NFL Grind Down: Week 4 - Page Two

by LeoTPP Last Updated 2015-10-03 14:33:36

Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Carolina Panthers						Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sunday – 1 p.m.						Raymond James Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		-3	39.5	21.25				3	39.5	18.25
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	23.7	15	26	6		Offense	16.3	29	27	20
Opp. Defense	26.7	22	10	30		Opp. Defense	16.0	2	14	4
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	12	29	22	7		Carolina Panthers	8	21	11	3
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Brown	7	5	1	82		Evans	20	7	0	101
Ginn	22	10	1	188		Jackson	20	9	1	145
Funchess	10	3	0	38		Murphy	13	6	0	143
Olsen	28	15	2	215		Myers	4	3	0	18

The Quick Grind

Notable injuries and suspensions: Jonathan Stewart (CAR, Knee, Probable), Mike Tolbert (CAR, Groin, Probable), Jerricho Cotchery (CAR, Ankle, Out), Doug Martin (TB, Knee, Questionable), Austin Seferian-Jenkins (TB, Shoulder, Doubtful)

CAR Matchup Rating: 6.0
TB Matchup Rating: 3.0

Carolina Panthers

Quarterback: There is a healthy amount of uncertainty for the Panthers heading into Week 4, but their best asset in the passing game and the running game is healthy and ready to go. Cam Newton (FD $8,300, DK $7,000) started off the season with an uninspiring game against the Jaguars, but has followed that up with two great DFS performances, complete with rushing touchdowns and two scores through the air in each. Newton hasn’t played the Bucs since 2013, when he scored six total touchdowns against them in two games and ran for over 110 combined yards. The Bucs may have a different coaching staff and a few different names on defense than it did during that season, but the on-field product is still largely the same. Newton is a top play in all formats against a Tampa Bay defense that isn’t going to be able to slow him down.

Running Game: Here is where the uncertainty kicks in for Carolina. Jonathan Stewart (FD $6,300, DK $4,700) is battling a knee injury, and Mike Tolbert (FD $4,800, DK $3,000) has been sidelined with a groin ailment. That leaves Cameron Artis-Payne (FD $4,900, DK $3,000) as the top healthy back, and if both of the players listed above are ruled out, he becomes a very, very interesting option in daily fantasy football. The rookie out of Auburn has three career touches on offense, so there’s no way to project him based on anything but opportunity, but the opportunity against a defense that was beat up by the mediocre Alfred Blue a week ago is good enough for me in tournaments. The Bucs have allowed the fourth-most points to running backs so far this season, so the healthier, likely to start back from this backfield is in play in tournaments. Newton is the team’s best rushing threat and will likely handle the goal-line duties, where he’s already been effective this season.

Pass Catchers: Greg Olsen (FD $6,300, DK $5,400) is the safest tight end this weekend on a Gronk-free slate. He is one of only two Carolina pass catchers to see more than ten targets so far this season, the other being Ted Ginn (FD $5,500, DK $3,400), who is also an option. There are no defenders for Tampa Bay worth noting as matchups to avoid, and according to Football Outsiders, their strength in terms of defending the pass has come against opposing backs. Olsen is a cash game play, Ginn is a tournament pick as his volume and floor are a bit too unstable, even in a good matchup.

The Takeaway: Watch the Carolina injury report to see if their running backs are healthy, as any of them make for decent plays against Tampa Bay. But Newton is the star of the show, and Olsen is a reliable but popular tight end play. Ted Ginn rounds out the DFS options on offense, and the Carolina defense makes sense against a Tampa Bay team projected to be held under 20 points and starting a quarterback who is throwing an interception or getting sacked on over 10% of his dropbacks so far this year. The Panthers are generating turnovers and sacks at a decent rate as a defense, and offer nice upside on a week when most gamers will just play the Seahawks or Cardinals again.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Quarterback: The aforementioned quarterback being sacked and picked off on a fairly regular basis is Jameis Winston (FD $6,400, DK $5,100), who has been let down by his offensive line and wide receivers as often as he has been by his brain and his arm. The Buccaneers just aren’t a good football team, but Winston at least offers a bit more pedigree and potential than a bargain bin quarterback like Ryan Mallett. With that said, he faces a defense this week that ranks fifth against the pass according to Football Outsiders, and that has a star corner in Josh Norman who will likely spend some of his afternoon covering Mike Evans. There are better cheap quarterbacks this weekend.

Running Game: With Doug Martin (FD $6,400, DK $4,400) battling injury and failing to see much of the field once the Bucs get behind in games, Charles Sims (FD $5,700, DK $3,600) then becomes the “preferred” Tampa Bay running back. He’s significantly worse on handoffs, but is a decent receiver out of the backfield. Neither are in play in this matchup.

Pass Catchers: Mike Evans (FD $7,500, DK $6,400) is likely to see plenty of Josh Norman, but I’m not sure that’s going to scare away Winston. And while this may lead to passes defended or intercepted, that doesn’t lose any points for Evans (other than the potential points the pass would have earned had he caught it), we can still hope that the Bucs can move their young star receiver around and get him involved in the offense despite a tough defender on the other side of the formation. Vincent Jackson (FD $6,800, DK $4,900) has seen his targets decline since Week 1, while Louis Murphy (FD $5,000, DK $3,200) has picked up a couple of extra looks, but not enough to merit consideration. Evans is too risky to fully recommend, but his talent is undeniable and his volume (17 targets last week) is enticing.

The Takeaway: Mike Evans is a guy you can include on one of your 40 lineups in a tournament, but otherwise, I’m staying away from a home underdog in a game with such a low total.

Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Redskins

Philadelphia Eagles						Washington Redskins
Sunday – 1 p.m.						FedExField
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		-3	43.5	23.25				3	43.5	20.25
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	19.3	21	27	30		Offense	18.3	26	21	4
Opp. Defense	19.7	8	7	3		Opp. Defense	21.0	11	23	8
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Washington Redskins	5	2	19	14		Philadelphia Eagles	16	7	29	5
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Matthews	30	22	1	231		Jackson	1	0	0	0
Agholor	12	4	0	36		Garcon	27	17	1	161
Huff	6	4	0	39		Grant	13	6	0	69
Celek	1	1	0	6		Reed	26	19	1	241

The Quick Grind

Notable injuries and suspensions: DeMarco Murray (PHI, Hamstring, Questionable), DeSean Jackson (WAS, Hamstring, Out)

Weather note: There has been talk of this game being postponed or moved due to Hurricane Joaquin. It is unlikely the date of the game will change at this point, keeping players in this game as Week 4 DFS options. However, if the game remains in the DC area, it will be impacted by the storm, even if it doesn’t make landfall. As of Thursday evening, our Chief Meteorologist Kevin Roth had a reasonable amount of confidence this game would take place with a little wind and rain but was adamant to point out that confidently predicting the path of tropical systems can be foolish. I would have other options in place if planning to roster players from this game, as tropical storm winds and heavy rain would make for difficult playing conditions.

PHI Matchup Rating: 4.0
WAS Matchup Rating: 4.5

Philadelphia Eagles

Quarterback: Sam Bradford (FD $7,100, DK $6,000) has been a total disappointment so far this season, as his inability to stretch the field and a lack of protection and run blocking have combined to stall out what many expected to be a high-powered offense. This weekend, things don’t get any easier, as the Eagles take on a Washington team that has one of the slowest tempos in the league and that has limited opponent fantasy points through three weeks. Washington aren’t actually a great defense, especially against the pass, as they rank 20th in DVOA and 18th in coverage according to PFF. But they have held opposing quarterbacks to the fifth-fewest points in the league so far, and the Eagles don’t look like the team to flip the script and expose the Washington pass defense as a fantasy fraud. And even if I thought it was, I wouldn’t target Bradford, who just doesn’t have a ton of upside until he proves he can open the offense up and get the ball down the field.

Running Game: DeMarco Murray (FD $7,600, DK $6,500) will likely return to the lineup after missing a week with a tweaked hamstring. The running game finally gained some traction in his absence in Week 3, but Murray’s problems through two weeks appeared to be more of a blocking issue than a talent or vision issue on the runner’s part. However, this week presents a matchup against a Washington run defense that is still quite a bit better than a lot of people will give credit for, as Jay Gruden’s team rank fifth in DVOA against the run and allow the second-fewest fantasy points to backs so far this year. I don’t want anything to do with this backfield with other solid options at similar and lesser price points. Darren Sproles (FD $6,000, DK $4,500) has seen his price jump thanks to his touchdown-scoring antics, but the overall volume isn’t there, especially on non-PPR sites.

Pass Catchers: Jordan Matthews (FD $7,000, DK $6,600) is the only receiver worthy of a spot in your fantasy lineups in an Eagles uniform, and his volume and role provide him with a decent floor even in a tough matchup. If the weather cooperates and the winds (wherever this game is played) aren’t whipping around, he’s a tournament option. No one else is targeted often enough and shows enough efficiency or upside to merit selection.

The Takeaway: The weather could eliminate the only worthwhile fantasy target in this game, as Jordan Matthews isn’t a smart choice if there are 20+ MPH winds swirling around the stadium. Even if the sun was expected to shine throughout this game, there are no other Philly targets I like in this one.

Washington Redskins

Quarterback: Kirk Cousins (FD $6,100, DK $5,400) hasn’t been great this season, but he’s been slightly better than I expected, completing a ton of passes and showing a bit of upside despite his turnover-prone nature. With that said, the weather and a showdown with a top-10 DVOA and PFF passing defense (yes, the Eagles are a top-10 pass defense) have me looking elsewhere. The Eagles have five interceptions through three weeks and will likely add at least one or two more this weekend.

Running Game: Are you ready to trust the Washington running back situation after last week’s Chris Thompson (FD $5,100, DK $3,500) game? Matt Jones (FD $6,300, DK $4,500) does appear to have passed Alfred Morris (FD $6,200, DK $4,100) for time and touches in this offense, but Thompson took most of the passing game snaps in Week 3 and Jay Gruden insists that Morris is the lead back for his offense. Jones has the talent and has shown flashes of potential, but the Eagles have a stout run defense (eighth in DVOA), so I’m going to pass on this backfield.

Pass Catchers: If the weather cooperates, Pierre Garcon (FD $6,100, DK $5,300) and Jordan Reed (FD $5,600, DK $4,500) are both in play, but with winds likely to limit the passing games, it might be better to look elsewhere. If the game is moved or the forecast changes, these two are the obvious top targets in this passing game, and because their volume is so secure, they both are solid PPR plays against a pass defense that has limited quarterbacks this year, but not their receivers. The Eagles have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to wideouts in 2015.

The Takeaway: If the winds are expected to be low and manageable for quarterbacks, or if the game is moved out of the path of the storm, Garcon and Reed are viable tournament plays. Otherwise, I’m going to let others take their chances on an unstable running back situation and a less-than-favorable matchup and environment for the passing game.

Oakland Raiders at Chicago Bears

Oakland Raiders						Chicago Bears
Sunday – 1 p.m.						Soldier Field
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		-3	44.5	23.75				3	44.5	20.75
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	25.7	10	7	17		Offense	15.3	31	31	6
Opp. Defense	35.0	32	4	28		Opp. Defense	28.7	28	30	13
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Chicago Bears	24	15	27	11		Oakland Raiders	26	23	12	32
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Crabtree	33	18	1	184		Jeffery	11	5	0	78
Cooper	31	20	1	290		Royal	16	11	0	66
Streater	1	1	0	8		Wilson	9	3	0	69
Rivera	8	4	0	19		Bennett	18	13	1	118

The Quick Grind

Notable injuries and suspensions: Jay Cutler (CHI, Hamstring, Questionable), Alshon Jeffery (CHI, Hamstring, Questionable)

OAK Matchup Rating: 7.0
CHI Matchup Rating: 3.5

Oakland Raiders

Quarterback: The Oakland Raiders at favorites, on the road, against the Chicago Bears. Just a few months ago, that would have sounded like a joke or a mistake, but with the promising young talent the Raiders possess and the injuries and general lack of quality from Chicago as of late, it’s not all that surprising. Derek Carr (FD $7,000, DK $5,300) stumbled out of the gate in an injury-shortened game against the Bengals, but posted 27 and 20 FanDuel points in his next two starts and now gets a matchup with a defense ranked 31st in the NFL in pass defense according to Football Outsiders DVOA. Aaron Rodgers and Carson Palmer combined for seven touchdowns on their 47 throws against the Bears in Weeks 1 and 2, and Carr should be able to find the end zone multiple times as well, which would easily pay off his low price across the industry. Carr is a top play in any format.

Running Game: If you build a lineup that doesn’t have Carr, it should probably have Latavius Murray (FD $7,500, DK $6,300). The Oakland runner is big, strong, quick, and has a great opportunity as an every-down back for the Raiders. Two seasons ago, the Bears had a truly horrific run defense, and last year’s team showed the slightest bit of improvement. But things have turned for the worse yet again, and now that the team has traded away two defensive players as they try to reshape their defense under a new coaching staff, don’t expect much resistance to the Oakland running game in Week 4. Murray is a core play and should be deployed in any format on any site.

Pass Catchers: It feels weird to load up on Raiders, right? But we’re not stopping with just Carr and Murray, as rookie Amari Cooper (FD $7,200, DK $6,300) has been a key part of the offense and is a very strong stacking option with Carr for any daily fantasy lineup this weekend. Cooper has 290 yards through his first three games, and while his lack of red zone work (no targets through three weeks) is a bit worrisome, one has to figure that will change as the first-year player gets on the same page with his quarterback. His big play ability makes him a tournament option regardless of his status in the red zone. Michael Crabtree (FD $5,800, DK $4,600) has four red zone targets, and while none have turned into touchdowns, it’s a bit more comfortable of a situation on non-PPR sites to roster the guy we know will be thrown passes in scoring situations. He has more targets on the year than Cooper, but just hasn’t had the explosive plays. He’s a better value with smaller upside. Seth Roberts (FD $5,100, DK $3,000) is the tertiary option in the receiving corps and has been a top option inside the opponent’s 20 this season. He makes for a very sneaky tournament play.

The Takeaway: Carr, Murray and Cooper are core plays this weekend, while Crabtree is a very solid way to break from the crowd awed by Cooper’s big play ability, and Roberts represents a low-owned way to get exposure to an offense many will target.

Chicago Bears

Quarterback: The Raiders may be much improved on offense and in terms of general quality of play, but their defense still isn’t what anyone would consider “good.” Through three weeks they’ve allowed nearly 1000 yards, six touchdowns and only two interceptions to Andy Dalton, Joe Flacco and Josh McCown. Jimmy Clausen (FD $5,700, DK $5,000) may be the answer to their defensive woes, however, as the Chicago QB has never thrown for more than 195 yards in a game in his career, and has five touchdowns to 11 interceptions since entering the league. I cannot fathom a single reason why I would roster Clausen in daily fantasy football outside of the obvious low ownership he’ll possess, and that alone doesn’t make him worth a spot in my lineups.

Running Game: Oakland has allowed running backs to catch 23 of 24 targets through three weeks, and let runners score three scores on the ground so far this year. They’re ranked below average in run defense according to DVOA, as well. This means Matt Forte (FD $8,300, DK $7,100) is certainly in play, as the boring, limited Clausen will use him as a checkdown quite often, and he’ll be able to run against a defense that doesn’t grade out well against rushing attacks. Forte has 20 or more combined rushes and targets in his last seven games, and 19 of his last 20. His opportunities will always be there, no matter the game flow, and he’s a solid option against a subpar Oakland defense.

Pass Catchers: Alshon Jeffery (FD $7,600, DK $6,600) may play this week, but his lack of health and lack of a competent quarterback makes him only a deep tournament option. The Raiders have been destroyed by tight ends so far this season, which brings Martellus Bennett (FD $5,500, DK $4,500) into play, especially since he is the team’s leader in targets so far this season. If Jeffery is out, there are no receivers worthy of targeting thanks to Clausen’s limitations.

The Takeaway: Matt Forte is in play as a safe option with secure volume going against a below average defense, but the passing game should be avoided outside of Bennett and Jeffery.

Houston Texans at Atlanta Falcons

Houston Texans						Atlanta Falcons
Sunday – 1 p.m.						Georgia Dome
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		6.5	46.5	20				-6.5	46.5	26.5
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	18.7	23	13	12		Offense	29.7	5	4	13
Opp. Defense	24.0	16	24	15		Opp. Defense	20.0	9	11	19
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Atlanta Falcons	9	32	4	15		Houston Texans	28	8	8	24
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Hopkins	38	22	3	252		Jones	46	34	4	440
Washington	28	13	0	210		White	9	4	0	84
Shorts	29	16	0	149		Hankerson	21	11	1	138
Fiedorowicz	2	2	0	34		Tamme	10	8	0	104

The Quick Grind

Notable injuries and suspensions: Arian Foster (HOU, Groin, Game-time Decision), Devonta Freeman (ATL, Toe, Probable), Julio Jones (ATL, Toe/Hamstring, Probable), Tevin Coleman (ATL, Ribs, Out), Jacob Tamme (ATL, Concussion, Out)

HOU Matchup Rating: 6.0
ATL Matchup Rating: 8.0

Houston Texans

Quarterback: Ryan Mallett (FD $6,300, DK $5,000) continues to start for the Texans, and continues to represent a terrible option at quarterback, even at his reduced price. In a cupcake matchup against the Bucs last weekend, he managed only 12 FanDuel points on 39 pass attempts. A rushing touchdown in Week 2 against Carolina inflates fantasy point production that would have otherwise looked even worse, as he completed only 27 of 58 passes for 244 yards and one touchdown. He’s not a good quarterback, and the Falcons are actually looking respectable against the pass this year (and have some semblance of a pass rush, although not a great one). Even from a point-per-dollar standpoint, Mallett is not an option this weekend.

Running Game: If Arian Foster (FD $8,000, DK $7,000) plays, Arian Foster should be in at least one of your daily fantasy lineups. The Falcons have allowed the most points to opposing running backs so far this season and rank 25th in Football Outsiders DVOA against the run. The Texans were able to gash the Bucs’ terrible defense with Alfred Blue last week, and will do the same against the Falcons this week, especially if Foster is back. The risk of re-injury is always there for Foster, but that is the only reason to not play him if he suits up. If Foster is held back for one more week (which is possible given the Texans quick turnaround to play the Colts on Thursday night), Alfred Blue (FD $6,400, DK $3,900) remains the back to target if you want a piece of the non-Arian running game.

Pass Catchers: Desmond Trufant is one of the best young corners in the NFL, but he has been playing a side so far this season and not shadowing receivers. With the way the Texans move their receivers around, no one player is out of contention for your lineups, but they all suffer a small downgrade due to an inevitable route or two against the very solid Trufant. DeAndre Hopkins (FD $7,900, DK $7,300) is a star and is worthy of a spot on your lineup thanks to his skill level, volume, and role in the red zone. Nate Washington (FD $5,200, DK $3,500) has quietly become a very good number two option for the Texans, and is also worth a tournament entry or two as a good value pick to open up salary for big names elsewhere. He has one fewer target than Cecil Shorts (FD $5,300, DK $3,500) and has fewer receptions, but he has been much more explosive. Shorts is a possibility, as well, but he’ll likely need to score a touchdown to reach value with how few points he’s likely to accumulate through just catches and yards.

The Takeaway: Arian Foster is a top tournament option and a cash-game viable running back if he suits up. Alfred Blue is a good tournament pick if Foster doesn’t go. Hopkins, Washington and Shorts are in play in the passing game, but pass on Mallett.

Atlanta Falcons

Quarterback: Matt Ryan (FD $8,400, DK $6,900) might be the only healthy player on the Atlanta offense this weekend. Ryan has started off the 2015 season in somewhat pedestrian fashion, picking up 18 FanDuel points in his first two starts before stepping up to 23 in his third game. Week 4 provides a matchup against a Houston team that allows the fifth-most points to quarterbacks and runs at the fastest tempo on offense in the NFL. More often than not, that’s going to be a positive situation for starting a quarterback in daily fantasy, especially one as talented as Ryan. Pro Football Focus grades the Texans as one of the worst teams in terms of pass rush in the league, which is likely the leading contributor to the big numbers against them in the passing game. He won’t run for 76 yards and a touchdown like Cam Newton did in Week 2 against Houston, but the three-touchdown breakout from Alex Smith in Week 1 is something we could see from Ryan in Week 4. Just keep an eye on the health of his offensive weapons, as he loses a lot of appeal if stars are missing from the offense around him.

Running Game: Tevin Coleman is almost certain to miss this game, which in turn sets up as another shot for Devonta Freeman (FD $7,200, DK $5,200) to work his magic as an every-down back… except now Freeman is hurt, too. He should still suit up for the Falcons, but at less than 100% against a tough Houston run defense, I might leave Freeman to those seeking to chase last week’s points. Pro Football Focus grades the Houston run defense in the top-10 in the NFL, and the only rushing touchdown they’ve allowed is the aforementioned rushing score for Cam Newton. Jamaal Charles and Charles Sims have both caught passes for scores against Houston, something Freeman could do if he suits up against the Texans, but don’t expect much from a back against a team that’s allowed opposing running backs to total 66/235/0 so far this season. J.J. Watt and Company have me looking elsewhere in DFS for running backs, although his PPR potential could lead to him reaching his value on DraftKings.

Pass Catchers: Julio Jones (FD $9,400, DK $9,300) is dealing with a couple of different injuries, but like Foster above, if he suits up, he should be in your lineups. Jones has been on fire through three weeks and is on pace for a historic season if he can keep up his production. The Houston defense has been tough against wideouts so far this season, but they haven’t faced anyone like Julio. Mike Evans is the closest comparison, and he was a few drops away from an 11-catch, 140-yard game against them. Leonard Hankerson (FD $5,600, DK $3,700) has been a somewhat predictable breakout player this year, and has seen 21 of the 69 non-Julio targets on the season, including three in the red zone. He is a decent value play, and becomes very appealing for all formats should Julio sit out for whatever reason. Roddy White (FD $5,600, DK $4,000) has taken a backseat in this offense and is too unpredictable to roster, and the tight end situation is totally unappealing.

The Takeaway: Keep an eye on the injury report, and fire up Matt Ryan and Julio Jones assuming the star receiver is healthy enough to play. The running game is in a tough spot, and with injury concerns on top of a difficult matchup, I’m fading that element of this offense.

Jump to Page 1 2 3 4