Advanced Stats - Pitching: Tuesday, May 16th
Thirty pitchers are listed, but two games are off the main slate, so only 13 games are covered in the notes. I’m hoping to finish up the league wide BABIP discussion started a week ago by tomorrow, but wanted to ask readers another question today.
I’ve been frequently citing Baseball-Reference’s metrics for team offense against GB/FB and Power/Finesse pitchers (well, more the power, less the finesse), but have yet to be able to add them to the board yet. The feeling is that doing so without removing anything might create too much clutter. I’m trying to avoid scroll bars. So the question is: which stats in this article do users find the least useful? What, if anything, would you not mind seeing eliminated? (And no, you can’t say the crappy analysis.)
Last night was a prime example of why the next paragraph exists. Zack Wheeler became more attractive once an Arizona lineup without Peralta and only one legitimate LHB was posted and Luis Perdomo jumped out to a healthy lead once the Brewers released a lineup without Thames and Shaw.
As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, ownership projections and Kevin’s weather report as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. And all of which are now available right here on the site.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB% L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Triggs | OAK | -6.5 | 3.5 | 5.08 | 53.3% | 0.89 | 3.27 | 3.78 | SEA | 130 | 116 | 118 |
| Bronson Arroyo | CIN | 19.9 | 4.8 | 5.16 | 34.7% | 0.96 | 6.21 | 4.77 | CHC | 86 | 83 | 56 |
| CC Sabathia | NYY | 3.1 | 4.35 | 5.78 | 48.1% | 1.06 | 4.72 | 5.01 | KAN | 81 | 59 | 123 |
| Chad Kuhl | PIT | -5.5 | 4.61 | 4.82 | 42.9% | 0.97 | 6.1 | 4.18 | WAS | 112 | 114 | 113 |
| Chase De Jong | SEA | 6.7 | 6.27 | 4.4 | 29.4% | 0.89 | 4.24 | 5.86 | OAK | 90 | 103 | 116 |
| Clayton Richard | SDG | -8.2 | 4.04 | 5.9 | 62.4% | 0.91 | 3.78 | 4.97 | MIL | 101 | 118 | 145 |
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | -2.8 | 3.21 | 6.78 | 59.6% | 0.94 | 3.64 | 2.42 | MIA | 87 | 118 | 96 |
| Danny Salazar | CLE | -9.2 | 3.73 | 5.71 | 44.7% | 1.09 | 3.64 | 3.43 | TAM | 96 | 113 | 130 |
| Derek Holland | CHW | -5.3 | 4.82 | 5.64 | 38.6% | 0.91 | 5.45 | 4.8 | ANA | 108 | 93 | 99 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | BOS | 4.2 | 4.19 | 5.6 | 37.8% | 0.98 | 4.27 | 3 | STL | 100 | 84 | 112 |
| Jaime Garcia | ATL | 4.7 | 3.89 | 5.9 | 57.4% | 1.03 | 4.41 | 5.43 | TOR | 86 | 95 | 115 |
| Jake Odorizzi | TAM | 3.3 | 4.11 | 5.67 | 36.3% | 1.09 | 4.49 | 3.51 | CLE | 110 | 104 | 108 |
| Jason Hammel | KAN | 5.6 | 4.02 | 5.33 | 39.5% | 1.06 | 4.06 | 4.04 | NYY | 108 | 128 | 104 |
| JC Ramirez | ANA | -7.6 | 4.04 | 5.87 | 48.7% | 0.91 | 4.07 | 4.85 | CHW | 74 | 73 | 90 |
| Jerad Eickhoff | PHI | 11.2 | 4.03 | 6. | 39.9% | 1.11 | 4.33 | 5.39 | TEX | 96 | 101 | 127 |
| Jimmy Nelson | MIL | -5.1 | 4.57 | 5.68 | 49.6% | 0.91 | 4.95 | 3.66 | SDG | 78 | 86 | 88 |
| John Lackey | CHC | 3.7 | 3.75 | 6.5 | 43.9% | 0.96 | 3.89 | 2.67 | CIN | 101 | 99 | 68 |
| Kyle Freeland | COL | 2.4 | 4.34 | 5.71 | 65.9% | 1.04 | 4.77 | 4.2 | MIN | 103 | 85 | 91 |
| Lance Lynn | STL | -10.9 | 4.27 | 5.58 | 45.6% | 0.98 | 4.11 | 4.48 | BOS | 122 | 105 | 101 |
| Marco Estrada | TOR | -2.4 | 4.39 | 6.11 | 33.0% | 1.03 | 4.52 | 3.59 | ATL | 93 | 92 | 92 |
| Matt Boyd | DET | 5.1 | 4.62 | 5.06 | 37.3% | 0.98 | 5.01 | 4.73 | BAL | 104 | 90 | 120 |
| Phil Hughes | MIN | 9.5 | 4.74 | 5.64 | 35.4% | 1.04 | 4.68 | 5.29 | COL | 76 | 73 | 78 |
| Rich Hill | LOS | 0.2 | 3.19 | 5.66 | 45.8% | 0.93 | 3.01 | SFO | 74 | 79 | 85 | |
| Stephen Strasburg | WAS | -5.8 | 2.97 | 6.09 | 42.4% | 0.97 | 3.13 | 4.01 | PIT | 92 | 76 | 45 |
| Tom Koehler | MIA | 3.9 | 4.76 | 5.58 | 0.442 | 0.94 | 4.58 | 4.68 | HOU | 116 | 125 | 123 |
| Tommy Milone | NYM | -3.6 | 4.3 | 5.23 | 0.428 | 1.13 | 4.47 | 4.19 | ARI | 120 | 82 | 134 |
| Ty Blach | SFO | 1.6 | 5.29 | 5.5 | 0.493 | 0.93 | 4.28 | 5.78 | LOS | 93 | 87 | 126 |
| Wade Miley | BAL | -4.9 | 4.12 | 5.82 | 0.485 | 0.98 | 4 | 4.82 | DET | 108 | 92 | 72 |
| Yu Darvish | TEX | -0.6 | 3.35 | 6.08 | 0.399 | 1.11 | 3.52 | 4.13 | PHI | 87 | 98 | 128 |
| Zack Greinke | ARI | -7.6 | 3.53 | 6.53 | 0.468 | 1.13 | 4.01 | 2.02 | NYM | 118 | 95 | 117 |
Andrew Triggs has struck out more than five just once, but has had a SwStr above 12% in four of his seven starts with some excellence in his batted ball profile (56.6 GB%, 22.8 Hard%, 1.6% Barrels/BBE). He’s in it against the second best home offense in baseball and the fourth best against RHP, although their peripherals appear just average and the run environment is one of the most pitcher friendly in baseball. The Mariners also lose 20% of their overall offense vs ground ball pitchers with an 84 sOPS+ (Baseball-Reference) against them.
Dallas Keuchel has been dominating by missing the strike zone. He has a career high 11.1 SwStr% with a career low 37.2 Zone%. This is not a bad thing though, because he has just a 6.4 BB% and batters are pounding everything into the ground (64.4 GB%, -6.5 Hard-Soft%). Both McCann and Gattis appear quality framers as well, which helps him be more effective. In fact, I’d venture to say framing might mean more to him than almost any other pitcher. The Marlins have a couple of big ‘ole lefty-mashers in the middle of that lineup (20.0 HR/FB), but getting the ball off the ground is the real trick. Five of his six HRs have been surrendered to RHBs, but he still has a 62.5 GB% against them. They have a 94 sOPS+ vs GB pitchers.
Eduardo Rodriguez has the top SwStr% and K% on the main slate and would be fifth best in baseball if he qualified. The walk rate is down to 10.6% with a total of three over his last three starts. He’s pitched exactly six inning in each of his last four after not making it that far in either of his first two. This fly ball pitcher with just a 3.6 Hard% and 84.8 mph aEV transitions to a great early season park for fly ball pitchers, one of the most power suppressing parks in the majors in St Louis against an offense that has struggled against RHP for the last several seasons (23.5 K%, 7.6 HR/FB). The downside is that the Cardinals have a 109 sOPS+ against fly ball pitchers and 111 sOPS+ against power pitchers.
JC Ramirez caught a beating from the Tigers in his last start (five ERs, two HRs). It’s quite a miracle he lasted seven innings and posted a positive game score in that one. He’s struck out just six of his last 56 batters after 25 of his previous 66 with his SwStr rate dropping to 4.2% (yikes!). Velocity appears down a bit in his last couple of starts as well. While we may be at the end of our journey with him, we can’t jump off the bandwagon just yet because he faces the White Sox (17.0 K-BB%, 25.5 Hard% vs RHP) at home tonight.
John Lackey is coming off seven shutout innings in Colorado and struck out 10 batters for the second time this season. He’s the pitcher I projected as most likely for regression on the staff, as the only one of the main four with a hard hit rate above the league average. That’s again the case this year (32.3%) with velocity down a bit (as are other Cubs’ pitchers), but aside from the eight HRs allowed so far (19.0 HR/FB), the peripherals have been fantastic. His 19.2 K-BB% is a career high, as was last year’s 17.0%. You might remember that he had a 17.9 K-BB% over the first half last season before dropping to 15.4% in the second half. I might expect the same to happen again this year to the 38 year-old pitcher, but we don’t have to worry about that yet and he faces an ice cold Cincinnati offense (2.0 HR/FB over the last week).
Stephen Strasburg has ridden near the edge of an acceptable K/SwStr for years before this year succumbing to a perfectly league average 2.15 rate so far. While there’s nothing wrong with that, it would give him more very good rather than elite upside. He has struck out at least eight in four of seven starts, but a total of 10 in the other three. Everything else seems about standard for him, though he’s replaced a few sliders with curves and changes, potentially to preserve health. He’s in one of the top spots on the board tonight in Pittsburgh. The Pirates don’t strike out a lot, but hit for little power in a big park. They add just an 86 sOPS+ with a 23.7 K% vs power pitchers.
Wade Miley has a SwStr above 9% for only the second time in his career with his highest strikeout rate, but also an enormous walk rate (14.7%). All these walks are not going to allow him to go very deep in games and the contact is not ideal (48.9 GB%, 33.7 Hard%), but he’s only hit Barrels on 4.5% of BBEs. Meanwhile, despite being almost entirely right-handed, the Tigers have struggled with LHP in recent years (23.9 K%). Hard contact rate (39.4%) remains high though.
Yu Darvish has his highest walk rate (10.2%) since his rookie year (2012) with the lowest strikeout rate (25.4%) since he entered the country. That’s still led to a productive, somewhat non-elite 15.1 K-BB%, though his hard hit rate is also the highest of his career (34.8%). He’s in a marginal spot, as the Phillies come to town. The offense, improved over previous seasons, should not yet be considered good, but they do have just a 5.9 K-BB% over the last week.
Zack Greinke continues to excel with reduced velocity with a career high 24.0 K-BB%. The contact he does allow has been a problem though (35.0 Hard%), in a terrible park, which turns the Mets into a difficult matchup. The strikeout rate is less than league average (19.0% vs RHP).
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.288 BABIP – 73.4 LOB% – 13.3 HR/FB)
Kyle Freeland (.272 – 74.6% – 4.3) may play well in Colorado with that elite ground ball rate, but does little for us DFS-wise with the 15.1 K%, even outside of Coors. The low HR rate won’t continue, though the Twins have just a 6.5 HR/FB vs LHP with Sano and Dozier in the lineup. Minnesota is middle of the road against both ground ball and finesse pitchers.
Matt Boyd (.286 – 75.9 – 8.6) doesn’t really sit too far in extreme territory in any of the markers and has allowed just one unearned run, but he has a career 13.9 HR/FB and a career high 37.4 Hard% this year to go with a career worst 5.8 K-BB%. His ground ball rate is up to nearly league average though and the Orioles are a bit more vulnerable to LHP (24.6 K%).
Lance Lynn (.240 – 86.9% – 15.4) is more productive at home, but the Red Sox strike out just 17.4% of the time vs RHP.
Derek Holland (.217 – 67.3 – 10.5) has allowed a bunch of runs, it’s just that half of his 22 total runs have been unearned. The 38.3 Hard% is very much “no thank you”.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Clayton Richard is my cutoff tonight, but far below the pitchers I’d consider. I still love the 61.2 GB% and the Brewers (25.3 K%) could push him to an acceptable strikeout rate, but they also have a 21.4 HR/FB on the road and 22.4 HR/FB vs LHP. They are average against GB pitchers (94 sOPS+) and can run it out there pretty right-handed. RHBs have thumped Richard for a .400 wOBA so far this year and have all 10 of his HRs surrendered since the start of last season. I will admit to finding it curious the Brewers sat a few LHBs last night and could be slightly more interested if they run out a more balanced lineup tonight because LHBs have an 81.3 GB% against him.
Jimmy Nelson has some nearly identical numbers to the pitcher just above him in the charts, but is in a much better spot than Eickhoff. The most significant difference for him this year has been a much needed drop in his walk rate and fewer sinkers. The SwStr% is still below average and the overall profile is not enough for me to consider paying nearly $8K for him, even in this spot.
Chase De Jong
K/BB Chart
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Triggs | Athletics | L2 Years | 21.2% | 5.7% | Road | 23.2% | 4.4% | L14 Days | 18.4% | 8.2% |
| Bronson Arroyo | Reds | L2 Years | 16.0% | 7.1% | Road | 12.1% | 12.1% | L14 Days | 15.2% | 4.4% |
| CC Sabathia | Yankees | L2 Years | 18.8% | 8.2% | Road | 17.5% | 10.0% | L14 Days | 14.0% | 12.0% |
| Chad Kuhl | Pirates | L2 Years | 17.7% | 7.7% | Home | 13.5% | 14.0% | L14 Days | 18.8% | 6.3% |
| Chase De Jong | Mariners | L2 Years | 8.4% | 9.6% | Home | 13.6% | 0.0% | L14 Days | 8.7% | 6.5% |
| Clayton Richard | Padres | L2 Years | 13.8% | 8.1% | Home | 17.3% | 10.3% | L14 Days | 18.0% | 14.0% |
| Dallas Keuchel | Astros | L2 Years | 22.8% | 6.0% | Road | 20.8% | 8.1% | L14 Days | 25.9% | 5.6% |
| Danny Salazar | Indians | L2 Years | 26.2% | 9.4% | Home | 28.2% | 9.1% | L14 Days | 29.0% | 10.5% |
| Derek Holland | White Sox | L2 Years | 16.1% | 7.8% | Road | 15.2% | 8.7% | L14 Days | 19.6% | 9.8% |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | Red Sox | L2 Years | 21.4% | 8.2% | Road | 24.1% | 8.1% | L14 Days | 23.4% | 2.1% |
| Jaime Garcia | Braves | L2 Years | 19.1% | 7.5% | Road | 18.1% | 9.0% | L14 Days | 14.3% | 17.9% |
| Jake Odorizzi | Rays | L2 Years | 21.4% | 7.0% | Road | 20.5% | 6.2% | L14 Days | 24.2% | 4.6% |
| Jason Hammel | Royals | L2 Years | 22.1% | 7.4% | Home | 22.1% | 8.9% | L14 Days | 21.1% | 5.3% |
| JC Ramirez | Angels | L2 Years | 18.3% | 7.4% | Home | 19.1% | 7.4% | L14 Days | 10.7% | 5.4% |
| Jerad Eickhoff | Phillies | L2 Years | 21.1% | 6.0% | Road | 18.6% | 5.5% | L14 Days | 14.9% | 10.6% |
| Jimmy Nelson | Brewers | L2 Years | 18.2% | 9.7% | Road | 16.6% | 10.3% | L14 Days | 27.0% | 10.8% |
| John Lackey | Cubs | L2 Years | 22.7% | 6.3% | Home | 23.3% | 6.8% | L14 Days | 30.8% | 3.9% |
| Kyle Freeland | Rockies | L2 Years | 15.1% | 10.5% | Road | 12.9% | 11.4% | L14 Days | 19.6% | 11.8% |
| Lance Lynn | Cardinals | L2 Years | 20.5% | 9.4% | Home | 18.9% | 5.4% | L14 Days | 23.9% | 13.0% |
| Marco Estrada | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 21.2% | 8.2% | Home | 24.8% | 10.0% | L14 Days | 25.3% | 6.3% |
| Matt Boyd | Tigers | L2 Years | 18.4% | 8.1% | Home | 18.3% | 9.1% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 10.0% |
| Phil Hughes | Twins | L2 Years | 13.4% | 3.7% | Home | 15.5% | 4.2% | L14 Days | 12.0% | 8.0% |
| Rich Hill | Dodgers | L2 Years | 29.8% | 7.4% | Road | 32.2% | 6.7% | L14 Days | ||
| Stephen Strasburg | Nationals | L2 Years | 30.5% | 6.3% | Road | 30.0% | 8.9% | L14 Days | 26.4% | 11.3% |
| Tom Koehler | Marlins | L2 Years | 18.2% | 10.2% | Home | 19.7% | 10.0% | L14 Days | 17.8% | 8.9% |
| Tommy Milone | Mets | L2 Years | 17.0% | 5.9% | Road | 16.7% | 7.0% | L14 Days | 21.7% | 8.7% |
| Ty Blach | Giants | L2 Years | 9.5% | 7.3% | Home | 11.2% | 4.7% | L14 Days | 4.2% | 4.2% |
| Wade Miley | Orioles | L2 Years | 19.8% | 7.8% | Road | 19.1% | 8.0% | L14 Days | 17.9% | 14.3% |
| Yu Darvish | Rangers | L2 Years | 29.6% | 8.4% | Home | 28.2% | 8.3% | L14 Days | 20.8% | 7.6% |
| Zack Greinke | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 23.0% | 5.2% | Home | 21.0% | 6.6% | L14 Days | 34.6% | 1.9% |
K/BB Chart – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mariners | Home | 19.5% | 11.2% | RH | 20.9% | 9.4% | L7Days | 21.6% | 10.6% |
| Cubs | Home | 22.0% | 10.4% | RH | 22.2% | 8.9% | L7Days | 21.8% | 10.9% |
| Royals | Home | 19.3% | 7.6% | LH | 21.1% | 7.3% | L7Days | 20.7% | 7.9% |
| Nationals | Road | 20.8% | 10.3% | RH | 19.9% | 10.1% | L7Days | 18.4% | 10.0% |
| Athletics | Road | 22.2% | 9.1% | RH | 23.1% | 9.7% | L7Days | 18.4% | 11.7% |
| Brewers | Road | 23.7% | 7.5% | LH | 25.3% | 9.2% | L7Days | 22.5% | 8.0% |
| Marlins | Home | 20.5% | 8.0% | LH | 20.6% | 8.7% | L7Days | 17.1% | 9.0% |
| Rays | Road | 29.1% | 11.1% | RH | 25.9% | 9.5% | L7Days | 27.5% | 8.7% |
| Angels | Home | 18.6% | 7.9% | LH | 18.0% | 9.3% | L7Days | 21.0% | 8.7% |
| Cardinals | Home | 22.1% | 10.9% | LH | 23.5% | 9.1% | L7Days | 23.0% | 9.6% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 21.1% | 7.6% | LH | 23.7% | 10.6% | L7Days | 15.4% | 7.7% |
| Indians | Home | 20.3% | 11.0% | RH | 21.1% | 9.7% | L7Days | 15.4% | 11.8% |
| Yankees | Road | 20.6% | 10.2% | RH | 22.5% | 10.3% | L7Days | 31.4% | 9.8% |
| White Sox | Road | 21.4% | 5.9% | RH | 23.2% | 6.2% | L7Days | 19.6% | 9.8% |
| Rangers | Home | 22.1% | 9.1% | RH | 22.3% | 9.3% | L7Days | 16.4% | 11.0% |
| Padres | Home | 23.1% | 9.5% | RH | 25.5% | 7.4% | L7Days | 22.3% | 8.8% |
| Reds | Road | 18.0% | 8.2% | RH | 20.5% | 8.5% | L7Days | 18.5% | 8.3% |
| Twins | Home | 22.2% | 11.7% | LH | 20.2% | 10.2% | L7Days | 24.7% | 8.2% |
| Red Sox | Road | 16.6% | 10.3% | RH | 17.4% | 8.9% | L7Days | 22.1% | 12.1% |
| Braves | Road | 20.5% | 8.0% | RH | 20.0% | 9.0% | L7Days | 21.5% | 11.4% |
| Orioles | Road | 25.5% | 6.9% | LH | 24.6% | 8.1% | L7Days | 26.7% | 7.8% |
| Rockies | Road | 25.8% | 7.5% | RH | 22.7% | 7.4% | L7Days | 26.1% | 7.4% |
| Giants | Home | 18.5% | 6.7% | LH | 20.0% | 8.3% | L7Days | 16.5% | 6.5% |
| Pirates | Home | 19.7% | 9.9% | RH | 19.0% | 8.3% | L7Days | 22.7% | 6.9% |
| Astros | Road | 19.4% | 9.0% | RH | 18.4% | 8.0% | L7Days | 18.9% | 8.9% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 21.0% | 8.4% | LH | 23.3% | 8.1% | L7Days | 20.4% | 9.0% |
| Dodgers | Road | 22.7% | 10.7% | LH | 21.9% | 10.1% | L7Days | 23.6% | 9.8% |
| Tigers | Home | 21.4% | 9.8% | LH | 23.9% | 9.2% | L7Days | 26.1% | 9.5% |
| Phillies | Road | 24.8% | 8.5% | RH | 22.9% | 8.9% | L7Days | 17.8% | 11.9% |
| Mets | Road | 18.5% | 9.4% | RH | 19.0% | 9.3% | L7Days | 18.3% | 7.2% |
Batted Ball Chart
Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Triggs | Athletics | L2 Years | 25.2% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 2017 | 22.8% | 3.0% | 6.5% | Road | 25.2% | 12.1% | 3.9% | L14 Days | 19.4% | 0.0% | -2.8% |
| Bronson Arroyo | Reds | L2 Years | 35.8% | 17.6% | 18.3% | 2017 | 35.8% | 17.6% | 18.3% | Road | 28.0% | 18.2% | 4.0% | L14 Days | 46.0% | 17.6% | 19.0% |
| CC Sabathia | Yankees | L2 Years | 27.3% | 14.5% | 6.1% | 2017 | 35.7% | 16.2% | 13.2% | Road | 26.8% | 9.8% | 2.3% | L14 Days | 41.7% | 12.5% | 16.7% |
| Chad Kuhl | Pirates | L2 Years | 34.1% | 7.6% | 16.4% | 2017 | 36.4% | 5.1% | 23.3% | Home | 38.0% | 12.5% | 27.3% | L14 Days | 41.7% | 14.3% | 37.5% |
| Chase De Jong | Mariners | L2 Years | 29.4% | 12.5% | 10.3% | 2017 | 29.4% | 12.5% | 10.3% | Home | 31.6% | 12.5% | 10.5% | L14 Days | 28.2% | 12.5% | 5.1% |
| Clayton Richard | Padres | L2 Years | 26.8% | 14.8% | 6.8% | 2017 | 29.8% | 24.0% | 12.6% | Home | 29.0% | 8.0% | 9.0% | L14 Days | 32.4% | 16.7% | 8.9% |
| Dallas Keuchel | Astros | L2 Years | 25.2% | 16.6% | 1.4% | 2017 | 21.6% | 19.4% | -6.5% | Road | 29.3% | 21.3% | 8.8% | L14 Days | 19.4% | 40.0% | -11.2% |
| Danny Salazar | Indians | L2 Years | 30.8% | 12.2% | 15.2% | 2017 | 30.8% | 15.2% | 16.5% | Home | 33.5% | 13.8% | 20.9% | L14 Days | 52.2% | 40.0% | 43.5% |
| Derek Holland | White Sox | L2 Years | 34.1% | 11.9% | 17.9% | 2017 | 38.3% | 10.5% | 20.0% | Road | 33.7% | 10.8% | 14.2% | L14 Days | 28.6% | 15.8% | 0.0% |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | Red Sox | L2 Years | 29.2% | 10.9% | 8.5% | 2017 | 25.0% | 11.4% | 3.6% | Road | 27.7% | 7.8% | 6.0% | L14 Days | 11.8% | 0.0% | -17.6% |
| Jaime Garcia | Braves | L2 Years | 29.7% | 14.6% | 9.3% | 2017 | 31.6% | 11.8% | 5.3% | Road | 30.1% | 13.7% | 7.1% | L14 Days | 21.1% | 0.0% | 5.3% |
| Jake Odorizzi | Rays | L2 Years | 31.2% | 12.3% | 13.5% | 2017 | 29.9% | 17.1% | 13.8% | Road | 32.3% | 13.4% | 16.8% | L14 Days | 25.5% | 15.8% | 2.1% |
| Jason Hammel | Royals | L2 Years | 33.2% | 13.0% | 14.8% | 2017 | 33.9% | 8.3% | 15.6% | Home | 29.2% | 9.0% | 8.2% | L14 Days | 36.6% | 16.7% | 24.4% |
| JC Ramirez | Angels | L2 Years | 29.4% | 14.6% | 10.4% | 2017 | 32.5% | 12.8% | 15.4% | Home | 28.1% | 13.5% | 10.3% | L14 Days | 30.4% | 16.7% | 23.9% |
| Jerad Eickhoff | Phillies | L2 Years | 31.4% | 11.8% | 12.2% | 2017 | 29.0% | 9.1% | 15.3% | Road | 32.2% | 9.8% | 14.7% | L14 Days | 22.9% | 14.3% | 2.9% |
| Jimmy Nelson | Brewers | L2 Years | 31.4% | 12.6% | 11.6% | 2017 | 32.2% | 10.0% | 14.8% | Road | 32.0% | 13.1% | 12.3% | L14 Days | 34.8% | 0.0% | 4.4% |
| John Lackey | Cubs | L2 Years | 32.1% | 12.9% | 15.5% | 2017 | 32.3% | 19.0% | 16.2% | Home | 32.3% | 13.3% | 13.3% | L14 Days | 21.2% | 8.3% | 0.0% |
| Kyle Freeland | Rockies | L2 Years | 30.2% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 2017 | 30.2% | 4.3% | 4.0% | Road | 33.3% | 0.0% | 13.7% | L14 Days | 28.6% | 0.0% | -2.8% |
| Lance Lynn | Cardinals | L2 Years | 28.5% | 9.9% | 10.4% | 2017 | 33.6% | 15.4% | 17.2% | Home | 27.8% | 5.6% | 7.4% | L14 Days | 44.4% | 20.0% | 33.3% |
| Marco Estrada | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 29.2% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 2017 | 25.0% | 9.8% | 12.9% | Home | 29.2% | 9.6% | 10.4% | L14 Days | 13.2% | 12.5% | 0.0% |
| Matt Boyd | Tigers | L2 Years | 32.7% | 13.9% | 14.8% | 2017 | 37.4% | 8.9% | 18.7% | Home | 33.2% | 11.4% | 13.2% | L14 Days | 36.4% | 7.7% | 22.8% |
| Phil Hughes | Twins | L2 Years | 34.8% | 12.3% | 19.8% | 2017 | 41.5% | 10.0% | 27.4% | Home | 40.0% | 16.1% | 29.0% | L14 Days | 27.5% | 12.5% | 15.0% |
| Rich Hill | Dodgers | L2 Years | 27.5% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 2017 | 33.3% | 25.0% | 23.8% | Road | 25.9% | 3.8% | 2.1% | L14 Days | |||
| Stephen Strasburg | Nationals | L2 Years | 27.6% | 11.2% | 5.6% | 2017 | 29.0% | 7.0% | 5.3% | Road | 22.5% | 4.5% | -4.5% | L14 Days | 34.4% | 7.7% | 9.4% |
| Tom Koehler | Marlins | L2 Years | 32.2% | 12.3% | 14.6% | 2017 | 38.3% | 22.5% | 28.0% | Home | 33.2% | 15.6% | 14.8% | L14 Days | 40.0% | 16.7% | 33.3% |
| Tommy Milone | Mets | L2 Years | 28.8% | 15.7% | 8.3% | 2017 | 24.2% | 19.4% | -2.2% | Road | 33.0% | 19.6% | 11.0% | L14 Days | 12.5% | 16.7% | 6.2% |
| Ty Blach | Giants | L2 Years | 29.1% | 6.4% | 8.1% | 2017 | 28.7% | 6.3% | 9.9% | Home | 27.8% | 0.0% | 6.7% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 14.3% | 2.3% |
| Wade Miley | Orioles | L2 Years | 29.3% | 13.2% | 11.4% | 2017 | 33.7% | 12.0% | 15.7% | Road | 33.6% | 13.7% | 15.9% | L14 Days | 31.6% | 0.0% | 15.8% |
| Yu Darvish | Rangers | L2 Years | 31.7% | 13.2% | 11.3% | 2017 | 34.9% | 15.9% | 19.0% | Home | 36.0% | 14.3% | 18.2% | L14 Days | 31.6% | 25.0% | 10.5% |
| Zack Greinke | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 29.1% | 11.3% | 8.2% | 2017 | 35.0% | 14.0% | 12.4% | Home | 36.1% | 12.4% | 16.5% | L14 Days | 24.2% | 18.2% | -12.2% |
Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mariners | Home | 30.3% | 11.3% | 10.4% | RH | 30.6% | 11.9% | 12.9% | L7Days | 29.5% | 11.3% | 10.0% |
| Cubs | Home | 25.8% | 11.1% | 7.1% | RH | 28.4% | 10.5% | 11.2% | L7Days | 27.7% | 15.0% | 7.4% |
| Royals | Home | 32.0% | 8.9% | 11.8% | LH | 27.7% | 6.2% | 5.6% | L7Days | 37.5% | 13.1% | 21.4% |
| Nationals | Road | 30.4% | 15.5% | 12.8% | RH | 31.8% | 15.1% | 14.8% | L7Days | 32.2% | 17.3% | 7.7% |
| Athletics | Road | 36.1% | 10.8% | 17.6% | RH | 35.8% | 14.5% | 20.1% | L7Days | 33.1% | 15.2% | 16.2% |
| Brewers | Road | 29.9% | 21.0% | 12.4% | LH | 35.8% | 22.4% | 14.7% | L7Days | 40.4% | 19.4% | 19.7% |
| Marlins | Home | 33.0% | 14.7% | 13.1% | LH | 32.3% | 20.0% | 10.2% | L7Days | 36.9% | 14.5% | 19.4% |
| Rays | Road | 35.2% | 14.3% | 14.5% | RH | 35.1% | 15.3% | 15.7% | L7Days | 42.5% | 13.9% | 27.6% |
| Angels | Home | 27.7% | 14.0% | 7.8% | LH | 29.0% | 5.6% | 13.9% | L7Days | 32.4% | 19.0% | 9.9% |
| Cardinals | Home | 27.2% | 12.8% | 6.2% | LH | 31.2% | 7.6% | 15.6% | L7Days | 34.4% | 11.9% | 14.7% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 28.8% | 10.7% | 8.6% | LH | 31.6% | 10.1% | 14.1% | L7Days | 29.4% | 12.8% | 10.1% |
| Indians | Home | 31.4% | 14.6% | 15.1% | RH | 34.3% | 11.5% | 17.4% | L7Days | 31.9% | 10.9% | 14.1% |
| Yankees | Road | 28.8% | 12.6% | 9.8% | RH | 30.3% | 18.5% | 9.4% | L7Days | 30.6% | 26.1% | 5.4% |
| White Sox | Road | 25.6% | 11.2% | 8.1% | RH | 25.5% | 11.5% | 5.6% | L7Days | 23.2% | 11.5% | 1.3% |
| Rangers | Home | 33.5% | 15.4% | 13.5% | RH | 32.8% | 16.2% | 13.2% | L7Days | 30.8% | 15.0% | 8.4% |
| Padres | Home | 26.3% | 12.2% | 2.7% | RH | 29.1% | 16.7% | 7.5% | L7Days | 29.6% | 13.0% | 7.8% |
| Reds | Road | 29.1% | 10.8% | 7.0% | RH | 28.7% | 11.4% | 7.7% | L7Days | 27.7% | 2.0% | 6.4% |
| Twins | Home | 33.4% | 11.6% | 15.6% | LH | 31.4% | 6.5% | 12.8% | L7Days | 23.1% | 17.5% | 3.3% |
| Red Sox | Road | 37.6% | 10.8% | 18.8% | RH | 38.4% | 9.6% | 20.7% | L7Days | 39.5% | 8.0% | 21.7% |
| Braves | Road | 30.7% | 11.9% | 12.0% | RH | 30.8% | 10.9% | 12.3% | L7Days | 31.1% | 7.4% | 12.6% |
| Orioles | Road | 35.3% | 14.9% | 15.9% | LH | 33.8% | 10.4% | 14.4% | L7Days | 36.1% | 15.5% | 18.0% |
| Rockies | Road | 33.1% | 11.8% | 12.8% | RH | 31.2% | 12.7% | 10.6% | L7Days | 31.4% | 7.7% | 12.5% |
| Giants | Home | 23.1% | 8.0% | 1.3% | LH | 25.5% | 9.0% | 5.9% | L7Days | 29.1% | 14.7% | 9.4% |
| Pirates | Home | 27.3% | 10.0% | 5.0% | RH | 29.0% | 8.3% | 7.6% | L7Days | 32.0% | 14.3% | 8.7% |
| Astros | Road | 31.3% | 12.0% | 13.6% | RH | 31.5% | 14.0% | 13.0% | L7Days | 29.5% | 15.1% | 12.7% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 39.9% | 17.6% | 27.1% | LH | 31.9% | 13.8% | 16.6% | L7Days | 45.1% | 19.2% | 34.3% |
| Dodgers | Road | 33.4% | 9.9% | 17.2% | LH | 33.3% | 9.2% | 18.2% | L7Days | 38.8% | 10.1% | 25.7% |
| Tigers | Home | 49.4% | 10.7% | 34.7% | LH | 39.4% | 13.4% | 21.3% | L7Days | 41.5% | 13.0% | 30.4% |
| Phillies | Road | 30.9% | 12.2% | 7.8% | RH | 29.8% | 12.1% | 7.4% | L7Days | 29.8% | 15.4% | 8.5% |
| Mets | Road | 35.0% | 15.7% | 17.8% | RH | 31.9% | 11.6% | 12.9% | L7Days | 29.5% | 12.2% | 12.2% |
K/SwStr Chart (2017 LG AVG – 20.5 K% – 9.6 SwStr% – 2.14 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Triggs | OAK | 18.6% | 11.2% | 1.66 | 22.5% | 12.5% | 1.80 |
| Bronson Arroyo | CIN | 16.0% | 7.2% | 2.22 | 18.2% | 7.7% | 2.36 |
| CC Sabathia | NYY | 15.3% | 9.9% | 1.55 | 17.1% | 10.4% | 1.64 |
| Chad Kuhl | PIT | 17.9% | 12.8% | 1.40 | 15.4% | 13.3% | 1.16 |
| Chase De Jong | SEA | 8.4% | 4.6% | 1.83 | 9.0% | 4.5% | 2.00 |
| Clayton Richard | SDG | 15.8% | 8.4% | 1.88 | 16.1% | 8.4% | 1.92 |
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | 22.8% | 11.1% | 2.05 | 24.5% | 11.5% | 2.13 |
| Danny Salazar | CLE | 32.3% | 16.4% | 1.97 | 28.7% | 16.4% | 1.75 |
| Derek Holland | CHW | 19.1% | 8.7% | 2.20 | 19.4% | 9.3% | 2.09 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | BOS | 29.6% | 14.5% | 2.04 | 29.3% | 15.4% | 1.90 |
| Jaime Garcia | ATL | 13.6% | 8.6% | 1.58 | 16.4% | 8.9% | 1.84 |
| Jake Odorizzi | TAM | 20.3% | 11.8% | 1.72 | 22.9% | 12.9% | 1.78 |
| Jason Hammel | KAN | 18.8% | 9.1% | 2.07 | 21.2% | 9.8% | 2.16 |
| JC Ramirez | ANA | 22.2% | 9.7% | 2.29 | 25.4% | 9.9% | 2.57 |
| Jerad Eickhoff | PHI | 20.0% | 7.9% | 2.53 | 17.9% | 7.4% | 2.42 |
| Jimmy Nelson | MIL | 20.3% | 7.9% | 2.57 | 17.9% | 7.5% | 2.39 |
| John Lackey | CHC | 25.3% | 10.1% | 2.50 | 22.1% | 9.1% | 2.43 |
| Kyle Freeland | COL | 15.1% | 6.1% | 2.48 | 14.4% | 6.5% | 2.22 |
| Lance Lynn | STL | 21.7% | 9.0% | 2.41 | 23.5% | 9.8% | 2.40 |
| Marco Estrada | TOR | 26.2% | 11.9% | 2.20 | 28.4% | 11.9% | 2.39 |
| Matt Boyd | DET | 17.0% | 9.2% | 1.85 | 15.8% | 8.8% | 1.80 |
| Phil Hughes | MIN | 13.8% | 5.5% | 2.51 | 12.5% | 4.7% | 2.66 |
| Rich Hill | LOS | 21.2% | 7.8% | 2.72 | 13.3% | 5.6% | 2.38 |
| Stephen Strasburg | WAS | 23.7% | 11.0% | 2.15 | 24.1% | 11.3% | 2.13 |
| Tom Koehler | MIA | 18.3% | 7.4% | 2.47 | 21.1% | 7.3% | 2.89 |
| Tommy Milone | NYM | 18.1% | 8.2% | 2.21 | 21.5% | 9.1% | 2.36 |
| Ty Blach | SFO | 6.0% | 4.8% | 1.25 | 5.7% | 4.8% | 1.19 |
| Wade Miley | BAL | 27.6% | 9.1% | 3.03 | 27.3% | 10.0% | 2.73 |
| Yu Darvish | TEX | 25.4% | 10.1% | 2.51 | 26.0% | 9.4% | 2.77 |
| Zack Greinke | ARI | 28.4% | 13.5% | 2.10 | 33.3% | 15.1% | 2.21 |
Andrew Triggs has had a volatile SwStr% from start to start and a disappointing overall K%, but his SwStr% is actually up a point from last season when he struck out 23.1% of major league batters.
While both C.C. Sabathia and Chad Kuhl have impressive SwStr rates, each has enough other issues in their profile (hard contact, control) that they’d need more than just an increase in strikeout rate to make them useful, although if Kuhl were to actually meet what his SwStr% suggests, he could be dangerous.
Wade Miley should not be expected to retain a strikeout rate above 25%, but anything above average would be a plus for him.
ERA Estimators Chart (2017 LG AVG – 4.14 ERA – 4.20 SIERA – 4.15 xFIP – 4.23 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | Season DRA | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Triggs | OAK | 2.21 | 3.8 | 1.59 | 3.8 | 1.59 | 2.76 | 0.55 | 2.37 | 0.16 | 3.1 | 3.15 | 0.05 | 3.17 | 0.07 | 2.53 | -0.57 |
| Bronson Arroyo | CIN | 5.94 | 4.8 | -1.14 | 4.89 | -1.05 | 5.76 | -0.18 | 10.14 | 4.20 | 4.44 | 4.49 | 0.05 | 4.37 | -0.07 | 4.87 | 0.43 |
| CC Sabathia | NYY | 5.77 | 4.89 | -0.88 | 4.75 | -1.02 | 5.16 | -0.61 | 7.11 | 1.34 | 7.39 | 4.56 | -2.83 | 4.67 | -2.72 | 5.72 | -1.67 |
| Chad Kuhl | PIT | 5.81 | 4.84 | -0.97 | 5.05 | -0.76 | 3.78 | -2.03 | 3.42 | -2.39 | 7.78 | 4.94 | -2.84 | 5 | -2.78 | 4.28 | -3.5 |
| Chase De Jong | SEA | 7.85 | 6.26 | -1.59 | 6.47 | -1.38 | 6.39 | -1.46 | 10.23 | 2.38 | 6.62 | 6.15 | -0.47 | 6.25 | -0.37 | 5.61 | -1.01 |
| Clayton Richard | SDG | 4.34 | 4.09 | -0.25 | 3.74 | -0.6 | 4.5 | 0.16 | 4.69 | 0.35 | 5.08 | 4.12 | -0.96 | 3.73 | -1.35 | 4.38 | -0.7 |
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | 1.69 | 3.11 | 1.42 | 2.96 | 1.27 | 3.4 | 1.71 | 1.22 | -0.47 | 2.15 | 3.05 | 0.9 | 2.76 | 0.61 | 3.25 | 1.1 |
| Danny Salazar | CLE | 5.2 | 3.32 | -1.88 | 3.26 | -1.94 | 3.53 | -1.67 | 2.50 | -2.70 | 5.47 | 3.63 | -1.84 | 3.68 | -1.79 | 4.02 | -1.45 |
| Derek Holland | CHW | 2.43 | 4.69 | 2.26 | 5.13 | 2.7 | 4.71 | 2.28 | 4.62 | 2.19 | 2.83 | 4.62 | 1.79 | 5.15 | 2.32 | 5.42 | 2.59 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | BOS | 2.8 | 3.54 | 0.74 | 3.65 | 0.85 | 3.46 | 0.66 | 1.45 | -1.35 | 1.8 | 3.23 | 1.43 | 3.31 | 1.51 | 2.29 | 0.49 |
| Jaime Garcia | ATL | 4.33 | 5.39 | 1.06 | 5.04 | 0.71 | 4.91 | 0.58 | 7.35 | 3.02 | 3.7 | 5.26 | 1.56 | 4.9 | 1.2 | 4 | 0.3 |
| Jake Odorizzi | TAM | 2.61 | 4.03 | 1.42 | 4.03 | 1.42 | 4.65 | 2.04 | 4.82 | 2.21 | 1.42 | 3.64 | 2.22 | 3.56 | 2.14 | 3.85 | 2.43 |
| Jason Hammel | KAN | 5.97 | 4.73 | -1.24 | 5.18 | -0.79 | 4.36 | -1.61 | 6.30 | 0.33 | 5.76 | 4.25 | -1.51 | 4.64 | -1.12 | 4.65 | -1.11 |
| JC Ramirez | ANA | 4.2 | 3.86 | -0.34 | 3.75 | -0.45 | 3.75 | -0.45 | 2.62 | -1.58 | 3.23 | 3.52 | 0.29 | 3.45 | 0.22 | 3.14 | -0.09 |
| Jerad Eickhoff | PHI | 4.76 | 4.51 | -0.25 | 4.77 | 0.01 | 4.09 | -0.67 | 6.13 | 1.37 | 6.23 | 4.7 | -1.53 | 4.84 | -1.39 | 4.09 | -2.14 |
| Jimmy Nelson | MIL | 3.99 | 4.28 | 0.29 | 4.21 | 0.22 | 3.82 | -0.17 | 5.17 | 1.18 | 5.33 | 4.81 | -0.52 | 4.5 | -0.83 | 4.39 | -0.94 |
| John Lackey | CHC | 4.29 | 3.4 | -0.89 | 3.35 | -0.94 | 4.15 | -0.14 | 4.39 | 0.10 | 4.8 | 3.56 | -1.24 | 3.5 | -1.3 | 4.81 | 0.01 |
| Kyle Freeland | COL | 2.93 | 4.34 | 1.41 | 4.17 | 1.24 | 3.53 | 0.6 | 4.01 | 1.08 | 1.84 | 4.27 | 2.43 | 4.23 | 2.39 | 3.32 | 1.48 |
| Lance Lynn | STL | 2.75 | 4.24 | 1.49 | 4.36 | 1.61 | 4.69 | 1.94 | 5.94 | 3.19 | 1.86 | 3.97 | 2.11 | 4.13 | 2.27 | 3.97 | 2.11 |
| Marco Estrada | TOR | 3.12 | 3.58 | 0.46 | 3.91 | 0.79 | 3.42 | 0.3 | 5.06 | 1.94 | 2.37 | 3.34 | 0.97 | 3.71 | 1.34 | 2.67 | 0.3 |
| Matt Boyd | DET | 3.89 | 5.04 | 1.15 | 4.9 | 1.01 | 4.31 | 0.42 | 4.87 | 0.98 | 3.48 | 4.92 | 1.44 | 4.69 | 1.21 | 4.17 | 0.69 |
| Phil Hughes | MIN | 4.74 | 4.9 | 0.16 | 5.15 | 0.41 | 4.56 | -0.18 | 6.41 | 1.67 | 5.13 | 4.91 | -0.22 | 5.16 | 0.03 | 4.53 | -0.6 |
| Rich Hill | LOS | 3.38 | 5.13 | 1.75 | 4.81 | 1.43 | 6.38 | 3 | 8.56 | 5.18 | 6 | 5.89 | -0.11 | 5.91 | -0.09 | 8.01 | 2.01 |
| Stephen Strasburg | WAS | 3.28 | 3.61 | 0.33 | 3.52 | 0.24 | 2.82 | -0.46 | 2.47 | -0.81 | 3.51 | 3.73 | 0.22 | 3.73 | 0.22 | 3.05 | -0.46 |
| Tom Koehler | MIA | 5.6 | 4.75 | -0.85 | 4.85 | -0.75 | 6.26 | 0.66 | 6.62 | 1.02 | 6.66 | 4.34 | -2.32 | 4.65 | -2.01 | 5.93 | -0.73 |
| Tommy Milone | NYM | 5.88 | 4 | -1.88 | 4.17 | -1.71 | 5.36 | -0.52 | 5.82 | -0.06 | 4.8 | 3.72 | -1.08 | 4.2 | -0.6 | 6.08 | 1.28 |
| Ty Blach | SFO | 4.88 | 5.76 | 0.88 | 5.41 | 0.53 | 4.42 | -0.46 | 8.39 | 3.51 | 4.38 | 5.61 | 1.23 | 5.2 | 0.82 | 4.43 | 0.05 |
| Wade Miley | BAL | 2.45 | 4.25 | 1.8 | 3.77 | 1.32 | 3.69 | 1.24 | 2.44 | -0.01 | 2.45 | 4.22 | 1.77 | 3.65 | 1.2 | 3.55 | 1.1 |
| Yu Darvish | TEX | 2.96 | 3.94 | 0.98 | 3.64 | 0.68 | 3.98 | 1.02 | 2.90 | -0.06 | 3.34 | 3.68 | 0.34 | 3.49 | 0.15 | 4.4 | 1.06 |
| Zack Greinke | ARI | 2.79 | 2.93 | 0.14 | 2.9 | 0.11 | 3.05 | 0.26 | 1.79 | -1.00 | 2.06 | 2.34 | 0.28 | 2.37 | 0.31 | 3.07 | 1.01 |
Andrew Triggs has a low BABIP, but generates lots of weak ground balls and weak overall contact, which also explains the 3.0 HR/FB. He’s only pitched in one power friendly park (Houston), so we’re sure to see at least a few more HRs, but again, the contact management has been a strength. This is one case where I feel I might actually understand DRA.
Dallas Keuchel has some regression coming in a .209 BABIP and 91.7 LOB%, but probably also in a 19.4 HR/FB. I wouldn’t expect him to reach all the way up to his estimators because the contact management is so elite.
Eduardo Rodriguez has an 81.9 LOB%, but that’s not really extremely high if he keeps his walk rate under control and strikes out 30% of batters. The .263 BABIP may not be a stretch either if he continues to generate weak contact, although Fenway is one of the more difficult BABIP parks, as you can see by the team-wide BABIP above .300 despite a strong defense. He’s in a park that better suits his skill set tonight.
Wade Miley has been extremely fortunate with an 87.9 LOB%.
Yu Darvish has little to no basis for his low BABIP, aside from the .279 team mark, still well above what he’s done. With a career worst 15.1 K-BB%, he’s producing a career best 85.1 LOB%. There’s some regression coming.
BABIP & Statcast Chart (2017 LG AVG – .288 BABIP – 44.3 GB% – 20.3 LD% – 9.0 IFFB% – 86.6 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | GB% | Pitcher LD% | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact | Exit Velocity | Barrels BBE | Barrels PA | BBE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Triggs | OAK | 0.276 | 0.254 | -0.022 | 56.6% | 0.164 | 6.1% | 85.6% | 87.4 | 1.60% | 1.20% | 123 |
| Bronson Arroyo | CIN | 0.263 | 0.252 | -0.011 | 34.7% | 0.22 | 5.9% | 91.4% | 87.9 | 9.20% | 7.10% | 120 |
| CC Sabathia | NYY | 0.283 | 0.293 | 0.01 | 48.4% | 0.218 | 5.4% | 84.9% | 86 | 7.00% | 5.10% | 129 |
| Chad Kuhl | PIT | 0.308 | 0.351 | 0.043 | 39.6% | 0.198 | 5.1% | 83.9% | 87.9 | 6.10% | 4.30% | 99 |
| Chase De Jong | SEA | 0.290 | 0.297 | 0.007 | 29.4% | 0.235 | 6.3% | 97.7% | 88.1 | 4.40% | 3.60% | 68 |
| Clayton Richard | SDG | 0.290 | 0.331 | 0.041 | 61.2% | 0.218 | 4.0% | 89.5% | 86.6 | 4.60% | 3.50% | 151 |
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | 0.285 | 0.209 | -0.076 | 64.4% | 0.148 | 6.5% | 89.3% | 84.6 | 6.50% | 4.60% | 153 |
| Danny Salazar | CLE | 0.306 | 0.395 | 0.089 | 36.0% | 0.27 | 15.2% | 78.3% | 88.3 | 8.80% | 4.90% | 91 |
| Derek Holland | CHW | 0.262 | 0.217 | -0.045 | 35.0% | 0.175 | 5.3% | 86.4% | 88.9 | 7.50% | 5.20% | 120 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | BOS | 0.306 | 0.263 | -0.043 | 37.3% | 0.205 | 5.7% | 75.4% | 84.8 | 6.00% | 3.50% | 84 |
| Jaime Garcia | ATL | 0.282 | 0.255 | -0.027 | 47.8% | 0.221 | 11.8% | 90.5% | 85.9 | 4.40% | 3.20% | 114 |
| Jake Odorizzi | TAM | 0.275 | 0.160 | -0.115 | 32.6% | 0.267 | 2.9% | 82.9% | 85 | 8.00% | 5.90% | 87 |
| Jason Hammel | KAN | 0.290 | 0.369 | 0.079 | 34.2% | 0.237 | 8.3% | 88.6% | 89.1 | 6.10% | 4.20% | 115 |
| JC Ramirez | ANA | 0.274 | 0.304 | 0.03 | 40.9% | 0.252 | 10.3% | 85.7% | 86.6 | 5.10% | 3.60% | 117 |
| Jerad Eickhoff | PHI | 0.285 | 0.294 | 0.009 | 38.3% | 0.158 | 5.5% | 88.1% | 87.8 | 6.50% | 4.60% | 124 |
| Jimmy Nelson | MIL | 0.323 | 0.306 | -0.017 | 45.5% | 0.188 | 0.0% | 90.2% | 85.6 | 3.50% | 2.50% | 115 |
| John Lackey | CHC | 0.298 | 0.310 | 0.012 | 46.7% | 0.183 | 7.1% | 87.0% | 86.8 | 8.10% | 5.50% | 124 |
| Kyle Freeland | COL | 0.285 | 0.272 | -0.013 | 65.9% | 0.154 | 26.1% | 93.7% | 84.9 | 2.40% | 1.70% | 126 |
| Lance Lynn | STL | 0.294 | 0.240 | -0.054 | 46.7% | 0.168 | 5.1% | 82.6% | 86.9 | 7.30% | 4.80% | 110 |
| Marco Estrada | TOR | 0.305 | 0.283 | -0.022 | 37.7% | 0.154 | 3.3% | 78.8% | 88 | 7.60% | 5.00% | 132 |
| Matt Boyd | DET | 0.302 | 0.286 | -0.016 | 43.4% | 0.197 | 13.3% | 83.9% | 88.1 | 7.30% | 5.30% | 123 |
| Phil Hughes | MIN | 0.269 | 0.310 | 0.041 | 34.1% | 0.215 | 8.3% | 91.8% | 90.2 | 10.40% | 8.40% | 135 |
| Rich Hill | LOS | 0.298 | 0.263 | -0.035 | 45.0% | 0.15 | 12.5% | 82.9% | 88.6 | 9.50% | 6.10% | 21 |
| Stephen Strasburg | WAS | 0.294 | 0.297 | 0.003 | 49.2% | 0.172 | 9.3% | 86.9% | 88.1 | 9.90% | 6.80% | 131 |
| Tom Koehler | MIA | 0.275 | 0.286 | 0.011 | 38.8% | 0.223 | 5.0% | 88.2% | 88 | 8.40% | 5.90% | 107 |
| Tommy Milone | NYM | 0.323 | 0.333 | 0.01 | 36.7% | 0.233 | 19.4% | 87.9% | 85.3 | 9.90% | 7.80% | 91 |
| Ty Blach | SFO | 0.308 | 0.242 | -0.066 | 45.4% | 0.216 | 6.3% | 92.7% | 84.9 | 4.00% | 3.40% | 101 |
| Wade Miley | BAL | 0.298 | 0.291 | -0.007 | 48.9% | 0.227 | 8.0% | 89.4% | 88.5 | 4.50% | 2.60% | 89 |
| Yu Darvish | TEX | 0.279 | 0.240 | -0.039 | 38.9% | 0.275 | 6.8% | 85.1% | 86.4 | 6.80% | 4.40% | 132 |
| Zack Greinke | ARI | 0.291 | 0.285 | -0.006 | 44.4% | 0.185 | 14.0% | 84.1% | 87.2 | 6.60% | 4.40% | 137 |
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
Value Tier One
Eduardo Rodriguez (3) is becoming a dominant pitcher both in terms of strikeouts and contact. While the Cardinals have been strong against pitchers with this profile (fly ball, power pitchers), they have not been strong against LHP and the park should play to his advantage. You’re getting one of the top power pitchers on the slate for no more than $8K.
Stephen Strasburg (1) may be striking out fewer batters this year with the same SwStr%, but has still been a quality pitcher and is in a great run prevention spot tonight.
Value Tier Two
Dallas Keuchel (2) has been contact dominant with more than enough strikeouts. The only issue is that he’s the highest priced pitcher on the board and will need to be near perfect to exceed his cost by very much. He may have that ability with perhaps the highest floor of any non-elite strikeout pitcher.
JC Ramirez has faltered over his last couple of starts and we’re nearly off the bandwagon, but he may be in tonight’s top spot, at home against the White Sox at a very affordable cost around $7K.
Andrew Triggs (5t) now exceeds $8K and shouldn’t be very popular at all at that price against a tough offense, especially with the strikeouts down. Those who look at his SwStr% and batted ball/contact profile won’t be disappointed though. He’s still showing the underlying stuff of a potential All-Star. Then again, those who look at just ERA may prefer him as well.
Value Tier Three
John Lackey (5t) is once again defying the odds, but we can’t deny the nearly elite 19.2 K-BB% in a decent spot against the Reds at home at an affordable price. Kevin is calling for warm and windy conditions, strongly out towards CF at Wrigley tonight. If those conditions don’t change much in the late forecast, it may be worth dropping him a tier or even altogether.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk. .
Zack Greinke (4) has been great, but the cost is high and the circumstances, once again, less than ideal at home.
Yu Darvish (5t) may be having the worst season of his career despite his ERA saying it’s one of the best. It’s still above average though. He’s one of four pitchers above $10K on either site. All are likely usable, but his situation may present the most danger.
Wade Miley is greatly flawed and a 14.7 BB% could bring it all crashing down once his strand and strikeout rates normalize, but he’s inexpensive (below $8K) in a spot that may not be as bad as many may think in Detroit tonight.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
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