Advanced Stats – Pitching: Friday, July 14th
Now that the All-Star break is behind us, we enter the “Hugging Season” portion of the MLB season. Also known as the trade deadline, the next few weeks will feature several players hugging their teammates good-bye as they move from pretenders to contenders. Unfortunately for DFS players, this occasionally means later lineup releases and more scratches.
The original plan had been to have a lengthy article kicking off this second part of the season written and posted by Thursday afternoon, but here we are moving into Thursday evening and three teams (blame the Yankees, Royals and Angels) still have yet to name a starter for Friday (according to MLB.com) as of late Thursday night. Four days apparently isn’t long enough to make that delicate decision.
Update: It is now Friday morning and all three teams still have a TBD on MLB.com. Educated guesses were made using Twitter searches, but nothing is still yet confirmed.
In the meantime, there is some housekeeping and updating to get to. League averages for starting pitchers have been updated for the current season. At this point, we shouldn’t expect much movement with larger sample sizes, but there are still a few surprises.
BABIP continues to rise (another .004 points over the last month) and the current .297 mark allowed by starting pitchers is now equivalent to the last several years. A .07 drop in strand rate now equals last season’s 72.2% mark. Home Runs continue to rise another 0.3 points. The current 14.4 HR/FB allowed by starting pitchers is another all-time high, above last season’s 13.3 HR/FB, which was also the first time we’d ever seen anything above an 11.8 HR/FB.
Strikeouts and Swinging Strikes did not really change, while batted ball changes have been minimal as well, although ground balls are down 0.2 points with grounders and line drives each up that amount.
ERA, SIERA, xFIP and FIP are all at their highest in a decade when all were around or above 4.5 runs per game. Power continues to rise and dominate this game, whether it’s on the hitting or pitching side.
Finally, there was a small update in the Statcast section. Considering that we were employing both Barrels/BBE and Barrels/PA, it seemed a bit repetitive with 95+ mph EV being a more interesting replacement for the latter, considering it was being mentioned more in the notes. Adding team performances against ground ball and fly ball predominant pitchers appeared to be a bit large in scale than anticipated though. So while those numbers will still be mentioned, they will not be included on a wider scale this season unfortunately.
As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, ownership projections and the weather forecast as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. All of these things are available right here on the site.
Editor’s Note: Michael Pineda has been scratched from his start today. Jordan Montgomery will start instead.
NOTE: Aaron Sanchez is starting for Toronto, with Justin Verlander going for Detroit this evening.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB% L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Sanchez | TOR | -2.8 | 4.08 | 6.06 | 54.4% | 0.98 | 3.77 | 9.16 | DET | 114 | 95 | 74 |
| Brandon McCarthy | LOS | 3.8 | 4.61 | 5.13 | 40.9% | 0.94 | 4.32 | 6.97 | MIA | 90 | 95 | 129 |
| Carlos Carrasco | CLE | 0 | 3.24 | 6.06 | 48.8% | 0.93 | 3.19 | 2.91 | OAK | 109 | 102 | 87 |
| Charlie Morton | HOU | -5.8 | 3.84 | 5.45 | 53.7% | 0.94 | 3.54 | 5.51 | MIN | 89 | 99 | 103 |
| Clayton Richard | SDG | -5.8 | 4.15 | 6. | 60.4% | 0.91 | 3.91 | 5.93 | SFO | 84 | 83 | 69 |
| Dan Straily | MIA | 4.1 | 4.52 | 5.82 | 33.5% | 0.94 | 4.94 | 4.97 | LOS | 98 | 107 | 106 |
| Drew Pomeranz | BOS | 7 | 3.7 | 5.44 | 44.3% | 1.13 | 3.41 | 4.3 | NYY | 104 | 90 | 75 |
| Gerrit Cole | PIT | -3.2 | 3.97 | 5.95 | 45.1% | 0.97 | 4.05 | 3.39 | STL | 90 | 98 | 129 |
| Gio Gonzalez | WAS | 0.1 | 4.06 | 5.72 | 47.4% | 1.02 | 4.25 | 3.93 | CIN | 104 | 99 | 106 |
| Jacob deGrom | NYM | -1.4 | 3.42 | 6.22 | 46.1% | 0.91 | 3.38 | 2.55 | COL | 80 | 77 | 103 |
| Jacob Faria | TAM | -0.7 | 3.84 | 6.35 | 40.2% | 0.91 | 3.02 | 5.1 | ANA | 98 | 91 | 80 |
| James Paxton | SEA | 6.6 | 3.7 | 5.7 | 46.3% | 0.98 | 3.4 | 3.97 | CHW | 97 | 114 | 96 |
| James Shields | CHW | 0.2 | 4.9 | 5.62 | 40.7% | 0.98 | 5.21 | 6.15 | SEA | 96 | 106 | 92 |
| Jason Hammel | KAN | 5.8 | 4.35 | 5.38 | 39.8% | 1.06 | 4.47 | 4.45 | TEX | 83 | 98 | 119 |
| Johnny Cueto | SFO | -0.9 | 4.05 | 6.5 | 45.1% | 0.91 | 3.59 | 7.62 | SDG | 86 | 83 | 59 |
| Jon Gray | COL | -4.2 | 3.79 | 5.4 | 44.4% | 0.91 | 3.98 | 3.17 | NYM | 91 | 101 | 72 |
| Jordan Montgomery | NYY | 1.1 | 4.19 | 5.69 | 41.6% | 1.13 | 4.59 | 3.68 | BOS | 95 | 107 | 82 |
| Jose Berrios | MIN | 1.8 | 4.62 | 5.17 | 40.7% | 0.94 | 5.27 | 4.22 | HOU | 121 | 130 | 189 |
| Justin Verlander | DET | 2.8 | 3.82 | 6.51 | 33.7% | 0.98 | 4.14 | 5.48 | TOR | 94 | 92 | 107 |
| Kevin Gausman | BAL | -4.6 | 4.08 | 5.75 | 43.4% | 1.02 | 4.05 | 3.23 | CHC | 88 | 89 | 107 |
| Martin Perez | TEX | 3.5 | 4.88 | 5.8 | 52.6% | 1.06 | 4.83 | 6.21 | KAN | 86 | 85 | 69 |
| Mike Leake | STL | -3.5 | 4.05 | 6.19 | 53.7% | 0.97 | 3.85 | 4.67 | PIT | 91 | 89 | 87 |
| Mike Montgomery | CHC | 4.2 | 4.09 | 4.78 | 58.4% | 1.02 | 4 | 4.58 | BAL | 92 | 87 | 91 |
| Nick Pivetta | PHI | 4.1 | 4.49 | 5.36 | 36.3% | 1.02 | 5.81 | 5.12 | MIL | 95 | 98 | 113 |
| R.A. Dickey | ATL | -2.5 | 4.82 | 6.12 | 0.434 | 1 | 4.82 | 4.35 | ARI | 79 | 104 | 50 |
| Ricky Nolasco | ANA | 1.2 | 4.42 | 5.91 | 0.423 | 0.91 | 4.4 | 4.28 | TAM | 99 | 114 | 94 |
| Sonny Gray | OAK | -12.2 | 4.16 | 5.9 | 0.532 | 0.93 | 3.83 | 3.98 | CLE | 105 | 106 | 136 |
| Taijuan Walker | ARI | -5.3 | 4.12 | 5.65 | 0.437 | 1 | 4.52 | 5.63 | ATL | 89 | 89 | 100 |
| Tim Adleman | CIN | 7.4 | 4.7 | 5.33 | 0.371 | 1.02 | 4.99 | 4.12 | WAS | 101 | 109 | 93 |
| Zach Davies | MIL | -1.3 | 4.36 | 5.66 | 0.483 | 1.02 | 3.99 | 4.02 | PHI | 72 | 82 | 86 |
Carlos Carrasco has two double digit strikeout games this season, both occurring over the last month. He’s struck out at least seven in five straight, giving him both the highest strikeout (31.7%) and swinging strike rate (14.6%) over the last month. He lasted just 3.1 innings in a start in Texas in which he allowed three HRs (still striking out seven), but has allowed a total of four runs over his other four starts. He gets a nice park upgrade in Oakland tonight and although the A’s have been no push-over, they strike out a quarter of the time both at home and against RHP.
Charlie Morton returned from a month plus DL stint last week and one of the most important stats from his initial outing was 95 pitches. While his velocity was down around one mph that’s still one mph above his career average. While it’s difficult to forecast that he’ll continue to miss bats at an above average rate since it’s not something he’s had a long track record of doing (he struck out just three in his return), it may be worth speculating that he might in a decent spot hosting a marginal Minnesota offense that strikes out a bit more than average (22.3% vs RHP) and has the second worst sOPS+ in baseball against ground ball pitchers (81).
Drew Pomeranz walked five in his last start, while striking out just six Rays may be seen as a bit of a disappointment. In fact, his strikeout rate over the last month is just average and Fenway is the most positive run environment in play tonight, but the matchup could be more favorable than anticipated. The Yankees could be getting some bats back tonight, that may dampen this outlook, but they haven’t been particularly strong against LHP all season. They do have patience (11.2 BB%), but strike out 23.2% of the time. For the season, Pomeranz has a 17.2 K-BB% that’s identical to last season and top 20 in baseball.
Jacob deGrom allowed a career high four HRs in his last outing, but those were the only runs he allowed as he was still able to complete at least seven innings for fifth straight start. Over this span, the biggest improvement, besides the increased workload, has been a decrease in walk rate. Never a problem previously, his walk rate is a league average 8.3% this season, but just 5.6% over this current span, allowing him to maintain a 19.4 K-BB% despite the decrease in strikeouts. He’s still missing enough bats and has one of the top matchups on the slate against the worst offense in baseball against RHP (15.0 K-BB%) in one of the most pitcher friendly parks.
Jacob Faria threw at least six innings of one run ball for the four time in six starts last time out, but the results were marred by four walks with just two strikeouts, by far his worst peripherals of any start, both the first time he’s walked more than two and/or struck out fewer than five, both of those previous worsts occurring his major league debut. His 2.11 ERA may have a lot of regression in it, but he’s been a quality arm for the Rays so far, posting an 18.4 K-BB% with a 5.8 Hard-Soft%. The Angels may be getting Mike Trout back tonight, but it’s still a favorable run prevention spot in a strongly negative run environment.
James Paxton has struck out at least eight in three of his last four starts with a 12+ SwStr% in all four. While his 86.4 mph aEV is just average, he’s excelled at staying away from barrels. His 2.3% of BBEs is second lowest on today’s board. A great park and a strong outfield defense only help his cause. Not only is he not at home tonight, but the White Sox are one of the top offenses in the league against LHP despite merely average peripherals. The other pertinent factor is that he has just a career .281 wOBA against RHBs with a 15.5 K-BB%.
Jon Gray struck out 10 in his return from the DL in Arizona, but just five Reds at home in his last start. His strikeout rate has been the same home or away, just above a quarter of batters faced since last season, but it’s a major park upgrade in New York tonight. His 82.9 mph aEV is lowest on the board. With over 100 pitches in each of his two starts, there are no workload concerns here.
NOTE Michael Pineda has been diagnosed with a torn UCL, information which came to light after this article was originally posted. MLB.com is now listing Jordan Montgomery. Unfortunate also because the stats for the Red Sox are against RHP.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.297 BABIP – 72.2 LOB% – 14.4 HR/FB)
Mike Leake (.272 – 74.9% – 15.0) is creeping closer to his estimators. In fact, none of his numbers are really that far out of line, though he does have seven unearned runs over his last six starts (five in his most recent). While his strikeouts have cratered over the last month, his SwStr rate remains above 8%, a career high. He transitions to a power suppressing park against a below average offense tonight (9.5 HR/FB at home), but the Pirates may not help his failing strikeout rate much (18.7% vs RHP).
Mike Montgomery (.292 – 73.1% – 8.9) worked three innings out of the bullpen his last time out, lasting just 2.1 innings in a start three days before. He may be the odd man out when all are healthy after yesterday’s trade. Walks remain an issue (7.8 K-BB%), so perhaps he’s better suited to bullpen work, missing bats at just under a league average rate. Baltimore is not an unfavorable spot for a LHP right now (18.1 K-BB%).
Gio Gonzalez (.259 – 85% – 13.0) is missing bats at an impressive rate over the last month, while his walk rate is just 7.8% since the start of June (20.1 K-BB%). However, a .229 BABIP and 81.2% strand rate over that span over-states his effectiveness with a cost of $9K in a spot that’s not all that enviable in Cincinnati against a team with some pop (16 HR/FB at home and vs LHP).
Dan Straily (.243 – 77.9% – 10.8) is pretty close to being outside of an acceptable range for all three rates in parenthesis. He does have a career .252 BABIP and an excellent profile that includes lots of popups and few line drives. Strikeouts have been up and down though and lately they’re down (15.1% over his last three starts), while he faces a difficult foe in the Dodgers (second best 117 sOPS+ vs fly ball pitchers).
Taijuan Walker (.295 – 71.3% – 8.9) has been inconsistent and just average overall in his return from the DL over the last month. His velocity has dipped slightly over his last few starts as well. Sometimes he’s had control issues and he sandwiched a zero in between two performances with eight strikeouts a few weeks back. We don’t know what we’re going to get, which is unfortunate because I thought he might break out this year, and Atlanta does not strike out a ton.
Brandon McCarthy (.272 – 72.3% – 5.2) has been the top contact manager on the slate (1.7% Barrels/BBE, 19.8% 95+ mph EV), but I still can’t be comfortable with a HR rate only 36% of the league average, while his strikeout rate has completely tanked. He has more than two in just one of his last four starts and no more than four in any of his last five.
James Shields (.238 – 83.3% – 17.5) is the guy to attack tonight.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
R.A. Dickey has allowed one run or less in five of his last six starts (getting destroyed on three HRs in the other one). He’s pitched exactly seven innings in four of those starts and most importantly, is striking out batters at above a league average rate (at least six in five of six also). The NL East really agrees with him. To be perfectly honest, I really don’t know what to do with him on a strong board tonight. Arizona is helping matters, as they’re terrible on the road, but good vs RHP. The park has played power friendly as well.
Sonny Gray throws some kind of difficult to classify pitch that’s been frequently, but not always effect, whatever it is, slider or not. Interestingly, Fangraphs says he did not throw a changeup in his last start (14.7% on the year) and went 82.7% fastballs (54.2% season). It’s two straight starts with a single digit SwStr% now after four straight starts of at least 12%. Perhaps it depends on whatever he feels on a certain day. While he pitches in a favorable park, Cleveland is not a favorable opponent, nor is his defense an asset, especially 38.8% of batted balls above a 95 mph EV. We’re going to need the strikeouts and he has no more than five in three of his last four starts.
Gerrit Cole can probably still be used on occasion and in the right situation, but doesn’t appear to be anything special anymore and St Louis doesn’t appear to be a particularly enticing situation. His 3.45 ERA over the last month is predicated on an 80.3 LOB%.
Kevin Gausman came out of two consecutive scoreless starts with a six run effort (five earned) in just four innings last time out (42.9 Hard%), but the strikeout spike continues as he garnered another seven and now has at least that many in four of his last five starts. His Statcast contact rates almost exactly match Verlander above him today (note: that’s not good), but the increase in swings and misses since significantly increasing his Splitter usage by about 10 percentage points in mid-June makes him more interesting in a decent matchup against the Cubs, maybe more so in a better one.
Justin Verlander is just a guy with a 10.1 K-BB% this year with too much hard contact in the air. He is in a decent spot hosting an under-performing Toronto offense that also has just an 88 sOPS+ (fifth worse) against fly ball pitchers, though most of their now healthy regular are above that point.
Zach Davies is in a really strong spot against the Phillies (23.9 K% on the road and vs RHP), but there’s just no strikeout ability there this year.
Johnny Cueto has collapsed over the last month and especially last three starts (13 BB – 8 K – 84 BF). We still have to consider the larger body of work somewhat, but a 0.6 K-BB% over his last six starts has to be concerning. Unfortunate, especially because he has one of the top matchups on the board in San Diego (26.1 K% vs RHP).
Clayton Richard may have one of the top matchups on the slate, hosting the Giants (82 sOPS+ vs GB pitchers), but they’re not a team that strikes out a lot (18.8% vs LHP) and his own strikeout rate has dropped to an unusable level.
Jason Hammel has greatly increased his SwStr% over the last month and has been above 11% in five straight starts, though the strikeouts have only increased slightly as he’s walked eight of his last 80 batters. Though his Statcast contact rates are below average, he can survive some harder contact in that park and the Rangers have been pretty terrible on the road (27.4 K%). The high strikeout matchup (24% vs RHP) pushes him further up the board than you’d expect today, but not far enough on a strong board.
Ricky Nolasco has a double digit SwStr% and the Rays strike out a quarter of the time. They also homer on around 18% of fly balls and he leads the majors with 25 HRs allowed.
Nick Pivetta is the only pitcher on today’s board whose SwStr% is unable to support his K% for the season and we’re still only talking about 11 starts. He’s allowed a lot of hard contact (9.3% Barrels/BBE) in the air (36.3 GB%), not ideal in Milwaukee against an offense with a 115 sOPS+ against fly ball pitchers (fifth best) and 20 HR/FB at home and vs RHP.
Jose Berrios has, by far, the worst matchup on the board in Houston. If fact, it’s really the only one much worse than average considering park effects as most environments lean either neutral or pitcher friendly tonight. The Houston numbers just stand out so far above every other offense today.
Tim Adleman doesn’t always allow contact (11.1 SwStr%), but when he does it generally leaves the park (19 HRs). Although his Statcast contact authority does not condemn him, he has an 18.5 HR/FB at home since last season and faces an efficient offense tonight.
Martin Perez has increased his SwStr% to league average with no budge in his K% however. It may just be a small sample fluke though, as he’s been below 6% in each of his last two starts.
K/BB Chart
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Sanchez | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 19.6% | 8.2% | Road | 20.4% | 7.5% | L14 Days | 0.0% | 25.0% |
| Brandon McCarthy | Dodgers | L2 Years | 21.0% | 9.9% | Road | 19.7% | 9.6% | L14 Days | 4.2% | 8.3% |
| Carlos Carrasco | Indians | L2 Years | 27.5% | 6.2% | Road | 27.7% | 5.1% | L14 Days | 34.3% | 6.9% |
| Charlie Morton | Astros | L2 Years | 22.3% | 8.4% | Home | 24.9% | 9.3% | L14 Days | 14.3% | 9.5% |
| Clayton Richard | Padres | L2 Years | 14.6% | 7.3% | Home | 16.8% | 7.7% | L14 Days | 10.2% | 10.2% |
| Dan Straily | Marlins | L2 Years | 21.3% | 8.5% | Home | 21.6% | 9.6% | L14 Days | 15.1% | 2.7% |
| Drew Pomeranz | Red Sox | L2 Years | 26.6% | 8.6% | Home | 28.0% | 8.3% | L14 Days | 22.9% | 10.0% |
| Gerrit Cole | Pirates | L2 Years | 20.8% | 6.0% | Home | 19.3% | 6.7% | L14 Days | 27.8% | 5.6% |
| Gio Gonzalez | Nationals | L2 Years | 23.1% | 8.9% | Road | 20.3% | 8.0% | L14 Days | 29.5% | 11.5% |
| Jacob deGrom | Mets | L2 Years | 26.7% | 6.6% | Home | 29.7% | 9.1% | L14 Days | 32.7% | 1.9% |
| Jacob Faria | Rays | L2 Years | 24.3% | 5.9% | Road | 29.9% | 2.6% | L14 Days | 16.3% | 8.2% |
| James Paxton | Mariners | L2 Years | 24.6% | 6.8% | Road | 23.5% | 5.6% | L14 Days | 28.0% | 10.7% |
| James Shields | White Sox | L2 Years | 18.5% | 10.6% | Home | 18.4% | 10.1% | L14 Days | 12.2% | 10.2% |
| Jason Hammel | Royals | L2 Years | 20.3% | 7.5% | Home | 20.1% | 7.9% | L14 Days | 21.4% | 8.9% |
| Johnny Cueto | Giants | L2 Years | 20.2% | 6.0% | Road | 23.4% | 6.5% | L14 Days | 8.8% | 17.5% |
| Jon Gray | Rockies | L2 Years | 24.8% | 8.2% | Road | 25.8% | 10.9% | L14 Days | 28.3% | 3.8% |
| Jordan Montgomery | Yankees | L2 Years | 22.8% | 7.4% | Road | 20.0% | 8.2% | L14 Days | 23.5% | 2.9% |
| Jose Berrios | Twins | L2 Years | 20.6% | 9.4% | Road | 19.7% | 10.5% | L14 Days | 19.8% | 4.9% |
| Justin Verlander | Tigers | L2 Years | 25.2% | 7.2% | Home | 26.5% | 7.0% | L14 Days | 14.6% | 9.8% |
| Kevin Gausman | Orioles | L2 Years | 21.5% | 7.1% | Home | 21.7% | 7.3% | L14 Days | 29.9% | 6.0% |
| Martin Perez | Rangers | L2 Years | 13.5% | 8.6% | Road | 12.5% | 9.5% | L14 Days | 10.7% | 14.3% |
| Mike Leake | Cardinals | L2 Years | 16.3% | 4.8% | Road | 17.1% | 5.0% | L14 Days | 12.2% | 8.2% |
| Mike Montgomery | Cubs | L2 Years | 20.1% | 10.6% | Road | 20.3% | 10.2% | L14 Days | 22.0% | 11.9% |
| Nick Pivetta | Phillies | L2 Years | 24.5% | 11.1% | Road | 18.4% | 16.5% | L14 Days | 22.9% | 12.9% |
| R.A. Dickey | Braves | L2 Years | 16.0% | 7.7% | Home | 16.7% | 8.2% | L14 Days | 21.6% | 7.8% |
| Ricky Nolasco | Angels | L2 Years | 18.5% | 6.0% | Home | 18.0% | 5.0% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 5.7% |
| Sonny Gray | Athletics | L2 Years | 19.3% | 8.0% | Home | 20.3% | 7.7% | L14 Days | 18.8% | 6.3% |
| Taijuan Walker | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 20.8% | 6.7% | Road | 20.1% | 7.8% | L14 Days | 14.1% | 10.6% |
| Tim Adleman | Reds | L2 Years | 19.3% | 8.2% | Home | 21.6% | 9.2% | L14 Days | 23.9% | 7.5% |
| Zach Davies | Brewers | L2 Years | 17.8% | 6.7% | Home | 19.9% | 5.9% | L14 Days | 16.3% | 4.1% |
K/BB Chart – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tigers | Home | 19.5% | 8.8% | RH | 22.5% | 9.5% | L7Days | 18.2% | 7.9% |
| Marlins | Home | 20.1% | 7.9% | RH | 20.3% | 6.9% | L7Days | 18.3% | 7.0% |
| Athletics | Home | 25.0% | 9.4% | RH | 25.4% | 9.4% | L7Days | 25.6% | 11.4% |
| Twins | Road | 21.9% | 8.8% | RH | 22.3% | 9.5% | L7Days | 20.9% | 7.5% |
| Giants | Road | 19.1% | 8.2% | LH | 18.8% | 7.7% | L7Days | 19.6% | 6.7% |
| Dodgers | Road | 22.6% | 10.7% | RH | 23.2% | 10.8% | L7Days | 29.4% | 11.7% |
| Yankees | Road | 21.9% | 9.7% | LH | 23.2% | 11.2% | L7Days | 27.7% | 12.3% |
| Cardinals | Road | 21.2% | 8.7% | RH | 21.3% | 8.7% | L7Days | 19.8% | 8.6% |
| Reds | Home | 21.8% | 8.9% | LH | 20.9% | 7.0% | L7Days | 19.8% | 8.6% |
| Rockies | Road | 23.7% | 7.7% | RH | 22.6% | 7.6% | L7Days | 26.6% | 7.3% |
| Angels | Home | 18.5% | 7.6% | RH | 20.1% | 8.3% | L7Days | 19.1% | 7.2% |
| White Sox | Home | 21.9% | 8.0% | LH | 20.6% | 7.6% | L7Days | 20.5% | 8.0% |
| Mariners | Road | 20.6% | 7.5% | RH | 21.0% | 8.0% | L7Days | 16.6% | 6.1% |
| Rangers | Road | 27.4% | 8.2% | RH | 24.0% | 9.0% | L7Days | 21.6% | 10.8% |
| Padres | Home | 24.9% | 8.7% | RH | 26.1% | 7.4% | L7Days | 31.6% | 3.3% |
| Mets | Home | 19.5% | 9.0% | RH | 19.1% | 9.2% | L7Days | 21.8% | 6.1% |
| Red Sox | Home | 17.1% | 9.5% | LH | 16.1% | 10.1% | L7Days | 18.4% | 9.9% |
| Astros | Home | 16.8% | 7.6% | RH | 17.4% | 8.1% | L7Days | 15.5% | 9.5% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 21.0% | 8.8% | RH | 20.7% | 8.1% | L7Days | 21.5% | 10.2% |
| Cubs | Road | 23.2% | 9.7% | RH | 22.5% | 9.0% | L7Days | 18.6% | 10.6% |
| Royals | Home | 19.2% | 6.6% | LH | 19.8% | 6.6% | L7Days | 24.1% | 5.7% |
| Pirates | Home | 18.7% | 9.4% | RH | 18.7% | 8.4% | L7Days | 18.2% | 8.8% |
| Orioles | Home | 22.4% | 7.0% | LH | 25.2% | 7.1% | L7Days | 22.3% | 4.5% |
| Brewers | Home | 26.2% | 8.4% | RH | 24.9% | 8.8% | L7Days | 25.8% | 9.6% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 24.6% | 8.0% | RH | 22.5% | 9.1% | L7Days | 29.9% | 8.5% |
| Rays | Road | 25.8% | 8.9% | RH | 24.6% | 8.9% | L7Days | 25.1% | 7.6% |
| Indians | Road | 18.2% | 9.7% | RH | 19.5% | 9.2% | L7Days | 18.2% | 9.7% |
| Braves | Home | 19.4% | 7.4% | RH | 19.5% | 7.2% | L7Days | 20.4% | 8.8% |
| Nationals | Road | 20.0% | 8.9% | RH | 19.2% | 9.4% | L7Days | 19.1% | 11.0% |
| Phillies | Road | 23.9% | 7.2% | RH | 23.9% | 7.5% | L7Days | 24.7% | 6.3% |
Batted Ball Chart
Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Sanchez | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 28.3% | 12.0% | 7.2% | 2017 | 28.7% | 20.0% | 1.1% | Road | 28.1% | 8.4% | 4.4% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 100.0% | -41.6% |
| Brandon McCarthy | Dodgers | L2 Years | 29.3% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 2017 | 26.3% | 5.2% | 2.6% | Road | 23.0% | 5.0% | -3.2% | L14 Days | 38.1% | 0.0% | 19.0% |
| Carlos Carrasco | Indians | L2 Years | 31.2% | 15.5% | 14.0% | 2017 | 30.3% | 13.8% | 12.3% | Road | 30.2% | 9.0% | 10.1% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 20.0% | 16.6% |
| Charlie Morton | Astros | L2 Years | 32.6% | 15.6% | 15.2% | 2017 | 35.3% | 17.8% | 18.5% | Home | 33.6% | 18.2% | 18.2% | L14 Days | 12.5% | 14.3% | -12.5% |
| Clayton Richard | Padres | L2 Years | 28.7% | 16.0% | 8.9% | 2017 | 32.2% | 18.9% | 14.4% | Home | 31.7% | 10.7% | 13.4% | L14 Days | 31.6% | 25.0% | 15.8% |
| Dan Straily | Marlins | L2 Years | 32.3% | 11.4% | 15.0% | 2017 | 33.0% | 10.8% | 12.1% | Home | 34.2% | 8.7% | 18.5% | L14 Days | 28.3% | 12.5% | 8.3% |
| Drew Pomeranz | Red Sox | L2 Years | 31.7% | 13.4% | 11.4% | 2017 | 33.1% | 13.3% | 10.3% | Home | 33.5% | 17.4% | 15.8% | L14 Days | 36.2% | 0.0% | 21.3% |
| Gerrit Cole | Pirates | L2 Years | 32.2% | 10.3% | 11.1% | 2017 | 33.8% | 17.9% | 11.0% | Home | 31.8% | 10.8% | 9.4% | L14 Days | 36.1% | 16.7% | 8.3% |
| Gio Gonzalez | Nationals | L2 Years | 32.1% | 10.9% | 12.3% | 2017 | 32.6% | 13.0% | 10.8% | Road | 32.6% | 12.1% | 12.7% | L14 Days | 37.8% | 12.5% | 15.6% |
| Jacob deGrom | Mets | L2 Years | 31.5% | 14.5% | 11.6% | 2017 | 35.6% | 19.6% | 14.8% | Home | 30.9% | 11.7% | 8.4% | L14 Days | 41.2% | 36.4% | 23.5% |
| Jacob Faria | Rays | L2 Years | 29.1% | 7.7% | 5.8% | 2017 | 29.1% | 7.7% | 5.8% | Road | 28.9% | 4.8% | 7.7% | L14 Days | 22.2% | 6.3% | 0.0% |
| James Paxton | Mariners | L2 Years | 32.1% | 8.0% | 16.8% | 2017 | 31.0% | 7.0% | 14.1% | Road | 34.3% | 7.4% | 19.1% | L14 Days | 28.9% | 6.3% | 8.9% |
| James Shields | White Sox | L2 Years | 32.8% | 17.8% | 16.2% | 2017 | 34.2% | 17.5% | 13.5% | Home | 32.8% | 18.3% | 18.6% | L14 Days | 37.8% | 15.0% | 29.7% |
| Jason Hammel | Royals | L2 Years | 33.0% | 13.0% | 15.4% | 2017 | 29.5% | 9.8% | 12.7% | Home | 28.9% | 9.8% | 10.4% | L14 Days | 30.8% | 15.4% | 23.1% |
| Johnny Cueto | Giants | L2 Years | 30.0% | 10.7% | 11.4% | 2017 | 35.2% | 16.1% | 18.9% | Road | 31.5% | 17.2% | 12.9% | L14 Days | 32.5% | 5.9% | 10.0% |
| Jon Gray | Rockies | L2 Years | 31.4% | 12.0% | 12.5% | 2017 | 27.4% | 11.1% | 6.8% | Road | 32.6% | 11.8% | 15.7% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 7.7% | 13.9% |
| Jordan Montgomery | Yankees | L2 Years | 27.6% | 11.5% | 12.9% | 2017 | 27.6% | 11.5% | 12.9% | Road | 24.3% | 11.1% | 9.3% | L14 Days | 30.0% | 16.7% | 10.0% |
| Jose Berrios | Twins | L2 Years | 29.1% | 13.8% | 9.5% | 2017 | 25.0% | 11.5% | 4.1% | Road | 30.1% | 16.7% | 10.4% | L14 Days | 30.0% | 25.0% | 1.7% |
| Justin Verlander | Tigers | L2 Years | 29.3% | 9.0% | 10.2% | 2017 | 37.7% | 9.2% | 21.9% | Home | 33.3% | 10.5% | 14.3% | L14 Days | 37.1% | 10.5% | 16.1% |
| Kevin Gausman | Orioles | L2 Years | 30.5% | 14.6% | 11.1% | 2017 | 33.0% | 12.6% | 14.6% | Home | 30.2% | 12.2% | 10.4% | L14 Days | 23.8% | 0.0% | -4.8% |
| Martin Perez | Rangers | L2 Years | 30.0% | 9.6% | 14.0% | 2017 | 34.9% | 11.0% | 21.7% | Road | 33.5% | 8.7% | 19.2% | L14 Days | 28.6% | 0.0% | 19.1% |
| Mike Leake | Cardinals | L2 Years | 30.4% | 13.0% | 13.2% | 2017 | 29.7% | 15.0% | 13.1% | Road | 32.9% | 10.4% | 16.7% | L14 Days | 35.9% | 37.5% | 25.6% |
| Mike Montgomery | Cubs | L2 Years | 28.8% | 16.4% | 10.7% | 2017 | 31.7% | 8.9% | 10.1% | Road | 27.3% | 12.5% | 10.0% | L14 Days | 36.8% | 18.2% | 21.0% |
| Nick Pivetta | Phillies | L2 Years | 34.8% | 16.9% | 21.8% | 2017 | 34.8% | 16.9% | 21.8% | Road | 31.3% | 10.0% | 18.2% | L14 Days | 29.6% | 18.5% | 13.7% |
| R.A. Dickey | Braves | L2 Years | 27.2% | 11.9% | 4.7% | 2017 | 28.1% | 13.5% | 3.3% | Home | 28.8% | 15.7% | 5.0% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 0.0% | 2.9% |
| Ricky Nolasco | Angels | L2 Years | 35.3% | 14.6% | 21.3% | 2017 | 37.9% | 19.8% | 24.1% | Home | 31.8% | 11.8% | 15.7% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 10.5% | 19.6% |
| Sonny Gray | Athletics | L2 Years | 30.8% | 15.9% | 14.7% | 2017 | 29.9% | 15.7% | 13.8% | Home | 30.2% | 13.3% | 12.6% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 12.5% | -5.5% |
| Taijuan Walker | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 30.6% | 14.1% | 12.9% | 2017 | 34.7% | 8.9% | 20.6% | Road | 30.9% | 14.0% | 11.4% | L14 Days | 34.4% | 10.0% | 26.2% |
| Tim Adleman | Reds | L2 Years | 33.8% | 15.9% | 18.0% | 2017 | 32.4% | 17.9% | 15.0% | Home | 34.5% | 18.5% | 18.3% | L14 Days | 36.4% | 33.3% | 13.7% |
| Zach Davies | Brewers | L2 Years | 32.4% | 13.5% | 12.2% | 2017 | 30.5% | 16.1% | 9.8% | Home | 34.4% | 14.6% | 15.7% | L14 Days | 29.7% | 11.1% | 18.9% |
Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tigers | Home | 47.2% | 13.9% | 33.6% | RH | 41.7% | 12.0% | 26.3% | L7Days | 34.2% | 4.8% | 18.4% |
| Marlins | Home | 31.5% | 15.5% | 9.7% | RH | 31.1% | 14.6% | 11.1% | L7Days | 27.5% | 16.2% | 9.5% |
| Athletics | Home | 31.5% | 15.4% | 16.9% | RH | 34.1% | 15.0% | 17.4% | L7Days | 29.1% | 14.5% | 12.6% |
| Twins | Road | 30.0% | 12.3% | 12.1% | RH | 33.0% | 13.1% | 16.5% | L7Days | 32.8% | 7.3% | 14.0% |
| Giants | Road | 31.2% | 11.0% | 10.4% | LH | 28.2% | 8.1% | 8.5% | L7Days | 33.5% | 7.0% | 14.0% |
| Dodgers | Road | 33.0% | 14.1% | 16.9% | RH | 35.0% | 15.3% | 19.7% | L7Days | 40.0% | 16.7% | 23.2% |
| Yankees | Road | 31.7% | 12.8% | 13.7% | LH | 29.1% | 13.0% | 8.3% | L7Days | 24.6% | 14.3% | 6.1% |
| Cardinals | Road | 32.7% | 13.9% | 15.2% | RH | 32.0% | 14.1% | 13.2% | L7Days | 34.9% | 19.4% | 19.0% |
| Reds | Home | 28.9% | 16.2% | 7.5% | LH | 28.9% | 16.5% | 8.5% | L7Days | 35.1% | 16.9% | 17.8% |
| Rockies | Road | 29.0% | 11.5% | 7.8% | RH | 29.5% | 12.9% | 9.3% | L7Days | 32.9% | 18.9% | 18.2% |
| Angels | Home | 28.5% | 12.9% | 10.0% | RH | 30.7% | 13.1% | 11.3% | L7Days | 38.2% | 15.6% | 19.8% |
| White Sox | Home | 28.5% | 12.9% | 7.1% | LH | 29.4% | 14.9% | 10.1% | L7Days | 28.7% | 13.0% | 8.9% |
| Mariners | Road | 32.3% | 10.8% | 14.6% | RH | 30.7% | 12.5% | 13.0% | L7Days | 25.5% | 11.9% | 7.9% |
| Rangers | Road | 31.0% | 16.6% | 9.4% | RH | 34.1% | 17.6% | 14.4% | L7Days | 42.1% | 20.7% | 28.3% |
| Padres | Home | 28.1% | 12.5% | 5.9% | RH | 28.4% | 14.0% | 5.7% | L7Days | 26.3% | 8.3% | 2.9% |
| Mets | Home | 33.6% | 10.4% | 15.0% | RH | 35.3% | 13.1% | 18.1% | L7Days | 32.3% | 11.7% | 14.2% |
| Red Sox | Home | 37.3% | 9.1% | 20.0% | LH | 33.3% | 9.7% | 11.5% | L7Days | 33.7% | 12.0% | 12.4% |
| Astros | Home | 31.0% | 15.9% | 12.8% | RH | 33.4% | 16.2% | 15.9% | L7Days | 33.0% | 22.1% | 11.9% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 32.4% | 15.0% | 13.6% | RH | 31.0% | 14.8% | 10.4% | L7Days | 30.2% | 13.9% | 6.2% |
| Cubs | Road | 28.6% | 13.5% | 8.0% | RH | 30.0% | 13.9% | 11.8% | L7Days | 32.5% | 13.7% | 11.5% |
| Royals | Home | 31.6% | 9.7% | 12.3% | LH | 30.3% | 12.1% | 10.4% | L7Days | 28.3% | 13.6% | 4.4% |
| Pirates | Home | 29.7% | 9.5% | 8.2% | RH | 30.5% | 10.6% | 9.4% | L7Days | 35.2% | 11.1% | 21.7% |
| Orioles | Home | 29.5% | 15.8% | 8.3% | LH | 34.9% | 13.2% | 16.6% | L7Days | 32.1% | 17.0% | 11.9% |
| Brewers | Home | 37.5% | 19.7% | 17.8% | RH | 33.8% | 20.2% | 14.7% | L7Days | 33.9% | 17.7% | 18.7% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 31.4% | 13.6% | 11.0% | RH | 36.3% | 15.1% | 19.3% | L7Days | 26.6% | 12.8% | 5.5% |
| Rays | Road | 34.5% | 17.2% | 15.5% | RH | 37.0% | 18.5% | 19.8% | L7Days | 35.7% | 11.6% | 20.0% |
| Indians | Road | 36.2% | 12.2% | 19.4% | RH | 33.7% | 11.9% | 17.2% | L7Days | 31.8% | 13.0% | 10.6% |
| Braves | Home | 29.1% | 11.3% | 9.5% | RH | 30.6% | 11.3% | 11.8% | L7Days | 28.2% | 13.2% | 12.9% |
| Nationals | Road | 30.8% | 14.8% | 12.5% | RH | 31.6% | 14.1% | 14.8% | L7Days | 29.3% | 3.8% | 15.3% |
| Phillies | Road | 29.3% | 10.5% | 8.0% | RH | 30.1% | 11.4% | 9.2% | L7Days | 30.1% | 20.4% | 12.3% |
K/SwStr Chart (2017 LG AVG – 20.5 K% – 9.7 SwStr% – 2.1 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Sanchez | TOR | 15.1% | 6.7% | 2.25 | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| Brandon McCarthy | LOS | 18.5% | 8.3% | 2.23 | 8.4% | 6.2% | 1.35 |
| Carlos Carrasco | CLE | 27.5% | 12.8% | 2.15 | 31.7% | 14.6% | 2.17 |
| Charlie Morton | HOU | 24.9% | 10.0% | 2.49 | 14.3% | 8.4% | 1.70 |
| Clayton Richard | SDG | 15.9% | 7.6% | 2.09 | 12.8% | 6.0% | 2.13 |
| Dan Straily | MIA | 23.5% | 11.7% | 2.01 | 20.6% | 11.7% | 1.76 |
| Drew Pomeranz | BOS | 25.5% | 10.5% | 2.43 | 19.2% | 9.5% | 2.02 |
| Gerrit Cole | PIT | 20.6% | 8.8% | 2.34 | 21.5% | 8.1% | 2.65 |
| Gio Gonzalez | WAS | 23.5% | 9.7% | 2.42 | 29.0% | 11.2% | 2.59 |
| Jacob deGrom | NYM | 28.4% | 14.2% | 2.00 | 25.0% | 12.6% | 1.98 |
| Jacob Faria | TAM | 24.3% | 11.7% | 2.08 | 24.8% | 10.7% | 2.32 |
| James Paxton | SEA | 27.2% | 13.0% | 2.09 | 25.0% | 12.4% | 2.02 |
| James Shields | CHW | 18.4% | 9.0% | 2.04 | 14.9% | 8.2% | 1.82 |
| Jason Hammel | KAN | 17.9% | 9.7% | 1.85 | 18.6% | 12.3% | 1.51 |
| Johnny Cueto | SFO | 20.3% | 10.5% | 1.93 | 12.1% | 6.8% | 1.78 |
| Jon Gray | COL | 22.6% | 8.5% | 2.66 | 28.3% | 10.5% | 2.70 |
| Jordan Montgomery | NYY | 22.8% | 13.5% | 1.69 | 22.4% | 15.2% | 1.47 |
| Jose Berrios | MIN | 23.7% | 10.1% | 2.35 | 23.2% | 10.0% | 2.32 |
| Justin Verlander | DET | 21.0% | 9.0% | 2.33 | 20.3% | 8.9% | 2.28 |
| Kevin Gausman | BAL | 18.4% | 9.6% | 1.92 | 25.7% | 12.1% | 2.12 |
| Martin Perez | TEX | 16.2% | 7.5% | 2.16 | 15.8% | 9.9% | 1.60 |
| Mike Leake | STL | 16.7% | 8.3% | 2.01 | 12.9% | 8.2% | 1.57 |
| Mike Montgomery | CHC | 19.6% | 8.7% | 2.25 | 20.6% | 8.1% | 2.54 |
| Nick Pivetta | PHI | 24.5% | 8.5% | 2.88 | 26.4% | 9.0% | 2.93 |
| R.A. Dickey | ATL | 15.4% | 8.1% | 1.90 | 23.0% | 11.0% | 2.09 |
| Ricky Nolasco | ANA | 19.5% | 10.7% | 1.82 | 16.3% | 10.1% | 1.61 |
| Sonny Gray | OAK | 22.8% | 11.5% | 1.98 | 24.2% | 13.2% | 1.83 |
| Taijuan Walker | ARI | 20.2% | 9.3% | 2.17 | 19.4% | 8.8% | 2.20 |
| Tim Adleman | CIN | 21.6% | 11.1% | 1.95 | 22.0% | 11.3% | 1.95 |
| Zach Davies | MIL | 14.7% | 7.1% | 2.07 | 10.5% | 6.3% | 1.67 |
Just the single outlier today for a non-qualifier.
ERA Estimators Chart (2017 LG AVG – 4.48 ERA – 4.48 SIERA – 4.41 xFIP – 4.50 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | Season DRA | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Sanchez | TOR | 4.85 | 5.49 | 0.64 | 5.44 | 0.59 | 6.38 | 1.53 | 5.76 | 0.91 | 27 | 9.16 | -17.84 | 12.49 | -14.51 | 25.95 | -1.05 |
| Brandon McCarthy | LOS | 3.12 | 4.57 | 1.45 | 4.34 | 1.22 | 3.25 | 0.13 | 4.08 | 0.96 | 2.66 | 6.22 | 3.56 | 6.01 | 3.35 | 3.64 | 0.98 |
| Carlos Carrasco | CLE | 3.44 | 3.49 | 0.05 | 3.4 | -0.04 | 3.41 | -0.03 | 3.05 | -0.39 | 3.6 | 3.02 | -0.58 | 2.79 | -0.81 | 2.95 | -0.65 |
| Charlie Morton | HOU | 3.82 | 3.95 | 0.13 | 3.73 | -0.09 | 4.11 | 0.29 | 3.96 | 0.14 | 1.5 | 5.51 | 4.01 | 5.23 | 3.73 | 5.31 | 3.81 |
| Clayton Richard | SDG | 4.66 | 4.29 | -0.37 | 3.97 | -0.69 | 4.42 | -0.24 | 5.32 | 0.66 | 4.99 | 5.15 | 0.16 | 4.92 | -0.07 | 5.53 | 0.54 |
| Dan Straily | MIA | 3.31 | 4.13 | 0.82 | 4.47 | 1.16 | 3.99 | 0.68 | 3.15 | -0.16 | 2.78 | 4.03 | 1.25 | 4.25 | 1.47 | 3.82 | 1.04 |
| Drew Pomeranz | BOS | 3.6 | 3.93 | 0.33 | 3.68 | 0.08 | 3.63 | 0.03 | 3.40 | -0.20 | 2.91 | 4.64 | 1.73 | 4.18 | 1.27 | 3.47 | 0.56 |
| Gerrit Cole | PIT | 4.43 | 4.15 | -0.28 | 3.94 | -0.49 | 4.48 | 0.05 | 3.87 | -0.56 | 3.45 | 4.21 | 0.76 | 3.91 | 0.46 | 3.98 | 0.53 |
| Gio Gonzalez | WAS | 2.86 | 4.45 | 1.59 | 4.28 | 1.42 | 4.19 | 1.33 | 3.62 | 0.76 | 2.54 | 3.53 | 0.99 | 3.56 | 1.02 | 3.25 | 0.71 |
| Jacob deGrom | NYM | 3.65 | 3.6 | -0.05 | 3.34 | -0.31 | 3.97 | 0.32 | 2.85 | -0.80 | 1.62 | 3.58 | 1.96 | 3.38 | 1.76 | 3.92 | 2.3 |
| Jacob Faria | TAM | 2.11 | 3.84 | 1.73 | 3.97 | 1.86 | 3.17 | 1.06 | 4.03 | 1.92 | 2.25 | 3.77 | 1.52 | 4.09 | 1.84 | 3.3 | 1.05 |
| James Paxton | SEA | 3.21 | 3.83 | 0.62 | 3.61 | 0.4 | 2.85 | -0.36 | 2.83 | -0.38 | 5.4 | 4.33 | -1.07 | 4.02 | -1.38 | 4.08 | -1.32 |
| James Shields | CHW | 4.95 | 5.45 | 0.5 | 6.11 | 1.16 | 6.89 | 1.94 | 6.76 | 1.81 | 7.78 | 5.57 | -2.21 | 6.46 | -1.32 | 8.18 | 0.4 |
| Jason Hammel | KAN | 5.04 | 4.84 | -0.2 | 5.21 | 0.17 | 4.51 | -0.53 | 5.16 | 0.12 | 4.2 | 4.57 | 0.37 | 4.87 | 0.67 | 4.35 | 0.15 |
| Johnny Cueto | SFO | 4.51 | 4.51 | 0 | 4.41 | -0.1 | 4.73 | 0.22 | 5.30 | 0.79 | 4.99 | 6.05 | 1.06 | 6.11 | 1.12 | 6.44 | 1.45 |
| Jon Gray | COL | 3.75 | 4.02 | 0.27 | 3.61 | -0.14 | 3.36 | -0.39 | 3.82 | 0.07 | 3.09 | 3.17 | 0.08 | 3.08 | -0.01 | 2.2 | -0.89 |
| Jordan Montgomery | NYY | 3.65 | 4.19 | 0.54 | 4.4 | 0.75 | 4.05 | 0.4 | 3.92 | 0.27 | 3.86 | 3.88 | 0.02 | 4.12 | 0.26 | 5.08 | 1.22 |
| Jose Berrios | MIN | 3.53 | 3.97 | 0.44 | 4.26 | 0.73 | 3.95 | 0.42 | 3.39 | -0.14 | 4.19 | 3.9 | -0.29 | 3.97 | -0.22 | 4.05 | -0.14 |
| Justin Verlander | DET | 4.73 | 4.89 | 0.16 | 5.03 | 0.3 | 4.28 | -0.45 | 4.10 | -0.63 | 4.93 | 4.99 | 0.06 | 4.71 | -0.22 | 3.61 | -1.32 |
| Kevin Gausman | BAL | 5.85 | 4.93 | -0.92 | 4.9 | -0.95 | 4.73 | -1.12 | 5.96 | 0.11 | 5.81 | 4.27 | -1.54 | 4.27 | -1.54 | 3.63 | -2.18 |
| Martin Perez | TEX | 4.6 | 5.02 | 0.42 | 4.62 | 0.02 | 4.28 | -0.32 | 5.41 | 0.81 | 4.5 | 4.88 | 0.38 | 4.44 | -0.06 | 3.65 | -0.85 |
| Mike Leake | STL | 3.12 | 4.13 | 1.01 | 3.84 | 0.72 | 3.96 | 0.84 | 4.26 | 1.14 | 4.25 | 4.59 | 0.34 | 4.1 | -0.15 | 4.83 | 0.58 |
| Mike Montgomery | CHC | 3.75 | 4.48 | 0.73 | 4.31 | 0.56 | 3.91 | 0.16 | 5.31 | 1.56 | 5.59 | 4.15 | -1.44 | 4.09 | -1.5 | 3.63 | -1.96 |
| Nick Pivetta | PHI | 4.73 | 4.49 | -0.24 | 4.72 | -0.01 | 5.22 | 0.49 | 5.53 | 0.80 | 4.41 | 4.34 | -0.07 | 4.7 | 0.29 | 5.11 | 0.7 |
| R.A. Dickey | ATL | 4.23 | 5.12 | 0.89 | 5.1 | 0.87 | 5.07 | 0.84 | 5.43 | 1.20 | 3.09 | 3.91 | 0.82 | 4.35 | 1.26 | 3.4 | 0.31 |
| Ricky Nolasco | ANA | 5.06 | 4.5 | -0.56 | 4.64 | -0.42 | 5.62 | 0.56 | 6.47 | 1.41 | 5.09 | 4.79 | -0.3 | 4.75 | -0.34 | 5.41 | 0.32 |
| Sonny Gray | OAK | 4 | 3.83 | -0.17 | 3.41 | -0.59 | 3.58 | -0.42 | 3.14 | -0.86 | 3.38 | 3.79 | 0.41 | 3.31 | -0.07 | 3.25 | -0.13 |
| Taijuan Walker | ARI | 3.65 | 4.55 | 0.9 | 4.47 | 0.82 | 3.86 | 0.21 | 4.27 | 0.62 | 3.99 | 4.9 | 0.91 | 4.88 | 0.89 | 4.44 | 0.45 |
| Tim Adleman | CIN | 4.71 | 4.58 | -0.13 | 4.92 | 0.21 | 5.61 | 0.9 | 6.59 | 1.88 | 5.23 | 4.75 | -0.48 | 5.25 | 0.02 | 7.08 | 1.85 |
| Zach Davies | MIL | 4.9 | 4.83 | -0.07 | 4.7 | -0.2 | 5 | 0.1 | 5.68 | 0.78 | 5.28 | 4.66 | -0.62 | 4.45 | -0.83 | 4.77 | -0.51 |
Jacob Faria has posted a .250 BABIP with an exceptional IFFB rate (20.5%) in a small sample size. Although it can be considered a skill, it’s unlikely he can sustain that kind of rate. His 83.8 LOB% and 7.7 HR/FB are even less questionable than the BABIP, as in more likely to regress.
James Paxton has a 7.0 HR/FB. He has just an 8.5 career HR/FB, but that’s still a small sample in just over 350 innings. He does pitch in a friendly park, but may not be able to sustain something in single digits in the current league environment.
Editor’s Note: Michael Pineda has been scratched from his start today. Jordan Montgomery will start instead.
Michael Pineda is now up to a 22.5 HR/FB, well above his career rate and even his highest rate (17.0 HR/FB) last year. It may be a bit worse than it looks with a career high 50.9 GB% this year and while it’s certainly not good, it’s somewhat of a park effect we may have to live with. He’s had consecutive three homer efforts at home and overall contact authority seems right around average.
BABIP & Statcast Chart (2017 LG AVG – .297 BABIP – 44.3 GB% – 20.5 LD% – 9.4 IFFB% – 86.7 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | GB% | Pitcher LD% | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact | Exit Velocity | Barrels BBE | 95+ MPH EV | BBE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Sanchez | TOR | 0.306 | 0.284 | -0.022 | 43.7% | 0.218 | 13.3% | 86.7% | 87.4 | 9.20% | 37.90% | 87 |
| Brandon McCarthy | LOS | 0.278 | 0.272 | -0.006 | 43.4% | 0.228 | 22.1% | 86.8% | 83.8 | 1.70% | 19.80% | 232 |
| Carlos Carrasco | CLE | 0.305 | 0.290 | -0.015 | 44.7% | 0.223 | 10.3% | 86.9% | 86.6 | 8.20% | 33.30% | 267 |
| Charlie Morton | HOU | 0.295 | 0.313 | 0.018 | 50.6% | 0.233 | 6.7% | 84.0% | 86.8 | 4.60% | 38.70% | 173 |
| Clayton Richard | SDG | 0.302 | 0.338 | 0.036 | 57.3% | 0.217 | 5.4% | 90.4% | 85.6 | 4.40% | 31.10% | 360 |
| Dan Straily | MIA | 0.290 | 0.243 | -0.047 | 37.4% | 0.158 | 16.2% | 85.2% | 86.2 | 6.70% | 26.60% | 282 |
| Drew Pomeranz | BOS | 0.307 | 0.325 | 0.018 | 43.4% | 0.233 | 10.8% | 84.8% | 87.8 | 7.10% | 35.40% | 254 |
| Gerrit Cole | PIT | 0.303 | 0.298 | -0.005 | 46.1% | 0.209 | 7.5% | 87.1% | 85.7 | 8.70% | 34.40% | 334 |
| Gio Gonzalez | WAS | 0.295 | 0.259 | -0.036 | 44.1% | 0.195 | 11.1% | 86.1% | 85.8 | 5.50% | 30.00% | 307 |
| Jacob deGrom | NYM | 0.317 | 0.292 | -0.025 | 46.1% | 0.215 | 10.9% | 78.9% | 86.4 | 6.60% | 29.80% | 289 |
| Jacob Faria | TAM | 0.290 | 0.250 | -0.04 | 40.2% | 0.216 | 20.5% | 88.7% | 85.8 | 6.80% | 32.00% | 103 |
| James Paxton | SEA | 0.277 | 0.293 | 0.016 | 43.1% | 0.232 | 12.7% | 80.6% | 86.4 | 2.30% | 28.60% | 213 |
| James Shields | CHW | 0.288 | 0.238 | -0.05 | 32.4% | 0.162 | 7.0% | 84.6% | 87.5 | 9.00% | 39.60% | 111 |
| Jason Hammel | KAN | 0.299 | 0.321 | 0.022 | 36.9% | 0.208 | 9.1% | 88.5% | 87.8 | 8.30% | 33.70% | 315 |
| Johnny Cueto | SFO | 0.317 | 0.295 | -0.022 | 39.6% | 0.253 | 10.2% | 85.8% | 87.5 | 8.40% | 35.50% | 344 |
| Jon Gray | COL | 0.296 | 0.338 | 0.042 | 52.8% | 0.222 | 11.1% | 93.9% | 82.9 | 5.50% | 27.40% | 73 |
| Jordan Montgomery | NYY | 0.290 | 0.282 | -0.008 | 41.6% | 0.153 | 7.1% | 86.3% | 86.7 | 7.50% | 31.70% | 265 |
| Jose Berrios | MIN | 0.294 | 0.262 | -0.032 | 43.3% | 0.165 | 10.3% | 84.8% | 85.7 | 6.10% | 27.60% | 196 |
| Justin Verlander | DET | 0.308 | 0.316 | 0.008 | 33.8% | 0.245 | 9.9% | 86.8% | 88.2 | 8.20% | 37.30% | 316 |
| Kevin Gausman | BAL | 0.314 | 0.371 | 0.057 | 41.4% | 0.238 | 10.8% | 85.8% | 88.5 | 8.70% | 36.80% | 321 |
| Martin Perez | TEX | 0.288 | 0.357 | 0.069 | 44.5% | 0.272 | 8.5% | 90.1% | 87.4 | 5.40% | 34.90% | 295 |
| Mike Leake | STL | 0.296 | 0.272 | -0.024 | 55.8% | 0.206 | 2.5% | 89.8% | 87.2 | 5.20% | 35.60% | 343 |
| Mike Montgomery | CHC | 0.287 | 0.292 | 0.005 | 59.0% | 0.179 | 0.0% | 88.7% | 84.6 | 3.50% | 26.10% | 199 |
| Nick Pivetta | PHI | 0.299 | 0.302 | 0.003 | 36.3% | 0.194 | 9.9% | 87.1% | 88 | 9.30% | 37.90% | 161 |
| R.A. Dickey | ATL | 0.292 | 0.269 | -0.023 | 48.5% | 0.173 | 14.4% | 85.8% | 85.2 | 6.00% | 27.50% | 331 |
| Ricky Nolasco | ANA | 0.286 | 0.298 | 0.012 | 40.9% | 0.188 | 7.1% | 86.2% | 89.6 | 10.00% | 40.10% | 319 |
| Sonny Gray | OAK | 0.295 | 0.287 | -0.008 | 55.3% | 0.215 | 3.9% | 86.2% | 86.5 | 5.80% | 38.80% | 224 |
| Taijuan Walker | ARI | 0.290 | 0.295 | 0.005 | 47.3% | 0.202 | 7.6% | 85.7% | 88.1 | 4.80% | 35.50% | 248 |
| Tim Adleman | CIN | 0.290 | 0.270 | -0.02 | 37.7% | 0.174 | 7.5% | 82.5% | 86.5 | 6.20% | 31.50% | 241 |
| Zach Davies | MIL | 0.298 | 0.310 | 0.012 | 49.8% | 0.214 | 9.7% | 89.7% | 86.1 | 6.40% | 33.50% | 328 |
Jon Gray has a .338 BABIP that is likely a product of his a terribly spacious park and small sample size. The profile is fine and it has not even hurt his ERA much.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
Value Tier One
Carlos Carrasco (2) has been great over the last month aside from one problem start in Texas. Over that span, he has the highest strikeout rate on the board and is in a potentially high strikeout spot in Oakland tonight. While he’s generally a top alternative to the top guy, he’s rarely THE top guy on the slate, but that might change tonight. In fact, he’s the highest costing arm on DraftKings, where I might value guys like deGrom or even Pomeranz and Faria either equally or slightly better. He’s my top guy on FanDuel for $2.6K less, the largest price disparity on the board in either direction.
Jacob deGrom (1) has had different issues at different times this season. Sometimes it’s walks, sometimes it’s HRs. Recently his strikeouts are down, but still above average while he’s pitched deep into every game over the last month and is a great spot hosting the Rockies tonight, making seven innings or more a more likely proposition than not again.
Jon Gray (4t) is a talented pitcher with one of the biggest park upgrades a pitcher can experience tonight. While he’s among several at the top of the pack for just under $8K on DraftKings, his $6.6K cost on FanDuel is absurd makes him a top value along with the guys above even if strikeouts have been slightly down this year overall so far.
Value Tier Two
Drew Pomeranz (4t) may simply be under-valued here, particularly on DraftKings where he checks in at an average price tag. While he has shown some flaws in recent starts, he’s an above average pitcher in a spot that may be anywhere from reasonable to favorable depending upon what the Yankee lineup actually looks like.
Jacob Faria (4t) is coming off his worst start in the majors, at least in terms of peripherals if not run prevention. He’s been a quality arm and costs a bit above $8K in a favorable spot, though not an exceptionally high strikeout one.
Value Tier Three
James Paxton (3) downgrades in park against a tough opponent, but it’s still only a neutral run environment and he excels against RHBs. He’s above $9K (almost $10K on DraftKings), but has increased his strikeouts recently and pitched well over his last few starts after a rough patch in June.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Charlie Morton struck out just three in his return from a fairly lengthy DL stint, but should not have any workload restrictions here and has a low enough price tag that we can speculate he may perform up to his previous standards set this season at home against a Minnesota offense that strikes out a bit more than average.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
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