Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Wednesday, April 12th
Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
The dollar figure in parentheses is the pitcher’s salary on DraftKings, which was taken into consideration when determining the tiers of value on today’s breakdown.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | Team | Opp | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Snell | TBR | NYY | 95.2 | 3.67 | 4.61 | 1.59 | 26.32% | 24.0% | 13.1% | 0.56 | 35.3% |
| Kyle Gibson | MIN | DET | 152.1 | 5.08 | 4.7 | 1.56 | 24.00% | 16.2% | 8.5% | 1.30 | 48.8% |
| Zach Lee | SDP | COL | |||||||||
| Mike Leake | STL | WAS | 184.2 | 4.53 | 3.91 | 1.3 | 40.00% | 16.7% | 3.9% | 0.97 | 53.2% |
| Derek Holland | CHW | CLE | 113.1 | 4.84 | 5.02 | 1.38 | 45.00% | 14.8% | 7.4% | 1.19 | 38.3% |
| Amir Garrett | CIN | PIT | 6 | 0 | 4.45 | 0.67 | 19.1% | 9.5% | 0.00 | 33.3% | |
| Zack Wheeler | NYM | PHI | 4 | 11.25 | 3.43 | 1.75 | 21.1% | 5.3% | 2.25 | 50.0% | |
| Chase Anderson | MIL | TOR | 157.2 | 4.28 | 4.68 | 1.35 | 16.67% | 18.5% | 8.2% | 1.66 | 36.2% |
| Jaime Garcia | ATL | MIA | 177.2 | 4.71 | 4.02 | 1.37 | 30.00% | 19.6% | 7.7% | 1.37 | 55.9% |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | BOS | 146.2 | 5.58 | 4.7 | 1.57 | 24.00% | 19.8% | 11.1% | 1.10 | 48.3% |
| Brandon McCarthy | LAD | CHC | 46 | 4.7 | 4.63 | 1.3 | 22.22% | 24.7% | 13.9% | 0.59 | 35.4% |
| Andrew Triggs | OAK | KCR | 62 | 3.92 | 3.54 | 1.23 | 14.29% | 21.4% | 6.1% | 0.73 | 50.8% |
| A.J. Griffin | TEX | LAA | 122.1 | 5.22 | 4.62 | 1.37 | 21.74% | 21.1% | 9.1% | 2.21 | 29.1% |
| Mike Fiers | HOU | SEA | 174.2 | 4.38 | 4.29 | 1.36 | 36.67% | 18.3% | 6.0% | 1.39 | 42.7% |
| Shelby Miller | ARI | SFG | 106.1 | 6.09 | 5.04 | 1.66 | 20.00% | 15.9% | 9.3% | 1.27 | 42.1% |
| Jordan Montgomery | NYY | TBR | |||||||||
| Michael Fulmer | DET | MIN | 165 | 2.95 | 4.05 | 1.12 | 50.00% | 20.3% | 6.6% | 0.87 | 48.8% |
| Kyle Freeland | COL | SDP | 6 | 1.5 | 2.72 | 1 | 25.0% | 8.3% | 0.00 | 66.7% | |
| Max Scherzer | WAS | STL | 235 | 2.95 | 3.05 | 0.97 | 67.65% | 31.4% | 6.3% | 1.19 | 32.7% |
| Danny Salazar | CLE | CHW | 143 | 3.97 | 3.83 | 1.35 | 40.00% | 28.0% | 11.0% | 1.07 | 48.1% |
| Ivan Nova | PIT | CIN | 168 | 4.02 | 3.76 | 1.24 | 30.77% | 18.5% | 4.0% | 1.23 | 53.1% |
| Vincent Velasquez | PHI | NYM | |||||||||
| Marcus Stroman | TOR | MIL | 210.1 | 4.28 | 3.6 | 1.29 | 43.75% | 19.5% | 6.4% | 0.90 | 60.2% |
| Tom Koehler | MIA | ATL | 181.2 | 4.26 | 4.86 | 1.46 | 39.39% | 19.0% | 10.8% | 1.14 | 42.1% |
| Steven Wright | BOS | BAL | 163.1 | 3.42 | 4.56 | 1.26 | 50.00% | 19.2% | 8.8% | 0.72 | 43.8% |
| John Lackey | CHC | LAD | 194.1 | 3.38 | 3.81 | 1.07 | 55.17% | 24.2% | 7.1% | 1.07 | 41.4% |
| Jason Hammel | KCR | OAK | 171.2 | 3.88 | 4.36 | 1.23 | 53.33% | 20.4% | 8.0% | 1.31 | 41.7% |
| Jesse Chavez | LAA | TEX | 72.2 | 4.21 | 3.54 | 1.29 | 22.7% | 6.3% | 1.49 | 41.8% | |
| Yovani Gallardo | SEA | HOU | 123 | 5.41 | 5.29 | 1.6 | 21.74% | 16.2% | 11.4% | 1.24 | 43.1% |
| Matt Cain | SFG | ARI | 93.2 | 5.77 | 4.71 | 1.54 | 23.53% | 17.8% | 8.3% | 1.73 | 37.9% |
ALL-IN:
The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.
The schedule has included several days that were split day/night, giving us days like today on which one-third of the schedule is made up of day games. For DFS purposes, this effectively lops off a third of the player pool, pulling Carlos Carrasco off the main line yesterday and today claiming Max Scherzer. Despite the absence of a slam-dunk ace, I actually prefer spreads like today, because it spreads out the ownership rates and requires us to do a bit more digging in order to unearth the diamonds in the rough.
RAISE:
The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.
Marcus Stroman TOR (vs. MIL, $9,300) – The cost is steep but the combination of his strong recent performance, the weak opponent from Milwaukee and the thin overall slate today conspire to elevate Stroman to the top of the ranking sheet. The right-hander shut down the Rays in his first start, needing just 89 pitches to chew through 19 outs while giving up just one run on six hits and two walks, with five strikeouts tacked onto his ledger for the outing. His average fastball velocity was a half-tick harder than it was for all of last season, despite the reality that most pitchers need some time before hitting the gas full-bore, suggesting that Stroman could be establishing a new baseline for his stuff this season.
Vincent Velasquez PHI (vs. NYM, $9,200) – Strikeouts are few and far between for most of the pitchers on today’s list, but Velasquez is the exception. His bat-missing acumen was established last season, when the right-hander posted 10.4 K/9 with 152 strikeouts over 131.0 innings, though a concurrent problem with walks came as the result of his running deep counts to so many hitters last season, with his 4.01 pitches per plate appearance ranking as the 20th-highest such rate in the majors among 125 qualified pitchers (he went more than 6.0 innings deep just three times in 24 starts). It was more of the same in his first start of the year, taking 94 pitches to complete just 4.0 innings of work against the hot-hitting Nats, yet compiling 10 of the 12 outs on his day via the strikeout.
Ivan Nova PIT (vs. CIN, $8,000) – Speaking of pitches per plate appearance, do you know which MLB pitcher had the lowest rate in the majors among the 125 pitchers who qualified? That’s right: this guy. Nova averaged just 3.38 pitches per plate appearance last season, a feat that allowed him to pitch more than 6.0 frames in six of his 26 starts last season despite exceeding the century mark in just three of his turns – he even threw two complete games without exceeding triple-digits in pitches in either ballgame. He continued his quick work in his first start of 2017, allowing just one unearned run through 6.0 innings and 94 pitches, with four strikeouts and zero walks allowed, a continuation of the ridiculous 52:3 K:BB that he pulled down as a member of the Pirates last season. The strikeout upside is low and his dominance is a new wrinkle in the track record, but the underlying stats indicate that Nova is a strong candidate to continue rolling today against the Reds.
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | Team | Opp | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | SIERA | BABIP | FIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Snell | TBR | NYY | 0.302 | 2.33 | 0.326 | 4.01 | 0.257 | 4.61 | 0.341 | 3.55 |
| Kyle Gibson | MIN | DET | 0.375 | 5.43 | 0.335 | 4.79 | 0.294 | 4.7 | 0.328 | 4.79 |
| Zach Lee | SDP | COL | ||||||||
| Mike Leake | STL | WAS | 0.322 | 4.53 | 0.317 | 4.53 | 0.279 | 3.91 | 0.317 | 3.75 |
| Derek Holland | CHW | CLE | 0.245 | 2.08 | 0.343 | 5.5 | 0.268 | 5.02 | 0.292 | 4.62 |
| Amir Garrett | CIN | PIT | 0.177 | 0 | 0.142 | 0 | 0.105 | 4.45 | 0.133 | 2.63 |
| Zack Wheeler | NYM | PHI | 0.585 | 21.6 | 0.266 | 3.86 | 0.333 | 3.43 | 0.385 | 4.97 |
| Chase Anderson | MIL | TOR | 0.285 | 3.86 | 0.392 | 4.64 | 0.259 | 4.68 | 0.282 | 5.08 |
| Jaime Garcia | ATL | MIA | 0.3 | 2.97 | 0.344 | 5.16 | 0.264 | 4.02 | 0.302 | 4.54 |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | BOS | 0.377 | 5.79 | 0.316 | 5.44 | 0.27 | 4.7 | 0.32 | 4.52 |
| Brandon McCarthy | LAD | CHC | 0.305 | 5.59 | 0.273 | 4.05 | 0.2 | 4.63 | 0.263 | 3.78 |
| Andrew Triggs | OAK | KCR | 0.315 | 4.67 | 0.278 | 3.34 | 0.247 | 3.54 | 0.302 | 3.29 |
| A.J. Griffin | TEX | LAA | 0.414 | 6.12 | 0.304 | 4.43 | 0.255 | 4.62 | 0.274 | 5.89 |
| Mike Fiers | HOU | SEA | 0.322 | 4 | 0.357 | 4.69 | 0.275 | 4.29 | 0.309 | 4.47 |
| Shelby Miller | ARI | SFG | 0.397 | 6.79 | 0.327 | 5.25 | 0.301 | 5.04 | 0.338 | 4.85 |
| Jordan Montgomery | NYY | TBR | ||||||||
| Michael Fulmer | DET | MIN | 0.274 | 2.37 | 0.295 | 3.59 | 0.227 | 4.05 | 0.267 | 3.73 |
| Kyle Freeland | COL | SDP | 0.443 | 0 | 0.229 | 1.59 | 0.182 | 2.72 | 0.25 | 1.97 |
| Max Scherzer | WAS | STL | 0.324 | 3.52 | 0.204 | 2.45 | 0.196 | 3.05 | 0.255 | 3.2 |
| Danny Salazar | CLE | CHW | 0.281 | 4.07 | 0.327 | 3.87 | 0.234 | 3.83 | 0.31 | 3.75 |
| Ivan Nova | PIT | CIN | 0.366 | 4.37 | 0.299 | 3.78 | 0.27 | 3.76 | 0.306 | 4.04 |
| Vincent Velasquez | PHI | NYM | ||||||||
| Marcus Stroman | TOR | MIL | 0.319 | 4.91 | 0.304 | 3.63 | 0.263 | 3.6 | 0.309 | 3.67 |
| Tom Koehler | MIA | ATL | 0.332 | 3.71 | 0.325 | 4.86 | 0.256 | 4.86 | 0.296 | 4.63 |
| Steven Wright | BOS | BAL | 0.275 | 3.41 | 0.306 | 3.42 | 0.236 | 4.56 | 0.281 | 3.84 |
| John Lackey | CHC | LAD | 0.304 | 3.43 | 0.262 | 3.35 | 0.214 | 3.81 | 0.258 | 3.74 |
| Jason Hammel | KCR | OAK | 0.346 | 4.16 | 0.291 | 3.68 | 0.237 | 4.36 | 0.269 | 4.49 |
| Jesse Chavez | LAA | TEX | 0.351 | 5.88 | 0.3 | 3.28 | 0.265 | 3.54 | 0.312 | 4.25 |
| Yovani Gallardo | SEA | HOU | 0.35 | |||||||
| Matt Cain | SFG | ARI |
CALL:
Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.
John Lackey CHC (vs. LAD, $9,900) – I like Lackey fine, but the near-$10K cost is too rich for my blood, as I refuse to pay that much cap room for his services. Finding values today will be difficult given the inflated salaries of starting pitchers across the board, but Lackey is one of the most egregious price hikes given that he is facing the deep lineup of the Dodgers. His approach is low on walks and strikeouts, limiting his DFS ceiling given the weight placed on Ks, though his strengths of stamina and pitch efficiency will go a long way toward buffering his innings in today’s outing. Lackey is a relatively safe option in a player pool that is teeming with volatility, though the cost of that security comes at a high premium.
Shelby Miller ARI (at SF, $7,400) – Speaking of volatility, Miller has been one of the league’s most tumultuous starters of the past four years, dodging between All-Star seasons and unplayable performances. He faces the Giants for the second time in this young season, and the first time was a mixed bag, with 5.1 innings of three-run baseball that included five hits and three walks allowed along with a robust count of seven strikeouts. He should benefit from a much friendlier venue this time around, plying his trade in the homer-suppressing confines of ATT Park, but his continued lack of pitch-count efficiency – he took 105 pitches to get 16 outs last week – could haunt his overall stat-line once again in round two.
Zack Wheeler NYM (at PHI, $8,300) – The fourth-most expensive pitcher on the 4pm/7pm slate, Wheeler’s cost is $1200 less than number three yet just $100 higher than number five, and his price tag continues to reflect optimism despite an injury-laden track record that includes 3.9 BB/9 and less than a strikeout per inning. It’s as if the prospect glow that got folks excited back when Wheeler was dealt to the Mets in the Carlos Beltran trade has never subsided – yet that deal was made all the way back in 2011. His first start was a disaster – five runs on six hits and a walk in 4.0 frames against the Marlins – and thus far in his career Wheeler has been all projection with little substance. I will remain hesitant to be over-exuberant with the former until we see more of the latter.
Steven Wright BOS (vs. BAL, $7,600) – Knuckleballers are inherently risky, relying on a butterfly pitch whose flight patterns can be sensitive to everything from pitch grip and release-point consistency to the weather. Fenway Park can be unforgiving and the Orioles’ lineup is stacked to punish mistakes and send those butterflies packing, leaving Wright vulnerable to factors that are outside his control. On the plus side, Wright has been able to harness the knuckler with relative consistency and the Orioles are a swing-and-miss ballclub that could have trouble with the dancing pitch. Knuckleballers can also be sensitive to stolen bases, allowing the Orioles no-run policy on the basepaths to play to his advantage.
Jesse Chavez LAA (vs. TEX, $7,500)
Jason Hammel KC (vs. OAK, $7,700)
Brandon McCarthy LAD (at CHC, $7,800) – It’s not that I think McCarthy is a terrible option, but rather it’s his context that anchors him to the floor of today’s rankings. The price isn’t cheap (seventh-highest of 20 starting pitchers, though a half-dozen players cost essentially the same in that spectrum), he’s facing the prolific offense of the Cubs, and his limited workload from his first start of the season (78 pitches) could very well be the harbinger of a short leash again in today’s game. If the Cubs do their thing and run up pitch counts, then McCarthy could be bounced early from the game even if pitching well.
Amir Garrett CIN (at PIT, $5,800) – Garrett’s first start, in which he allowed just two hits and two walks across six scoreless frames against the Cardinals – requiring just 78 pitches to process the 18 outs – has stirred up the excitement in some circles and has caused some managers to be overly optimistic when looking at his profile. But this is a pitcher who compiled a 3.94 ERA in the minors with pedestrian rates of 8.0 K/9 and 3.7 BB/9, though he was notoriously difficult to hit and surrendered just 0.5 HR/9 in 496.0 minor-league frames. I’m not ready to anoint Garrett as the next big thing and believe that his supporters are cruising for a letdown, but the southpaw will likely maintain a strong ownership rate on the heels of his shutdown performance in his major-league debut.
Jaime Garcia ATL (at MIA, $7,100)
Tom Koehler MIA (vs. ATL, $6,900)
A.J. Griffin TEX (at LAA, $7200)
Chase Anderson MIL (at TOR, $6,800)
Matt Cain SF (vs. ARI, $5,100)
Andrew Triggs OAK (at KC, $5,300)
FOLD:
Run away. Do Not Pass Go. Do Not Collect $200. Consider stacking with opposing lineups.
Mike Fiers HOU (at SEA, $8,200) – I know that the Seattle bats are in a funk right now, but even accepting that there’s some carry-over into today’s ballgame, the price tag on Fiers is way too high. He’s a candidate for the bottom of the call list even before getting to the quality of his opponent or his price tag, so the added elements of facing a Seattle lineup that has a treacherous middle of the order and having a salary is too big for his britches conspire to drop Fiers into the lowest tier of value.
Yovani Gallardo SEA (vs. HOU, $6,700)
Ubaldo Jimenez BAL (at BOS, $6,100)