MLB GPP Plays: Tuesday, July 5th
Every Tuesday and Friday I am going to give you my top tournament plays for all Daily Fantasy Baseball GPPs (guaranteed prize pool). GPPs are a general term used across the industry for your big money tournaments.
GPPs are very different from your cash games and you use a different strategy with them. In our GPPs we are not interested in safe plays, since GPPs are all about UPSIDE. We want players who can explode, as all-or-nothing type players can become GPP gold, and your value players are just as important as your star players. You need your players to have huge nights in order to take down these big tournaments.
My goal is to provide players who will be under-owned and have that big game upside you are looking for. I will also try to find as much value as I possibly can. Now, let’s get to the MLB GPP plays!
STARTING PITCHERS
Madison Bumgarner, San Francisco Giants – Bumgarner is having another dominant season and perhaps the best season of his career. The San Francisco Giants lefty owns a 2.20 ERA along with a measly .208 BAA and a career best 9.9 K9/ rate. The Colorado Rockies have been awful on the road lately. Since May 1st, the Rockies are dead-last in road OPS (.525) versus southpaws, even the Atlanta Braves are ahead of them (.619). Not to mention, they have whiffed over 41% of the time in their last four games. Bumgarner will be the highest scoring pitcher tonight and because of his hefty salary, he is likely to go under-owned in tournament play.
Carlos Carrasco, Cleveland Indians – Carrasco has been dealing all season long (2.56 ERA, .225 BAA, 25.4% strikeout rate) and he seems to be getting even better if his last two outings are any indication. The 29-year-old Venezuelan has been downright filthy in his last two starts, racking up 21 punch-outs while allowing just one earned run, and this includes a complete game shutout with seven strikeouts against these same Detroit Tigers. He won’t come cheap, but his upside is worth paying for.
Taijuan Walker, Seattle Mariners – Walker has been superb in three of his last four starts, facing some of the American League’s best teams in Baltimore, Boston and Cleveland. On the season, he has been inconsistent, with most of his struggles taking place on the road. However, he still carries massive GPP upside, thanks to his double-digit strikeout potential. The Houston Astros are a potent offense, but they also strikeout at a 24% clip, which is the third-most in Major League Baseball against right-handed pitching. Walker is strictly a boom-or-bust tournament option, but the boom is worth rolling the dice on.
Other Pitchers to Target – Carlos Rodon, Kenta Maeda, Gio Gonzalez
CATCHER
Welington Castillo, Arizona Diamondbacks – After a strong start to the season, Christian Friedrich has come back down to Earth a little. The San Diego Padres southpaw has allowed 14 earned runs, including four home runs in his last three starts. During this rough patch, hitters from the right side of the plate have been his biggest nemesis. The Beef Welington has murdered lefties all season long and I think we see more of that tonight.
Travis d’Arnaud, New York Mets – d’Arnaud is swinging a hot bat of late, compiling eight hits in his last four games, including a home run and four runs batted in. Wei-Yin Chen has been as hittable as ever in 2016. Chen has always struggled with the long-ball and this year has been no exception. The Miami Marlins lefty has allowed 16 home runs this year, with 15 of them being hit by right-handed batters. Look for d’Arnaud to stay hot in this plus matchup.
Other Catchers to Target – Buster Posey, Russell Martin, Salvador Perez, Yan Gomes
FIRST BASE
Justin Smoak, Toronto Blue Jays – Chris Young is not having a good season (6.24 ERA, 42.9% hard-hit rate) and left-handed hitters are the main reason (.527 wOBA, 55.1% hard-hit rate). Most fantasy owners tend to ignore Justin Smoak when looking to get exposure to the Toronto Blue Jays lineup, and that could pay off big time tonight in GPPs. Smoak has double-dong potential in this prime matchup.
Ryan Howard, Philadelphia Phillies – It is tough even writing up Ryan Howard, but there is some merit to playing him tonight in large field tournaments. Lefties have abused Mike Foltynewicz this season (.433 wOBA) and Howard still has home run upside. He is nothing more than an all-or-nothing option, but at his inexpensive price across the industry, Howard makes a solid high upside punt play.
Other First Basemen to Target – Edwin Encarnacion, David Ortiz, Paul Goldschmidt, Carlos Santana, Kendrys Morales, Freddie Freeman
SECOND BASE
Jason Kipnis, Cleveland Indians – Anibal Sanchez has been awful in 2016, sporting a 6.05 ERA, a .290 BAA and a 43.3% hard-hit rate. Making matters worse, the Tigers right-hander has already allowed 16 home runs this season and he has been demoted to the bullpen twice. Jason Kipnis has hits in 15 of his last 16 contests and he has jack-and-a-bag upside in this game.
Jean Segura, Arizona Diamondbacks – The Arizona Diamondbacks have one of the highest implied run totals of the night and that should mean we see a big game from Jean Segura. The D-backs’ offensive spark plug is currently riding an eight game hitting streak and he is a multi-hit/run/SB threat each and every night.
Other Second Basemen to Target – Matt Carpenter, Daniel Murphy, Neil Walker, Brian Dozier, Logan Forsythe, Whit Merrifield, Devon Travis
THIRD BASE
Danny Valencia, Oakland A’s – The notorious lefty killer himself is once again in play tonight. Valencia has made a living hitting off of southpaws, and he should have no problem ripping off a couple of hits against Tommy Milone this evening.
Jhonny Peralta, St. Louis Cardinals – If you plan to attack Pittsburgh Pirates’ rookie left-hander Steven Brault, Jhonny Peralta should be at the top of your list. Peralta has a long history of success versus southpaws and he should be in line for a big night.
Other Third Basemen to Target – Josh Donaldson, Evan Longoria, Maikel Franco, Jose Ramirez, Trevor Plouffe, Travis Shaw
SHORTSTOP
Francisco Lindor, Cleveland Indians – I spoke earlier about Anibal Sanchez and his struggles this season. Because Sanchez is not stretched out, he is unlikely to pitch deep in this game, regardless of how well he pitches tonight. This means Lindor and the Cleveland Indians bats will get an early look at that weak Detroit Tigers bullpen. Lindor has multi/hit/run/SB upside in this one.
Eduardo Nunez, Minnesota Twins – Sean Manaea has been better recently, but hitters from the right side of the plate are still having their way with him (.375 wOBA). The Minnesota Twins’ offensive catalyst contributes across the board offensively and I see a multi-hit game in his future.
Other Shortstops to Target – Troy Tulowitzki, Xander Bogaerts, Brad Miller, Freddy Galvis
OUTFIELDERS
Michael Saunders, Toronto Blue Jays – How do you not have at least some exposure to the Toronto Blue Jays lefties in this matchup? Left-handed hitters have absolutely murdered Chris Young this season (.527 wOBA, 55.1% hard-hit rate). The 37-year-old veteran has also struggled mightily on the road in 2016 (8.53 ERA, .311 BAA) and I think we see that continue tonight at the Rogers Centre. Hitting out of the clean-up spot, Saunders should drive in a few runs tonight.
Miguel Sano, Minnesota Twins – Sean Manaea is a talented young pitcher, but until he figures out right-handed hitters, we must take advantage. Sano has a .400 career wOBA against left-handed pitching and multi-homer upside in this matchup.
Arizona Diamondbacks Outfield – There is a ton of value and upside in the Arizona Diamondbacks outfield this evening. All three of Yasmany Tomas, Rickie Weeks Jr. and Brandon Drury have the splits in their favor and they make great value plays. Keep an eye out for whoever cracks the lineup and take advantage of their discounted prices.
Travis Jankowski, San Diego Padres – Let’s hope we see Travis Jankowski leading off for the San Diego Padres tonight. Jankowski not only gets a nice park boost, but he will also face a very hittable pitcher. Zack Godley has been wild throughout his time in both the Minor and Major Leagues, and walking the Padres speedster will lead to stolen bases and runs.
Other Outfielders to Target – Bryce Harper, Mookie Betts, Yoenis Cespedes, Ryan Braun, Odubel Herrera, Khris Davis, Stephen Piscotty, Corey Dickerson, Angel Pagan, Brock Holt