MLB GPP Plays: Tuesday, August 11th
GPPs are very different from your cash games and you use a different strategy with them. In our GPPs we are not interested in safe plays, since GPPs are all about UPSIDE. We want players who can explode, as all-or-nothing type players can become GPP gold, and your value players are just as important as your star players. You need your players to have huge nights in order to take down these big tournaments.
My goal is to provide players who will be under-owned and/or have that big game upside you are looking for. I will also try to find as much value as I possibly can. Now, let’s get to the MLB GPP plays!
STARTING PITCHER
Matt Harvey, New York Mets – If I am paying up for ace this evening, I am rolling out Matt Harvey against the Colorado Rockies. Harvey was extremely sharp in his last two starts (14.2 IP, 1 ER, 15 Ks) and he comes into this game as a -240 favorite, with a low run total of seven. Even with his issues returning from Tommy John surgery neither lefties (.226 BAA) nor righties (.204 BAA) are hitting him. The Rockies can be a scary offense when they make contact, but they have been striking out a ton (26%) in the last month. Look for another strong performance from Harvey in this one, with the potential for double-digit whiffs.
Taijuan Walker, Seattle Mariners – Taijuan Walker is exactly what you are looking for in a value GPP play, with the ability to dominate any team and rack up the strikeouts (8.79 K/9) along the way. The Baltimore Orioles have some serious thump in their lineup, but they have struggled on the road this year and they strike out at a 22.2% clip (2nd most in the AL) versus right-handed pitching. Walker has tremendous upside and he makes a great roll of the dice tonight in your tournaments
Other Pitchers to Target – Carlos Martinez, Carlos Carrasco, Taylor Jungmann, Luis Severino
CATCHER
Yasmani Grandal, Los Angeles Dodgers – Joe Ross has pitched very well in his short Major League career and I am certainly not looking to pick on him. However, if we dig a little deeper, we see that lefties have actually hit him quite well (.297 BA, .375 wOBA) and of the 22 hits he has allowed to left-handed batters this season, 10 have been for extra bases (six doubles, four homers). Grandal has crushed righties in 2015 (.391 wOBA) and I doubt he will be highly owned in tournaments.
Travis d’Arnaud, New York Mets – Right-handed hitters have had their way with Colorado Rockies lefty Chris Rusin at both the Minor League (.350 BAA) and Major League levels (.305 BAA, .356 wOBA). Travis d’Arnaud looked great at the plate last night (two hits, including a home run) and when he has been on the field, he has been very productive against southpaws.
Other Catchers to Target – Kyle Schwarber, Welington Castillo, Stephen Vogt
FIRST BASE
Paul Goldschmidt, Arizona Diamondbacks – If you can afford him, Goldschmidt is easily the top upside play at first base this evening. Goldy is pretty good at hitting the baseball and he will face gas can David Buchanan (7.23 ERA, 1.75 WHIP, .328 BAA) tonight in a great hitting environment. Buchanan has allowed a .362 wOBA to right-handed batters this season and Goldschmidt has hammered righties in 2015 (.325 BA, .410 wOBA).
James Loney, Tampa Bay Rays – If you are loaded elsewhere and need to find some savings at first base, Loney is a solid option. Atlanta Braves starter Williams Perez is a guy we should be picking on, especially with lefties (.303 BAA, .397 OBPA, .378 wOBA). Loney lacks home run upside, but he is certainly capable of a multi-hit game and at the very least he should see some RBI opportunities in the middle of the Rays order.
Other First Basemen to Target – Anthony Rizzo, Adam Lind, Ryan Howard, Justin Smoak
SECOND BASE
Brian Dozier, Minnesota Twins – Dozier is one of the guys I target the most at the keystone position in my GPPs. He contributes across the board offensively, doing damage with both his bat and his legs. Yovani Gallardo has been hit hard in four consecutive starts (18 ER in his last 19 IP) and Dozier has hit him well (5-7 with a homer and four RBIs), in a small sample size. Dozier is reasonably priced on most sites and he has as much upside as any second baseman tonight.
Chase Utley, Philadelphia Phillies – Utley has base knocks in four straight games, including three doubles and three runs batted in. Jeremy Hellickson was roughed up in his last two outings, allowing 10 earned runs (8 IP) and four long-balls. Hell Boy has had a tough season in Arizona (5.06 ERA, 1.38 WHIP) and lefties have done most of the damage against him (.290 BA, .363 wOBA). Hitting in the lead-off spot, Utley makes a great value play tonight.
Other Second Basemen to Target – Jose Altuve, Robinson Cano, Dee Gordon, Scooter Gennett
THIRD BASE
Jake Lamb, Arizona Diamondbacks – Lamb was a popular value bat last night and I expect him to be just as popular tonight. Lamb should once again be hitting in a decent lineup spot and with his price across the industry and the fact that he is facing whipping boy David Buchanan, he is the best bang for your buck at the hot corner tonight.
Danny Valencia, Oakland A’s – Valencia has done nothing but hit since becoming a member of the Oakland Athletics. He has hit safely in all four of his games with the A’s, including three straight multi-hit performances. During this hot streak, he has hit for power as well, with two doubles, two bombs and five runs batted in. With “(player-popup)Drew Hutchison”:/players/drew-hutchison-13431’s recent struggles and season long reverse splits (.326 BAA, .384 wOBA to righties), Valencia should be in for a big game in his return to Toronto.
Other Third Basemen to Target – Josh Donaldson, Miguel Sano, Evan Longoria, Derek Dietrich
SHORTSTOP
Troy Tulowitzki, Colorado Rockies – Tulowitzki has been beast for the Blue Jays and he should once again be heavily involved in their offensive attack tonight against Kendall Graveman. Toronto is the top rated offense tonight and they lit Graveman up (5.1 IP, 6 ER, 3 HR) the last time they faced him. When it comes to upside, no other shortstop can match Tulo.
Jhonny Peralta, St. Louis Cardinals – With his cheap price on most sites, it will be hard to avoid Peralta tonight. Even though he will be very popular, I still think we need some exposure to him. He has home run upside and he allows us to significantly upgrade another position or two with his low cost. Peralta loves to hit off of southpaws (.341 wOBA) and Jeff Locke has allowed a .356 wOBA to right-handed batters on the road this year.
Other Shortstops to Target – Xander Bogaerts, Alcides Escobar, Asdrubal Cabrera
OUTFIELD
Justin Upton, San Diego Padres – Upton is swinging a hot bat and he has now homered in back-to-back games. Michael Lorenzen continues to get smacked around by Major League hitters and Upton has been dynamite against right-handed pitching this season (.364 wOBA with 10 doubles, 18 home runs and 55 RBIs).
Josh Reddick, Oakland A’s – Drew Hutchison has been a disaster of late allowing 22 earned runs in his last six starts (29.2 IP). Both lefties and righties are hitting him hard these days and I think we see more of the same tonight. Reddick has hit extremely well at the Rogers Centre in his career, posting a .333 batting average (.400 OBP, 1.289 OPS) with four doubles, seven home runs and 13 RBIs in just 13 games. Reddick is inexpensive across the industry and he provides multi-homer run upside.
Yasmany Tomas, Arizona Diamondbacks – ALL the Diamondbacks! Tomas has five multi-hit games in his past 10 contests and he has been a better hitter versus right-handed pitching (.305 BA, .330 wOBA). Like Josh Reddick above, Tomas is a cheap source of power.
Other Outfielders to Target – Jose Bautista, A.J. Pollock, Hanley Ramirez, Gregory Polanco, Grady Sizemore, Coco Crisp