NHL Grind Down: Friday, February 5th
The RotoGrinders NHL Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the NHL schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy hockey there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, salaries, and more.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Hockey is an extremely high variance sport. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Remember, these writeups are done prior to lineups being released, so make sure to check our Starting Lineups page to ensure the recommended options are playing.
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Pittsburgh Penguins at Tampa Bay Lightning – 07:30 PM EST
| Pittsburgh Penguins | Tampa Bay Lightning | ||||||||
 | Marc-Andre Fleury |  | Ben Bishop | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 25-17-7 | 28-18-4 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.57 | 2.49 | 20.50% | 83.80% | Team Stats | 2.62 | 2.30 | 19.00% | 81.30% |
After being left off the All-Star roster for the first time in his career, Sidney Crosby took out some frustration on Craig Anderson as he lit the lamp three times and added an assist against Ottawa on Tuesday. With Evgeni Malkin sidelined for at least the next two games, Coach Mike Sullivan will be leaning heavily on Crosby to keep things rolling offensively. Crosby has picked up points in eight straight games, and after a very slow start to the season by his standards, he’s now posted 14 goals and added 12 assists over his last 18 games. He’s a top tier option on the blue-line despite the tough matchup and will be joined by Chris Kunitz and Patric Hornqvist on the top forward line. Hornqvist scored a goal and added two assists in his only other meeting with Tampa Bay this season and has racked up two goals and nine assists in the last nine games, making him a fine option as well. Matt Cullen is slated to jump into Malkin’s role as the center of both Phil Kessel and Carl Hagelin on the second line, but he’s picked up just 14 points in 49 games so you’ll need to keep your expectations in check. On defense, Kris Letang puts a three game point streak on the line and scored a goal and dished out an assist against Tampa in their first meeting. He’ll see all the minutes he can handle on the point of Pittsburgh’s very dangerous #1 power-play unit and has racked up six goals and 15 assists over his last 14 games. While it’s impossible to ignore the Penguins firepower on a short slate (even without Malkin), this is not an ideal matchup as Ben Bishop owns a ridiculous 1.90 GAA in 21 home starts this season.
It was an uninspiring start to the season for the Lightning, but they picked an important victory over the Detroit Red Wings on Wednesday night and have now won 10 of their last 12 games to climb into second place in the Atlantic Division. The defending Eastern Conference Champions will look to make a another statement tonight as the Pittsburgh Penguins invade Amalie Arena. Despite being badly outshot (25-40), the Lightning squeaked out a 5-4 overtime victory in their only previous meeting this season. John Cooper has re-discovered the two headed monster that led this Tampa team into the Stanley Cup Finals last season as Steven Stamkos headlines the top line alongside Ondrej Palat and Vladislav Namestnikov while Nikita Kucherov and Tyler Johnson (with Alex Killorn) join forces on another line. Kucherov tallied a goal and an assist against Detroit in his last game and now leads the team with 21 goals and 22 assists in 50 games. After a slow start to the season he’s been on an absolute tear lately, posting at least one point in 17 of the last 19 games and racking up 15 goals and 15 assists over his last 24 games. Stamkos has thrived on home ice this season, scoring 11 goals and adding 14 assists in 26 games. On defense, both Anton Stralman and Victor Hedman average 22+ minutes of ice-time per game on the season and share the duties as the point-men with the man advantage. The former first-round pick Hedman looks to be the slightly more appealing option as he’s amassed two goals and nine assists over his last ten games.
Pittsburgh Penguins
CF%: 51.7, CP60: 109.6, 5×5 Differential: 1
Elite Options: Sidney Crosby, Patric Hornqvist, Kris Letang
Secondary Options: Chris Kunitz, Phil Kessel, Carl Hagelin, Olli Maatta, Trevor Daley, Derrick Pouliot (as a punt)
Tampa Bay Lightning
CF%: 52, CP60: 105.5, 5×5 Differential: 11
Elite Options: Steven Stamkos, Nikita Kucherov, Tyler Johnson, Victor Hedman
Secondary Options: Ondrej Palat, Vladislav Namestnikov, Alex Killorn, Valtteri Filppula, Anton Stralman
Carolina Hurricanes at Winnipeg Jets – 08:00 PM EST
| Carolina Hurricanes | Winnipeg Jets | ||||||||
 | Cam Ward |  | Connor Hellebuyck | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 23-21-8 | 22-25-3 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.38 | 2.65 | 16.10% | 81.50% | Team Stats | 2.58 | 2.86 | 16.20% | 77.20% |
After finishing the first half of the season with back to back five goal outings, the Hurricanes squandered a solid matchup against the Flames on Wednesday and dropped a 4-1 decision. They’ll continue their tour of Canada in Winnipeg tonight against a Jets team that finds themselves in the cellar of the Central Division. While Carolina is not the most fantasy friendly team in the NHL (2.38 goals/game), they do see a boost tonight from facing the Jets ugly 77.2% penalty kill. With that said, Carolina does own the league’s third worst power-play and their leading scorer is blue-liner Justin Faulk. Faulk has already tallied 12 power-play goals and leads the team with 156 SOG. Up-front, Kris Versteeg and Eric Staal join forces on the top forward line and also see plenty of run with the man advantage. Versteeg has posted five goals and four assists over the last 11 games and is still well underpriced on several sites. Alternatively, Jordan Staal may have seen his four game scoring streak snapped on Wednesday, but has still racked up four goals and eight assists over the last 12 games.
Winnipeg wraps up a six game home stand tonight against the Carolina Hurricanes, but after dropping four of the first five games, they’ve likely fallen too far behind in the Central Division and are preparing to be sellers at the trade deadline later this month. Blake Wheeler leads the team in scoring and has been a force on home ice where he owns six goals and 20 assists in 25 games at the MTS Centre. Paul Maurice recently shook up his forward lines and Wheeler now skates alongside youngsters Nikolaj Ehlers and Mark Scheifele on both the top forward line and #1 power-play unit. Former first round pick Ehlers has picked up at least one point in five straight games and flashed his offensive upside with a hat trick against the Coyotes just before the break. Bryan Little has also fared much better on home ice this season and leads a very capable secondary scoring line alongside Mathieu Perreault and Drew Stafford. On the blue-line, Dustin Byfuglien continues to put up big offensive numbers and could be one of the biggest catches available at the trade deadline. Big Buff has scored goals in three straight games and now owns 15 goals and 15 assists in 50 games. He’s averaging nearly 25 minutes of ice-time per game and see’s all the time he can handle on the point of the #1 power-play making him a fine defensive option in all formats.
Carolina Hurricanes
CF%: 53.1, CP60: 106.5, 5×5 Differential: -13
Elite Options: Justin Faulk
Secondary Options: Eric Staal, Jordan Staal, Kris Versteeg, Jeff Skinner, Victor Rask
Winnipeg Jets
CF%: 51.4, CP60: 106.4, 5×5 Differential: 5
Elite Options: Blake Wheeler, Bryan Little, Dustin Byfuglien
Secondary Options: Andrew Ladd, Mathieu Perreault, Mark Scheifele, Nikolaj Ehlers, Tyler Myers
Columbus Blue Jackets at Calgary Flames – 09:00 PM EST
| Columbus Blue Jackets | Calgary Flames | ||||||||
 | Joonas Korpisalo |  | Karri Ramo | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 19-28-5 | 22-24-3 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.54 | 3.19 | 17.40% | 80.20% | Team Stats | 2.63 | 2.96 | 14.50% | 76.70% |
The Blue Jackets will hit the ice with the worst record in the NHL (20-28-5) and have posted an ugly 11-17-1 road record this season. They did manage to pick up a win in Vancouver last night, but were pushed to overtime in the process and will face a quick turnaround as they travel to Calgary to battle the Flames this evening. While it’s a lost season for the Blue Jackets at this point, John Tortorella does have this team playing better lately and the matchup against a Flames team that has allowed 2.96 goals against per game this season and owns a 76.7% penalty kill is a favorable one. Brandon Dubinsky scored a goal in the first meeting between these two teams and has posted five goals and nine assists over his last 15 games. He centers the top line with Boone Jenner and Cam Atkinson on his wings. Both Scott Hartnell and Brandon Saad lead the team in scoring (with 36 and 35 points, respectively) and join Dubinsky on the #1 power-play unit. Hartnell has picked up points in four straight games and also found the back of the net against the Flames when they squared off in late January. The trio of Jack Johnson, Ryan Murry and Seth Jones soak up all of the available playing time on the point of the Blue Jacket’s power-play and are not only rather inexpensive, but also fine options against that atrocious Calgary penalty kill. Jones has dished out six assists in 12 games with the Blue Jackets while averaging over 24 minutes of playing time per game with his new team.
With the Blue Jackets being the worst defensive team in the NHL this season (3.15 GA/G) and Calgary sporting a solid 15-10-0 home record, the Flames are going to be a popular selection tonight. Calgary picked up a 4-2 win in Columbus the only other time these two teams met this season and picked up a much needed 4-1 win against Carolina on Wednesday. Johnny Gaudreau is easily the top scoring option for this team as he leads them with 21 goals and 28 assists in 49 games. He’s posted a ridiculous 18 goals, 18 assists and +19 in 25 games at the Saddledome and will likely have one of the highest ownership rates of the evening. He’s joined by the talented Sean Monahan and Jiri Hudler on the top line and they figure to be Bob Hartley’s plan for victory. Alternatively, former first round pick Sam Bennett scored a pair of goals against the Blue Jackets in that first meeting and has a nice GPP upside. Mark Giordano extended his point streak to three games with a goal and an assist against Carolina on Wednesday and has now racked up six goals and 15 assists over his last 18 games. He picked up a pair of helpers against the Blue Jackets and is a dangerous weapon from the point of the #1 power-play unit. With Dennis Wideman watching from the press-box, the trio of Dougie Hamilton, Kris Russell and T.J. Brodie should all also see a few added minutes giving them a sizable fantasy boost.
Columbus Blue Jackets
CF%: 47.8, CP60: 107, 5×5 Differential: -15
Elite Options: Brandon Dubinsky, Brandon Saad, Scott Hartnell
Secondary Options: Boone Jenner, Cam Atkinson, Nick Foligno, Seth Jones, Jack Johnson, Ryan Murray
Calgary Flames
CF%: 47.6, CP60: 110.8, 5×5 Differential: -12
Elite Options: Johnny Gaudreau, Sean Monahan, Jiri Hudler, Mark Giordano
Secondary Options: Sam Bennett, Michael Frolik, Dougie Hamilton, T.J. Brodie, Kris Russell
Arizona Coyotes at Anaheim Ducks – 10:00 PM EST
| Arizona Coyotes | Anaheim Ducks | ||||||||
 | Louis Domingue |  | John Gibson | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 24-21-5 | 23-18-7 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.64 | 3.02 | 17.30% | 75.90% | Team Stats | 2.13 | 2.31 | 18.30% | 89.80% |
The Coyotes hung tough, but ultimately came up short in a 5-4 overtime loss to the Chicago Blackhawks last night. They’ve now dropped three straight games (and seven of their last nine) and will travel with tired legs to Anaheim to face the surging Ducks this evening. While I’m not excited about their fortunes this evening, it’s impossible to ignore the fact that Arizona has won all three previous meetings against Anaheim this season while outscoring them 12-5 in the process. With that said, Anaheim has clearly found its stride and not only owns the league’s #1 penalty kill, but also allowed just 2.09 goals against per game during the month of January. While I view them as GPP only options, Dave Tippett does have two dangerous forward lines at his disposal. The Ducks have had no answer for the young duo of Max Domi and Anthony Duclair thus far as Domi has torched them for three goals and three assists in their three meetings while Duclair has lit the lamp on five occasions. Those two will be centered by Martin Hanzal both at even strength and on the #1 power-play and look like the most dangerous options here. Mikkel Boedker leads all Arizona forwards with 35 points in 51 games and headlines a very capable second line with Antoine Vermette and Tobias Rieder. With all that said, the most attractive fantasy option on this team is blue-liner Oliver Ekman-Larsson. He scored a goal and added two assists against Chicago last night to take the team lead with 37 points and has now piled up eight goals and nine assists in his last 16 games.
Anahiem has made a huge statement to the Western Conference (particularly the Pacific Division) with a pair of wins over San Jose and Los Angeles to begin the second half of the season. They’ve posted a 12-3-1 record over their last 16 games and suddenly resemble the team that entered the playoffs as the #1 seed last season. Their earlier struggles against the Coyotes this season are a slight concern, but I’m expecting that to end this evening. Both Ryan Getzlaf and Corey Perry are known commodities and lead this team with 34 points. While they’re no longer skating together at even strength, they do pair up on the #1 power-play unit and look like elite options against Arizona’s putrid 76.4% penalty kill. The newly acquired David Perron joins them on that #1 power-play unit while also playing alongside Getzlaf at even strength. He’s tallied three goals and five assists in six games with his new team and is one of the best bargains on the board tonight. Cam Fowler finally returned to action after the break and jumps right back into his role as the point-man on the #1 power-play unit alonside Sami Vatanen. Both are rock solid cash game options thanks to this solid matchup.
Arizona Coyotes
CF%: 47, CP60: 106.4, 5×5 Differential: -3
Elite Options: Oliver Ekman-Larsson
Secondary Options: Max Domi, Anthony Duclair, Martin Hanzal, Mikkel Boedker, Antoine Vermette
Anaheim Ducks
CF%: 53.3, CP60: 108, 5×5 Differential: -14
Elite Options: Ryan Getzlaf, Corey Perry, David Perron, Sami Vatanen, Cam Fowler
Secondary Options: Ryan Kesler, Jakob Silfverberg, Patrick Maroon, Hampus Lindholm