NHL Grind Down: Friday, October 16th
The RotoGrinders NHL Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the NHL schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy hockey there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, salaries, and more.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Hockey is an extremely high variance sport. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Remember, these writeups are done prior to lineups being released, so make sure to check our Starting Lineups page to ensure the recommended options are playing.
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San Jose Sharks at New Jersey Devils – 07:00 PM EDT
| San Jose Sharks | New Jersey Devils | ||||||||
 | Martin Jones |  | Cory Schneider | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 40-33 | 32-36 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.73 | 2.76 | 21.60% | 78.50% | Team Stats | 2.15 | 2.55 | 19.30% | 80.60% |
The Sharks embarrassed the Capitals on Tuesday to improve to 3-0-0 and have outscored their opponents (all tough ones) by a combined score of 12-1. They’ll head to New Jersey tonight for their easiest matchup yet against a winless Devils team and are understandably big favorites in Vegas. The Sharks are blessed with two separate forward lines that New Jersey will likely have no answer for, and both sets of forwards are going to popular plays this evening. San Jose posted an impressive 21.6% power-play last season, so their power-play looks ripe for the picking tonight against the Devil’s subpar penalty kill. The “Big Three” up-front (Thornton, Pavelski and Marleau) should all be targeted as you see fit, with Joel Ward, Joonas Donskoi and Tomas Hertl all worth a look as value plays. On defense, Brent Burns is an elite option tonight despite the big-ticket asking price with Marc-Edouard Vlasic on the radar as well. In net, Martin Jones has been sensational thus far (3-0-0 with a 0.33 GAA, .987 SV% and a pair of shutouts) and should be highly owned in all formats.
There are seven games on tonight’s slate, the Devils are 0-3-0 and facing an undefeated Sharks team that’s allowed just one goal so far in 2015-16. Not much analysis is needed here, so I’m not going to provide much. The New Jersey Devils offer very little fantasy value on an average night and looking outside of Mike Cammalleri and Kyle Palmieri tonight just doesn’t have much merit. Aside from a complete GPP flier, save your research time and move on.
Elite Plays
SAN: Patrick Marleau, Joe Pavelski, Brent Burns, Martin Jones
NJD: None
Secondary Plays
SJ: Joe Thornton, Joonas Donskoi, Joel Ward, Tomas Hertl, Marc-Edouard Vlasic
NJ: Michael Cammalleri, Kyle Palmieri
Toronto Maple Leafs at Columbus Blue Jackets – 07:00 PM EDT
| Toronto Maple Leafs | Columbus Blue Jackets | ||||||||
 | Jonathan Bernier |  | Sergei Bobrovsky | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 30-44 | 42-35 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.51 | 3.13 | 15.90% | 80.50% | Team Stats | 2.77 | 3.02 | 21.70% | 80.20% |
The Maple Leafs will head to Columbus looking to earn Mike Babcock his first win as the Toronto head coach. After a very slow start offensively, the Maple Leafs finally broke out on Saturday, scoring four goals and firing 41 shots on goal before ultimately falling 5-4 in overtime to the Ottawa Senators. With Phil Kessel no longer in the picture, there’s just not a ton to like about this team from an offensive standpoint. However, with Columbus getting lit up like a Christmas tree in their last outing, they should have plenty of chances. Tyler Bozak and James van Riemsdyk lead the charge up front, with the talented Joffrey Lupul joining them as a winger on the team’s top power-play unit. On defense, Dion Phaneuf happens to be the only player on this team with more than a single point through the first three games (he has three assists) and see’s an ample amount of time on the point of the #1 power-play unit. Morgan Rielly has been quiet to start the season, but he showed plenty of offensive potential last year and is reasonably priced across the industry.
After allowing seven goals to the Ottawa Senators and falling to 0-4-0 on the season, it’s getting close to panic time for Blue Jackets fans. This team was brutal to start the 2014-15 season and even a red-hot finish to the season couldn’t bail them out of the hole they had dug themselves into; they certainly don’t want history to repeat itself here. Tonight’s game is crucial for this team as after this game, the NHL scheduling gods certainly didn’t do them any favors. With urgency behind them, I’m expecting an inspired effort from the Blue Jackets. Their top line of Saad/Johnsen/Foligno has been terrific thus far and deserves your attention tonight against the Maple Leafs as they’ve combined for four goals, seven assists and 39 SOG through the first four games. The newly acquired Brandon Saad has already tallied three power-play goals which bodes well for him tonight as Toronto was in the bottom third of the league last season with their penalty kill (80.5%). On the blue-line, both Jack Johnson and Ryan Murray are fairly reasonably priced and locked into roles on the Blue Jackets power-play, so target them as you see fit.
Elite Plays
TOR: Dion Phaneuf
CBJ: Brandon Saad, Ryan Johansen, Nick Foligno
Secondary Plays
TOR: Tyler Bozak, James van Riemsdyk, Joffrey Lupul, Nazem Kadri, Morgan Rielly
CBJ: Brandon Dubinsky, Cam Atkinson, Scott Hartnell, Jack Johnson, Ryan Murray
Carolina Hurricanes at Detroit Red Wings – 07:30 PM EDT
| Carolina Hurricanes | Detroit Red Wings | ||||||||
 | Cam Ward |  | Jimmy Howard | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 30-41 | 43-25 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.23 | 2.67 | 18.80% | 84.70% | Team Stats | 2.82 | 2.57 | 23.80% | 80.90% |
The Hurricanes were beat up on by the Florida Panthers on Tuesday and will limp into the Joe Louis Arena with an ugly 0-3-0 record to start the season. This is the second time this season they’ll square off against the Detroit Red Wings, and while the 4-3 final score may not show it, Carolina really played pretty well and outshot the Red Wings 47-19. With that said, they’re heavy underdogs heading into tonight’s game and didn’t do much to improve themselves in the offseason after finishing in the cellar of the Atlantic Division last season and dropping all three of their contests against the Red Wings. On a fairly busy seven game slate, there’s just not a ton of appeal to this Carolina team in this matchup. However, Detroit did struggle mightily on the penalty kill down the stetch last season (76.2% kill rate after the All-Star break), so targeting the Carolina power-play does have some merit. With that in mind, Justin Faulk (who led the Hurricanes with 20 PPP last season) looks like a fine option on the blue-line, with Eric Staal, Kris Versteeg and Elias Lindholm all nice GPP targets.
The Wings looked sharp in Tuesday’s battle with the Tampa Bay Lightning and ultimately picked up a 3-1 victory to move to 3-0-0 on the young season. New Coach Jeff Blashill looks to have struck gold by stashing youngster Dylan Larkin alongside Justin Abdelkader and Henrik Zetterberg on the Wings top forward line as that combo has already accounted for seven goals in the first three games. While reinforcements are on the way in the names of Pavel Datsyuk, Johan Franzen and Darren Helm, Detroit has been able to utilize a healthy mix of new, young talent with proven veterans to roll four very solid forward lines. The Red Wings owned the 2nd best power-play in the NHL last season (and have hit at a 25% clip through the first three games), so that’s naturally a nice place to focus your fantasy attention tonight. The “Usual Suspects” are all very much in play tonight, with Teemu Pulkkinen and Tomas Tatar flying somewhat under the radar early on. On the blue-line, Niklas Kronwall and Mike Green are players to target.
Elite Plays
CAR: Justin Faulk
DET: Henrik Zetterberg, Justin Abdelkader, Gustav Nyquist, Mike Green, Jimmy Howard
Secondary Plays
CAR: Eric Staal, Jordan Staal, Kris Versteeg, Elias Lindholm
DET: Dylan Larkin, Teemu Pulkkinen, Tomas Tatar, Niklas Kronwall
Calgary Flames at Winnipeg Jets – 08:00 PM EDT
| Calgary Flames | Winnipeg Jets | ||||||||
 | Jonas Hiller |  | Ondrej Pavelec | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 45-30 | 43-26 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.89 | 2.60 | 18.80% | 80.60% | Team Stats | 2.72 | 2.49 | 17.80% | 81.80% |
The Flames head to Winnipeg fresh off of a disappointing loss to the St. Louis Blues, but they look to be a team on the rise and it’s unlikely we’ll see extended losing streaks often. They have another tough test tonight against the Jets, but they did take two of the three meetings between these two teams last season and scored 10 goals in the process. From a fantasy standpoint, breaking down this Calgary team is fairly simple; they have one dynamic offensive line with several very strong options on the blue-line. The Hudler/Monahan/Gaudreau combo emerged as one of the most dangerous lines in the NHL last season and have already combined for four goals and seven assists on the young season. On defense, the Flames are blessed with three impressive puck-moving defenseman. Mark Giordano may be the best option on most nights, but both Dougie Hamilton and Dennis Wideman offer plenty of offensive upside.
It’s the home opener for the Jets and the Winnipeg faithful will undoubtedly be rocking the MTS Centre. With opponents averaging 34 shots on goal per game against the Flames thus far this season, and Calgary seemingly willing to play up-tempo, the Jets should skate into plenty of chances offensively tonight. The Jets walked out of Madison Square Garden with two points after beating the Rangers 4-1, and now sport a 3-1-0 record and have lit the lamp 15 times in their first four games. The emergence of Mark Scheifele as their second line center has finally given the Jets a reliable secondary scoring option as the former first round pick has already picked up three goals this season. The Flames struggled on the penalty kill last season (80.6% PK), so targeting this Jets power=play that has already scored four goals (4 for 12) looks like a solid strategy. Up-front, Blake Wheeler has picked up power-play assists in three straight games and posted three points in two meetings with Calgary last season, making him my favorite play here. On defense, this looks like a terrific time to roll out Dustin Byfuglien as he has about as much offensive freedom as any other defenseman in the league and is locked into 20+ minutes of ice-time.
Elite Plays
CGY: Johnny Gaudreau, Jiri Hudler, Mark Giordano, Dougie Hamilton
WPG: Blake Wheeler, Bryan Little, Dustin Byfuglien
Secondary Plays
CGY: Sean Monahan, Sam Bennett, Dennis Wideman
WPG: Andrew Ladd, Mark Scheifele, Nikolaj Ehlers, Tobias Enstrom
Colorado Avalanche at Anaheim Ducks – 10:00 PM EDT
| Colorado Avalanche | Anaheim Ducks | ||||||||
 | Semyon Varlamov |  | Frederik Andersen | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 39-31 | 51-24 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.55 | 2.72 | 15.00% | 84.60% | Team Stats | 2.78 | 2.70 | 15.70% | 81.00% |
Both of these teams are not quite off to the starts they had envisioned, and after they were both embarrassed in their last outings, they’ll be hungry to turn things around quickly before they start to fall too far behind in the very competitive Western Conference. Unfortunately for the Avalanche, they’re not only the worst team in the league thus far this season by Corsi Standards (41.7 CF%), but they were also dominated by this Anaheim team last season. The Avalanche have already surrendered 14 goals over their first three games and Sergei Varlamov enters tonight’s game with an ugly 5.07 GAA and .841 SV%. With Colorado hitting the road for the first time of the season tonight, tread very carefully. With that said, there’s plenty of firepower to consider here. Gabriel Landeskog is off to a red-hot start and has already netted four goals and added a pair of assists in the first three games. Centered by the very talented Nathan MacKinnon, that line looks like a terrific GPP target. Francois Beauchemin was brought in to help stabilize this defensive core, but it’s been his offense making some noise early on as he’s already dished out five assists. Fellow blue-liner Erik Johnson joins Beauchemin on the point of the teams #2 power-play unit and he’s flashed some offensive upside with a pair of power-play goals already this season.
Despite their early season struggles, on paper this looks like a fine time to target Anaheim. While the 4-0 loss to the Coyotes was a bit disturbing for Ducks fans, Anaheim outshot the Coyotes 37-29 in the game and it was poor goaltending (from backup Anton Khudobin) that put them into a big hole early. They may have only scored one measly goal all season, but the Ducks cruised to an easy Pacific Division title last season, and it’s way too early to expect things to be any different this season. Offensively, it’s not a secret that things run through the lethal duo of Ryan Getzlaf and Corey Perry. They look like terrific plays and should be well worth their big-ticket asking price’s, but there’s also some hidden value on that line in Jiri Sekac. Sekac beat up on this Colorado team last season, scoring three goals and dishing out two assists in their four meetings. Ryan Kesler centers a solid looking secondary line alongside Carl Hagelin and Jakob Silfverberg, but until we see them start to mesh together, they’re better suited for GPP use. Colorado was terrific on the penalty kill last season, but the trio of puck moving defenseman (Vatanen, Lindholm and Fowler) all see time with the man advantage and are solid defensive options this evening.
Elite Plays
COL: None
ANA: Ryan Getzlaf, Corey Perry
Secondary Plays
COL: Gabriel Landeskog, Nathan MacKinnon, Matt Duchene, Erik Johnson, Francois Beauchemin
ANA: Jiri Sekac, Carl Hagelin, Sami Vatanen, Hampus Lindholm, Cam Fowler