MLB Grind Down: Sunday, April 2nd

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.


Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.


NY Yankees at Tampa Bay – 1:10 PM ET

NY Yankees Tampa Bay
nyyankeesmlb Masahiro Tanaka tampabaymlb Chris Archer
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
TB -105 6.5
Stats wOBA HC% BB% K% Stats wOBA HC% BB% K%
SP vs. Left (2016) 0.280 32.7% 3.6% 20.3% SP vs. Left (2016) 0.302 32.3% 8.3% 27.8%
SP vs. Right (2016) 0.277 32.2% 5.3% 20.7% SP vs. Right (2016) 0.306 33.2% 7.5% 27.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

Masahiro Tanaka
masahiro-tanaka-100x75 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $8,700 Salary: $8,800
Salary Rank: 6 of 6 Salary Rank: 4 of 6
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
2016 31 3.79 3.07 20.5% 4.5% 10.9% 48.2% 31.0% 32.5%

Welcome to the first edition of this year’s MLB Grind Down. We are always trying to bring you the best possible information, so if there is anything that you’d like to see added or changed, feel free to leave a comment below. We start off with a small appetizer on Sunday (three-game slate) and will work our way up to the main course on Monday (12-game slate).

Masahiro Tanaka was once considered one of the best strikeout pitchers in baseball, but if his 2016 season was any indication of what we can expect this year, he will be a lot closer to the league average. Even though he may not possess an elite strikeout rate, Tanaka is still an above-average pitcher that should get off to a good start this season. The Rays had one of the highest strikeout rates of any team against right-handed pitching last season and have done very little to improve their offense. The Rays do have a few capable lefties in their lineup, but Tanaka held left-handed hitters to a .280 wOBA last season. Judging by the Consensus Value Rankings, he should garner low ownership on Opening Day.

Chris Archer
chris-archer-100x75 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $9,400 Salary: $9,200
Salary Rank: 4 of 6 Salary Rank: 3 of 6
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
2016 33 3.50 4.02 27.4% 7.9% 12.2% 47.8% 34.5% 32.8%

If you have played daily fantasy baseball before, you are likely familiar with the Chris Archer roller coaster. It is an exciting ride that features the high of all highs and the low of all lows. He pitches in a tough division, but has one of the highest strikeout rates of any pitcher in the majors. Judging by the difference between his SIERA and ERA last season, he was a bit unlucky. If we dive into the numbers, we can see that his HR/FB rate was at 16.2%, which is considerably higher than the season average. The Yankees’ lineup on Opening Day looks better than it did at this point last season, but Archer has as much strikeout upside as any pitcher in the slate. Whether you believe in BvP or not, Archer has a career 27.4% strikeout rate against the active hitters in the Yankees’ lineup.

Batter Grind Down

NY Yankees

The Yankees finally have some young talent in their lineup. It took a very long time, but the organization finally realized that they can’t win every year by signing every big free agent and trading away all of their prospects. With Gary Sanchez, Greg Bird, and Aaron Judge, Yankees’ fans have a lot to be excited about on the offensive side of the ball. A matchup against Chris Archer isn’t what we would consider exploitable, but there are limited options in a three game slate. In his career, Archer has allowed a higher wOBA and ISO to left-handed hitters, which brings Brett Gardner, Greg Bird, and Jacoby Ellsbury into play as secondary options. Archer’s struggles with the long ball also makes Gary Sanchez an intriguing play at catcher.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA ISO HC% BB% K% FD Pos. FD Salary DK Pos. DK Salary
1 Brett Gardner LEFT 0.331 0.108 26.4% 12.7% 16.0% OF $2,800 OF $3,700
2 Gary Sanchez RIGHT 0.451 0.351 40.2% 9.0% 22.3% C $3,400 C $4,500
3 Greg Bird LEFT 1B $2,400 1B $3,200
4 Matt Holliday RIGHT 0.336 0.192 35.8% 8.7% 17.1% OF $3,000 1B/OF $3,800
5 Jacoby Ellsbury LEFT 0.326 0.126 26.9% 10.0% 12.1% OF $2,900 OF $3,600
6 Starlin Castro RIGHT 0.311 0.161 30.5% 3.4% 19.6% 2B $2,500 2B/SS $3,300
7 Chase Headley SWITCH 0.315 0.159 33.2% 10.2% 26.7% 3B $2,500 3B $3,000
8 Ronald Torreyes RIGHT 0.317 0.150 20.4% 3.3% 10.0% SS $2,100 3B/SS $2,400
9 Aaron Judge RIGHT 0.291 0.203 50.0% 7.8% 41.6% OF $2,300 OF $3,500

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Brett Gardner, Gary Sanchez, Greg Bird, Jacoby Ellsbury

Stackability – ORANGE

Tampa Bay

We have an interesting situation here, as this would normally be a spot to fade the Rays. However, with only three games on the schedule, we are forced to take hitters in less than ideal matchups. If you look at Masahiro Tanaka splits, there isn’t a big difference between his wOBA, HC%, and K% against left and right-handed hitters. The left-handed bats of Kevin Kiermaier, Brad Miller, and Corey Dickerson carry some GPP appeal against a pitcher that did struggle with hard contact last season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA ISO HC% BB% K% FD Pos. FD Salary DK Pos. DK Salary
1 Kevin Kiermaier LEFT 0.313 0.156 30.4% 9.5% 16.5% OF $3,000 OF $3,400
2 Brad Miller LEFT 0.342 0.263 36.1% 7.3% 24.5% 2B $3,000 SS $3,600
3 Evan Longoria RIGHT 0.362 0.262 37.1% 6.0% 21.1% 3B $3,200 3B $4,000
4 Corey Dickerson LEFT 0.334 0.264 30.5% 6.7% 22.8% OF $2,800 OF $3,300
5 Matt Duffy RIGHT 0.285 0.100 28.2% 4.6% 15.3% SS $2,900 2B/3B $3,200
6 Steve Souza RIGHT 0.318 0.168 30.5% 7.3% 32.5% OF $2,700 OF $3,500
7 Logan Morrison LEFT 0.316 0.186 35.8% 8.9% 22.0% 1B $2,300 1B $3,200
8 Curt Casali RIGHT 0.244 0.125 32.7% 9.8% 31.0% C $2,200 C $2,500
9 Mallex Smith LEFT 0.353 0.158 22.0% 9.5% 20.9% OF $2,000 OF $3,700

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Kevin Kiermaier, Brad Miller, Corey Dickerson

Stackability – ORANGE


San Francisco at Arizona – 4:10 PM ET

San Francisco Arizona
sanfranciscomlb Madison Bumgarner arizonamlb Zack Greinke
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
SF -130 8.0
Stats wOBA HC% BB% K% Stats wOBA HC% BB% K%
SP vs. Left (2016) 0.223 25.2% 4.6% 33.3% SP vs. Left (2016) 0.315 31.6% 5.4% 21.1%
SP vs. Right (2016) 0.279 32.9% 6.2% 26.2% SP vs. Right (2016) 0.323 29.6% 7.1% 18.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

Madison Bumgarner
madison-bumgarner-100x75 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $10,900 Salary: $11,200
Salary Rank: 1 of 6 Salary Rank: 1 of 6
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
2016 34 3.36 2.74 27.5% 5.9% 11.5% 39.6% 41.5% 31.6%

Madison Bumgarner may not garner the same ownership levels as Clayton Kershaw, but when he is on the slate, he is always one of the highest owned pitchers. Bumgarner may be the most nonchalant pitcher in baseball, but he knows a thing or two about how to attack a hitter. He finished 2016 with a 3.36 SIERA and a strikeout rate of 27.5%. Targeting left-handed pitchers against the Diamondbacks in Chase Field isn’t something I do often, but I can make an exception in a three-game slate. Seven of the hitters in the Diamondbacks’ projected lineup had a strikeout rate of at least 20% against left-handed pitching last season. Even though he’s pitching on the road, Bumgarner is the biggest favorite in the slate.

Zack Greinke
zack-greinke-100x75 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $9,500 Salary: $7,700
Salary Rank: 3 of 6 Salary Rank: 6 of 6
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
2016 26 4.11 4.37 20.1% 6.2% 10.4% 45.9% 34.5% 30.7%

After having a career year in 2015, Zack Greinke came crashing back down to Earth in 2016. The worst part is that he signed a massive contract with the Diamondbacks before last season, so it’s safe to say that he didn’t live up to expectations. It sounds like his velocity has been down this spring, which is another concern to add to the list. If you are new to daily fantasy baseball, you will soon find out why we don’t target pitchers against the Giants. Their lineup is full of quality hitters that make great contact. Year in and year out, the Giants are ranked in the top ten in wOBA and in the bottom ten in strikeout rate. The Giants also take a lot of pitches, which drives up the pitch count and shortens the outing of the opposing pitcher. Of the six starting pitchers in this slate, Greinke is the safest fade.

Batter Grind Down

San Francisco

The Giants are the one team that I feel good about targeting in this slate. They have the best pitching matchup, they are playing in the most hitter-friendly ballpark, and they have the highest implied run total on the board. The Giants’ stacks will be out in full force, so if you are playing in tournaments, you may want to consider mixing in Eduardo Nunez, Joe Panik, and Jarrett Parker to help differentiate your lineups. Even on teams that are highly owned, the hitters in the bottom of the order tend to get overlooked. For cash games, we want to maximize our plate appearances. We can load up on the top five batters in the order.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA ISO HC% BB% K% FD Pos. FD Salary DK Pos. DK Salary
1 Denard Span LEFT 0.338 0.139 26.8% 8.5% 11.5% OF $2,800 OF $4,000
2 Brandon Belt LEFT 0.370 0.193 38.2% 16.7% 22.6% 1B $2,900 1B $4,200
3 Buster Posey RIGHT 0.324 0.134 35.7% 8.6% 11.4% C $3,300 1B/C $4,400
4 Hunter Pence RIGHT 0.348 0.129 27.6% 9.9% 21.4% OF $2,500 OF $4,300
5 Brandon Crawford LEFT 0.334 0.180 34.0% 10.1% 17.4% SS $2,400 SS $3,700
6 Eduardo Nunez RIGHT 0.326 0.129 26.7% 4.9% 15.4% 3B $2,700 3B/SS $4,100
7 Joe Panik LEFT 0.313 0.166 26.5% 10.3% 6.6% 2B $2,500 2B $3,900
8 Jarrett Parker LEFT 0.392 0.178 37.7% 15.2% 25.9% OF $2,000 OF $3,400
9 Madison Bumgarner LEFT 0.255 0.145 33.3% 12.5% 45.8% P $10,900 P $11,200

Elite Plays – Denard Span, Brandon Belt, Buster Posey, Hunter Pence, Brandon Crawford

Secondary Plays – Eduardo Nunez, Joe Panik, Jarrett Parker

Stackability – GREEN

Arizona

The easy route to take here would be to recommending fading all hitters against Madison Bumgarner. However, in a three game slate, we need to look for every possible edge in tournaments. A matchup against Bumgarner is obviously less than ideal, but he did allow a 32.9% hard contact rate and a significantly lower strikeout rate to right-handed hitters last season. A.J. Pollock missed most of last season with an injury, but had a .369 wOBA against right-handed pitching in 2015. Paul Goldschmidt and Yasmany Tomas both crush left-handed pitching, but have made little hard contact against Bumgarner in the past. You certainly shouldn’t be targeting the lefties in this lineup, as Bumgarner held left-handed hitters to a .223 wOBA, while striking them out at a clip of 33.3%.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA ISO HC% BB% K% FD Pos. FD Salary DK Pos. DK Salary
1 A.J. Pollock RIGHT 0.340 0.182 28.6% 8.3% 13.9% OF $3,500 OF $3,800
2 Chris Owings RIGHT 0.298 0.128 30.8% 3.7% 19.7% SS $2,400 OF/SS $3,300
3 Paul Goldschmidt RIGHT 0.362 0.183 35.8% 14.0% 21.6% 1B $4,300 1B $4,600
4 Jake Lamb LEFT 0.374 0.281 42.3% 10.1% 25.4% 3B $2,900 3B $3,700
5 Yasmany Tomas RIGHT 0.306 0.207 39.1% 4.3% 24.5% OF $2,900 OF $3,500
6 Brandon Drury RIGHT 0.334 0.164 31.6% 6.4% 21.2% 2B $2,500 2B/OF $3,300
7 David Peralta LEFT 0.309 0.173 35.6% 4.3% 20.9% OF $2,700 OF $3,500
8 Jeff Mathis RIGHT 0.219 0.067 25.0% 2.2% 27.2% C $2,100 C $2,100
9 Zack Greinke RIGHT 0.235 0.027 29.7% 4.8% 7.1% P $9,500 P $7,700

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – A.J. Pollock, Paul Goldschmidt, Yasmany Tomas

Stackability – ORANGE


Chicago Cubs at St. Louis – 8:35 PM ET

Chicago Cubs St. Louis
cubsmlb Jon Lester stlouismlb Carlos Martinez
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CHC -125 7.5
Stats wOBA HC% BB% K% Stats wOBA HC% BB% K%
SP vs. Left (2016) 0.237 30.3% 4.5% 26.8% SP vs. Left (2016) 0.322 33.7% 10.9% 19.1%
SP vs. Right (2016) 0.272 25.8% 7.1% 24.2% SP vs. Right (2016) 0.243 24.6% 6.0% 24.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

Jon Lester
jon-lester-100x75 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $10,000 Salary: $10,600
Salary Rank: 2 of 6 Salary Rank: 2 of 6
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
2016 32 3.61 2.44 24.8% 6.5% 10.3% 46.9% 32.8% 26.8%

We cap off Opening Day with a great matchup between the World Series Champions and a perennial playoff team in the Cardinals. Jon Lester is an above-average pitcher, but he’s not as good as his 2.44 ERA from last season suggests. He finished the 2016 season with a .256 BABIP and an 84.9% left on-base percentage, both of which are unsustainable. The Cardinals are a lot like the Giants in that we rarely want to target pitchers against them. The offseason acquisition of Dexter Fowler should help bolster their numbers against left-handed pitching this season. Lester has a knack of pitching well in big games and I wouldn’t put it past him to pitch well here, but he doesn’t have as much upside as Chris Archer or Madison Bumgarner.

Carlos Martinez
carlos-martinez-100x75 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $9,000 Salary: $8,300
Salary Rank: 5 of 6 Salary Rank: 5 of 6
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
2016 31 3.97 3.04 21.5% 8.7% 9.4% 56.4% 25.9% 29.6%

Martinez will get the nod on Opening Day, but chances are that nobody on the staff was itching to face the Cubs in their first start of the season. Chicago had the best offense in baseball a year ago and their young talent is only going to get better. Martinez is a pitcher that we will roster more often than we will target hitters against, but he is an easy fade in this three game slate. He has the highest walk rate of the six pitchers taking the mound and arguably the most difficult matchup. I will note that Martinez has been very good against right-handed hitters (.243 wOBA allowed last season), so if he can get through the likes of Ben Zobrist, Kyle Schwarber, and Anthony Rizzo, he will at the very least give his team a shot at picking up the win. For our purposes, Martinez is the fifth best pitching option in this slate.

Batter Grind Down

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs should be one of the best offenses in baseball again this season. While they open the season in a pitcher’s park, they have the second highest implied run total in the slate. As noted above, Carlos Martinez has been very effective against right-handed hitters, holding them to a .223 wOBA and a strikeout rate of 24.5% last season. Kris Bryant is the only right-handed hitter that we should even consider in this matchup. The real value comes from the other side of the plate. Martinez allowed a .322 wOBA to left-handed hitters last season and has less than a 2:1 strikeout to walk ratio. Ben Zobrist, Kyle Schwarber, and Anthony Rizzo all hit from the left side of the plate and are all worth a look in this slate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA ISO HC% BB% K% FD Pos. FD Salary DK Pos. DK Salary
1 Ben Zobrist SWITCH 0.357 0.182 32.9% 16.3% 11.1% 2B $3,100 2B/OF $4,000
2 Kyle Schwarber LEFT 0.138 0.000 100.0% 20.0% 40.0% OF $3,400 C/OF $4,300
3 Kris Bryant RIGHT 0.382 0.239 40.2% 9.9% 23.0% 3B $4,400 3B/OF $4,800
4 Anthony Rizzo LEFT 0.404 0.273 38.6% 11.7% 17.2% 1B $4,100 1B $4,900
5 Willson Contreras RIGHT 0.362 0.213 33.9% 10.8% 25.5% C $2,900 C/OF $3,400
6 Addison Russell RIGHT 0.306 0.155 28.5% 8.0% 22.2% SS $2,700 2B/SS $3,500
7 Jason Heyward LEFT 0.287 0.100 27.1% 8.4% 14.6% OF $2,700 OF $3,200
8 Javier Baez RIGHT 0.297 0.144 28.4% 1.3% 26.4% SS $2,400 2B/3B $3,700
9 Jon Lester LEFT 0.140 0.043 24.4% 7.0% 21.1% P $10,000 P $10,600

Elite Plays – Kyle Schwarber, Anthony Rizzo

Secondary Plays – Ben Zobrist

Stackability – YELLOW

St. Louis

The Cardinals are looking to challenge the Cubs this season and would love to set the tone early with a win on Opening Day. Even though their matchup against Jon Lester looks difficult on paper, there is one thing that always brings hitters into play with him on the mound – steals. Lester rarely even tries to hold runners. In 2016, he allowed the most stolen bases (72) of any pitcher and had the second highest stolen base rate per inning (17.7%) of any starter. The Cardinals aren’t known as a team that steals bases often, but Dexter Fowler should help their cause this season. If he gets on base, you know he is going to challenge his former teammate. Stephen Piscotty and Aledmys Diaz also have a little speed and can take advantage of the lefty/righty matchup. Matt Carpenter hits left-handed pitching well, but Lester is extremely tough on left-handed hitters. The lefty/lefty matchup is rarely one that I will target in MLB DFS.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA ISO HC% BB% K% FD Pos. FD Salary DK Pos. DK Salary
1 Dexter Fowler SWITCH 0.380 0.187 34.7% 13.2% 15.3% OF $3,400 OF $4,100
2 Aledmys Diaz RIGHT 0.312 0.145 27.7% 8.8% 13.0% SS $3,200 SS $3,800
3 Matt Carpenter LEFT 0.351 0.176 30.5% 15.1% 18.9% 1B $3,100 1B/3B $4,000
4 Stephen Piscotty RIGHT 0.406 0.255 27.7% 6.3% 22.3% OF $3,100 OF $3,800
5 Yadier Molina RIGHT 0.339 0.116 29.4% 6.5% 10.2% C $2,600 C $3,300
6 Jhonny Peralta RIGHT 0.235 0.130 26.2% 7.0% 17.0% 3B $2,600 3B/SS $3,100
7 Randal Grichuk RIGHT 0.344 0.248 36.1% 4.4% 30.9% OF $2,700 OF $3,600
8 Kolten Wong LEFT 0.292 0.091 29.1% 10.5% 14.0% 2B $2,400 2B $2,900
9 Carlos Martinez RIGHT 0.248 0.077 40.0% 0.0% 14.6% P $9,000 P $8,300

Elite Plays – Dexter Fowler, Stephen Piscotty

Secondary Plays – Aledmys Diaz, Randal Grichuk

Stackability – YELLOW

About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious