Advanced Stats - Pitching: Tuesday, May 15th
Tuesday night is one afternoon affair removed from a full slate and Gerrit Cole is on the mound, so that will be all. See everyone on Friday. Perhaps it’s not entirely that easy, but maybe it can be if you’d like it to. Let’s see what else we can dig up.
As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, ownership projections and the weather forecast as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. All of these things are available right here on the site.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB% L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Wood | Dodgers | -3.6 | 3.46 | 5.8 | 52.0% | 0.88 | 3.31 | 3.90 | Marlins | 84 | 94 | 95 |
| Andrew Cashner | Orioles | -7.3 | 5.15 | 5.5 | 46.7% | 0.99 | 5.42 | 5.14 | Phillies | 83 | 98 | 136 |
| Anthony Banda | Rays | -2.8 | 4.43 | 4.8 | 36.5% | 1.04 | 4.56 | Royals | 88 | 98 | 118 | |
| Daniel Mengden | Athletics | -1.8 | 4.42 | 5.5 | 39.2% | 1.10 | 3.90 | 3.89 | Red Sox | 116 | 116 | 93 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | Red Sox | 4.9 | 4.12 | 5.5 | 34.7% | 1.10 | 4.06 | 3.16 | Athletics | 108 | 101 | 99 |
| Francisco Liriano | Tigers | 4 | 4.78 | 5.2 | 48.1% | 1.07 | 4.19 | 5.04 | Indians | 74 | 107 | 131 |
| German Marquez | Rockies | -0.2 | 4.30 | 5.4 | 46.2% | 0.91 | 4.34 | 3.91 | Padres | 92 | 82 | 71 |
| Gerrit Cole | Astros | 7.4 | 3.76 | 6.1 | 44.1% | 0.93 | 3.56 | 1.75 | Angels | 99 | 110 | 106 |
| Gio Gonzalez | Nationals | -5 | 4.13 | 5.8 | 47.3% | 1.01 | 3.94 | 3.37 | Yankees | 88 | 105 | 120 |
| Ian Kennedy | Royals | -0.7 | 4.52 | 5.4 | 34.3% | 1.04 | 5.08 | 3.91 | Rays | 103 | 96 | 88 |
| Jack Flaherty | Cardinals | 1.2 | 4.44 | 4.3 | 48.9% | 1.05 | 3.84 | Twins | 85 | 90 | 70 | |
| Jaime Barria | Angels | 3.7 | 4.90 | 4.5 | 41.1% | 0.93 | 4.55 | 3.87 | Astros | 123 | 106 | 101 |
| Jaime Garcia | Blue Jays | -2.7 | 4.42 | 5.5 | 53.9% | 0.92 | 4.76 | 5.75 | Mets | 94 | 60 | 80 |
| Jhoulys Chacin | Brewers | 5.1 | 4.70 | 5.4 | 47.9% | 1.00 | 4.88 | 5.47 | Diamondbacks | 78 | 80 | 61 |
| Jordan Lyles | Padres | -6.6 | 4.45 | 4.3 | 48.6% | 0.91 | 4.47 | 3.81 | Rockies | 85 | 68 | 97 |
| Jose Berrios | Twins | -4 | 4.51 | 5.3 | 39.5% | 1.05 | 3.57 | 5.95 | Cardinals | 98 | 94 | 81 |
| Josh Tomlin | Indians | 11.8 | 4.33 | 5.6 | 40.4% | 1.07 | 4.72 | 5.73 | Tigers | 102 | 94 | 119 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | Yankees | 6.2 | 3.68 | 6.1 | 47.0% | 1.01 | 3.94 | 4.14 | Nationals | 97 | 106 | 85 |
| Mike Foltynewicz | Braves | 4.5 | 4.36 | 5.5 | 40.2% | 0.99 | 4.12 | 4.84 | Cubs | 98 | 106 | 149 |
| Mike Leake | Mariners | -3 | 4.11 | 5.9 | 52.8% | 0.92 | 4.07 | 4.52 | Rangers | 83 | 79 | 63 |
| Mike Minor | Rangers | 3.53 | 5.7 | 40.1% | 0.92 | 4.05 | 4.80 | Mariners | 96 | 118 | 119 | |
| Nick Pivetta | Phillies | -3.3 | 4.14 | 5.1 | 43.7% | 0.99 | 4.98 | 4.00 | Orioles | 101 | 85 | 159 |
| Noah Syndergaard | Mets | -1 | 3.02 | 5.6 | 50.0% | 0.92 | 2.46 | 5.05 | Blue Jays | 90 | 101 | 79 |
| Reynaldo Lopez | White Sox | -1.8 | 5.05 | 5.8 | 33.6% | 0.98 | 5.53 | 6.20 | Pirates | 124 | 102 | 152 |
| Trevor Williams | Pirates | -2.3 | 4.76 | 5.5 | 45.8% | 0.98 | 4.55 | 4.90 | White Sox | 101 | 102 | 99 |
| Ty Blach | Giants | -9.4 | 5.16 | 6.0 | 49.7% | 0.93 | 4.82 | 4.28 | Reds | 94 | 109 | 120 |
| Tyler Mahle | Reds | -3.8 | 4.52 | 5.3 | 42.6% | 0.93 | 5.48 | 5.49 | Giants | 112 | 99 | 110 |
| Wei-Yin Chen | Marlins | -5 | 4.58 | 5.2 | 36.8% | 0.88 | 4.85 | 7.91 | Dodgers | 99 | 84 | 75 |
| Yu Darvish | Cubs | 14.7 | 3.55 | 5.9 | 40.4% | 0.99 | 3.48 | 3.52 | Braves | 103 | 106 | 108 |
| Zack Greinke | Diamondbacks | 8.4 | 3.63 | 6.2 | 45.9% | 1.00 | 3.24 | 2.94 | Brewers | 93 | 94 | 114 |
Alex Wood has struck out more than five just twice this season and has not eclipsed six innings since his first start, but has the same 18+ K-BB% he’s had for three of the previous four years. In fact, his 18.7% mark this year is the highest. His 50.4 GB% is just above his career mark as well. His velocity is not up. In fact, it remains where it was late last year, well down from earlier in 2017. He’s throwing fewer sinkers than he ever has (42%) with more changeups (30%). There’s some discrepancy in the third pitch. Fangraphs calls it a brand new slider. Statcast thinks it’s the same curve he’s been throwing all along. A .270 xwOBA is second best on the board, due to a third best 86.9 mph aEV. The matchup may not be the top one on the board, the Marlins haven’t always been the cakewalk we anticipated this season and are tied for a split high 11.3 BB% against LHP, but it’s a very favorable one. He walks very few batters himself (4.4%).
Anthony Banda has started seven games in AAA this season. He’s struck out exactly eight (four times) or four (three times) in all of them with the latter in each of his last two starts. In 25.2 innings with Arizona last season, he generated a 21.7 K%, almost exactly what he’d done in about 200 AAA innings previously. He’s a decently regarded prospect with a 50 Future Value grade on his Fangraphs page and has had at least a 21 K% at every stop above Rookie ball since 2014. His AAA ERAs in the Arizona system are inflated by a difficult environment and have corrected for the Rays. The matchup with the Royals is fairly neutral, but they have struck out more (23.5%) against LHP.
Eduardo Rodriguez has the second highest strikeout rate (29.8%) on the board, including eight of 19 Yankees in a bounce back start after allowing five runs in consecutive starts. He’s only surpassed six innings once despite exceeding 100 pitches in more than half his starts due to a 10.1 BB%. His .285 xwOBA is fourth best on the board, though his low rate of barrels per batted ball (6.5%) does not correlate well with an 89.8 mph aEV. Something may give there. Facing Oakland in such a hitter friendly park is not a good spot at all, but their biggest weakness (6.4 BB% vs LHP) could get him a bit deeper in this game. Another factor in his favor is a career reverse split against a lineup that will likely come at him almost entirely right-handed.
Gerrit Cole has a double digit lead in K% today and more than three points in SwStr%. His .245 xwOBA is lowest on the board by 25 points with average contact management. The Angels have a 19.7 K% vs RHP, so that limits expectations to somewhere around 30%? An interesting and strange thing (considering the number of sliders he throws), he’s struck out 49% of LHBs and “just” 34.6% of RHBs.
Gio Gonzalez is one of several pitchers today striking out around a quarter of batters he’s faced and “Oh NO, he’s facing the Yankees! Stay away!” But wait a second. He’s been good by non-FIP estimators and great if you believe he can sustain the 2.7 HR/FB (he can’t). However, he probably also can’t sustain a .325 BABIP with the strength of his current profile. His .287 xwOBA is a top five mark. Enough about him though, the chief considerations here are that the Yankees have been good, not great against LHP. They do have a 10.9 BB% (particularly concerning against him) and 17.6 HR/FB against them, but the power drops with a rise in strikeouts on the road. He can get some swings and misses here and the other key thing is that they lose the DH tonight. That’s probably going to be Brett Gardner in this situation, but it’s still better to face a pitcher a couple of times perhaps.
Jack Flaherty has made two spot starts (one great, one poor) for the Cardinals about a month apart and gets another one a few weeks later. There were raves about his slider in the second half of last season in his short cup of coffee with the big league club. He’s struck out 32.5% of batters faced at AAA this year and appears to be in a decent spot in Minnesota. It’s not a negative run environment and the home team has some pop against right-handers, but the performance has been very ordinary at best so far. The one caveat being the underlying peripherals are better than their wRC+ marks.
Masahiro Tanaka has the same home run issues as last season (eight in eight starts). Strikeouts are down (more than five just once in his last six starts), but he’s faced Boston twice, Houston and LA (AL) in that span and the swinging strike rate remains encouraging. He’s got an almost exactly league average xwOBA (.315) the contact authority (aEV, Barrels, 95+ EV) are all fairly decent. The problem is that he’s in another tough spot tonight (Nationals 8.5 K-BB% vs RHP).
Mike Leake has allowed the hardest contact on the board. He’s the only pitcher above 50% 95+ mph EV (53%) and his .434 xwOBA is somehow second because Josh Tomlin. What the hell is he doing up here? All that being said, he’s struck out six or seven with just one walk in three of his last five starts (19% sliders in two of them) and does have a double digit SwStr% over the last month with an increased ground ball rate over that span as well. He also has one of the top park adjusted matchups on the board. The Rangers have some power (18.2 HR/FB on the road, 15.3 HR/FB vs RHP). Use Joey Gallo tonight and maybe Nomar Mazara. However, they also have a split high 27.2 K% vs RHP and 22.4 K-BB% on the road.
Mike Minor has pitched outside Texas twice this season and those outings were in Toronto and Houston. He hasn’t caught a break, but may be a nearly league average pitcher if he does. He doesn’t get much of one tonight, as the Mariners rough up LHP (118 wRC+) and have just an 18.5 K% against them, but at least he gets a favorable park tonight.
Nick Pivetta had a 24 K% with an 8.7 SwStr%. He’s getting dangerously close to that again with his two lowest swinging strike marks of the season in his last two outings (Washington, San Francisco) now giving him a 25.6 K% and 9.9 SwStr%. He also allowed a wOBA above .400 to RHBs last season. That’s down to .252 with a 28.9 K-BB% and 0.0 Hard-Soft% this season. He’s actually throwing 50% more curveballs against them (14 to 21%), which is considered a reverse platoon pitch, but if it works, it works. The Orioles are the hottest offense in baseball (14.9 K%, 23.5 HR/FB last seven days), but they still have a 16.9 K-BB% vs RHP this year.
Noah Syndergaard has lost some velocity and confidence in his fastball over his last few starts. He walked for batters for just the fourth time in his career last start. He still throws more than 97 miles per hour with a slider, changeup and curve that all get whiffs one-third of the time or more according to Statcast. He’s facing a team with a 24.4 K% vs RHP without a DH tonight in a favorable park. His swinging strike rate has actually increased overall in the last month. His .278 xwOBA is actually third best on the board.
Zack Greinke has been fine, which is really the only way to put it. He’s still missing bats and his velocity has even crept up above 90 mph for the first time this season in his last two starts. His hard hit rate has been above 40% in five straight starts though and six of eight this year. He desperately needs that humidor to stay competitive at home less he turns into poor man’s Robbie Ray. But that is what’s happening and he’s in a decent spot with some upside against the Brewers (24.6 K% vs RHP).
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is usually extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm.
League AVG (.287 BABIP – 72.8 LOB% – 13.4 HR/FB)
Jaime Barria (.255 – 84.1% – 5.3) more than doubled his season strikeout total in his last start in Colorado of all places. He has had an 8.5 SwStr% in every start and it has increased in each start. His 3.6% Barrels/BBE is lowest on the board despite a 25 LD% or perhaps that’s where the hard contact is going instead. There may be something to him, but there’s more danger than upside in his matchup with the Astros tonight.
Jhoulys Chacin (.275 – 73.3% – 9.6) has a 13% unearned run rate and one of the top matchups on the board (if you consider Arizona a neutral or negative run environment as it has played this season), but really can’t be trusted to do anything with it at this point. He hasn’t exceeded five strikeouts in a start yet for the Brewers.
Trevor Williams (.223 – 80.9% – 10) has the second lowest aEV (85.5 mph) on the board, but just doesn’t miss enough bats. He’s struck out eight over his last three starts since a season high seven. The White Sox haven’t been as bad as people assumed they would be offensively.
Reynaldo Lopez (.202 – 82.6% – 9.4) seems to have gotten his walks under control recently (15 in first four starts, four in last three), but his strikeouts are all over the place. He did pitch into the eighth inning and whiff six in his last start against this same Pittsburgh team, but they’ve been otherwise really tough at home (7.6 K-BB%) and vs RHP (19.8 K%) and have a 17 HR/FB over the last week.
Francisco Liriano (.226 – 75.9% – 7.7)
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Jose Berrios hung two more curveballs in his last start, which landed beyond the outfield wall. It’s the third time in four starts he’s allowed two HRs in a start. Three of the last four HRs have come on the curveball, two of the six on changeups and one on a fastball, all right down the pipe. Four of the six home runs have been surrendered to right-handed batters, whom he’d previously been dominating. Despite all this his 84.7 mph aEV is still tops on the board and his 25.2% 95+ mph EV is the only mark below 31%. He’s struck out just four over his last three starts, but did have a double digit SwStr% in one of those starts. What does all this mean? I’m not sure. I figure he’ll get it figured out, but perhaps he’s lost his confidence in his curveball (he’s been throwing it a bit less in recent starts) due to lack of command for the short term. He doesn’t miss enough bats to continue riding through this rough streak, especially if he’s going to have issues with right-handed batters now, but he is just $7.5K right now. It’s a tough decision.
Yu Darvish has struck out eight in back to back starts, but has an above average SwStr% in just two starts this year and allowed three HRs to the Rockies at Wrigley last time out as well (winds may or may not have been a factor). In fact, he has two starts of six innings and one run, both against Milwaukee. He hasn’t completed five innings or allowed fewer than four runs in any of the other four. His velocity is fine, but his Barrels/BBE is way up (10.6%). His four seam and cutter whiff rates are down more than 10 percentage points according to Statcast and he’s facing a tough lineup in Atlanta, one that gave Syndergaard’s 97-98 mph heater fits recently. He is down below $8K though with a slider that’s still getting 33% whiffs.
Jaime Garcia has walked 13 of his last 91 batters, has the highest Z-Contact rate (92.6%) on the board and his aEV and 95+ mph EV is second worst to just Mike Leake. That said, he could have the top park adjusted matchup on the board against a team that has been terrible against LHP (26.8 K%, 4.3 HR/FB) and the right-handed power portion of their lineup either pretty banged up (Cespedes) or incapacitated (Frazier). He’s been bad enough that it still doesn’t get him there for less than $6K, but nearly close enough.
Tyler Mahle can miss some bats, but loves a mediocre fastball (67.5%, 93.5 mph) that has led to multiple HRs in half his starts this year. He may not surrender one in San Francisco, but $9K on DraftKings?
Daniel Mengden is a below average pitcher by his Statcast numbers, more average by his ERA estimators. He’s probably in the worst park adjusted spot on the board at Fenway, but may still be too cheap at $4.7K on DraftKings if one should need to go that low due to rostering Cole. It’s still not something I’d enthusiastically advocate though.
Mike Foltynewicz has the second highest K/SwStr on the board (that’s not good). He has a significant platoon split and faces a lineup with enough dangerous left-handed bats to give him trouble. The Cubs are also one of the hottest offenses in the league (3.7 K-BB% last seven days) and haven’t even been striking out that much this year (20.2 K% vs RHP).
Ty Blach is a cheap contact manager in a great park, who has only exceeded six innings once and four strikeouts not a single time this year.
Ian Kennedy throws his four seamer 57.2% of the time and often up in the zone. His park allows for that and it may help him against a vastly improved team against elevated fastballs, but it’s a more dangerous spot than numbers suggest without a lot of upside.
Andrew Cashner might make you think for a second if you believe a 20.1 K%, which I don’t (6.9 SwStr%). There’s that and a 12.1% Barrels/BBE that puts his xwOBA above .400 (one of three today). Also, his defense is terrible.
Wei-Yin Chen
Josh Tomlin has pulled off a .477 xwOBA (13.5% Barrels/BBE). Find some Detroit bats tonight.
Peripherals (Pitcher)
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Wood | Dodgers | L2 Yrs | 25.3% | 5.9% | 11.5% | 10.4% | Season | 23.1% | 4.4% | 7.5% | 19.0% | Road | 25.4% | 6.0% | 10.3% | 16.4% | L14Days | 28.6% | 11.9% | 12.5% | 28.0% |
| Andrew Cashner | Orioles | L2 Yrs | 15.7% | 9.8% | 12.3% | 16.0% | Season | 20.1% | 10.6% | 17.9% | 16.0% | Home | 13.5% | 9.4% | 12.6% | 12.7% | L14Days | 16.0% | 10.0% | 23.1% | 5.4% |
| Anthony Banda | Rays | L2 Yrs | 21.7% | 8.7% | 3.3% | 27.3% | Season | Road | 27.0% | 16.2% | -5.0% | L14Days | |||||||||
| Daniel Mengden | Athletics | L2 Yrs | 19.3% | 6.8% | 10.7% | 13.9% | Season | 17.7% | 2.7% | 9.4% | 24.8% | Road | 19.0% | 2.2% | 10.3% | 6.4% | L14Days | 20.0% | 2.2% | 17.6% | 34.3% |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | Red Sox | L2 Yrs | 24.8% | 8.9% | 11.8% | 9.6% | Season | 29.8% | 10.1% | 14.3% | 12.9% | Home | 28.8% | 10.6% | 10.1% | 7.3% | L14Days | 37.5% | 12.5% | 18.8% | 23.3% |
| Francisco Liriano | Tigers | L2 Yrs | 20.7% | 11.8% | 13.9% | 14.0% | Season | 18.1% | 12.5% | 7.7% | 10.0% | Home | 23.1% | 10.5% | 6.7% | 14.1% | L14Days | 18.6% | 14.0% | ||
| German Marquez | Rockies | L2 Yrs | 20.4% | 7.5% | 15.0% | 15.6% | Season | 20.9% | 10.4% | 11.8% | 10.6% | Road | 20.7% | 8.3% | 10.5% | 14.4% | L14Days | 21.2% | 5.8% | 18.2% | 10.8% |
| Gerrit Cole | Astros | L2 Yrs | 24.5% | 6.4% | 12.3% | 7.5% | Season | 41.4% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 17.6% | Road | 27.2% | 7.0% | 15.7% | 10.5% | L14Days | 47.2% | 7.6% | 12.5% | |
| Gio Gonzalez | Nationals | L2 Yrs | 23.3% | 9.0% | 11.6% | 10.9% | Season | 25.9% | 9.8% | 2.7% | 13.8% | Home | 24.4% | 9.8% | 10.5% | 7.2% | L14Days | 28.9% | 11.1% | -7.4% | |
| Ian Kennedy | Royals | L2 Yrs | 21.2% | 8.4% | 14.6% | 24.8% | Season | 21.3% | 7.1% | 14.0% | 22.1% | Home | 20.6% | 9.8% | 15.9% | 31.2% | L14Days | 23.9% | 6.5% | 23.1% | 28.2% |
| Jack Flaherty | Cardinals | L2 Yrs | 23.0% | 11.1% | 18.5% | 23.9% | Season | 26.8% | 12.2% | 12.5% | 44.0% | Road | 25.0% | 12.0% | 18.8% | 31.1% | L14Days | ||||
| Jaime Barria | Angels | L2 Yrs | 16.7% | 9.0% | 5.3% | 10.8% | Season | 16.7% | 9.0% | 5.3% | 10.8% | Home | 8.3% | 8.3% | 26.7% | L14Days | 19.6% | 6.5% | 24.2% | ||
| Jaime Garcia | Blue Jays | L2 Yrs | 19.1% | 8.9% | 18.3% | 14.0% | Season | 22.2% | 11.4% | 19.0% | 26.5% | Road | 17.1% | 11.3% | 14.0% | 14.9% | L14Days | 16.3% | 14.0% | 7.1% | 10.4% |
| Jhoulys Chacin | Brewers | L2 Yrs | 18.5% | 9.5% | 10.5% | 12.1% | Season | 14.6% | 10.6% | 9.6% | 25.8% | Road | 17.2% | 9.9% | 14.9% | 15.4% | L14Days | 15.6% | 10.9% | 5.3% | 37.0% |
| Jordan Lyles | Padres | L2 Yrs | 16.4% | 7.7% | 15.6% | 18.3% | Season | 22.0% | 8.0% | 10.0% | 18.8% | Home | 18.4% | 6.4% | 15.5% | 14.0% | L14Days | 24.0% | 4.0% | 11.1% | 22.2% |
| Jose Berrios | Twins | L2 Yrs | 20.5% | 8.3% | 11.1% | 7.4% | Season | 21.4% | 4.8% | 14.9% | Home | 26.1% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 0.9% | L14Days | 8.0% | 6.0% | 21.1% | 7.3% | |
| Josh Tomlin | Indians | L2 Yrs | 16.8% | 2.9% | 17.7% | 19.5% | Season | 11.0% | 4.7% | 25.5% | 28.8% | Road | 16.1% | 2.6% | 14.6% | 24.1% | L14Days | 12.5% | 6.3% | 25.0% | 20.0% |
| Masahiro Tanaka | Yankees | L2 Yrs | 23.3% | 5.1% | 16.7% | 14.2% | Season | 23.7% | 5.3% | 16.7% | 15.2% | Road | 23.0% | 6.2% | 21.4% | 13.6% | L14Days | 16.7% | 4.2% | 20.0% | 21.6% |
| Mike Foltynewicz | Braves | L2 Yrs | 21.4% | 8.2% | 11.5% | 11.9% | Season | 26.0% | 10.5% | 9.8% | 19.5% | Home | 23.2% | 8.7% | 9.1% | 15.2% | L14Days | 16.7% | 8.3% | 22.2% | |
| Mike Leake | Mariners | L2 Yrs | 16.7% | 4.7% | 13.3% | 15.1% | Season | 16.0% | 8.0% | 13.0% | 25.8% | Home | 17.0% | 4.9% | 14.6% | 16.8% | L14Days | 19.2% | 9.6% | 9.1% | 8.1% |
| Mike Minor | Rangers | L2 Yrs | 25.3% | 6.5% | 8.5% | 12.2% | Season | 19.1% | 5.4% | 11.8% | 23.8% | Road | 24.0% | 8.4% | 2.3% | 9.2% | L14Days | 14.3% | 5.4% | 25.0% | 15.9% |
| Nick Pivetta | Phillies | L2 Yrs | 24.3% | 9.0% | 16.5% | 16.9% | Season | 25.6% | 6.1% | 10.3% | 7.3% | Road | 19.5% | 11.7% | 14.1% | 19.6% | L14Days | 26.7% | 10.0% | 22.2% | 15.8% |
| Noah Syndergaard | Mets | L2 Yrs | 28.5% | 5.3% | 7.7% | 6.9% | Season | 27.6% | 5.1% | 10.8% | 2.3% | Home | 31.2% | 4.0% | 8.8% | 7.2% | L14Days | 14.3% | 8.9% | 7.7% | 9.7% |
| Reynaldo Lopez | White Sox | L2 Yrs | 17.5% | 9.3% | 9.0% | 8.6% | Season | 17.0% | 10.4% | 9.4% | 7.7% | Road | 16.9% | 7.8% | 9.1% | 14.9% | L14Days | 10.9% | 7.3% | 12.5% | |
| Trevor Williams | Pirates | L2 Yrs | 17.7% | 8.7% | 11.3% | 7.1% | Season | 15.8% | 10.9% | 10.0% | 5.2% | Home | 17.5% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 8.9% | L14Days | 13.6% | 6.8% | 36.4% | 17.1% |
| Ty Blach | Giants | L2 Yrs | 11.2% | 6.6% | 9.3% | 13.7% | Season | 11.8% | 7.6% | 9.1% | 19.9% | Home | 11.9% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 11.5% | L14Days | 9.8% | 2.0% | 9.1% | 33.4% |
| Tyler Mahle | Reds | L2 Yrs | 20.9% | 9.4% | 13.2% | 14.8% | Season | 23.7% | 8.1% | 18.8% | 21.4% | Road | 15.9% | 11.0% | 7.0% | 13.7% | L14Days | 12.8% | 8.5% | 12.5% | |
| Wei-Yin Chen | Marlins | L2 Yrs | 17.8% | 6.0% | 15.3% | 17.1% | Season | 10.0% | 13.3% | 25.0% | 28.9% | Home | 20.8% | 8.3% | 13.6% | 16.0% | L14Days | 7.9% | 15.8% | 27.8% | 24.2% |
| Yu Darvish | Cubs | L2 Yrs | 28.6% | 7.9% | 14.6% | 10.7% | Season | 26.4% | 11.4% | 20.0% | 9.4% | Road | 28.1% | 8.1% | 12.0% | 9.1% | L14Days | 33.3% | 12.5% | 75.0% | 30.8% |
| Zack Greinke | Diamondbacks | L2 Yrs | 24.8% | 5.5% | 13.8% | 15.7% | Season | 27.2% | 3.1% | 14.0% | 24.6% | Home | 28.8% | 4.8% | 12.3% | 23.9% | L14Days | 28.8% | 4.1% | 5.6% | 35.4% |
Peripherals (Opponent)
| OpTm | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marlins | Home | 21.0% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 10.9% | LH | 20.3% | 11.3% | 9.4% | 9.0% | L7Days | 21.6% | 8.6% | 14.9% | 8.5% |
| Phillies | Road | 26.0% | 10.9% | 8.6% | 10.5% | RH | 26.6% | 10.4% | 12.4% | 10.8% | L7Days | 21.0% | 12.9% | 17.4% | 14.9% |
| Royals | Home | 18.0% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 22.2% | LH | 23.5% | 7.4% | 9.7% | 15.8% | L7Days | 15.9% | 6.9% | 14.5% | 21.1% |
| Red Sox | Home | 18.2% | 8.1% | 11.1% | 17.3% | RH | 18.7% | 8.0% | 14.2% | 20.5% | L7Days | 24.9% | 6.1% | 16.1% | 12.2% |
| Athletics | Road | 24.3% | 7.7% | 18.0% | 24.2% | LH | 23.5% | 6.4% | 9.7% | 25.7% | L7Days | 21.8% | 9.8% | 14.5% | 16.4% |
| Indians | Road | 25.8% | 7.0% | 13.8% | 16.8% | LH | 19.8% | 8.3% | 13.3% | 24.4% | L7Days | 21.0% | 9.9% | 18.1% | 35.6% |
| Padres | Home | 25.6% | 9.5% | 11.1% | 19.1% | RH | 27.0% | 8.9% | 9.9% | 15.8% | L7Days | 23.2% | 9.7% | 4.3% | 16.6% |
| Angels | Home | 21.2% | 9.3% | 13.2% | 21.2% | RH | 19.7% | 7.9% | 13.1% | 19.7% | L7Days | 18.5% | 11.1% | 13.3% | 23.6% |
| Yankees | Road | 25.9% | 8.3% | 11.9% | 11.0% | LH | 23.7% | 10.9% | 17.6% | 15.1% | L7Days | 19.4% | 13.6% | 15.3% | 24.2% |
| Rays | Road | 21.7% | 8.1% | 10.6% | 10.9% | RH | 21.8% | 8.4% | 9.1% | 15.5% | L7Days | 20.8% | 7.3% | 5.0% | 11.4% |
| Twins | Home | 22.4% | 9.3% | 8.5% | 16.7% | RH | 22.1% | 9.4% | 11.3% | 20.5% | L7Days | 23.2% | 7.5% | 9.1% | 21.0% |
| Astros | Road | 20.5% | 10.4% | 9.6% | 17.7% | RH | 21.6% | 10.3% | 10.9% | 14.0% | L7Days | 19.1% | 7.4% | 12.9% | 21.5% |
| Mets | Home | 23.8% | 9.8% | 8.1% | 11.6% | LH | 26.8% | 10.7% | 4.3% | 11.7% | L7Days | 23.3% | 7.5% | 13.3% | 0.0% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 26.0% | 9.7% | 8.7% | 21.5% | RH | 25.3% | 10.4% | 10.5% | 15.8% | L7Days | 25.9% | 6.9% | 9.8% | 18.1% |
| Rockies | Road | 23.8% | 9.1% | 16.9% | 11.0% | RH | 24.3% | 8.8% | 15.5% | 6.3% | L7Days | 24.3% | 8.2% | 19.2% | 12.4% |
| Cardinals | Road | 24.4% | 9.6% | 18.6% | 16.0% | RH | 23.3% | 9.3% | 14.7% | 18.6% | L7Days | 24.1% | 7.7% | 20.0% | 17.6% |
| Tigers | Home | 17.6% | 7.2% | 9.6% | 26.6% | RH | 20.5% | 6.9% | 8.8% | 22.5% | L7Days | 19.6% | 6.5% | 16.4% | 27.2% |
| Nationals | Home | 21.4% | 11.6% | 15.7% | 11.4% | RH | 19.8% | 11.3% | 15.8% | 15.0% | L7Days | 20.9% | 6.2% | 13.7% | 31.3% |
| Cubs | Road | 21.7% | 8.4% | 11.3% | 15.2% | RH | 20.2% | 8.7% | 12.1% | 9.4% | L7Days | 16.5% | 12.8% | 17.2% | 11.3% |
| Rangers | Road | 28.0% | 5.6% | 18.2% | 20.2% | RH | 27.2% | 7.6% | 15.3% | 23.3% | L7Days | 33.3% | 6.3% | 17.2% | 12.6% |
| Mariners | Home | 23.0% | 6.8% | 14.2% | 6.3% | LH | 18.5% | 8.5% | 9.9% | 14.9% | L7Days | 17.9% | 9.5% | 12.7% | 24.0% |
| Orioles | Home | 19.9% | 8.2% | 14.4% | 12.5% | RH | 24.1% | 7.2% | 12.8% | 13.7% | L7Days | 14.9% | 7.4% | 23.5% | 19.7% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 22.8% | 10.2% | 14.1% | 20.4% | RH | 24.4% | 9.7% | 16.1% | 18.8% | L7Days | 30.1% | 8.2% | 10.6% | 8.9% |
| Pirates | Home | 18.2% | 10.6% | 10.3% | 6.6% | RH | 19.8% | 8.5% | 10.2% | 9.2% | L7Days | 22.4% | 9.2% | 17.0% | 7.6% |
| White Sox | Road | 23.5% | 7.8% | 16.7% | 23.3% | RH | 23.7% | 7.5% | 13.6% | 13.1% | L7Days | 24.2% | 9.1% | 13.3% | 16.9% |
| Reds | Road | 19.4% | 8.4% | 8.7% | 15.1% | LH | 20.8% | 11.3% | 12.1% | 20.5% | L7Days | 18.0% | 6.8% | 15.4% | 14.1% |
| Giants | Home | 22.4% | 8.9% | 12.1% | 24.2% | RH | 24.9% | 7.1% | 10.7% | 21.6% | L7Days | 28.9% | 7.0% | 13.6% | 27.9% |
| Dodgers | Road | 20.3% | 10.6% | 9.1% | 16.5% | LH | 22.2% | 9.7% | 7.0% | 16.5% | L7Days | 24.0% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 12.4% |
| Braves | Home | 19.7% | 8.7% | 9.8% | 17.3% | RH | 20.4% | 9.2% | 11.9% | 15.2% | L7Days | 20.8% | 10.4% | 20.3% | 29.5% |
| Brewers | Road | 20.8% | 7.8% | 13.7% | 12.7% | RH | 24.6% | 8.3% | 15.6% | 15.0% | L7Days | 25.1% | 8.0% | 20.0% | 22.5% |
K/SwStr Chart (2018 LG AVG – 21.8 K% – 10.1 SwStr% – 2.16 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Wood | Dodgers | 23.1% | 11.7% | 1.97 | 24.1% | 12.1% | 1.99 |
| Andrew Cashner | Orioles | 20.1% | 6.9% | 2.91 | 18.8% | 6.4% | 2.94 |
| Anthony Banda | Rays | ||||||
| Daniel Mengden | Athletics | 17.7% | 8.7% | 2.03 | 18.3% | 8.8% | 2.08 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | Red Sox | 29.8% | 12.7% | 2.35 | 27.6% | 12.7% | 2.17 |
| Francisco Liriano | Tigers | 18.1% | 9.5% | 1.91 | 19.6% | 10.7% | 1.83 |
| German Marquez | Rockies | 20.9% | 9.1% | 2.30 | 23.0% | 9.1% | 2.53 |
| Gerrit Cole | Astros | 41.4% | 16.3% | 2.54 | 38.2% | 15.6% | 2.45 |
| Gio Gonzalez | Nationals | 25.9% | 10.2% | 2.54 | 24.8% | 9.9% | 2.51 |
| Ian Kennedy | Royals | 21.3% | 8.3% | 2.57 | 20.7% | 8.8% | 2.35 |
| Jack Flaherty | Cardinals | 26.8% | 11.6% | 2.31 | 10.0% | 7.3% | 1.37 |
| Jaime Barria | Angels | 16.7% | 10.9% | 1.53 | 17.2% | 11.6% | 1.48 |
| Jaime Garcia | Blue Jays | 22.2% | 8.9% | 2.49 | 20.4% | 9.0% | 2.27 |
| Jhoulys Chacin | Brewers | 14.6% | 7.9% | 1.85 | 16.7% | 8.5% | 1.96 |
| Jordan Lyles | Padres | 22.0% | 10.0% | 2.20 | 19.1% | 9.1% | 2.10 |
| Jose Berrios | Twins | 21.4% | 10.3% | 2.08 | 14.3% | 10.1% | 1.42 |
| Josh Tomlin | Indians | 11.0% | 9.3% | 1.18 | 11.5% | 7.8% | 1.47 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | Yankees | 23.7% | 13.6% | 1.74 | 22.3% | 13.8% | 1.62 |
| Mike Foltynewicz | Braves | 26.0% | 9.2% | 2.83 | 25.4% | 10.0% | 2.54 |
| Mike Leake | Mariners | 16.0% | 8.6% | 1.86 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.89 |
| Mike Minor | Rangers | 19.1% | 10.7% | 1.79 | 15.8% | 9.8% | 1.61 |
| Nick Pivetta | Phillies | 25.6% | 9.9% | 2.59 | 23.2% | 8.9% | 2.61 |
| Noah Syndergaard | Mets | 27.6% | 14.4% | 1.92 | 24.8% | 14.7% | 1.69 |
| Reynaldo Lopez | White Sox | 17.0% | 9.3% | 1.83 | 14.9% | 7.8% | 1.91 |
| Trevor Williams | Pirates | 15.8% | 7.0% | 2.26 | 16.5% | 8.2% | 2.01 |
| Ty Blach | Giants | 11.8% | 6.2% | 1.90 | 13.0% | 7.3% | 1.78 |
| Tyler Mahle | Reds | 23.7% | 10.4% | 2.28 | 25.4% | 11.5% | 2.21 |
| Wei-Yin Chen | Marlins | 10.0% | 6.0% | 1.67 | 10.0% | 6.0% | 1.67 |
| Yu Darvish | Cubs | 26.4% | 9.4% | 2.81 | 28.2% | 9.2% | 3.07 |
| Zack Greinke | Diamondbacks | 27.2% | 12.8% | 2.13 | 26.0% | 11.2% | 2.32 |
There are about as many above an 11 SwStr% as there were yesterday in half the games.
Masahiro Tanaka dropped below a 10.8 SwStr% for the first time in his last start. It was 9.9%. He’s faced a lot of contact prone offenses.
ERA Estimators Chart (2018 LG AVG – 4.22 ERA – 4.20 SIERA – 4.17 xFIP – 4.29 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | Season DRA | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Wood | Dodgers | 3.60 | 3.46 | -0.14 | 3.60 | -0.33 | 2.68 | -0.92 | 1.97 | -1.63 | 2.63 | 3.73 | 1.10 | 3.49 | 0.86 | 3.00 | 0.37 |
| Andrew Cashner | Orioles | 4.84 | 4.75 | -0.09 | 4.84 | 0.05 | 5.74 | 0.90 | 6.91 | 2.07 | 6.41 | 4.84 | -1.57 | 4.78 | -1.63 | 5.73 | -0.68 |
| Anthony Banda | Rays | ||||||||||||||||
| Daniel Mengden | Athletics | 4.06 | 4.13 | 0.07 | 4.06 | -0.10 | 3.46 | -0.60 | 4.04 | -0.02 | 2.86 | 4.04 | 1.18 | 3.95 | 1.09 | 3.82 | 0.96 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | Red Sox | 4.58 | 3.59 | -0.99 | 4.58 | -0.66 | 4.17 | -0.41 | 2.67 | -1.91 | 4.88 | 3.84 | -1.04 | 4.19 | -0.69 | 4.70 | -0.18 |
| Francisco Liriano | Tigers | 3.35 | 5.15 | 1.80 | 3.35 | 1.58 | 4.31 | 0.96 | 5.58 | 2.23 | 3.90 | 4.99 | 1.09 | 4.71 | 0.81 | 4.34 | 0.44 |
| German Marquez | Rockies | 5.35 | 4.48 | -0.87 | 5.35 | -1.02 | 4.23 | -1.12 | 3.82 | -1.53 | 5.54 | 3.87 | -1.67 | 3.65 | -1.89 | 3.76 | -1.78 |
| Gerrit Cole | Astros | 1.43 | 2.03 | 0.60 | 1.43 | 0.82 | 1.54 | 0.11 | 1.15 | -0.28 | 1.51 | 2.34 | 0.83 | 2.53 | 1.02 | 1.10 | -0.41 |
| Gio Gonzalez | Nationals | 2.22 | 3.79 | 1.57 | 2.22 | 1.33 | 2.48 | 0.26 | 2.23 | 0.01 | 2.22 | 3.75 | 1.53 | 3.52 | 1.30 | 2.30 | 0.08 |
| Ian Kennedy | Royals | 4.61 | 4.23 | -0.38 | 4.61 | -0.41 | 4.42 | -0.19 | 5.81 | 1.20 | 7.43 | 4.40 | -3.03 | 4.54 | -2.89 | 5.71 | -1.72 |
| Jack Flaherty | Cardinals | 3.60 | 4.06 | 0.46 | 3.60 | 0.16 | 3.75 | 0.15 | 3.42 | -0.18 | 5.40 | 7.44 | 2.04 | 6.72 | 1.32 | 7.35 | 1.95 |
| Jaime Barria | Angels | 2.45 | 4.90 | 2.45 | 2.45 | 2.45 | 3.91 | 1.46 | 5.51 | 3.06 | 2.70 | 4.31 | 1.61 | 4 | 1.30 | 2.77 | 0.07 |
| Jaime Garcia | Blue Jays | 5.40 | 4.60 | -0.80 | 5.40 | -0.48 | 5.92 | 0.52 | 6.39 | 0.99 | 6.46 | 4.96 | -1.50 | 5.38 | -1.08 | 6.53 | 0.07 |
| Jhoulys Chacin | Brewers | 4.00 | 5.40 | 1.40 | 4.00 | 1.29 | 4.84 | 0.84 | 6.47 | 2.47 | 2.87 | 5.31 | 2.44 | 5.38 | 2.51 | 4.01 | 1.14 |
| Jordan Lyles | Padres | 3.28 | 3.94 | 0.66 | 3.28 | 1.18 | 4.04 | 0.76 | 6.09 | 2.81 | 4.11 | 4.29 | 0.18 | 4.49 | 0.38 | 4.26 | 0.15 |
| Jose Berrios | Twins | 4.50 | 3.86 | -0.64 | 4.50 | -0.63 | 4.17 | -0.33 | 4.61 | 0.11 | 6.39 | 4.98 | -1.41 | 4.95 | -1.44 | 6.15 | -0.24 |
| Josh Tomlin | Indians | 8.06 | 5.69 | -2.37 | 8.06 | -1.69 | 9.69 | 1.63 | 10.37 | 2.31 | 7.64 | 5.54 | -2.10 | 6.12 | -1.52 | 9.49 | 1.85 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | Yankees | 4.66 | 3.64 | -1.02 | 4.66 | -0.91 | 4.29 | -0.37 | 4.44 | -0.22 | 4.34 | 3.80 | -0.54 | 3.78 | -0.56 | 4.22 | -0.12 |
| Mike Foltynewicz | Braves | 3.21 | 4.04 | 0.83 | 3.21 | 0.73 | 3.58 | 0.37 | 4.77 | 1.56 | 3.38 | 4.35 | 0.97 | 4.09 | 0.71 | 3.52 | 0.14 |
| Mike Leake | Mariners | 5.72 | 4.86 | -0.86 | 5.72 | -0.91 | 4.86 | -0.86 | 5.57 | -0.15 | 7.16 | 4.13 | -3.03 | 4.06 | -3.10 | 4.16 | -3.00 |
| Mike Minor | Rangers | 4.73 | 4.30 | -0.43 | 4.73 | -0.04 | 4.55 | -0.18 | 6.01 | 1.28 | 5.52 | 4.43 | -1.09 | 4.55 | -0.97 | 4.92 | -0.60 |
| Nick Pivetta | Phillies | 4.15 | 3.53 | -0.62 | 4.15 | -0.59 | 3.25 | -0.90 | 2.88 | -1.27 | 5.24 | 4.05 | -1.19 | 4.28 | -0.96 | 4.63 | -0.61 |
| Noah Syndergaard | Mets | 3.09 | 3.10 | 0.01 | 3.09 | -0.12 | 2.78 | -0.31 | 2.11 | -0.98 | 2.64 | 3.41 | 0.77 | 3.34 | 0.70 | 2.69 | 0.05 |
| Reynaldo Lopez | White Sox | 2.44 | 5.33 | 2.89 | 2.44 | 3.10 | 4.93 | 2.49 | 7.62 | 5.18 | 3.16 | 5.51 | 2.35 | 5.83 | 2.67 | 5.29 | 2.13 |
| Trevor Williams | Pirates | 3.13 | 5.33 | 2.20 | 3.13 | 1.85 | 4.60 | 1.47 | 6.14 | 3.01 | 4.08 | 5.33 | 1.25 | 5.02 | 0.94 | 5.00 | 0.92 |
| Ty Blach | Giants | 4.20 | 4.62 | 0.42 | 4.20 | 0.01 | 3.90 | -0.30 | 4.97 | 0.77 | 4.03 | 4.27 | 0.24 | 3.96 | -0.07 | 4.11 | 0.08 |
| Tyler Mahle | Reds | 3.86 | 4.01 | 0.15 | 3.86 | 0.16 | 4.88 | 1.02 | 4.51 | 0.65 | 2.86 | 4.07 | 1.21 | 3.98 | 1.12 | 4.59 | 1.73 |
| Wei-Yin Chen | Marlins | 10.22 | 6.84 | -3.38 | 10.22 | -2.66 | 10.69 | 0.47 | 9.35 | -0.87 | 10.22 | 6.85 | -3.37 | 7.56 | -2.66 | 10.69 | 0.47 |
| Yu Darvish | Cubs | 6.00 | 4.11 | -1.89 | 6.00 | -1.88 | 5.08 | -0.92 | 5.01 | -0.99 | 6.00 | 4.11 | -1.89 | 4.03 | -1.97 | 4.88 | -1.12 |
| Zack Greinke | Diamondbacks | 3.70 | 3.05 | -0.65 | 3.70 | -0.55 | 3.33 | -0.37 | 1.41 | -2.29 | 2.84 | 3.22 | 0.38 | 3.3 | 0.46 | 2.93 | 0.09 |
Eduardo Rodriguez has the second most favorable gap between his ERA and DRA. The metric absolutely loves him for some reason.
Masahiro Tanaka has a 16.7 HR/FB. He is home run prone, partially due to his home park. Those contact prone teams he’s faced recently also have significant power. He’s not in his home park tonight and wasn’t for three of those four difficult starts (he was at home against a Minnesota with some left-handed power too though). The Nationals have a 15.8 HR/FB against RHP. It’s another tough spot. The good news is his 65.4 LOB% should work itself out.
BABIP & Statcast Chart (2018 LG AVG – .287 BABIP – 43.1 GB% – 21.1 LD% – 10.1 IFFB% – 86.1 Z-Contact% – 36.5 Z-O-Swing%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | GB% | LD% | IFFB% | Z-contact% | Z-O-Swing% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Wood | Dodgers | 0.302 | 0.264 | -0.038 | 50.4% | 18.6% | 5.0% | 88.5% | 33.6% |
| Andrew Cashner | Orioles | 0.323 | 0.283 | -0.040 | 38.8% | 19.4% | 8.9% | 90.1% | 38.3% |
| Anthony Banda | Rays | 0.285 | |||||||
| Daniel Mengden | Athletics | 0.294 | 0.285 | -0.009 | 38.8% | 25.2% | 17.0% | 87.6% | 35.8% |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | Red Sox | 0.295 | 0.264 | -0.031 | 44.1% | 10.8% | 2.4% | 81.8% | 39.6% |
| Francisco Liriano | Tigers | 0.288 | 0.226 | -0.062 | 47.7% | 16.5% | 7.7% | 82.6% | 38.4% |
| German Marquez | Rockies | 0.298 | 0.356 | 0.058 | 45.0% | 26.7% | 8.8% | 89.0% | 40.9% |
| Gerrit Cole | Astros | 0.261 | 0.257 | -0.004 | 30.2% | 24.5% | 18.8% | 75.3% | 33.2% |
| Gio Gonzalez | Nationals | 0.278 | 0.325 | 0.047 | 52.4% | 17.7% | 2.7% | 83.9% | 31.0% |
| Ian Kennedy | Royals | 0.306 | 0.331 | 0.025 | 31.8% | 29.5% | 16.0% | 87.2% | 35.4% |
| Jack Flaherty | Cardinals | 0.288 | 0.375 | 0.087 | 52.0% | 16.0% | 0.0% | 79.3% | 49.0% |
| Jaime Barria | Angels | 0.297 | 0.255 | -0.042 | 41.1% | 25.0% | 21.1% | 83.3% | 34.2% |
| Jaime Garcia | Blue Jays | 0.310 | 0.309 | -0.001 | 42.0% | 16.0% | 7.1% | 92.6% | 37.0% |
| Jhoulys Chacin | Brewers | 0.271 | 0.275 | 0.004 | 42.0% | 21.7% | 9.6% | 92.0% | 35.7% |
| Jordan Lyles | Padres | 0.313 | 0.242 | -0.071 | 37.7% | 18.8% | 0.0% | 84.6% | 35.8% |
| Jose Berrios | Twins | 0.296 | 0.250 | -0.046 | 41.7% | 22.7% | 14.9% | 86.8% | 34.8% |
| Josh Tomlin | Indians | 0.272 | 0.297 | 0.025 | 25.0% | 26.0% | 9.8% | 88.8% | 44.7% |
| Masahiro Tanaka | Yankees | 0.288 | 0.266 | -0.022 | 43.8% | 19.2% | 12.5% | 84.5% | 30.7% |
| Mike Foltynewicz | Braves | 0.291 | 0.291 | 0.000 | 38.4% | 25.0% | 9.8% | 84.1% | 36.1% |
| Mike Leake | Mariners | 0.305 | 0.319 | 0.014 | 42.4% | 21.9% | 5.6% | 91.0% | 29.8% |
| Mike Minor | Rangers | 0.306 | 0.284 | -0.022 | 36.4% | 21.5% | 15.7% | 84.0% | 43.4% |
| Nick Pivetta | Phillies | 0.288 | 0.330 | 0.042 | 43.4% | 19.8% | 12.8% | 86.1% | 36.7% |
| Noah Syndergaard | Mets | 0.295 | 0.336 | 0.041 | 46.5% | 24.8% | 8.1% | 84.6% | 32.5% |
| Reynaldo Lopez | White Sox | 0.300 | 0.202 | -0.098 | 30.0% | 20.8% | 15.6% | 85.3% | 48.9% |
| Trevor Williams | Pirates | 0.298 | 0.223 | -0.075 | 38.2% | 23.7% | 14.0% | 89.3% | 39.8% |
| Ty Blach | Giants | 0.293 | 0.304 | 0.011 | 57.6% | 22.4% | 6.1% | 91.2% | 39.1% |
| Tyler Mahle | Reds | 0.288 | 0.274 | -0.014 | 37.7% | 23.0% | 6.3% | 81.9% | 38.2% |
| Wei-Yin Chen | Marlins | 0.300 | 0.256 | -0.044 | 30.2% | 14.0% | 4.2% | 88.7% | 41.9% |
| Yu Darvish | Cubs | 0.268 | 0.316 | 0.048 | 38.3% | 24.7% | 10.0% | 84.6% | 36.5% |
| Zack Greinke | Diamondbacks | 0.272 | 0.291 | 0.019 | 43.3% | 19.4% | 14.0% | 83.7% | 26.6% |
Eduardo Rodriguez won’t sustain a 10.8 LD%, but that’s certainly the reason for a low BABIP.
Gerrit Cole has a low BABIP despite a 24.5 LD%, but his 75.3 Z-Contact% is obscene and the BABIP matches his defense.
Gio Gonzalez and Zack Greinke are the only two pitchers to combine elite Z-Contact and Z-O-Swing rates. One of those might be a surprise.
Noah Syndergaard has a .336 BABIP with a 24.8 LD%, but just a 3.9% Barrels/BBE. His hard contact is at a lower launch angle. He’s only been below a .330 BABIP once, in his rookie year, though a lot of that seems to be bad luck and a poor defense. Even league average is a significant upgrade for the guys behind him, though the defense is down a top glove in Frazier at third.
StatCast Chart
All stats from BaseballSavant.com.
| Player | Team | xwOBA | wOBA-xwOBA | xwOBA H/A | wOBA-xwOBA H/A | xwOBA L30 Days | wOBA-xwOBA L30 Days | Effective Velocity | Exit Velocity | Barrels BBE | 95+ MPH ExV | BBE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Wood | Dodgers | 0.270 | -0.021 | 0.278 | -0.024 | 0.308 | -0.047 | -0.400 | 86.9 | 4.5 | 31.800 | 132 |
| Andrew Cashner | Orioles | 0.401 | -0.045 | 0.353 | -0.024 | 0.399 | -0.018 | -1.800 | 89.4 | 12.4 | 40.100 | 137 |
| Anthony Banda | Rays | 0.224 | 0.003 | |||||||||
| Daniel Mengden | Athletics | 0.357 | -0.058 | 0.321 | -0.040 | 0.364 | -0.078 | 0.000 | 90.1 | 7.4 | 36.900 | 149 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | Red Sox | 0.285 | 0.006 | 0.310 | 0.024 | 0.303 | -0.018 | -0.900 | 89.8 | 6.5 | 34.400 | 93 |
| Francisco Liriano | Tigers | 0.377 | -0.093 | 0.319 | -0.024 | 0.338 | -0.038 | -0.500 | 87.6 | 9.2 | 32.100 | 109 |
| German Marquez | Rockies | 0.324 | 0.029 | 0.315 | 0.014 | 0.328 | 0.032 | -1.700 | 88.2 | 4.1 | 37.700 | 122 |
| Gerrit Cole | Astros | 0.245 | -0.038 | 0.316 | -0.014 | 0.248 | -0.047 | -0.600 | 88.3 | 5.6 | 41.700 | 108 |
| Gio Gonzalez | Nationals | 0.287 | -0.003 | 0.302 | -0.014 | 0.267 | 0.006 | -1.100 | 87.3 | 4.8 | 31.500 | 124 |
| Ian Kennedy | Royals | 0.386 | -0.043 | 0.390 | -0.035 | 0.408 | -0.003 | 0.000 | 90.4 | 13.0 | 43.500 | 131 |
| Jack Flaherty | Cardinals | 0.345 | -0.011 | 0.335 | 0.028 | 0.397 | -0.028 | 0.800 | 92.6 | 4.0 | 44.000 | 25 |
| Jaime Barria | Angels | 0.335 | -0.062 | 0.375 | -0.098 | 0.366 | -0.082 | -1.200 | 87.7 | 3.6 | 32.100 | 56 |
| Jaime Garcia | Blue Jays | 0.360 | 0.023 | 0.334 | 0.005 | 0.361 | 0.041 | -0.700 | 91.3 | 11.8 | 46.100 | 102 |
| Jhoulys Chacin | Brewers | 0.354 | -0.029 | 0.347 | 0.017 | 0.346 | -0.064 | -1.500 | 89.2 | 6.1 | 41.500 | 147 |
| Jordan Lyles | Padres | 0.306 | -0.033 | 0.309 | 0.019 | 0.355 | -0.054 | 0.600 | 88 | 5.8 | 31.900 | 69 |
| Jose Berrios | Twins | 0.302 | -0.014 | 0.262 | -0.018 | 0.352 | 0.006 | -0.700 | 84.7 | 6.7 | 25.200 | 135 |
| Josh Tomlin | Indians | 0.477 | -0.020 | 0.378 | -0.035 | 0.467 | -0.012 | -1.400 | 90.5 | 13.5 | 43.300 | 104 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | Yankees | 0.315 | -0.015 | 0.323 | 0.025 | 0.309 | -0.016 | -1.300 | 87.5 | 6.1 | 33.300 | 132 |
| Mike Foltynewicz | Braves | 0.322 | -0.024 | 0.341 | -0.010 | 0.319 | -0.031 | -0.500 | 88.8 | 8.0 | 34.500 | 113 |
| Mike Leake | Mariners | 0.434 | -0.072 | 0.339 | -0.016 | 0.403 | -0.008 | -2.000 | 92.8 | 11.3 | 53.000 | 151 |
| Mike Minor | Rangers | 0.353 | -0.008 | 0.271 | -0.013 | 0.356 | 0.014 | -1.000 | 88.8 | 10.7 | 39.300 | 122 |
| Nick Pivetta | Phillies | 0.341 | -0.036 | 0.362 | 0.016 | 0.367 | -0.024 | 0.100 | 87.4 | 10.0 | 32.700 | 110 |
| Noah Syndergaard | Mets | 0.278 | 0.018 | 0.254 | 0.030 | 0.281 | 0.012 | -0.200 | 87.4 | 3.9 | 31.800 | 129 |
| Reynaldo Lopez | White Sox | 0.372 | -0.092 | 0.334 | 0.002 | 0.369 | -0.060 | -0.500 | 88.7 | 8.5 | 33.800 | 130 |
| Trevor Williams | Pirates | 0.351 | -0.062 | 0.321 | -0.026 | 0.361 | -0.066 | 0.500 | 85.5 | 7.4 | 31.900 | 135 |
| Ty Blach | Giants | 0.345 | -0.033 | 0.339 | -0.035 | 0.347 | -0.045 | -2.400 | 87.5 | 4.7 | 37.400 | 171 |
| Tyler Mahle | Reds | 0.347 | -0.022 | 0.359 | -0.032 | 0.306 | -0.012 | -0.200 | 88.9 | 11.1 | 44.400 | 126 |
| Wei-Yin Chen | Marlins | 0.393 | 0.111 | 0.284 | 0.034 | 0.393 | 0.111 | -0.700 | 88.4 | 8.9 | 40.000 | 45 |
| Yu Darvish | Cubs | 0.365 | -0.011 | 0.288 | -0.021 | 0.382 | -0.032 | -0.300 | 87 | 10.6 | 32.900 | 85 |
| Zack Greinke | Diamondbacks | 0.313 | -0.025 | 0.293 | -0.032 | 0.280 | -0.015 | -0.900 | 89 | 9.7 | 35.100 | 134 |
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top few. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
A lot of the guys listed below, especially third or fourth tier guys may not work out tonight, but some of them are guys that are decent pitchers, but have struggled in tough spots and may be underpriced because of that. It’s tough when we’re looking for them to do something on one particular night in which they may or may not, but I believe them to be solid long run plays at their current price even if they don’t break out tonight. There’s a clear top of the board for overall arms, but the value gaps feel very small.
Value Tier One
Alex Wood (3t) may have some concerns about his workload at his current cost, but look at the Main table again. Very few pitchers have averaged more innings per start than him over the last two calendar years. He may not often get past the sixth, but he’ll usually get there. That should be enough to do some quality work against the Marlins in Miami. Perhaps he drops down to the pack for $10K on DraftKings, but he’s at the head of the pack for $8.6K on FanDuel.
Value Tier Two
Gerrit Cole (1) is getting to a point where he has to throw seven nearly shutout innings with double digit strikeouts to cover his cost. He can still do that here, but the Angels could be more of a challenge than some recent opponents. His eight against them (seven innings, two runs) last time was his second lowest mark of the season.
Noah Syndergaard (2) has struggled a bit in recent starts against Colorado and Atlanta, both at home, but dominated the Cardinals in St Louis the start before that because you can’t predict baseball on a day to day basis. He’s had a couple extra days rest here and is in a high upside spot in a park he has a career 25.2 K-BB% in. He now costs less than $11K on either site. I may even be a bit gun shy in not pushing him to the top of this tier.
Value Tier Three
Zack Greinke (3t) drops down a tier and maybe even that’s questionable at $11.8K on DraftKings. He has a board high $2.3K discrepancy in cost between sites and may even bump up a tier on FanDuel. There’s some concern with the hard contact he continues to allow, but he keeps missing bats at a high rate and is in a decent spot with some upside tonight.
Eduardo Rodriguez (5) is not in a good spot, but probably only Cole profiles for a higher strikeout rate tonight. While that’s probably a far higher strikeout rate, he’s $4K cheaper and just $7.8K on FanDuel. We’d really like to see him throw some innings tonight, which he hasn’t always done. Oakland will be swinging and is a favorable matchup in that aspect, but not in many others.
Anthony Banda is a very cheap pitcher with some talent and ability to miss bats in a fairly neutral spot. One concern is Kansas City’s tendency to make contact, although not as much against lefties. Another would be that he just completed six innings for the first time at AAA this year in his last start, but he has faced at least 22 batters in each of his last five, which maybe gets him through six.
Jack Flaherty is a talented arm at a cheap price, on FanDuel at least. DraftKings seems to have more of a line on him at $1.5K more expensive, where he probably drops down a tier. While he’s regularly gone six innings or more at AAA, he’s never exceeded five innings in a major league start, which doesn’t make much sense. It’s the same stress on the arm in either league.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Mike Leake has a shot in a great spot tonight. It’s not only a great run prevention spot, it’s the top strikeout spot on the board. He’s been missing more bats recently too. I’d boldly expect anywhere from six to eight from him tonight. Of course, the low price is the most important factor.
Masahiro Tanaka has run into some trouble in a string of very difficult starts. It doesn’t get much better here, but both his ERA and strikeout rate have some upside and he’s probably got some value in him for less than $8.5K here. I might look for the lowest projected ownership on a Washington bat with power (he has no platoon split), but think he covers his cost here more often than not, though it could go bad a good chunk of the time too.
Nick Pivetta is in a dangerous spot against a powerful and surging Baltimore offense, but it’s not without upside at just above $7K for a pitcher who has made massive improvements against same-handed hitters this season.
Gio Gonzalez (6) will probably give up his second home run of the season tonight, but he’s been pitching very well and is at a reduced price (below $9K) in a tough, but perhaps not completely unsolvable matchup in this spot.
Mike Minor is not a terrible pitcher and comes at a low cost tonight. He also gets a pitcher’s park for the first time this season even if it’s still not a favorable spot. He should probably cost just a bit more.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.