Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Friday, April 28th

by Doug Thorburn (DougThorburn) Last Updated 2017-04-28 19:11:45

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.

There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.

LEGEND

Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ

Daily Pitcher Chart

Pitcher	Team	Opp	IP	ERA	SIERA	WHIP	GEM%	K%	BB%	HR/9	GB%
Kevin Gausman	BAL	NYY	203.2	4.07	4.02	1.37	50.00%	21.8%	7.1%	1.41	44.0%
Jacob deGrom	NYM	WAS	172.2	2.97	3.56	1.2	54.17%	24.8%	6.5%	0.89	46.5%
Blake Snell	TBR	TOR	110.1	3.51	4.76	1.58	26.32%	22.9%	13.4%	0.65	37.4%
Ariel Miranda	SEA	CLE	78.2	4	4.52	1.18	40.00%	19.0%	7.2%	1.94	34.6%
Jameson Taillon	PIT	MIA	129.1	3.13	3.69	1.14	50.00%	20.2%	5.2%	1.04	52.9%
Jake Arrieta	CHC	BOS	222	3.16	3.82	1.08	48.39%	24.5%	9.1%	0.85	51.5%
Mike Pelfrey	CHW	DET	123.1	5.04	5.29	1.71	18.18%	10.2%	8.4%	1.17	51.4%
Tyler Skaggs	LAA	TEX	74	4.26	4.26	1.45	30.00%	22.7%	9.9%	0.97	40.3%
Jharel Cotton	OAK	HOU	52	3.29	4.55	1.08	60.00%	18.1%	7.1%	0.87	36.4%
Bartolo Colon	ATL	MIL	215.2	3.55	4.35	1.2	48.48%	16.5%	4.2%	1.13	42.7%
Kyle Gibson	MIN	KCR	164.1	5.48	4.73	1.6	24.00%	15.7%	8.4%	1.37	48.8%
Tim Adleman	CIN	STL	79.2	3.84	4.61	1.15	30.77%	18.2%	6.8%	1.81	35.3%
Kyle Freeland	COL	ARI	21.2	3.32	4.24	1.48		14.6%	10.4%	0.42	66.2%
Jerad Eickhoff	PHI	LAD	222	3.53	4	1.15	42.42%	21.1%	5.5%	1.34	40.7%
Luis Perdomo	SDP	SFG	157	5.79	4.02	1.58	30.00%	16.0%	7.1%	1.38	59.5%
CC Sabathia	NYY	BAL	203	3.77	4.42	1.31	40.00%	19.2%	8.6%	1.11	49.1%
Max Scherzer	WAS	NYM	256	2.85	3.04	0.95	67.65%	31.5%	6.4%	1.16	33.1%
Marcus Stroman	TOR	TBR	233	4.21	3.6	1.28	43.75%	19.0%	6.1%	0.85	59.8%
Carlos Carrasco	CLE	SEA	173.2	3.06	3.4	1.09	44.00%	25.3%	5.9%	1.24	48.3%
Adam Conley	MIA	PIT	151.1	3.75	4.63	1.37	32.00%	21.0%	10.5%	0.89	38.2%
Drew Pomeranz	BOS	CHC	186.1	3.43	3.74	1.19	46.67%	26.8%	9.1%	1.21	44.7%
Matt Boyd	DET	CHW	116	4.42	4.51	1.34	27.78%	19.4%	8.1%	1.40	38.6%
Nick Martinez	TEX	LAA	45.2	4.93	5.67	1.51		9.3%	9.8%	1.58	50.3%
Charlie Morton	HOU	OAK	38.1	4.23	3.83	1.46	50.00%	22.5%	9.5%	0.47	54.5%
Chase Anderson	MIL	ATL	175.2	3.94	4.55	1.33	16.67%	19.1%	7.9%	1.49	36.4%
Ian Kennedy	KCR	MIN	221.2	3.49	4.3	1.2	42.42%	22.4%	8.5%	1.42	33.8%
Lance Lynn	STL	CIN	23.1	2.7	4	1.03		21.1%	8.4%	1.16	49.2%
Robbie Ray	ARI	COL	198	4.73	3.61	1.46	28.13%	28.3%	9.7%	1.23	46.0%
Kenta Maeda	LAD	PHI	194.2	3.93	3.71	1.18	43.75%	24.7%	6.9%	1.25	42.1%
Jeff Samardzija	SFG	SDP	227.2	4.19	4.02	1.23	46.88%	21.0%	6.7%	1.15	45.9%

ALL-IN:

The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.

Max Scherzer WAS (vs. NYM, $12700) – Scherzer is worth that amount on a daily basis, but against a Mets team that just lost their biggest slugger to injury, Scherzer might just cut up a Cespedes-less lineup with a monster fantasy score today. Scherzer has had an incredible run to start the season, avoiding the gopher ball syndrome that plagued him last season and posting a 1.95 ERA with a 33:8 K:BB in 27.2 innings. He’s also allowed an NL-low 4.9 H/9 en route to a 0.831 WHIP. He has benefitted from a relatively soft schedule of opponents in the early going and is coming off his roughest outing of the year, with three runs allowed (including the only two homers of the campaign) against these Mets – who had Cespedes on the bench that day – but he also went eight full frames and struck out nine batters on his way to 30.4 points on DraftKings; a repeat performance would register a profit on his current price tag.

RAISE:

The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.

Carlos Carrasco CLE (vs. SEA, $10200) – Mariners are dropping like flies, with the team having recently lost Felix Hernandez and Mitch Haniger, though the team did welcome back Kyle Seager in his return to the lineup yesterday. The absence of Haniger will make for an easier path to profit for Carrasco, but the biggest bats in the Seattle lineup are still intact and the notoriously-streaky Nelson Cruz has been on fire for the past week. For his part, Carrasco has cruised through the opening month, posting a 1.65 ERA with a 27:7 K:BB in 27.1 innings, and he’s coming off his most dominant outing of the season, spinning 8.0 scoreless frames against the White Sox with eight strikeouts against just three hits and a lone walk. He hasn’t allowed more than four hits or two runs in a game yet this season, and five of his seven free passes this year came in one outing, raising the bar of optimism that he can rise up to the challenge against a formidable Mariners lineup.

Jake Arrieta CHC (at BOS, $9600) – Arrieta has pitched better than his 3.65 ERA might suggest, with 29 strikeouts against five walks in 24.2 innings this season, but an uncharacteristic vulnerability to the longball has tarnished his efforts t run prevention. The right-hander has already coughed up five home runs this season, spoiling the 5.8 K/BB, and turning what had been a major strength of the past three seasons into a weakness this year. He also led the majors in hit rate the past two seasons, and though that rate has gone up a chunk, his 7.3 H/9 is still well below league average. Homers are one area where the Red Sox have struggled mightily out of the gate, with just 11 bombs as a team, a total that ranks last in the majors by a decent margin, so if the power outage continues then this matchup plays right into the hands of Arrieta.

Jameson Taillon PIT (at MIA, $7400) – Taillon registered plenty of strikeouts as well as walks in the minors, but in his first season at the highest level he reeled back the frequency of both outcomes. The walks have returned in 2017 but the strikeouts have remained low, with a 20:10 K:BB through 25.1 innings, but Taillon has overcome the mediocre peripherals to post a tidy 2.13 ERA through his first four starts. He’s had a tough schedule, having faced the Yankees, Cubs, Reds and Red Sox so far this year, so the Marlins would seemingly allow him some room to breathe, as Miami’s offense has ranked below three of those four clubs in terms of run-scoring this season.

Chase Anderson MIL (vs. ATL, $7100) – Call me a believer. Anderson has started to incorporate a cutter as a key piece of his arsenal this season, and the extra wrinkle has greatly expanded his options when playing the chess match with opposing hitters. His current ERA of 1.13 is obviously unsustainable, but it’s not like he’s been using all smoke and mirrors, as his .286 BABIP is close enough to both the league average and his career mark (.301) to remove that particular explanation of expected regression. He’s only allowed one home run in 24.0 innings this season after being exceptionally homer-prone throughout his career prior to 2017, so that will likely be the first brick in the wall to loosen, but his 22:6 K:BB suggest that there might be some additional legitimacy to his ability to avoid the fat part of opponent bats. The Braves are less likely to test Anderson tonight, given their bottom-10 homer total, and his price tag is low enough that one can pair him with any other starter on the slate and still afford to carry a strong lineup.

Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against

Pitcher	Team	Opp	wOBA vs L	ERA vs L	wOBA vs R	ERA vs R	AVG	SIERA	BABIP	FIP
Kevin Gausman	BAL	NYY	0.298	3.42	0.356	4.62	0.268	4.02	0.316	4.29
Jacob deGrom	NYM	WAS	0.273	2.4	0.316	3.59	0.247	3.56	0.313	3.23
Blake Snell	TBR	TOR	0.295	2.08	0.324	3.86	0.252	4.76	0.326	3.8
Ariel Miranda	SEA	CLE	0.357	2.93	0.31	4.26	0.236	4.52	0.242	5.27
Jameson Taillon	PIT	MIA	0.302	2.25	0.296	3.99	0.245	3.69	0.284	3.72
Jake Arrieta	CHC	BOS	0.281	3.23	0.251	3.11	0.196	3.82	0.242	3.57
Mike Pelfrey	CHW	DET	0.381	5.12	0.369	4.95	0.323	5.29	0.341	5.22
Tyler Skaggs	LAA	TEX	0.344	2.93	0.319	4.6	0.261	4.26	0.325	3.94
Jharel Cotton	OAK	HOU	0.247	2.78	0.286	3.68	0.211	4.55	0.238	3.78
Bartolo Colon	ATL	MIL	0.331	3.94	0.285	3.16	0.261	4.35	0.288	3.96
Kyle Gibson	MIN	KCR	0.387	6.25	0.339	4.81	0.3	4.73	0.333	4.94
Tim Adleman	CIN	STL	0.33	4.33	0.327	3.45	0.236	4.61	0.243	5.31
Kyle Freeland	COL	ARI	0.373	8.31	0.309	2.08	0.262	4.24	0.304	3.94
Jerad Eickhoff	PHI	LAD	0.343	3.95	0.267	3.07	0.241	4	0.274	4.11
Luis Perdomo	SDP	SFG	0.37	6.75	0.347	5	0.305	4.02	0.339	4.77
CC Sabathia	NYY	BAL	0.287	2.95	0.315	3.97	0.245	4.42	0.281	4.33
Max Scherzer	WAS	NYM	0.321	3.41	0.197	2.34	0.192	3.04	0.251	3.16
Marcus Stroman	TOR	TBR	0.316	4.8	0.307	3.63	0.265	3.6	0.311	3.6
Carlos Carrasco	CLE	SEA	0.308	2.58	0.28	3.43	0.228	3.4	0.276	3.65
Adam Conley	MIA	PIT	0.332	4.25	0.311	3.59	0.239	4.63	0.289	4.18
Drew Pomeranz	BOS	CHC	0.305	2.53	0.283	3.73	0.216	3.74	0.27	3.81
Matt Boyd	DET	CHW	0.271	3.05	0.338	4.72	0.256	4.51	0.289	4.62
Nick Martinez	TEX	LAA	0.4	6.16	0.323	4.05	0.272	5.67	0.268	6.21
Charlie Morton	HOU	OAK	0.283	3.06	0.358	5.23	0.265	3.83	0.342	3.16
Chase Anderson	MIL	ATL	0.289	3.58	0.374	4.24	0.256	4.55	0.285	4.75
Ian Kennedy	KCR	MIN	0.299	3.53	0.311	3.45	0.227	4.3	0.261	4.55
Lance Lynn	STL	CIN	0.349	4.66	0.197	1.32	0.188	4	0.21	4.22
Robbie Ray	ARI	COL	0.283	4.65	0.344	4.75	0.26	3.61	0.346	3.77
Kenta Maeda	LAD	PHI	0.331	3.91	0.263	3.94	0.236		0.287	3.87
Jeff Samardzija	SFG	SDP		5.31	0.273	3.23	0.25		0.292	3.91

CALL:

Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.

Jacob DeGrom NYM (vs. WAS, $10500) – The Nats just scored 42 runs over the last three games in the thin air of Coors Field, a ridiculous total that results from the league’s hottest offense playing in a pinball environment. DeGrom better hope that the Nats offense suffers from a reverse bends-effect on their travels back down to sea level, as Washington has currently scored the most runs in the majors (139), are tied for second in homers (32) and have the best record in baseball at 16-6. Still, there’s no doubting deGrom’s upside, as the right-hander has compiled a 2.65 ERA this season that is right in line with his career mark of 2.87, though his 2017 profile has taken a different shape so far with spikes in his rates of strikeouts (11.7 K/9) and walks (3.6 BB/9).

Robbie Ray ARI (vs. COL, $8200) – Want true outcomes? Then look no further. Ray opens the floodgates for strikeouts, including a rate of 11.4 K/9 this season that is a near-perfect match for his 11.3 K/9 from last season, but his overly-generous 3.7 BB/9 from 2016 has absolutely skyrocketed, with 5.3 BB/9 through four starts this season to go with his typical rate of more than a homer allowed every nine frames. His lefty-ness will act to mute some of the Rockies’ bats – Carlos Gonzalez in particular – but the Colorado lineup is deep and will likely cause problems for Ray.

Jerad Eickhoff PHI (at LAD, $8600) – It might surprise some to learn this, but Eickhoff has now accumulated a low 1.128 WHIP over 273.0 innings at the highest level. Low walk rates are largely responsible, but this season it’s been hit suppression that has kept the WHIP down, and he’s tacked on a few strikeouts for good measure (more than a K per inning this year). In four starts this season, he has kept the opposing offense at two runs or fewer three times, only allowing three earnies in a 6.0-inning effort against the juggernaut Nationals in Washington. He has built up his pitch count as well, tossing 98 pitches in his last start, and setting him up to surpass the century mark with a good day against the Dodgers.

Marcus Stroman TOR (vs. TB, $9100) – It’s hard not to root for Stroman, the diminutive righty with big man stuff who dominated some of the best bats in the world for the US team in the WBC. Today he faces a Tampa Bay offense that is firing on all cylinders, though the Rays’ team-wide penchant for batter strikeouts helps to buffer any pitcher’s expected point total in DFS. That said, strikeouts haven’t been a part of Stroman’s game since he was in the minors, and his K-rate has hit a new low this season with just 5.6 K/9, putting the onus on his ability to generate weak contact. A rash of injuries to Toronto bats has also squashed his expected run support, lowering the odds of his collecting the W, and without the points for wins and strikeouts it makes it extremely difficult to justify the $9100 price tag, even with a 3.10 ERA. In his favor is the fact that Stroman is coming off a complete game victory over the Angels that was worth 29.35 points on DraftKings, a game that illustrates the reality of his ultimate 30-point ceiling.

Jeff Samardzija SF (vs. SD, $9000) – The only things keeping the Shark afloat in today’s sea of options is a weak opponent and a pitcher-friendly home ballpark. He has done little in terms of making his own case, aside from a spike in strikeouts, as he carries a lofty ERA of 7.20 and an 0-4 record through 24.1 innings of work. At $9000, there are better options to roster that don’t carry such a high risk of implosion.

Kenta Maeda LAD (vs. PHI, $8700)

Blake Snell TB (at TOR, $7200)

Jharel Cotton OAK (at HOU, $7300)

Drew Pomeranz BOS (vs. CHC, $7600)

Lance Lynn STL (vs. CIN, $7800)

Ian Kennedy KC (vs. MIN, $8000)

Kevin Gausman BAL (at NYY, $7000)

CC Sabathia NYY (vs. BAL, $6800

Adam Conley MIA (vs. PIT, $6300)

Tim Adleman CIN (at STL, $6400)

Tyler Skaggs LAA (at TEX, $7700)

Bartolo Colon ATL (at MIL, $6600)

Kyle Freeland COL (at ARI, $6500)

Angel Miranda SEA (at CLE, $5200)

Matt Boyd DET (vs. CHW, $6200)

Nick Martinez TEX (vs. LAA, $5500)

Charlie Morton HOU (vs. OAK, $6900)

FOLD:

Run away. Do Not Pass Go. Do Not Collect $200. Consider stacking with opposing lineups.

Luis Perdomo SD (at SF, $6000)

Kyle Gibson MIN (at KC, $5700)

Mike Pelfrey CHW (at DET, $5000)