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MLB Grind Down: Sunday, September 25th

by Andrew Cook (louiescards) Last Updated 2016-09-26 01:55:59

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – One of the top stacks of the day, viable in cash games and GPPs
YELLOW – A viable stack option in most formats, specifically GPPs
ORANGE – There are better stacks out there, but playable in large GPPs
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs

NY Yankees at Toronto – 1:07 PM ET

NY Yankees Toronto
Article Image Michael Pineda Article Image Marco Estrada
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
TOR -148 9.0
Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K% Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K%
SP vs. Left (2016) 0.345 9 36.3% 28.5% SP vs. Left (2016) 0.266 10 27.8% 22.9%
SP vs. Right (2016) 0.324 15 30.5% 26.5% SP vs. Right (2016) 0.299 12 37.1% 22.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

Michael Pineda
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $8,400 Salary: $8,300
FPPG: 29.5 FPPG: 15.6
Pitcher Rating: 74.6 Pitcher Rank: 4
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 5 86.4 3.27 5.25 28.9% 7.7% 15.3% 45.3% 25.0% 39.1%
2016 30 94.5 3.34 4.89 27.4% 6.6% 14.3% 45.8% 31.9% 33.1%
2015 27 94.4 3.09 4.37 23.4% 3.1% 11.9% 48.2% 29.9% 30.1%

Michael Pineda: With Pineda’s pitcher rank sitting at fourth, that should give you a pretty good idea of just how bad the pitching is overall today. This is a Blue Jays squad that I rarely play a pitcher against and Pineda is not exactly the type of guy who gives us a ton of confidence. He has the strikeout upside, and if he can limit the runs, Pineda should produce a decent fantasy number here.

Home (2015-16):—ERA: 4.47 — K%: 26.0% — wOBA Allowed: 0.326
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 4.81 — K%: 24.8% — wOBA Allowed: 0.330

Marco Estrada
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $7,700 Salary: $8,800
FPPG: 32.0 FPPG: 17.3
Pitcher Rating: 58.7 Pitcher Rank: 16
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 5 91.6 4.87 6.93 20.0% 10.4% 10.9% 31.2% 45.5% 32.9%
2016 27 97.5 4.34 3.62 22.9% 9.1% 10.9% 33.3% 47.9% 32.3%
2015 28 104.0 4.64 3.13 18.1% 7.6% 9.9% 32.2% 52.3% 27.4%

Marco Estrada: When a guy has not been pitching very well and then takes a no-no into the seventh inning, it makes you wonder how bad people will chase that last performance. Even against the Yankees, Estrada is not a guy I want any part of, and he is far more likely to give up a run in the first inning than take a no-no into the seventh again.

Home (2015-16):—ERA: 3.35 — K%: 20.1% — wOBA Allowed: 0.283
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 3.38 — K%: 20.6% — wOBA Allowed: 0.275

Batter Grind Down

NY Yankees

Yankees: There has been a bit of a resurgence from this Yankees squad in the past month or so. Sure some of the agin vets are still struggling but Gary Sanchez has breathed life into this squad, and I actually do not mind rolling a mini stack in this one.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Brett Gardner LEFT 0.325 0.108 26.6% 0.329 OF $3,000 OF $3,700
2 Jacoby Ellsbury LEFT 0.330 0.133 27.5% 0.270 OF $2,900 OF $3,300
3 Gary Sanchez RIGHT 0.519 0.416 42.3% 0.483 C $4,300 C $4,900
4 Brian McCann LEFT 0.334 0.182 37.2% 0.408 C $2,900 C $3,600
5 Mark Teixeira SWITCH 0.269 0.159 31.9% 0.374 1B $2,600 1B $3,000
6 Didi Gregorius LEFT 0.311 0.181 25.8% 0.274 SS $2,800 SS $3,100
7 Ronald Torreyes RIGHT 0.335 0.152 22.5% 0.168 3B $2,300 3B/SS $2,300
8 Mason Williams LEFT 0.399 0.000 33.3% 0.362 OF $2,300
9 Donovan Solano RIGHT 0.413 0.429 33.3% 0.385 3B $2,200 3B/SS $2,300
Team Averages — 0.359 0.196 31.2% 0.339 — — — —

Elite Plays – Gary Sanchez

Secondary Plays – Brian McCann , Mark Teixeira , Jacoby Ellsbury

Stackability – Orange

Toronto

Blue Jays: If you have read my stuff long enough, then you already know that I like the Blue Jays for fantasy. This is a situation where people should be at least considering Pineda today, as a pitching option and that sets us up to load up with Toronto bats in tournaments.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Devon Travis RIGHT 0.364 0.173 30.8% 0.366 2B $3,700 2B $3,600
2 Josh Donaldson RIGHT 0.398 0.269 41.0% 0.318 3B $4,500 3B $4,700
3 Edwin Encarnacion RIGHT 0.378 0.278 38.7% 0.372 1B $4,200 1B $4,300
4 Jose Bautista RIGHT 0.353 0.206 40.5% 0.367 OF $4,000 OF $4,100
5 Russell Martin RIGHT 0.330 0.188 31.7% 0.284 C $3,000 C $3,400
6 Troy Tulowitzki RIGHT 0.323 0.202 34.6% 0.282 SS $3,400 SS $3,600
7 Michael Saunders LEFT 0.339 0.213 38.8% 0.232 OF $2,600 OF $3,100
8 Kevin Pillar RIGHT 0.291 0.110 26.4% 0.294 OF $2,900 OF $3,000
9 Ezequiel Carrera LEFT 0.262 0.097 25.6% 0.376 OF $2,300 OF $2,600
Team Averages — 0.338 0.193 34.2% 0.321 — — — —

Elite Plays – Edwin Encarnacion , Jose Bautista

Secondary Plays – Josh Donaldson , Devon Travis , Troy Tulowitzki

Stackability – Yellow

Kansas City at Detroit – 1:08 PM ET

Kansas City Detroit
Article Image Edinson Volquez Article Image Matt Boyd
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
DET -145 9.5
Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K% Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K%
SP vs. Left (2016) 0.340 10 33.4% 16.0% SP vs. Left (2016) 0.265 2 24.1% 14.9%
SP vs. Right (2016) 0.336 12 30.0% 16.9% SP vs. Right (2016) 0.326 14 30.7% 21.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

Edinson Volquez
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $6,300 Salary: $4,700
FPPG: 23.2 FPPG: 10.5
Pitcher Rating: 39.0 Pitcher Rank: 27
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 6 84.8 4.78 7.81 15.4% 8.1% 8.3% 44.6% 25.7% 35.9%
2016 32 95.9 4.60 5.25 16.4% 8.4% 8.5% 52.1% 28.1% 31.8%
2015 33 99.9 4.35 3.55 18.2% 8.5% 9.5% 46.0% 32.9% 30.4%

Edinson Volquez: There is not much to like about Volquez for DFS, and even with the pitching as weak as it is, he will not sniff a lineup of mine today against the Tigers. Sure, he pitched well in his last start, but there is no sense in chasing one start when we have a season worth of failure to go off of.

Home (2015-16):—ERA: 4.32 — K%: 17.1% — wOBA Allowed: 0.313
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 4.40 — K%: 17.6% — wOBA Allowed: 0.329

Matt Boyd
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $6,200 Salary: $7,200
FPPG: 25.0 FPPG: 12.7
Pitcher Rating: 55.3 Pitcher Rank: 20
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 4 93.3 4.27 6.10 19.8% 5.5% 12.1% 37.3% 44.8% 23.9%
2016 17 97.7 4.35 4.16 20.2% 7.1% 9.5% 38.8% 45.0% 29.5%
2015 12 83.6 4.83 7.53 17.1% 7.9% 8.2% 31.9% 51.9% 34.0%

Matt Boyd: Boyd is in the same boat as Volquez for me as they just simply have not proven to be effective enough to get us the points we need to succeed. The strikeouts are not high enough to make up for the fact that he is allowing runs to cross the plate this often.

Home (2015-16):—ERA: 4.68 — K%: 18.3% — wOBA Allowed: 0.326
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 6.25 — K%: 19.7% — wOBA Allowed: 0.381

Batter Grind Down

Kansas City

Royals: This offense simply does not offer enough for me to go crazy, but we do have a few guys that you can plug into lineups today. The main source of production for much of the season has been Kendrys Morales, with Sal Perez as a decent second option.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. LHP ISO vs. LHP HC% vs. LHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Billy Burns SWITCH 0.299 0.095 11.9% 0.373 OF $2,200 OF $2,700
2 Whit Merrifield RIGHT 0.379 0.125 48.2% 0.325 2B $2,900 2B/OF $3,800
3 Eric Hosmer LEFT 0.291 0.157 30.5% 0.269 1B $3,300 1B $3,100
4 Kendrys Morales SWITCH 0.368 0.215 37.0% 0.375 1B $3,100 1B/OF $3,900
5 Salvador Perez RIGHT 0.315 0.217 29.1% 0.207 C $3,000 C $2,800
6 Paulo Orlando RIGHT 0.352 0.189 24.8% 0.264 OF $3,000 OF $3,000
7 Alex Gordon LEFT 0.303 0.152 38.2% 0.255 OF $2,700 OF $2,600
8 Alcides Escobar RIGHT 0.261 0.102 26.8% 0.329 SS $2,500 SS $2,800
9 Christian Colon RIGHT 0.289 0.106 28.6% 0.313 2B $2,400 2B/3B $2,400
Team Averages — 0.317 0.151 30.6% 0.301 — — — —

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Kendrys Morales , Sal Perez , Paulo Orlando

Stackability – Red

Detroit

Tigers: A much more fantasy friendly lineup, the Tigers have several usable bats, and a stack is not a bad idea at all here. There is a lot of blue in the ISO category of the projected lineup, and that means upside.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Ian Kinsler RIGHT 0.335 0.183 34.3% 0.287 2B $4,000 2B $4,500
2 Cameron Maybin RIGHT 0.354 0.098 22.6% 0.367 OF $3,600 OF $4,300
3 Miguel Cabrera RIGHT 0.391 0.247 40.4% 0.368 1B $4,000 1B $5,400
4 Victor Martinez SWITCH 0.348 0.192 40.9% 0.288 C $3,600 1B $3,800
5 J.D. Martinez RIGHT 0.403 0.246 39.2% 0.352 OF $3,300 OF $4,000
6 Justin Upton RIGHT 0.311 0.198 38.0% 0.314 OF $3,400 OF $4,300
7 Erick Aybar SWITCH 0.281 0.087 22.9% 0.318 SS $2,500 SS $3,200
8 Jarrod Saltalamacchia SWITCH 0.298 0.208 39.8% 0.117 C $2,100 C $3,200
9 Jose Iglesias RIGHT 0.261 0.050 12.4% 0.275 SS $2,500 SS $2,800
Team Averages — 0.331 0.168 32.3% 0.298 — — — —

Elite Plays – Miguel Cabrera , J.D. Martinez

Secondary Plays – Ian Kinsler , Cameron Maybin , Victor Martinez

Stackability – Green

Boston at Tampa Bay – 1:10 PM ET

Boston Tampa Bay
Article Image Eduardo Rodriguez Article Image Jake Odorizzi
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
BOS -120 8.0
Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K% Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K%
SP vs. Left (2016) 0.338 1 18.3% 20.7% SP vs. Left (2016) 0.261 10 33.3% 26.1%
SP vs. Right (2016) 0.316 15 30.0% 18.4% SP vs. Right (2016) 0.334 17 33.9% 17.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

Eduardo Rodriguez
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $7,000 Salary: $6,800
FPPG: 22.4 FPPG: 11.4
Pitcher Rating: 57.6 Pitcher Rank: 18
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 4 91.5 5.76 4.57 11.6% 8.4% 9.0% 37.0% 49.3% 23.0%
2016 18 90.8 4.73 4.84 18.9% 8.0% 10.1% 31.9% 46.0% 27.7%
2015 21 95.7 4.16 3.85 18.8% 7.1% 7.8% 43.0% 33.4% 31.4%

Eduardo Rodriguez: It has not been the greatest of seasons for Rodriguez, but he is coming off of a pretty solid game against the Orioles. The task ahead is one he might have nightmares about, however, as he allowed nine runs on 11 hits the last time he was on the mound in Tampa. He makes for a pretty solid secondary option on multiple pitcher sites today, but keep exposure to a level that represents his risk.

Home (2015-16):—ERA: 4.74 — K%: 17.9% — wOBA Allowed: 0.328
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 3.81 — K%: 19.8% — wOBA Allowed: 0.295

Jake Odorizzi
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $7,900 Salary: $6,400
FPPG: 28.6 FPPG: 15.2
Pitcher Rating: 53.6 Pitcher Rank: 23
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 5 98.2 5.05 4.20 17.1% 8.1% 8.4% 32.2% 50.0% 38.5%
2016 31 101.1 4.27 3.73 21.0% 6.9% 9.4% 36.0% 45.2% 33.7%
2015 28 98.4 3.90 3.35 21.4% 6.6% 10.1% 37.3% 40.6% 27.0%

Jake Odorizzi: I simply do not like pitching guys against this Red Sox lineup. It seems even when the strikeouts are coming early Boston finds a way to put the runs on the board ruining it and creating a what could have been scenario. Odorizzi has been pretty good since that blowup against Baltimore, but I do not trust him enough to plug him in against Boston.

Home (2015-16):—ERA: 3.16 — K%: 23.3% — wOBA Allowed: 0.283
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 3.93 — K%: 19.2% — wOBA Allowed: 0.316

Batter Grind Down

Boston

Red Sox: They just keep on hitting, and it does not seem to matter who is in their path. Odorizzi can be a tough pitcher and this is not necessarily an ideal park to stack hitters, but Boston has more than enough talent to outweigh those factors.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Dustin Pedroia RIGHT 0.359 0.129 33.2% 0.293 2B $3,000 2B $3,600
2 Xander Bogaerts RIGHT 0.339 0.147 29.1% 0.329 SS $3,900 SS $4,000
3 David Ortiz LEFT 0.448 0.365 46.9% 0.442 1B $3,900 1B $5,600
4 Mookie Betts RIGHT 0.388 0.216 33.6% 0.370 OF $4,100 OF $5,400
5 Hanley Ramirez RIGHT 0.345 0.189 37.6% 0.547 1B $4,100 1B $4,400
6 Travis Shaw LEFT 0.331 0.184 36.3% 0.212 3B $3,000 1B/3B $3,200
7 Jackie Bradley Jr. LEFT 0.387 0.269 39.5% 0.386 OF $3,500 OF $4,300
8 Bryan Holaday RIGHT 0.263 0.137 31.6% 1.059 C $2,200 C $2,300
9 Brock Holt LEFT 0.334 0.159 25.0% 0.327 OF $3,000 OF $3,100
Team Averages — 0.355 0.199 34.8% 0.441 — — — —

Elite Plays – David Ortiz , Mookie Betts

Secondary Plays – Hanley Ramirez , Travis Shaw , Jackie Bradley Jr.

Stackability – Yellow

Tampa Bay

Rays: This is a squad that does not have the worst season stats, but at the same time, we struggle to find the bats we want in this situation. Anytime a lefty is taking the hill for the opposition, you have to at least consider Evan Longoria, but outside of him I do not have a ton of confidence in the Rays today.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. LHP ISO vs. LHP HC% vs. LHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Logan Forsythe RIGHT 0.367 0.220 36.7% 0.311 2B $3,000 2B $4,300
2 Kevin Kiermaier LEFT 0.341 0.200 35.7% 0.369 OF $3,500 OF $4,000
3 Evan Longoria RIGHT 0.329 0.214 32.7% 0.364 3B $3,400 3B $5,000
4 Brad Miller LEFT 0.308 0.156 26.5% 0.326 SS $3,600 1B/SS $4,000
5 Mikie Mahtook RIGHT 0.212 0.057 24.4% 0.157 OF $2,200 OF $2,300
6 Nick Franklin SWITCH 0.243 0.081 14.3% 0.243 2B $2,800 1B/OF $3,400
7 Corey Dickerson LEFT 0.262 0.076 40.3% 0.453 OF $3,200 OF $4,000
8 Alexei Ramirez RIGHT 0.325 0.107 26.3% 0.294 SS $2,200 SS $2,900
9 Bobby Wilson RIGHT 0.341 0.154 28.9% 0.349 C $2,100 C $2,500
Team Averages — 0.303 0.141 29.5% 0.318 — — — —

Elite Plays – Evan Longoria

Secondary Plays – Logan Forsythe

Stackability – Red

Want to discuss strategy for today’s games? Head over to the RotoGrinders Forums

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About the Author

louiescards
Andrew Cook (louiescards)

Andrew “LouiesCards” Cook is a DFS veteran who has been playing since 2009. You will see him grinding MLB, NBA, and NFL with a main focus on DraftKings. Over the years he has held several roles at RotoGrinders helping write articles and features, both in-front and behind-the-scenes. Andrew was able to throw the first pitch out at a St. Louis Cardinals game, courtesy of DraftKings. You can follow Andrew on twitter @louiescards