NHL Grind Down: Thursday, December 29th - Page Three
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Anaheim Ducks at Calgary Flames
| Anaheim Ducks | Calgary Flames | ||||||||
 | John Gibson |  | Brian Elliott | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 17-12-7 | 19-16-2 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.69 | 2.81 | 24.10% | 80.80% | Team Stats | 2.65 | 2.84 | 19.20% | 81.30% |
Just as the Ducks seemed to be finding their groove, they’ve suddenly suddenly dropped three straight games and have fallen into third place in the Pacific Division. They’ll head to Calgary for the third meeting against the Flames this season with revenge on their mind after being embarrassed 8-3 in their last visit. Early reports out of Ducks camp today are that Randy Carlyle is tinkering with his forward lines. If the reports are true and Ryan Getzlaf and Corey Perry are separated, it’s not great news for either superstar but may at least open up some value options. I’ll come back with an update after we hear news following their morning skate. With that said, the impact is going to be somewhat mitigated by the fact that it’s the Anaheim power-play that will have my attention this evening. The Calgary Flames happen to be the most penalized team in the NHL and Anaheim owns a Western Conference best 24.1% power-play. This bumps Getzlaf, Perry, Kesler and Rickard Rakell all up my rankings this evening up-front. On defense, Sami Vatanen will miss tonight’s game, which means all the minutes Cam Fowler can handle on the blue-line. He’s already posted 22 points in 36 games and holds the reigns as the quarterback of the #1 power-play unit. Vatanen’s absence also opens the door for a much more significant role for both Hampus Lindholm and Shea Theodore. Both players have shown plenty of offensive upside when given the opportunity in the past and both remain very reasonably priced across the industry. Again, the morning skate should reveal a bit more about how Randy Carlyle plans to utilize his defenseman.
The Flames were one of the most disappointing teams in the entire NHL last season, and after an ugly 10-13-2 start to the season, hopes were dwindling in Calgary around Thanksgiving time. However, they’ve come alive lately and posted a 9-3-0 record over their last 12 games and are now right in the thick of the playoff hunt in the Western Conference. Offensively, they’re lead by Johnny Gaudreau who’s tallied 25 points (9 goals and 16 assists) in 27 games this season. He leads Sam Bennett and Alex Chiasson on the top forward line while also seeing plenty of exposure to his former partner-in-crime Sean Monahan on the #1 power-play unit. Alternatively, Mikael Backlund has heated up lately with four goals and three assists in his last four games and headlines a dangerous secondary scoring unit alongside Matthew Tkachuk and Michael Frolik. Backlund was forced out of Tuesday’s game early after a blocked shot, but all reports thus far have him ready to suit up this evening. All of the forwards previously mentioned do see a healthy dose of playing time with the man-advantage which should bode well for them as Anaheim is also one of the most heavily penalized teams in the NHL. On defense, Calgary has several appealing options. Mark Giordano is a known commodity and draws plenty of attention (for good reason) as he routinely put up impressive offensive numbers over the past three years. However, it’s actually Dougie Hamilton that leads the group with 21 points in 35 games this season and his advanced metrics imply that we can expect much more of the same going forward.
Anaheim Ducks
Team Metrics – 2016-17 – 49.3 CF%, 5×5 Goal Differential -6, 107.37 CP60
Elite Options
Ryan Getzlaf ($7,500 FD, $6,100 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 52.4 CF60, 2.66 xGF60, 98.18 PDO
Corey Perry ($6,800 FD, $6,400 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 56.52 CF60, 2.74 xGF60, 98.7 PDO
Secondary Options
Ryan Kesler ($6,900 FD, $6,300 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 56.52 CF60, 2.77 xGF60, 101.53 PDO
Rickard Rakell ($5,900 FD, $6,200 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 48.64 CF60, 2.35 xGF60, 102.11 PDO
Jakob Silfverberg ($5,800 FD, $5,400 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 55.06 CF60, 2.68 xGF60, 102.7 PDO
Shea Theodore ($3,600 FD, $3,400 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 54.82 CF60, 2.33 xGF60, 93.89 PDO
Expected Netminder
John Gibson – My Ratings (out of 10): 6 Cash, 7 GPP
Calgary Flames
Team Metrics – 2016-17 – 49.95 CF%, 5×5 Goal Differential -7, 110.61 CP60
Elite Options
Johnny Gaudreau ($7,500 FD, $6,900 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 55.6 CF60, 2.52 xGF60, 96.56 PDO
Mark Giordano ($6,300 FD, $5,600 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 60.14 CF60, 2.58 xGF60, 101.02 PDO
Dougie Hamilton ($6,000 FD, $5,500 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 68.09 CF60, 3.08 xGF60, 98.25 PDO
Secondary Options
Sean Monahan ($6,700 FD, $6,100 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 57.08 CF60, 2.36 xGF60, 98.2 PDO
Sam Bennett ($4,800 FD, $5,000 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 50.87 CF60, 2.07 xGF60, 99.06 PDO
Mikael Backlund ($5,300 FD, $5,400 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 61.51 CF60, 2.8 xGF60, 98.81 PDO
Michael Frolik ($4,700 FD, $4,800 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 62.39 CF60, 2.87 xGF60, 96.75 PDO
T.J. Brodie ($4,400 FD, $4,000 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 48.42 CF60, 1.87 xGF60, 95.67 PDO
Expected Netminder
Brian Elliott – My Ratings (out of 10): 6 Cash, 7 GPP
Los Angeles Kings at Edmonton Oilers
| Los Angeles Kings | Edmonton Oilers | ||||||||
 | Jeff Zatkoff |  | Cam Talbot | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 17-13-4 | 18-12-6 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.53 | 2.38 | 16.00% | 84.70% | Team Stats | 2.86 | 2.64 | 21.20% | 82.00% |
Despite outshooting the Canucks by a 37-20 margin, Los Angeles just couldn’t solve Ryan Miller and were disappointed to leave Vancouver without any points last night. They won’t have time to recover as they make the short trip to Edmonton for a very important battle with Edmonton Oilers. Tyler Toffoli aside, Darryl Sutter finally has his core group of forwards back in the lineup and it’s his top two lines that are responsible for a disproportionate chunk of their scoring. Jeff Carter is well out front for the team lead with 30 points in 35 games. The veteran center has picked up at least one point in each of the last four games and scored a goal and added an assist against the Oilers in their only previous meeting this season. Tanner Pearson continues to benefit from playing alongside him on the top forward line and Devin Setoguchi has moved up to fill in for the injured Toffoli, though his fantasy upside is severely limited. This leaves Captain Anze Kopitar to center Dustin Brown and Marian Gaborik on their other main scoring line, but I do expect that group to have some added defensive responsibilities tonight with Connor McDavid certainly on Coach Sutter’s mind. Drew Doughty took home the Norris Trophy for the NHL’s best defenseman last season, but the case could be argued that he hasn’t even been the best defenseman on his own team this time around. Alec Martinez has definitely emerged as a star defenseman in the NHL and owns six goals and 13 assists in 35 games. Throw in the fact that he’s receiving consistent playing time alongside Doughty on the point of the #1 power-play unit and has already racked up 72 blocked shots this season, and he’s a rock solid option in all formats (and still cheap in some places, to boot).
Ever since their 7-1-0 start to the season, the Edmonton Oilers have been one of the most inconsistent teams in the NHL. They’ve seen losing streaks of three games or higher on four separate occasions this season and enter tonight’s game having fired just 18 shots at towards Martin Jones in Tuesday’s overtime loss against the San Jose Sharks. Behind the bench, Todd McLellan has done what he can to create some scoring depth, but it’s no secret that this offense runs directly through Connor McDavid. McDavid leads the entire NHL with 42 points and both Jordan Eberle and Milan Lucic benefit greatly from playing alongside the Phenom on the top forward line. McDavid has definitely pushed himself into the “Matchup-Proof” tier of NHL super-stars, but he likely going to see a very heavy dose of Anze Kopitar in this matchup and that’s enough to at least make you ponder if he’s going to be worth his lofty asking price in cash games. Alternatively, Leon Draisaitl is emerging as another dangerous offensive weapon. The former fourth overall pick has posted 14 goals and 17 assists in 36 games and has been particularly hot lately with seven goals and seven assists in just 12 games this month. He joins McDavid on the top power-play unit and has developed a very nice rapport with Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Patrick Maroon on the second forward line. On defense, both Andrej Sekera and Oscar Klefbom soak up the majority of the playing time with the man-advantage and are therefore the two best options to target. However, Los Angeles does own a rock solid 84.7% penalty kill which does take some of the appeal away, but that’s also offset by the fact that they’re playing in the second half of back-to-back games.
Los Angeles Kings
Team Metrics – 2016-17 – 54.28 CF%, 5×5 Goal Differential 5, 107.94 CP60
Elite Options
Jeff Carter ($7,700 FD, $7,100 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 60.09 CF60, 2.42 xGF60, 101.59 PDO
Drew Doughty ($6,300 FD, $5,300 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 58.75 CF60, 2.46 xGF60, 100.8 PDO
Alec Martinez ($4,800 FD, $5,000 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 60.34 CF60, 2.62 xGF60, 96.39 PDO
Secondary Options
Anze Kopitar ($6,800 FD, $5,600 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 62.95 CF60, 2.82 xGF60, 98.37 PDO
Tanner Pearson ($4,800 FD, $4,600 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 64.83 CF60, 2.47 xGF60, 101.99 PDO
Marian Gaborik ($4,700 FD, $5,100 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 64.12 CF60, 3.43 xGF60, 97.86 PDO
Jake Muzzin ($4,400 FD, $4,200 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 64.36 CF60, 2.58 xGF60, 95.41 PDO
Expected Netminder
Jeff Zatkoff – My Ratings (out of 10): 5.5 Cash, 6 GPP
Edmonton Oilers
Team Metrics – 2016-17 – 51.06 CF%, 5×5 Goal Differential 5, 110.48 CP60
Elite Options
Connor McDavid ($8,700 FD, $8,000 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 60.53 CF60, 2.98 xGF60, 102.12 PDO
Leon Draisaitl ($6,600 FD, $6,200 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 56.42 CF60, 2.58 xGF60, 100.51 PDO
Secondary Options
Milan Lucic ($5,700 FD, $5,800 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 58.07 CF60, 2.78 xGF60, 98.39 PDO
Jordan Eberle ($6,400 FD, $5,700 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 61.48 CF60, 2.84 xGF60, 98.76 PDO
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins ($5,800 FD, $4,800 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 58.02 CF60, 2.39 xGF60, 96.23 PDO
Andrej Sekera ($4,400 FD, $4,600 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 53.87 CF60, 2.46 xGF60, 102.12 PDO
Expected Netminder
Cam Talbot – My Ratings (out of 10): 6 Cash, 7 GPP