Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Saturday, April 15th
Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | Team | Opp | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Hellickson | PHI | WAS | 199 | 3.57 | 4.21 | 1.14 | 40.63% | 19.4% | 5.8% | 1.09 | 40.3% |
| Carlos Martinez | STL | NYY | 207.2 | 3.08 | 3.9 | 1.21 | 51.61% | 21.8% | 8.3% | 0.69 | 55.5% |
| Alec Asher | BAL | TOR | 27.2 | 2.28 | 5.12 | 0.94 | 40.00% | 11.7% | 3.6% | 0.33 | 35.2% |
| Zach Davies | MIL | CIN | 172.2 | 4.33 | 4.13 | 1.31 | 46.43% | 19.4% | 6.0% | 1.09 | 45.3% |
| Jose Quintana | CHW | MIN | 219.2 | 3.36 | 4.03 | 1.17 | 62.50% | 21.4% | 6.1% | 1.07 | 39.8% |
| Tyler Glasnow | PIT | CHC | 25 | 5.76 | 5.05 | 1.76 | 21.0% | 15.1% | 0.72 | 45.1% | |
| Tyler Chatwood | COL | SFG | 169.1 | 4.04 | 4.51 | 1.39 | 44.44% | 18.0% | 10.3% | 1.01 | 57.1% |
| Lance McCullers | HOU | OAK | 94 | 3.16 | 3.39 | 1.47 | 42.86% | 30.3% | 11.6% | 0.67 | 58.9% |
| Jake Odorizzi | TBR | BOS | 199.2 | 3.74 | 4.22 | 1.18 | 45.45% | 21.2% | 6.9% | 1.44 | 36.4% |
| Justin Verlander | DET | CLE | 241 | 2.95 | 3.42 | 1 | 64.71% | 28.1% | 6.4% | 1.12 | 33.4% |
| Clayton Richard | SDP | ATL | 81.2 | 3.2 | 4.36 | 1.56 | 55.56% | 13.7% | 10.0% | 0.66 | 65.7% |
| Jacob deGrom | NYM | MIA | 160 | 2.93 | 3.65 | 1.18 | 54.17% | 23.4% | 6.0% | 0.84 | 46.8% |
| Matt Shoemaker | LAA | KCR | 169.1 | 4.09 | 3.95 | 1.24 | 51.85% | 20.9% | 4.9% | 1.12 | 40.3% |
| Patrick Corbin | ARI | LAD | 165.2 | 4.94 | 4.44 | 1.56 | 25.00% | 18.1% | 9.4% | 1.30 | 53.5% |
| Andrew Cashner | TEX | SEA | 132 | 5.25 | 4.72 | 1.53 | 22.22% | 19.1% | 10.2% | 1.30 | 46.5% |
| Tanner Roark | WAS | PHI | 221 | 2.89 | 4.28 | 1.17 | 54.55% | 20.0% | 8.3% | 0.69 | 48.8% |
| CC Sabathia | NYY | STL | 190.2 | 3.78 | 4.42 | 1.32 | 40.00% | 19.3% | 8.7% | 1.04 | 49.8% |
| Marco Estrada | TOR | BAL | 187 | 3.61 | 4.33 | 1.14 | 41.38% | 22.6% | 9.0% | 1.25 | 34.4% |
| Brandon Finnegan | CIN | MIL | 181 | 3.83 | 4.84 | 1.35 | 35.48% | 20.5% | 11.7% | 1.44 | 39.1% |
| Ervin Santana | MIN | CHW | 194.1 | 3.2 | 4.31 | 1.18 | 46.67% | 19.7% | 7.2% | 0.93 | 42.8% |
| Jake Arrieta | CHC | PIT | 210.1 | 3.04 | 3.88 | 1.07 | 48.39% | 24.4% | 9.5% | 0.73 | 52.3% |
| Matt Moore | SFG | COL | 211.2 | 4 | 4.37 | 1.27 | 45.45% | 20.8% | 8.3% | 1.11 | 39.1% |
| Sean Manaea | OAK | HOU | 156 | 4.1 | 3.94 | 1.18 | 37.50% | 21.5% | 6.4% | 1.21 | 45.4% |
| Chris Sale | BOS | TBR | 241.1 | 3.21 | 3.37 | 1.02 | 53.13% | 26.0% | 4.9% | 1.04 | 40.7% |
| Corey Kluber | CLE | DET | 227 | 3.25 | 3.54 | 1.07 | 56.25% | 26.0% | 6.7% | 1.03 | 43.7% |
| R.A. Dickey | ATL | SDP | 175.1 | 4.47 | 4.81 | 1.4 | 31.03% | 17.2% | 8.8% | 1.44 | 42.9% |
| Justin Nicolino | MIA | NYM | 79.1 | 4.99 | 5.11 | 1.46 | 15.38% | 10.7% | 5.8% | 0.91 | 46.6% |
| Nate Karns | KCR | LAA | 20.00% | ||||||||
| Kenta Maeda | LAD | ARI | 185.2 | 3.64 | 3.7 | 1.15 | 43.75% | 24.8% | 7.0% | 1.07 | 43.2% |
| James Paxton | SEA | TEX | 134 | 3.43 | 3.51 | 1.25 | 45.00% | 23.2% | 4.8% | 0.60 | 47.4% |
ALL-IN:
The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.
Corey Kluber CLE (vs. DET, $10200) – On a day that has six pitchers priced at $10k or higher on DraftKings, Kluber stands out as the top pitcher of the bunch despite having just the fifth-highest salary. It is an incredibly deep pool of starting pitchers, but Kluber earns the top spot with a manageable price tag and the top skill-set on board. Facing the Tigers might seem like risky business, but he’s at home and the Tigers are without J.D. Martinez, blazing an easier trail for Kluber to follow en route to the top of the pitcher pile for today.
RAISE:
The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.
Chris Sale BOS (vs. TB, $11500) – Sale ranks just behind Kluber on my personal pitching board for this season, but Sale has the easier matchup today and the price tag is the only thing keeping him out of elite waters. The southpaw has dominated thus far in 2017, giving up a 1.23 ERA through his first two starts and compiling a 17:2 K:BB in 14.2 innings along the way. He’ll look to add to the strikeout pile against the Rays, a team whose hitters have struck out a major-league-leading 104 times this season.
Justin Verlander DET (at CLE, $8500) – I had to do a double-take when I first saw the price on Verlander, a pitcher who could easily justify a price tag that was $1500 higher. Verlander is picking up right where he left off last season, cruising through his first two starts with a 1.35 ERA, a 0.97 WHIP and more than a K per inning. The duel of Kluber vs. Verlander is easily the most enticing matchup of the day.
Jake Arrieta CHC (vs. PIT, $10700) – One of the toughest pitchers in the game, Arrieta has once again made full use of the gloves behind him to allow just seven hits across his first 13.0 innings of work in 2017, with four walk allowed against 16 strikeouts. He even leads the majors with three wild pitches, one season after pacing the senior circuit with 16 wild ones uncorked during the season. Arrieta has been worth more than 25 points on DraftKings in each of his first two turns, and after building up his workload to 98 pitches in his last outing, the Cubs will likely take off the training wheels and allow Arrieta past the century mark so long as he keeps the Pirates at bay.
Jacob deGrom NYM (at MIA, $10600) – Injury concerns swirled all offseason, following surgery to address a tendon issue in his throwing arm, but deGrom appears to have emerged on the other side with his skills unscathed. He has allowed less than a baserunner per inning so far but the strikeouts have been missing, with nine Ks through his first two starts and 12.0 innings. DeGrom has been very hard to hit, with just a lone double standing as the only extra-base knock on his resume this season. The Marlins have been on fire of late and the list of offensive fish to avoid continues to grow, from RBI king Marcell Ozuna (four more RBI than any other player in baseball) or the rejuvenated JT Realmuto to the colossus Giancarlo Stanton, the latter of whom has unmatched – and untapped – upside
Lance McCullers HOU (at OAK, $10400) – My faith in McCullers as a starter is reflected in this ranking. His salary is starting to climb, squeezing the profit margins as the rest of the sport catches on to his skills. The right-hander with the revamped delivery (he has a much shorter arm path now) has adapted extremely quickly to the new arm action, notching 17 strikeouts with just two walks allowed, one of which was intentional. The A’s have had a roughly league-average offense in the early going this year, but they lack upside and carry an offense that could seemingly implode at any given time.
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | Team | Opp | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | SIERA | BABIP | FIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Hellickson | PHI | WAS | 0.315 | 3.39 | 0.287 | 3.73 | 0.238 | 4.21 | 0.271 | 3.94 |
| Carlos Martinez | STL | NYY | 0.315 | 3.57 | 0.256 | 2.54 | 0.234 | 3.9 | 0.288 | 3.55 |
| Alec Asher | BAL | TOR | 0.274 | 3 | 0.202 | 1.42 | 0.21 | 5.12 | 0.231 | 3.33 |
| Zach Davies | MIL | CIN | 0.334 | 3.81 | 0.311 | 4.83 | 0.267 | 4.13 | 0.311 | 3.94 |
| Jose Quintana | CHW | MIN | 0.273 | 2.76 | 0.308 | 3.53 | 0.244 | 4.03 | 0.288 | 3.75 |
| Tyler Glasnow | PIT | CHC | 0.368 | 4.66 | 0.354 | 6.46 | 0.265 | 5.05 | 0.338 | 4.69 |
| Tyler Chatwood | COL | SFG | 0.324 | 4.38 | 0.327 | 3.67 | 0.253 | 4.51 | 0.29 | 4.47 |
| Lance McCullers | HOU | OAK | 0.324 | 3.02 | 0.314 | 3.28 | 0.254 | 3.39 | 0.368 | 3 |
| Jake Odorizzi | TBR | BOS | 0.265 | 2.09 | 0.337 | 4.99 | 0.236 | 4.22 | 0.266 | 4.41 |
| Justin Verlander | DET | CLE | 0.26 | 2.73 | 0.28 | 3.18 | 0.203 | 3.42 | 0.255 | 3.39 |
| Clayton Richard | SDP | ATL | 0.276 | 1.27 | 0.342 | 3.88 | 0.283 | 4.36 | 0.32 | 4.26 |
| Jacob deGrom | NYM | MIA | 0.265 | 2.35 | 0.318 | 3.57 | 0.247 | 3.65 | 0.306 | 3.24 |
| Matt Shoemaker | LAA | KCR | 0.308 | 4.35 | 0.326 | 3.77 | 0.263 | 3.95 | 0.31 | 3.78 |
| Patrick Corbin | ARI | LAD | 0.327 | 4.46 | 0.358 | 5.1 | 0.28 | 4.44 | 0.32 | 4.75 |
| Andrew Cashner | TEX | SEA | 0.38 | 5.43 | 0.341 | 5.08 | 0.273 | 4.72 | 0.315 | 4.84 |
| Tanner Roark | WAS | PHI | 0.28 | 2.21 | 0.281 | 3.48 | 0.225 | 4.28 | 0.27 | 3.72 |
| CC Sabathia | NYY | STL | 0.29 | 3.11 | 0.313 | 3.94 | 0.246 | 4.42 | 0.286 | 4.25 |
| Marco Estrada | TOR | BAL | 0.273 | 2.99 | 0.302 | 4.31 | 0.207 | 4.33 | 0.237 | 4.25 |
| Brandon Finnegan | CIN | MIL | 0.286 | 1.55 | 0.328 | 4.49 | 0.229 | 4.84 | 0.257 | 5.03 |
| Ervin Santana | MIN | CHW | 0.282 | 2.79 | 0.294 | 3.59 | 0.235 | 4.31 | 0.273 | 3.81 |
| Jake Arrieta | CHC | PIT | 0.277 | 3.11 | 0.244 | 2.98 | 0.191 | 3.88 | 0.239 | 3.47 |
| Matt Moore | SFG | COL | 0.292 | 4.75 | 0.305 | 3.78 | 0.24 | 4.37 | 0.282 | 4.12 |
| Sean Manaea | OAK | HOU | 0.239 | 2.9 | 0.319 | 4.39 | 0.24 | 3.94 | 0.28 | 4.04 |
| Chris Sale | BOS | TBR | 0.251 | 3.16 | 0.282 | 3.22 | 0.221 | 3.37 | 0.275 | 3.37 |
| Corey Kluber | CLE | DET | 0.288 | 3.21 | 0.272 | 3.29 | 0.216 | 3.54 | 0.269 | 3.44 |
| R.A. Dickey | ATL | SDP | 0.345 | 4.58 | 0.334 | 4.38 | 0.26 | 4.81 | 0.285 | 4.98 |
| Justin Nicolino | MIA | NYM | 0.29 | 5.73 | 0.359 | 4.71 | 0.297 | 5.11 | 0.317 | 4.39 |
| Nate Karns | KCR | LAA | ||||||||
| Kenta Maeda | LAD | ARI | 0.326 | |||||||
| James Paxton | SEA | TEX |
CALL:
Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.
Carlos Martinez STL (at NYY, $9100) – Martinez has surrendered just one walk over his first two starts of the regular season, an uncharacteristic but welcome addition to his statistical profile if the newfound control numbers stick to his statline for the rest of the season. Long-drive champion Gary Sanchez is on the shelf, softening the Yankees lineup so that Car-Mart can knead it like a wad of fresh cookie dough. His fastball isn’t yet firing on all cylinders, checking in at 95.1 mph compared to last year’s average of 97.0 mph; the current pitch-speed is still elite and many pitchers take some time to warm up and reach max velocity, but the Cardinals have to be encouraged by the fact that the right-hander has pitched well despite stuff that is slightly compromised.
Jose Quintana CHW (at MIN, $8300) – Quintana bounced back nicely after his disaster start on Opening Day, striking out seven Twins in his second start of the season against one walk, five hits and two runs allowed. He did allow another home run, the fourth homer that Quintana has allowed this season, but the result was an otherwise excellent day that reaffirmed the southpaw’s effectiveness and afforded a stay of execution for fantasy managers who grew wary after he gave up six runs over 5.1 innings in his first start of the season.
James Paxton SEA (vs. TEX, $9600) – Paxton is one of two pitchers in baseball that still have a pristine ERA, but the caveats of small sample size are apparent by looking at the top of the ERA leaderboard through the first two weeks of the season: Paxton, Andrew Triggs, Mike Leake, Jason Vargas, Ervin Santana; not exactly elite company. Paxton certainly has the stuff to suggest a breakout, and any southpaw with top-end velocity will be given several chances to work through his mistakes. Today, he’ll be tasked with carving up a Texas lineup that is without its best player (Adrian Beltre), setting the stage for Paxton to potentially make it through his third star with the perfect ERA still intact.
Sean Manaea OAK (vs. HOU, $7400) – Manaea has endured two rough outings in a row, first giving up four runs over 6.0 innings to the Angels, followed by six runs (five earned) versus the Rangers in just 5.1 frames. He did pile up the strikeouts in his last start, whiffing 10 batters to save his DFS line for the day, putting up 17.80 points on DraftKings. His tour of the AL West now brings the division-leading Astros to town, a team with a deep lineup that brings a well-balanced attack of speed, power, contact and patience. Manaea showed a level of dominance in the second half of 2016 that he has yet to rediscover this season, and the Astros are an unlikely opponent to help him to reclaim that level of success.
Kenta Maeda LAD (vs. ARI, $10000)
Tanner Roark WAS (vs. PHI, $8100)
Jake Odorizzi TB (at BOS, $6700)
Matt Shoemaker LAA (at KC, $8900)
Matt Moore SF (vs. COL, $8000)
Marco Estrada TOR (vs. BAL, $8200)
Ervin Santana MIN (vs. CHW, $7500)
Patrick Corbin ARI (vs. LAD, $6500)
Nate Karns KC (vs. LAA, $7300)
R.A. Dickey ATL (vs. SD, $7100)
Jeremy Hellickson PHI (at WAS, $7100)
CC Sabathia NYY (vs. STL, $7000)
Tyler Chatwood COL, (at SF, $7300)
Andrew Cashner TEX (at SEA, $6700)
Zach Davies MIL (at CIN, $5900)
Brandon Finnegan CIN (vs. MIL, $6800)
FOLD:
Run away. Do Not Pass Go. Do Not Collect $200. Consider stacking with opposing lineups.
Adam Conley MIA (vs. NYM, $6900)
Alec Asher BAL (at TOR)