FREE PREMIUM: CheeseIsGood's Million Dollar Musings - MLB DFS Strategy: Friday, July 8th
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Happy Friday, I guess. I’m coming to you from the future, as I’ve just finished writing today’s Musings. My initial fears about this slate have been confirmed. It’s just a huge wide-open mess of kind of OK stuff. I basically have zero conviction on anything on the offensive side, and while I have some pitching preferences, there are so many viable options that there’s no ideal way to sort them all out. Perhaps I’ll end up a little more focused in on something later in the day as we start to see lineups roll in, but for now, this is the nonsense we have.
Friday Night Pitching
There is a crazy ton of pretty good pitching, but a lack of truly elite, can’t miss aces. This is the bird’s eye view of everything that could potentially end up in the top tier, and then we’ll start cutting and sorting:
Zack Wheeler at Cardinals
Nestor Cortes at Red Sox
Lucas Giolito vs Tigers
Charlie Morton vs Nationals
Chris Bassitt vs Marlins
Sonny Gray at Rangers
Jon Gray vs Twins
Pablo Lopez at Mets
Tyler Anderson vs Cubs
Zac Gallen vs Rockies
Aaron Ashby vs Pirates
Jose Urquidy at A’s
Adam Wainwright vs Phillies
Blake Snell vs Giants
Tarik Skubal at White Sox
George Kirby vs Blue Jays
OK, yikes! This is so many decent pitchers it’s going to be very tough to narrow down. Let me start by cutting a few and then sorting into some buckets.
As you probably know, in general Tarik Skubal and George Kirby are two of my favorite pitchers. But Skubal has been way off his game for a month, and this is too tough a matchup for the salary on Kirby. So, they miss they cut. Nestor Cortes has been too up and down to want to pay top dollar in Boston, so he’s out. Um, shoot, no more easy cuts, let’s make some buckets:
Wild Cards with Upside
Lucas Giolito vs Tigers – 27.3% K, 8.9% BB, 4.90 ERA, 3.63 SIERA
Blake Snell vs Giants – 27.9% K, 12.8% BB, 5.13 ERA, 4.02 SIERA
Aaron Ashby vs Pirates – 28.1% K, 10.4% BB, 4.60 ERA, 3.23 SIERA
These are three of the five highest strikeout rates on this slate, and they are also three of the highest walk rates, making them three of the least consistent options.
Lucas Giolito chalk. I certainly get it with the price and the matchup, but Lucas Giolito chalk? This is a guy who has topped six innings only once in 14 starts and is barely past one of the worst months any pitcher in the league has seen all season. He has looked basically back to normal in his last two starts, and if you look at his splits, it’s actually a big help if Detroit goes with 6+ lefties against him. Here’s what I can tell you. At $7,800 on DK, he’s very easily the SP1 by projections, and has the most points per dollar upside. I have to rank him first based on that, but I will tell you that I am going to be drastically under the field on him. On FD, he’s a tad pricier, but still cheap compared to the top of the board. I’ll play him a bit, but not as my primary option. I simply don’t trust his nonsense as chalk.
Blake Snell? Goodness gracious, who knows. He was awful, then awful, then bad, then awful, then struck out 12 Dodgers. That is Blake Snell. The key point here is that the big start last week has no bearing whatsoever on tonight. He could strike out another 12, he could also go three innings with six walks. I prefer Giolito, and that’s really saying something.
Aaron Ashby is doing his best to fit into this nonsense group of talented pitchers with wild swings in every direction. The very clear issue here is not even the inconsistency, but the pitch count. He missed a few weeks, then threw 62 pitches in his first start back. He should be back up towards 80, and against Pittsburgh, that’s plenty for him to be good, but it also lowers his ceiling and his margin for error. I love the matchup and the salary enough that he makes my pool, ahead of Snell but behind Giolito.
Actually Good Pitchers
Zack Wheeler at Cardinals – 27.9% K, 5.6% BB, 2.66 ERA, 3.08 SIERA
Charlie Morton vs Nationals – 27.3% K, 8.4% BB, 4.34 ERA, 3.52 SIERA
Chris Bassitt vs Marlins – 25.7% K, 7% BB. 4.01 ERA, 3.49 SIERA
Sonny Gray at Rangers – 24.7% K, 6.4% BB, 2.47 ERA, 3.55 SIERA
Jon Gray vs Twins – 26.2% K, 8.2% BB, 3.96 ERA, 3.57 SIERA
Pablo Lopez at Mets – 24.6% K, 7.1% BB, 2.97 ERA, 3.58 SIERA
Tyler Anderson vs Cubs – 21.5% K, 4.4% BB, 3.09 ERA, 3.76 SIERA
Zac Gallen vs Rockies – 22.8% K, 6.8% BB, 3.40 ERA, 3.77 SIERA
Jose Urquidy at A’s – 18.2% K, 5.5% BB, 4.15 ERA, 4.34 SIERA
Adam Wainwright vs Phillies – 20.3% K, 6.8% BB, 3.26 ERA, 3.97 SIERA
Based on long-term skill set, Zack Wheeler is the clear best pitcher on the board tonight. Based on recent performance, Charlie Morton is the best pitcher on the board tonight. I can argue that they are ‘overpriced’ in the context of this slate in these matchups, but I can also argue that with no pitcher higher than $10,200 on either site, salary is not the primary issue tonight. The way I view this is that I trust Wheeler and Morton roughly 271% more than I trust Giolito or Snell. The matchups are not as good as Giolito’s, and the realistic per-inning upside is not as good as Snell. Whoop-dee-doo. These are my two favorite pitchers tonight and it’s not particularly close. This is where I get in that tricky situation of not knowing exactly the best way to do my job here. I think I am supposed to tell you that Giolito is the best play tonight, and he probably is. But, I’m playing Wheeler and Morton long before him.
I’m also playing Chris Bassitt ahead of Giolito, but with a slight concern that he doesn’t have quite his full leash after missing 12 days on the covid list. It was only one missed start and there’s no injury, so he is probably fine, but maybe he only gets six innings where he would get seven, and those innings are what gives him his ceiling. That puts him behind Wheeler and Morton.
I love Zac Gallen, but he’s had just the one big strikeout game and overall, it just doesn’t look likely to see a ceiling game with him. The Brothers Gray are both very good pitchers, but Sonny’s strikeouts have been way down at a goofy 17.4% the past month and I really don’t like it. Jon has been the better and more consistent Gray and I like him a little, but not enough to include him in the primary pool.
Pablo Lopez and Adam Wainwright just don’t quite make it tonight. These guys are good, but good is where it stops. They are just priced up a little too high for what they are. That is also the issue with Tyler Anderson, who I just can’t pay $9k for on this slate.
OK, what about Jose Urquidy? He has the lowest strikeout rate of anyone in this group, but also has strong control, consistent innings and most importantly, a trip to Oakland, which is perfect for a strike throwing fly ball pitcher. Oakland is really not terrible enough to just play any random pitcher against them, it’s more that this matchup just really suits the pitching style of Urquidy perfectly. He should get a few extra strikeouts, but more than that he has a clear path to easy innings against a bunch of low walk batters who don’t hit the ball hard. I’m playing him as my SP3 behind Wheeler and Morton.
What About Cheap Nonsense?
Aaron Civale at Royals
Tyler Wells vs Angels
Reid Detmers at Orioles
Ross Stripling at Mariners
The biggest problem with the cheap nonsense is that it’s not really cheap. All these guys are between $5,800 – $6,600 on DK. While I’ve tried to highlight the problems with them, Giolito, Snell and Ashby are below $8k. I can’t in good conscience tell you to play these cheap nonsense darts when you have upside pitchers like that below $8k.
That’s really the whole story here. Realistically, Aaron Civale should be able to get you six innings and maybe all the batted balls go his way and he’s sort of OK. He’s really not a much different pitcher than Jose Urquidy and I’m playing Urquidy, so sure if getting down to $6,500 makes all the difference, I’ll play a Civale lineup. And then I have to mention that Tyler Wells has five straight starts over 15-DK points. He’s a decent-ish real life pitcher at $6,300 in a matchup that offers a lot of strikeouts. I’d land on him after Civale as a second cheap dart throw where salary is necessary.
PITCHING CLIFF NOTES
This is just yikes all around. I have no conviction anywhere and I’m extremely torn on what I’m supposed to tell you.
The very obvious best play is Lucas Giolito. The matchup is great and he’s cheap for his talent. I’m assuming this ends up as mega-chalk in smaller field tournaments especially, and I am going out of my way to be under the field. I just don’t trust him. But, he is also the best play. Do with that what you will. Blake Snell is Giolito in a tougher matchup, and Aaron Ashby is Giolito in a great matchup with pitch count concerns added to his skill set inconsistency. I will simply mix and match these three in various combos, but none of them are my primary options tonight.
I am paying up for Zack Wheeler and Charlie Morton. I’d rather spend a few extra bucks for actual good pitchers. I am also playing Jose Urquidy ahead of Giolito and Snell, but at basically the same level. After that, I will start tossing in Chris Bassitt, Zac Gallen and Jon Gray. The more lineups I build, the more I’ll spread out, and this is one of those slates where I am not going to be narrowed down to my usual level with pitchers.
I would not tell you that it’s wrong to go the other way and just get way ahead of the field on Giolito. I completely understand that angle as well, it’s just not what I’m doing.
Friday Night Bats
I feel the same level of Yikes in looking at the offense tonight. Because of the state of the pitching, with a ton of good, but not great pitchers, we are left with a ton of good, but not great offense. I end up with a 5-team top tier and then a messy second tier where I could include pretty close to every team on the slate, though I’ll narrow it down a bit.
TOP TIER OFFENSE
Atlanta Braves vs Erick Fedde
NY Yankees at Connor Seabold
Milwaukee Brewers vs JT Brubaker
LA Dodgers vs Keegan Thompson
Arizona Diamondbacks vs Chad Kuhl
Because of how it drops off after this, I have this group as a clear top five, but this is not at the level of what we often see as a top tier. There is not a single pitcher anywhere on this slate with a SIERA above 4.80, which is to say there are no gas cans. But the two highest SIERA’s belong to Chad Kuhl and Erick Fedde. Both are below average strikeout pitchers with no particularly strong batted ball skills. My big picture view of both this top tier as well as the slate overall is that I don’t see how I’m going to be able to pick out the right group of individual bats to try to win a tournament with one offs.
Sure, play Aaron Judge, Mike Trout, Ronald Acuna and Jose Ramirez, but I can make that list 25 players deep with no real separation and nothing that is can’t miss.
What makes this top tier the top tier is that each one of these offenses is good enough for a break the slate performance. With the Yankees, it’s more based on their talent than the opposing pitcher, while with the Diamondbacks, it’s based more on the opposing pitcher and bullpen. With the Braves, Dodgers and Brewers, it’s a little bit of both.
In trying to set some sort of order of preference, I’m just going based on the opposing pitchers, and putting the Braves first, Diamondbacks second, Dodgers third, Brewers fourth and Yankees fifth.
Arizona also has the best salary pieces available in this group, while the Braves also start to get affordable at the bottom of the lineup. I am perfectly content leaving Acuna or Swanson out of a Braves stack to be able to make them fit with high end pitching. Likewise, I’m happy to leave one or two of Betts, Freeman and Turner out of a Dodgers stack to make it fit.
The biggest wild card in all this is the Yankees, as we have no idea yet who Connor Seabold is. My lean is that he’s good, but of course I’ll play Judge or Stanton in any lineup and I’ll have Yankees stacks early on in my spread-it-out portfolio. I’m also of the opinion that JT Brubaker is more good than bad, but I do like Rowdy Tellez a good bit on his own along with Brewers stacks at the bottom of this top tier.
TIER TWO OFFENSE
Baltimore Orioles vs Reid Detmers
Boston Red Sox vs Nestor Cortes
Chicago White Sox vs Tarik Skubal
Houston Astros at Paul Blackburn
SD Padres vs Sam Long / SF Bullpen
Toronto Blue Jays at George Kirby
Seattle Mariners vs Ross Stripling
Jose Ramirez and some Royals
There is no exact right point to draw the line for the end of tier two. It’s really all a big mess, and none of it is great. All of these pitchers are good enough that ideally I wouldn’t be looking for bats against them. But then that’s the case with the whole slate.
Sadly, I have to say that the White Sox are my favorite team here with all their right-handed bats to line up against Skubal. But even with the recent bad performance, Skubal is not a pitcher I want to attack. It’s just a scary good group of numbers against lefties with Jose Abreu, Luis Robert, Andrew Vaughn, AJ Pollock, Eloy Jimenez and Tim Anderson all over a .180 ISO against lefties since last season.
Reid Detmers got sent back to the minors after some rough outings, and was apparently not happy about it as he struck out 14 batters in his one Triple-A start. He has some bad numbers this season, but there is talent here, and like everything, I don’t love attacking this.
Folks, this is all a bunch of weird nonsense. I am not going to spend all day typing words that all end the same. This is a throw darts against the wall kind of slate. I am not going to pretend to know more than I do, and I’m not going to start picking out names just for the sake of doing it.
OK, What Are We Doing?
Almost every day, as I work through a slate, I end up with some sort of idea as to how I’m prioritizing things. Most often, I get to a very clear top tier and at least a handful of individual bats to focus on. Tonight, I just don’t have them.
All I can really say is that if I were just building 1-3 lineups, they would be Atlanta and/or Arizona stacks. That’s really it, I don’t have any one player or team that I would feel the need to put along with them. If salary were no issue at all, I guess I’d just go Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton, followed by Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani. But I don’t feel like I have to have any of them.
On FD, I think I’m just going straight 4/4 in every lineup. I generally prefer to play a few one offs since you can afford them, but if I don’t know who they are, I’d rather correlate.
On DK, I’m going 5-man or 4/4 stacks across the board, and most likely 5/3 unless I’m left with a bunch of salary somewhere.
I am never going to try and outsmart myself, and I’m not going to try and tell you something that I don’t know. I know that I don’t know what’s going on tonight, and I’m spreading out far and wide playing to catch some outliers.
HITTING CLIFF NOTES
If you have a strong lean towards anything, go after it with your head held high and flags waving. I don’t know what that means.
I’m going Braves and Diamondbacks first, Yankees, Dodgers and Brewers next. That’s all I know for sure, and then I start throwing darts. Those darts will definitely include some White Sox and Orioles, and they will also include some Jose Ramirez, Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker, Corey Seager, Bobby Witt, Kyle Schwarber, Manny Machado, Julio Rodriguez and Vladimir Guerrero.
I’m mostly looking to pair value bats together in at least mini stacks, with players like this:
Vinnie Pasquantino and Hunter Dozier, Alek Thomas and David Peralta, Eddie Rosario and Michael Harris, Nate Lowe and Kole Calhoun, AJ Pollock and Yoan Moncada, Luke Voit and Ha-seong Kim, Darick Hall and Bryson Stott.
There is some chance that as I am building lineups throughout the afternoon, I’ll end up a little more focused somewhere and perhaps spot something that I’m missing right now. Tune into Crunchtime if you want to catch any last-minute epiphanies I might have.
Image Credit: Imagn