Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Wednesday, April 5th
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find a needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
(Salaries in the parentheses are from DraftKings)
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | Team | Opp | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ian Kennedy | KCR | MIN | 195.2 | 3.68 | 4.27 | 1.22 | 42.42% | 22.5% | 8.1% | 1.52 | 33.2% |
| John Lackey | CHC | STL | 188.1 | 3.35 | 3.83 | 1.06 | 55.17% | 24.1% | 7.1% | 1.10 | 41.0% |
| Jordan Zimmermann | DET | CHW | 105.1 | 4.87 | 4.81 | 1.37 | 33.33% | 14.7% | 5.8% | 1.20 | 43.1% |
| J.A. Happ | TOR | BAL | 195 | 3.18 | 4.28 | 1.17 | 53.13% | 20.5% | 7.5% | 1.02 | 42.5% |
| Dan Straily | MIA | WAS | 191.1 | 3.76 | 4.67 | 1.19 | 45.16% | 20.5% | 9.2% | 1.46 | 32.0% |
| Bartolo Colon | ATL | NYM | 191.2 | 3.43 | 4.37 | 1.21 | 48.48% | 16.2% | 4.1% | 1.13 | 43.2% |
| Michael Pineda | NYY | TBR | 175.2 | 4.82 | 3.4 | 1.35 | 28.13% | 27.4% | 7.0% | 1.38 | 45.8% |
| Jameson Taillon | PIT | BOS | 104 | 3.38 | 3.61 | 1.12 | 50.00% | 20.3% | 4.1% | 1.13 | 52.4% |
| Jerad Eickhoff | PHI | CIN | 197.1 | 3.65 | 4.05 | 1.16 | 42.42% | 20.6% | 5.2% | 1.37 | 40.7% |
| Danny Salazar | CLE | TEX | 137.1 | 3.87 | 3.86 | 1.34 | 40.00% | 27.6% | 10.8% | 1.05 | 47.8% |
| James Paxton | SEA | HOU | 121 | 3.79 | 3.54 | 1.31 | 45.00% | 22.9% | 4.7% | 0.67 | 48.1% |
| Tyler Chatwood | COL | MIL | 158 | 3.87 | 4.62 | 1.37 | 44.44% | 17.5% | 10.5% | 0.85 | 57.2% |
| Matt Moore | SFG | ARI | 198.1 | 4.08 | 4.39 | 1.29 | 45.45% | 21.2% | 8.6% | 1.13 | 38.2% |
| Garrett Richards | LAA | OAK | 34.2 | 2.34 | 4.22 | 1.33 | 66.67% | 23.0% | 10.1% | 0.52 | 45.8% |
| Trevor Cahill | SDP | LAD | 65.2 | 2.74 | 3.93 | 1.28 | 23.2% | 12.3% | 0.96 | 56.6% | |
| Hector Santiago | MIN | KCR | 182 | 4.7 | 5.07 | 1.36 | 36.36% | 18.3% | 10.1% | 1.63 | 34.1% |
| Lance Lynn | STL | CHC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 0.0% | |
| James Shields | CHW | DET | 181.2 | 5.85 | 5.12 | 1.6 | 45.45% | 16.4% | 10.0% | 1.98 | 40.4% |
| Dylan Bundy | BAL | TOR | 109.2 | 4.02 | 4.23 | 1.38 | 21.43% | 21.9% | 8.9% | 1.48 | 35.9% |
| Tanner Roark | WAS | MIA | 210 | 2.83 | 4.32 | 1.17 | 54.55% | 20.1% | 8.5% | 0.73 | 48.7% |
| Jacob deGrom | NYM | ATL | 148 | 3.04 | 3.66 | 1.2 | 54.17% | 23.7% | 6.0% | 0.91 | 45.6% |
| Alex Cobb | TBR | NYY | 22 | 8.59 | 4.5 | 1.77 | 20.00% | 15.4% | 6.7% | 2.05 | 52.5% |
| Chris Sale | BOS | PIT | 226.2 | 3.34 | 3.43 | 1.04 | 53.13% | 25.7% | 5.0% | 1.07 | 41.2% |
| Brandon Finnegan | CIN | PHI | 172 | 3.98 | 4.92 | 1.36 | 35.48% | 19.8% | 11.4% | 1.52 | 38.1% |
| Cole Hamels | TEX | CLE | 200.2 | 3.32 | 3.99 | 1.31 | 56.25% | 23.6% | 9.1% | 1.08 | 49.6% |
| Charlie Morton | HOU | SEA | 17.1 | 4.15 | 3.56 | 1.33 | 50.00% | 26.8% | 11.3% | 0.52 | 62.8% |
| Wily Peralta | MIL | COL | 127.2 | 4.86 | 4.51 | 1.53 | 30.43% | 16.8% | 7.8% | 1.34 | 50.0% |
| Taijuan Walker | ARI | SFG | 134.1 | 4.22 | 4.13 | 1.24 | 36.00% | 20.8% | 6.5% | 1.81 | 44.1% |
| Jharel Cotton | OAK | LAA | 29.1 | 2.15 | 4.02 | 0.82 | 60.00% | 20.5% | 3.6% | 1.23 | 37.6% |
| Rich Hill | LAD | SDP | 110.1 | 2.12 | 3.29 | 1 | 63.16% | 29.4% | 7.5% | 0.33 | 45.3% |
ALL-IN:
The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.
Chris Sale BOS (vs. PIT, $11200) – In yesterday’s breakdown, I referred to Jake Arrieta as the “best no.2 starter in the game,” but clearly I forgot this guy, who ceded the top billing in the Red Sox rotation to reigning Cy Young champ Rick Porcello, though in this case there is little debate as to the superior pitcher in DFS. Sale takes the hill for the first time for his new club, and though a revamped approach lowered his strikeout ceiling last season, he might opt to revert back to his high-K ways with his new club, though the fact that his run prevention remained the same while Sale was able to go a bit deeper into ballgames might encourage him to keep last year’s approach intact. Even with the lower-K approach the sidewinding lefty managed more than a strikeout per inning while retaining the same sub-2.0 BB/9 walk rate as has become his norm over the last four seasons. High floor, high ceiling, there is little reason to cast Sale aside in today’s matchup.
RAISE:
The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.
Jacob DeGrom NYM (vs. ATL, $10600) – The right-handed suffered from an issue to ulnar nerve in his pitching elbow last season, an ailment that gave me pause when ranking him for full season fantasy leagues, but a stellar spring performance (2.93 ERA, 17:2 K:BB in 15.1 innings) and reports of his full arsenal being at his disposal have raised the roof of expectations. The concern of re-injury is lessened in DFS, allowing us to focus on his matchup with the rebuilding Braves. Atlanta generally puts the ball in play against right-handed pitchers, shrinking deGrom’s projected K count and putting the onus on the Mets’ defense.
Cole Hamels TEX (vs. CLE, $8700) – Hamels is a solid option whose consistency has been impeccable, including a seven-year run of at least 200 innings and 194 strikeouts to go with an ERA south of 3.70 in each season. The walk rate mysteriously spiked last season but the rest of his stat-line remained intact, as occasional lapses in mechanical balance interfered with his pitch command at times, but Hamels is a student of the game who surely worked to correct any mechanical flaws in the offseason. He gets an Indians team that is playing shorthanded due to injuries, and the price tag on Hamels leaves potential room for profit.
Rich Hill LAD (vs. SD, $10800) – On a per-inning basis, Hill was one of the top arms in baseball last season, but questions linger about his workload. Last seasons 110 innings were his most at the major-league level since 2007, but ongoing blister problems kept him out of action following a midseason trade to the Dodgers. His full-season innings count is not much of a concern for the DFS gamer, but the fact that the Dodgers kept him under 90 pitches in five of his six starts for them is a worry (the other start involved just 93 throws). The Dodgers may have been taking it easy with Hill as they prepped for the playoffs, and the A’s let Hill go past the 100-pitch mark in nine of his 12 starts with them, so there is reason to believe that he will be given a longer leash in games this season. However, pitchers are typically pulled early in their first starts of the year and the Dodgers are likely to do the same today with Hill, but facing the soft lineup of the Padres might allow him to carve up six or more frames without breaking a sweat. The price is a bit high, such that a short outing could kill his profit margin, so strikeouts will be at a premium against a San Diego club that likes to hand them out like candy on Halloween.
Taijuan Walker ARI (vs. SF, $7500) – Walker makes the Raise group due to the combination of upside, stellar spring performance and a very modest price that gives him wiggle room tonight against the Giants. Last season, Walker posted a 23:4 K:BB ratio in 22.0 spring innings, then went out and had an excellent first month of the regular season, tallying a 1.44 ERA through his first four starts and tossing in an 11-K game to boot. He upped the ante this past spring, with an incredible 32:2 K:BB in 27.1 frames for his new ballclub, and this ranking considers that performance as a positive indicator of what we can expect out of the gate in 2017.
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | Team | Opp | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | SIERA | BABIP | FIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ian Kennedy | KCR | MIN | 0.307 | 3.81 | 0.318 | 3.54 | 0.234 | 4.27 | 0.268 | 4.67 |
| John Lackey | CHC | STL | 0.303 | 3.42 | 0.264 | 3.29 | 0.213 | 3.83 | 0.255 | 3.81 |
| Jordan Zimmermann | DET | CHW | 0.31 | 5.26 | 0.367 | 4.47 | 0.28 | 4.81 | 0.304 | 4.42 |
| J.A. Happ | TOR | BAL | 0.287 | 4.12 | 0.292 | 2.95 | 0.23 | 4.28 | 0.268 | 3.96 |
| Dan Straily | MIA | WAS | 0.29 | 3.87 | 0.322 | 3.67 | 0.218 | 4.67 | 0.239 | 4.88 |
| Bartolo Colon | ATL | NYM | 0.335 | 4.01 | 0.286 | 2.87 | 0.265 | 4.37 | 0.291 | 3.99 |
| Michael Pineda | NYY | TBR | 0.343 | 3.87 | 0.328 | 5.55 | 0.264 | 3.4 | 0.339 | 3.8 |
| Jameson Taillon | PIT | BOS | 0.314 | 2.82 | 0.285 | 3.91 | 0.249 | 3.61 | 0.287 | 3.71 |
| Jerad Eickhoff | PHI | CIN | 0.347 | 4.15 | 0.273 | 3.12 | 0.246 | 4.05 | 0.278 | 4.19 |
| Danny Salazar | CLE | TEX | 0.273 | 3.64 | 0.33 | 4.07 | 0.233 | 3.86 | 0.307 | 3.74 |
| James Paxton | SEA | HOU | 0.319 | 2.37 | 0.303 | 4.06 | 0.276 | 3.54 | 0.347 | 2.8 |
| Tyler Chatwood | COL | MIL | 0.328 | 4.44 | 0.304 | 3.27 | 0.247 | 4.62 | 0.286 | 4.32 |
| Matt Moore | SFG | ARI | 0.287 | 4.76 | 0.309 | 3.88 | 0.242 | 4.39 | 0.285 | 4.17 |
| Garrett Richards | LAA | OAK | 0.222 | 2 | 0.367 | 2.7 | 0.235 | 4.22 | 0.302 | 3.32 |
| Trevor Cahill | SDP | LAD | 0.291 | 2.73 | 0.272 | 2.75 | 0.201 | 3.93 | 0.246 | 4.35 |
| Hector Santiago | MIN | KCR | 0.33 | 4.3 | 0.333 | 4.8 | 0.241 | 5.07 | 0.26 | 5.31 |
| Lance Lynn | STL | CHC | 0 | 0 | 0.514 | 16.03 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| James Shields | CHW | DET | 0.37 | 4.52 | 0.384 | 7.09 | 0.284 | 5.12 | 0.302 | 6.01 |
| Dylan Bundy | BAL | TOR | 0.323 | 3.97 | 0.336 | 4.09 | 0.256 | 4.23 | 0.299 | 4.7 |
| Tanner Roark | WAS | MIA | 0.281 | 2.11 | 0.283 | 3.47 | 0.225 | 4.32 | 0.269 | 3.79 |
| Jacob deGrom | NYM | ATL | 0.273 | 2.42 | 0.323 | 3.73 | 0.251 | 3.66 | 0.312 | 3.32 |
| Alex Cobb | TBR | NYY | 0 | 0 | 0.316 | 7.3 | 0.33 | 4.5 | 0.355 | 5.6 |
| Chris Sale | BOS | PIT | 0.254 | 3.28 | 0.287 | 3.35 | 0.225 | 3.43 | 0.279 | 3.46 |
| Brandon Finnegan | CIN | PHI | 0.288 | 1.62 | 0.334 | 4.67 | 0.232 | 4.92 | 0.256 | 5.19 |
| Cole Hamels | TEX | CLE | 0.271 | 3.1 | 0.316 | 3.38 | 0.242 | 3.99 | 0.299 | 3.98 |
| Charlie Morton | HOU | SEA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.238 | 3.56 | 0.326 | 3.09 |
| Wily Peralta | MIL | COL | 0.374 | 4.74 | 0.357 | 4.98 | 0.299 | 4.51 | 0.336 | 4.71 |
| Taijuan Walker | ARI | SFG | 0.305 | 4.26 | 0.345 | 4.19 | 0.244 | 4.13 | 0.267 | 4.99 |
| Jharel Cotton | OAK | LAA | 0.2 | |||||||
| Rich Hill | LAD | SDP |
CALL:
Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.
Danny Salazar CLE (at TEX, $8100) – Salazar can be maddening, at any given moment showing the delivery, stuff and performance to dream of big things, only to be followed by a an unstable outing with a delivery that has unraveled, little command of the baseball and the run-heavy stat-line to match. Today he gets saddled with facing a Texas lineup that has several moving parts yet seems to have able replacements at every spot in the order, giving Salazar little breathing room despite the absence of Adrian Beltre (his replacement, Joey Gallo, homered yesterday). His bat-missing stuff was on full display this spring, generating an incredible count of 37 strikeouts in 26.0 frames, but his inconsistency was revealed by the 14 walks and 4.85 ERA that was put up against inferior competition. Spring stats carry all sorts of caveats, but the combination of a tough opponent in a hitter-friendly venue will make it tough for the right-hander to earn his salary.
Tanner Roark WAS (vs. MIA, $8200) – Roark is not a strikeout maven, but his contributions have been otherwise solid across the board. The peripheral stats leave something to be desired, with a below-average walk rate to go with the pedestrian frequency of strikeouts, though that walk rate was an outlier in a career that has been generally avoidant of the free pass. Many have been hand-waving his subpar performance of 2015, in which his home run rate doubled and the hits dropped at a one-per-inning frequency, as Roark was pitching out of the bullpen that season but was a 2.85-ERA pitcher in both ‘14 and ‘16 when the Nats left him in the rotation. I’m not so quick to dismiss his rough campaign, as the main thing keeping his numbers afloat last season was a very low hit rate, accomplished on the shoulders of a .274 BABiP that is likely to regress. Facing the Marlins today will help to provide a buffer, but Roark is better represented by a high floor of expected performance than a high ceiling.
Michael Pineda NYY (at TB, $8400) – Pineda is a sabermetric favorite, with exceptional rates for walks and strikeouts (he led the American League with 10.6 K/9 last season), with an excellent K/BB last season of 3.9 that left people scratching their heads as to why he gets lit so often. That figure was actually half of what it had been in previous seasons due to a walk rate that skyrocketed, but copious amounts of runs crossed the plate on his watch in both the low-walk season of 2015 and the high-walk season of last year. His fastball is eminently hittable, and a lack of command that was previously masked by a low walk rate was exposed last season, revealing a pitcher whose missed targets within the strike zone result in a high frequency of hard-hit baseballs. The indications from his final spring tuneup indicate that “the Pinata” is full of candy and ready to give out treats to opposing hitters at the start of this season.
Jerad Eickhoff PHI (at CIN, $7400)
Garrett Richards LAA (at OAK, $7100) – Richards is throwing hard this spring, causing him to race up the draft boards in the anticipation of what the right-hander can do in his return from Tommy John surgery. The issue is that Richards has always thrown hard, but his numbers have typically been subpar because he lacks pitch command, an element which is likely to resurface given that command is typically the last thing to come back for pitchers with elbow woes. He led the majors in wild pitches in both 2014 and ‘15, uncorking 39 errant throws across the two seasons, and for a pitcher with such high-octane gas he has never struck out more than a batter-per-inning. The key to his success was being “effectively wild,” with low hit rates and a penchant for keeping the ball in the yard. The Angels may take it especially easy on Richards as he makes his first major-league start since surgery, and run prevention might be the most trustworthy element of his profile tonight against the light-hitting A’s.
Jharel Cotton OAK (vs. LAA, $7800)
James Paxton SEA (at HOU, $6900) – Perhaps no pitcher saw his stock soar more this spring than James Paxton, the southpaw with the odd delivery whose high-90s fastballs inspire optimism. He actually made some adjustments to his unorthodox mechanics last season, lowering a glove hand that used to point to the sky during his stride, an element which helped him to find a more consistent trigger and release point. However, even with the stellar stuff and the mechanical improvements, Paxton gave up a ludicrous 10.0 H/9 last season while striking out less than a batter per inning, meaning that the excitement surrounding his prospective performance is based on all hope and little reality. Perhaps he makes the Giant leaps necessary to improve upon last season’s 3.79 ERA and 1.31 WHIP, and perhaps the stats finally catch up to the stuff, but personally I’d rather see it happen before paying the price tag. Facing the deep lineup of the Astros will be a difficult test.
Jameson Taillon PIT (at BOS. $6400) – The young Taillon catches a tough assignment for his first test of the year, traveling to Fenway to face the heavy-hitting Red Sox. The Sawx are down one David Ortiz when compared to last season, and it’s possible that their offense is being overrated a bit in the early-going of 2017, as the price tag on Taillon is very low and he can turn a profit with even a mediocre outing. Taillon was an interesting case last season, converting what had been high rates of strikeouts and walks into low frequencies of both, all while completing his comeback from Tommy John surgery. Time will tell whether one or both of those rates will come back up this season, or if the young Taillon continues to modify his approach, but the volatility that results from such uncertainty makes him an interesting play tonight in large-scale tournaments.
Matt Moore SF (at ARI, $7200)
Dylan Bundy (vs. TOR, $6800)
J.A. Happ TOR (at BAL, $7000)
Bartolo Colon ATL (at NYM, $6700)
Alex Cobb TB (vs. NYY. $7600)
Brandon Finnegan CIN (vs. PHI, $6500)
Dan Straily MIA (vs. WAS, $6600)
Tyler Chatwood (at MIL, $5900)
FOLD:
Run away. Do Not Pass Go. Do Not Collect $200. Consider stacking with opposing lineups.
Charlie Morton HOU (vs. SEA, $6100)
Wily Peralta MIL (vs. COL, $5100)
Trevor Cahill SD (at LAD, $4400)