 19.0% | 7.1% | L7Days | 21.2% | 9.7% |
| Orioles | Road | 25.3% | 7.9% | RH | 23.4% | 8.2% | L7Days | 23.6% | 7.5% |
| Giants | Home | 17.7% | 11.1% | RH | 14.9% | 10.9% | L7Days | 17.9% | 11.9% |
| Royals | Road | 19.9% | 6.6% | RH | 18.6% | 7.5% | L7Days | 14.7% | 8.4% |
| Cubs | Home | 20.0% | 14.5% | RH | 19.7% | 12.9% | L7Days | 18.6% | 13.0% |
| Padres | Road | 26.7% | 7.4% | RH | 24.8% | 6.8% | L7Days | 20.8% | 9.4% |
| Pirates | Road | 19.0% | 9.6% | LH | 20.6% | 14.5% | L7Days | 20.3% | 8.6% |
| Brewers | Road | 24.6% | 11.2% | RH | 25.7% | 8.1% | L7Days | 25.8% | 8.0% |
| Rangers | Home | 20.8% | 8.4% | RH | 20.2% | 8.5% | L7Days | 18.4% | 7.2% |
| Red Sox | Road | 21.6% | 7.8% | RH | 20.7% | 8.1% | L7Days | 22.3% | 7.3% |
| Phillies | Road | 23.7% | 5.4% | RH | 21.8% | 6.2% | L7Days | 20.9% | 6.0% |
| Athletics | Road | 19.8% | 5.0% | RH | 18.9% | 7.7% | L7Days | 17.0% | 5.2% |
| Astros | Road | 27.4% | 7.0% | RH | 27.6% | 8.9% | L7Days | 26.3% | 9.6% |
| White Sox | Road | 21.8% | 5.1% | RH | 19.0% | 7.9% | L7Days | 15.8% | 11.9% |
| Tigers | Home | 24.5% | 7.0% | LH | 15.6% | 9.8% | L7Days | 25.0% | 6.0% |
| Indians | Road | 22.4% | 7.6% | RH | 22.7% | 9.4% | L7Days | 19.6% | 9.3% |
| Cardinals | Road | 21.4% | 9.7% | RH | 18.6% | 8.4% | L7Days | 18.3% | 7.2% |
| Dodgers | Home | 19.7% | 7.0% | RH | 21.1% | 8.3% | L7Days | 21.8% | 11.6% |
| Rays | Home | 25.1% | 5.9% | RH | 28.3% | 7.5% | L7Days | 27.0% | 8.3% |
| Nationals | Home | 18.7% | 9.8% | RH | 20.6% | 9.1% | L7Days | 19.0% | 7.0% |
Batted Ball Chart
Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Griffin | Rangers | L2 Years | 34.6% | 8.0% | 3.8% | 2016 | 34.6% | 8.0% | 3.8% | Home | 50.0% | 20.0% | 25.0% | L14 Days | 34.5% | 16.7% | -3.4% |
| Bartolo Colon | Mets | L2 Years | 29.2% | 9.4% | 13.9% | 2016 | 30.4% | 14.3% | 21.5% | Home | 32.3% | 11.6% | 13.6% | L14 Days | 29.0% | 10.0% | 26.4% |
| Brandon Finnegan | Reds | L2 Years | 29.9% | 19.0% | 9.0% | 2016 | 31.3% | 18.2% | 14.1% | Road | 32.0% | 17.4% | 13.6% | L14 Days | 30.8% | 15.8% | 15.4% |
| Carlos Martinez | Cardinals | L2 Years | 27.0% | 9.3% | 6.3% | 2016 | 22.8% | 8.3% | 12.3% | Road | 28.0% | 9.5% | 6.7% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 11.8% | 17.5% |
| Chris Sale | White Sox | L2 Years | 26.4% | 10.2% | 6.2% | 2016 | 30.4% | 7.1% | 10.1% | Road | 26.8% | 8.5% | 6.9% | L14 Days | 32.5% | 0.0% | 15.0% |
| Clayton Kershaw | Dodgers | L2 Years | 25.2% | 8.6% | 3.5% | 2016 | 30.8% | 8.7% | 16.7% | Home | 24.9% | 7.2% | 3.2% | L14 Days | 31.0% | 0.0% | 14.3% |
| Cody Anderson | Indians | L2 Years | 28.1% | 11.6% | 6.2% | 2016 | 32.1% | 21.7% | 8.9% | Road | 28.2% | 9.6% | 10.0% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 33.3% | 12.1% |
| Dallas Keuchel | Astros | L2 Years | 20.8% | 10.9% | -3.0% | 2016 | 30.0% | 6.3% | 7.5% | Road | 26.6% | 16.1% | 6.3% | L14 Days | 27.1% | 11.1% | 4.2% |
| David Price | Red Sox | L2 Years | 28.5% | 8.4% | 11.8% | 2016 | 35.7% | 14.3% | 14.3% | Road | 28.8% | 8.5% | 8.5% | L14 Days | 41.9% | 15.8% | 25.6% |
| Edinson Volquez | Royals | L2 Years | 29.6% | 8.7% | 12.0% | 2016 | 26.1% | 5.0% | 7.3% | Road | 27.2% | 9.6% | 8.4% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 7.1% | 5.0% |
| Gerrit Cole | Pirates | L2 Years | 29.7% | 6.5% | 11.2% | 2016 | 29.6% | 0.0% | 18.2% | Road | 27.4% | 3.2% | 8.5% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 0.0% | 33.3% |
| Jake Odorizzi | Rays | L2 Years | 29.5% | 8.7% | 10.5% | 2016 | 39.7% | 6.7% | 16.2% | Home | 28.5% | 6.1% | 7.4% | L14 Days | 42.9% | 6.3% | 25.8% |
| James Shields | Padres | L2 Years | 28.8% | 13.5% | 11.2% | 2016 | 31.2% | 15.4% | 13.0% | Road | 31.5% | 16.3% | 14.5% | L14 Days | 30.6% | 8.3% | 13.9% |
| Jered Weaver | Angels | L2 Years | 28.2% | 9.3% | 8.4% | 2016 | 28.8% | 9.7% | 10.2% | Home | 26.5% | 7.5% | 5.9% | L14 Days | 32.5% | 9.5% | 15.0% |
| Jimmy Nelson | Brewers | L2 Years | 29.8% | 12.0% | 9.8% | 2016 | 28.6% | 22.2% | 3.9% | Road | 28.0% | 8.6% | 10.3% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 18.8% | -4.6% |
| Johnny Cueto | Giants | L2 Years | 24.8% | 9.2% | 2.9% | 2016 | 20.7% | 3.8% | -2.3% | Home | 24.5% | 7.7% | 4.0% | L14 Days | 23.8% | 9.1% | 0.0% |
| Jorge de la Rosa | Rockies | L2 Years | 31.4% | 13.9% | 13.6% | 2016 | 36.1% | 23.5% | 14.8% | Home | 34.1% | 19.4% | 17.0% | L14 Days | 15.6% | 0.0% | -12.5% |
| Kyle Hendricks | Cubs | L2 Years | 25.6% | 9.6% | 4.9% | 2016 | 28.1% | 9.1% | 5.3% | Home | 26.9% | 14.0% | 6.3% | L14 Days | 31.6% | 11.1% | 5.3% |
| Luis Severino | Yankees | L2 Years | 28.5% | 17.7% | 3.4% | 2016 | 35.0% | 20.0% | 15.0% | Road | 23.1% | 15.4% | -0.9% | L14 Days | 36.6% | 25.0% | 12.2% |
| Matt Wisler | Braves | L2 Years | 28.6% | 10.5% | 10.6% | 2016 | 31.2% | 10.7% | 8.2% | Home | 28.8% | 5.8% | 10.2% | L14 Days | 29.3% | 11.1% | 7.3% |
| Max Scherzer | Nationals | L2 Years | 28.9% | 9.1% | 9.7% | 2016 | 23.9% | 14.3% | -5.7% | Home | 27.7% | 10.9% | 8.3% | L14 Days | 25.5% | 10.5% | 3.7% |
| Mike Pelfrey | Tigers | L2 Years | 27.6% | 8.0% | 9.1% | 2016 | 41.2% | 16.7% | 21.6% | Home | 25.8% | 5.5% | 5.1% | L14 Days | 36.1% | 14.3% | 13.9% |
| Nate Karns | Mariners | L2 Years | 34.0% | 14.1% | 13.9% | 2016 | 34.9% | 20.0% | 16.3% | Home | 35.1% | 13.8% | 17.8% | L14 Days | 42.9% | 18.2% | 14.3% |
| R.A. Dickey | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 25.5% | 10.3% | 5.6% | 2016 | 33.3% | 5.6% | 15.1% | Home | 23.6% | 9.6% | 5.3% | L14 Days | 36.4% | 0.0% | 18.2% |
| Rich Hill | Athletics | L2 Years | 26.7% | 8.3% | 0.9% | 2016 | 34.1% | 10.0% | 6.8% | Road | 23.1% | 15.0% | -1.5% | L14 Days | 36.0% | 0.0% | 4.0% |
| Ricky Nolasco | Twins | L2 Years | 31.3% | 9.9% | 14.2% | 2016 | 23.0% | 5.0% | 0.0% | Home | 25.3% | 3.2% | 4.1% | L14 Days | 23.8% | 0.0% | 2.4% |
| Shelby Miller | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 30.8% | 8.3% | 11.7% | 2016 | 39.2% | 22.7% | 21.5% | Home | 28.2% | 8.7% | 9.8% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tom Koehler | Marlins | L2 Years | 33.0% | 9.0% | 16.3% | 2016 | 18.0% | 5.3% | -8.0% | Road | 32.9% | 12.6% | 16.1% | L14 Days | 16.1% | 6.7% | -9.7% |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | Orioles | L2 Years | 26.7% | 12.0% | 8.3% | 2016 | 32.6% | 22.2% | 17.4% | Road | 26.2% | 14.4% | 7.3% | L14 Days | 37.0% | 20.0% | 25.9% |
| Vincent Velasquez | Phillies | L2 Years | 25.1% | 7.9% | 6.2% | 2016 | 17.1% | 10.5% | -4.9% | Road | 20.0% | 6.3% | 1.4% | L14 Days | 20.7% | 16.7% | 3.5% |
Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yankees | Road | 27.7% | 12.8% | 9.5% | RH | 27.0% | 17.8% | 10.7% | L7Days | 29.4% | 9.2% | 9.1% |
| Reds | Road | 33.7% | 6.0% | 17.4% | RH | 32.3% | 8.7% | 16.0% | L7Days | 29.5% | 14.0% | 16.9% |
| Mets | Home | 29.8% | 6.3% | 5.1% | LH | 30.8% | 17.6% | 9.3% | L7Days | 38.5% | 20.0% | 25.3% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 35.7% | 20.5% | 17.8% | RH | 30.3% | 13.3% | 9.8% | L7Days | 33.2% | 18.8% | 12.5% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 33.2% | 15.3% | 17.6% | LH | 29.8% | 18.2% | 4.8% | L7Days | 33.2% | 11.4% | 20.4% |
| Marlins | Road | 23.0% | 8.2% | -2.8% | LH | 20.4% | 27.3% | -20.4% | L7Days | 22.1% | 9.8% | 0.5% |
| Twins | Home | 32.8% | 9.1% | 13.7% | RH | 31.5% | 9.9% | 13.8% | L7Days | 30.0% | 13.0% | 14.0% |
| Mariners | Home | 27.2% | 11.1% | 9.3% | LH | 25.3% | 15.6% | 8.3% | L7Days | 37.1% | 15.2% | 24.7% |
| Braves | Home | 28.9% | 3.5% | 10.2% | LH | 28.3% | 0.0% | 12.6% | L7Days | 33.7% | 0.0% | 16.6% |
| Angels | Home | 27.7% | 14.3% | 5.0% | RH | 24.7% | 9.1% | -1.5% | L7Days | 24.0% | 17.9% | -0.6% |
| Rockies | Home | 28.2% | 13.0% | 9.5% | RH | 32.8% | 14.5% | 12.9% | L7Days | 24.0% | 5.8% | -0.6% |
| Orioles | Road | 31.8% | 17.0% | 10.0% | RH | 32.5% | 15.6% | 10.6% | L7Days | 27.0% | 6.6% | 3.4% |
| Giants | Home | 26.7% | 11.8% | 5.4% | RH | 30.5% | 13.8% | 10.3% | L7Days | 28.3% | 5.9% | 8.0% |
| Royals | Road | 26.6% | 7.9% | 7.2% | RH | 28.4% | 9.2% | 6.2% | L7Days | 33.5% | 12.3% | 12.0% |
| Cubs | Home | 29.1% | 9.5% | 9.2% | RH | 32.7% | 14.7% | 15.0% | L7Days | 31.2% | 18.5% | 13.9% |
| Padres | Road | 31.0% | 13.5% | 13.8% | RH | 26.1% | 8.1% | 8.6% | L7Days | 29.8% | 10.2% | 13.8% |
| Pirates | Road | 33.0% | 7.9% | 13.9% | LH | 38.1% | 12.9% | 21.4% | L7Days | 35.3% | 8.8% | 16.9% |
| Brewers | Road | 26.0% | 8.9% | 8.3% | RH | 30.1% | 15.8% | 13.3% | L7Days | 34.2% | 15.4% | 19.4% |
| Rangers | Home | 25.8% | 10.1% | 4.0% | RH | 27.1% | 8.3% | 6.2% | L7Days | 26.3% | 13.1% | 9.1% |
| Red Sox | Road | 30.3% | 8.9% | 8.8% | RH | 30.4% | 9.0% | 11.4% | L7Days | 33.5% | 7.0% | 13.5% |
| Phillies | Road | 31.6% | 13.9% | 13.4% | RH | 26.4% | 9.6% | 7.0% | L7Days | 31.9% | 10.9% | 18.0% |
| Athletics | Road | 31.9% | 15.9% | 13.6% | RH | 32.5% | 10.1% | 13.6% | L7Days | 32.4% | 15.0% | 16.0% |
| Astros | Road | 32.9% | 22.1% | 11.4% | RH | 35.4% | 17.6% | 16.9% | L7Days | 34.7% | 14.0% | 15.4% |
| White Sox | Road | 27.9% | 6.7% | 10.5% | RH | 26.7% | 9.8% | 6.2% | L7Days | 27.4% | 10.7% | 7.5% |
| Tigers | Home | 33.2% | 11.1% | 14.8% | LH | 36.4% | 13.0% | 20.1% | L7Days | 36.3% | 6.6% | 17.6% |
| Indians | Road | 30.7% | 11.8% | 11.2% | RH | 32.2% | 14.1% | 17.9% | L7Days | 30.4% | 9.5% | 16.8% |
| Cardinals | Road | 31.4% | 16.2% | 12.1% | RH | 33.4% | 16.7% | 13.4% | L7Days | 32.8% | 15.8% | 12.9% |
| Dodgers | Home | 27.4% | 13.7% | 5.1% | RH | 30.7% | 7.1% | 11.5% | L7Days | 32.1% | 11.5% | 17.9% |
| Rays | Home | 33.3% | 11.5% | 13.2% | RH | 33.6% | 15.0% | 13.8% | L7Days | 36.6% | 13.3% | 19.7% |
| Nationals | Home | 30.1% | 10.2% | 11.4% | RH | 30.8% | 11.5% | 12.3% | L7Days | 31.0% | 14.5% | 9.2% |
K/SwStr Chart (2015 LG AVG – 19.5 K% – 9.3 SwStr% – 2.1 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Griffin | TEX | 16.7% | 8.4% | 1.99 | 16.7% | 8.4% | 1.99 |
| Bartolo Colon | NYM | 22.7% | 8.8% | 2.58 | 22.7% | 8.8% | 2.58 |
| Brandon Finnegan | CIN | 19.2% | 10.3% | 1.86 | 19.2% | 10.3% | 1.86 |
| Carlos Martinez | STL | 20.0% | 9.1% | 2.20 | 20.0% | 9.1% | 2.20 |
| Chris Sale | CHW | 23.9% | 11.1% | 2.15 | 23.9% | 11.1% | 2.15 |
| Clayton Kershaw | LOS | 27.0% | 13.4% | 2.01 | 27.0% | 13.4% | 2.01 |
| Cody Anderson | CLE | 14.3% | 8.7% | 1.64 | 14.3% | 8.7% | 1.64 |
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | 19.5% | 11.1% | 1.76 | 19.5% | 11.1% | 1.76 |
| David Price | BOS | 33.0% | 16.0% | 2.06 | 33.0% | 16.0% | 2.06 |
| Edinson Volquez | KAN | 22.2% | 9.9% | 2.24 | 22.2% | 9.9% | 2.24 |
| Gerrit Cole | PIT | 25.0% | 8.6% | 2.91 | 25.0% | 8.6% | 2.91 |
| Jake Odorizzi | TAM | 24.2% | 9.6% | 2.52 | 24.2% | 9.6% | 2.52 |
| James Shields | SDG | 18.1% | 9.9% | 1.83 | 18.1% | 9.9% | 1.83 |
| Jered Weaver | ANA | 9.6% | 8.1% | 1.19 | 9.6% | 8.1% | 1.19 |
| Jimmy Nelson | MIL | 17.9% | 6.2% | 2.89 | 17.9% | 6.2% | 2.89 |
| Johnny Cueto | SFO | 19.3% | 10.0% | 1.93 | 19.3% | 10.0% | 1.93 |
| Jorge de la Rosa | COL | 26.4% | 10.7% | 2.47 | 26.4% | 10.7% | 2.47 |
| Kyle Hendricks | CHC | 20.0% | 8.2% | 2.44 | 20.0% | 8.2% | 2.44 |
| Luis Severino | NYY | 15.3% | 8.4% | 1.82 | 15.3% | 8.4% | 1.82 |
| Matt Wisler | ATL | 19.5% | 8.0% | 2.44 | 19.5% | 8.0% | 2.44 |
| Max Scherzer | WAS | 22.3% | 10.2% | 2.19 | 22.3% | 10.2% | 2.19 |
| Mike Pelfrey | DET | 11.3% | 7.5% | 1.51 | 11.3% | 7.5% | 1.51 |
| Nate Karns | SEA | 25.7% | 10.4% | 2.47 | 25.7% | 10.4% | 2.47 |
| R.A. Dickey | TOR | 20.0% | 10.7% | 1.87 | 20.0% | 10.7% | 1.87 |
| Rich Hill | OAK | 33.7% | 12.0% | 2.81 | 33.7% | 12.0% | 2.81 |
| Ricky Nolasco | MIN | 19.0% | 9.2% | 2.07 | 19.0% | 9.2% | 2.07 |
| Shelby Miller | ARI | 13.9% | 5.5% | 2.53 | 13.9% | 5.5% | 2.53 |
| Tom Koehler | FLA | 16.9% | 7.8% | 2.17 | 16.9% | 7.8% | 2.17 |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | 27.0% | 7.8% | 3.46 | 27.0% | 7.8% | 3.46 |
| Vincent Velasquez | PHI | 39.2% | 15.4% | 2.55 | 39.2% | 15.4% | 2.55 |
Rich Hill did almost exactly the same thing with his K% and SwStr% in four starts last year, which makes that eight starts now for the mathematically inclined. He’s had at least a 9.1 SwStr% in all four this year. The point that his K% will eventually drop is just about a given, but the amazing thing is the SwStr% suggests it could hang around 30%.
ERA Estimators Chart (2015 LG AVG – 4.10 ERA – 4.07 SIERA – 4.00 xFIP – 4.03 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Griffin | TEX | 3.18 | 5.15 | 1.97 | 5.34 | 2.16 | 4.62 | 1.44 | 3.18 | 5.15 | 1.97 | 5.34 | 2.16 | 4.62 | 1.44 |
| Bartolo Colon | NYM | 2.89 | 3.11 | 0.22 | 2.74 | -0.15 | 2.99 | 0.1 | 2.89 | 3.11 | 0.22 | 2.74 | -0.15 | 2.99 | 0.1 |
| Brandon Finnegan | CIN | 3.74 | 4.86 | 1.12 | 4.65 | 0.91 | 5.49 | 1.75 | 3.74 | 4.87 | 1.13 | 4.65 | 0.91 | 5.49 | 1.75 |
| Carlos Martinez | STL | 2.7 | 4.31 | 1.61 | 4.38 | 1.68 | 3.84 | 1.14 | 2.7 | 4.31 | 1.61 | 4.38 | 1.68 | 3.84 | 1.14 |
| Chris Sale | CHW | 1.8 | 3.06 | 1.26 | 3.19 | 1.39 | 2.63 | 0.83 | 1.8 | 3.06 | 1.26 | 3.19 | 1.39 | 2.63 | 0.83 |
| Clayton Kershaw | LOS | 1.5 | 2.67 | 1.17 | 2.57 | 1.07 | 2.26 | 0.76 | 1.5 | 2.67 | 1.17 | 2.57 | 1.07 | 2.26 | 0.76 |
| Cody Anderson | CLE | 7.53 | 4.51 | -3.02 | 4.99 | -2.54 | 7.07 | -0.46 | 7.53 | 4.51 | -3.02 | 4.99 | -2.54 | 7.07 | -0.46 |
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | 3.71 | 3.99 | 0.28 | 3.6 | -0.11 | 3.17 | -0.54 | 3.71 | 4 | 0.29 | 3.6 | -0.11 | 3.17 | -0.54 |
| David Price | BOS | 7.06 | 2.58 | -4.48 | 2.87 | -4.19 | 3.19 | -3.87 | 7.06 | 2.59 | -4.47 | 2.87 | -4.19 | 3.19 | -3.87 |
| Edinson Volquez | KAN | 1.46 | 3.68 | 2.22 | 3.52 | 2.06 | 2.81 | 1.35 | 1.46 | 3.69 | 2.23 | 3.52 | 2.06 | 2.81 | 1.35 |
| Gerrit Cole | PIT | 2.7 | 3.32 | 0.62 | 3.09 | 0.39 | 1.89 | -0.81 | 2.7 | 3.33 | 0.63 | 3.09 | 0.39 | 1.89 | -0.81 |
| Jake Odorizzi | TAM | 3.97 | 3.35 | -0.62 | 3.62 | -0.35 | 2.74 | -1.23 | 3.97 | 3.36 | -0.61 | 3.62 | -0.35 | 2.74 | -1.23 |
| James Shields | SDG | 4.15 | 4.42 | 0.27 | 4.2 | 0.05 | 4.67 | 0.52 | 4.15 | 4.42 | 0.27 | 4.2 | 0.05 | 4.67 | 0.52 |
| Jered Weaver | ANA | 3.12 | 5.99 | 2.87 | 6.23 | 3.11 | 5.75 | 2.63 | 3.12 | 6 | 2.88 | 6.23 | 3.11 | 5.75 | 2.63 |
| Jimmy Nelson | MIL | 3.46 | 4.49 | 1.03 | 4.37 | 0.91 | 5.79 | 2.33 | 3.46 | 4.49 | 1.03 | 4.37 | 0.91 | 5.79 | 2.33 |
| Johnny Cueto | SFO | 3.49 | 3.66 | 0.17 | 3.47 | -0.02 | 2.53 | -0.96 | 3.49 | 3.67 | 0.18 | 3.47 | -0.02 | 2.53 | -0.96 |
| Jorge de la Rosa | COL | 9.87 | 3.67 | -6.2 | 3.67 | -6.2 | 5.17 | -4.7 | 9.87 | 3.67 | -6.2 | 3.67 | -6.2 | 5.17 | -4.7 |
| Kyle Hendricks | CHC | 4 | 3.13 | -0.87 | 2.86 | -1.14 | 2.65 | -1.35 | 4 | 3.13 | -0.87 | 2.86 | -1.14 | 2.65 | -1.35 |
| Luis Severino | NYY | 4.86 | 3.14 | -1.72 | 2.87 | -1.99 | 3.51 | -1.35 | 4.86 | 3.15 | -1.71 | 2.87 | -1.99 | 3.51 | -1.35 |
| Matt Wisler | ATL | 3.1 | 3.91 | 0.81 | 4.36 | 1.26 | 4.18 | 1.08 | 3.1 | 3.91 | 0.81 | 4.36 | 1.26 | 4.18 | 1.08 |
| Max Scherzer | WAS | 4.32 | 3.9 | -0.42 | 4.05 | -0.27 | 4.41 | 0.09 | 4.32 | 3.9 | -0.42 | 4.05 | -0.27 | 4.41 | 0.09 |
| Mike Pelfrey | DET | 3.68 | 6.24 | 2.56 | 5.71 | 2.03 | 6.23 | 2.55 | 3.68 | 6.25 | 2.57 | 5.71 | 2.03 | 6.23 | 2.55 |
| Nate Karns | SEA | 5.28 | 4.16 | -1.12 | 4 | -1.28 | 5.05 | -0.23 | 5.28 | 4.16 | -1.12 | 4 | -1.28 | 5.05 | -0.23 |
| R.A. Dickey | TOR | 6.1 | 4.33 | -1.77 | 4.04 | -2.06 | 3.34 | -2.76 | 6.1 | 4.34 | -1.76 | 4.04 | -2.06 | 3.34 | -2.76 |
| Rich Hill | OAK | 3.32 | 2.85 | -0.47 | 2.9 | -0.42 | 2.78 | -0.54 | 3.32 | 2.85 | -0.47 | 2.9 | -0.42 | 2.78 | -0.54 |
| Ricky Nolasco | MIN | 2.66 | 3.58 | 0.92 | 3.56 | 0.9 | 2.7 | 0.04 | 2.66 | 3.58 | 0.92 | 3.56 | 0.9 | 2.7 | 0.04 |
| Shelby Miller | ARI | 8.59 | 6.02 | -2.57 | 6.27 | -2.32 | 8.41 | -0.18 | 8.59 | 6.03 | -2.56 | 6.27 | -2.32 | 8.41 | -0.18 |
| Tom Koehler | FLA | 4.8 | 4.82 | 0.02 | 5.23 | 0.43 | 4.16 | -0.64 | 4.8 | 4.82 | 0.02 | 5.23 | 0.43 | 4.16 | -0.64 |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | 3.71 | 3.45 | -0.26 | 2.96 | -0.75 | 3.68 | -0.03 | 3.71 | 3.45 | -0.26 | 2.96 | -0.75 | 3.68 | -0.03 |
| Vincent Velasquez | PHI | 0.93 | 1.83 | 0.9 | 2.22 | 1.29 | 2.06 | 1.13 | 0.93 | 1.83 | 0.9 | 2.22 | 1.29 | 2.06 | 1.13 |
Chris Sale has a sub-.200 BABIP, but part of that might be the Chicago defense, which has been exceptional early on. None of this is sustainable of course. His 76.9 LOB% is actually below his career rate (78.2%), which is one of the highest marks on record for a starting pitcher with over 500 innings.
Clayton Kershaw has a .237 BABIP, but it’s really not all that far from his .272 career mark. He’s really hard to hit. His 84.2 LOB% floats a little higher than anything he’s ever done before, but his career 78.3 LOB% is the highest mark ever for any starting pitcher with more than 1K innings pitched.
David Price has a .396 BABIP and quite possible the lowest Z-Contact% (67.5) I’ve ever seen with more than a couple of starts. With an additional 14.3 HR/FB, it seems they either hit him hard or not at all. His 55.6 LOB% is absurd.
Vincent Velasquez – I don’t think anybody expects him to sustain a BABIP below .250 or an ERA below one, but the regressed version of him is pretty awesome too.
BABIP Chart (2015 LG AVG – .295 BABIP – 21.1 LD% – 9.5 IFFB% – 87.7 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | Pitcher LD% | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Griffin | TEX | 0.271 | 0.220 | -0.051 | 0.173 | 20.0% | 85.1% |
| Bartolo Colon | NYM | 0.344 | 0.296 | -0.048 | 0.302 | 7.1% | 86.1% |
| Brandon Finnegan | CIN | 0.275 | 0.183 | -0.092 | 0.206 | 0.0% | 89.5% |
| Carlos Martinez | STL | 0.299 | 0.200 | -0.099 | 0.175 | 4.2% | 85.6% |
| Chris Sale | CHW | 0.258 | 0.195 | -0.063 | 0.141 | 3.6% | 82.9% |
| Clayton Kershaw | LOS | 0.261 | 0.237 | -0.024 | 0.221 | 4.3% | 82.8% |
| Cody Anderson | CLE | 0.248 | 0.373 | 0.125 | 0.179 | 8.7% | 88.7% |
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | 0.320 | 0.329 | 0.009 | 0.244 | 12.5% | 85.2% |
| David Price | BOS | 0.312 | 0.396 | 0.084 | 0.273 | 4.8% | 67.5% |
| Edinson Volquez | KAN | 0.285 | 0.265 | -0.02 | 0.188 | 5.0% | 87.5% |
| Gerrit Cole | PIT | 0.292 | 0.295 | 0.003 | 0.262 | 0.0% | 90.0% |
| Jake Odorizzi | TAM | 0.287 | 0.348 | 0.061 | 0.191 | 20.0% | 84.8% |
| James Shields | SDG | 0.322 | 0.260 | -0.062 | 0.224 | 3.8% | 86.7% |
| Jered Weaver | ANA | 0.252 | 0.250 | -0.002 | 0.22 | 12.9% | 81.0% |
| Jimmy Nelson | MIL | 0.325 | 0.225 | -0.1 | 0.156 | 18.5% | 93.3% |
| Johnny Cueto | SFO | 0.332 | 0.302 | -0.03 | 0.244 | 11.5% | 88.7% |
| Jorge de la Rosa | COL | 0.314 | 0.420 | 0.106 | 0.241 | 5.9% | 85.5% |
| Kyle Hendricks | CHC | 0.251 | 0.304 | 0.053 | 0.236 | 9.1% | 91.4% |
| Luis Severino | NYY | 0.317 | 0.397 | 0.08 | 0.283 | 10.0% | 88.8% |
| Matt Wisler | ATL | 0.298 | 0.207 | -0.091 | 0.083 | 3.6% | 92.1% |
| Max Scherzer | WAS | 0.258 | 0.269 | 0.011 | 0.164 | 25.0% | 85.6% |
| Mike Pelfrey | DET | 0.318 | 0.367 | 0.049 | 0.24 | 16.7% | 85.9% |
| Nate Karns | SEA | 0.278 | 0.350 | 0.072 | 0.302 | 6.7% | 91.6% |
| R.A. Dickey | TOR | 0.289 | 0.369 | 0.08 | 0.273 | 11.1% | 78.1% |
| Rich Hill | OAK | 0.291 | 0.442 | 0.151 | 0.227 | 0.0% | 76.9% |
| Ricky Nolasco | MIN | 0.301 | 0.267 | -0.034 | 0.133 | 10.0% | 89.0% |
| Shelby Miller | ARI | 0.308 | 0.283 | -0.025 | 0.16 | 9.1% | 83.7% |
| Tom Koehler | FLA | 0.316 | 0.367 | 0.051 | 0.208 | 21.1% | 85.2% |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | 0.300 | 0.386 | 0.086 | 0.267 | 0.0% | 85.5% |
| Vincent Velasquez | PHI | 0.297 | 0.231 | -0.066 | 0.195 | 5.3% | 72.7% |
Bartolo Colon has a 30 LD% and a BABIP 50 points below what that horrid defense has allowed.
Jake Odorizzi has excellent indicators (high IFFB%, low Z-Contact%), but does have a 39.7 Hard%. That’s not supposed to correlate real well with BABIP, but considering he has allowed just two HRs, I guess in bigger parks it might.
Rich Hill has a pretty heavy ground ball rate (54.5%), but has allowed a lot of well hit ones (34.1 Hard%). That BABIP is still completely ridiculous on a 22.7 LD% or any LD% really though.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings, especially on our first day of doing so today. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
Value Tier One
David Price (2) is a partially broken pitcher and might have some real issues. This is how little I think of the Braves. They might not know how to hit the ball hard. Vin Scully is the only person alive who’s seen their last HR. At the very least, I feel we can expect a significant amount of strikeouts.
Value Tier Two
Rich Hill (6t) – I originally wanted to bump him up into the top tier, but the Tigers being entirely with the platoon advantage perhaps concerns me more than it should? He’s struck out 21 of 64 RHBs this season and costs below $8K (on both sites) as a pitcher with 10 Ks in five of his last eight starts. I’d consider plenty of GPP exposure here, but probably not much outside of GPPs. I have an ominous feeling I can’t quite explain with numbers here, but perhaps that’s just a hangover from a rough Monday night around the league.
Clayton Kershaw (1) – The only consideration here is cost. He’s $13K or above on either major site. That’s a lot to pay and will hamstring the rest of your roster. Make no mistake he’s tonight’s top overall pitcher tonight as he is on any night he pitches.
Vincent Velasquez (4) is probably going to be pretty popular on FanDuel for $7.8K where you can probably go ahead and bump him up to the top tier. He’s a bit more expensive on DraftKings, but still has enough upside to blow past his price tag. I’d even say it’s more likely than people probably expect in this spot, which I consider fairly favorable.
Value Tier Three
Kyle Hendricks – I’d like to see him consistently get a little deeper into games, but Joe Madden understands the times through the order penalty for the middle of his rotation and beyond. He’s in a good spot against a team with some power and some swing and miss. In daily fantasy, we’ll happily allow a few HRs for a high expected strikeout rate at a mid-range cost, especially when a pitcher has above average control.
Chris Sale (3) – I said he’s one of a very small number of left-handed pitchers I’d even consider against the Blue Jays. I never said he’s probably still a top value in this spot. Being considered worth more than $12K in most situations is still quite an accomplishment.
Bartolo Colon could probably serve as a decent complimentary selection on DraftKings for under $7K in a very good matchup tonight. You’re probably paying up for at least one pitcher tonight and he can save you some money with the second. I’d probably not be as interested for another thousand on a one pitcher site.
Johnny Cueto (6t) – At a continued high price, he’s more here because of being in a great spot (which he often will be in San Francisco) and can be trusted to go deep than being a great pitcher. The Padres in San Fran is about as good as it gets in this league.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either useable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Jake Odorizzi isn’t the kind of guy you’re building around today, but if you only have a few spots left and can fit him in, you can probably do much worse. Not everyone’s Home/Road splits seem predictive, but at this point you can probably believe in some ability to suppress HRs at home.
Max Scherzer (5) is extremely expensive (close to Kershaw on DK) and is not pitching nearly as well as last season despite an abundance of weak competition through his first four starts (just Marlins, Braves, and Phillies). At least that weak opposition continues again with the Phillies and he should pitch well, but pitching well though not completely dominating might not give you any excess value beyond his cost tonight.
Gerrit Cole or Luis Severino on DraftKings only if you’re feeling adventurous.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
NOTE: Button for pitcher salary chart above opens in popup window