NHL Grind Down: Thursday, March 23rd - Page Two

by Ben (benwell311) Last Updated 2017-03-23 17:44:16

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New Jersey Devils at Toronto Maple Leafs

New Jersey Devils					Toronto Maple Leafs
			Cory Schneider					Curtis McElhinney
			Record					Record
			27-33-12					34-23-15
Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
Team Stats	2.28	2.90	18.60%	80.50%	Team Stats	3.09	2.79	23.80%	83.40%

Devils 5v5 (adj), past 25 games: 47.1 CF% / 43 GF% / 48 xGF%
Maple Leafs 5v5 (adj), past 25 games: 49.8 CF% / 50.1 GF% / 52.4 xGF%

Don’t look now, but here comes the Devils’ offense…sort of. Context matters in this case as New Jersey has one of the worst offenses in the league, but they’ve actually been scoring goals lately. Tonight’s matchup in Toronto is beneficial for the team to keep scoring, too, as they’ll get a high-event Maple Leaf team likely starting a backup goalie. Nothing can be taken for granted with the Devils, but Taylor Hall and Kyle Palmieri aren’t going down with the ship. Things get real sketchy, real fast after those two. Top line center Travis Zajac, despite his all-situation exposure to the hot wingers, has a very low floor and his lack of shot volume limits his ceiling as well. The Maple Leafs will likely stick Nazem Kadri out there at 5v5 against the top line, likely exclusively, so some of the fun is lost. Still, Toronto plays a high-event game, have been allowing oodles of shots, and the Devils will most certainly be playing catch-up most of the night. Forwards off the top line, especially those that go against the Tyler Bozak line would be in a better position to stack, but things fall off fast. With no Michael Cammalleri, the likes of Beau Bennett and Joseph Blandisi are playing next to Adam Henrique on the second line. Miles Wood and Pavel Zacha are currently occupying roles in the bottom six, so while they see time on the top power play unit, their 5v5 issues negate their man-advantage usage. Zacha is more interesting, but again, with 21 other teams in action, there are higher floor/upside value plays. Andy Greene now patrols the blueline on the top power play unit. He’s not going to get confused for Scott Niedermayer any time soon and his upside is severely limited.

The Maple Leafs having a high-end coach is going to pay off tonight, as after a high tempo game in Columbus against a top team, the lowly Devils could get mentally overlooked. Toronto needs all the points they can get right now and while New Jersey should theoretically be happy to give them up, professional players don’t think like armchair GMs. The low-event Devils have typically received top-end goaltending from Cory Schneider, but that has not been the case. He’s in something of a timeshare with Keith Kinkaid, but neither goalie presents a matchup red flag for Toronto. Both goalies are slightly below average in 5v5 save percentage to date, with Kinkaid poor on high-danger shots and Schneider strong. The focus is on the goaltenders here as though the Devils show poor 5v5 defensive numbers for the Leafs offense, the tempo Toronto plays is light speed compared to that of New Jersey. There shouldn’t be much issue exposing the Devils’ subpar defensive group. New Jersey does not have an overly impressive penalty kill (80.5%), so top three power play of Toronto figures to generate some quality chances on the advantage. Tyler Bozak, James van Riemsdyk, and Mitchell Marner play together at 5v5 and on the power play, where they have been the more used unit. Given that they won’t have any real matchup worries, they are a high-end stack once again.

Devils Elite Plays: None
Devils Secondary Plays:Taylor Hall, Kyle Palmieri, Travis Zajac, Pavel Zacha

Maple Leafs Elite Plays:Mitchell Marner, James van Riemsdyk, Auston Matthews, William Nylander, Tyler Bozak
Maple Leafs Secondary Plays:Nazem Kadri, Zach Hyman, Jake Gardiner, Morgan Reilly, Nikita Zaitsev

Calgary Flames at Nashville Predators

Calgary Flames					Nashville Predators
			Chad Johnson					Pekka Rinne
			Record					Record
			41-28-4					36-25-11
Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
Team Stats	2.73	2.67	19.60%	80.70%	Team Stats	2.92	2.75	20.20%	79.90%

Flames 5v5 (adj), past 25 games: 51.5 CF% / 55.4 GF% / 49.7 xGF%
Predators 5v5 (adj), past 25 games: 51.2 CF% / 49 GF% / 51.7 xGF%

While many expected Calgary to hit a proverbial Washington wall following a winning streak at home, the Flames didn’t come out completely flat against the Caps. One area of concern? They struggled mightily to slow down Washington’s dangerous top line. Now that they’re on the road they can’t dictate the matchups and keep their preferred lines and defensive pairings out against opposing forward lines. Similarly, they can’t matchup their preferred offensive draws and that can be a problem tonight in Nashville. The Predators have the personnel to slow opposing top lines and the word is out on the Mikael Backlund line. That could conceivably set up Sean Monahan and Johnny Gaudreau, although Nashville certainly doesn’t fall off after their top assignments. With Pekka Rinne likely in net the defensive matchups are muted somewhat as Rinne hasn’t been impressive this year. Calgary is a sneaky GPP team for this reason, though Rinne has been better at home compared to on the road. In addition to the top line seeing difficult minutes against the Ryan Johansen forward line and Roman Josi on the blueline, Matthew Tkachuk’s absence takes one-third of the dangerous chemistry mixture out of the equation. Therefore, if looking to sneak some Flames (the Calgary kind) in to tournaments, Monahan and Gaudreau may be the way to go. Nashville’s penalty kill isn’t anything special so pairing a defender with either line could be beneficial; T.J. Brodie plays with Monahan/Gaudreau on the top line and he’s a GPP only play with a very low floor. Mark Giordano and Dougie Hamilton log heavy 5v5 minutes and play with the Backlund line on the power play.

The (likely) matchup between Nashville’s top line of Ryan Johansen, Filip Forsberg, and Viktor Arvidsson against Calgary’s line of Mikael Backlund, Michael Frolik, and Sam Bennett is going to be a good one. While both have been among the best CF% trios in the league, the Calgary line has been a bit better in xGF/60 and neither have a high xGA/60. That said, there aren’t many lines in the league playing better than Nashville’s top one right now, and that should continue tonight. While ownership has been high here, the combination of a reasonable Vegas line, heavy slate, and facing a hot Brian Elliott could keep ownership low. Nashville has the theoretical secondary scoring to look deeper for DFS purposes, but scoring has been limited outside of the top line of late. The line of Calle Jarnkrok, James Neal, and Kevin Fiala is a solid group that have offensive upside. They are mostly cheap, too, and Neal plays on the top power play unit. This line figures to draw out against the Gaudreau line so the on-ice matchups shouldn’t be overly burdensome. Blueline contributions have been plentiful for Nashville this year. While chasing Ryan Ellis’ two-goal game from two nights ago may not pay off, he’s been a steady if low ceiling option all year. P.K. Subban continues knocking on the door of a big game, and while he hasn’t paid the bills in DFS he’s clocked in with nice ownership compared to the upside.

Flames Elite Plays: None
Flames Secondary Plays:Johnny Gaudreau, Sean Monahan, Dougie Hamilton

Predators Elite Plays:Filip Forsberg, Viktor Arvidsson, Roman Josi
Predators Secondary Plays:James Neal, Ryan Johansen, P.K. Subban, Calle Jarnkrok, Ryan Ellis, Kevin Fiala

Philadelphia Flyers at Minnesota Wild

Philadelphia Flyers					Minnesota Wild
			Steve Mason					Devan Dubnyk
			Record					Record
			33-31-8					44-22-6
Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
Team Stats	2.53	2.94	19.60%	79.30%	Team Stats	3.24	2.45	21.30%	83.80%

Flyers 5v5 (adj), past 25 games: 50.3 CF% / 43.5 GF% / 47.1 xGF%
Wild 5v5 (adj), past 25 games: 49.5 CF% / 48.8 GF% / 55.3 xGF%

Following a letdown in what should have been a high scoring game in Winnipeg, the Flyers will visit another Central Division team in a hostile environment. The Flyers boast one of the lowest 5v5 xGF/60 this year while they will square off with a team sporting one of the lowest xGA/60. Philadelphia’s offense just isn’t generating consistent offense at the moment (with the exception of Sean Couturier). Scoring just twice on just 26 shots on goal on Michael “.897” Hutchinson last game, the walk will be more uphill tonight. The Wild aren’t the dominant team they were earlier in the year, to be sure, but Devan Dubnyk is showing signs of turning things around. While their CA/60 rate has deteriorated over the past several months, Minnesota is looking to clamp down on the volume of shots against. This makes them a difficult team to attack for DFS purposes as they’ve maintained elite scoring chance and high-danger shot attempt allowed rates per 60 all year. So the offensively challenged Flyers will deal with a defense that is improving is quantity allowed while still not allowing much in the way of quality. The aforementioned Couturier is the best offensive threat for the Flyers right now, but he’s locked in to a third line, second power play unit role so his floor is low. He’s posted a goal, five assists, and 16 shots on net over the past five games while having one of the better CF/60 numbers of Philadelphia’s regulars. At his price he’s a value option in tournaments, though the matchup makes him risky for cash games. Claude Giroux’s struggles continue, and he figures to see a fair amount of Ryan Suter and Jared Spurgeon, which limits his line’s shot quality upside. In all, for the Flyers to come through tonight they will need to make every shot count and hope for Dubnyk to continue his struggles. Despite the mostly poor play from Dubnyk over the past few weeks, he still has a .927 save percentage in all situations.

On the flipside, the Wild enjoy a nice matchup on home ice tonight. The Flyers aren’t an elite defense by any means, and while they aren’t the Coyotes either, Minnesota’s forward group should be able to take advantage tonight. Philadelphia plays something of a high-event game which leads to one of the higher CA/60 rates on the slate tonight. Minnesota’s xGF/60 remains in a nice spot at 2.68 goals per game at 5v5, driven mostly be a strong high-danger shot attempt ratio. What really puts the cherry on top of this matchup for the Wild is that both Steve Mason and Michal Neuvirth rank right at the bottom of the league in 5v5 high-danger save percentage. This gives the Wild forwards a nice ceiling tonight, though the floor isn’t quite as lofty as the Flyers do tend to keep the shot attempts allowed to lower quality. Still, the Wild can poor on quality scoring chances and they should be fine tonight. The only key players that create unfavorable matchups are Sean Couturier up front and Radko Gudas and Michael del Zotto on the second pairing. With Minnesota on home ice they should be able to keep any one line away from that pairing for the majority of the night, so look for the time to spread among the top six. Nino Niederreiter is back down to the third line and he could be spared the tough matchups. He’s a very strong possession player that should matchup well in this one. Eric Staal is finding his groove again and is back to having Zach Parise and Charlie Coyle on his wings. While Parise’s a name brand that comes at a higher price than perhaps he should, Coyle’s price is head scratchingly low on FD. This line has been coming on of late, with Parise and Coyle finding the scoresheet in three straight games and Staal two of the past three. The more expensive top line of Mikko Koivu, Mikael Granlund, and Jason Zucker remain a high-end option. Bruce Boudreau keeps things simple and makes the DFS crowd happy by keeping the top two lines together on the top two power play units, respectively, with the Granlund line seeing a bit more time together on the advantage over the past three. For defensive correlation plays, Suter and Mathew Dumba skate with the Staal line while Jared Spurgeon plays with the Koivu group. Philadelphia is middle of the pack in terms of the number of penalties they’ve taken but their penalty kill is nothing to write home about, further enhancing Minnesota’s outlook.

Flyers Elite Plays: None
Flyers Secondary Plays:Sean Couturier, Jakub Voracek, Wayne Simmonds, Jordan Weal

Wild Elite Plays:Eric Staal, Charlie Coyle, Mikael Granlund, Mikko Koivu, Nino Niederreiter, Zach Parise, Mathew Dumba
Wild Secondary Plays:Jason Zucker, Martin Hanzal, Jared Spurgeon

Vancouver Canucks at St. Louis Blues

Vancouver Canucks					St. Louis Blues
			Ryan Miller					Jake Allen
			Record					Record
			29-34-9					39-28-5
Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
Team Stats	2.27	2.90	14.10%	77.30%	Team Stats	2.78	2.69	22.30%	84.60%

Canucks 5v5 (adj), past 25 games: 46.3 CF% / 43.8 GF% / 46.7 xGF%
Blues 5v5 (adj), past 25 games: 49.1 CF% / 60.9 GF% / 50.3 xGF%

Congratulations to the Canucks on a surprising road win over the Blackhawks two nights ago. What’s more is that the game was high scoring, yet the boys from Vancouver held their own. Their reward is… a road draw against the Blues. Well then. The Canucks will once again have their work cut out for them as the Blues boast strong defensive metrics. While their 5v5 CA/60 is “high” by their standards (it’s still low), the scoring chances and high-danger shot attempts allowed remain extremely low. Given that Vancouver has one of the lowest xGF/60 at 5v5 in the league, chasing the outburst in Chicago is ill advised. Even sans Shattenkirk, St. Louis sports supremely stout statistics on the blueline. Jake Allen is playing well, too. While we’ve seen Brandon Sutter (two goals against Chicago) go on runs this year, he’s locked in a tough spot as the defensive forward of choice for the Canucks. Though it’s on the road he’s still unlikely to see weaker defensive metrics. With the Blues heavy favorites tonight, the Canucks become nothing more than deeply contrarian tournament plays.

Things are better on the other side of the arches, so to speak, as the Blues will draw an inferior opponent on home ice. Vancouver’s defense is subpar and they have been allowing a good deal of high-danger shot attempts. They sport one of the higher 5v5 xGA/60 rates at 2.62 and the penalty kill is below average. Expect heavy ownership on Vladimir Tarasenko in all formats, and for good reason. Even for a lackluster offense like the Blues, this is a 30+ shot on goal game. Paul Stastny won’t suit up for the next batch of games, so the top line center role is up for grabs as Jori Lehtera remains out with a concussion. Tarasenko has thrived with Lehtera so whomever fills the role will be a solid play with a likely discount. If Alex Steen holds fills in on the top line, St. Louis’ top line becomes quite attractive, even if Steen is having a down year. Jaden Schwartz joins Tarasenko on the top line and while he can disappear at times, he has 13 shots on net in his past two games and skates with Vlad at 5v5 and on the top power play unit. Patrik Berglund is heating up again and sports a nice high-danger CF/60 at 5v5, making him a viable option for the budget minded tonight. Even David Perron is showing a pulse of late, but outside of Tarasenko cash game options up front are light.

Canucks Elite Plays: None
Canucks Secondary Plays:Daniel Sedin, Bo Horvat, Brandon Sutter

Blues Elite Plays:Vladimir Tarasenko, Jaden Schwartz, Alex Pietrangelo, Alex Steen (if he plays on the top line)
Blues Secondary Plays:Patrik Berglund, David Perron, Colton Parayko

Dallas Stars at Chicago Blackhawks

Dallas Stars					Chicago Blackhawks
			Kari Lehtonen					Corey Crawford
			Record					Record
			29-33-10					47-20-6
Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
Team Stats	2.73	3.14	18.10%	74.00%	Team Stats	2.99	2.50	19.10%	77.70%

Stars 5v5 (adj), past 25 games: 49.5 CF% / 46.4 GF% / 49.1 xGF%
Blackhawks 5v5 (adj), past 25 games: 52.2 CF% / 57.6 GF% / 48.4 xGF%

A game against a fast paced Central Division foe could be the cure for what ails the Stars offense. Well, with the exception of Jason Spezza who probably needs a cortisone injection and some NSAIDs. While Spezza’s absence does hurt the high-end Dallas offensive options, the fact is the Stars offense has the talent to score more than they have been lately. The Blackhawks have been tightening their game up as they gear up for the playoffs (probably not related) so the Chicago CA/60 and high-danger shot attempts per 60 are dropping at 5v5. Dallas, with serious struggles in their own zone, are far from the feared barn burning unit of yesteryear. Jamie Benn has just three shots on goal in his past three games and no points in previous five. Similarly Tyler Seguin have just one goal in his previous five efforts, though at least he’s shooting a bit. These players still come at a high price tag so betting on the talent is pricey. With the game in Chicago it will be interesting to see how Niklas Hjalmarsson is deployed. As Benn and Seguin are split at the moment, he could track the hot hand – which prior to puckdrop would be Seguin. It’s a theoretical nice problem for Dallas as they can cheat the tough matchup some. Chicago, and Corey Crawford in particular, will look to bounce back from a very poor game against Vancouver a few nights ago. If the Canucks can come through, why can’t the Stars? Dallas has some sneaky GPP appeal as heavy road underdogs though the game does feature an O/U of 6. There are some interesting value plays that help offset the high cost of the Stars’ stars. Brett Ritchie is a personal favorite and he’s playing next to Seguin on the second line. He’s a solid shooter that needs this expanded opportunity. Radek Faksa plays something of a two-way game but has similarly flashed some upside when given the right role. Patrick Sharp continues to shoot, though he has just two goals in February and March combined to show for his efforts. He’s skating on the top power play unit, and given Chicago’s struggles on the penalty kill this year, he’s not a bad upside play.

The rich may get richer tonight as the surging Chicago offense welcomes one of the worst defenses, penalty kills, and goaltending situations in the league. As heavy Vegas favorites in a high over/under game, expect high ownership among the Blackhawks. Patrick Kane and Artemi Panarin are back in a groove and have seemingly not missed Artem Anisimov. The etymologically perfect Chicago center Nick Schmaltz has fit in well on the top scoring line and remains a strong value play. The line has massive upside almost every game, especially at home, and a high floor to boot. Marian Hossa returned from injury after a two game absence and promptly scored, while Jonathan Toews is helping John Hayden get his career started off on the right foot. Basically the offense is finely tuned right now and tonight’s matchup shouldn’t cause any misfires. While ownership will concentrate on the Kane line, there are enough pieces with upside tonight to get some exposure to the Hawks without going all-in on the chalk. As always, picking the right blueliner to pair with the forward group is a 50/50 proposition that goes your way 10% of the time. Both Duncan Keith and Brent Seabrook have been contributing on offense of late, so it’s likely to come down to a matter of salary. Keith plays on the top power play unit but also costs more, generally.

Stars Elite Plays:Tyler Seguin, Patrick Sharp, John Klingberg
Stars Secondary Plays:Jamie Benn, Brett Ritchie, Radek Faksa, Remi Elie, Stephen Johns

Blackhawks Elite Plays:Patrick Kane, Artemi Panarin, Marian Hossa, Jonathan Toews, Nick Schmaltz, Duncan Keith
Blackhawks Secondary Plays:John Hayden, Ryan Hartman, Richard Panik, Brent Seabrook

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