NHL Grind Down: Saturday, October 17th
The RotoGrinders NHL Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the NHL schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy hockey there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, salaries, and more.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Hockey is an extremely high variance sport. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Remember, these write-ups are done prior to lineups being released, so make sure to check our Starting Lineups page to ensure the recommended options are playing.
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Buffalo Sabres at Tampa Bay Lightning – 07:00 PM EDT
| Buffalo Sabres | Tampa Bay Lightning | ||||||||
 | Robin Lehner |  | Ben Bishop | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 23-51 | 50-24 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 1.87 | 3.28 | 13.40% | 75.10% | Team Stats | 3.16 | 2.51 | 18.80% | 83.70% |
The Buffalo Sabres face the tough task of traveling to Tampa Bay to take on the Lightning tonight. While the new-look Sabres are undeniably an improved club from last season, they are still going through a rebound and bound to struggle this year, particularly on the defensive end. Jack Eichel is an early Calder candidate as rookie of the year and his production should see an added boost with veteran Brian Gionta returning from injury to play alongside him and Evander Kane. Coach Dan Bylsma appears to have moved Sam Reinhart up to center the top line of Tyler Ennis and Ryan O’Reilly while Cody Franson and Rasmus Ristolainen will quarterback the power play units for the Sabres. There are plenty of guys on this roster who could be viable options as DFS punt plays, but I don’t expect Buffalo to score much against Ben Bishop and the Lightning.
Tampa Bay was defeated by the Dallas Stars and their dynamic offense on Thursday, but is in a great spot to rebound against Buffalo tonight. Steven Stamkos had two goals and an assist last time out, bringing his to a point-per-game clip to start the year. Surprisingly, second-year player Jonathan Drouin leads the Lightning with six points and may finally be living up to expectations playing alongside Stamkos after being drafted third overall two years ago. The Triplets line of Ondrej Palat, Tyler Johnson, and Nikita Kucherov have yet to make a significant impact for the Lightning despite their numerous dominant performances last year. I’m still convinced this line has great chemistry and hopefully we will see the ownership on the Triplets decrease tonight, despite the great matchup, making them perfect tournament plays. Chad Johnson stars for Buffalo and is, frankly, a sub-par NHL goaltender. Also, Victor Hedman left Thursday’s game with an injury and has been ruled out tonight, therein further increasing Anton Stralman value as a strong play on defense.
Elite Plays:
BUF: None.
TBL: Steven Stamkos, Tyler Johnson, Jonathan Drouin
Secondary Plays:
BUF: Jack Eichel, Evander Kane, Ryan O’Reilly
TBL: Ondrej Palat, Nikita Kucherov, Ryan Callahan, Anton Stralman
Detroit Red Wings at Montreal Canadiens – 07:00 PM EDT
| Detroit Red Wings | Montreal Canadiens | ||||||||
 | Jimmy Howard |  | Carey Price | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 43-25 | 50-22 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.82 | 2.57 | 23.80% | 80.90% | Team Stats | 2.61 | 2.24 | 16.50% | 83.70% |
The Detroit Red Wings were outplayed by the Carolina Hurricanes last night in their first loss of the nascent season, but hope to bounce back tonight in Montreal against the Canadiens. Righting the ship won’t be easy, as the match-up for the Wings is far from ideal, particularly on the road on a back-to-back. The Canadiens’ Carey Price is the best goaltender in the world right now and I’m not particularly interested in those opposing him for fantasy purposes. Henrik Zetterberg has shown so far this season that he is still an top-echelon player (eight points in four games), but the goals will be hard to come by against Price. Keep an eye out for alterations to the Detroit lines as Coach Jeff Blashill did some tinkering during last night’s game (Gustav Nyquist was moved back to a line with Zetterberg and Justin Abdelkader for much of the game) and Darren Helm may return from injury. Petr Mrazek, who is still competing with Jimmy Howard for the starting role, gets the start tonight in goal. While Detroit appeared to be the chalk against Carolina last night, they are definitely a contrarian play tonight.
The Montreal Canadiens have opened the season 5-0-0, setting a new mark for the best start in their storied franchise’s history. Last time out, Carey Price and the Canadiens beat Henrik Lundqvist and the New York Rangers in one of the best goalie duels in recent memory. Price was absolutely out of his mind, playing like he has no intention of relinquishing his titles as reigning Vezina winner and league MVP. Captain Max Pacioretty paces the Montreal offense with four goals and six points over the first five games. Pacioretty’s linemate Tomas Plekanec already has four goals on the year and just signed a lucrative two-year extension. Defenseman P.K. Subban has four assists. Pacioretty, Plekanec, and Subban are a combined +21 through five games. While the match-up with Detroit isn’t spectacular, the Canadiens get the Wings at home and on a back-to-back, which sways the game significantly in Montreal’s favor (Vegas has Montreal as a -165 favorite).
Elite Plays
DET: Henrik Zetterberg
MTL: Max Pacioretty, Tomas Plekanec, P.K. Subban, Carey Price
Secondary Plays
DET: Justin Abdelkader, Gustav Nyquist, Dylan Larkin
MTL: Brendan Gallagher, Alex Galchenyuk, Andrei Markov, Tomas Fleischmann
Carolina Hurricanes at Washington Capitals – 07:00 PM EDT
| Carolina Hurricanes | Washington Capitals | ||||||||
 | Cam Ward |  | Braden Holtby | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 30-41 | 45-26 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.23 | 2.67 | 18.80% | 84.70% | Team Stats | 2.89 | 2.43 | 25.30% | 81.20% |
The Carolina Hurricanes attained their first win of the season by downing the previously undefeated Red Wings in a dominant performance yesterday and will look to carry that momentum forward against the Washington Capitals tonight. Eric Staal and Kris Versteeg both broke out against the Wings, notching a goal and two assists apiece while playing alongside rookie Brock McGinn (who also scored his first NHL goal in this game). Defenseman Justin Faulk also scored and is averaging a point-per-game to start the year. Though the Hurricanes played inspired hockey against the Wings, they are still likely to struggle this year and I would caution against putting too much stock in one performance. Carolina faces a tough matchup in Washington tonight as they are playing the second game of a back-to-back on the road. The Washington defense has improved significantly over the past few seasons and goaltender Braden Holtby is a legitimate candidate to back up Carey Price on team Canada at the 2016 World Cup of Hockey. Carolina’s game last night demonstrated the value of going contrarian in GPPs—-if you had exposure to the Staal-Versteeg-Faulk combination, you likely made some money. That being said, you need to choose your spots to be contrarian carefully and, for me, this isn’t one I like.
The Washington Capitals took down the Chicago Blackhawks in a strong performance on Thursday that featured the first multi-point effort of the season from new addition T.J. Oshie. Washington now gets to face the Carolina Hurricanes on the back-to-back at home. The Capitals are still waiting on the return of #1 center Nicklas Backstrom, but the top line of Alexander Ovechkin, Evgeny Kuznetsov, and T.J. Oshie may be starting to develop chemistry. In addition to Oshie’s two points against the Blackhawks, Ovechkin also scored and Kuznetsov had two assists. The emergence of John Carlson as a legitimate power play quarterback (Carlson leads the Capitals in points so far this year) has balanced the loss of Mike Green in free agency. While Carlson may be expensive on some sites, he provides a high-upside complement to the Washington top line / top power-play unit in tournaments. Goaltender Braden Holtby is one of my favorite on this slate, in large part due to Carolina’s habit of constantly putting shots on net. Carolina averaged over 30 shots a game over the course of the 2014-2015 season and is averaging 33 shots a game so far this year. Holtby is in a solid position to see plenty of shots and get the win. The Capitals are a -220 Vegas favorite.
Elite Plays
CAR: None.
WAS: Alex Ovechkin, Evgeny Kuznetsov, T.J. Oshie, John Carlson, Braden Holtby
Secondary Plays
CAR: Eric Staal, Kris Versteeg, Justin Faulk
WAS: Marcus Johansson, Justin Williams, Matt Niskanen
Nashville Predators at Ottawa Senators – 07:00 PM EDT
| Nashville Predators | Ottawa Senators | ||||||||
 | Pekka Rinne |  | Craig Anderson | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 47-25 | 43-26 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.76 | 2.46 | 16.20% | 80.80% | Team Stats | 2.83 | 2.54 | 16.80% | 82.90% |
The Predators head to Ottawa to face the Senators tonight in a game that features two teams looking to continue solid starts to the season. While Nashville suffered their first loss of the season last time out, James Neal hit the scoresheet twice as did his line-mate Filip Forsberg. Neal and Forsberg appear to have benefitted from some line juggling as their performance improved immediately after Mike Fisher was moved to center their line. For those who don’t know yet, James Neal is a pure sniper who once had 81 points in 80 games. It’s a boon to see him get going as he is chronically under-owned in GPPs. The matchup against a Senators team that is average on the defensive end is an okay one for the Predators, whose depth is constantly on display with three balanced scoring lines. The Senators don’t possess a dedicated shutdown line capable of slowing Forsberg and Neal. Roman Josi has been all over the scoresheet as of late and I expect the Nashville defensemen to continue to get involved on the offensive end. Let’s not forget to mention Pekka Rinne, who has been exceptional in net to start the year. I’ll say it again—-Rinne was a Vezina finalist last year and I expect him to compete for that crown once again this year.
The Ottawa Senators host Nashville looking to bounce back from a 2-0 defeat on Thursday at the hands of the Pittsburgh Penguins. Ottawa looks like they will be an exciting team to watch this year, but I’m concerned with how consistently their young core will show up. As admitted by many of the Senators following the defeat to the Penguins, the Sens came out extremely flat and played poorly away from the puck after having beaten up on Columbus 7-3 the night prior. The Mark Stone – Kyle Turris – Mike Hoffman line has been one of the league’s best to start the year, notching 16 points in just five games. Erik Karlsson has seven assists through five games and is an early Norris trophy favorite. Nashville is a tough matchup for anyone (and the Senators are no exception) as the Predators back end is among the best in the league. Vegas has this game as a pick-em, but I would lean toward Nashville if I were a betting man. Pekka Rinne is playing at a high level and I’m dubious that he will be beaten multiple times tonight.
NOTE: Pekka Rinne is NOT starting today. Carter Hutton gets the nod. While the Predators still possess a stout defense, Hutton is far from the goalie Rinne is. Bump to the Ottawa offense.
Elite Plays
NSH: Filip Forsberg, James Neal, Roman Josi
OTT: Erik Karlsson
Secondary Plays
NSH: Shea Weber, Mike Fisher, Craig Smith, Colin Wilson, Pekka Rinne
OTT: Mark Stone, Kyle Turris, Mike Hoffman, Bobby Ryan
Toronto Maple Leafs at Pittsburgh Penguins – 07:00 PM EDT
| Toronto Maple Leafs | Pittsburgh Penguins | ||||||||
 | Jonathan Bernier |  | Marc-Andre Fleury | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 30-44 | 43-27 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.51 | 3.13 | 15.90% | 80.50% | Team Stats | 2.65 | 2.49 | 19.30% | 84.80% |
Toronto won their first game of the season last night, scoring six goals in their defeat of the free-falling Blue Jackets. The Maple Leafs got balanced production from their lineup in the victory, with the primary standout being Daniel Winnik who potted three assists. This game was a bit of a surprise victory for the Leafs, but I’m not sure how much of the win was about Toronto improving as it was about Columbus being a complete and total mess. Additionally, Tyler Bozak left the game with an injury and appears doubtful to play tonight. Toronto will struggle this year as they rebuild and a back-to-back on the road at Pittsburgh is going to be a tough situation for them. While the leafs are vaguely in play as the ultimate contrarian GPP option, they aren’t in a good position to perform tonight against the -250 Vegas-favorite Penguins.
The Pittsburgh Penguins will look to build on Thursday’s shutout of the Senators when they face the Toronto Maple Leafs tonight. Toronto is in the unenviable position of facing a high-powered Penguins offense both on the road and on the back-to-back. Additionally, we get to see Phil Kessel with some added motivation as he faces his former team tonight. Sidney Crosby, the best player in the NHL, is shockingly without a point through four games this season, but no one would be surprised to see him notch his first (or second or third) of the year against the rebuilding Leafs. The Penguins have stacked their first power-play unit (Evgeni Malkin, Patrick Hornqvist, Kris Letang, Crosby and Kessel) in an effort to get their special teams going. Due to their lack of production to start the year, Crosby, Malkin, and Kessel all are still reasonably priced across the industry and make solid plays. I expect high ownership on Crosby and Kessel, but Malkin may go unnoticed and therein provide extreme upside as a tournament play.
Elite Plays
TOR: None.
PIT: Sidney Crosby, Phil Kessel, Evgeni Malkin, Kris Letang
Secondary Plays
TOR: James Van Riemsdyk, Joffrey Lupul
PIT: Patric Hornqvist, Chris Kunitz, Olli Maatta