NFL Advanced Matchup Plays: Week 1
Football is back!
And that means I am back doing this column for RotoGrinders.
Each week I’ll be using ProFootballFocus’ in-depth stats and grades to uncover the best DFS plays of the main slate (on both DraftKings and FanDuel).
As an added bonus, I’ll try to pop back in here on Saturdays to offer some additional analysis.
What do I mean by that? Typically, I’ll list a few more plays at each position in a separate subcategory (I’ll never delete anything). For instance, this week, at the tight end position, you’ll get a sentence or two on Rob Gronkowski, Ricky Seals-Jones, Delanie Walker, and Tyler Eifert (the other tight ends I’m considering). Or at the quarterback position, I’ll list a few higher-priced quarterbacks to target (you won’t need the savings from Dalton on Taylor on every lineup). At the end of the column you might see an add-on discussing general strategy on the slate as a whole or plays I wrote up that I may have begun to sour on. Anyway, check back Saturday to see what I mean.
Note 1: All numbers in parentheses refer to a player’s salary rank on each site.
Note 2: All references to expected fantasy points can be explained here.
Quarterbacks
Andy Dalton @ Colts [FD: QB14, DK:QB12]
The Colts have our worst-rated secondary this season, but, of course, there’s more to a defense than just pass coverage. For instance, there’s also the pass rush, where Indianapolis’ first-quarter defense ranked dead-last in pressures forced per dropback this preseason. Last year, Indianapolis ranked fifth-worst in schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game allowed to quarterbacks, but now with a healthy Andrew Luck likely keeping the score close, I’d expect that ranking to climb.
Dalton’s supporting cast looks better this year as well, with a healthy John Ross and Tyler Eifert, as well as a revamped offensive line after adding a first-round center (Billy Price) and left tackle Cordy Glenn. A.J. Green is the obvious stacking candidate and I agree he’s a top play. Indianapolis was actually a very tough matchup for WR1s last year but I suspect that had far more to do with former DC Ted Monachino’s scheming than anything else. Ross and Eifert, at depressed salaries, are very strong plays as well.
Tyrod Taylor vs. Steelers [FD: QB16, DK: QB18]
Pittsburgh ran a zone coverage defense on 80 percent of their defensive plays last year (second-most). Over the past three seasons, of 32 qualifying quarterbacks, Taylor ranks fourth-best in fantasy points per dropback against zone defense. Against man defense, he ranks sixth-worst. Over this span, Taylor also ranks 12th among quarterbacks in fantasy points per game, and is now in a far more (fantasy) hospitable environment in Cleveland. Cleveland ranked first in dropbacks per game (42.5) last season, compared to Buffalo’s eighth-fewest (35.6). His most-targeted wide receivers were Zay Jones and Deonte Thompson (both graded bottom-35 last year), who pale in comparison to Josh Gordon and Jarvis Landry (both graded top-25).
You may not need the savings with Taylor this week but I think he is the best quarterback value the slate. ESPN Projection Czar Mike Clay actually has Taylor as the No. 2 quarterback in his projections this week, after ranking Pittsburgh’s defensive unit only 23rd-“best” earlier in the week. With weather concerns in this contest, Jarvis Landry is likely your best stacking option (though, of course, you should also run it back with Antonio Brown).
Other Quarterbacks & Notes: In DFS I almost always pay down at quarterback. Even this week, with so much value, I still think I’m paying down on all of my main lineups. I will take some shots on the expensive guys where the stacks make sense but outside of that I’m sticking with the cheaper quarterbacks… The weather in the Cleveland game doesn’t necessarily hurt Taylor. Per Scott Spratt, his projection actually went up. Though, I’m less optimistic. The game total dropped five points and scoring as a whole should plummet… There’s really a lot of cheap QBs to like this week. I do still like Dalton but he is massively owned. I think, once ownership is factored in (per FanShareSports Dalton has 29 more tags than the next-closest quarterback), I like Case Keenum and Philip Rivers just as much as Dalton… Sam Bradford, Deshaun Watson, and Kirk Cousins are worth some tournament shots…
Running Backs
James Conner @ Browns [FD: RB48, DK: RB34]
If Bell is inactive for Week 1, don’t overthink this. When Bell has missed time, his primary back-up has been used in an almost identical fashion to how Bell was used. Since 2015, Bell’s primary back-up has averaged 21.0 fantasy points per game and 23.7 opportunities per game across the 15 games he’s missed. For perspective, those numbers would have ranked third-best and fifth-best, respectively, among running backs last year. Conner was also used as a bell-cow this preseason. On 56 snaps, he totaled 19 carries and seven targets for 161 yards and a score. He also ranked as PFF’s highest-graded running back this preseason, of 133-qualifying running backs.
Alvin Kamara vs. Buccaneers [FD: RB2, DK: RB3]
Last season, in his rookie year, Kamara put together what was arguably the most-efficient running back season of all time. He finished fourth at the position in fantasy points per game, despite getting out-snapped (569 to 466) and out-touched (288 to 201) by teammate Mark Ingram. Though, New Orleans did start to use Kamara as more of a bell cow towards the end of their season. In their final four games (postseason included), Kamara averaged 17.4 expected fantasy points per game to Mark Ingram’s 8.7. In any case, Ingram is suspended and the only other active running back on the roster joined the team less than a week ago. The matchup looks good as well, considering Tampa Bay gave up the fifth-most fantasy points per game to running backs last year. And, well, yeah – this one is easy.
Melvin Gordon vs. Chiefs [FD: RB5, DK: RB7]
I spent a great deal of time trying to decide whether to write up my guy Christian McCaffrey or Gordon here, but ultimately am going with Gordon. In either case, I’m confident this is the cheapest both running backs will be all year. Gordon’s volume was much better last year than anyone seems to realize – and it should be even better this year. Gordon played in all 16 games last year but was listed as questionable six separate times. In those games he averaged only 12.6 expected fantasy points per game but 19.4 (second-best, tied with Todd Gurley) in all other games. This offseason, HC Anthony Lynn told Dan Graziano of ESPN, that “one of his regrets in his first year was not getting Gordon more work in the passing game.”
Keenan Allen is in a tough matchup (detailed below), Hunter Henry is on I.R. (ideally opening up more check-down passes for Gordon), and the team’s offensive line looks significantly improved from a season ago. The Chiefs have Mike Clay’s fifth-worst rated defense and the Chargers have good projected game-script (-3.5) and the fourth-highest implied total of the slate (25.75).
Other Running Backs & Notes: James Conner is still the nuts play despite the weather and I think its silly people are trying to talk themselves off of him… I love Kamara though his projected ownership dwarfs David Johnson’s, which makes Johnson a great tournament play (he was already a great tournament play)… After that I’m trying to fit in Christian McCaffrey and Melvin Gordon on almost all of my lineups. With Greg Olsen questionable, McCaffrey is nearly neck-and-neck with Gordon… After them I do like Kareem Hunt and Leonard Fournette but, for whatever reason, they aren’t on too many of my lineups. A similar but weaker case could be made for Lamar Miller… Zeke is going to be far lower-owned than he otherwise should which makes him a good contrarian play… Rex Burkhead is a good to great play, despite conflicting reports on injury/snap count. He has a massive touchdown expectation this week. My lineups without one of him or Gronkowski scare me – and there’s a lot (maybe too many) of them. James White is also a good to great play on DraftKings… The weather in Cleveland has pushed Carlos Hyde firmly into consideration. He’s a strong value despite projected game-script… I like but don’t love Alex Collins. He’s a great play but not a must-start… LeSean McCoy makes sense from a strategy-standpoint on DraftKings but I doubt I’ll be getting that cute with my own lineups…
Wide Receivers
Antonio Brown @ Browns [FD: WR1, DK: WR1]
Brown is the highest-priced wide receiver on the slate, but, on DraftKings, he’s $550 cheaper than his 2017 average. Cleveland has our third-worst-ranked secondary, and Brown has historically smashed Cleveland, hitting at least 100 yards in five of his last six contests against them. To further illustrate, he averages 29.6 fantasy points per game in his last four games against them, or 27.5 in his last three road games against them.
Bell’s absence also gives Brown a sizeable boost. In games with Roethlisberger active, since 2014, Brown averages 13.7 targets and 28.4 fantasy points per game in the 13 games Bell has been absent. For perspective, that’s +7.3 fantasy points per game and +3.0 targets per game more than in games Bell was active. A.J. Green and Michael Thomas are also excellent plays in their own right but it’s too hard not to just jam Brown into every lineup, I think, even with weather concerns factored in.
Larry Fitzgerald vs. Redskins [FD: WR11, DK: WR10]
Fellow slot superstar Keenan Allen projects to be massively owned this week but that makes little sense to me when he’s slated to run ~70 percent of his routes against our No. 1-graded slot cornerback from a season ago (Kendall Fuller). Instead, I’ll be looking at Fitzgerald who is $900 cheaper on DraftKings and $700 cheaper on FanDuel. Fitzgerald ranks fifth, seventh, and ninth among wide receivers in fantasy points over the past three seasons. Arizona has lost 271 targets this offseason and, outside of running back David Johnson, Fitzgerald is the only other active player on the roster with 35 or more receptions in a single season.
Fitzgerald ran 62 percent of his routes from the slot last year. Since entering the league, Sam Bradford has targeted slot wide receivers on 24.8 percent of his aimed throws, or fourth-most over this stretch. Playing predominantly in the slot will be especially beneficial this week. Washington’s primary slot cornerback (since losing Fuller) is Fabian Moreau. Moreau is in his sophomore season and has just 59 career regular season snaps under his belt. On that small sample, Moreau ranked third-worst in fantasy points per route allowed (of 158-qualifying cornerbacks) last year.
Emmanuel Sanders vs. Seahawks [FD: WR27, DK: WR26]
Over the past three seasons, Sanders has ranked 29th (2017), 10th, and 17th in expected fantasy points per game and 51st, 20th, and 16th in actual fantasy points per game. 2017 looks poor in comparison, but he also played hurt for the majority of the year. New arrival Case Keenum graded out eighth-best among quarterbacks last year and should be a clear upgrade to a quarterback unit that finished 31st, 21st, and 31st in passer rating over this stretch.
Sanders has easily been Keenum’s favorite target this preseason, comprising a whopping 43.8 percent (14 of 32) of Keenum’s total aimed throws (most among all receivers). This preseason, Sanders has also been in the slot on 64 percent of his routes (as opposed to 28 percent last year). (Keep in mind, slot wide receiver Adam Thielen finished eighth in fantasy points with Keenum last year.) That’s especially good news this week, as Seattle gave up the sixth-most fantasy points to slot wide receivers last year. On top of that, this offseason, Seattle has lost three of their five highest-graded defenders from a season ago (Sheldon Richardson, Kam Chancellor, and Sherman) as well as Michael Bennett (who was their second-highest-graded defender in 2016).
Other Wide Receivers & Notes: I’m legitimately reducing Brown exposure based on these (now projected) 40 mph winds and torrential rain. He’s now in a near-even tier amongst A.J. Green and Michael Thomas. The Colts have our worst ranked secondary. The Buccaneers have our second-worst-ranked secondary and now will be without their highest-graded cornerback from a season ago (Brent Grimes). Thomas then wins in matchup (and projected ownership) but game-script is more of a concern… Keelan Cole is a great play but I don’t think must-play. I actually like (but don’t love) DeDe Westbrook quite a bit too. I’d much rather own Kenny Stills to Cole… Stills ranked 23rd in targets last year, despite Jarvis Landry and DeVante Parker combining to total 251 targets. Parker is out for Week 1 and Landry is on Cleveland. I actually still really love Landry despite the weather. His low aDOT style of play is better suited for the wind and rain than any other receiver. Taylor has locked onto him all preseason and in practice… Bruce Ellington is a great play if Will Fuller is out. New England will sell out to stop DeAndre Hopkins and will at least have top-12-ranked cornerback Stephon Gillmore shadow. DeShaun Watson targeted Bruce Ellington on 8 of his 15 throws this preseason. New England surrendered the most fantasy points per game to slot wide receivers last year… I really like Stefon Diggs this week against a very banged up and slow Richard Sherman. As outlined on my twitter timeline, Diggs is one of the most cornerback-sensitive wide receivers of the past decade. If this is Sherman of 2016, he’s in trouble, but I don’t think this is that iteration of Sherman… Chris Hogan is a great play for all of all of the reasons every other fantasy analyst has told you he’s a great play… Marquise Goodwin is an amazing play if Xavier Rhodes is out. If he plays, Pierre Garcon is a pretty good play… I like Michael Crabtree’s touchdown expectation and as a contrarian-pivot off of Alex Collins, though his salary is a bit high… Danny Amendola, Josh Doctson, and Tyrell Williams are a few under-discussed wide receivers I think I like more than most.
Tight Ends
Jack Doyle vs. Bengals [FD: TE8, DK: TE9]
Doyle played on Andrew Luck’s first two dropbacks in Indianapolis’ final game of the preseason, and then sat out for the rest of that game. Up until that point, Doyle ran a route on 27 of Luck’s 28 dropbacks and saw six targets. The next-closest player saw four, and Eric Ebron ran just nine routes and saw just two targets. Doyle has our best tight end matchup of the week and Cincinnati ranked fifth-worst in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to tight ends last year. There is some cause for concern regarding Luck’s atypically low average depth of target (5.7 yards) during the preseason, but that should only help Doyle, who has a 5.8-yard aDOT over the past two seasons, compared to T.Y. Hilton’s 13.5.
Jordan Reed @ Cardinals [FD: TE7, DK: TE7]
Over the last three seasons (including postseason), Reed has averaged 47.8 snaps per game and 15.3 fantasy points per game. If we exclude all games he played fewer than 30 snaps, that number jumps to 17.7 fantasy points per game. For perspective, 17.7 fantasy points per game would have led all tight ends and ranked fifth among wide receivers last year. Even with the same (min. 30 snaps) threshold applied for all tight ends over this stretch, Reed still would have come out on top over names like Rob Gronkowski (17.6), Travis Kelce (13.9), Zach Ertz (13.5), and Greg Olsen (13.2). The quarterback change (from Kirk Cousins to Alex Smith) isn’t a concern for me, considering, of 44 qualifying quarterbacks this past decade, only Tony Romo (25.8 percent) has targeted tight ends more frequently than Smith’s 25.2 percent.
What does all this mean? Well, basically, if I was sold on Reed being 100 percent, I’d have him in every single lineup. Unfortunately, I’m not sure I am. Two weeks ago, when asked about Reed’s status, HC Jay Gruden said, “he’s getting there.” Earlier this week, Gruden said the snap count for Reed “could vary” but he expects him to play “quite a bit”. This situation feels murky enough to keep Reed in consideration as a top play but likely not as a must-play.
Other Tight Ends & Notes: I really love Jack Doyle. I’m still torn on Jordan Reed who is either a great play or the best play. Rob Gronkowski has massive touchdown- and target-upside given the lack of receiving options on the team. I think he might finish inside the top-five wide receivers this week, which means he’s also egregiously priced. Ricky Seals-Jones is a great play for all of the reasons I’ve loved him in redraft leagues and the matchup is soft as well. Tyler Eifert is a strong play as well but draws similar concerns to Reed. Delanie Walker has an amazing matchup this week but a lingering toe injury has me mostly looking elsewhere. Ryan Griffin and Nick Vannett are vaguely in play too, I suppose.
Defense
Baltimore Ravens [FD: DEF1, DK: DEF1]
Duh! Last year Baltimore’s defense averaged 13.3 fantasy points per game, or what was the fourth-most by any team defense this past decade. Starting Bills QB Nathan Peterman has completed 24 of 49 career passes for 252 yards, two touchdowns, and five interceptions. Buffalo has lost three starting offensive linemen this year (LT Cordy Glenn, LG Richie Incognito, C Eric Wood) and their first-quarter preseason offense has ranked bottom-three in pressures and sacks allowed. Baltimore is favored by 7.5 at home (home field advantage is big for Baltimore), and this game also features 16mph winds and a 54 percent chance of precipitation at kickoff. The weather and game-script, in addition to helping the defense, sets up nicely for RB Alex Collins as an ideal stacking option. Collins averaged 15.1 fantasy points per game in victories last season and is priced as the RB15 or lower on both sites. However, because he never dominated near-end-zone rushing work at any point last year (even in blowouts), he isn’t one of my top plays without the stack. Though, Baltimore’s defense does appear to be worth forcing into lineups.