Advanced Stats - Pitching: Tuesday, July 3rd

by Matt Trollo (MTro86) Last Updated 2018-07-04 02:27:29

A rare three games off the main slate on Tuesday, which means we’ll be covering 24 pitchers (while listing all 30). The good news is that the early starts don’t take any top-level pitchers off the board. The bad news is that there may not be one at all.

As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, ownership projections and the weather forecast as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. All of these things are available right here on the site.

Legend

Starting Pitching Main Chart

Andrew Heaney was hammered by Boston last time out (three HRs). He was hammered the last time he faced the Mariners (three HRs). He’s allowed 11 HRs on the season, nine of them in just three starts. He’s also struck out four or fewer in five of his last six starts. He has a .406 xwOBA on the road since last season, with fewer than three runs only in starts in New York (AL) and Colorado somehow. The Mariners have a 14.8 K% over the last week, but a surprisingly low amount of power against LHP (10.1 HR/FB) despite the beating they laid on Heaney last time they faced him. None of this is good, but his season numbers still project a league average to slightly better pitcher in one of the most negative run environments on the board.

Clayton Richard last failed to complete six innings in his first start of May. He’s failed to complete seven innings in only three starts since then. He has just a 16.6 K% over the last month, but with a nearly league average 9.9 SwStr%, the same as his season mark, while his 57.7 GB% leads all qualified starters in baseball by 1.7 points, which has allowed him to limit Barrels/BBE to 4.9% despite an 89.1 mph aEV. While the A’s hit the ball hard too (25+ Hard-Soft% at home, vs LHP and over the last week) it’s really not a bad spot in a favorable park at all (90 wRC+, 16.3 K-BB% vs LHP, 9.9 HR/FB at home).

Domingo German seems to have been skipped after being lit up for six runs by the Rays on June 24th (two Ks). He has just one start since his first with fewer than three runs, but his 15.4 SwStr% is three points higher than any other pitcher on the board. His 17.4 SwStr% over the last month is also three points higher than anyone on the board over that span. He’s one of just two pitchers on the board (Greinke is the other) with an elite Z-Contac% and Z-O-Swing%. This means he’s getting batters to swing at his pitches and he’s making them miss even when they aren’t. One might think he’s allowing too much hard contact to have the results he’s seen with his peripherals, but that’s not really the case either as can be seen below. The Braves have a 20 K% on the road and vs RHP with just a 16.5 K% over the last week, but he can afford to lose a few swings and misses and still retain some upside, while Atlanta also has a 95 wRC+ and 10.8 HR/FB vs RHP.

Ivan Nova is a perfectly league average pitcher by ERA and peripherals this season (14.4 K-BB%) because he hasn’t walked many batters and strikes out enough. While his 20.8 K% over the last month is a bit fluky (his SwStr% has actually decreased slightly, while he has two starts of eight strikeouts over his last four starts, but a total of five in the other two), his .240 xwOBA over the last month is second best on the board and actually first if your realize the other guy (his opponent tonight) has thrown just two shortened starts over that span. The Dodgers are a good offense, but neutralized a bit by one of the most negative run environments in baseball.

Jack Flaherty is coming off one of his worst starts of the season against the Indians (4 IP – 4 ER – 2 HR – 2 BB – 5 K – 20 BF). He’s thrown a few stinkers this year, though the other three came against Miami and Pittsburgh (twice). One would think with the slider being his best, that he’d run into some platoon problems, but that hasn’t been the case this year (both sides are below a .300 wOBA). He tops the board with a 29.1 K% this season and is the only one with more than a couple of shortened starts above a 30 K% over the last month. He’s one of just three batters below a .300 xwOBA on the board as well. He’s also in what may be an extremely favorable spot. The Diamondbacks have an 81 wRC+ and 24.4 K% vs RHP, though the strikeouts have been decreasing as of late.

Ryan Yarbrough is actually starting tonight. (Watch the Rays troll us and pull him after an inning.) They don’t think the Marlins (split low 75 wRC+ and 7.6 HR/FB vs LHP, though the 13.2 K-BB% is around league average). He has just a 16.4 K% over the last month, but with a 10.8 SwStr%. He had three straight outings against the Yankees broken up by facing Houston last time out and still has allowed just one run over his last 10.2 innings. This should be a nice break for him. His 26.8% 95+ mph EV is lowest on the board.

Shane Bieber has thrown as least 5.2 innings in all four of his starts with no more than one walk in any of them, which gives him a 22.3 K-BB% at the major league level. He’s not been below 20% at any level of professional competition since being drafted. While this is mostly due to his immaculate control, an above average strikeout rate is necessary too. His 26.2 K% this season is actually fourth best on the board too. His .282 xwOBA is lowest on the board. He’s not in a high strikeout spot in Kanas City (19.2 K% vs RHP), but it’s a terrific run prevention spot (78 wRC+, 7.0 BB%, 8.0 HR/FB vs RHP). Over the last week, there has been significantly more upside against them (37 wRC+, 20 K-BB%).

Trevor Richards has just a 10.0 K-BB% in 10 major league starts due to a 10.5 BB%. However, he had a 21.9 K-BB% at AAA this year and a 18.8 K-BB% at AA and 24.4 K-BB% at A+ last year. I’m not going to say upside because he has just an 8.7 SwStr% in the majors, but there should be some competence here if he finds something close to his minor league walk rates. He’s also in a pretty strong spot, hosting a slumping Rays’ offense (56 wRC+, 25.7 K%, 3.1 HR/FB) in a great park tonight.

Zack Greinke is probably your top overall arm tonight (assuming Kershaw is limited). His 25.7 K% is only fourth on the board, but highest among qualified pitchers today. He’s one of just two pitchers on the board (German is the other) with both an elite Z-Contact% and Z-O-Swing%. He does allow too much hard contact (9.3% Barrels/BBE is second worst among tonight’s pitchers), but certainly does enough to compensate most times. He’s thrown 13 shutout innings with 13 Ks over his last two starts in great spots in Miami and Pittsburgh, but this is a pretty nice spot too (Cardinals 26 K% on the road, 14.9 K-BB% vs RHP).

Zack Wheeler finally got some results last time out (7 IP – 0 R – 1 BB – 7 K – 26 BF). I mean, he did not win the game, but at least the bullpen waited until he was long gone to start giving up runs. He has now struck out 22 of his last 76 batters and has gone at least six innings in nine of his last 11 starts, missing once by just a single out. His 85.5 mph aEV is lowest on the board tonight. The matchup is in neutral territory, though the Blue Jays have a 0.0 Hard-Soft% over the last week.

NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)

This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is usually extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm.

League AVG (.288 BABIP – 72.9 LOB% – 13.1 HR/FB)

Zach Eflin (.295 – 72.9% – 6.5) just shutout the Yankees on four hits for seven innings with six strikeouts. I’m beginning to buy into him, but not as fast as the sites seem to be. He’s already above $9K on either one. It is a great matchup against an offense with a 75 wRC+ and 25.6 K% on the road, 83 wRC+ and 17.5 K-BB% vs RHP and no DH today. I’m torn because I thought I was going to like him today, but just don’t like the cost. He’s an extreme fly ball pitcher with an unsustainable HR rate and a strong, but not elite strikeout rate, which is much more than we ever thought he’d be. I really don’t mind him if you have the salary space, but probably wouldn’t go out of my way to make room for him.

Sean Newcomb (.261 – 78.8% – 8.3) is a bit borderline on the sustainability of all of his numbers and even has a 9.7% unearned run rate (though that’s just three at this point), but does is a strong contact manager. While he’s an above average strikeout pitcher, it’s not by much and he’s not exactly cheap ($9K on DraftKings) in one of the worst spots on the board in Yankee Stadium, a park where you don’t really need to hit it that hard to get it out. The Yankees have an 18.8 HR/FB at home and 19.9 HR/FB vs LHP with an 11 BB% and 22 Hard-Soft% in both instances. He’s more of a borderline option for $7.7K on FanDuel.

Chris Bassit (.246 – 60.2% – 3.7) actually has a strand rate that’s too low somehow and has a great matchup because somebody has to face the Padres today (20.4 K-BB% on the road, 25.8 K% vs RHP), but the problem is that he is still Chris Bassit (8.4 K-BB% in 166 career innings).

Austin Bibens-Dirkx (.324 – 68.6% – 3.8) gets the Astros in one of two extremely positive run environments on the board.

NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)

Wade LeBlanc has morphed into pre-2018 Wade LeBlanc over his last two starts (10.1 IP – 18 H – 10 R – 1 HR – 1 BB – 4 K – 49 BF). The Angels have just a 19.9 K% vs LHP. You might say, but he has a reverse split and you’d be right, but the teams that did that damage to him are predominantly right-handed (Boston and Baltimore). I suppose he could bounce back here and the cost is not high, which is why I have him as a borderline option today, but I don’t think many people expected this ride to continue very long.

Clayton Kershaw threw 68 pitches in his last start. It was a quality effort (5 IP – 4 H – 1 ER – 0 BB – 6 K – 18 BF) against a quality offense (Cubs), but one without their top RHB and tonight, he’s one of just two $10K+ pitchers and might throw 80-85 pitches at best? The good news is the velocity has been back up around season levels in his two starts back from the DL this time and if we get word that he’ll somehow have no limitations tonight, then he’s in the mix in one of the most negative run environments in baseball, but even then, it’s a spot without a lot of strikeout upside (Pirates < 21.5 K% on the road, vs LHP and over last seven days).

Alex Cobb is so cheap ($4.5K on DK) in a spot with some upside (Phillies split high 26.4 K% vs RHP) and can’t be this bad. In fact, he has nearly league average peripherals and estimators over the last month.

Anthony DeSclafani is in a high upside spot (White Sox 18.6 K-BB% vs RHP, 19.7 K-BB% last seven days), but has allowed six HRs in five starts with a high of six strikeouts. He has just a 7.7 SwStr% on the season, exceeding 9% just once. It seems like he could be useful here, but only if he ends up at the top of his outcome range.
Late Note – I rarely post-edit, but seeing Abreu out of the lineup (and some potentially favorable umpiring news), I’m going to bump DeSclafani to a borderline fourth tier arm now.

Dallas Keuchel has allowed four runs or more in five of his last eight starts and six or more in three of his last five. He has just a 15 K% over the last month and costs nearly $9K in one of the worst spots on the board.

Danny Duffy has gone at least six innings in six of his last seven starts and has at least seven Ks in three of his last four. That’s all great news, but he still has an 11.8 BB% over that seven-start span and finds himself $6K or more now in a rough spot (Indians 110 wRC+, 19.5 K% vs LHP).

Marco Estrada has a 22.7 K% over the last month, but struck out just one in his last start, the third time he’s done that in his last seven starts. He did have a run of four straight starts with at least six innings and two runs or fewer before his last outing, so it’s definitely possible in this spot that he could give you a decent effort, but I’m not sure it’s likely. His 10.7% Barrels/BBE is highest on the board, which could be a problem if he doesn’t miss some bats tonight.

Chris Stratton

Antonio Senzatela

Lucas Giolito

Peripherals (Pitcher)

Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.

Peripherals (Opponent)

K/SwStr Chart (2018 LG AVG – 21.7 K% – 10.1 SwStr% – 2.15 K/SwStr)

Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.

Domingo German is behind only Scherzer, Sale and deGrom in SwStr% this season. Remove his bullpen work and he jumps ahead of deGrom.

Ryan Yarbrough has been below a 9 SwStr% just once over the last month, in his last effort against the Astros.

ERA Estimators Chart (2018 LG AVG – 4.18 ERA – 4.16 SIERA – 4.12 xFIP – 4.22 FIP)

How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense-independent estimators.

Domingo German has a 55.8 LOB% since moving into the rotation. That’s simply unsustainable. He’s allowed an 18 HR/FB, but that’s a Yankee Stadium problem most likely. As you can see on the Statcast table, the contact hasn’t even been bad. His aEV and Barrels/BBE are both around average.

Shane Bieber somehow has an 89.7 LOB% with a .389 BABIP. Small sample size magic.

BABIP & Statcast Chart (2018 LG AVG – .288 BABIP – 43.2 GB% – 21.1 LD% – 10.3 IFFB% – 86.3 Z-Contact% – 36.5 Z-O-Swing%)

A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.

It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.

Shane Bieber does not have a negative piece of work in his BABIP profile at all. There is one thing we’ll look at below.

StatCast Chart (2018 LG AVG – .315 wOBA)

All stats from BaseballSavant.com.

Ryan Yarbrough has a board high .417 xwOBA over the last month. His K-BB is just 6.9% in some tough spots, but the contact in June seemed fine (30.6 Hard%), while he has one of the lowest exit velocities on the board for the season.

Shane Bieber generates ground balls above 50% of the time along with the elite peripherals. This is how he has an 89.5 mph aEV and just 4.3% Barrels/BBE. The abundance of hard ground balls may be a reason why his BABIP is so high too, though it’s certainly not sustainable.

Pitcher Notes & Summary

Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top few. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever-evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.

This is one of the stranger mixes we’ve seen this year. It’s not that there’s nothing available, but the better values seem to be just that, either high upside arms or pure value plays rather than top overall arms.

Value Tier One

Shane Bieber (2) brings a 20+ K-BB% to a great run prevention matchup and though the Royals do generally make contact, they have a team 20 K-BB% over the last week too. If he has a fault, it’s too many hard ground balls and the cost of doing business is increasing, but if he just continues doing what he’s been doing, he’s still underpriced.

Ryan Yarbrough barely breaks $6K and is capable of going six innings in Miami and that’s really all you need to know. He struggled in some tough spots early in June but has pitched well in some tougher spots more recently.

Domingo German (4) has struggled by ERA and is facing contact prone offense in a tough park, but it’s not an extremely dangerous offense and nobody on the board comes close to his SwStr%. The poor results have been due more to an inability to strand runners than anything else. He costs just $6.5K on FanDuel, but probably drops a tier (or even two) for exactly $2K more on DraftKings, though I’d still consider him usable because the upside can’t be ignored on this slate.

Value Tier Two

Trevor Richards is a cheap ($5.9K on FD), possibly competent pitcher in a very favorable matchup against an ice cold team in a great park. Usable, but probably dropping a tier for $7.5K on DraftKings.

Value Tier Three

Jack Flaherty (3) is one of the highest upside pitchers on the board and costs a reasonable $8K on FanDuel in what might be a very favorable spot. He’s part of the $10K club on DraftKings though, where we’ll need the upper part of his range and he probably drops a tier, but should still be playable. Note that he has more than six strikeouts in just three of his last 10 starts though. He’s very much hit or miss.

Clayton Richard would not seem to have a lot of upside, but he would seem to have a high floor and costs just $6.8K on DraftKings. That’s a really low price for a guy who is more likely to give you seven innings than not on a night where there are no high upside, low risk guys.

Zack Greinke (1) is probably your top overall arm tonight and the only thing even resembling an Ace with more than a month in the majors, but he’s also one of two pitchers above $10K on both sites.

Zack Wheeler gives you innings, enough strikeouts and manages contact very well. The cost has risen to $8K though and probably can’t go too much higher where he’s still a nice value.

Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.

Ivan Nova is not going to win you anything on his own and I’m certainly using some left-handed Dodger bats, but he costs just $7K on DraftKings and generally throws more quality starts than not. He’s just kind of there and not as bad as some other choices tonight.

Andrew Heaney has been worse over the last month, but still has three starts of seven or more innings with three or fewer runs over that span in the three games where he did not allow three HRs. He costs less than $8K in a great park, even if he was lit up last time he was there.

Anthony DeSclafani – See added note above.

You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.