The Fantasy Grout, Week 5 - "Game Theory"

by Luke Louison (GiantBallofOil) Last Updated 2015-10-12 18:25:12

It’s been a pretty boring week, huh?

For those of you living under a rock, which is worse, all the dirt everywhere or the weight of the rock on top of you? Also, you might have missed that there was an “Insider Trading Scandal,” in daily fantasy sports this week. (You might have missed the news, but you haven’t missed the ads, as DraftKings now sponsors the undersides of all rocks.) When I say, “Insider Trading Scandal,” I, of course, mean that the general public became aware of something we in the industry have known for a long time, that employees of these sites also play on these sites. The “scandal” portion of the discussion stems from a DraftKings employee, Ethan Haskell, taking 2nd in FanDuel’s biggest tournament in the same week that his access to DraftKings’ ownership percentages was accidently made public.

I promised myself no more than three paragraphs on this topic, as I’m adding little-to-nothing new to the discussion, so I’ll break into bullets to bend but not break my own rules:

— It is exceedingly true that we need regulation in our industry. The example of Full Tilt poker is all we need for proof, where a business can seem to be on the up-and-up, while having all sorts of problems behind the scenes. We, as players, can’t see how the sausage is made, because it would prevent an even playing field. That means we need an objective entity ensuring that it is all pig in there, rolled on a level surface. This metaphor has gotten flat sloppy, so we’ll move on.

— The newest rule, where site employees can’t play on their site OR elsewhere, is not intended to fix an actual problem, but rather to fix a PR problem. These sites can, and likely will, lockdown information internally, to the point where there is no real risk. However, as Michael Jordan, every NFL decision over the last two years, and leaked nude photos have shown us, the image is everything. So, sorry to those employees of daily fantasy sites. There’s always season-long.

— The utopia they discuss in journalism schools across the country, where accuracy matters, is a pipe dream. Man, when the New York Times has a headline that directly says “Insider Trading” is responsible for a $350,000 win, what space in the “bad reporting” realm does that leave for the gossip rags? The anti-fantasy lawyer on Outside the Lines attributing the Nobel Peace Prize (rather than say, the Pulitzer) to a piece of reporting, felt like an appropriate assessment of its quality. When it comes to its credibility, I’m out. Peace!

— The errors in the reporting were probably more out of ignorance than malicious intent, which doesn’t bode well if any of these Don-Quixote-politicians decide they need to be our white knight, and fix the industry the way they see fit. While I fully endorse regulation, I am terrified of who might draw it up or what it might look like.

— Many outsiders I interacted with this week, seemed to take a perverse joy in a “scandal” rocking daily fantasy. 110% of the blame for this backlash is the volume of commercials. (100% for us 100 Purists!) My feelings toward the ads, at this point, are the same as Jerry Seinfeld’s regarding McDonalds stating the number of burgers sold on their signs: “Look, we get it. You’ve paid out a lot of winners, whatever the hell the number is. Just make the ad five seconds and have it say, “DraftKings. We’re doing very well.”

— Many of the people defending Ethan Haskell in this are his friends and former colleagues, of which I am neither. I can still rationally see that his only crimes were doing his job and being good at his hobby. Also, the DraftKings CEO could have easily thrown him under the bus and instead said unequivocally, “He did nothing wrong.” #IStandWithEthan

— I saw someone tweet during the week that if he had approximate ownership percentages prior to game lock Sunday, that his ROI would, at least, double. Shhh. No one tell him that they are readily and publicly available, or we’ll really be in trouble! Also, I’ve always stood by the belief that as the amount of people you have to beat to win the top prize increases, you don’t need to trend toward lower owned players, you need to trend toward the optimal lineup, ownership be damned. Let’s take a look at last week, and have a little chat about “Game Theory”.

LAST WEEK

Excluding the Thursday game, here are Week Four’s Highest Scoring / Optimal Lineup and the lineup that won the Millionaire Maker for ChipotleAddict.

HIGHEST SCORING & OPTIMAL LINEUP

Total Points: 266.42
Total Salary: $41,200.00

CHIPOTLEADDICT’S WINNING LINEUP

Total Points: 200.02
Total Salary: $50,000.00

A couple things stand out right away. You’ll see that because so many low price players went off, the highest scoring lineup comes in well below the $50,000 salary threshold. You’ll also notice that the optimal lineup CRUSHED ChipotleAddict’s winning offering by 66 points. It shouldn’t come as a surprise then, that ChipotleAddict only had two of the nine optimal players on his roster, Freeman and Hurns. Four other observations:

1) Because the optimal lineup was so far below the salary cap and because it scored so much better than the winner’s Millionaire Maker lineup, you could play nearly ANY TWO PLAYERS and still win the tournament! For example, if you replaced Allen Hurns and Tavon Austin, the two cheapest players in the optimal lineup, with two $8,200, injured, Dez Bryants, your lineup would look like this.

TWO INJURED DEZ BRYANTS

Total Points: 205.22
Total Salary: $50,000.00

You could still afford it, and it would still top ChipotleAddict, which really makes you feel dumb. Also, if ownership percentage is so important, think of running two players out there with 0% ownership. Ooh-Wee, the advantage you’d get!

2) As a rule, the further the optimal lineup is below $50,000 in price, the more it is going to outpace the top lineups actually submitted. The logic for this is pretty straight-forward, as most people are going to tend to $50,000, which will drive them further from optimal. Dan Back, in addition to being as good an ambassador as we have, digesting the daily news, has produced some daily fantasy golf content suggesting the same strategy, leaving salary on the table, to avoid overlap.

That means that if you aren’t lucky enough to have close approximations of ownership levels before Sunday lineup lock (you are that lucky, every week, always), you can just leave some salary on the table and achieve the same benefit.

3) Is negative correlation is the new positive correlation? This week, Doug Martin and Vincent Jackson, a Tampa Bay running back and wide receiver, showed up in the Optimal Lineup, despite the assumed negative correlation. In the week prior, it was Devonta Freeman and Julio Jones for the Falcons in the Highest Scoring Lineup and Chris Johnson with Larry Fitzgerald (and the Cards DST) in the Optimal Lineup. In week two, it was Ben Roethlisberger, DeAngelo Williams, and Antonio Brown. Is there something to this?

The general line of thinking assumes there are a finite amount of touchdowns, so it is very unlikely that two different players on the same team will amass enough of them to make an optimal score. One’s scoring will trade-off with the other’s. There is data to back this up, although I can’t help but wonder how recent it is.

One possible explanation for this recent outburst of negative correlation success is point-per-reception, PPR, scoring, coupled with ever-increasing pass offense. The quartet of wide receivers in the Optimal Lineup had 11, 10, 6, and 11 receptions, respectively. Even the two running backs caught five balls apiece. Unlike touchdowns, which end a drive (and therefore end production for the negatively correlated teammate), receptions extend drives. While a one week sample certainly can’t prove anything, it is entirely possible that starting two position players in a tournament lineup might not be as bad a play as we all have assumed for so long.

4) Circling back to the premise here, that thanks to “Game Theory,” having ownership numbers in advance is such a huge advantage, let’s just take a look at our weekly winner. Of his nine players, only two were under 9.8% owned, his QB-WR stack of Blake Bortles (1.01%) and Allen Hurns (2.59%). Other than that, every player was near or over 10%. He started two of the five most owned running backs, his three non-Hurns wide receivers were all in the top ten in ownership, his tight end was the second most owned by a mere percent, and he chose the third most owned defense. Frankly, it’s a good thing no one leaked to him the ownership percentages, or he would have missed out!

QUARTERBACK

Last week, with two teams on bye, 8 of 30 quarterbacks were excluded based on salaries, and it was stated that if QB pricing didn’t tighten its belt, we’d have to tighten ours. This week, with only 28 teams at our disposal, either 8 or 9 of 28 (pending Luck’s health) are too pricey. In a column obsessed with nicknames, no one wants to be known as the Boy Who Cried Wolf. Let it be known! The new Fantasy Grout Price Threshold is $6,000 or below.

GANG GROUT

TYROD TAYLOR, $5,800 AT TEN – At this point, my love for The Rod is best expressed via poem:

D Yards Per Grab High
With Watkins, Harvin, Woods, Clay
The Rod, Boom or Rush

If The Rod and I had a tragic mix-up that ended with both us dead in the same casket, having each taken our own life in an attempt to be together, it wouldn’t be ideal, per se, but I’d be okay with it. Not unlike a mix-up where you see Tennessee’s defense has been stoutish, numbers-wise, against fantasy quarterbacks and confuse them being good with them facing Jameis Winston in his first NFL start, Johnny Manziel only throwing 15 times, and Andrew Luck impersonating the villain from The Fugitive. Others might make that mix-up, which could make The Rod low-owned, and in turn, a play even the New York Times could approve.

LEFT IN THE BUCKET

JAY CUTLER, $5,300 AT KC – The DGAF It Takes To Roll With Cutler > The DGAF Perpetually On His Face.

MARCUS MARIOTA, $6,000 VS BUF – Along with The Rod and Andy Dalton, he is one of a triplet of quarterbacks with a top-tier DraftKings average and a mid-tier price. That market inefficiency means that if you don’t want to take my advice, take Billy Beane’s.

RUNNING BACK

GANG GROUT

CHRIS THOMPSON, $3,300 AT ATL – There are three doors.

Behind Door #1: 7 Receptions, 76 Yards
Behind Door #2: 8 Receptions, 76 Yards
Behind Door #3: 10 Receptions, 100 Yards

Get Real! Game shows where every option is a winner don’t exist. These situations only exist when you are the “Passing Downs” back against Atlanta. Darren Sproles, Shane Vereen, and Lance Dunbar feasted on their mediocre linebackers, and Houston last week, who doesn’t really deploy a “Passing Downs” back, had Foster and Polk combined for 6 for 48. Now Thompson wins the matchup grand prize, playing catchup, on the road, on the fast track.

This isn’t just an interesting “Tournament Play,” either. Thompson is a legit part of Washington’s offense.

Week 3 Offensive Snap Percentages: Thompson – 50% / Jones – 34% / Morris – 16%
Week 4 Offensive Snap Percentages: Morris – 41% / Thompson – 39% / Jones – 18%

Week 3 Activity:
Jones – 11-for-38 (3.5)
Thompson – 2-for-29 (14.5) & 8-for-57 + TD on 11 Targets
Morris – 6-for-19 (3.2)

Week 4 Activity:
Morris – 17-for-62 (3.6) & 2-for-3 on 3 Targets
Thompson – 6-for-53 (8.8) & 2-for-24 on 3 Targets
Jones – 7-for-11 (1.6)

Floor. Ceiling. Thompson is basically a house.

DIGRESSION OF THE WEEK

It’s weird how history remembers music. If you manage to have more than one hit, it mitigates the chances we will remember any one of your songs. Would we still Walk 500 Miles if The Proclaimers had a second hit complaining how their feet hurt? If Chumbawamba stayed down in their second hit, would we care as much that they got up again in their first? I don’t think anyone would care much about Funkytown if, in the follow up hit, Lipps Inc let us know the board was gridlocked on getting Funky Funding for a Funky Park put in downtown. This is all to say that Trick Daddy has made a few songs. He’s had some hits. We know him. If that ends up being the reason, that history doesn’t remember The Slip-and-Slide All-Stars and him telling us how they Take It To The House, it’ll be a shame. That song has got more punch than a bowl of juice.

BOOBIE DIXON, $3,000 AT TEN – CAVEAT – If Karlos Williams Sits – CAVEAT

This offense, with The Rod constantly keeping linebackers attention, is made for running backs. For a minimum salary, against a defense that allowed Doug Martin nearly 5 YPC, Isaiah Crowell nearly 5 YPC, and Frank Gore over 6 YPC, Hell, I’d recommend Boobie Miles, even after this happened.

LEFT IN THE BUCKET

T.J. YELDON, $4,400 AT TB – 70 carries over four weeks, with at least two receptions in every game. With that kind of volume, I know why his last name isn’t “Whisperdon”.

ALFRED MORRIS, $4,000 AT ATL – The Falcons have given up 7 TDs and over 4 YPC on the ground, too.

TODD GURLEY, $4,300 AT GB – The talent is so discounted that it’s okay the situation sucks.

DOUG MARTIN, $4,700 VS JAC – “Pop Quiz: Who is 10th in the NFL in carries? Doug Martin you say? Nope. It’s Chris Ivory, but Martin is tied with Devonta Freeman, Justin Forsett, and Alfred Morris for 6th”

WIDE RECEIVER

GANG GROUT

LEONARD HANKERSON, $4,000 VS WAS – You know the guy who finds emails and hotel receipts and still says “I think my wife might be having an affair.” That’s what DraftKings pricing seems to be doing with Hankerson:

“Maybe he’s the #2 wide receiver in Atlanta?”
“DraftKings, Roddy White has 6 receptions THIS YEAR and only 8 yards receiving since Week 1.”
“Yeah, but, but, Roddy White is still on the field a lot.”
“Okay, suit yourself. Price Hankerson at $4K if that’s what makes you sleep at night.”

Hankerson is averaging four receptions for 60 yards and a half a touchdown per game, or 3x his price. On average. Then, you throw in the fact that you can’t run against Washington, that they have allowed the 5th most receiving TDs to WRs on the year, and Revenge Game #NarrativeStreet and one might surmise Hankerson catches a whole touchdown this week!

KAMAR AIKEN, $3,800 VS CLE – With some raffles and the like, “you must be present to win.” Aiken is going to win the Targets-From-Joe-Flacco contest this week, based on that caveat alone. No Smith. No Perriman. No Campanaro. Given his track-record this year, the only Joe Haden we should expect to show up is the bad one. Might as well be a free-roll.

WILLIE SNEAD, $3,000 AT PHI – Like Hankerson and when guys sit down in the bathroom, he’s the #2. Unlike the situation in Atlanta though, Marques is still averaging just under four short grabs a game. Still, Willie is the guy you want. No, scratch that. Willie is the guy you Snead.

LEFT IN THE BUCKET

ALLEN HURNS, $4,500 AT TB – There are only 16 guys in the Millionaire Maker slate who are scoring more DraftKings Fantasy Points Per Game than Allen Hurns. Nothing else fancy to say here. That just blew me out of the water.

EDDIE ROYAL, $3,700 AT KC – McDonalds doesn’t have great food, but you can count on it. Same every time. That’s how I feel about the Kansas City pass defense. You can count on it being subpar.

COLE BEASLEY, $3,100 VS NE – How do you think Cole feels about having Jim Halpert as a brother-in-law?

TIGHT END

GANG GROUT

OWEN DANIELS, $2,700 AT OAK – How about a little game of Over/Under, shall we?

110 – # of DK FPT scored by #1 TEs against Oakland over the first four weeks this year.

Yes, I know I suck at this. I agree, 27.5 points per game was way too high of a number to set. There really is no one who would go “Over”. Of course, with “in their right mind” as a caveat. Here’s the thing, though. It is Over. 111. I think this SmizzLife Flow Chart does the heavy lifting for you.

LEFT IN THE BUCKET

Didn’t you read the flowchart?