NHL Grind Down: Wednesday, October 21st

by John Britt (jmbwngfn) Last Updated 2015-10-22 21:25:06

The RotoGrinders NHL Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the NHL schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy hockey there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, salaries, and more.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Hockey is an extremely high variance sport. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Remember, these writeups are done prior to lineups being released, so make sure to check our Starting Lineups page to ensure the recommended options are playing.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Please note that the win/loss numbers listed below represent each team’s 2014-15 team record and do not currently account for overtime losses.

Toronto Maple Leafs at Buffalo Sabres – 07:00 PM EDT

Toronto Maple Leafs					Buffalo Sabres
			Jonathan Bernier					Robin Lehner
			Record					Record
			30-44					23-51
Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
Team Stats	2.51	3.13	15.90%	80.50%	Team Stats	1.87	3.28	13.40%	75.10%

Oh boy, get your DVR’s ready for this collision of two powerhouses! Toronto will make the short trip down to Buffalo tonight, with last place in the Atlantic Division on the line between the Maple Leafs and the Sabres. Rarely are either of these two teams viable targets in daily fantasy hockey, but with them facing each other and only four games on the docket this evening, this game demands your attention despite it’s expected ugliness. These were two of the worst teams in the league last season and expecting huge improvements this year seems silly. They split their four meetings in the 2015-16 season, but with the Sabres seemingly a bit more improved and having home ice-advantage, that’s actually the way I’m leaning here. The loss of Phil Kessel is a huge blow to the offensive outlook for the Maple Leafs, but they’re hoping to see guys like Nazem Kadri, Joffrey Lupul and Tyler Bozak (who is not available tonight) take a big step forward offensively this season. Nazem Kadri has flashed tremendous offensive ability in the past, and while he’s only lit the lamp on one occasion so far this season, he’s unloaded 27 shots on goal already and won’t stay too quiet for long. With proven contributor James van Riemsdyk to his left on the top forward line and #1 power-play unit, that duo offers some nice value here. With the Sabres posting the league’s worst penalty kill (among many other things), getting any exposure to the Maple Leafs power-play seems like a fine strategy. With that in mind, both Dion Phaneuf and Morgan Rielly emerge as fine blue-line options.

The Sabres will likely finish near the bottom of the Eastern Conference once again this season, but this is not the 2014-15 version of this Buffalo team. Evander Kane is healthy, they brought in Ryan O’Reilly from Colorado, they signed Cody Franson to help stabilize their blue-line, and perhaps most importantly, they drafted one of the top young talents in ages, Jack Eichel. While they may be just 1-4-0 to start the season, they’ve actually outshot their opponents in total thus far and should only continue to improve as this young team starts to learn to play together. The Evander Kane, Jack Eichel and whomever line (for now, Jamie McGinn) will likely be the most popular selection from this squad, but each of the top three lines actually have at least some merit tonight. On the blue-line, Cody Franson is the top option and slated for big minutes on the point of their #1 power-play unit. All-in-all, there’s a ton of value to take advantage of on this Buffalo roster and this is one of the few times you’ll be able to somewhat safely roll them out in cash games.

Elite Plays

TOR: Nazem Kadri, James van Riemsdyk, Dion Phaneuf
BUF: Jack Eichel, Evander Kane, Ryan O’Reilly

Secondary Plays

TOR: Joffrey Lupul, Leo Komarov, Morgan Rielly
BUF: Matt Moulson, Sam Reinhart, Cody Franson

Philadelphia Flyers at Boston Bruins – 08:00 PM EDT

Philadelphia Flyers					Boston Bruins
			Michal Neuvirth					Tuukka Rask
			Record					Record
			33-31					41-27
Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
Team Stats	2.59	2.72	23.40%	77.10%	Team Stats	2.55	2.45	17.80%	82.00%

The Flyers lost a hard-fought 2-1 decision to the Dallas Stars last night and will make the short trip to Boston to battle the Bruins on very short rest tonight. From a fantasy standpoint, breaking down this Flyers team is very easy; Jakub Voracek and Claude Giroux pretty much run this offense. While guys like Wayne Simmonds and Mark Streit both offer plenty of fantasy potential as well, Giroux and Voracek are the clear top targets. However, with Patrice Bergeron and Brad Marchand combining to form one of the toughest defensive matchups for opposing forwards, a road game in Boston just doesn’t seem like the time to invest in their hefty salaries. The Bruins are well rested and had their way with Philadelphia last season, so even on a four game slate, i’m going to limit by exposure to this Philadelphia squad.

The Bruins were lit up in each of their first three games (all loses) but have flipped the script in the last two; winning both games while racking up 11 goals. While the Flyers were busy batting the Dallas Stars last night, Boston has been off since Saturday and definitely wins the battle of fresh legs. Boston won all three meetings between these teams last year and, despite several new faces, are still a much deeper hockey club than the Flyers. Offensively, the Bruins rely heavily on their top two lines, but it’s been David Krejci leading the charge to start the season. The veteran center has started the season on a tear, and has now racked up four goals and five assists over their first five games. With Bergeron and Marchand doing their best to slow down Giroux/Voracek, Claude Julien will be hoping he can stay red-hot. With Dougie Hamilton gone and Zdeno Chara on the down-side of his career, Torey Krug has established himself as the best fantasy option on the Boston blue-line. The talented 24 year-old has already dished out six assists on the young season and should see the lions share of the playing time on the point of the Bruins power-play.

Elite Plays

PHI: None
BOS: David Krejci, Patrice Bergeron, Torey Krug

Secondary Plays

PHI: Claude Giroux, Jakub Voracek, Wayne Simmonds, Michael Raffl, Mark Streit
BOS: Loui Eriksson, Matt Beleskey, Ryan Spooner, Zdeno Chara

Detroit Red Wings at Edmonton Oilers – 09:30 PM EDT

Detroit Red Wings					Edmonton Oilers
			Jimmy Howard					Ben Scrivens
			Record					Record
			43-25					24-44
Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
Team Stats	2.82	2.57	23.80%	80.90%	Team Stats	2.35	3.37	17.70%	76.70%

After a hot start to the season, the Red Wings have now dropped two straight games and should be hungry to get back on the winning track tonight in Edmonton. Despite their recent stumbles, Detroit has at least gotten much healthier over the past few days as they’ve seen Darren Helm and Danny DeKeyser both get back onto the ice. The Wings dominated this Oilers team in their two meetings last season and look like the superior hockey club once again this season. Henrik Zetterberg centers a top line that has opened the season on fire, where he’s joined by two very nice value plays in Dylan Larkin and Justin Abdelkader. With the Red Wings posting the league’s second best power-play last season, Edmonton will desperately need to stay out of the penalty box as their 76.7% penalty kill last season was the second worst in the league. With that in mind, Gustav Nyquist (who joins that top line on the #1 power-play), Tomas Tatar and Teemu Pulkkinen are all very nice options as well. On the blue-line, both Mike Green and Niklas Kronwall have soaked up big minutes on the power-play early on this season and should both find plenty of scoring chances.

Don’t look now, but after a quiet few games to start his career, Connor McDavid came alive over the weekend; picking two goals and two assists in his last two games. While Jordan Eberle absence hurts the Oilers depth up front, Connor McDavid emergence gives this team who very dangerous scoring lines and will make escaping the Rexall Place much more difficult for opposing teams this season. Detroit has allowed an ugly 33.4 shots on goal against per game to start the season and clearly look to still be learning new Coach Jeff Blashill’s new defensive system. Taylor Hall and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins team up on the top line, and along with Connor McDavid, they’re about as deep as i’m looking to invest in the Edmonton forwards tonight. On defense, Justin Schultz is really the only fantasy option.

Elite Plays

DET: Henrik Zetterberg, Justin Abdelkader, Mike Green
EDM: Taylor Hall, Connor McDavid

Secondary Plays

DET: Dylan Larkin, Gustav Nyquist, Brad Richards, Niklas Kronwall
EDM: Benoit Pouliot, Anton Lander, Justin Schultz

Carolina Hurricanes at Colorado Avalanche – 10:00 PM EDT

Carolina Hurricanes					Colorado Avalanche
			Cam Ward					Semyon Varlamov
			Record					Record
			30-41					39-31
Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
Team Stats	2.23	2.67	18.80%	84.70%	Team Stats	2.55	2.72	15.00%	84.60%

The NHL scheduling gods didn’t do the Hurricanes any favors, as after an 0-3-0 start to the season, they now find themselves in the midst of a brutal seven game road trip. Extended road trips can take their toll on any team, but the effects could be magnified as they take the ice a mile above sea-level this evening. Carolina finished last season in the cellar of the Metropolitan Division, and after doing very little to improve in the offseason and entering tonight’s game with a 1-4-0 record, the outlook doesn’t look much better this time around. Eric Staal remains the hands-down most dangerous offensive weapon on this team and he, along with linemate Kris Versteeg, have both picked up four points through the first five games. However, offensive production behind those two has been few and far between, and while guys like Jordan Staal, Nathan Gerbe and Jeff Skinner have some GPP appeal potentially, they’re just not on my cash game radar. Both Eric Staal and Kris Verteeg look like fine option, but my favorite option here is Justin Faulk. The 23-year-old defenseman was held off the scoresheet for the first time this season in their last game, see’s all the power-play minutes he can handle, and exploded for 15 goals and 34 assists last season.

Oh to have been a fly on the wall of that Colorado locker room after their embarrassing 6-2 home loss to the Bruins last week. Patrick Roy almost certainly unleashed a barrage of four letter words, and his team responded with two solid efforts on their two game road trip to Southern California. This is a talented young team with playoff aspirations this season, and they simply can’t afford to fail to pick up two points in games like this. Colorado posted a solid 23-15-3 record at the Pepsi Center last season and find themselves as solid -145 Vegas favorites in tonight’s game. The offense is led by the very dangerous duo of Gabriel Landeskog and Nathan MacKinnon, who have both already picked up six points through the first five games. While they’re the elite plays from this game, Matt Duchene and Jarome Iginla offer a very capable secondary scoring line for the Avalanche with both players also seeing plenty of power-play time, making them fine options as well. On defense, Francois Beauchemin has come over the really help solidify their blue-line, but Erik Johnson remains the most fantasy friendly option.

Elite Plays

CAR: Eric Staal, Justin Faulk
COL: Nathan MacKinnon, Gabriel Landeskog, Erik Johnson

Secondary Plays

CAR: Kris Versteeg, Jeff Skinner, Ryan Murphy
COL: Matt Duchene, Jarome Iginla, Alex Tanguay, Francois Beauchemin