Advanced Stats - Pitching: Tuesday, May 29th
Back to our regularly scheduled….schedule? After a full day of baseball with 16 games including the double-header in Atlanta with 1pm and 10pm start times after a lengthy rain delay, things are back to normal for Tuesday with 14 games on the main slate.
While tonight’s slate is more towards the middle of rotations, there are couple of recent breakouts on the board, but one of them is facing the Yankees. It looks like we’re going to have to put in some work to figure this one out.
As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, ownership projections and the weather forecast as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. All of these things are available right here on the site.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB% L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anibal Sanchez | Braves | 6.4 | 4.13 | 5.1 | 38.1% | 0.99 | 3.60 | Mets | 98 | 107 | 110 | |
| Austin Bibens-Dirkx | Rangers | -0.9 | 5.04 | 5.7 | 40.3% | 0.92 | 4.99 | 3.46 | Mariners | 96 | 100 | 75 |
| Blake Snell | Rays | -0.8 | 4.43 | 5.2 | 40.7% | 0.96 | 4.63 | 3.14 | Athletics | 85 | 91 | 36 |
| CC Sabathia | Yankees | 4.6 | 4.39 | 5.6 | 49.9% | 1.03 | 3.95 | 6.22 | Astros | 120 | 116 | 129 |
| Charlie Morton | Astros | 9.5 | 3.51 | 5.9 | 52.6% | 1.03 | 3.72 | 3.61 | Yankees | 119 | 118 | 97 |
| Dan Straily | Marlins | -3.3 | 4.69 | 5.6 | 31.8% | 0.91 | 4.57 | 4.65 | Padres | 93 | 79 | 69 |
| Daniel Gossett | Athletics | 1.4 | 4.79 | 5.0 | 43.4% | 0.96 | 4.65 | 3.97 | Rays | 104 | 105 | 93 |
| Danny Duffy | Royals | 1.4 | 4.10 | 6.1 | 37.0% | 1.04 | 4.38 | 5.01 | Twins | 92 | 91 | 55 |
| Dylan Bundy | Orioles | -7.7 | 4.09 | 5.7 | 34.7% | 0.99 | 4.70 | 2.24 | Nationals | 106 | 103 | 112 |
| Felix Hernandez | Mariners | -4.8 | 4.52 | 5.7 | 45.9% | 0.92 | 4.16 | 5.08 | Rangers | 77 | 80 | 116 |
| Jake Arrieta | Phillies | -4.6 | 4.19 | 5.8 | 48.8% | 0.90 | 4.21 | 3.94 | Dodgers | 92 | 101 | 97 |
| Jeff Samardzija | Giants | -6.8 | 4.07 | 6.1 | 42.5% | 1.33 | 4.00 | 6.87 | Rockies | 82 | 69 | 95 |
| Jeremy Hellickson | Nationals | -6.4 | 4.77 | 5.7 | 38.3% | 0.99 | 4.83 | 2.92 | Orioles | 97 | 82 | 61 |
| Jon Lester | Cubs | 12.9 | 3.94 | 5.9 | 45.6% | 0.98 | 4.11 | 3.29 | Pirates | 111 | 115 | 73 |
| Kenta Maeda | Dodgers | -4 | 3.59 | 5.2 | 40.8% | 0.90 | 3.35 | 2.35 | Phillies | 82 | 94 | 72 |
| Kyle Freeland | Rockies | -0.4 | 4.73 | 5.5 | 52.6% | 1.33 | 4.20 | 4.24 | Giants | 86 | 100 | 87 |
| Kyle Gibson | Twins | -4 | 4.57 | 5.7 | 48.7% | 1.04 | 4.15 | 5.01 | Royals | 88 | 87 | 98 |
| Lucas Giolito | White Sox | -4.3 | 5.69 | 5.2 | 42.0% | 1.06 | 5.95 | 6.88 | Indians | 122 | 98 | 118 |
| Luis Castillo | Reds | -4.8 | 3.81 | 5.6 | 53.9% | 1.00 | 3.72 | 5.38 | Diamondbacks | 79 | 66 | 65 |
| Marco Estrada | Blue Jays | -3.2 | 4.60 | 5.7 | 30.0% | 1.10 | 5.06 | 5.01 | Red Sox | 123 | 120 | 106 |
| Michael Fulmer | Tigers | 1.2 | 4.30 | 6.3 | 49.0% | 1.07 | 4.26 | 4.16 | Angels | 117 | 109 | 104 |
| Michael Wacha | Cardinals | -0.2 | 4.18 | 5.5 | 46.3% | 1.02 | 4.15 | 2.96 | Brewers | 95 | 103 | 128 |
| Mike Clevinger | Indians | 10.2 | 4.33 | 5.4 | 41.5% | 1.06 | 3.82 | 4.99 | White Sox | 102 | 105 | 119 |
| Nick Kingham | Pirates | -2.2 | 2.61 | 6.0 | 43.5% | 0.98 | 2.55 | 3.28 | Cubs | 105 | 109 | 117 |
| Nick Tropeano | Angels | 6.3 | 4.56 | 5.2 | 33.8% | 1.07 | 4.00 | 4.20 | Tigers | 104 | 90 | 106 |
| Rick Porcello | Red Sox | 4.8 | 3.98 | 6.4 | 41.8% | 1.10 | 4.10 | 3.87 | Blue Jays | 93 | 96 | 82 |
| Steven Matz | Mets | -0.1 | 4.23 | 5.3 | 48.3% | 0.99 | 5.12 | 5.45 | Braves | 104 | 133 | 107 |
| Tyson Ross | Padres | -5.5 | 4.88 | 5.3 | 45.4% | 0.91 | 5.19 | 4.36 | Marlins | 75 | 77 | 92 |
| Zach Davies | Brewers | 7.3 | 4.40 | 5.8 | 48.0% | 1.02 | 4.53 | 5.93 | Cardinals | 94 | 94 | 72 |
| Zack Godley | Diamondbacks | 6.9 | 3.96 | 5.8 | 53.8% | 1.00 | 3.47 | 6.32 | Reds | 98 | 88 | 113 |
Blake Snell has completed six innings or better in eight of nine starts and it’s been the “or better” part in six of eight. He’s struck out exactly eight in each of his last two and allowed more than two runs only twice this season. His 27.1 K% is a top five mark on tonight’s board. His 24.2% 95+ mph EV is lowest on the board. He’s in one of several extremely appealing matchups tonight in Oakland. This offense seems to have fallen apart without Khris Davis. They have the lowest wRC+ over the last week (36) and a 17.1 K-BB% vs LHP this year. Ironic that they have the highest Hard-Soft% split rate and just a 9.7 HR/FB against them with similar results at home (7.8 HR/FB).
Charlie Morton has gone at least seven innings in four of his last seven starts and has the largest strikeout rate on the board (31%). However, he’s failed to strike out more than five in three of his last six starts, surpassing a 9.8 SwStr% just twice in that span. He’s faced a difficult schedule that has included Cleveland (twice), NY (AL) and LA (AL), but these can be considered reasons for caution, if not concern in an extremely difficult matchup at Yankee Stadium (10.5 BB%, 16.8 HR/FB vs RHP – 12.7 BB%, 16.6 HR/FB at home). He also has the top xwOBA (.255) and second lowest rate of Barrels/BBE (3.5%) on the board. Another potential issue we have is that he throws either a four seam, curve or sinker at RHBs over 80% of the time. The Yankees have a 47.9 wFB and 12.3 wCB via Fangraphs, both the highest team marks against those pitches on the board. He did dominate the team in his first appearance against them this season, in which he threw those pitches close to 80% of the time, but with a season high 13.7% cutters, a pitch he’s thrown just 6.5% of the time this year.
Dan Straily has thrown 13 innings of one run ball with 11 strikeouts over his last two starts. His league average swinging strike rate suggests improvement in his 17 K% so far. In fact, his career 20.3 K% looks about right. That said, there are certainly major concerns, one being that he’s walked at least three in every start, another being that he’s being destroyed upon contact. These are very dangerous, bad, bad qualities. What we love is the matchup in San Diego (26.6 K% vs RHP). The Padres have a ridiculous 23.9 K-BB% over the last week.
Dylan Bundy threw a complete game at the White Sox last time out (three runs), striking out a season high 14 on a Thursday afternoon. While it seems as if he’s righted the ship (struck out 29 of last 82 batters) after a disastrous run (9 IP – 22 R – 9 HR), he’s still dealing some long balls (four HRs last two starts. There’s some danger here against the Nationals in that park. He also has the highest SwStr% on the board. Ten of his 14 HRs have been surrendered to RHBs, which is doubly strange when considering LHBs have a wOBA 69 points higher.
Jake Arrieta has exceeded five strikeouts against just two teams, Pittsburgh earlier in the season and Atlanta last time out. These two teams are among the top 10 in lowest strikeout rate against RHP this year. So who the (bleep) knows? Against the Pirates, he threw a season high rate of sinkers, so that seems especially fluky, but he threw a season high 23.9% cutters against the Braves (13.4% season rate). Pitch Info and Statcast are calling it a slider though, so let’s go with that. Whatever it is, the pitch has a 33.3 Whiff% and .192 xwOBA this season, so why not more of those and fewer sinkers (11.7 Whiff%, .338 xwOBA). Perhaps it’s a starting point. He needs to balance out the weak ground balls, which are great, with more strikeouts to have any kind of daily fantasy usefulness. The Dodgers have been a neutral matchup in a great park this year.
Jeremy Hellickson has been to 22 batters or fewer in every start with a high of 93 pitches (in fact, he’s gone beyond 75 in just one of his last five), but the overall results have been fantastic. He’s allowed a total of two runs over his last four starts. He’s missing bats at about a league average rate and has a perfectly average .316 xwOBA, even if his ERA doesn’t fit his estimators. Tonight, he’s in a dangerous park, but his old team has just a 5.8 HR/FB over the last week. It’s also a high upside spot (17.5 K-BB% vs RHP).
Jon Lester has been a perfectly league average arm, which is not what his ERA suggests and not what he’s used to, but still perfectly useful. He’s still missing enough bats (league average) and may not have a ton of strikeout upside in this particular spot (Pirates 9.9 K-BB% vs LHP), but the park smothers right-handed power, which can be a bit of a boost to southpaws.
Kenta Maeda has 30.8 K% that’s two-tenths of a point off the top mark tonight. His last two starts look like this: 14.2 IP – 4 H – 0 R – 4 BB – 20 K – 51 BF. Perhaps 111 pitches last time out is the most exciting number considering the rest of the season, though it may not be as exciting for tonight’s prospects. He has thrown at least 96 pitches in three straight and five of his last seven starts. He misses a lot of bats and is a strong contact manager. His .283 xwOBA is second best on the board. He’s also in a great park adjusted spot (Phillies 26.4 K% vs RHP, -1.4 Hard-Soft% last seven days).
Luis Castillo has increased his strikeout rate to 26.3% over the last month, but his swinging strike rate continues to shoot up and is the highest on the board over this span (16.3%). After allowing no fewer than three runs in any of his first six starts, he hasn’t allowed that many in any of his five May starts. Aside from a 30+ point increase in strand rate that’s probably not sustainable in either direction, the key part of improvement comes from more than doubling his K-BB (8.4% to 18.6% in May). The majority of the hard contact still stands, it’s just that batters are making less overall contact. He might be in the top park adjusted spot on the board too. Arizona has a 0.958 run factor for 2018 via ESPN, which is better than our assumed neutrality for pitchers and the Diamondbacks have a 26 K% vs RHP.
Nick Kingham struck out 25.2% in 30 AAA innings this season, which is his highest mark since A-ball, while one can see that his 30.4 K% through three major league starts is on the border of sustainability with an 11.1 SwStr%. The slider appears to be his one significantly above average pitch (.253 xwOBA, 45.9 Whiff%), which he throws close to 20% of the time. He has some fluky overall numbers in a small sample, such as an ERA above his estimators despite a .227 BABIP and a .289 xwOBA despite a 90.7 mph aEV that is second worst on the board. Things will need to be ironed out and it’s not an fantastic spot against the Cubs tonight, but we can’t say he’s without upside.
Rick Porcello has allowed at least three runs in six of his last seven starts, has not gone past six innings in five straight and has five strikeouts or fewer in three of his last four. Things aren’t going as well right now as they were earlier in the season. All five of his HRs have come in his last six starts. He’s been below his season average rate for sliders in each of his last three starts for some reason. His overall numbers are still fine however. His .285 xwOBA is third best on the board and while the park boost neutralizes what’s been a below average offense (stars and scrubs), they do offer upside in a 24.8 K% vs RHP.
Tyson Ross has gone at least six innings in nine of 10 starts and is striking out a quarter of the batters he’s faced. He’s facing the Marlins (77 wRC+, 16.8 K-BB% vs RHP).
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is usually extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm.
League AVG (.287 BABIP – 72.8 LOB% – 13.4 HR/FB)
Michael Wacha (.278 – 76.1% – 8.7) has allowed three unearned runs as well (14.2%). He hasn’t allowed more than two runs (earned or not) in seven straight starts, but has gone beyond six innings just twice. However, he’s surpassed 100 pitches in each of his last two starts for the first two times this season. All that said, he’s probably fine and even in a spot with some upside (Brewers 24.6 K% vs RHP), but it’s also not a particularly great spot (Brewers 16.5 HR/FB vs RHP, 32.1 Hard-Soft% last seven days) and the cost is rising.
C.C. Sabathia (.250 – 69.3% – 13) has struggled in three straight starts (13.1 IP – 19 H – 13 ER – 4 HR – 7 BB – 11 K – 67 BF) and has to contend with the Houston offense tonight.
Nick Tropeano (.260 – 79.3% – 12.8) is not a strong contact manager and the Tigers have a 20.7 K% vs RHP in a fairly positive run environment.
Steven Matz (.243 – 75.4% – 20.9) has a board high 2.93 K/SwStr with a significant reduction in his strikeout rate already over the last month without his SwStr% budging. In addition, he faces an offense with a 17.8 K% and 16.8 HR/FB vs LHP.
Anibal Sanchez (.278 – 96.4% – 9.1) returns from a hamstring injury that kept him out a month and a half. He faced just 11 batters in his most recent rehab start. It’ll be curious how far they wish to push him though, considering last night’s double-header that ended after 1am.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Felix Hernandez had me going nuts for a few minutes trying to figure out why the numbers had him as a borderline option tonight, but it’s entirely due to opposition and park (Rangers 19.7 K-BB% on the road). He’s allowed at least three runs in six straight starts, but has failed to record at least one out in the sixth just twice this year. I wouldn’t do it, but you could get a quality start with enough strikeouts to be useful at less than $7K here. It’s not out of the question in this matchup.
Zack Godley has cut his K-BB% just about in half since last season. He’s still generating ground balls, but even that’s down five points. The matchup is fine against the Reds, but they don’t strike out a lot (21.2% vs RHP). He doesn’t have a single start in his last four without at least either four walks or four runs. His velocity is down and both his sinker and cutter, which comprise more than 50% of pitches this year, have an xwOBA above .430. The sinker was above .400 last year too (cutter below .250), but even the launch angle has risen seven points (-3 to +4) on that pitch.
Michael Fulmer snapped a string of three straight starts with a 40+ O-Swing% last time out, but still has a sub-30 Z-O-Swing% in that start. He’s been doing a good job of missing bats in recent starts, even if the overall results aren’t there, potentially because his walks are up too (they don’t swing at everything outside the strike zone). The spot is too tough tonight. The Angels can do some damage and don’t swing and miss a lot (20.1 K% vs RHP).
Kyle Gibson has a 12.1 K-BB%, .330 wOBA and 37.8 Hard% in five starts since dominating the Yankees, which covers the entire month of May. It’s basically a bit below average and while the Royals represent a fine matchup from a run prevention standpoint, their 17.5 K% vs RHP is the lowest split on the board.
Danny Duffy threw 7.2 innings of one run ball in the Texas heat last time out, but has a single digit SwStr% in three straight starts and has been a below average bat misser this season with a .408 xwOBA that’s second worst on the board. So he’s not missing bats and allowing a lot of hard contact. Not a great combination. Now, the Twins have a 25.1 K% and 7.8 HR/FB vs LHP with a league low 3.6 HR/FB overall in the last seven days, but the addition of Miguel Sano back into the lineup gives them two very dangerous right-handed bats at the top of the order and he has some concerning platoon splits. All of that said, he’s a pitcher who has had success in the past and costs the minimum on DraftKings.
Daniel Gossett has a 16.8% career strikeout rate in 105 big league innings.
Marco Estrada has the worst park adjusted matchup on the board at Fenway, and yes I realize there’s a game at Coors tonight.
Peripherals (Pitcher)
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anibal Sanchez | Braves | L2 Yrs | 21.2% | 6.3% | 17.2% | 15.6% | Season | 24.1% | 10.3% | 9.1% | -18.9% | Home | 25.4% | 5.2% | 15.5% | 21.8% | L14Days | ||||
| Austin Bibens-Dirkx | Rangers | L2 Yrs | 13.4% | 6.4% | 14.6% | 21.2% | Season | 20.7% | 3.5% | 38.1% | Road | 14.1% | 5.3% | 17.3% | 16.9% | L14Days | 20.7% | 3.5% | 38.1% | ||
| Blake Snell | Rays | L2 Yrs | 23.7% | 11.0% | 9.9% | 12.4% | Season | 27.1% | 8.2% | 12.3% | 13.9% | Road | 21.5% | 11.7% | 12.5% | 11.6% | L14Days | 32.7% | 10.2% | 21.5% | |
| CC Sabathia | Yankees | L2 Yrs | 19.1% | 7.9% | 15.9% | 2.7% | Season | 17.4% | 6.2% | 13.0% | 3.4% | Home | 20.8% | 6.1% | 17.2% | 8.2% | L14Days | 13.0% | 15.2% | 27.3% | 12.1% |
| Charlie Morton | Astros | L2 Yrs | 27.7% | 8.3% | 14.0% | 6.0% | Season | 31.0% | 8.7% | 18.4% | 9.1% | Road | 25.6% | 8.4% | 5.7% | 10.5% | L14Days | 26.0% | 8.0% | 9.1% | 39.4% |
| Dan Straily | Marlins | L2 Yrs | 20.7% | 8.7% | 12.9% | 17.5% | Season | 17.0% | 15.2% | 17.2% | 38.6% | Road | 21.9% | 7.3% | 15.0% | 14.5% | L14Days | 22.0% | 12.0% | 8.3% | 33.3% |
| Daniel Gossett | Athletics | L2 Yrs | 16.8% | 7.4% | 18.8% | 19.1% | Season | 12.9% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 32.6% | Home | 16.7% | 6.3% | 16.7% | 14.9% | L14Days | 18.5% | 3.7% | 19.1% | |
| Danny Duffy | Royals | L2 Yrs | 22.5% | 6.9% | 12.1% | 18.7% | Season | 18.7% | 10.1% | 16.7% | 27.5% | Home | 21.2% | 7.6% | 10.4% | 19.7% | L14Days | 18.8% | 10.4% | 13.3% | 35.3% |
| Dylan Bundy | Orioles | L2 Yrs | 23.9% | 7.7% | 13.5% | 14.9% | Season | 29.0% | 7.5% | 17.1% | 17.4% | Home | 22.2% | 6.8% | 12.5% | 15.4% | L14Days | 39.3% | 5.4% | 21.1% | 20.0% |
| Felix Hernandez | Mariners | L2 Yrs | 19.4% | 8.7% | 17.7% | 15.7% | Season | 19.0% | 9.7% | 14.7% | 20.4% | Home | 21.8% | 9.2% | 17.3% | 10.7% | L14Days | 11.8% | 7.8% | 39.0% | |
| Jake Arrieta | Phillies | L2 Yrs | 22.2% | 8.8% | 12.3% | 7.4% | Season | 17.0% | 8.3% | 4.9% | 3.9% | Road | 21.1% | 8.4% | 16.1% | 10.4% | L14Days | 19.1% | 7.1% | 19.4% | |
| Jeff Samardzija | Giants | L2 Yrs | 21.5% | 6.0% | 13.5% | 11.7% | Season | 15.6% | 14.4% | 12.0% | 11.7% | Road | 24.0% | 5.2% | 17.1% | 14.3% | L14Days | 10.0% | 16.0% | 5.9% | 8.1% |
| Jeremy Hellickson | Nationals | L2 Yrs | 16.3% | 6.1% | 13.5% | 8.6% | Season | 21.8% | 4.2% | 10.7% | 11.4% | Road | 16.7% | 5.1% | 12.5% | 11.1% | L14Days | 23.8% | 4.8% | 50.0% | 40.0% |
| Jon Lester | Cubs | L2 Yrs | 23.7% | 7.6% | 13.5% | 8.5% | Season | 20.5% | 9.4% | 10.0% | 16.8% | Road | 22.1% | 9.0% | 15.5% | 11.5% | L14Days | 26.1% | 4.4% | 8.3% | 9.4% |
| Kenta Maeda | Dodgers | L2 Yrs | 26.4% | 6.7% | 13.5% | 10.3% | Season | 30.8% | 7.9% | 9.3% | 17.7% | Home | 28.3% | 6.3% | 10.0% | 7.6% | L14Days | 39.2% | 7.8% | -14.8% | |
| Kyle Freeland | Rockies | L2 Yrs | 17.0% | 9.0% | 11.9% | 6.4% | Season | 21.1% | 8.5% | 10.5% | 2.9% | Home | 18.6% | 9.4% | 10.5% | 1.8% | L14Days | 15.4% | 7.7% | 12.5% | 2.6% |
| Kyle Gibson | Twins | L2 Yrs | 18.3% | 8.8% | 15.7% | 17.9% | Season | 24.3% | 11.3% | 10.0% | 17.7% | Road | 20.9% | 10.1% | 12.9% | 18.9% | L14Days | 16.0% | 10.0% | 23.1% | -5.4% |
| Lucas Giolito | White Sox | L2 Yrs | 14.0% | 11.9% | 15.1% | 17.4% | Season | 11.5% | 15.8% | 8.6% | 16.2% | Road | 12.2% | 13.3% | 10.2% | 16.7% | L14Days | 7.5% | 12.5% | 13.3% | 24.1% |
| Luis Castillo | Reds | L2 Yrs | 25.2% | 8.9% | 18.2% | 11.3% | Season | 22.1% | 8.8% | 19.3% | 16.3% | Road | 24.0% | 8.7% | 15.6% | 8.6% | L14Days | 18.8% | 14.6% | 8.3% | |
| Marco Estrada | Blue Jays | L2 Yrs | 21.6% | 8.5% | 11.3% | 8.1% | Season | 17.3% | 7.2% | 12.4% | 13.9% | Road | 21.3% | 8.3% | 11.7% | 7.3% | L14Days | 14.3% | 4.1% | 9.5% | 5.0% |
| Michael Fulmer | Tigers | L2 Yrs | 18.3% | 6.4% | 9.5% | 12.4% | Season | 21.2% | 8.3% | 11.8% | 21.0% | Home | 16.3% | 5.7% | 8.9% | 20.7% | L14Days | 25.0% | 10.4% | 33.3% | |
| Michael Wacha | Cardinals | L2 Yrs | 21.2% | 7.7% | 11.3% | 10.5% | Season | 21.4% | 9.0% | 8.7% | 22.3% | Road | 21.4% | 9.1% | 15.1% | 11.9% | L14Days | 28.6% | 4.1% | 10.0% | 15.1% |
| Mike Clevinger | Indians | L2 Yrs | 24.5% | 11.2% | 10.2% | 14.6% | Season | 20.9% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 15.3% | Home | 24.1% | 9.1% | 15.5% | 14.2% | L14Days | 19.6% | 13.7% | 25.0% | 30.3% |
| Nick Kingham | Pirates | L2 Yrs | 30.4% | 2.9% | 13.3% | 21.7% | Season | 30.4% | 2.9% | 13.3% | 21.7% | Home | 30.4% | 2.2% | 22.6% | L14Days | 20.8% | 4.2% | 16.6% | ||
| Nick Tropeano | Angels | L2 Yrs | 21.7% | 10.2% | 18.1% | 27.9% | Season | 20.1% | 10.1% | 12.8% | 28.2% | Road | 24.3% | 8.1% | 10.0% | 30.6% | L14Days | 23.8% | 9.5% | 23.1% | 14.2% |
| Rick Porcello | Red Sox | L2 Yrs | 20.9% | 4.4% | 11.6% | 15.8% | Season | 23.2% | 4.6% | 7.8% | 5.1% | Home | 22.0% | 4.7% | 13.0% | 14.5% | L14Days | 21.3% | 6.7% | 17.6% | -5.6% |
| Steven Matz | Mets | L2 Yrs | 19.9% | 7.2% | 17.7% | 13.3% | Season | 21.4% | 10.4% | 20.9% | 22.5% | Road | 15.5% | 9.0% | 9.9% | 5.4% | L14Days | 11.6% | 9.3% | 16.7% | 24.3% |
| Tyson Ross | Padres | L2 Yrs | 20.4% | 12.2% | 11.9% | 18.7% | Season | 25.4% | 9.1% | 10.6% | 19.7% | Home | 14.9% | 12.3% | 14.6% | 21.2% | L14Days | 20.8% | 9.4% | 8.3% | 13.9% |
| Zach Davies | Brewers | L2 Yrs | 17.3% | 6.1% | 12.0% | 12.6% | Season | 16.4% | 8.5% | 13.2% | 31.4% | Home | 15.7% | 7.6% | 12.7% | 16.9% | L14Days | 10.0% | 10.0% | 37.5% | |
| Zack Godley | Diamondbacks | L2 Yrs | 22.9% | 8.8% | 16.4% | 13.0% | Season | 20.8% | 11.6% | 15.6% | 9.4% | Home | 25.3% | 7.8% | 16.0% | 15.9% | L14Days | 17.7% | 19.6% | 11.1% | 18.8% |
Peripherals (Opponent)
| OpTm | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mets | Road | 22.3% | 9.4% | 13.1% | 20.2% | RH | 20.6% | 8.9% | 12.5% | 16.1% | L7Days | 19.6% | 9.0% | 11.5% | 30.5% |
| Mariners | Home | 21.8% | 6.6% | 12.1% | 8.9% | RH | 20.0% | 7.2% | 13.4% | 17.2% | L7Days | 20.7% | 6.8% | 8.9% | 16.8% |
| Athletics | Home | 23.1% | 8.7% | 7.8% | 25.8% | LH | 23.8% | 6.7% | 9.7% | 24.6% | L7Days | 22.9% | 6.1% | 8.1% | 29.5% |
| Astros | Road | 21.1% | 8.9% | 11.3% | 21.4% | LH | 21.4% | 8.3% | 11.3% | 16.9% | L7Days | 20.2% | 7.5% | 17.7% | 25.6% |
| Yankees | Home | 22.2% | 12.7% | 16.6% | 19.0% | RH | 22.8% | 10.5% | 16.8% | 19.2% | L7Days | 22.3% | 7.3% | 17.4% | 10.6% |
| Padres | Home | 25.1% | 9.2% | 11.3% | 17.7% | RH | 26.6% | 7.9% | 9.8% | 14.4% | L7Days | 27.8% | 3.9% | 11.3% | 5.8% |
| Rays | Road | 22.0% | 8.1% | 11.7% | 15.1% | RH | 21.1% | 8.8% | 9.7% | 17.3% | L7Days | 20.7% | 10.7% | 6.0% | 13.8% |
| Twins | Road | 23.1% | 8.5% | 11.2% | 17.8% | LH | 25.1% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 11.7% | L7Days | 22.1% | 7.4% | 3.6% | 21.7% |
| Nationals | Road | 20.0% | 10.2% | 15.9% | 18.2% | RH | 20.1% | 10.5% | 15.7% | 13.8% | L7Days | 21.6% | 8.4% | 15.3% | 14.5% |
| Rangers | Road | 26.3% | 6.6% | 14.0% | 15.6% | RH | 25.8% | 8.4% | 13.7% | 19.8% | L7Days | 23.2% | 12.7% | 17.2% | 14.5% |
| Dodgers | Home | 23.0% | 8.6% | 11.2% | 10.4% | RH | 22.0% | 9.2% | 11.6% | 14.7% | L7Days | 18.7% | 8.9% | 13.8% | 13.0% |
| Rockies | Home | 24.4% | 9.3% | 18.2% | 10.8% | RH | 24.0% | 9.2% | 14.8% | 7.7% | L7Days | 23.1% | 9.3% | 17.5% | 19.2% |
| Orioles | Home | 20.2% | 8.0% | 13.9% | 12.4% | RH | 24.8% | 7.3% | 12.2% | 13.1% | L7Days | 21.5% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 13.9% |
| Pirates | Home | 18.0% | 9.5% | 8.1% | 5.7% | LH | 19.7% | 9.8% | 13.6% | 7.5% | L7Days | 19.9% | 6.5% | 8.7% | 7.9% |
| Phillies | Road | 26.3% | 10.0% | 10.4% | 8.8% | RH | 26.4% | 9.8% | 13.2% | 8.6% | L7Days | 24.2% | 7.9% | 8.8% | -1.4% |
| Giants | Road | 26.3% | 7.7% | 11.0% | 18.5% | LH | 24.3% | 9.2% | 14.3% | 19.8% | L7Days | 25.0% | 9.9% | 8.5% | 14.6% |
| Royals | Home | 18.4% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 23.5% | RH | 17.5% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 21.7% | L7Days | 17.8% | 7.1% | 12.9% | 22.6% |
| Indians | Home | 20.4% | 8.9% | 16.0% | 28.7% | RH | 23.7% | 8.5% | 15.4% | 22.4% | L7Days | 19.9% | 9.4% | 13.6% | 19.9% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 25.8% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 21.3% | RH | 26.0% | 9.8% | 10.0% | 15.2% | L7Days | 23.6% | 9.9% | 13.3% | 27.6% |
| Red Sox | Home | 17.9% | 8.8% | 13.6% | 17.1% | RH | 18.4% | 8.4% | 15.1% | 19.9% | L7Days | 20.9% | 11.4% | 15.4% | 17.1% |
| Angels | Road | 18.0% | 9.0% | 12.5% | 16.1% | RH | 20.1% | 8.8% | 13.1% | 19.3% | L7Days | 19.0% | 13.9% | 9.9% | 18.2% |
| Brewers | Home | 26.1% | 9.7% | 15.3% | 23.0% | RH | 24.6% | 8.4% | 16.5% | 17.4% | L7Days | 21.0% | 11.8% | 12.9% | 32.1% |
| White Sox | Road | 23.4% | 7.2% | 16.2% | 20.3% | RH | 23.6% | 7.3% | 12.9% | 12.6% | L7Days | 27.3% | 6.8% | 18.8% | 15.0% |
| Cubs | Road | 21.5% | 10.0% | 11.0% | 18.1% | RH | 20.3% | 9.9% | 11.6% | 13.5% | L7Days | 19.3% | 11.4% | 10.2% | 17.9% |
| Tigers | Home | 18.1% | 7.3% | 9.6% | 24.9% | RH | 20.7% | 6.7% | 8.3% | 20.7% | L7Days | 16.7% | 7.4% | 9.4% | 13.6% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 24.5% | 10.1% | 13.6% | 18.3% | RH | 24.8% | 9.9% | 14.1% | 18.0% | L7Days | 28.3% | 8.1% | 12.2% | 18.1% |
| Braves | Home | 19.3% | 9.4% | 10.9% | 23.3% | LH | 17.8% | 8.7% | 16.8% | 20.1% | L7Days | 25.6% | 9.2% | 12.5% | 13.0% |
| Marlins | Road | 24.8% | 8.0% | 10.4% | 9.4% | RH | 23.9% | 7.1% | 9.9% | 11.4% | L7Days | 23.5% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 20.0% |
| Cardinals | Road | 25.0% | 8.9% | 16.4% | 16.6% | RH | 23.3% | 8.4% | 13.3% | 18.6% | L7Days | 26.1% | 4.1% | 8.2% | 12.7% |
| Reds | Road | 18.9% | 7.9% | 9.4% | 15.4% | RH | 21.2% | 8.6% | 10.4% | 16.4% | L7Days | 18.6% | 7.5% | 10.1% | 15.9% |
K/SwStr Chart (2018 LG AVG – 21.8 K% – 10.1 SwStr% – 2.16 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anibal Sanchez | Braves | 24.1% | 11.2% | 2.15 | |||
| Austin Bibens-Dirkx | Rangers | 20.7% | 15.6% | 1.33 | 20.7% | 15.6% | 1.33 |
| Blake Snell | Rays | 27.1% | 12.6% | 2.15 | 23.7% | 11.1% | 2.14 |
| CC Sabathia | Yankees | 17.4% | 10.1% | 1.72 | 19.1% | 10.2% | 1.87 |
| Charlie Morton | Astros | 31.0% | 12.9% | 2.40 | 32.5% | 11.7% | 2.78 |
| Dan Straily | Marlins | 17.0% | 10.1% | 1.68 | 17.0% | 10.1% | 1.68 |
| Daniel Gossett | Athletics | 12.9% | 7.5% | 1.72 | 18.5% | 7.7% | 2.40 |
| Danny Duffy | Royals | 18.7% | 9.4% | 1.99 | 17.6% | 10.5% | 1.68 |
| Dylan Bundy | Orioles | 29.0% | 15.1% | 1.92 | 29.7% | 14.2% | 2.09 |
| Felix Hernandez | Mariners | 19.0% | 7.4% | 2.57 | 19.4% | 7.5% | 2.59 |
| Jake Arrieta | Phillies | 17.0% | 6.6% | 2.58 | 15.5% | 6.1% | 2.54 |
| Jeff Samardzija | Giants | 15.6% | 8.2% | 1.90 | 15.4% | 8.1% | 1.90 |
| Jeremy Hellickson | Nationals | 21.8% | 9.7% | 2.25 | 23.0% | 9.9% | 2.32 |
| Jon Lester | Cubs | 20.5% | 10.1% | 2.03 | 21.9% | 10.5% | 2.09 |
| Kenta Maeda | Dodgers | 30.8% | 14.4% | 2.14 | 28.7% | 14.3% | 2.01 |
| Kyle Freeland | Rockies | 21.1% | 9.4% | 2.24 | 20.5% | 10.2% | 2.01 |
| Kyle Gibson | Twins | 24.3% | 11.9% | 2.04 | 22.6% | 10.7% | 2.11 |
| Lucas Giolito | White Sox | 11.5% | 8.4% | 1.37 | 14.4% | 9.5% | 1.52 |
| Luis Castillo | Reds | 22.1% | 14.8% | 1.49 | 26.3% | 16.3% | 1.61 |
| Marco Estrada | Blue Jays | 17.3% | 9.5% | 1.82 | 15.0% | 8.1% | 1.85 |
| Michael Fulmer | Tigers | 21.2% | 11.6% | 1.83 | 24.4% | 11.8% | 2.07 |
| Michael Wacha | Cardinals | 21.4% | 10.2% | 2.10 | 23.1% | 10.5% | 2.20 |
| Mike Clevinger | Indians | 20.9% | 11.1% | 1.88 | 23.9% | 11.9% | 2.01 |
| Nick Kingham | Pirates | 30.4% | 11.1% | 2.74 | 30.4% | 11.1% | 2.74 |
| Nick Tropeano | Angels | 20.1% | 11.5% | 1.75 | 19.3% | 12.1% | 1.60 |
| Rick Porcello | Red Sox | 23.2% | 9.9% | 2.34 | 21.7% | 10.3% | 2.11 |
| Steven Matz | Mets | 21.4% | 7.3% | 2.93 | 14.9% | 7.3% | 2.04 |
| Tyson Ross | Padres | 25.4% | 10.5% | 2.42 | 25.6% | 11.4% | 2.25 |
| Zach Davies | Brewers | 16.4% | 8.8% | 1.86 | 11.1% | 8.0% | 1.39 |
| Zack Godley | Diamondbacks | 20.8% | 10.5% | 1.98 | 18.9% | 9.0% | 2.10 |
There are number of guys we should feel confident will eventually start striking out more batters, maybe none more than Dan Straily, who’s still below 30 years of age and has a history of doing so.
Luis Castillo may not have the long history, but the SwStr% is just so over-powering.
Check out the SwStr% on Steven Matz, both columns. Hasn’t changed. Look at the K%.
ERA Estimators Chart (2018 LG AVG – 4.22 ERA – 4.20 SIERA – 4.17 xFIP – 4.29 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | Season DRA | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anibal Sanchez | Braves | 1.29 | 4.00 | 2.71 | 1.29 | 2.59 | 3.54 | 2.25 | 3.02 | 1.73 | |||||||
| Austin Bibens-Dirkx | Rangers | 5.68 | 3.45 | -2.23 | 5.68 | -2.50 | 2.16 | -3.52 | 2.65 | -3.03 | 5.68 | 3.46 | -2.22 | 3.18 | -2.50 | 2.16 | -3.52 |
| Blake Snell | Rays | 2.78 | 3.58 | 0.80 | 2.78 | 0.79 | 3.56 | 0.78 | 3.40 | 0.62 | 3.10 | 3.94 | 0.84 | 3.66 | 0.56 | 4.45 | 1.35 |
| CC Sabathia | Yankees | 3.55 | 4.39 | 0.84 | 3.55 | 0.90 | 4.53 | 0.98 | 4.43 | 0.88 | 4.78 | 4.29 | -0.49 | 4.19 | -0.59 | 4.32 | -0.46 |
| Charlie Morton | Astros | 2.04 | 3.04 | 1.00 | 2.04 | 0.80 | 3.32 | 1.28 | 1.99 | -0.05 | 2.20 | 2.89 | 0.69 | 2.66 | 0.46 | 2.86 | 0.66 |
| Dan Straily | Marlins | 3.12 | 5.79 | 2.67 | 3.12 | 2.41 | 6.22 | 3.10 | 5.07 | 1.95 | 3.12 | 5.79 | 2.67 | 5.53 | 2.41 | 6.22 | 3.10 |
| Daniel Gossett | Athletics | 6.28 | 4.98 | -1.30 | 6.28 | -1.21 | 3.95 | -2.33 | 5.30 | -0.98 | 1.29 | 3.97 | 2.68 | 3.95 | 2.66 | 2.11 | 0.82 |
| Danny Duffy | Royals | 6.14 | 4.89 | -1.25 | 6.14 | -0.99 | 5.94 | -0.20 | 7.78 | 1.64 | 7.00 | 5.11 | -1.89 | 5.55 | -1.45 | 7.37 | 0.37 |
| Dylan Bundy | Orioles | 4.45 | 3.38 | -1.07 | 4.45 | -0.58 | 4.66 | 0.21 | 3.39 | -1.06 | 6.49 | 3.59 | -2.90 | 4.25 | -2.24 | 7.29 | 0.80 |
| Felix Hernandez | Mariners | 5.58 | 4.67 | -0.91 | 5.58 | -0.83 | 5.08 | -0.50 | 5.54 | -0.04 | 6.28 | 4.75 | -1.53 | 4.84 | -1.44 | 4.85 | -1.43 |
| Jake Arrieta | Phillies | 2.45 | 4.32 | 1.87 | 2.45 | 1.58 | 3.25 | 0.80 | 4.24 | 1.79 | 3.04 | 4.62 | 1.58 | 4.24 | 1.20 | 3.33 | 0.29 |
| Jeff Samardzija | Giants | 6.23 | 5.89 | -0.34 | 6.23 | -0.16 | 5.99 | -0.24 | 8.61 | 2.38 | 6.23 | 5.83 | -0.40 | 6.05 | -0.18 | 6.19 | -0.04 |
| Jeremy Hellickson | Nationals | 2.13 | 3.47 | 1.34 | 2.13 | 1.01 | 2.98 | 0.85 | 2.48 | 0.35 | 1.29 | 3.18 | 1.89 | 2.88 | 1.59 | 3.18 | 1.89 |
| Jon Lester | Cubs | 2.37 | 4.48 | 2.11 | 2.37 | 2.07 | 4.11 | 1.74 | 3.69 | 1.32 | 1.52 | 4.42 | 2.90 | 4.25 | 2.73 | 3.55 | 2.03 |
| Kenta Maeda | Dodgers | 3.38 | 3.12 | -0.26 | 3.38 | -0.44 | 2.60 | -0.78 | 1.68 | -1.70 | 3.56 | 3.50 | -0.06 | 3.33 | -0.23 | 3.18 | -0.38 |
| Kyle Freeland | Rockies | 3.28 | 4.16 | 0.88 | 3.28 | 0.72 | 3.77 | 0.49 | 3.31 | 0.03 | 2.43 | 3.99 | 1.56 | 3.74 | 1.31 | 2.87 | 0.44 |
| Kyle Gibson | Twins | 4.02 | 4.20 | 0.18 | 4.02 | 0.01 | 3.75 | -0.27 | 4.38 | 0.36 | 4.66 | 4.27 | -0.39 | 4.07 | -0.59 | 4.42 | -0.24 |
| Lucas Giolito | White Sox | 7.53 | 6.60 | -0.93 | 7.53 | -0.34 | 6.48 | -1.05 | 10.54 | 3.01 | 7.33 | 5.92 | -1.41 | 6.57 | -0.76 | 6.80 | -0.53 |
| Luis Castillo | Reds | 5.34 | 4.09 | -1.25 | 5.34 | -1.39 | 4.84 | -0.50 | 4.63 | -0.71 | 2.83 | 3.53 | 0.70 | 3.52 | 0.69 | 4.16 | 1.33 |
| Marco Estrada | Blue Jays | 5.40 | 5.05 | -0.35 | 5.40 | -0.01 | 5.38 | -0.02 | 7.66 | 2.26 | 4.82 | 5.37 | 0.55 | 5.56 | 0.74 | 5.00 | 0.18 |
| Michael Fulmer | Tigers | 4.08 | 4.12 | 0.04 | 4.08 | -0.06 | 3.95 | -0.13 | 4.61 | 0.53 | 5.46 | 4.13 | -1.33 | 4.14 | -1.32 | 4.04 | -1.42 |
| Michael Wacha | Cardinals | 2.88 | 4.23 | 1.35 | 2.88 | 0.94 | 3.43 | 0.55 | 3.52 | 0.64 | 2.17 | 3.92 | 1.75 | 3.63 | 1.46 | 3.08 | 0.91 |
| Mike Clevinger | Indians | 3.32 | 4.14 | 0.82 | 3.32 | 0.61 | 3.26 | -0.06 | 3.93 | 0.61 | 4.05 | 3.86 | -0.19 | 3.52 | -0.53 | 3.53 | -0.52 |
| Nick Kingham | Pirates | 3.44 | 2.60 | -0.84 | 3.44 | -0.97 | 2.56 | -0.88 | 2.01 | -1.43 | 3.44 | 2.61 | -0.83 | 2.47 | -0.97 | 2.56 | -0.88 |
| Nick Tropeano | Angels | 3.86 | 4.65 | 0.79 | 3.86 | 0.83 | 4.75 | 0.89 | 4.02 | 0.16 | 3.22 | 4.81 | 1.59 | 4.82 | 1.60 | 4.54 | 1.32 |
| Rick Porcello | Red Sox | 3.74 | 3.44 | -0.30 | 3.74 | -0.27 | 2.90 | -0.84 | 3.34 | -0.40 | 5.45 | 3.78 | -1.67 | 3.79 | -1.66 | 4.03 | -1.42 |
| Steven Matz | Mets | 3.80 | 4.41 | 0.61 | 3.80 | 0.73 | 5.64 | 1.84 | 5.25 | 1.45 | 2.57 | 5.21 | 2.64 | 5.29 | 2.72 | 5.92 | 3.35 |
| Tyson Ross | Padres | 3.13 | 3.77 | 0.64 | 3.13 | 0.41 | 3.36 | 0.23 | 3.87 | 0.74 | 2.93 | 3.92 | 0.99 | 3.79 | 0.86 | 3.70 | 0.77 |
| Zach Davies | Brewers | 4.74 | 4.74 | 0.00 | 4.74 | -0.10 | 4.74 | 0.00 | 5.62 | 0.88 | 5.59 | 5.37 | -0.22 | 5.13 | -0.46 | 3.63 | -1.96 |
| Zack Godley | Diamondbacks | 4.53 | 4.51 | -0.02 | 4.53 | -0.42 | 4.44 | -0.09 | 3.67 | -0.86 | 5.27 | 5.24 | -0.03 | 4.92 | -0.35 | 5.71 | 0.44 |
Blake Snell has a .236 BABIP and 83.9 LOB% that don’t seem sustainable. There’s nothing all that special in his batted ball profile, though he does not allow a lot of hard contact.
Charlie Morton has a .235 BABIP and 90.2 LOB%. He also has an 18.4 HR/FB, which doesn’t really mean much due to the high amount of strikeouts and ground balls.
Dan Straily has a .200 BABIP and 90 LOB%. How the hell this is happening considering that he’s been the worst contact manager on the board in his five starts is the greater question.
Jake Arrieta has a .263 BABIP and 4.9 HR/FB. The latter does not seem sustainable. Let’s explore the former below.
Jeremy Hellickson has a .245 BABIP and 83.9 LOB%, which means regression, but his estimators are pretty darned good themselves.
Jon Lester has a .245 BABIP and 83.9 LOB%. The former is all defense, as you can see below, so no further detail is necessary. The strand rate is simply unsustainable, exactly 10 points above his career rate.
Luis Castillo has a 19.3 HR/FB, which has remained somewhat consistent in both months.
BABIP & Statcast Chart (2018 LG AVG – .287 BABIP – 43.1 GB% – 21.1 LD% – 10.1 IFFB% – 86.1 Z-Contact% – 36.5 Z-O-Swing%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | GB% | LD% | IFFB% | Z-contact% | Z-O-Swing% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anibal Sanchez | Braves | 0.292 | 0.278 | -0.014 | 43.2% | 27.0% | 9.1% | 75.4% | 28.8% |
| Austin Bibens-Dirkx | Rangers | 0.300 | 0.381 | 0.081 | 45.0% | 35.0% | 0.0% | 90.5% | 28.0% |
| Blake Snell | Rays | 0.275 | 0.236 | -0.039 | 38.7% | 21.5% | 9.2% | 83.5% | 32.6% |
| CC Sabathia | Yankees | 0.280 | 0.250 | -0.030 | 44.2% | 19.0% | 16.7% | 88.2% | 32.9% |
| Charlie Morton | Astros | 0.263 | 0.235 | -0.028 | 54.6% | 18.4% | 13.2% | 79.7% | 32.7% |
| Dan Straily | Marlins | 0.290 | 0.200 | -0.090 | 31.1% | 29.7% | 10.3% | 87.6% | 44.1% |
| Daniel Gossett | Athletics | 0.280 | 0.292 | 0.012 | 44.9% | 18.4% | 0.0% | 92.7% | 40.0% |
| Danny Duffy | Royals | 0.309 | 0.303 | -0.006 | 33.2% | 21.9% | 9.5% | 88.7% | 37.4% |
| Dylan Bundy | Orioles | 0.326 | 0.289 | -0.037 | 34.5% | 15.8% | 9.8% | 81.1% | 31.8% |
| Felix Hernandez | Mariners | 0.287 | 0.277 | -0.010 | 40.8% | 22.3% | 8.8% | 92.8% | 33.6% |
| Jake Arrieta | Phillies | 0.295 | 0.263 | -0.032 | 56.3% | 16.6% | 12.2% | 88.8% | 28.9% |
| Jeff Samardzija | Giants | 0.299 | 0.267 | -0.032 | 33.6% | 19.6% | 12.0% | 86.8% | 38.6% |
| Jeremy Hellickson | Nationals | 0.277 | 0.245 | -0.032 | 49.0% | 23.5% | 17.9% | 83.6% | 33.0% |
| Jon Lester | Cubs | 0.266 | 0.258 | -0.008 | 37.4% | 23.9% | 6.7% | 83.7% | 40.4% |
| Kenta Maeda | Dodgers | 0.292 | 0.333 | 0.041 | 39.8% | 26.6% | 2.3% | 81.3% | 33.8% |
| Kyle Freeland | Rockies | 0.296 | 0.263 | -0.033 | 48.8% | 17.3% | 10.5% | 87.1% | 34.1% |
| Kyle Gibson | Twins | 0.299 | 0.279 | -0.020 | 46.7% | 20.0% | 18.0% | 88.2% | 36.2% |
| Lucas Giolito | White Sox | 0.294 | 0.266 | -0.028 | 40.3% | 15.7% | 14.3% | 87.5% | 44.1% |
| Luis Castillo | Reds | 0.301 | 0.311 | 0.010 | 47.7% | 19.2% | 8.8% | 77.4% | 33.7% |
| Marco Estrada | Blue Jays | 0.309 | 0.299 | -0.010 | 26.3% | 19.6% | 16.5% | 84.8% | 44.5% |
| Michael Fulmer | Tigers | 0.286 | 0.288 | 0.002 | 47.2% | 21.1% | 7.8% | 84.8% | 33.0% |
| Michael Wacha | Cardinals | 0.286 | 0.278 | -0.008 | 40.3% | 30.8% | 10.9% | 83.3% | 40.8% |
| Mike Clevinger | Indians | 0.284 | 0.302 | 0.018 | 47.2% | 20.0% | 6.8% | 86.2% | 34.8% |
| Nick Kingham | Pirates | 0.298 | 0.227 | -0.071 | 43.5% | 23.9% | 6.7% | 84.9% | 39.0% |
| Nick Tropeano | Angels | 0.293 | 0.260 | -0.033 | 35.5% | 21.8% | 8.5% | 82.9% | 40.6% |
| Rick Porcello | Red Sox | 0.296 | 0.306 | 0.010 | 49.2% | 18.3% | 9.4% | 87.4% | 34.3% |
| Steven Matz | Mets | 0.309 | 0.243 | -0.066 | 49.6% | 13.0% | 2.3% | 86.3% | 42.2% |
| Tyson Ross | Padres | 0.309 | 0.268 | -0.041 | 44.1% | 26.7% | 2.1% | 88.1% | 29.0% |
| Zach Davies | Brewers | 0.266 | 0.276 | 0.010 | 44.9% | 22.9% | 2.6% | 88.6% | 39.0% |
| Zack Godley | Diamondbacks | 0.268 | 0.315 | 0.047 | 50.3% | 22.4% | 17.8% | 92.0% | 30.8% |
Charlie Morton is only 28 points below his defense with an exceptional profile. This may be sustainable as far as the team’s defensive performance is.
Dan Straily …no.
Dylan Bundy has a problem not with BABIP regression, but with his defense.
Jake Arrieta allows very few barreled balls (3.3% below is best on the board). He generates lots of weak ground balls, inducing swings at pitches that aren’t strikes versus that are at a great rate. This has led to all sorts of favorable contact this year and for the past few. He hasn’t had a BABIP above .280 since leaving Baltimore. The thing to remember though is that this defense is not the Cubs.
Jeremy Hellickson gets some popups, but they don’t exactly cancel out the line drive rate as just a subset of fly balls. That said, the Z-Contact% is his best since 2011 and the popups may be more sustainable than the line drive rate, which is two points above his career rate.
Kenta Maeda has a career .288 BABIP with a line drive rate almost five points lower than this season. He continues to be a strong contact manager by exit velocities, which makes the line drive rate and BABIP look further unsustainable.
Tyson Ross has a nice Z-O-Swing%, but a high line drive rate and a career .307 BABIP. He’s not doing anything that would suggest much of a change.
StatCast Chart
All stats from BaseballSavant.com.
| Player | Team | xwOBA | wOBA-xwOBA | xwOBA H/A | wOBA-xwOBA H/A | xwOBA L30 Days | wOBA-xwOBA L30 Days | Effective Velocity | Exit Velocity | Barrels BBE | 95+ MPH ExV | BBE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anibal Sanchez | Braves | 0.295 | -0.019 | 0.301 | 0.028 | 0.200 | 83.6 | 5.4 | 24.300 | 37 | ||
| Austin Bibens-Dirkx | Rangers | 0.349 | -0.035 | 0.356 | -0.026 | 0.349 | -0.035 | -1.200 | ||||
| Blake Snell | Rays | 0.310 | -0.042 | 0.329 | -0.002 | 0.342 | -0.053 | 0.200 | 86.1 | 6.7 | 24.200 | 165 |
| CC Sabathia | Yankees | 0.302 | -0.004 | 0.309 | -0.005 | 0.297 | 0.020 | 0.600 | 84.2 | 6.8 | 28.600 | 147 |
| Charlie Morton | Astros | 0.255 | -0.004 | 0.292 | 0.002 | 0.258 | -0.026 | -0.900 | 86.4 | 3.5 | 28.000 | 143 |
| Dan Straily | Marlins | 0.424 | -0.099 | 0.331 | -0.004 | 0.424 | -0.099 | -0.300 | 89.8 | 10.7 | 44.000 | 75 |
| Daniel Gossett | Athletics | 0.351 | -0.036 | 0.355 | 0.003 | 0.255 | -0.086 | -0.200 | 91 | 6.1 | 49.000 | 49 |
| Danny Duffy | Royals | 0.408 | -0.035 | 0.351 | -0.026 | 0.438 | -0.021 | 0.400 | 89.5 | 10.6 | 41.800 | 189 |
| Dylan Bundy | Orioles | 0.344 | -0.012 | 0.320 | -0.009 | 0.393 | -0.030 | -1.400 | 89.7 | 13.3 | 39.200 | 166 |
| Felix Hernandez | Mariners | 0.378 | -0.042 | 0.347 | -0.036 | 0.372 | -0.027 | -0.300 | 89.2 | 9.1 | 40.900 | 186 |
| Jake Arrieta | Phillies | 0.294 | -0.026 | 0.330 | -0.003 | 0.350 | -0.036 | -0.800 | 86.3 | 3.3 | 30.100 | 153 |
| Jeff Samardzija | Giants | 0.380 | -0.039 | 0.314 | 0.010 | 0.397 | -0.057 | -0.600 | 85.5 | 10.8 | 29.700 | 111 |
| Jeremy Hellickson | Nationals | 0.316 | -0.066 | 0.325 | -0.019 | 0.334 | -0.106 | -1.300 | 87.5 | 8.6 | 32.400 | 105 |
| Jon Lester | Cubs | 0.344 | -0.053 | 0.325 | -0.005 | 0.312 | -0.036 | -0.300 | 87.8 | 8.1 | 36.000 | 161 |
| Kenta Maeda | Dodgers | 0.283 | 0.011 | 0.273 | -0.002 | 0.289 | -0.010 | -0.800 | 86.7 | 5.4 | 31.500 | 130 |
| Kyle Freeland | Rockies | 0.301 | -0.018 | 0.284 | 0.028 | 0.287 | -0.040 | 0.500 | 85.2 | 5.2 | 26.600 | 173 |
| Kyle Gibson | Twins | 0.335 | -0.039 | 0.329 | -0.026 | 0.355 | -0.029 | 0.600 | 88.6 | 6.6 | 40.100 | 152 |
| Lucas Giolito | White Sox | 0.397 | -0.028 | 0.376 | -0.063 | 0.417 | -0.037 | -0.100 | 89.8 | 6.9 | 38.100 | 160 |
| Luis Castillo | Reds | 0.343 | -0.001 | 0.311 | 0.001 | 0.288 | 0.014 | -1.400 | 88.5 | 9.9 | 39.500 | 172 |
| Marco Estrada | Blue Jays | 0.363 | 0.006 | 0.312 | 0.027 | 0.351 | 0.016 | -1.800 | 88 | 12.3 | 37.400 | 179 |
| Michael Fulmer | Tigers | 0.345 | -0.035 | 0.337 | -0.063 | 0.356 | -0.056 | 0.100 | 87.8 | 7.8 | 35.500 | 166 |
| Michael Wacha | Cardinals | 0.358 | -0.081 | 0.325 | 0.002 | 0.339 | -0.083 | 0.500 | 87.7 | 8.6 | 37.700 | 162 |
| Mike Clevinger | Indians | 0.324 | -0.029 | 0.356 | -0.025 | 0.328 | -0.012 | 0.300 | 86.8 | 6.6 | 31.700 | 183 |
| Nick Kingham | Pirates | 0.289 | -0.059 | 0.255 | -0.102 | 0.289 | -0.059 | -1.500 | 90.7 | 6.5 | 47.800 | 46 |
| Nick Tropeano | Angels | 0.353 | -0.040 | 0.324 | -0.043 | 0.312 | -0.033 | -1.800 | 89.1 | 7.3 | 37.300 | 110 |
| Rick Porcello | Red Sox | 0.285 | -0.003 | 0.323 | 0.020 | 0.332 | 0.015 | -0.600 | 87.9 | 5.1 | 30.800 | 198 |
| Steven Matz | Mets | 0.342 | -0.009 | 0.330 | -0.014 | 0.330 | -0.001 | 0.000 | 87.2 | 9.2 | 38.300 | 120 |
| Tyson Ross | Padres | 0.322 | -0.052 | 0.366 | -0.033 | 0.360 | -0.086 | -1.300 | 88 | 6.2 | 41.400 | 162 |
| Zach Davies | Brewers | 0.372 | -0.043 | 0.354 | -0.003 | 0.348 | -0.002 | -0.800 | 89.3 | 6.6 | 43.800 | 121 |
| Zack Godley | Diamondbacks | 0.369 | -0.036 | 0.310 | -0.031 | 0.396 | -0.032 | -1.200 | 88.2 | 9.5 | 37.900 | 169 |
Charlie Morton and his 18.2 HR/FB…we’ve mentioned the amount of strikeouts and ground balls (54.6%). Excluding the strikeouts and counting batted balls only, he’s allowed the lowest rate of barrels, which makes that home run rate feel even flukier.
Dan Straily has been lit the hell up. How does he have a .200 BABIP and 90% strand rate?
Dylan Bundy has allowed the highest rate of barrels per batted ball on the board.
I made this point a week or two ago and wasn’t sure what it meant. I’m still not sure what the correlation or implications are, but both guys beyond a negative 1.5 effective velocity are above a .350 xwOBA. Is there a connection? Well, the highest xwOBAs don’t have much of a gap at all. Maybe there’s more to be explored concerning effective velocity and sequencing or location, which one can probably write thousands of additional words on.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top few. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
This is a tough board to figure out. I’ve been bouncing a few upper tier guys around for most of the morning, so consider the order below fluid. I’m not even going to give them overall rankings today because there are a number of wide outcome range guys.
Value Tier One
Blake Snell is getting himself deep into games with consistently strong performances, even if strikeouts are down a bit in May. He’s only the third or fourth highest priced arm on either site in a pretty advantageous spot with some upside in Oakland.
Value Tier Two
Kenta Maeda is the second highest cost pitcher tonight and would be a top tier play if I were more confident of the work load. Ironic, because his recent workloads have been encouraging, but a career high 111 pitches could mean more caution most immediately, although that’s just a guess. Regardless, he’s in a great spot with some great numbers that would far exceed the cost were workload not a consideration.
Value Tier Three
Luis Castillo is allowing a lot of hard contact. The percentages on that haven’t changed, but what has changed is the amount of contact he’s actually allowing with a K-BB% more than doubling from the first month of the season. He has tremendous upside (but some risk) in a fantastic spot at a reasonable cost. One extra concern is that he’s gone past six innings or 25 batters just once this season, though he’s thrown 100+ pitches four times.
Tyson Ross isn’t cheap, but six innings with a 25 K% would seem like the floor in a great matchup even if the Marlins have been pesky in some spots we wouldn’t have expected them to be. The overall results for this offense have been extremely poor.
Jake Arrieta showed us he can still miss bats with his slider type pitch if he wants to. Will he choose to do that? Who knows, but at least we know he still has that upside in him. As a fallback, he’s pitched into the seventh inning in five of nine starts and generates exceptional contact if all else fails.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Jeremy Hellickson has significant workload concerns, but is in a decent spot and has been pitching well. He costs $1.7K less on FanDuel, which is usually not seen below the highest price range. It’s much more difficult to pay $8.2K for two times through the order.
Charlie Morton is in a really bad spot tonight and I’m a bit concerned that the fairy tale concerning Cy Young contention may be coming to an end, which may call into question some pricing concerns, as he’s easily the most expensive arm on the board. I think that may keep his ownership down and in no way am I calling him a fluke, but he just may be more of a two or three rather than the team’s fourth of fifth Ace. He can pop off these monster performances, but they haven’t rolling off consistently aside from the run prevention (more than two runs just twice). I have him here because I’d look like an idiot if he copied his most recent performance against them and the Houston curveballs aren’t your average random curveballs, but I may be personally fading him considering the information available in accordance with cost (unless ownership, umpire or lineup surprises say differently).
Rick Porcello is not pitching well. He’s got a decent shot at accumulating a few strikeouts though, and I’m now going to say something I’ve probably never said in any pitching article. He might have the best shot at getting a Win today and that’s probably worth something. I don’t know if it’s worth $10K on DraftKings, but he’s $1.2K less on FanDuel, where I might have some interest.
Dylan Bundy is a high cost arm with a massive home run problem against a dangerous offense in a dangerous park. His 15.1 SwStr% is also highest on the board. The potential range of outcomes here is enormous.
Nick Kingham is probably not a lot of things some of his numbers say after three starts because those numbers are all over the place. He probably does have some upside though. The slider looks good and it’s a pitch the Cubs have trouble with (-8.2 wSL is a bottom 10 mark). The cost is reasonable considering 98 pitches in two of his three starts.
Jon Lester is a league average pitcher at this point, most likely, in a near average spot at an average cost. Perhaps the top defense in baseball makes the difference? He’s usable if you find himself with that much left for your SP2 spot, but not someone I’m building a lineup around.
Dan Straily presents a number of red flags. You could even call them burning flags, but he does have some upside in his strikeout rate and one of the top conceivable matchups on the board from both a run prevention and strikeout standpoint.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.