Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Saturday, April 22nd
Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | Team | Opp | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Arrieta | CHC | CIN | 216 | 3.08 | 3.87 | 1.07 | 48.39% | 24.3% | 9.3% | 0.79 | 51.9% |
| Matt Boyd | DET | MIN | 111.2 | 4.43 | 4.45 | 1.32 | 27.78% | 19.6% | 7.8% | 1.45 | 38.4% |
| Ariel Miranda | SEA | OAK | 75.2 | 3.69 | 4.55 | 1.14 | 40.00% | 19.0% | 7.5% | 1.78 | 34.4% |
| Gio Gonzalez | WAS | NYM | 197.2 | 4.23 | 3.95 | 1.32 | 40.63% | 22.0% | 7.4% | 0.96 | 46.9% |
| Michael Pineda | NYY | PIT | 194 | 4.69 | 3.27 | 1.31 | 28.13% | 27.9% | 6.5% | 1.39 | 46.1% |
| Charlie Morton | HOU | TBR | 33.1 | 3.51 | 3.86 | 1.38 | 50.00% | 22.2% | 9.7% | 0.54 | 54.8% |
| Jaime Garcia | ATL | PHI | 189 | 4.67 | 4.08 | 1.38 | 30.00% | 19.3% | 7.8% | 1.43 | 54.5% |
| Steven Wright | BOS | BAL | 170.2 | 3.74 | 4.56 | 1.31 | 50.00% | 18.8% | 8.4% | 0.90 | 43.1% |
| Lance Lynn | STL | MIL | 17.1 | 3.12 | 4.34 | 1.1 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 1.56 | 43.4% | |
| Carlos Carrasco | CLE | CHW | 165.2 | 3.21 | 3.43 | 1.12 | 44.00% | 25.2% | 6.0% | 1.30 | 47.8% |
| Ian Kennedy | KCR | TEX | 214.2 | 3.56 | 4.25 | 1.21 | 42.42% | 22.7% | 8.4% | 1.43 | 33.6% |
| Kenta Maeda | LAD | ARI | 189.2 | 3.75 | 3.69 | 1.15 | 43.75% | 24.9% | 7.0% | 1.09 | 42.9% |
| Matt Moore | SFG | COL | 217.1 | 4.1 | 4.39 | 1.3 | 45.45% | 20.7% | 8.3% | 1.12 | 39.1% |
| Dan Straily | MIA | SDP | 205 | 3.82 | 4.72 | 1.2 | 45.16% | 20.2% | 9.7% | 1.45 | 32.6% |
| Casey Lawrence | TOR | LAA | 2 | 13.5 | 9.53 | 4 | 14.3% | 35.7% | 0.00 | 66.7% | |
| Cody Reed | CIN | CHC | 55.2 | 6.31 | 4.14 | 1.62 | 20.00% | 20.0% | 9.0% | 1.94 | 53.8% |
| Adalberto Mejia | MIN | DET | 9 | 5 | 6.37 | 1.89 | 9.3% | 14.0% | 0.00 | 37.5% | |
| Jharel Cotton | OAK | SEA | 46 | 3.33 | 4.32 | 1.04 | 60.00% | 19.6% | 7.1% | 0.78 | 35.8% |
| Jacob deGrom | NYM | WAS | 167 | 2.91 | 3.52 | 1.16 | 54.17% | 24.4% | 5.9% | 0.92 | 47.1% |
| Jameson Taillon | PIT | NYY | 124 | 2.98 | 3.61 | 1.12 | 50.00% | 20.3% | 4.8% | 1.02 | 52.9% |
| Blake Snell | TBR | HOU | 105.1 | 3.42 | 4.66 | 1.58 | 26.32% | 23.0% | 12.9% | 0.51 | 37.5% |
| Jerad Eickhoff | PHI | ATL | 217 | 3.57 | 4.03 | 1.16 | 42.42% | 20.8% | 5.4% | 1.37 | 40.4% |
| Jayson Aquino | BAL | BOS | 2.1 | 0 | 2.32 | 0.43 | 37.5% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 0.0% | |
| Chase Anderson | MIL | STL | 169.2 | 4.08 | 4.58 | 1.33 | 16.67% | 19.0% | 8.1% | 1.54 | 36.5% |
| James Shields | CHW | CLE | 198.1 | 5.49 | 5.09 | 1.56 | 45.45% | 17.0% | 10.3% | 1.95 | 39.6% |
| A.J. Griffin | TEX | KCR | 134.1 | 4.96 | 4.5 | 1.3 | 21.74% | 21.6% | 8.8% | 2.08 | 28.8% |
| Robbie Ray | ARI | LAD | 192.2 | 4.62 | 3.6 | 1.44 | 28.13% | 28.4% | 9.7% | 1.21 | 45.3% |
| Antonio Senzatela | COL | SFG | 19 | 2.37 | 3.72 | 0.95 | 18.9% | 5.4% | 0.47 | 45.5% | |
| Jered Weaver | SDP | MIA | 195 | 4.98 | 5.31 | 1.43 | 35.48% | 13.5% | 6.5% | 1.94 | 30.3% |
| Tyler Skaggs | LAA | TOR | 67 | 4.43 | 4.2 | 1.46 | 30.00% | 23.4% | 10.2% | 1.07 | 39.3% |
ALL-IN:
The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.
Carlos Carrasco CLE (at CHW, $10900) – Carrasco typically falls a bit shy of All-In status, but the complete dearth of elite options on the evening slate puts Carlos in charge of the pitcher pool tonight. Carrasco has been stingy with opponent runs in his first few starts of the season, logging a 2.33 ERA through 19.1 innings, during which he built his per-game workloads up from 77 pitches in his first start to the 102 tosses in his last. The individual games have been remarkably similar, including one homer allowed in each of the three contests, though one outlier from Carrasco’s most recent outing was “5” in his walks column for the game. Assuming that was just a blip on the radar, Carrasco is easily the best bet on the board for tonight’s slate.
RAISE:
The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.
Jerad Eickhoff PHI (vs. ATL, $8300) – Owner of one of the best curveballs around, Eickhoff has quietly put together a solid career thus far, with 268.0 innings of 3.39-ERA baseball over the past two-plus seasons. The K-count is unlikely to be exciting, but Eickhoff keeps free passes to a minimum and runs off the scoreboard, a task that should be a bit easier today considering the weak offense of the Braves. The Atlanta lineup has been replenished by the return of Matt Kemp, but even with Kemp in tow this is a bottom-third offense that is heavily reliant on the middle-order bats to do damage. On a thin slate that lacks top-end options, facing a weak opponent at home at a reasonable salary carries a lot of value.
Robbie Ray ARI (vs. LAD, $8600) – There is considerable downside to playing Ray today, but the strikeout upside is undeniable and he carries the platoon advantage against potent Dodger bats Corey Seager, Adrian Gonzalez and Joc Pederson. His allure towards true outcomes has been even stronger this season in the past, with an MLB-leading 12 walks allowed to go with 24 strikeouts in just 18.1 innings this season, good for marks of 5.9 BB/9 and 11.8 K/9 that are even higher than last season’s lofty marks in those two categories. He’s only given up 10 hits over that stretch, and Ray’s ability to put goose eggs on the scoreboard is largely dependent on his ability to avoid hard contact, lest the baserunners that he allows a free ride on the basepaths become a threat to score.
Lance Lynn STL (at MIL, $6000) – The low-slot right-hander has consistently posted a worse-than-average walk rate throughout his career, though he has stayed between 3.0-3.5 BB/9 in each campaign. His command outpaces the walk numbers, as the high degree of variation on the lateral location of his pitches makes it tougher for him to generate strikes on missed targets, though that same attribute keeps the ball away from batter strengths and has contributed to a consistently-low home run rate over the years. The longballs have been more plentiful in the early-going this season, as Lynn has already coughed up three bombs in 17.1 innings (1.6 HR/9) after allowing 13-to-16 homers in 175+ innings in each of his four full seasons (0.6-0.8 HR/9). He’s long been a bit overrated, but at this cost he can go ahead and pitch five to six mediocre frames and still turn a profit. Playing the Brewers raises the odds of a homer or two leaving the yard, but it also raises Lynn’s prospective K count on a day that presents a tremendous value opportunity.
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | Team | Opp | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | SIERA | BABIP | FIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Arrieta | CHC | CIN | 0.278 | 3.03 | 0.248 | 3.12 | 0.192 | 3.87 | 0.238 | 3.54 |
| Matt Boyd | DET | MIN | 0.264 | 3.15 | 0.338 | 4.71 | 0.254 | 4.45 | 0.286 | 4.65 |
| Ariel Miranda | SEA | OAK | 0.36 | 3.07 | 0.293 | 3.84 | 0.224 | 4.55 | 0.231 | 5.09 |
| Gio Gonzalez | WAS | NYM | 0.277 | 4.25 | 0.323 | 4.23 | 0.255 | 3.95 | 0.311 | 3.74 |
| Michael Pineda | NYY | PIT | 0.342 | 3.92 | 0.319 | 5.28 | 0.261 | 3.27 | 0.336 | 3.69 |
| Charlie Morton | HOU | TBR | 0.31 | 3.21 | 0.307 | 3.72 | 0.25 | 3.86 | 0.319 | 3.33 |
| Jaime Garcia | ATL | PHI | 0.289 | 2.72 | 0.348 | 5.18 | 0.264 | 4.08 | 0.299 | 4.64 |
| Steven Wright | BOS | BAL | 0.285 | 3.39 | 0.325 | 4 | 0.248 | 4.56 | 0.291 | 4.08 |
| Lance Lynn | STL | MIL | 0.331 | 4.32 | 0.244 | 2 | 0.197 | 4.34 | 0.2 | 5.05 |
| Carlos Carrasco | CLE | CHW | 0.315 | 2.68 | 0.287 | 3.63 | 0.232 | 3.43 | 0.28 | 3.76 |
| Ian Kennedy | KCR | TEX | 0.303 | 3.66 | 0.309 | 3.46 | 0.229 | 4.25 | 0.264 | 4.52 |
| Kenta Maeda | LAD | ARI | 0.32 | 3.61 | 0.255 | 3.87 | 0.231 | 3.69 | 0.285 | 3.65 |
| Matt Moore | SFG | COL | 0.287 | 4.93 | 0.312 | 3.86 | 0.244 | 4.39 | 0.287 | 4.14 |
| Dan Straily | MIA | SDP | 0.295 | 4.19 | 0.317 | 3.51 | 0.216 | 4.72 | 0.236 | 4.92 |
| Casey Lawrence | TOR | LAA | 0.438 | 9 | 0.488 | 18 | 0.333 | 9.53 | 0.429 | 8.41 |
| Cody Reed | CIN | CHC | 0.321 | 6.75 | 0.395 | 6.18 | 0.294 | 4.14 | 0.333 | 5.54 |
| Adalberto Mejia | MIN | DET | 1.06 | 0 | 0.365 | 5 | 0.306 | 6.37 | 0.344 | 4.42 |
| Jharel Cotton | OAK | SEA | 0.227 | 2.61 | 0.279 | 3.91 | 0.205 | 4.32 | 0.237 | 3.48 |
| Jacob deGrom | NYM | WAS | 0.263 | 2.34 | 0.318 | 3.55 | 0.243 | 3.52 | 0.304 | 3.24 |
| Jameson Taillon | PIT | NYY | 0.306 | 2.35 | 0.287 | 3.59 | 0.245 | 3.61 | 0.285 | 3.63 |
| Blake Snell | TBR | HOU | 0.295 | 2.08 | 0.319 | 3.76 | 0.255 | 4.66 | 0.333 | 3.52 |
| Jerad Eickhoff | PHI | ATL | 0.346 | 4.03 | 0.269 | 3.06 | 0.243 | 4.03 | 0.276 | 4.17 |
| Jayson Aquino | BAL | BOS | 0.146 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.125 | 2.32 | 0.2 | 0.58 |
| Chase Anderson | MIL | STL | 0.287 | 3.67 | 0.377 | 4.42 | 0.256 | 4.58 | 0.284 | 4.84 |
| James Shields | CHW | CLE | 0.368 | 4.33 | 0.37 | 6.57 | 0.274 | 5.09 | 0.291 | 5.94 |
| A.J. Griffin | TEX | KCR | 0.4 | 5.78 | 0.293 | 4.25 | 0.245 | 4.5 | 0.263 | 5.58 |
| Robbie Ray | ARI | LAD | 0.287 | 4.56 | 0.338 | 4.65 | 0.256 | 3.6 | 0.341 | 3.75 |
| Antonio Senzatela | COL | SFG | 0.311 | 1.17 | 0.234 | 3.18 | 0.203 | 3.72 | 0.241 | 2.91 |
| Jered Weaver | SDP | MIA | 0.368 | |||||||
| Tyler Skaggs | LAA | TOR |
CALL:
Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.
Ian Kennedy KC (at TEX, $7500) – Kennedy is coming off of a gem against the Angels, with 10 strikeouts against just four baserunners in 8.0 scoreless frames. IPK got through the eight frames on a modest 111 pitches, the third consecutive contest that he made at least 95 throws. His first start of the season was a five-walk adventure that only last 5.0 frames, but Kennedy hasn’t allowed more than three runs in any start this season, has kept the ball in the yard, is coming off of consecutive quality starts and has struck out a batter per inning this season. He’ll benefit from the absence of Adrian Beltre from the Rangers lineup, though Joey Gallo – Beltre’s replacement at third base – has been keeping things interesting with five homers (including two bombs yesterday) in Beltre’s stead.
Chase Anderson MIL (vs. STL, $5700) – Anderson has a mundane profile, with a standard three-pitch approach and low-90s velocity, he fits right in with the no.4 starters of the world. He has started out on the right foot in 2017, with a 1.50 ERA and 2-0 record in his first three starts. The difference is that Anderson has started highlighting his cutter, a two-percent pitch prior to this season that has made up more than 15.5 percent of his offerings this season, with opponents going 0-for-8 with a walk in plate appearances that end on the cut fastball. The samples are still too small to determine whether Anderson can convert his redesigned approach to long-term results, but he might be worth the gamble in two-pitcher leagues given the low price tag.
Dan Straily MIA (at SD, $7800) – For some reason, opposing batters just don’t stack up hits against Straily, whose peripheral stats leave much to be desired in all three categories of true outcomes. He’s given up just 7.7 H/9 in his career thanks to a .255 BABiP over 465.1 innings of work at the highest level. He’s a flyball pitcher whose tendencies leave him vulnerable to the home run, but his efforts today will be aided by the light-hitting San Diego offense as well as the marine layer that tends to keep baseballs in the yard.
Kenta Maeda LAD (at ARI, $9000) – It’s easy to forgive any pitcher’s transgressions at altitude, so the four runs that Maeda surrendered in five innings at Coors Field can be forgiven, but his sea-level starts have all had that same thin-air result. He hasn’t gone deeper than five innings or 83 pitches in any of his three starts this season, while his run prevention has also been lacking, with a composite ERA of 7.07 over his first 14.0 innings of work. With such a short leash, it will be very difficult for Maeda to turn out an impressive point total even if he rights the ship of run prevention, and that’s before getting into the difficulty of pitching at Chase Field or the outrageous price tag. Hard pass.
Jaime Garcia ATL (at PHI, $6800)
Antonio Senzatela COL (vs. SF, $4100) – Ok, so Coors Field is a death knell and all, but $4100 is a very low salary for any starter with any context, let alone one who sits in the mid-high 90s with his fastball and who spun a quality start with just two earned runs allowed over 7.0 frames in his first start at altitude. That price means that you can afford to load up on his teammates against Matt Moore, particularly the right-handed bats. Senzatela is literally half the price of Tyler Skaggs.
Jayson Aquino BAL (vs. BOS, $4000) – Aquino has been an effective starter in the minor leagues, compiling a 3.09 ERA and a K/BB better than 3.0 in 728.1 innings in the minors. He has youth on his side, playing his age-24 season, but Aquino missed the boat on the Orioles’ top 10 prospects and his experience in the show might be short-lived.
Tyler Skaggs LAA (vs. TOR, $8200) – I do not like green Skaggs and ham. I do not like him, Sam I Am. I won’t play him in a box, I won’t play him with a fox; I will not play him for a mouse, I will not play him in my house; I will not play him here or there, I will not play him anywhere. Not even against Toronto, not when the price is over $8000.
Nick Martinez TEX (vs. KC, $4000)
FOLD:
Run away. Do Not Pass Go. Do Not Collect $200. Consider stacking with opposing lineups.
Steven Wright BOS (at BAL, $6200)
Jered Weaver SD (vs. MIA, $6400)
Matt Moore SF (at COL, $5800)
Casey Lawrence TOR (at LAA, $4500) – A career minor-leaguer with nearly 1000 innings pitched in the bush leagues, Lawrence steps in to make his first major-league start. The 29-year-old is an unlikely source of fantasy points, given his career ERA of 3.82 in the minors and just 5.9 K/9, but the control artist should keep the walks at bay.
Starting Pitcher Salaries
Click the image below to view pitcher salaries by each daily fantasy site along with their percent of top statistics.
- Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if “”(player-popup)Felix Hernandez”:/players/felix-hernandez-10954(player-profile)”:/fantasyplayers/Felix_Hernandez-10954 is $9,000 on FanDuel and “”(player-popup)Justin Verlander”:/players/justin-verlander-10908(player-profile)”:/fantasyplayers/Justin_Verlander-10908 is $4,500, Verlanders Top stat would be 50.
NOTE: Button for pitcher salary chart above opens in popup window