Advanced Stats - Pitching: Tuesday, June 26th
We lose Max Scherzer to the only day game on the board and such an early start (noon ET) that it’ll be underway before this is finished, so only the 14 night games will be listed. There are plenty of top end guys to overcome that loss.
As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, ownership projections and the weather forecast as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. All of these things are available right here on the site.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB% L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anibal Sanchez | Braves | 4.9 | 4.08 | 5.3 | 38.0% | 0.99 | 4.39 | 3.67 | Reds | 96 | 95 | 148 |
| Austin Bibens-Dirkx | Rangers | 0.6 | 5.06 | 5.8 | 39.1% | 1.14 | 3.19 | 7.09 | Padres | 72 | 81 | 79 |
| Blaine Hardy | Tigers | 2.8 | 4.50 | 5.6 | 39.9% | 1.02 | 4.36 | 4.01 | Athletics | 119 | 89 | 128 |
| Carlos Martinez | Cardinals | -0.2 | 4.05 | 6.2 | 52.6% | 0.93 | 4.84 | 6.02 | Indians | 86 | 106 | 140 |
| Chad Bettis | Rockies | 0.8 | 4.68 | 5.7 | 49.3% | 0.91 | 4.46 | 5.10 | Giants | 114 | 100 | 97 |
| Chad Kuhl | Pirates | -4.1 | 4.59 | 5.2 | 40.9% | 0.91 | 4.03 | 4.70 | Mets | 83 | 98 | 113 |
| Charlie Morton | Astros | 1.7 | 3.60 | 5.9 | 51.8% | 0.89 | 2.83 | 4.55 | Blue Jays | 95 | 103 | 118 |
| Corey Kluber | Indians | 6.8 | 2.96 | 6.9 | 44.5% | 0.93 | 3.16 | 3.49 | Cardinals | 94 | 95 | 96 |
| David Price | Red Sox | 5.1 | 3.95 | 6.2 | 41.6% | 1.12 | 4.94 | 3.99 | Angels | 110 | 96 | 78 |
| Derek Holland | Giants | -7.7 | 5.09 | 5.2 | 38.4% | 0.91 | 3.90 | 3.46 | Rockies | 84 | 101 | 131 |
| Elieser Hernandez | Marlins | -0.4 | 5.96 | 4.5 | 28.6% | 0.90 | 5.33 | 7.60 | Diamondbacks | 87 | 81 | 74 |
| Frankie Montas | Athletics | 3.5 | 4.62 | 6.6 | 40.4% | 1.02 | 4.15 | 5.44 | Tigers | 98 | 83 | 53 |
| Freddy Peralta | Brewers | 6.1 | 2.87 | 5.1 | 35.7% | 1.04 | 2.76 | Royals | 83 | 80 | 55 | |
| Jake Arrieta | Phillies | -9 | 4.30 | 5.8 | 48.8% | 0.99 | 3.86 | 5.05 | Yankees | 107 | 111 | 101 |
| Jakob Junis | Royals | 3.6 | 4.29 | 5.9 | 39.2% | 1.04 | 3.73 | 5.90 | Brewers | 91 | 97 | 77 |
| James Paxton | Mariners | -0.7 | 3.38 | 5.9 | 43.6% | 1.04 | 3.10 | 3.26 | Orioles | 91 | 80 | 86 |
| John Lamb | Angels | 2.9 | 3.57 | 4.2 | 36.4% | 1.12 | 3.67 | 3.56 | Red Sox | 121 | 86 | 114 |
| Jon Lester | Cubs | 11.2 | 4.10 | 5.8 | 44.3% | 0.90 | 4.33 | 5.99 | Dodgers | 97 | 101 | 113 |
| Kevin Gausman | Orioles | -9.1 | 4.07 | 5.8 | 44.3% | 1.04 | 3.64 | 5.02 | Mariners | 107 | 105 | 96 |
| Lance Lynn | Twins | 0.8 | 4.81 | 5.5 | 46.2% | 0.96 | 4.22 | 4.27 | White Sox | 93 | 93 | 76 |
| Luis Severino | Yankees | 6.4 | 3.24 | 6.1 | 47.7% | 0.99 | 2.81 | 3.38 | Phillies | 100 | 96 | 125 |
| Matt Harvey | Reds | -2.1 | 5.00 | 4.9 | 42.9% | 0.99 | 4.34 | 4.35 | Braves | 96 | 96 | 123 |
| Reynaldo Lopez | White Sox | -5 | 5.05 | 5.7 | 35.2% | 0.96 | 5.64 | 4.93 | Twins | 90 | 94 | 70 |
| Ross Stripling | Dodgers | -4.5 | 3.28 | 5.3 | 49.5% | 0.90 | 2.66 | 2.77 | Cubs | 100 | 102 | 84 |
| Steven Matz | Mets | -2.3 | 4.30 | 5.3 | 49.2% | 0.91 | 3.90 | 4.34 | Pirates | 90 | 102 | 31 |
| Tyson Ross | Padres | -5.8 | 4.79 | 5.4 | 45.5% | 1.14 | 3.62 | 4.94 | Rangers | 97 | 89 | 97 |
| Zack Godley | Diamondbacks | 4.1 | 3.94 | 5.8 | 54.2% | 0.90 | 4.54 | 3.83 | Marlins | 85 | 86 | 114 |
| Ryan Borucki | Blue Jays | -3.4 | 0.89 | Astros | 102 | 122 | 100 |
Blaine Hardy has allowed more than two runs in just one of his seven starts. His non-FIP estimators are a bit more aggressive due to his 7.4 HR/FB and he doesn’t miss a lot of bats (17.1 K%, 8.4 SwStr%), but the A’s can help some with that (16.7 K-BB% vs LHP). They’ve strangely struggled against southpaws, while pounding baseballs on the road otherwise (119 wRC+, 16.2 HR/FB) despite being able to produce a predominantly right-handed lineup. Hardy has done a decent job of managing contact as well.
Chad Bettis has allowed at least five runs in five straight starts. Only one of them was outside Coors though and that was in Texas. His strikeout rate is actually slightly up this month (19.4%). He’s been hit hard for sure, but his .343 wOBA over the last 30 days is the same as his season rate. Coors magnifies most flaws, while San Francisco masks them. That the Giants even have a 12.3 HR/FB there seems a victory with that and a 21.8 Hard-Soft% supporting a 114 wRC+ at home. It’s still not a bad matchup and they have a 16.7 K-BB% vs RHP with a 3.9 HR/FB over the last week.
Corey Kluber bounced back from his first failure to complete six innings this season, first effort allowing more than three runs and lowest strikeout total of the season (three) with seven one-hit innings (seven strikeouts) against the White Sox. His 27.2 K% is fifth best on the board, though his increase over the month is not supported by his SwStr% (3.05 K/SwStr). However, his .277 xwOBA for the season and .239 xwOBA over the last 30 days are both second best on the board (more than three starts). A significant park upgrade against a below average offense, makes this a very favorable spot for him. The Cardinals have a 15.1 K-BB% vs RHP and 26.2 K% over the last seven days.
James Paxton has allowed 10 runs over his last 7.1 innings with three HRs, four walks, but still 13 strikeouts (41 batters faced). Good news is that it’s that devastating AL East combo (Yankees and Red Sox) that did this to him. He’d previously completed seven innings in six of eight starts with double digit strikeouts in three of those starts. His 31.5 K% and 13.2 SwStr% are best on the board, but his 89.6 mph aEV is near the worst mark on the board, a slight concern in a power friendly park, but the baseball Gods give him a break tonight. The matchup in Baltimore (80 wRC+, 10 Hard-Soft% vs LHP) is a double positive for him. The Orioles are a predominantly right-handed lineup that can’t hit LHP, while he has a reverse split as well. There may not be as many strikeouts as one might expect in this lineup though. The Orioles are below a 22 K% at home, vs LHP and over the last week.
Luis Severino has completed seven innings in seven of 16 starts, failing to pitch into the sixth inning just twice this year. Among those with more than three starts, he’s second in both K% (30.2%) and SwStr% (12.7%), first in each mark over the last month (32.1%, 13.7%). His .289 xwOBA and .276 xwOBA over the last 30 days are both third best. The park in Philadelphia is not really an upgrade over Yankee Stadium, although it’s a little less power friendly for LHBs, which aids him a bit. The Phillies have been hot, but have a split high 26.5 K% vs RHP.
Ross Stripling just continues to roll. He did allow three runs for only the second time in a start this season last time out, but still got in his six innings with seven strikeouts at Wrigley, against a well-disciplined team (11.7 K-BB% vs RHP). That’s what many people may not realize about the Cubs. They’re not launch angle advocates and don’t generate a ton of power (11.3 HR/FB on the road, 11.4 HR/FB vs RHP). They just watch their Ks and BBs. That said, Stripling’s strikeout rate has dropped below 30%. Nobody expected him to maintain that, but nobody probably expects him to sustain 29.6% either, but his 11 SwStr% at least now says there’s a chance he’ll remain above 25%. To this, he adds some of the best contact management on the board (85.6 mph aEV, 3.7% Barrels/BBE, 27.7% 95+ mph EV), which allows him to generate the lowest xwOBA on the board (.237) by 40 points (among those with more than three starts). The rematch with the Cubs gives him a park boost.
Steven Matz got lit up in Colorado last time out. Or did he? A HR and all five runs driven in by Nolan Arenado is no shame for any southpaw in that park. He still struck out six of 27 and has basically faced a murderer’s row of offenses against LHP over the last month plus (Coors, at Arizona, Yankees, Cubs, at Atlanta, at Milwaukee, Diamondbacks again) and fared reasonably well. His ERA is a bit below his estimators and his swinging strike does not support a league average strikeout rate, but he’s in line over the last month. He’s also generating more ground balls (54.1% last six starts) with his only three HRs over that span going to Arenado (at Coors), Gleyber Torres and Miguel Andujar (you know, the two guys the Mets are going to trade deGrom for). There are still issues, but he’s facing the coldest offense in baseball (31 wRC+, 26.3 K%, 6.7 HR/FB last seven days) in one of the most negative run environments.
Zack Godley has increased his strikeout rate over the last month (25.6%) closer to last year’s rate with an increase in ground ball rate (57.5%) above last year’s 55.3%. So, he’s basically been the 2017 version since the end of May, but not quite, because he still has a 9.9 BB% and 41.1 Hard% over that span. It’s some improvement at least. His xwOBA has dropped below .350 for the month at least. Anyway, most importantly here, the Marlins (16.5 K-BB% vs RHP).
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is usually extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm.
League AVG (.288 BABIP – 72.9 LOB% – 13.1 HR/FB)
Anibal Sanchez (.222 – 85.5% – 13.6) against the Reds was not something I was expecting to care about in 2018, but he’s allowed more than two runs in just two of seven starts with a league average strikeout rate and the lowest aEV (84.4 mph) and 95+ mph EV (24.6%) on the board. That said, there are some issues with his strikeout rate (7.8 SwStr% last 30 days) and ERA, while the Reds are suddenly the hottest offense in baseball (148 wRC+ last seven days). They have just and 11.6 K-BB% vs RHP all year and over the last week, they are second in baseball with a 4.6 K-BB% and 22 HR/FB, leading the majors with a 34.4 Hard-Soft% over that span.
Carlos Martinez (.287 – 75.9 – 5.6) also has five unearned runs, 17.2% of his total for the season. His strikeout rate is below 20% since returning from the DL, but his walk rate is above that (22%). He’s allowed 15 ERs (17 R) in 16.2 June innings, while still somehow sustaining the second best aEV (84.6 mph) and 95+ mph EV (27.7%) on the board with the lowest rate of barrels per batted ball (2.7%). The Indians are not a good matchup for him at all (14.9 HR/FB vs RHP, 6.0 K-BB% last seven days), despite the negative run environment and DH loss.
Jake Arrieta (.271 – 65.4% – 10.9) still has struck out more than five just twice this season. He may frustrate the Yankee bats by keeping them on the ground though. Strangely, his strand rate is too low, which normally means his ERA has some positive regression in store, but 26.8% of his 41 runs have been unearned this season. He hates his defense and apparently the feeling is mutual.
Jon Lester (.231 – 87.6 – 10.2) has struck out just four of his last 51 batters and has an xwOBA above .350 to go with his ERA estimators well above four. A defense that’s far ahead of any other in the league can help somewhat, but there may be danger ahead.
Lance Lynn (.244 – 80.2% – 4.2 last 30 days) really hasn’t changed anything in his peripherals over the last month (12.8 BB%). The White Sox have been terrible (19.0 K-BB% at home, 18.3 K-BB vs RHP), but he’s overpriced and still has only gone beyond six innings once over the last month despite the BABIP and strand rate. Not a bad spot, but anything above $7K is probably overpriced.
Frankie Montas (.288 – 80.1% – 6.9) was tattooed by the Red Sox, but has otherwise been solid against the Padres, Royals (twice) and Diamondbacks. He has just a 15.1 K% (7.4 SwStr%) and this is another positive matchup against an offense with no patience (6.9 BB% vs RHP) or power (7.9 HR/FB vs RHP) and even one that’s been striking out a bit more (27.7 K% last seven days), but the cost is a bit high for someone with so few strikeouts. The run prevention against another inferior offense is likely to be fine again though.
Reynaldo Lopez (.257 – 73.3% – 7.1) also has six unearned runs (14.6% of his season total). He has a 16.9 K% and faces a decently disciplined offense (12.5 K-BB% vs RHP).
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Charlie Morton has walked 14 of his last 73 batters, striking out just 17, somehow, allowing just four ERs over those 15.2 innings. He allowed nine to the Yankees and Red Sox in the preceding 11.1 innings despite striking out 17 of 53 batters with just two walks. For the season, his 29.6 K% is still third best on the board (more than three starts) with a .297 xwOBA (fourth). That’s spiked up to .377 over the last month with estimators in the mid to high-fours, though he still sustains a 27 K%. The overall numbers seem to like him here, in maybe the most negative run environment in baseball against a marginal offense, but one with some power (23.7 K%, 15.2 HR/FB vs RHP). I can’t, in good conscious, entirely support those numbers and endorse him at a cost still $10K or even much higher on either site. There seems to be a problem here and it looks like his velocity has been dropping as well, though only to second half of last season levels, when he was extremely effective.
Kevin Gausman struck out just three Nationals in his last start and seven of his 24 walks this season have come in his last two starts, but his 12 SwStr% on the season is fourth best on the board, while he’s failed to at least record an out in the sixth in just two of his last 13 starts. That said, there are issues. The same ones there always are with him. He’s allowed 15 HRs, has an 89.4 mph aEV, a .399 xwOBA over the last month (second worst on the board) and pitches in a power friendly park. The Seattle offense is good (20.6 K%, 14.8 HR/FB vs RHP). They have RHBs who can hit RHP with power in the middle of the lineup and he has a major reverse platoon split (RHBs .370 wOBA this season, .344 for his career). The numbers like him a bit more at a reasonable cost here too, but the reverse split is not being factored in and is really the back breaker for me here.
Derek Holland has not been terrible is San Francisco and he does get the Rockies in an extremely negative run and power environment, but they’re a little bit competent against LHP (17.7 HR/FB). If you think that’s entirely a product of Coors, they have a 14.2 HR/FB on the road.
Matt Harvey is probably coming off his best start of the season against the Cubs (6 IP – 2 ER – 1 BB – 6 K – 25 BF) and is sooooo cheap (minimally priced on DraftKings, where I may have to give him a look) in a pretty marginal spot, but the Braves do make contact, he has significant issues with LHBs and an xwOBA that still sits above .350 for the season, month and on the road since last year.
Chad Kuhl – see Statcast table and look up LHB splits.
Austin Bibens-Dirx went 6.2 innings of one run ball at Kansas City last time out without striking out a single batter (4.9 SwStr%). He transitions from the hardest offense to strike out to one of the easiest (Padres 72 wRC+, 20.5 K-BB% on the road, 81 wRC+, 18 K-BB% vs RHP), but can’t transition away from being himself or pitching in a terrible park. However, not a lot of strikeouts are necessary for just $4.6K on DraftKings.
Freddy Peralta makes his first career home start. He’s been great against the Rockies and Pirates (20 Ks, 0 R), but was terrible in Minnesota (6 BB, 4 R). He’s thrown his four-seamer 83.9% of the time. It’s not that great a pitch (91.4 mph) and his location has been all over the place. That, the negative run environment and the Royals don’t strike out (18.9% vs RHP is lowest split on the board by a full point).
Jakob Junis may generate some strikeouts (Brewers 25.2 K% vs RHP, 29.3 K% last seven days), but their strength (15.6 HR/FB at home, 16 HR/FB vs RHP) is his weakness (19 HRs – three or more in a start three times).
Elieser Hernandez is a scratch arm, but at a basement price in a nice matchup at a great park.
David Price behind that guy for the Rangers? Consider that Price has been about a league average arm this season and finds himself in a tough spot (Angels 19.9 K% vs LHP) in a similarly positive run environment at a much higher cost than that guy for the Rangers.
Ryan Borucki is the sixth rated prospect in the Toronto system, though with just a 45 Future Value grade according to his Fangraphs player profile page. He’s missed a lot of time with arm injuries and has just a 9.5 K-BB% in 13 AAA starts this year, but has previously been around 20% for most of his minor league career (though only eight of those starts have come above A ball prior to this season). He must have pissed someone off because the Blue Jays are now willing to sacrifice this southpaw to the Astros in his major league debut.
Tyson Ross has seen a significant decline in his strikeout rate and finds himself pitching in the worst run environment on the board tonight.
Peripherals (Pitcher)
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anibal Sanchez | Braves | L2 Yrs | 21.9% | 6.5% | 16.8% | 13.9% | Season | 22.9% | 8.8% | 13.6% | -2.7% | Home | 18.3% | 7.3% | 13.6% | -8.3% | L14Days | 27.1% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 12.9% |
| Austin Bibens-Dirkx | Rangers | L2 Yrs | 13.0% | 5.9% | 13.2% | 21.6% | Season | 14.3% | 2.6% | 4.5% | 29.1% | Home | 20.7% | 3.5% | 38.1% | L14Days | 4.2% | 34.8% | |||
| Blaine Hardy | Tigers | L2 Yrs | 18.1% | 7.8% | 9.5% | 12.6% | Season | 17.1% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 12.6% | Home | 18.5% | 7.6% | 4.2% | 10.4% | L14Days | 17.4% | 4.4% | 8.3% | 8.4% |
| Carlos Martinez | Cardinals | L2 Yrs | 23.8% | 9.5% | 13.0% | 11.8% | Season | 21.6% | 14.0% | 5.6% | 14.7% | Home | 18.0% | 12.2% | 6.7% | 7.9% | L14Days | 16.0% | 16.0% | 14.3% | 32.3% |
| Chad Bettis | Rockies | L2 Yrs | 16.4% | 8.1% | 14.7% | 11.8% | Season | 17.2% | 8.7% | 16.9% | 14.9% | Road | 17.3% | 9.1% | 12.5% | 14.6% | L14Days | 19.6% | 15.7% | 28.6% | 6.0% |
| Chad Kuhl | Pirates | L2 Yrs | 20.4% | 9.2% | 11.7% | 17.9% | Season | 21.7% | 8.7% | 15.9% | 20.1% | Road | 20.2% | 6.0% | 16.7% | 19.6% | L14Days | 18.2% | 9.1% | 22.2% | 15.7% |
| Charlie Morton | Astros | L2 Yrs | 27.6% | 8.8% | 14.5% | 7.8% | Season | 29.6% | 10.1% | 18.3% | 13.1% | Home | 31.4% | 8.5% | 23.5% | 5.4% | L14Days | 26.0% | 16.0% | 7.1% | |
| Corey Kluber | Indians | L2 Yrs | 30.6% | 5.1% | 13.7% | 10.5% | Season | 27.2% | 2.9% | 15.7% | 20.4% | Road | 24.5% | 3.2% | 17.8% | 15.5% | L14Days | 24.4% | 4.9% | 16.7% | 6.9% |
| David Price | Red Sox | L2 Yrs | 22.8% | 6.7% | 10.8% | 13.5% | Season | 23.0% | 8.7% | 9.1% | 8.7% | Home | 20.9% | 11.5% | 9.1% | 6.4% | L14Days | 20.0% | 2.0% | 11.8% | 5.3% |
| Derek Holland | Giants | L2 Yrs | 18.0% | 10.5% | 15.3% | 20.6% | Season | 21.5% | 9.4% | 11.7% | 19.8% | Home | 23.8% | 7.9% | 6.1% | 24.4% | L14Days | 29.2% | 8.3% | 15.4% | 13.3% |
| Elieser Hernandez | Marlins | L2 Yrs | 10.2% | 8.8% | 9.6% | 24.3% | Season | 10.2% | 8.8% | 9.6% | 24.3% | Home | 11.0% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 20.6% | L14Days | 9.3% | 18.6% | 6.4% | |
| Frankie Montas | Athletics | L2 Yrs | 19.6% | 10.3% | 17.9% | 24.6% | Season | 15.1% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 32.0% | Road | 14.3% | 5.4% | 34.9% | L14Days | 12.5% | 12.5% | 12.5% | 35.7% | |
| Freddy Peralta | Brewers | L2 Yrs | 41.0% | 13.1% | 8.3% | 10.7% | Season | 41.0% | 13.1% | 8.3% | 10.7% | Home | L14Days | 33.3% | 14.3% | ||||||
| Jake Arrieta | Phillies | L2 Yrs | 20.8% | 8.5% | 13.8% | 7.6% | Season | 16.6% | 8.0% | 10.9% | 7.9% | Home | 22.2% | 8.2% | 10.8% | 1.7% | L14Days | 13.3% | 8.9% | 30.0% | 38.3% |
| Jakob Junis | Royals | L2 Yrs | 20.1% | 6.1% | 14.0% | 21.3% | Season | 21.4% | 6.2% | 15.7% | 22.9% | Road | 22.4% | 4.6% | 11.6% | 18.9% | L14Days | 13.7% | 9.8% | 18.2% | 36.8% |
| James Paxton | Mariners | L2 Yrs | 27.5% | 6.1% | 9.0% | 15.7% | Season | 31.5% | 7.4% | 12.1% | 18.4% | Road | 30.4% | 6.6% | 10.9% | 21.2% | L14Days | 31.7% | 9.8% | 37.5% | 41.7% |
| John Lamb | Angels | L2 Yrs | 27.1% | 7.4% | 28.1% | 21.3% | Season | 25.0% | 5.6% | 27.3% | 28.0% | Road | 26.3% | 5.3% | 33.3% | 23.1% | L14Days | 25.0% | 5.6% | 27.3% | 28.0% |
| Jon Lester | Cubs | L2 Yrs | 22.6% | 7.8% | 13.4% | 10.9% | Season | 19.3% | 8.5% | 10.2% | 21.8% | Road | 21.2% | 7.9% | 17.6% | 19.9% | L14Days | 7.8% | 7.8% | 11.8% | 34.9% |
| Kevin Gausman | Orioles | L2 Yrs | 22.6% | 7.5% | 15.4% | 14.7% | Season | 21.9% | 6.3% | 18.1% | 14.7% | Home | 24.3% | 6.5% | 17.8% | 18.9% | L14Days | 20.0% | 14.0% | 12.5% | 12.5% |
| Lance Lynn | Twins | L2 Yrs | 20.4% | 11.2% | 13.8% | 10.9% | Season | 22.1% | 13.9% | 12.5% | 18.2% | Road | 21.8% | 11.8% | 15.6% | 21.4% | L14Days | 22.5% | 12.2% | 14.3% | |
| Luis Severino | Yankees | L2 Yrs | 29.2% | 6.9% | 10.9% | 9.2% | Season | 30.2% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 9.3% | Road | 29.5% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 16.4% | L14Days | 26.9% | 5.8% | 7.1% | -8.9% |
| Matt Harvey | Reds | L2 Yrs | 16.5% | 9.2% | 18.2% | 14.6% | Season | 17.6% | 6.8% | 16.7% | 23.6% | Road | 14.2% | 5.3% | 15.0% | 34.0% | L14Days | 18.2% | 6.8% | 9.7% | |
| Reynaldo Lopez | White Sox | L2 Yrs | 17.3% | 9.5% | 8.0% | 9.1% | Season | 16.9% | 10.2% | 7.1% | 9.0% | Home | 14.9% | 9.3% | 6.5% | -1.6% | L14Days | 18.0% | 8.0% | 10.5% | 25.0% |
| Ross Stripling | Dodgers | L2 Yrs | 24.5% | 5.2% | 13.6% | 6.5% | Season | 29.6% | 3.8% | 10.4% | 3.2% | Home | 28.9% | 3.2% | 11.4% | L14Days | 27.1% | 14.3% | 11.4% | ||
| Steven Matz | Mets | L2 Yrs | 19.7% | 7.7% | 17.8% | 12.9% | Season | 21.0% | 10.0% | 17.9% | 17.4% | Home | 24.1% | 9.7% | 30.3% | 21.0% | L14Days | 16.7% | 5.6% | 7.7% | 24.4% |
| Tyson Ross | Padres | L2 Yrs | 19.9% | 11.4% | 12.1% | 17.8% | Season | 23.0% | 8.7% | 11.4% | 17.8% | Road | 26.0% | 9.0% | 10.9% | 18.3% | L14Days | 14.0% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 5.4% |
| Zack Godley | Diamondbacks | L2 Yrs | 23.2% | 8.9% | 16.3% | 14.0% | Season | 22.4% | 11.1% | 16.4% | 12.9% | Road | 20.9% | 13.6% | 16.7% | 8.6% | L14Days | 25.0% | 11.5% | 12.5% | 18.7% |
| Ryan Borucki | Blue Jays | L2 Yrs | Season | Road | L14Days |
Peripherals (Opponent)
| OpTm | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reds | Road | 18.9% | 8.3% | 10.7% | 16.8% | RH | 21.0% | 9.4% | 11.2% | 19.2% | L7Days | 18.1% | 13.5% | 22.0% | 34.4% |
| Padres | Road | 26.4% | 5.9% | 11.1% | 14.4% | RH | 25.8% | 7.8% | 10.5% | 16.1% | L7Days | 23.8% | 7.2% | 10.0% | 21.9% |
| Athletics | Road | 21.8% | 8.3% | 16.2% | 23.9% | LH | 23.8% | 7.1% | 12.0% | 25.0% | L7Days | 18.4% | 8.8% | 15.8% | 16.7% |
| Indians | Road | 22.2% | 8.0% | 12.3% | 15.4% | RH | 21.5% | 8.6% | 14.9% | 24.2% | L7Days | 18.5% | 12.5% | 15.9% | 23.0% |
| Giants | Home | 22.6% | 7.9% | 12.3% | 21.8% | RH | 24.2% | 7.5% | 10.8% | 18.7% | L7Days | 19.2% | 8.2% | 5.9% | 12.9% |
| Mets | Home | 23.9% | 8.9% | 8.9% | 12.0% | RH | 21.4% | 9.2% | 12.0% | 18.2% | L7Days | 22.3% | 10.2% | 9.5% | 8.6% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 22.9% | 9.2% | 13.6% | 20.0% | RH | 23.7% | 9.2% | 15.2% | 18.1% | L7Days | 22.5% | 7.1% | 16.9% | 26.6% |
| Cardinals | Home | 20.1% | 7.9% | 12.2% | 23.7% | RH | 23.3% | 8.2% | 14.2% | 21.6% | L7Days | 26.2% | 10.3% | 15.0% | 17.8% |
| Angels | Road | 19.0% | 8.7% | 13.8% | 19.8% | LH | 19.9% | 9.5% | 12.0% | 16.0% | L7Days | 23.1% | 7.1% | 14.0% | 16.0% |
| Rockies | Road | 23.6% | 8.5% | 14.2% | 15.4% | LH | 21.9% | 8.2% | 17.7% | 18.2% | L7Days | 22.2% | 9.1% | 19.0% | 23.7% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 25.1% | 8.9% | 14.9% | 17.4% | RH | 24.8% | 9.6% | 13.3% | 19.4% | L7Days | 21.7% | 8.2% | 12.1% | 11.9% |
| Tigers | Home | 20.2% | 6.8% | 8.5% | 24.6% | RH | 22.1% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 19.2% | L7Days | 27.7% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 16.2% |
| Royals | Road | 20.3% | 6.7% | 10.1% | 16.9% | RH | 18.9% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 22.6% | L7Days | 27.2% | 8.3% | 6.0% | 12.9% |
| Yankees | Road | 23.4% | 8.5% | 16.1% | 16.7% | RH | 23.4% | 9.4% | 16.5% | 18.3% | L7Days | 24.3% | 9.7% | 17.5% | 23.4% |
| Brewers | Home | 25.2% | 9.5% | 15.6% | 23.5% | RH | 25.2% | 8.2% | 16.0% | 16.8% | L7Days | 29.3% | 6.6% | 13.5% | 14.3% |
| Orioles | Home | 21.6% | 8.0% | 12.9% | 10.5% | LH | 21.4% | 7.9% | 11.3% | 10.0% | L7Days | 21.7% | 6.6% | 17.9% | 18.3% |
| Red Sox | Home | 18.4% | 8.1% | 13.6% | 17.4% | LH | 24.0% | 7.3% | 10.7% | 12.3% | L7Days | 18.7% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 27.5% |
| Dodgers | Home | 23.3% | 8.8% | 13.5% | 14.3% | LH | 21.9% | 10.8% | 12.0% | 18.9% | L7Days | 18.6% | 11.7% | 16.7% | 18.4% |
| Mariners | Road | 19.3% | 8.2% | 12.9% | 20.0% | RH | 20.6% | 7.2% | 14.8% | 17.0% | L7Days | 23.4% | 8.6% | 10.2% | 10.0% |
| White Sox | Home | 25.9% | 6.9% | 10.9% | 6.3% | RH | 25.0% | 6.7% | 11.5% | 10.4% | L7Days | 25.0% | 4.5% | 9.6% | 7.3% |
| Phillies | Home | 24.9% | 10.5% | 14.5% | 8.6% | RH | 26.5% | 10.4% | 14.6% | 8.4% | L7Days | 24.7% | 11.7% | 23.9% | 9.3% |
| Braves | Home | 19.6% | 8.8% | 10.5% | 21.2% | RH | 20.5% | 8.8% | 10.9% | 18.4% | L7Days | 18.8% | 9.8% | 10.2% | 25.3% |
| Twins | Road | 22.4% | 8.5% | 10.2% | 19.5% | RH | 21.5% | 9.0% | 10.7% | 22.4% | L7Days | 21.4% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 12.7% |
| Cubs | Road | 22.2% | 9.8% | 11.3% | 15.1% | RH | 21.2% | 9.5% | 11.4% | 13.0% | L7Days | 23.7% | 8.1% | 12.3% | 14.8% |
| Pirates | Road | 21.0% | 8.1% | 11.8% | 15.2% | LH | 21.6% | 9.8% | 11.0% | 10.6% | L7Days | 26.3% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 8.7% |
| Rangers | Home | 24.9% | 10.6% | 14.6% | 24.4% | RH | 25.4% | 9.7% | 13.8% | 22.2% | L7Days | 23.0% | 9.8% | 9.5% | 30.8% |
| Marlins | Home | 21.6% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 15.0% | RH | 23.7% | 7.2% | 11.1% | 15.8% | L7Days | 27.1% | 7.1% | 13.5% | 15.5% |
| Astros | Home | 21.4% | 9.6% | 12.3% | 10.5% | LH | 20.5% | 8.8% | 10.9% | 17.1% | L7Days | 17.9% | 14.0% | 10.4% | 8.2% |
K/SwStr Chart (2018 LG AVG – 21.7 K% – 10.1 SwStr% – 2.15 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anibal Sanchez | Braves | 22.9% | 9.1% | 2.52 | 22.3% | 7.8% | 2.86 |
| Austin Bibens-Dirkx | Rangers | 14.3% | 10.6% | 1.35 | 10.4% | 7.4% | 1.41 |
| Blaine Hardy | Tigers | 17.1% | 8.4% | 2.04 | 16.0% | 7.3% | 2.19 |
| Carlos Martinez | Cardinals | 21.6% | 9.2% | 2.35 | 19.8% | 8.9% | 2.22 |
| Chad Bettis | Rockies | 17.2% | 8.8% | 1.95 | 19.4% | 8.6% | 2.26 |
| Chad Kuhl | Pirates | 21.7% | 9.5% | 2.28 | 20.2% | 10.2% | 1.98 |
| Charlie Morton | Astros | 29.6% | 12.4% | 2.39 | 27.0% | 11.4% | 2.37 |
| Corey Kluber | Indians | 27.2% | 10.6% | 2.57 | 29.9% | 9.8% | 3.05 |
| David Price | Red Sox | 23.0% | 8.9% | 2.58 | 22.3% | 8.5% | 2.62 |
| Derek Holland | Giants | 21.5% | 9.3% | 2.31 | 21.7% | 11.4% | 1.90 |
| Elieser Hernandez | Marlins | 10.2% | 8.3% | 1.23 | 9.3% | 7.7% | 1.21 |
| Frankie Montas | Athletics | 15.1% | 7.4% | 2.04 | 15.1% | 7.4% | 2.04 |
| Freddy Peralta | Brewers | 41.0% | 14.3% | 2.87 | 33.3% | 12.1% | 2.75 |
| Jake Arrieta | Phillies | 16.6% | 6.7% | 2.48 | 15.8% | 6.8% | 2.32 |
| Jakob Junis | Royals | 21.4% | 9.5% | 2.25 | 20.6% | 9.9% | 2.08 |
| James Paxton | Mariners | 31.5% | 13.2% | 2.39 | 28.6% | 11.6% | 2.47 |
| John Lamb | Angels | 25.0% | 9.2% | 2.72 | 25.0% | 9.2% | 2.72 |
| Jon Lester | Cubs | 19.3% | 9.0% | 2.14 | 17.1% | 6.9% | 2.48 |
| Kevin Gausman | Orioles | 21.9% | 12.0% | 1.83 | 21.9% | 11.1% | 1.97 |
| Lance Lynn | Twins | 22.1% | 10.2% | 2.17 | 22.4% | 10.6% | 2.11 |
| Luis Severino | Yankees | 30.2% | 12.7% | 2.38 | 32.1% | 13.7% | 2.34 |
| Matt Harvey | Reds | 17.6% | 8.0% | 2.20 | 17.0% | 8.0% | 2.13 |
| Reynaldo Lopez | White Sox | 16.9% | 9.3% | 1.82 | 17.4% | 9.2% | 1.89 |
| Ross Stripling | Dodgers | 29.6% | 11.0% | 2.69 | 29.7% | 12.7% | 2.34 |
| Steven Matz | Mets | 21.0% | 7.6% | 2.76 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 2.45 |
| Tyson Ross | Padres | 23.0% | 9.6% | 2.40 | 18.0% | 7.5% | 2.40 |
| Zack Godley | Diamondbacks | 22.4% | 10.9% | 2.06 | 25.6% | 11.7% | 2.19 |
| Ryan Borucki | Blue Jays |
Corey Kluber had three straight starts below a 9.5 SwStr% before bouncing back to 14.6% last time out.
Steven Matz still has a problem here. Mentioned above, his K% is in line with his SwStr% over the last month. However, it’s been below 7% in each of his last three starts.
ERA Estimators Chart (2018 LG AVG – 4.18 ERA – 4.16 SIERA – 4.12 xFIP – 4.22 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | Season DRA | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anibal Sanchez | Braves | 2.55 | 4.09 | 1.54 | 2.55 | 1.62 | 4.31 | 1.76 | 3.14 | 0.59 | 3.18 | 4.12 | 0.94 | 4.3 | 1.12 | 4.70 | 1.52 |
| Austin Bibens-Dirkx | Rangers | 4.58 | 4.53 | -0.05 | 4.58 | -0.01 | 3.28 | -1.30 | 5.91 | 1.33 | 3.97 | 5.24 | 1.27 | 5.35 | 1.38 | 3.90 | -0.07 |
| Blaine Hardy | Tigers | 3.30 | 4.46 | 1.16 | 3.30 | 1.28 | 3.75 | 0.45 | 4.23 | 0.93 | 3.23 | 4.36 | 1.13 | 4.3 | 1.07 | 3.50 | 0.27 |
| Carlos Martinez | Cardinals | 3.24 | 4.85 | 1.61 | 3.24 | 1.58 | 4.08 | 0.84 | 6.03 | 2.79 | 8.10 | 6.50 | -1.60 | 6.3 | -1.80 | 6.29 | -1.81 |
| Chad Bettis | Rockies | 5.23 | 4.65 | -0.58 | 5.23 | -0.79 | 4.98 | -0.25 | 4.87 | -0.36 | 9.69 | 4.28 | -5.41 | 4.28 | -5.41 | 6.65 | -3.04 |
| Chad Kuhl | Pirates | 4.56 | 4.29 | -0.27 | 4.56 | -0.28 | 4.75 | 0.19 | 4.61 | 0.05 | 5.33 | 4.66 | -0.67 | 4.68 | -0.65 | 4.92 | -0.41 |
| Charlie Morton | Astros | 2.74 | 3.43 | 0.69 | 2.74 | 0.57 | 3.82 | 1.08 | 2.79 | 0.05 | 4.33 | 4.13 | -0.20 | 4.36 | 0.03 | 4.96 | 0.63 |
| Corey Kluber | Indians | 2.10 | 2.87 | 0.77 | 2.10 | 0.63 | 3.06 | 0.96 | 2.52 | 0.42 | 1.91 | 2.52 | 0.61 | 2.45 | 0.54 | 2.35 | 0.44 |
| David Price | Red Sox | 3.81 | 4.13 | 0.32 | 3.81 | 0.40 | 3.70 | -0.11 | 4.89 | 1.08 | 3.30 | 4.12 | 0.82 | 4.21 | 0.91 | 3.61 | 0.31 |
| Derek Holland | Giants | 4.48 | 4.42 | -0.06 | 4.48 | 0.00 | 4.35 | -0.13 | 4.91 | 0.43 | 3.96 | 4.22 | 0.26 | 3.92 | -0.04 | 3.91 | -0.05 |
| Elieser Hernandez | Marlins | 5.12 | 5.96 | 0.84 | 5.12 | 0.92 | 5.41 | 0.29 | 6.39 | 1.27 | 7.23 | 6.97 | -0.26 | 7.17 | -0.06 | 6.80 | -0.43 |
| Frankie Montas | Athletics | 2.41 | 4.68 | 2.27 | 2.41 | 1.93 | 3.70 | 1.29 | 5.66 | 3.25 | 2.41 | 4.68 | 2.27 | 4.34 | 1.93 | 3.70 | 1.29 |
| Freddy Peralta | Brewers | 2.30 | 2.85 | 0.55 | 2.30 | 0.40 | 2.28 | -0.02 | 2.87 | 0.57 | 0.00 | 2.76 | 2.76 | 3.22 | 3.22 | 0.77 | 0.77 |
| Jake Arrieta | Phillies | 3.42 | 4.37 | 0.95 | 3.42 | 0.74 | 3.99 | 0.57 | 4.57 | 1.15 | 5.20 | 4.41 | -0.79 | 4.39 | -0.81 | 5.39 | 0.19 |
| Jakob Junis | Royals | 4.43 | 4.07 | -0.36 | 4.43 | 0.01 | 4.98 | 0.55 | 5.17 | 0.74 | 6.30 | 4.48 | -1.82 | 5.14 | -1.16 | 6.11 | -0.19 |
| James Paxton | Mariners | 3.72 | 3.06 | -0.66 | 3.72 | -0.57 | 3.09 | -0.63 | 2.77 | -0.95 | 5.33 | 3.32 | -2.01 | 3.1 | -2.23 | 3.52 | -1.81 |
| John Lamb | Angels | 5.40 | 3.55 | -1.85 | 5.40 | -1.58 | 6.35 | 0.95 | 6.90 | 1.50 | 5.40 | 3.56 | -1.84 | 3.82 | -1.58 | 6.35 | 0.95 |
| Jon Lester | Cubs | 2.10 | 4.55 | 2.45 | 2.10 | 2.43 | 4.20 | 2.10 | 3.77 | 1.67 | 1.64 | 4.63 | 2.99 | 4.65 | 3.01 | 4.35 | 2.71 |
| Kevin Gausman | Orioles | 4.38 | 3.80 | -0.58 | 4.38 | -0.69 | 4.36 | -0.02 | 3.73 | -0.65 | 6.49 | 3.87 | -2.62 | 3.8 | -2.69 | 4.97 | -1.52 |
| Lance Lynn | Twins | 4.64 | 4.73 | 0.09 | 4.64 | -0.28 | 4.36 | -0.28 | 6.64 | 2.00 | 2.12 | 4.58 | 2.46 | 4.36 | 2.24 | 3.48 | 1.36 |
| Luis Severino | Yankees | 2.24 | 3.02 | 0.78 | 2.24 | 0.71 | 2.33 | 0.09 | 2.35 | 0.11 | 2.14 | 2.70 | 0.56 | 2.83 | 0.69 | 2.48 | 0.34 |
| Matt Harvey | Reds | 5.66 | 4.47 | -1.19 | 5.66 | -1.16 | 5.11 | -0.55 | 4.76 | -0.90 | 5.93 | 4.59 | -1.34 | 4.69 | -1.24 | 5.34 | -0.59 |
| Reynaldo Lopez | White Sox | 3.59 | 5.18 | 1.59 | 3.59 | 1.93 | 4.51 | 0.92 | 6.32 | 2.73 | 5.13 | 5.11 | -0.02 | 5.83 | 0.70 | 4.21 | -0.92 |
| Ross Stripling | Dodgers | 1.99 | 2.73 | 0.74 | 1.99 | 0.74 | 2.47 | 0.48 | 2.13 | 0.14 | 2.32 | 2.64 | 0.32 | 2.73 | 0.41 | 3.14 | 0.82 |
| Steven Matz | Mets | 3.68 | 4.38 | 0.70 | 3.68 | 0.72 | 5.05 | 1.37 | 5.07 | 1.39 | 3.49 | 4.26 | 0.77 | 4.17 | 0.68 | 4.17 | 0.68 |
| Tyson Ross | Padres | 3.34 | 3.98 | 0.64 | 3.34 | 0.39 | 3.61 | 0.27 | 4.42 | 1.08 | 3.77 | 4.40 | 0.63 | 4.1 | 0.33 | 4.15 | 0.38 |
| Zack Godley | Diamondbacks | 4.64 | 4.27 | -0.37 | 4.64 | -0.56 | 4.49 | -0.15 | 5.05 | 0.41 | 4.88 | 3.75 | -1.13 | 4.01 | -0.87 | 4.59 | -0.29 |
| Ryan Borucki | Blue Jays |
Blaine Hardy has a 7.4 HR/FB. That could nearly double over the rest of the season, but the contact hasn’t been bad.
Chad Bettis has a .363 BABIP, 55.6 LOB% and 30.8 HR/FB over the last month, all starts in terrible run environments.
Corey Kluber has a .232 BABIP and 88.2 LOB%.
James Paxton has estimators more than a half run below his ERA, but I’m seeing nothing wrong here (.294 BABIP, 74.8 LOB%, 12.1 HR/FB – though maybe the strand rate is generally higher for such a high strikeout rate) and in fact, the rate of hard contact in his Statcast table probably supports this.
Ross Stripling has an 87.8 LOB% since making his last relief appearance. That, he will not be able to sustain, though all of his estimators are still below three.
Steven Matz has a .259 BABIP, which the rest of the Mets’ pitchers scoff at and 17.1% of his runs have been unearned.
BABIP & Statcast Chart (2018 LG AVG – .288 BABIP – 43.2 GB% – 21.1 LD% – 10.3 IFFB% – 86.3 Z-Contact% – 36.5 Z-O-Swing%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | GB% | LD% | IFFB% | Z-contact% | Z-O-Swing% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anibal Sanchez | Braves | 0.279 | 0.222 | -0.057 | 44.6% | 16.1% | 9.1% | 82.4% | 34.6% |
| Austin Bibens-Dirkx | Rangers | 0.301 | 0.344 | 0.043 | 36.1% | 27.9% | 9.1% | 94.9% | 37.8% |
| Blaine Hardy | Tigers | 0.289 | 0.285 | -0.004 | 41.2% | 17.6% | 14.8% | 90.2% | 30.3% |
| Carlos Martinez | Cardinals | 0.284 | 0.287 | 0.003 | 51.4% | 18.4% | 13.0% | 87.7% | 35.2% |
| Chad Bettis | Rockies | 0.315 | 0.287 | -0.028 | 47.5% | 20.9% | 6.0% | 88.3% | 35.5% |
| Chad Kuhl | Pirates | 0.294 | 0.314 | 0.020 | 35.8% | 26.3% | 9.1% | 85.6% | 42.7% |
| Charlie Morton | Astros | 0.270 | 0.257 | -0.013 | 51.7% | 19.9% | 11.7% | 81.0% | 31.9% |
| Corey Kluber | Indians | 0.285 | 0.232 | -0.053 | 48.8% | 20.2% | 11.2% | 89.9% | 30.5% |
| David Price | Red Sox | 0.291 | 0.283 | -0.008 | 39.8% | 19.1% | 16.2% | 85.9% | 38.0% |
| Derek Holland | Giants | 0.298 | 0.281 | -0.017 | 37.4% | 20.3% | 13.8% | 86.5% | 44.0% |
| Elieser Hernandez | Marlins | 0.291 | 0.302 | 0.011 | 28.6% | 21.9% | 9.6% | 87.3% | 41.2% |
| Frankie Montas | Athletics | 0.276 | 0.288 | 0.012 | 44.8% | 27.6% | 3.4% | 90.8% | 46.5% |
| Freddy Peralta | Brewers | 0.268 | 0.185 | -0.083 | 35.7% | 21.4% | 16.7% | 75.4% | 32.4% |
| Jake Arrieta | Phillies | 0.302 | 0.271 | -0.031 | 55.6% | 17.6% | 10.9% | 90.9% | 31.7% |
| Jakob Junis | Royals | 0.303 | 0.270 | -0.033 | 38.1% | 17.6% | 10.7% | 89.8% | 29.9% |
| James Paxton | Mariners | 0.297 | 0.294 | -0.003 | 37.8% | 20.6% | 11.1% | 82.7% | 36.5% |
| John Lamb | Angels | 0.297 | 0.273 | -0.024 | 40.0% | 16.0% | 9.1% | 89.4% | 32.7% |
| Jon Lester | Cubs | 0.265 | 0.231 | -0.034 | 38.6% | 22.3% | 7.1% | 85.8% | 38.8% |
| Kevin Gausman | Orioles | 0.325 | 0.328 | 0.003 | 47.4% | 21.6% | 12.0% | 83.8% | 35.5% |
| Lance Lynn | Twins | 0.295 | 0.322 | 0.027 | 51.7% | 21.5% | 8.9% | 85.7% | 43.9% |
| Luis Severino | Yankees | 0.279 | 0.276 | -0.003 | 44.9% | 20.9% | 8.0% | 82.4% | 35.2% |
| Matt Harvey | Reds | 0.294 | 0.285 | -0.009 | 41.6% | 22.0% | 12.8% | 87.2% | 44.5% |
| Reynaldo Lopez | White Sox | 0.292 | 0.257 | -0.035 | 35.1% | 17.4% | 15.1% | 86.2% | 47.2% |
| Ross Stripling | Dodgers | 0.293 | 0.310 | 0.017 | 47.1% | 17.1% | 17.9% | 86.1% | 32.6% |
| Steven Matz | Mets | 0.304 | 0.259 | -0.045 | 51.3% | 14.4% | 3.0% | 87.0% | 41.6% |
| Tyson Ross | Padres | 0.301 | 0.272 | -0.029 | 44.7% | 26.6% | 7.1% | 89.4% | 30.3% |
| Zack Godley | Diamondbacks | 0.277 | 0.312 | 0.035 | 52.5% | 19.3% | 17.9% | 89.9% | 33.7% |
| Ryan Borucki | Blue Jays | 0.304 |
Chad Bettis is still somehow well below his defense for the season despite a .353 BABIP over the last month. It’s the park. His profile is fine. But the park isn’t going to change. He could be a bit better on the road, like tonight.
Corey Kluber has seen his BABIP decline in every major league season. While his overall profile is fine this year and he’s getting a large portion of his swings outside of the strike zone, his current rate is still not something he should be able to continue supporting.
Steven Matz has a low line drive rate and more ground balls recently, but he’s not getting swings out of the zone often, the defense is more suspect than was expected and the line drive rate may be unsustainable.
Zack Godley really has no basis for a BABIP above .300, although the high rate of hard contact wouldn’t show up on this profile as it correlates more to power than BABIP in general, but it would be crazy to think it can’t ever have any effect.
StatCast Chart (2018 LG AVG – .315 wOBA)
All stats from BaseballSavant.com.
| Player | Team | xwOBA | wOBA-xwOBA | xwOBA H/A | wOBA-xwOBA H/A | xwOBA L30 Days | wOBA-xwOBA L30 Days | Effective Velocity | Exit Velocity | Barrels BBE | 95+ MPH ExV | BBE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anibal Sanchez | Braves | 0.305 | -0.020 | 0.296 | 0.018 | 0.310 | -0.021 | 0.100 | 84.4 | 7.0 | 24.600 | 114 |
| Austin Bibens-Dirkx | Rangers | 0.340 | -0.006 | 0.376 | -0.029 | 0.335 | 0.011 | -1.200 | 90.4 | 3.2 | 38.700 | 62 |
| Blaine Hardy | Tigers | 0.312 | -0.015 | 0.336 | -0.013 | 0.322 | -0.048 | -0.300 | 86.9 | 7.5 | 32.800 | 134 |
| Carlos Martinez | Cardinals | 0.317 | -0.009 | 0.286 | 0.002 | 0.373 | 0.051 | -1.800 | 84.6 | 2.7 | 27.700 | 184 |
| Chad Bettis | Rockies | 0.345 | -0.003 | 0.338 | -0.021 | 0.343 | 0.088 | -0.500 | 88.3 | 7.1 | 39.600 | 268 |
| Chad Kuhl | Pirates | 0.388 | -0.039 | 0.357 | -0.013 | 0.404 | -0.040 | -0.500 | 88.2 | 11.1 | 38.700 | 243 |
| Charlie Morton | Astros | 0.297 | -0.011 | 0.291 | -0.001 | 0.377 | -0.026 | -0.800 | 87.7 | 7.0 | 31.900 | 213 |
| Corey Kluber | Indians | 0.277 | -0.043 | 0.300 | -0.039 | 0.239 | -0.026 | -0.400 | 87.5 | 6.9 | 32.100 | 290 |
| David Price | Red Sox | 0.327 | -0.029 | 0.313 | -0.039 | 0.300 | -0.002 | -0.800 | 87.1 | 7.4 | 32.600 | 242 |
| Derek Holland | Giants | 0.354 | -0.029 | 0.361 | -0.016 | 0.342 | -0.016 | -0.900 | 88.2 | 8.8 | 38.600 | 228 |
| Elieser Hernandez | Marlins | 0.350 | 0.014 | 0.335 | -0.017 | 0.367 | 0.048 | -0.100 | 87 | 3.6 | 36.000 | 111 |
| Frankie Montas | Athletics | 0.308 | -0.008 | 0.355 | -0.008 | 0.308 | -0.008 | -0.900 | 87.5 | 3.8 | 34.900 | 106 |
| Freddy Peralta | Brewers | 0.256 | -0.054 | 0.182 | -0.098 | 1.600 | 88.3 | 3.6 | 42.900 | 28 | ||
| Jake Arrieta | Phillies | 0.306 | -0.012 | 0.276 | -0.014 | 0.327 | 0.012 | -0.700 | 87.2 | 3.3 | 33.600 | 241 |
| Jakob Junis | Royals | 0.333 | -0.010 | 0.338 | -0.020 | 0.330 | 0.040 | -0.800 | 89.1 | 9.8 | 35.600 | 275 |
| James Paxton | Mariners | 0.307 | -0.025 | 0.291 | -0.019 | 0.308 | 0.013 | -0.400 | 89.6 | 8.8 | 42.500 | 240 |
| John Lamb | Angels | 0.371 | 0.015 | 0.370 | -0.072 | 0.371 | 0.015 | 0.500 | 89.4 | 12.0 | 52.000 | 25 |
| Jon Lester | Cubs | 0.355 | -0.076 | 0.328 | -0.011 | 0.375 | -0.118 | -0.300 | 89.2 | 7.8 | 39.300 | 257 |
| Kevin Gausman | Orioles | 0.347 | -0.002 | 0.350 | -0.007 | 0.399 | 0.002 | -0.600 | 89.4 | 8.5 | 42.400 | 271 |
| Lance Lynn | Twins | 0.337 | -0.003 | 0.328 | 0.007 | 0.293 | -0.026 | -0.300 | 87.8 | 5.3 | 39.200 | 209 |
| Luis Severino | Yankees | 0.289 | -0.046 | 0.265 | -0.010 | 0.276 | -0.027 | -0.400 | 87.3 | 7.0 | 33.600 | 256 |
| Matt Harvey | Reds | 0.366 | -0.023 | 0.365 | 0.024 | 0.362 | -0.022 | -0.700 | 89.5 | 7.7 | 39.100 | 220 |
| Reynaldo Lopez | White Sox | 0.350 | -0.042 | 0.350 | -0.081 | 0.338 | -0.003 | -0.300 | 87.8 | 7.1 | 32.700 | 266 |
| Ross Stripling | Dodgers | 0.237 | 0.029 | 0.236 | 0.022 | 0.212 | 0.042 | -0.700 | 85.6 | 3.7 | 27.700 | 191 |
| Steven Matz | Mets | 0.322 | 0.002 | 0.354 | 0.028 | 0.290 | 0.021 | 0.200 | 87.4 | 6.5 | 35.300 | 201 |
| Tyson Ross | Padres | 0.318 | -0.032 | 0.327 | -0.021 | 0.311 | 0.009 | -1.400 | 87.5 | 5.7 | 36.000 | 247 |
| Zack Godley | Diamondbacks | 0.362 | -0.028 | 0.327 | -0.009 | 0.348 | -0.012 | -1.200 | 88.9 | 9.5 | 38.000 | 242 |
| Ryan Borucki | Blue Jays |
Chad Bettis has an 88 point difference (drop) in his xwOBA from his actual mark over the last 30 days.
Ross Stripling …wow! I keep waiting for the ride to end, but he just doesn’t stop.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top few. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
There are quite a few strong overall arms tonight, but value is going to be the thing we might struggle with. Pricing is quite tight.
Value Tier One
Ross Stripling (1t) probably belongs with the three or four guys who are priced significantly higher than him tonight. The results have been similar. That makes him my top value.
Value Tier Two
Luis Severino (1t) is really the easy one today. Yes, he’s expensive ($13.1K on DraftKings), but he’s an elite arm (23.8 K-BB% is tied for ninth best in baseball, though just third best on this board) in a high upside spot.
Value Tier Three
Corey Kluber (1t) is easily the most expensive pitcher on FanDuel, but has the company of a few others on DraftKings. He already had his one start with fewer than six innings this year and he’s facing an offense that has been below average in a negative run environment.
James Paxton (4) gets a break coming off two brutal matchups. What players can probably count on is a deeper outing. Seven innings or more perhaps? What they might expect too many of are strikeouts. What they may also not realize is the high rate of hard contact allowed. He may even be over-priced on DraftKings ($12.5K), but costs nearly $3K less on FanDuel, the largest price differential on the board by $400.
Chad Bettis has been terrible by results, but hasn’t been put in a spot to succeed. He’s probably not even an average big league starter, but that doesn’t mean there isn’t value here at a cost of $6K or less with one of the most positive park transitions a pitcher can have.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Zack Godley probably hasn’t done enough to earn his price tag tonight (though he’s been better recently), but the Marlins sure have.
Steven Matz still has some issues, but he might be a $7K pitcher in this spot and doesn’t cost that much. He’s keeping the ball on the ground and facing a struggling offense in a great park.
Blaine Hardy is inexpensive and has been reasonably decent, while facing an offense that hasn’t been that against LHP.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.