NFL Grind Down: Week 17 - Page Two
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Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers
| Cleveland Browns | Pittsburgh Steelers | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 44 | 18.5 | -7 | 44 | 25.5 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 16.0 | 31 | 27 | 24 | Offense | 24.8 | 12 | 10 | 11 | |
| Opp. Defense | 20.2 | 9 | 20 | 6 | Opp. Defense | 28.3 | 31 | 19 | 31 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 5 | 25 | 3 | 16 | Cleveland Browns | 32 | 31 | 13 | 32 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Pryor | 130 | 70 | 4 | 913 | Brown | 154 | 106 | 12 | 1,284 | |
| Coleman | 64 | 28 | 3 | 373 | Heyward-Bey | 15 | 5 | 2 | 68 | |
| Hawkins | 48 | 28 | 3 | 315 | Coates | 49 | 21 | 2 | 435 | |
| Barnidge | 76 | 50 | 1 | 572 | Green | 34 | 18 | 1 | 304 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: Ben Roethlisberger (PIT QB) – Out (Rest) / Le’Veon Bell (PIT RB) – Out (Rest) / Antonio Brown (PIT WR) – Out (Rest) / Ladarius Green (PIT TE) – Out (Concussion)
CLE Matchup Rating: 4.5
PIT Matchup Rating: 7.0
Cleveland Browns
Playoff Positioning: Eliminated from playoff contention.
Passing Game: The Browns won a game! The Browns won a game! They could feasibly win a second game to close out the season, as this contest means nothing to the Steelers on the other side. That’s still not enough to get me to consider whoever starts at quarterback here. Robert Griffin III is not practicing with his concussion, and it sounds like Cody Kessler might draw the start. Kessler has shown an unwillingness to take shots downfield, and his presence would eliminate any appeal for guys like Corey Coleman and Terrelle Pryor. You can do better with your quarterback and receiver options on a full slate of games.
Running Game: If you think the Steelers are going to mail it in for this game, Isaiah Crowell is probably the guy you want to look at from the Browns. He’s not an exciting fantasy pick, but he did score two touchdowns against the Chargers in last week’s victory. If the Browns stay close in this game, he should garner a healthy dose of snaps, though he hasn’t played on more than 60% of the snaps in any game this season. Crowell is a bit too expensive for my liking at $6,100 on FanDuel, but he’s more of an option at $4,400 on DraftKings. There is some risk here, though, as it’s the Browns we are talking about.
The Takeaway: Cleveland should be riding high after getting a win last week over San Diego. They also draw a matchup against a Pittsburgh team that won’t be motivated for this game. If you want to consider anyone, Isaiah Crowell is definitely the best option. It sounds like Cody Kessler is going to start at quarterback, and I want no part of that passing game if that’s the case.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Playoff Positioning: Clinched AFC North. Locked into #3 seed in AFC. Game is 100% meaningless.
Passing Game: This is one of the most unpredictable spots of the week. The Steelers have nothing to play for, and they could very well beat the Browns if they trotted out the second unit for this game. I don’t expect Ben Roethlisberger to play. If he sits out, you can certainly make a case for Landry Jones. He draws pretty much the same scenario as E.J. Manuel on the previous page in that he is a bad quarterback in a great matchup. The Steelers have a slightly higher team team total and are playing at home, so I would lean toward Landry as my preferred pick of the two. That, of course, is assuming that he starts. If Roethlisberger starts and plans to play for a quarter or something, Landry falls out of the conversation. It sounds like the Steelers also might rest Antonio Brown in this game, but who knows where the targets will go with all the inconsistent peripheral options the team has. Eli Rogers would make the most sense as the safest option.
Running Game: It makes absolutely no sense for the Steelers to play their workhorse back in this game. Le’Veon Bell has seen absolutely monster workloads this season, and he likely won’t suit up for this one. The logical pivot that people will look to is DeAngelo Williams, who was fantastic in the early season games that Bell missed due to suspension. However, I think that might be a mistake. Williams is still working his way back from a knee injury, and the team will want him to be insurance for Bell in the playoffs. I expect most of the work to fall to Fitzgerald Touissaint, who is minimum salary on FanDuel and $4,300 on DraftKings. Keep an eye on the news out of Pittsburgh, and Toussaint is an elite value if he ends up drawing a start.
The Takeaway: Assuming the Steelers rest the Killer B’s of Big Ben, Bell, and Brown in this game, we will have plenty of value to consider in a great matchup against the Browns. Landry Jones, Eli Rogers, and possibly Fitzgerald Touissaint could become very intriguing options. Check back later in the week for an update here.
WEDNESDAY UPDATE – The Steelers have formally announced the Roethlisberger, Bell, and Brown will sit out this game. That’s no surprise. We may get some clarity on the depth chart later in the week as far as which backups may see the most work.
Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
| Carolina Panthers | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.5 | 46.5 | 20 | -6.5 | 46.5 | 26.5 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 23.5 | 14 | 19 | 12 | Offense | 22.5 | 18 | 15 | 22 | |
| Opp. Defense | 23.5 | 17 | 23 | 23 | Opp. Defense | 25.7 | 27 | 32 | 4 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 18 | 23 | 12 | 11 | Carolina Panthers | 22 | 14 | 25 | 30 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Benjamin | 111 | 57 | 6 | 848 | Evans | 160 | 91 | 11 | 1,256 | |
| Ginn | 88 | 50 | 4 | 683 | Humphries | 70 | 45 | 2 | 528 | |
| Funchess | 58 | 23 | 4 | 371 | Shepard | 33 | 21 | 2 | 312 | |
| Olsen | 125 | 77 | 3 | 1,051 | Brate | 82 | 57 | 8 | 660 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: Cam Newton (CAR QB) – Questionable but expected to play (Shoulder) / Greg Olsen (CAR TE) – Questionable (Elbow) / Jonathan Stewart (CAR RB) – Questionable (Foot)
CAR Matchup Rating: 5.5
TB Matchup Rating: 6.5
Carolina Panthers
Playoff Positioning: Eliminated from playoff contention.
Passing Game: The awful season continues for Cam Newton. He was abysmal in last week’s loss to the Falcons, completing just 42% of his passes, throwing for less than 200 yards to go along with a pair of interceptions, and once again failing to score a rushing touchdown. He has no rushing touchdowns in the last four games. Newton is off the fantasy radar against a Tampa Bay team that has been better defensively of late and is clinging to (extremely) faint playoff hopes. Greg Olsen continues to rack up targets and is on the high-end tight end radar, but Tampa Bay ranks 4th in DVOA against tight ends this year. That said, he did have nine catches for 181 yards in their first meeting. He is the only pass catcher I will consider here.
THURSDAY UPDATE – My thoughts are changing rapidly here. Greg Olsen missed practice again on Thursday, and he sounds like he might not be able to go in this one, or at least he won’t be at full strength. Devin Funchess is also a long shot to play. Kelvin Benjamin suddenly becomes much more appealing in a matchup against the scuffling Vernon Hargreaves. I don’t mind Benjamin as a GPP play at all.
Running Game: Game flow took Jonathan Stewart out of the game last week, so we can’t fault him for a poor performance. However, it is another example of how low his floor can be. In a meaningless road game for the Panthers, I just can’t envision myself taking that route in Week 17. I expect Tampa Bay to win this game, and you may see a similar game flow to what we witnessed last Sunday. Fading Stewart generally doesn’t hurt you, as he is never highly owned, and he doesn’t have the upside to put up GPP-winning type performances.
SATURDAY UPDATE – Stewart might see limited snaps with an injury, and the entire Carolina backfield is a spot you don’t need to mess with here.
The Takeaway: There’s not much to get excited about with the Panthers checking in as six point road underdogs in this contest. Cam Newton has had his worst season as a pro quarterback, and the team has nothing to play for in this game. If healthy, Greg Olsen is the best Carolina player worth consideration this week. However, Kelvin Benjamin has some GPP appeal and may be cash game viable if Olsen is out.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Playoff Positioning: The Buccaneers still have a 0.0016% chance to be the #6 seed in the NFC. Actually, it’s higher now since the first two scenarios listed in that tweet have already occurred in their favor. Lookout, world! The Bucs will play to win here, but they aren’t making the playoffs. They need a TIE in the Giants/Redskins game in order for this scenario to come to fruition, along with lots of other help.
Passing Game: Since they are still technically alive, we can safely assume that the Bucs will attempt to do everything in their power to win this game. Carolina does have a decent pass defense that ranks 12th in DVOA, but they have struggled against top end wide receivers. Mike Evans had a 6/89/1 line in the first meeting between these two teams, and he could have had another touchdown if not for a drop in that game. Tampa Bay has struggled over the last two weeks, but motivation is a huge factor this week. We have to give a boost to players on teams with something to play for, and Tampa Bay has an implied team total of a healthy 26 points. I don’t mind the Winston/Evans stack in this one. Carolina is solid against tight ends, so I will be avoiding Cameron Brate in the regular season finale.
Running Game: Doug Martin was a healthy scratch for last week’s game in news that came as somewhat of a surprise. The team has announced that he will likely be inactive once again this week. Jacquizz Rodgers and Charles Sims had a respective 61%/39% snap count split in Week 16, while Peyton Barber didn’t even see the field. Rodgers seems to be the preferred play here, but this situation is fluid. Carolina is allowing just 90 rushing yards per game this year, the fourth best yardage figure in the league. This may simply be a spot to avoid, as much of the offense could run through the passing game.
THURSDAY UPDATE – Martin has been suspended for using a banned substance, so things have gone from bad to worse there. You can safely assume he is out for this game.
The Takeaway: Tampa Bay has basically eliminated themselves from the playoff race with losses in their last two games, but they are still technically alive heading into Week 17. With few teams having much motivation this week, that does serve as some benefit. Jameis Winston and Mike Evans are an interesting GPP stack against a hit-or-miss Carolina secondary, while the running game is likely a hands-off situation given the uncertainty there. If forced to choose one player, Jacquizz Rodgers seems like the #1 option right now.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts
| Jacksonville Jaguars | Indianapolis Colts | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.5 | 47.5 | 21.5 | -4.5 | 47.5 | 26 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 19.9 | 23 | 23 | 25 | Offense | 25.8 | 8 | 5 | 21 | |
| Opp. Defense | 24.8 | 24 | 25 | 24 | Opp. Defense | 25.1 | 26 | 3 | 20 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Indianapolis Colts | 25 | 27 | 11 | 21 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 6 | 13 | 7 | 9 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Robinson | 138 | 68 | 6 | 801 | Hilton | 143 | 85 | 6 | 1,353 | |
| Hurns | 76 | 35 | 3 | 477 | Moncrief | 56 | 30 | 7 | 307 | |
| Lee | 96 | 57 | 3 | 765 | Dorsett | 55 | 29 | 2 | 472 | |
| Koyack | 20 | 16 | 0 | 136 | Allen | 49 | 32 | 5 | 372 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: Allen Hurns (JAX WR) – Out (Hamstring) / Marqise Lee (JAX WR) – Questionable but expected to play (Hip) / Chris Ivory (JAX RB) – Out (Hamstring) / Donte Moncrief (IND WR) – Doubtful (Shoulder)
JAX Matchup Rating: 7.0
IND Matchup Rating: 7.0
Jacksonville Jaguars
Playoff Positioning: Eliminated from playoff contention.
Passing Game: Bortles mania is back… for a short time at least. He busted out of his season-long slump with 325 passing yards against a banged-up Tennessee secondary last week, and he also caught a touchdown pass for good measure. He is likely going to be popular this week thanks to that performance combined with a great matchup against the Colts. Bortles had three total touchdowns the first time these teams played, and that was probably his best all around game of the year outside of last week. It’s hard to endorse Bortles at $7,600 on FanDuel, as I would rather punt with a dirt cheap option like Landry Jones (who is $1,600 cheaper than Bortles). However, on DraftKings, Bortles costs just $5,600, which is only $600 more than a guy like Jones. Therefore, Bortles is a much stronger play on that site. On the receiving end, you can certainly consider Allen Robinson once again this week. He topped 100 yards in Week 16 for the first time in months, and he remains very affordable on both major sites. Marqise Lee has played on 94% and 84% of the snaps over the last two weeks, so he is also in play, though I wouldn’t consider him a primary option.
Editor’s Note: Chris Ivory has been ruled OUT for Week 17.
Running Game: The Jacksonville running game has been impossible to predict all year long, and Corey Grant got nine carries behind Chris Ivory last week. In a meaningless game, you may see the Jaguars experiment with different combinations here. Despite a favorable matchup against the Colts and their weak defense, this is a spot that’s very difficult to endorse. Ivory is cheap, but he has a very low floor and hasn’t played on more than 60% of the snaps in any game this season. He is a risk/reward GPP option only.
SATURDAY UPDATE – With Ivory listed as questionable, you should pivot to other value running back options.
The Takeaway: While I won’t touch the running game, you can look to Blake Bortles and company if you believe in the breakout game from last week. It is a better path to take Bortles on DraftKings than on FanDuel, though his primary receivers Allen Robinson and Marqise Lee are very affordable on both major sites. These guys aren’t must plays, though, even in a favorable matchup against a weak Indianapolis defense.
Indianapolis Colts
Playoff Positioning: Eliminated from playoff contention.
Passing Game: The Colts are another one of those “Type 2” playoff teams that I discussed on the first page. They were eliminated from playoff contention just last week, and they have little to no motivation to play this game. However, contrary to some of the other squads, the Colts do have a respectable Vegas total of 26 points in this contest. Jacksonville ranks in the middle of the pack in DVOA against the pass, but I don’t really like paying up for Andrew Luck in this spot. I would rather spend up on a quarterback from a team that has more to play for (which you will find in the coming games). T.Y. Hilton caught seven passes the first time these teams met, but he logged just 42 yards on those catches. He will see a lot of double coverage in this game from a decent secondary, especially since Donte Moncrief is likely going to sit out. I won’t talk you off him if you want to play him, but Hilton is more of a secondary option this weekend. My favorite target is likely going to be Jack Doyle. He continues to run more pass routes than the other tight ends on the team, and he will see a few more looks if Moncrief is sidelined.
Running Game: I’m glad this is the last time I have to write about Frank Gore this season. His snap count has dipped to 50%, 55%, and 47% over the last three weeks, and the team has started to work Robert Turbin in much more often, especially in the red zone. It’s basically a time share at this point, and it’s one that I want no part of for DFS purposes.
The Takeaway: Despite their high team total, I am hesitant to pull the trigger with massive exposure to the Colts this week. They will likely have little motivation after being eliminated from the playoff picture just last week, and the primary offensive weapons don’t come cheap in Luck and Hilton. Jack Doyle is a reasonable value target at tight end, and he gets a boost if Donte Moncrief is out. I will avoid the newly formed time share at running back.
New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins
| New England Patriots | Miami Dolphins | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -9.5 | 44.5 | 27 | 9.5 | 44.5 | 17.5 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 27.1 | 5 | 4 | 8 | Offense | 23.3 | 16 | 26 | 9 | |
| Opp. Defense | 23.0 | 14 | 13 | 30 | Opp. Defense | 15.7 | 1 | 14 | 3 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Miami Dolphins | 29 | 18 | 24 | 25 | New England Patriots | 8 | 6 | 6 | 13 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Edelman | 147 | 90 | 2 | 955 | Landry | 119 | 85 | 3 | 1,062 | |
| Hogan | 54 | 34 | 4 | 653 | Parker | 81 | 51 | 4 | 699 | |
| Amendola | 29 | 23 | 4 | 245 | Stills | 74 | 38 | 8 | 685 | |
| Bennett | 68 | 52 | 6 | 668 | Sims | 34 | 26 | 4 | 256 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: Malcolm Mitchell (NE WR) – Out (Knee) / Danny Amendola (NE WR) – Out (Ankle) / Martellus Bennett (NE TE) – Questionable (Ankle) / Tom Brady (NE QB) – Questionable but expected to play because his injury designation every week is a joke (“Thigh”) / Jay Ajayi (MIA RB) – Questionable but expected to play (Shoulder)
NE Matchup Rating: 7.5
MIA Matchup Rating: 6.0
New England Patriots
Playoff Positioning: Clinched AFC East and first round bye. Clinch #1 seed with a win or a Raiders loss. Will be the #2 seed with a loss and a Raiders win.
Editor’s Note: Malcolm Mitchell has been ruled OUT for Week 17.
Passing Game: Finally, we have a game where both teams have something to play for. The Patriots need to win to secure home field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs, so you can bet they will play their starters in this one. There is some risk of an early exit for the primary weapons if this game turns into a blowout, but that is a mild concern given all the uncertainties surrounding Week 17. You can certainly consider Tom Brady, and he is one of the safer quarterback options on this slate. However, you also have to pay a premium for him. The Patriots are double digit favorites in this game, and you could see the Dolphins pull the plug early if they fall way behind, too. I would rather pay for a guy like Aaron Rodgers if you are paying up at the position this week. Julian Edelman is a fine mid-range target at wide receiver, but Miami has done a good job at containing top receivers this year. Edelman had a steady but unspectacular 7/76 line in the first meeting between these teams. Even though New England is projected for 27 points in this game, there isn’t a guy I feel like you need to have on your rosters this week. They do a good job of spreading the ball around, making production difficult to peg.
SATURDAY UPDATE – Malcolm Mitchell is not expected to play this week, and Martellus Bennett might see limited snaps. Upgrade Julian Edelman. Perhaps Michael Floyd and Chris Hogan will see a few more looks, but I am not comfortable targeting either guy.
Running Game: I can’t locate it right now, but I saw a tweet earlier in the week that showed the touchdown dependence of certain running backs. LeGarrette Blount topped the list with 27% of his fantasy points coming from touchdowns, while the next player was around 20%. I wish I could remember who tweeted that, as I forgot to “like” it, but it was very interesting. We all know the drill with Blount by now. He doesn’t catch passes, and if he doesn’t find the end zone, he’s going to be a massive bust. I am definitely not going to play him at $7,600 on FanDuel, and his appeal is limited on DraftKings since he is a zero in the passing game. Even though the game script is in Blount’s favor, I can’t endorse him on either site at his current price.
The Takeaway: The Patriots have motivation to win this game, which makes their skill players viable on a tricky Week 17 slate. However, it’s tough to endorse Tom Brady as a clear cut top option at quarterback, as I like some of the other high-end quarterbacks just as much. I’m not paying $7,600 on FD for LeGarrette Blount. Outside of Julian Edelman and possibly a share or two of Martellus Bennett, I will not have much exposure to the Patriots. That does worry me a little bit, though.
Miami Dolphins
Playoff Positioning: Clinched AFC Wild Card spot. Only playing for #5 or #6 seed. #5 seed would be strongly preferred because they would then draw the Texans instead of the Steelers. Miami needs a win plus a Chiefs loss for that to happen. They should play to win here.
Passing Game: Although the Dolphins should pay to win this game, that doesn’t mean that they can win this game. Matt Moore somehow has six touchdown passes over his last two starts, despite completing just 12 passes in the first one and completing just 53% of his passes in the second one. That is simply not sustainable. In addition, New England has held their last two opponents to three points each. Miami has one of the lowest implied team totals of the week at just over 17 points, and you don’t want to take a chance on Moore here. That is especially true when you add in the fact that Miami might pull their starters early if this game shows signs of getting out of hand. Remember, all they have to gain is one seeding spot in the AFC. I have zero interest in any of the three unpredictable wide receivers.
Running Game: Jay Ajayi busted out of a lengthy funk with a huge game against the Bills in Week 16, and he certainly won some people some GPP dough last week. He logged 206 yards and a touchdown on a whopping 32 carries, but don’t go out of your way to chase the points with him. New England has a stout rush defense that ranks 5th in DVOA, and game flow is likely going to be on the negative side of Ajayi this week, with Miami sitting as ten point underdogs. His price isn’t overly inflated, but I don’t like the prospects for Ajayi in this game, and too many people will chase the production from a week ago.
The Takeaway: New England is playing much stronger defense these days, and the recent production from Matt Moore is a bit of a mirage given his underlying numbers. You aren’t doing anything wrong with a complete fade of Miami in this spot, and the New England defense is in play after they have held back-to-back opponents to just three points.
